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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Millimeter-wave Point Sources from the 2500 Square Degree SPT-SZ Survey: Catalog and Population Statistics

In this work, we present a catalog of emissive point sources detected in the SPT-SZ survey, a contiguous 2530- square-degree area surveyed with the South Pole Telescope (SPT) from 2008 - 2011 in three bands centered at 95, 150, and 220GHz. The catalog contains 4845 sources measured at a significance of 4.5σ or greater in at least one band, corresponding to detections above approximately 9.8, 5.8, and 20.4 mJy in 95, 150, and 220 GHz, respectively. Spectral behavior in the SPT bands is used for source classification into two populations based on the underlying physical mechanisms of compact, emissive sources that are bright at millimeter wavelengths: synchrotron radiation from active galactic nuclei and thermal emission from dust. The latter population includes a component of high-redshift sources often referred to as submillimeter galaxies (SMGs). In the relatively bright flux ranges probed by the survey, these sources are expected to be magnified by strong gravitational lensing. The survey also contains sources consistent with protoclusters, groups of dusty galaxies at high redshift undergoing collapse. We cross-match the SPT-SZ catalog with external catalogs at radio, infrared, and X-ray wavelengths and identify available redshift information. The catalog splits into 3980 synchrotron-dominated and 865 dust-dominated sources and we determine a list of 506 SMGs. Ten sources in the catalog are identified as stars. We calculate number counts for the full catalog, and synchrotron and dusty components, using a bootstrap method and compare our measured counts with models. This paper represents the third and final catalog of point sources in the SPT-SZ survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resolved Dwarf Galaxy Searches within ~5 Mpc with the Vera Rubin Observatory and Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam*

We present a preview of the faint dwarf galaxy discoveries that will be possible with the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam in the next decade. In this work, we combine deep ground-based images from the Panoramic Imaging Survey of Centaurus and Sculptor (PISCeS) and extensive image simulations to investigate the recovery of faint, resolved dwarf galaxies in the Local Volume with a matched-filter technique. We adopt three fiducial distances - 1.5, 3.5, 5 Mpc, and quantitatively evaluate the effects on dwarf detection of varied stellar backgrounds, ellipticity, and Milky Way foreground contamination and extinction. We show that our matched-filter method is powerful for identifying both compact and extended systems, and near-future surveys will be able to probe at least ~4.5 mag below the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) for a distance of up to 1.5 Mpc, and ~2 mag below the TRGB at 5 Mpc. This will push the discovery frontier for resolved dwarf galaxies to fainter magnitudes, lower surface brightnesses, and larger distances. Our simulations show the secure census of dwarf galaxies down to $M_{V}$$\approx$-5, -7, -8, will be soon within reach, out to 1.5 Mpc, 3.5 Mpc, and 5 Mpc, respectively, allowing us to quantify the statistical fluctuations in satellite abundances around hosts, and parse environmental effects as a function of host properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quenching in the Right Place at the Right Time: Tracing the Shared History of Starbursts, Active Galactic Nuclei, and Poststarburst Galaxies Using Their Structures and Multiscale Environments

This work uses multiscale environments and the structures of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey as consistency checks on the evolution from starburst to quiescence at redshift z < 0.2. The environmental indicators include fixed-aperture mass overdensities (δ xMpc , x ϵ {0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8} h –1 Mpc), k-nearest neighbor distances, the tidal parameter, halo mass (M h ), and satellite/central classification. The residuals of the specific star formation rates (Δ SSFRs) are used to select starbursts (ΔSSFR > 0.6 dex, N ≈ 8600). Quenched poststarbursts (QPSBs) are selected using Hα < 3 Å emission and Hδ A > 4 Å absorption (N ≈ 750). The environments of starbursts and QPSBs are compared with those of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and inactive galaxies of varying ΔSSFR. The environments of starbursts, AGNs, and QPSBs are unlike the environments of most quiescent galaxies (QGs). About 70%–90% of starbursts, AGNs with Hδ A > 4 Å, and QPSBs are centrals; ~80%–90% have M h < 10 13 M ⊙ , and only ~2%–4% have M h > 10 14 M ⊙ or live in clusters. Their M h and satellite fractions are also different from those of QGs. All QPSBs are matched to some SFGs, starbursts, AGNs, and QGs of similar M $\star$ , environments, concentration indices, and velocity dispersions. A significant fraction (~20%–30%) of starbursts cannot be matched to QPSBs or QGs. The implications are that: (1) some starbursts do not quench rapidly; (2) the satellite-quenching mechanisms operating in high-density environments cannot account for most QPSBs; (3) the evolution from starbursts to QPSBs to QGs is not the dominant path at z < 0.2; and (4) starbursts are not mainly triggered by tidal interactions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Inputs to Realistic Kilonova Simulations through Comparison to Observed r -process Abundances

Kilonovae, one source of electromagnetic emission associated with neutron star mergers, are powered by the decay of radioactive isotopes in the neutron-rich merger ejecta. Models for kilonova emission consistent with the electromagnetic counterpart to GW170817 predict characteristic abundance patterns, determined by the relative balance of different types of material in the outflow. Assuming that the observed source is prototypical, this inferred abundance pattern in turn must match r -process abundances deduced by other means, such as what is observed in the solar system. We report on analysis comparing the input mass-weighted elemental compositions adopted in our radiative transfer simulations to the mass fractions of elements in the Sun, as a practical prototype for the potentially universal abundance signature from neutron star mergers. We characterize the extent to which our parameter inference results depend on our assumed composition for the dynamical and wind ejecta and examine how the new results compare to previous work. We find that a dynamical ejecta composition calculated using the FRDM2012 nuclear mass and FRLDM fission models with extremely neutron-rich ejecta ($Y_e$ = 0.035) along with moderately neutron-rich ($Y_e$ = 0.27) wind ejecta composition yields a wind-to-dynamical mass ratio of $M_w$/$M_d$ = 0.47, which best matches the observed AT2017gfo kilonova light curves while also producing the bestmatching abundance of neutron capture elements in the solar system, though, allowing for systematics, the ratio may be as high as of order unity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Dust Production, Growth, and Destruction in Reionization-era Galaxies with the CROC Simulations. II. Predicting the Dust Content of High-redshift Galaxies

Abstract We model the interstellar dust content of the reionization era with a suite of cosmological, fluid-dynamical simulations of galaxies with stellar masses ranging from ∼10 5 to 10 9 M ⊙ in the first 1.2 Gyr of the Universe. We use a post-processing method that accounts for dust creation and destruction processes, allowing us to systematically vary the parameters of these processes to test whether dust-dependent observable quantities of galaxies at these epochs could be useful for placing constraints on dust physics. We then forward model observable properties of these galaxies to compare to existing data. We find that we are unable to simultaneously match existing observational constraints with any one set of model parameters. Specifically, the models that predict the largest dust masses D / Z ≳ 0.1 at z = 5—because of high assumed production yields and/or efficient growth via accretion in the interstellar medium—are preferred by constraints on total dust mass and infrared (IR) luminosities, but these models produce far too much attenuation in the ultraviolet (UV), preventing them from matching observations of β UV . To investigate this discrepancy, we analyze the relative spatial distribution of stars and dust as probed by IR and UV emission, which appear to exhibit overly symmetric morphologies compared to existing data, likely due to the limitations of the stellar feedback model used in the simulations. Our results indicate that the observable properties of the dust distribution in high redshift galaxies are a particularly strong test of stellar feedback.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Boundary of the Distribution of Solar Wind Proton Beta versus Temperature Anisotropy

Abstract The frequency distribution of solar wind protons, measured in the vicinity of Earth’s orbit, is customarily plotted in ( β ∥ , T ⊥ / T ∥ ) phase space. Here, T ⊥ / T ∥ is the ratio of perpendicular and parallel temperatures, and β ∥ = 8 π nT ∥ / B 2 is the ratio of parallel thermal energy to background magnetic field energy, the so-called “parallel beta,” with ⊥ and ∥ denoting directions with respect to the ambient magnetic field. Such a frequency distribution, plotted as a two-dimensional histogram, forms a peculiar rhombic shape defined with an outer boundary in the said phase space. Past studies reveal that the threshold conditions for temperature anisotropy–driven plasma instability partially account for the boundary on the high- β ∥ side. The low- β ∥ side remains largely unexplained despite some efforts. Work by Vafin et al. recently showed that certain contours of collisional relaxation frequency, ν pp , when parameterized by T ⊥ / T ∥ and β ∥ , could match the overall shape of the left-hand boundary, thus suggesting that the collisional relaxation process might be closely related to the formation of the left-hand boundary. The present paper extends the analysis by Vafin et al. and carries out the dynamical computation of the collisional relaxation process for an ensemble of initial proton states with varying degrees of anisotropic temperatures. The final states of the relaxed protons are shown to closely match the observed boundary to the left of the ( β ∥ , T ⊥ / T ∥ ) phase space. When coupled with a similar set of calculations for the ensemble in the collective instability regime, it is found that the combined collisional/collective effects provide the baseline explanation for the observation.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Studying the Power Sources behind Type Ic Supernovae

Astrophysical transients can be powered by a broad range of energy sources, including shock heating (internal and external shocks), decay of radioactive isotopes, and long-lived central engines (magnetar and fallback). The dominant energy source for astrophysical transients depends on the nature of the explosive engine and its progenitor. To model all transients, light-curve codes must include all of these energy sources. Here, we present a supernova light-curve code implementing analytic source models to compare the role of different energy sources in these transients. To demonstrate the utility of this code, we conduct an extensive study of Type Ic broad-line (Ic-BL) supernovae. A diverse set of energy sources have been linked to Ic-BL supernovae, making them an excellent candidate for this light-curve code. In this paper, we explore which features of the explosion (mass, velocity, etc.) affect the Type Ic supernovae light curves, focusing on shock-interaction and radioactive-decay energy sources. Although the explosion properties under both energy sources can be tuned to match the peak emission, matching the light-curve evolution in many Ic-BL supernovae requires fine-tuned conditions. We find that shock interactions in the stellar wind are likely to be the dominant energy source at peak for these supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Extended Baryonic Tully–Fisher Relation for SDSS MaNGA Galaxies

The baryonic Tully–Fisher relation (BTFR), a relationship between the rotational velocity and baryonic mass in spiral galaxies, probes the relative content of baryonic and total mass in galaxies and thus provides a good test of dark matter content in galaxies. Using Hα kinematics, we model the rotation curves of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey MaNGA DR17 spiral galaxies. To extend the BTFR to higher masses with elliptical galaxies, we estimate their total masses from their stellar velocity dispersions using the virial theorem and define the effective rotational velocity as the velocity a rotation-supported galaxy would exhibit given this mass. The baryonic mass of spiral galaxies is composed of stellar, H I , H 2 , and He mass, while only the stellar mass is used for the baryonic content of ellipticals. We construct joint BTFRs for 5743 MaNGA spiral and elliptical galaxies, TNG100 simulated galaxies with baryonic masses greater than 10 9 M ⊙ , and a cross-matched subsample between these two datasets (3149 spiral and 1423 elliptical galaxies). For the cross-matched subsample, we find agreement in the slopes between observed and simulated galaxies. We find a slope of $3.8{6}_{-0.62}^{+0.92}$ for the full MaNGA sample, which agrees well with the slope of 4.0 predicted by MOND and the fitted slope of $3.5{8}_{-0.38}^{+0.48}$ for the TNG100 galaxies. We find that a sample of lower-mass galaxies is necessary to differentiate between the two models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Weak-lensing Detection of Intercluster Filaments in Three Nearby Cluster Systems

Abstract Direct detection of intercluster filaments is challenging due to their low surface density, resulting in a weak deflection field. We present weak-lensing detections of intercluster filaments using wide-field Dark Energy Camera observations from the Local Volume Complete Cluster Survey. A matched-filter method was applied to identify filamentary structures in three nearby ( z < 0.1) systems centered on A401, A2029, and A3558. We discover two filaments (>3 σ ) in each system, with the strongest detections (5.2 σ –5.8 σ ) around A401 and A2029. In particular, we report the first robust weak-lensing detections (≳5 σ ) of the intercluster bridges connecting the cluster pairs A401/399, A2029/2033, A2029/SIG, and A3558/3556. Adopting a filament convergence model motivated by numerical simulations, we infer the maximum convergence ( κ 0 ) and characteristic width ( h c ) for all six filaments, yielding κ 0 ∼ 0.016–0.040 and h c ∼ 0.23–0.43 Mpc. The performance of the matched-filter technique is validated using mock shear catalogs and further tested on a null field around A2351. We explore the potential of using the B-mode lensing signal of filaments to suppress cluster-induced shear contamination. We also quantify the biasing effect of closely separated terminal clusters to the filament signal. These results demonstrate the feasibility of directly mapping dark matter filaments with current and future wide-field weak-lensing datasets.

Shinde, Rahul [Brown University] (ORCID:0000000273↗
DOE OSTI2023

Catalog of Planetary Nebulae Detected by GALEX and Corollary Optical Surveys

Planetary nebulae (PNs) consist of an ionized envelope surrounding a hot central star (CSPN) that emits mostly at ultraviolet (UV) wavelengths. UV observations, therefore, provide important information on both the CSPN and the nebula. We have matched the PNs in the Hong Kong/Australian Astronomical Observatory/Strasbourg Hα catalog with the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) UV sky surveys, the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data release 16, and the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS) PS1 second release. A total of 671 PNs were observed by GALEX with the far-UV (FUV; 1344 Å–1786 Å) and/or the near-UV (NUV; 1771 Å–2831 Å) detectors on (GUVPNcat); 83 were observed by SDSS (PNcatxSDSSDR16) and 1819 by Pan-STARRS (PNcatxPS1MDS). We merged a distilled version of these matched catalogs into GUVPNcatxSDSSDR16xPS1MDS, which contains a total of 375 PNs with both UV and optical photometry over a total spectral coverage of ~1540 Å–9610 Å. We analyzed separately 170 PNs resolved in GALEX images and determined their UV radius by applying a flux profile analysis. The CSPN flux could be extracted separately from the PN emission for 8 and 50 objects with SDSS and Pan-STARRS counterparts, respectively. The multiband photometry was used to distinguish between compact and extended PNs and CSPNs (binary CSPNs) by color–color diagram analysis. We found that compact PN candidates could be identified by using the r - i < - 0.4 and -1 < FUV-NUV < 1 colors, whereas binary CSPN candidates in given T eff ranges (all with color r-i > -0.4) can be identified in the color region (FUV-NUV) ≤ 6(r-i)+1.3, -0.8 < FUV-NUV < 0.4, and r-i < 0.75.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

AT2025ulz and S250818k: Zooming in with the Hubble Space Telescope

AT2025ulz is an optical/near-infrared transient discovered during follow-up of the candidate gravitational wave (GW) event S250818k. Its young age (≲1 day), rapid decline, and strong color evolution over the first 48 hr classify it as a potential kilonova candidate. In this work, we present the results of our observing campaign, carried out with the Gran Telescopio Canarias and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Although the early time evolution of AT2025ulz resembles some aspects of a kilonova, its rapid onset (∼3 hr after the GW trigger) and luminosity (a factor of ∼5 brighter than AT2017gfo in g band) are difficult to reproduce. Only a small subset of our kilonova models matches its multicolor light curve, and the inferred ejecta mass is uncomfortably large given the low chirp mass (≲0.87 M ⊙ ) of the GW candidate. HST observations place the transient within a nearby (z = 0.08489) spiral galaxy with ongoing star formation and measure a color (F336W − F160W ≈ 1.4 mag) that is too blue to match with a kilonova. Our data support the classification of AT2025ulz as a supernova, initially undergoing a shock-cooling phase and later entering its photospheric phase and spectroscopically identified via its broad absorption features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectometry and Steepest Descent Inversion to Measure Complex Impedance

In this paper, we present a method for estimating complex impedances using reflectometry and a modified steepest descent inversion algorithm. We simulate spread spectrum time domain reflectometry (SSTDR), which can measure complex impedances on energized systems for an experimental setup with resistive and capacitive loads. A parametric function, which includes both a misfit function and stabilizer function, is created. The misfit function is a least squares estimate of how close the model data matches observed data. The stabilizer function prevents the steepest descent algorithm from becoming unstable and diverging. Steepest descent iteratively identifies the model parameters that minimize the parametric function. We validate the algorithm by correctly identifying the model parameters (capacitance and resistance) associated with simulated SSTDR data, with added 3 dB white Gaussian noise. With the stabilizer function, the steepest descent algorithm estimates of the model parameters are bounded within a specified range. Furthermore, the errors for capacitance (220pF to 820pF) and resistance (50 Ω to 270 Ω) are < 10%, corresponding to a complex impedance magnitude |R +1/jωC| of 53 Ω to 510 Ω.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the Sentinel-5 Precursor TROPOMI cloud data with Cloudnet, Aura OMI O 2 –O 2 , MODIS, and Suomi-NPP VIIRS

Accurate knowledge of cloud properties is essential to the measurement of atmospheric composition from space. In this work we assess the quality of the cloud data from three Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) TROPOMI cloud products: (i) S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL (Optical Cloud Recognition Algorithm/Retrieval of Cloud Information using Neural Networks;Clouds-As-Layers), (ii) S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CRB (Clouds-as-Reflecting Boundaries), and (iii) S5P FRESCO-S (Fast Retrieval Scheme for Clouds from Oxygen absorption bands – Sentinel). Target properties of this work are cloud-top height and cloud optical thickness (OCRA/ROCINN_CAL), cloud height (OCRA/ROCINN_CRB and FRESCO-S), and radiometric cloud fraction (all three algorithms). The analysis combines (i) the examination of cloud maps for artificial geographical patterns, (ii) the comparison to other satellite cloud data (MODIS, NPP-VIIRS, and OMI O2–O2), and (iii) ground-based validation with respect to correlative observations (30 April 2018 to 27 February 2020) from the Cloudnet network of ceilometers, lidars, and radars. Zonal mean latitudinal variation of S5P cloud properties is similar to that of other satellite data. S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL agrees well with NPP VIIRS cloud-top height and cloud optical thickness and with Cloudnet cloud-top height, especially for the low (mostly liquid) clouds. For the high clouds, S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL cloud-top height is below the cloud-top height of VIIRS and of Cloudnet, while its cloud optical thickness is higher than that of VIIRS. S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CRB and S5P FRESCO cloud height are well below the Cloudnet cloud mean height for the low clouds but match on average better with the Cloudnet cloud mean height for the higher clouds. As opposed to S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CRB and S5P FRESCO, S5P OCRA/ROCINN_CAL is well able to match the lowest CTH mode of the Cloudnet observations. Peculiar geographical patterns are identified in the cloud products and will be mitigated in future releases of the cloud data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CICE on a C-grid: new momentum, stress, and transport schemes for CICEv6.5

Abstract. This article presents the C-grid implementation of the CICE sea ice model, including the C-grid discretization of the momentum equation, the boundary conditions (BCs), and the modifications to the code required to use the incremental remapping transport scheme. To validate the new C-grid implementation, many numerical experiments were conducted and compared to the B-grid solutions. In idealized experiments, the standard advection method (incremental remapping with C-grid velocities interpolated to the cell corners) leads to a checkerboard pattern. A modal analysis demonstrates that this computational noise originates from the spatial averaging of C-grid velocities at corners. The checkerboard pattern can be eliminated by adjusting the departure regions to match the divergence obtained from the solution of the momentum equation. We refer to this novel approach as the edge flux adjustment (EFA) method. The C-grid discretization with edge flux adjustment allows for transport in channels that are one grid cell wide – a capability that is not possible with the B-grid discretization nor with the C-grid and standard remapping advection. Simulation results match the predicted values of a novel analytical solution for one-grid-cell-wide channels.

Lemieux, Jean-François (ORCID:0000000320845759)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis of historical reservoir operations from 1980 to 2020 for the evaluation of reservoir representation in large-scale hydrologic models

Abstract. All the major river systems in the contiguous United States (CONUS) (and many in the world) are impacted by dams, yet reservoir operations remain difficult to quantify and model due to a lack of data. Reservoir operation data are often inaccessible or distributed across many local operating agencies, making the acquisition and processing of data records quite time-consuming. As a result, large-scale models often rely on simple parameterizations for assumed reservoir operations and have a very limited ability to evaluate how well these approaches match actual historical operations. Here, we use the first national dataset of historical reservoir operations in the CONUS domain, ResOpsUS, to analyze reservoir storage trends and operations in more than 600 major reservoirs across the US. Our results show clear regional differences in reservoir operations. In the eastern US, which is dominated by flood control storage, we see storage peaks in the winter months with sharper decreases in the operational range (i.e., the difference between monthly maximum and minimum storage) in the summer. In the more arid western US where storage is predominantly for irrigation, we find that storage peaks during the spring and summer with increases in the operational range during the summer months. The Lower Colorado region is an outlier because its seasonal storage dynamics more closely mirrored those of flood control basins, yet the region is classified as arid, and most reservoirs have irrigation uses. Consistent with previous studies, we show that average annual reservoir storage has decreased over the past 40 years, although our analyses show a much smaller decrease than previous work. The reservoir operation characterizations presented here can be used directly for development or evaluation of reservoir operations and their derived parameters in large-scale models. We also evaluate how well historical operations match common assumptions that are often applied in large-scale reservoir parameterizations. For example, we find that 100 dams have maximum storage values greater than the reported reservoir capacity from the Global Reservoirs and Dams database (GRanD). Finally, we show that operational ranges have been increasing over time in more arid regions and decreasing in more humid regions, pointing to the need for operating policies which are not solely based on static values.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat

Abstract. Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, has retreated and accelerated through the 21st century, raising concerns that it could be a significant contributor to future sea-level rise. We use a data-constrained ensemble of three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model simulations to estimate the likely range of sea-level rise from the continued retreat of Humboldt Glacier. We first solve for basal traction using observed ice thickness, bed topography, and ice surface velocity from the year 2007 in a PDE-constrained (partial differential equation) optimization. Next, we impose calving rates to match mean observed retreat rates from winter 2007–2008 to winter 2017–2018 in a transient calibration of the exponent in the power-law basal friction relationship. We find that power-law exponents in the range of 1/7–1/5 – rather than the commonly used 1/3–1 – are necessary to reproduce the observed speedup over this period. We then tune an iceberg calving parameterization based on the von Mises stress yield criterion in another transient-calibration step to approximate both observed ice velocities and terminus position in 2017–2018. Finally, we use the range of basal friction relationship exponents and calving parameter values to generate the ensemble of model simulations from 2007–2100 under three climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 (two RCP8.5 forcings, Representative Concentration Pathway) and CMIP6 (one SSP5-8.5 forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Our simulations predict 5.2–8.7 mm of sea-level rise from Humboldt Glacier, significantly higher than a previous estimate (∼ 3.5 mm) and equivalent to a substantial fraction of the 40–140 mm predicted by ISMIP6 from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet. Our larger future sea-level rise prediction results from the transient calibration of our basal friction law to match the observed speedup, which requires a semi-plastic bed rheology. In many simulations, our model predicts the growth of a sizable ice shelf in the middle of the 21st century. Thus, atmospheric warming could lead to more retreat than predicted here if increased surface melt promotes hydrofracture of the ice shelf. Our data-constrained simulations of Humboldt Glacier underscore the sensitivity of model predictions of Greenland outlet glacier response to warming to choices of basal shear stress and iceberg calving parameterizations. Further, transient calibration of these parameterizations, which has not typically been performed, is necessary to reproduce observed behavior. Current estimates of future sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet could, therefore, contain significant biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗