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Combining Spectroscopic and Imaging Galaxy Surveys for Improved Measurements of Large-Scale Structure

Galaxy imaging surveys represent a promising opportunity for testing cosmological models but suffer from significant challenges associated with galaxy redshift uncertainty. I present improved techniques for the use of spectroscopic redshifts for measurements of large-scale structure with galaxy imaging surveys. I additionally present the results of the application of these techniques to data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Dark Energy Survey (DES). The results of my work are photometric redshift measurements of the approximately 100 million galaxies comprising the the DES Year 3 Weak Lensing Source Galaxy Catalog, constraints on parameters of the Lambda-CDM cosmological model based on the gravitational lensing and clustering of the DES Year 3 source and lens galaxy catalogs, an algorithm for propagating uncertainties measured in simulations to analogous measurements on data, and measurements of the incidence of projection effects in optically detected clusters of galaxies. I argue that continued development of the methods I have worked on is a promising path toward a conclusive test of Lambda-CDM with galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The DUNE Near Detector

DUNE is a next-generation experiment aiming to provide precision measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters. It will detect neutrinos produced in the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility beamline at Fermilab, using a Near Detector situated near the beam target where the neutrinos originate and a Far Detector located 1300 km away in South Dakota. A comparison of the spectra of neutrinos measured at the Far and the Near Detector will allow for the extraction of oscillation probabilities from which the oscillation parameters can be inferred. The specific role of the Near Detector is to serve as the experiment’s control: it will establish the no oscillation null hypothesis, measure and monitor the beam, constrain systematic uncertainties, and provide essential measurements of the neutrino interactions to improve models. The Near Detector complex will include three primary detector components: a liquid argon time projection chamber, a high-pressure gas time projection chamber and an on-axis beam monitor. The three detectors will serve important individual and overlapping functions, with two of them being also able to move transverse to the beam’s axis via the DUNE-PRISM program. The overall mission of the Near Detector, as well as the three sub-detectors’ unique capabilities and physics programs will be discussed in these proceedings.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Model-Form Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification for Modeling with Differential Equations: Application to Epidemiology

Modeling real-world phenomena to any degree of accuracy is a challenge that the scientific research community has navigated since its foundation. Lack of information and limited computational and observational resources necessitate modeling assumptions which, when invalid, lead to model-form error (MFE). The work reported herein explored a novel method to represent model-form uncertainty (MFU) that combines Bayesian statistics with the emerging field of universal differential equations (UDEs). The fundamental principle behind UDEs is simple: use known equational forms that govern a dynamical system when you have them; then incorporate data-driven approaches – in this case neural networks (NNs) – embedded within the governing equations to learn the interacting terms that were underrepresented. Utilizing epidemiology as our motivating exemplar, this report will highlight the challenges of modeling novel infectious diseases while introducing ways to incorporate NN approximations to MFE. Prior to embarking on a Bayesian calibration, we first explored methods to augment the standard (non-Bayesian) UDE training procedure to account for uncertainty and increase robustness of training. In addition, it is often the case that uncertainty in observations is significant; this may be due to randomness or lack of precision in the measurement process. This uncertainty typically manifests as “noisy” observations which deviate from a true underlying signal. To account for such variability, the NN approximation to MFE is endowed with a probabilistic representation and is updated using available observational data in a Bayesian framework. By representing the MFU explicitly and deploying an embedded, data-driven model, this approach enables an agile, expressive, and interpretable method for representing MFU. In this report we will provide evidence that Bayesian UDEs show promise as a novel framework for any science-based, data-driven MFU representation; while emphasizing that significant advances must be made in the calibration of Bayesian NNs to ensure a robust calibration procedure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Measuring Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Water Resource Recovery Facilities Workshop Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization Office hosted the Measuring Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Water Resource Recovery Facilities Workshop on Jan. 23–24, 2024, in Washington, D.C. The event brought together representatives from water resource recovery facilities, national laboratories, technology providers, academic researchers, industry consultants, and government agencies, to gather input on the challenges and opportunities in greenhouse gas measurement at water resource recovery facilities and how to effectively leverage future DOE efforts to reduce these uncertainties through potential measurement campaign(s). This report is a summary of the views expressed by individual participants during the workshop; it is not intended to represent DOE’s views or programmatic priorities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

HEU Metal Delayed Critical Experiments with 10 to 19 Inch Thick Graphite Reflectors

Approximately 100 graphite-reflected highly enriched uranium (HEU, 93.14 wt % 235 U) metal annular and cylindrical critical experiments were performed in the early 1960s at the Oak Ridge Critical Experiments Facility (ORCEF). This report presents details from experiment logbooks, experimental data sheets and the author's memory for 44 HEU metal (93.14 wt % 235 U) critical assemblies with graphite reflectors varying from 10 to 19 in. thick, outside diameters varying from 7 to 15 in., inside diameters varying from 7 to 13 in. and critical HEU metal masses varying from 20.4 to 69.0 kg. The data from the 44 experiments described in this report are acceptable for use as criticality safety benchmark experiments for the International Criticality Safety Evaluation Program (ICSBEP) once the uncertainty analysis on the measured k eff is completed. Based on previous ICSBEP benchmarks with this HEU metal at ORCEF, the uncertainties in the measured k eff are expected to be as low as ±0.0004. Preparation of this report is part of an effort at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to document more than 15 undocumented series of critical and subcritical experiments enumerated in Critical and Subcritical NEA Benchmark Possibilities for Measurements at ORCEF and Other US DOE Facilities (Mihalzo, ORNL/TM-2019/1188, 2019) and performed by ORNL at ORCEF and other US Department of Energy critical experiments facilities. More than 500 operational days of critical facility time were used, not including setup and dismantlement time. This documentation for a part of one series of graphite reflected highly enriched uranium metal critical experiments, that used 50 operational days of ORCEF time, was performed using funding received from the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy University Programs at the University of Tennessee Nuclear Engineering Department. This documentation was also supported by the Nuclear Criticality, Radiation Transport, and Safety programs at ORNL.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Method for measuring static Young's modulus of tungsten to 1900 K

An instrument system was developed and tested to measure static Young's modulus of elasticity of refractory metals in tension at temperatures to 1900 K. The extensometer uses capacitance displacement sensors for measuring total elongation of a specimen and incorporates a unique high-resolution remote zero-adjusting mechanism. Details of a method for calibrating capacitance displacement sensors at temperatures to 800 K are included. The system was built to adapt to a vacuum furnace on a tensile machine and was tested on unalloyed tungsten rod specimens. The test results show that the system can measure the modulus of tungsten to 1900 K to within a precision of + or - 5 percent. The uncertainty of the measurement is estimated to be of the same order as the precision.

Harrigill, W. T., Jr.↗

A Unified Picture of Pinatubo Aerosol Global-to Micro-Scale Evolution, From Space, Air, and Ground Measurements

We combine a variety of measurements to develop a composite picture of the post-Pinatubo aerosol and assess the consistency and uncertainties of the measurement and retrieval techniques. Satellite infrared spectroscopy, particle morphology, and evaporation temperature measurements are in accord with theoretical calculations in showing a dominant particle composition of H2SO4-H2O mixture, with H2SO4 weight fraction of 65-80% for most stratospheric temperatures and humidities. Important exceptions are: (1) the presence of volcanic ash at all altitudes initially and in a layer just above the tropopause until at least March 1992, and (2) much smaller H2SO4 weight fractions at the low temperatures attained in high latitude winters and at the tropical tropopause, Laboratory spectroscopy and theoretical calculations yield wavelength- and temperature-dependent refractive indices for the dominant H2SO4-H2O droplets. These in turn permit derivation of particle size spectra from measured optical depth spectra, for comparison to direct measurements by impactors and optical counters. All three techniques paint a generally consistent picture of the evolution of R(sub eff), the effective, or area-weighted, particle radius. In the first month after the eruption, although particle numbers increased by orders of magnitude, R(sub eff) was similar to the preemption value of 0.1 to 0.2 microns, because both small (r less than 0.2 microns) and large (r greater than 0.6 micron particles increased in number. Over the next 3-6 months, R(sub eff) increased to about 0.5 microns reflecting particle growth through condensation and coagulation. In general, R(sub eff) continued to increase for about a year after the eruption. Extinction spectra computed from in situ size distribution measurements are consistent with optical depth measurements, which show spectra with maxima initially at wavelengths of 0.42 microns or less, and thereafter progressively increasing to between 0.78 and 1 micron. Not until 1993 do optical depth spectra begin to show a clear return to the preemption signature of maximizing at the shortest visible wavelengths or in the near UV. This coupled evolution in particle size distribution and optical depth spectra helps explain the relationship between the global maps of 0.5- 1.0- micron optical depth derived from the AVHRR and SAGE satellite measurements.

Russell, Philip B.↗

On the Directional Dependence and Null Space Freedom in Uncertainty Bound Identification

In previous work, the determination of uncertainty models via minimum norm model validation is based on a single set of input and output measurement data. Since uncertainty bounds at each frequency is directionally dependent for multivariable systems, this will lead to optimistic uncertainty levels. In addition, the design freedom in the uncertainty model has not been utilized to further reduce uncertainty levels. The above issues are addressed by formulating a min- max problem. An analytical solution to the min-max problem is given to within a generalized eigenvalue problem, thus avoiding a direct numerical approach. This result will lead to less conservative and more realistic uncertainty models for use in robust control.

Lim, K. B.↗

Spectral Correlation in MODIS Water-Leaving Reflectance Retrieval Uncertainty

Spectral remote sensing reflectance, Rrs(λ) (sr−1), is the fundamental quantity used to derive a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column from satellite ocean color measurements. Estimation of uncertainty in those derived geophysical products is therefore dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R rs . Furthermore, since the associated algorithms require R rs at multiple spectral bands, the spectral (i.e., band-to-band)error covariance in R rs is needed to accurately estimate the uncertainty in those derived properties. This study establishes a derivative-based approach for propagating instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty into R rs as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) atmospheric correction algorithm, to generate pixel-level error covariance in R rs . The approach is applied to measurements from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. We also make use of this full spectral error covariance in R rs to calculate uncertainty in phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a concentration (chl a , mg/m 3 ) and diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (K d (490), m -1 ). Accounting for the error covariance in R rs generally reduces the estimated relative uncertainty in chl a by ∼1-2% (absolute value) in waters with chl a < 0.25 mg/m 3 where the color index (CI) algorithm is used. The reduction is ∼5-10% in waters with chl a > 0.35 mg/m 3 where the blue-green ratio (OCX) algorithm is used. Such reduction can be higher than 30% in some regions. For K d (490), the reduction by error covariance is generally ∼2%, but can be higher than 20% in some regions. The error covariance in R rs is further verified through forward-calculating chl a from MODIS-retrieved and in situ R rs and comparing estimated uncertainty with observed differences. An 8-day global composite of propagated uncertainty shows that the goal of 35% uncertainty in chl a can be achieved over deep ocean waters (chl a ≤ 0.1 mg/m3). While the derivative-based approach generates reasonable error covariance in R rs some assumptions should be updated as our knowledge improves. These include the inter-band error correlation in top-of-atmosphere reflectance, and uncertainties in the calibration of MODIS 869 nm band, in ancillary data, and in the in situ data used for system vicarious calibration.

Ocean color↗

Autonomous navigation accuracy using simulated horizon sensor and sun sensor observations

A relatively simple autonomous system which would use horizon crossing indicators, a sun sensor, a quartz oscillator, and a microprogrammed computer is discussed. The sensor combination is required only to effectively measure the angle between the centers of the Earth and the Sun. Simulations for a particular orbit indicate that 2 km r.m.s. orbit determination uncertainties may be expected from a system with 0.06 deg measurement uncertainty. A key finding is that knowledge of the satellite orbit plane orientation can be maintained to this level because of the annual motion of the Sun and the predictable effects of Earth oblateness. The basic system described can be updated periodically by transits of the Moon through the IR horizon crossing indicator fields of view.

Pease, G. E.↗

Measurements of B-mode polarization of the cosmic microwave background from 500 square degrees of SPTpol data

We report a B-mode power spectrum measurement from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization anisotropy observations made using the SPTpol instrument on the South Pole Telescope. This work uses 500 deg 2 of SPTpol data, a five-fold increase over the last SPTpol B-mode release. As a result, the bandpower uncertainties have been reduced by more than a factor of two, and the measurement extends to lower multipoles: 52 < ` < 2301. Data from both 95 and 150 GHz are used, allowing for three cross-spectra: 95 GHz x 95 GHz, 95 GHz x 150 GHz, and 150 GHz x 150 GHz. B-mode power is detected at very high significance; we find P(BB < 0) = 5.8 × 10 -71 , corresponding to a 18.1 σ detection of power. With a prior on the galactic dust from Planck, WMAP and BICEP2/Keck observations, the SPTpol B-mode data can be used to set an upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r < 0.44 at 95% confidence (the expected 1 σ constraint on r given the measurement uncertainties is 0.22). We find the measured B-mode power is consistent with the Planck best-fit ΛCDM model predictions. Scaling the predicted lensing B-mode power in this model by a factor A lens , the data prefer A lens = 1.17 ± 0.13. These data are currently the most precise measurements of B-mode power at ℓ > 320.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

First Measurement of Antideuteron Number Fluctuations at Energies Available at the Large Hadron Collider

The first measurement of event-by-event antideuteron number fluctuations in high energy heavy-ion collisions is presented. The measurements are carried out at midrapidity (|η|<0.8) as a function of collision centrality in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{^sNN}$=5.02 TeV using the ALICE detector. A significant negative correlation between the produced antiprotons and antideuterons is observed in all collision centralities. The results are compared with a state-of-the-art coalescence calculation. While it describes the ratio of higher order cumulants of the antideuteron multiplicity distribution, it fails to describe quantitatively the magnitude of the correlation between antiproton and antideuteron production. On the other hand, thermal-statistical model calculations describe all the measured observables within uncertainties only for correlation volumes that are different with respect to those describing proton yields and a similar measurement of net-proton number fluctuations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The influence of secondary electron yield uncertainty on the single-sided multipacting in dielectrics

Multipacting is an electrical discharge caused by the emission of secondary electrons which can occur in vacuum radio frequency systems. Generally multipacting is highly undesirable obstacle, which increases the noise level as well as the return loss of radio frequency systems. Therefore, a prediction of multipacting is necessary to avoid it during radio frequency system design. In this regard, the accurate evaluation of the factors that affect multipacting is required. One of the critical factors determining the multipacting development is the secondary electron yield of the material. In practice the emission properties of materials are not known very accurately. There are uncertainties in the measured values of this yield. In this paper, the generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) method is used to quantify uncertainty of the secondary electron yield. This method is verified by Monte Carlo simulation. The effect of uncertainty for two secondary electron yield parameters is then investigated on the multipacting using gPC method.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Development of a high temperature capacitive pressure transducer

High temperature pressure transducers capable of continuous operation while exposed to 650 C were developed and evaluated over a full-scale differential pressure range of + or - 69 kPa. The design of the pressure transducers was based on the use of a diaphragm to respond to pressure, variable capacitive elements arranged to operate as a differential capacitor to measure diaphragm response and on the use of fused silica for the diaphragm and its supporting assembly. The uncertainty associated with measuring + or - 69 kPa pressures between 20C and 650C was less than + or - 6%.

Egger, R. L.↗

Fundamental aspects of pulse phase-locked loop technology-based methods for measurement of ultrasonic velocity

A new instrument based on a constant frequency pulse phase-locked loop concept has been developed to accurately measure the ultrasonic phase velocity in condensed matter. Measurements of the sound velocity in ultrapure water are reported in which both damped and undamped transducers are used with the instrument together with reflectors of various thicknesses placed in the sound propagation path. An analysis of measurements made with the new instrument and similar measurements, taken under identical experimental conditions, using a popular variable frequency pulsed-phase-locked loop instrument is reported. Uncertainties in both measurement systems are analyzed and discussed. A method for measuring inherent phase shifts, not addressed by previous investigations, within the variable frequency pulsed phase-locked loop system and a derivation of the equations that govern the overall use of variable frequency systems using phase-sensitive comparisons are presented. The effects of a finite pulse length on the measurements of phase velocity in dispersive media are addressed in detail.

Yost, William T.↗

Global and Regional Trends of Aerosol Optical Depth over Land and Ocean Using SeaWiFS Measurements from 1997 to 2010

Both sensor calibration and satellite retrieval algorithm play an important role in the ability to determine accurately long-term trends from satellite data. Owing to the unprecedented accuracy and long-term stability of its radiometric calibration, the SeaWiFS measurements exhibit minimal uncertainty with respect to sensor calibration. In this study, we take advantage of this well-calibrated set of measurements by applying a newly-developed aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval algorithm over land and ocean to investigate the distribution of AOD, and to identify emerging patterns and trends in global and regional aerosol loading during its 13-year mission. Our results indicate that the averaged AOD trend over global ocean is weakly positive from 1998 to 2010 and comparable to that observed by MODIS but opposite in sign to that observed by AVHRR during overlapping years. On a smaller scale, different trends are found for different regions. For example, large upward trends are found over the Arabian Peninsula that indicate a strengthening of the seasonal cycle of dust emission and transport processes over the whole region as well as over downwind oceanic regions. In contrast, a negative-neutral tendency is observed over the desert/arid Saharan region as well as in the associated dust outflow over the north Atlantic. Additionally, we found decreasing trends over the eastern US and Europe, and increasing trends over countries such as China and India that are experiencing rapid economic development. In general, these results are consistent with those derived from ground-based AERONET measurements.

Hsu, N. C.↗

TRUST Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples (SE-TC), Release FY25

The Delivery Environments Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) project is a broad project intended to analyze simplified problems experimentally and with modeling and simulation. The purpose of analyzing these simplified problems is to extend solution methods to more complex problems, as well as understand deficiencies and gaps in knowledge of methods currently used in more complex analyses. The TRUST project encompasses several smaller testbeds intended to isolate individual phenomena. The testbed under consideration in this report is the Sensors in Environments: Thermocouples testbed. In previous years, the purpose of this testbed was to quantify uncertainty of thermocouple sensors. To accomplish this, an aluminum plate was placed in a thermal chamber and subject to various types of thermal loading. Thermocouples were placed in various locations on the aluminum plate in various configurations (e.g., embedded in the plate, placed under Kapton tape), and an effort was made to quantify uncertainty in these measurements. Finite element simulations were performed to investigate how sensitive these measurements were to parameters such as the boundary conditions on the plate and material properties. However, a fundamental source of uncertainty in this analysis was the convective heat transfer from the plate. Convective heat transfer is a complex physical phenomenon comprised of a number of interacting sub-processes and is difficult to predict accurately a priori. As such, the main purpose of this testbed in FY25 was to better understand, both experimentally and numerically, the convective heat transfer from the plate. This is a highly applicable problem to several more complex problems, as convective heat transfer occurs in nearly all problems where a body is moving through air. Numerically, this required a two-step approach. First, the air flow in the thermal chamber was in vestigated using computational fluid dynamics. The commercial solver Fluent was used to perform these simulations. From these simulations, a heat transfer coefficient over the surface of the plate was calculated. This heat transfer was then used as boundary conditions for finite element heat transfer simulations within the plate, which were performed using Abaqus. Significant effort was devoted to automating the handoff between these two solvers. Experimentally, previous thermocouple results in the plate were used to validate the time-dependent thermal profiles produced from Abaqus. Further experimental efforts were performed both to help validate the Fluent simulations and to inform its boundary conditions. For example, hot-wire anemometers were used to measure the velocity in the chamber, which would be particularly useful in understanding the chamber inlet velocity. Thermocouple measurements were also taken in the chamber, instead of only on the plate, to serve as validation evidence for the Fluent simulations. Numerical results showed that the Fluent to Abaqus workflow matched previous plate thermocouple measurements well. This type of handoff is useful for more complex experiments, or those that are not able to be examined in as great of detail as this testbed, as it was performed without any experimental input. Experimental results, however, were more mixed. The anemometers proved unreliable, with inconsistent measurements across all anemometers, even at locations that were nearly identical. On the other hand, the thermocouples provided a relatively rich view of the temperature field in the chamber.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Statistical analysis of non-Maxwellian electron distribution functions measured with angularly resolved Thomson scattering

Angularly resolved Thomson scattering is a novel extension of Thomson scattering, enabling the measurement of the electron velocity distribution function over many orders of magnitude. Here, details of the theoretical basis of the technique and the instrument designed for this measurement are described. Angularly resolved Thomson-scattering data from several experiments are shown with descriptions of the corresponding distribution functions. A reduced model describing the distribution function is given and used to perform a Monte Carlo analysis of the uncertainty in the measurements. The electron density and temperature were determined to a precision of 12% and 21%, respectively, on average, while all other parameters defining the distribution function were generally determined to better than 20%. It was found that these uncertainties were primarily due to limited signal to noise and instrumental effects. Furthermore, measurements with this level of precision were sufficient to distinguish between Maxwellian and non-Maxwellian distribution functions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗