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At least 901 records · Page 50

Multizonal modeling of SARS-CoV-2 aerosol dispersion in a virtual office building

The dispersion of indoor airborne contaminants across different zones within a mechanically ventilated building is a complex phenomenon driven by multiple factors. In this study, we modeled the indoor dispersion of airborne SARS-CoV-2 aerosols within a US Department of Energy detailed medium office prototype building using CONTAM software. The aim of this study is to improve our understanding about how different parts of a building can experience varying concentrations of the airborne viruses under different circumstances of release and mitigation strategies. Results indicate that unventilated stairwells can have significantly higher concentrations of airborne viruses. The mitigation strategies of morning and evening flushing of conditioned zones were not found to be very effective. Instead, a constant high percentage of outdoor air in the supply mix, and the use of masks, portable HEPA air cleaners, MERV 13 or higher HVAC air filters, and ultraviolet germicidal irradiation disinfection were effective strategies to prevent airborne viral contamination in the majority of the simulated office building.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Focused ion beam deposited carbon-platinum nanowires for cryogenic resistive thermometry

The study of thermal effects, both classical and quantum, at cryogenic temperatures requires the use of on-chip, local, high-sensitivity thermometry. Carbon-platinum composites fabricated using focused ion beam (FIB) assisted deposition form a granular structure which is shown in this study to be uniquely suited for this application. Carbon-platinum thermometers deposited using a 24 pA ion beam current have high sensitivities below 1 K, comparable to the best cryogenic thermometers. In addition, these thermometers can be accurately placed to within 10s of nanometers on the chip using a mask-free process. Furthermore, they also have a weak magnetic field dependence, 3% change in resistance with applied magnetic fields from 0 to 8 T. Finally, these thermometers are integrable into a variety of nanoscale devices due to the existing wide spread use of FIB.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

GMRES with embedded ensemble propagation for the efficient solution of parametric linear systems in uncertainty quantification of computational models

In a previous work, embedded ensemble propagation was proposed to improve the efficiency of sampling-based uncertainty quantification methods of computational models on emerging computational architectures. It consists of simultaneously evaluating the model for a subset of samples together, instead of evaluating them individually. A first approach introduced to solve parametric linear systems with ensemble propagation is ensemble reduction. In Krylov methods for example, this reduction consists in coupling the samples together using an inner product that sums the sample contributions. Ensemble reduction has the advantages of being able to use optimized implementations of BLAS functions and having a stopping criterion which involves only one scalar. However, the reduction potentially decreases the rate of convergence due to the gathering of the spectra of the samples. In this paper, we investigate a second approach: ensemble propagation without ensemble reduction in the case of GMRES. This second approach solves each sample simultaneously but independently to improve the convergence compared to ensemble reduction. This raises two new issues which are solved in this paper: the fact that optimized implementations of BLAS functions cannot be used anymore and that ensemble divergence, whereby individual samples within an ensemble must follow different code execution paths, can occur. We tackle those issues by implementing a high-performing ensemble GEMV and by using masks. The proposed ensemble GEMV leads to a similar cost per GMRES iteration for both approaches, i.e. with and without reduction. For illustration, we study the performances of the new linear solver in the context of a mesh tying problem. Furthermore, this example demonstrates improved ensemble propagation speed-up without reduction.

BLAS↗

A deep learning model for automatic analysis of cavities in irradiated materials

Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) is a commonly used technique in materials science for defect investigation. Quantitative analysis of defects is important for understanding the properties of a material, but manual analysis of TEM micrographs can be time-consuming and prone to error, especially when the defects have irregular shapes rather than spherical shapes. Many existing methods or deep learning models do not handle a wide range of sizes for the same object type within a single image. In this work, we present a framework that enables users to train an instance segmentation model called Mask R- CNN on any microstructure dataset, perform multi-detection on the same image at different scales, and obtain properties (e.g., size, area) of the objects based on the desired shape (e.g., circle, ellipse, rectangle). Additionally, we have developed a parallel detection module that uses multiple GPUs to increase the efficiency of the object detection process. We demonstrate the capabilities of our framework using a set of TEM images of cavities with different shapes, size distributions, and background contrasts. Finally, we show that the performance of our model in terms of density, size, and swelling of the cavities is comparable to the human average and that our model achieves the highest recall value compared to existing methods due to the use of image multi-rescaling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Editorial overview: Unlocking the secrets of nongenetic plasticity, one cell at a time

Cellular noise, the non-genetic variability observed among isogenic cells, arises from factors such as growth conditions, aging, and stochastic gene expression, influencing cell stress-response, metabolism, morphology, and size. Here, such plasticity, while critical for adaptation, often goes unnoticed with traditional population-averaging biotechnologies that inevitably mask cell-specific variations and prompting the question, "What else might we be missing". However, recent breakthroughs in optical imaging, microfluidics, and omics, are beginning to uncover the complexity of cellular plasticity. This special is-sue highlights some of these breakthroughs, with key contributions including innovations in multimodal chemical imaging, label-free microscopy, spatial and temporal omics, and droplet-based microfluidics. Collectively, these cutting-edge tools provide unprecedent-ed insights into non-genetic cell-to-cell variability, enhancing our understanding of cellu-lar plasticity and its implications for health, energy, and ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Explainable artificial intelligence relates perovskite luminescence images to current-voltage metrics

As the demand for low-cost, high-efficiency solar energy technologies grows, metal halide perovskite (MHP) solar cells have emerged as a promising candidate for next-generation photovoltaics due to their high power conversion efficiencies. However, their poor durability and issues with manufacturing consistency remain significant barriers to commercialization. In this work, we develop deep learning models to support materials characterization and provide insight into features and processes influencing performance. The models are trained using transfer learning of a pretrained model to predict relevant current-voltage (IV) metrics based on different combinations of input electroluminescence (EL) and photoluminescence (PL) images of MHP devices. We examine which image types are most informative in accurately predicting different IV metrics. Additionally, we use explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to provide insights into specific spatial features in the devices that drive differences in performance. We find that stabilized luminescence images (e.g. those collected after biasing the devices for at least 1 min) are better for predicting metrics of open-circuit voltage (by PL) and short-circuit current (by PL with EL), but that predicting fill factor and overall power output may use the time-evolution of EL images. Based on attribution masks generated by integrated gradients for each device performance metric, we further suggest different loss mechanisms associated with categories of large and small spatial defects. Overall, this case study highlights the potential applicability of XAI methodology for streamlining MHP device analysis and accelerating detailed understanding of the relationships between spatial defects and impacts on performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Effect of Pressure and Temperature on Carbon Dioxide Reduction at a Plasmonically Active Silver Cathode

Here, carbon dioxide reduction at a plasmonically active silver cathode was investigated by varying the pressure and temperature at multiple applied potentials under both dark and illuminated conditions to understand the mechanism of selectivity changes driven by plasmon-enhanced electrochemical conversion. Carbon dioxide partial pressures (P Co 2 ) from 0.2 to 1 atm were studied during linear sweep voltammetry and chronoamperometry at -0.7, -0.9, and -1.1 V RHE . At a given applied overpotential the total current density increased with increasing P Co 2 in both the dark and the light, but there were significant differences in the Tafel behavior between dark and illuminated conditions. The reduction of CO 2 to carbon monoxide (CO) was found to have first-order behavior with respect to P Co 2 at all applied potentials in both the dark and the light, likely indicating no change in the rate-determining step upon illumination. Activity for the hydrogen (H 2 ) evolution reaction decreased with increasing P Co 2 at slightly different rates in the dark and the light at each applied potential, making it unclear if light is influencing CO or H 2 intermediate adsorbate coverage. Both formate and methanol production showed no dependence on P Co 2 under any conditions, but the true reaction orders may be masked by the much higher activity for CO and H 2 at the silver cathode. The investigation of product distribution with temperature at 14, 22, and 32°C at -0.7, -0.9, and -1.1 V RHE in both the dark and the light demonstrated that the selectivity changes observed upon illumination are not caused by local heating of the cathode surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Verifying infectious disease scenario planning for geographically diverse populations

In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, the literature saw a spike in publications for epidemic models, and a renewed interest in capturing contact networks and geographic movement of populations. There remains a general lack of consensus in the modeling community around best practices for spatiotemporal epi-modeling, specifically as it pertains to the infection rate formulation and the underlying contact or mixing model. We mathematically verify several common modeling assumptions in the literature, to prove when certain choices can provide consistent results across different geographic resolutions, population densities and patterns, and mixing assumptions. The most common infection rate formulation, a computationally low cost per capita infection rate assumption, fails the consistency tests for heterogeneous populations and gravity-weighting assumptions. Future modeling efforts in spatiotemporal disease modeling should be wary of this limitation, particularly when working with more heterogeneous or sparse populations. Our results provide guidance for testing that a model preserves desirable properties even when model inputs mask potential problems due to symmetry or homogeneity. We also provide a recipe for performing this type of verification, strengthening decision support tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The importance of capturing power system operational details in resource adequacy assessments

Traditional methods for assessing the resource adequacy (RA) of a power system are becoming obsolete due to emerging trends such as the increasing deployment of variable renewable energy and storage. Consequently, analysts are recommending that RA be assessed using a Monte Carlo simulation approach that models chronological power system operations over many instances of possible operating conditions. However, this approach is necessarily more complex and computationally demanding, which is an obstacle to real-world implementation. Here, in this study, we investigate which operational details of power systems are important to capture in order to accurately evaluate a system's RA, versus details that add complexity but do not meaningfully affect RA results. To do so, we develop a probabilistic RA assessment framework by adapting an existing production cost model and apply it to a case study based on the IEEE Reliability Test System. Our results indicate that multi-year data, storage dispatch, and transmission limits are key details to incorporate. Accurate RA results can be obtained using non-economic dispatch strategies as long as they are coordinated with detailed operational strategies. We also demonstrate how popular expectation-based RA metrics can mask important differences in the characteristics of loss of load events.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Activity model for 36 elements in Fe-Ni-Si-S-C liquids with application to terrestrial planet accretion and mantle geochemistry: New data for Ru, Re, Pt, Os, Ti, Nb, and Ta

Understanding siderophile element partitioning between metal and silicate melts under diverse conditions can be used to place important constraints on the materials and conditions of planetary accretion and core formation, as well as post core formation processes. However, the effects of Si on the partitioning and activity coefficients for these elements are not well known, despite Si likely being one of the dominant light elements in Earth’s core. To address this gap in understanding, we have undertaken a systematic study of the highly siderophile elements Re, Pt, Os, and Ru, and the refractory lithophile elements Nb, Ta and Ti at 1600 °C and 1 GPa, to derive epsilon interaction parameters for these elements in FeSi metallic liquids. Positive epsilon interaction parameters were measured for Nb, Ta, Ti, Ru, Re, Pt, and Os, indicating that dissolved Si in Fe liquids causes a decrease in their metal/silicate partition coefficients (or ‘silicophobic’ behavior). Furthermore, ε$_{Re, Os, or Ru}^{Si}$ > ε$_{Re, Os, or Ru}^{S}$ which means Si causes a larger decrease in D(metal/silicate) than S, and the chalcophile behavior expected from some elements will be completely masked by the presence of Si in a metallic liquid. The new parameters are used to update an activity model that now includes 36 siderophile elements in Fe-Ni-Si-S-C liquids (27 trace elements considered here). Systematic assessment of these 27 elements shows which have the strongest affinity for Si, C, and S, and also how activity coefficients for these elements would vary during accretion and core formation in Earth, Mars, and Mercury of widely differing fO 2 and core compositional conditions. The activity model is combined with new partitioning expressions for Mo, W, Cr, Re Ru, Pt, and Os and applied to aspects of post core formation mantle geochemistry of Earth, Mars, and Mercury. Our updated expressions show that the BSE Mo/W ratio can easily be achieved with metal/silicate partitioning during growth of the Earth, whereas Re, Os and Ru become lower than and highly fractionated compared with BSE values during core formation and accretion, and thus nearly 99% of their BSE abundances are likely contributed by late accretion. Ru isotopes should be a very good indicator of the source material for the late accretion. The high Pt/Os and Re/Os developed in a deepening magma ocean during the growth of the Earth, indicates 186 Os and 187 Os isotopes could be coupled if this ancient material remained isolated and subsequently became entrained in mantle plumes and measured in surficial lavas. The extent to which this occurred will be limited by the low Os content of this ancient material, thus requiring mixing as a major component in plume sources. Martian mantle Hf/W ratio stays low during accretion and core formation modelling, suggesting that W isotope anomalies are more likely due to solid/liquid silicate fractionation than to core formation. Finally, Ti contents measured by MESSENGER at Mercury’s surface can be explained by segregation of either a metallic core (IW-6 to -8) or metallic core + sulfide (IW-4 to -7.5) followed by mantle melting.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

The EGS Collab project: Outcomes and lessons learned from hydraulic fracture stimulations in crystalline rock at 1.25 and 1.5 km depth

With the goal of better understanding stimulation in crystalline rock for improving enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), the EGS Collab Project performed a series of stimulations and flow tests at 1.25 and 1.5 km depths. The tests were performed in two well-instrumented testbeds in the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, United States. The testbed for Experiment 1 at 1.5 km depth contained two open wells for injection and production and six instrumented monitoring wells surrounding the targeted stimulation zone. Four multi-step stimulation tests targeting hydraulic fracturing and nearly year-long ambient temperature and chilled water flow tests were performed in Experiment 1. The testbed for Experiments 2 and 3 was at 1.25 km depth and contained five open wells in an outwardly fanning five-spot pattern and two fans of well-instrumented monitoring wells surrounding the targeted stimulation zone. Experiment 2 targeted shear stimulation, and Experiment 3 targeted low-flow, high-flow, and oscillating pressure stimulation strategies. Hydraulic fracturing was successful in Experiments 1 and 3 in generating a connected system wherein injected water could be collected. However, the resulting flow was distributed dynamically, and not entirely collected at the anticipated production well. Thermal breakthrough was not observed in the production well, but that could have been masked by the Joule-Thomson effect. Shear stimulation in Experiment 2 did not occur - despite attempting to pressurize the fractures most likely to shear - because of the inability to inject water into a mostly-healed fracture, and the low shear-to-normal stress ratio. The EGS Collab experiments are described to provide a background for lessons learned on topics including induced seismicity, the correlation between seismicity and permeability, distributed and dynamic flow systems, thermoelastic and pressure effects, shear stimulation, local geology, thermal breakthrough, monitoring stimulation, grouting boreholes, modeling, and system management.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Optimizing fluvial flood mitigation strategies: A multi-objective approach for cost-effective and socially-aware infrastructure feasibility analysis

Effective levee planning must balance capital cost, risk reduction, and community priorities. These objectives are rarely optimized together. This study presents a feasibility phase, simulationin-the-loop framework that couples terrain-based flood modeling with a socially aware multiobjective optimizer. Flood risk is measured as Expected Annual Exposed Population (EAEP), obtained by integrating exposure over Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) nodes, mirroring the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) expected-annual formulation but with people rather than dollars. Exposure per scenario is computed by overlaying binary inundation masks with a population surface at the tract level. Distributional fairness is encoded through a Group Benefit Share (GBS) constraint that requires high-SVI tracts to receive at least a baseline share of annualized benefits. Capital cost is represented by a height-dependent unit-cost model suitable for screening. This study addresses the two-objective problem, minimize cost and expected annual exposure subject to the GBS constraint, using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and leveraging Pareto front for feasibility phase decision making. Implemented with terrain-based flood modeling, GeoFlood, for rapid scenario evaluation, the framework is demonstrated in Southeast Texas. The results reveal clear trade-offs among cost, risk, and social benefits and identify non-dominated levee height configurations that satisfy the benefit-share floor. The contributions are a scalable decision support method that operationalizes expected annual population-based risk, embeds enforceable benefit-sharing guarantees, and uses lightweight simulation to explore large design spaces before higher fidelity design stages.

Flood mitigation↗

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗

Structural basis of heme scavenging by the ChtA and HtaA hemophores in Corynebacterium diphtheriae

Corynebacterium diphtheriae causes diphtheria, a potentially fatal infectious disease that damages tissues in the upper respiratory tract. In order to proliferate, this pathogen acquires the essential nutrient iron from heme (iron-protoporphyrin IX) primarily found in human hemoglobin (Hb). C. diphtheriae secretes ChtA and HtaA hemophore proteins that bind ferric heme (hemin) via conserved region (CR) domains. Here, we demonstrate that their CR domains scavenge hemin after it is spontaneously released from Hb, and define the structural basis of hemin binding to ChtA and the N-terminal CR domain from HtaA by determining X-ray crystal structures of their protein-hemin complexes. Resonance Raman and electron paramagnetic resonance experiments demonstrate that the CR domains from ChtA and HtaA engage in pentacoordinate hemin binding through a conserved iron-tyrosyl linkage, though variations in their hemin pockets alter the way they stabilize the axial tyrosine and mask hemin’s metal. The importance of these interactions is probed using isothermal titration calorimetry experiments, which represent the first quantitative assessment of CR-hemin affinity and reveal that ChtA binds hemin via an enthalpically driven process. Hemin partitioning experiments using native mass spectrometry demonstrate that the cohort of CR domains within C. diphtheriae ’s hemin-uptake system have dissociation constants for hemin between 0.8 and 22 nM, raising the possibility that affinity differences contribute to the directional flow of hemin into the cell. Collectively, the results of this work provide insight into how C. diphtheriae and other pathogenic and commensal corynebacterium species utilize CR domains to scavenge iron rich hemin from their environment.

Corynebacterium diphtheriae↗

Arm and shoulder muscle segmentation in axial MRI with UNet deep learning model

Quantifying individual upper-limb muscle volumes from MRI provides key insight into muscle-specific strength, deficits, and adaptations. Manual delineation is the gold standard but time‑intensive, and the performance of current deep learning approaches, particularly for small or anatomically complex muscles, remains incompletely characterized. We evaluated a state‑of‑the‑art deep learning framework across the entire upper limb and analyzed factors governing segmentation performance, with attention to the forearm. Three previously published MRI datasets (1.5 T, 3D GRE T1‑weighted; total n = 39) spanning young, middle‑aged, and older adults were curated and quality‑checked, including expert manual segmentations for 31 muscles. Following multiclass mask reconstruction, we trained three 3D nnU‑Net multiclass models matched to the muscle subsets present across datasets, using five‑fold cross‑validation and a composite Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) + cross entropy loss. Segmentation accuracy was assessed with DSC. Performance varied across muscles (mean DSC = 0.806 ± 0.098), ranging from 0.920 (Deltoid) to 0.461 (Extensor pollicis brevis). In uncertainty‑weighted regressions, muscle volume was positively associated with DSC (R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001), whereas training segmentation count and muscle orientation showed negligible associations (R2 ≤ 0.06). A weighted mixed‑effects model identified volume as the strongest evaluated predictor, explaining 23.9% of variance in DSC; orientation and training count each contributed <1%, leaving 61.5% unexplained. These results indicate that deep learning–based segmentation can accurately quantify muscle volume for many upper‑limb muscles but remains constrained for small, low‑contrast forearm muscles.

Gillespie, Samuel↗

Surface Conversion of Single-Crystal Bi 2 Se 3 to β-In 2 Se 3

In this work, we demonstrate that the surface layers of single-crystal layered-2D Bi 2 Se 3 can be converted to layered-2D rhombohedral ß-In 2 Se 3 by annealing under a trimethylindium (TMIn) flux. Samples were prepared in a metalorganic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) chamber, then transferred under vacuum to a surface analysis chamber for analysis with low-energy electron diffraction (LEED) and Auger electron spectroscopy. Additional ex situ characterization included x-ray diffraction, transmission-electron microscopy (TEM), energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS) elemental mapping, and Raman spectroscopy. The resulting single-crystal ß-In 2 Se 3 adopts the rhombohedral crystal structure (space group R-3m) and orientation of the underlying Bi 2 Se 3 , and the excess Bi atoms generated by this process create an underlying region of Bi-rich Bi x Se y . Due to the difference in bandgap between Bi 2 Se 3 and In 2 Se 3 , this conversion reaction presents a pathway to lateral heterojunctions if only selected regions are converted by masking the surface to spatially define the TMIn exposure. The conversion may also have implications for heteroepitaxy, because the in-plane lattice constants of Bi 2 Se 3 and In 2 Se 3 (0001) surfaces match those of InP and GaAs (111), respectively, and the natural cleavage planes of a layered-2D crystal facilitate substrate removal and reuse.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Effects of natural zeolites on field-scale geologic noble gas transport

Improving predictive models for noble gas transport through natural materials at the field-scale is an essential component of improving US nuclear monitoring capabilities. Several field-scale experiments with a gas transport component have been conducted at the Nevada National Security Site (Non-Proliferation Experiment, Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment). However, the models associated with these experiments have not treated zeolite minerals as gas adsorbing phases. This is significant as zeolites are a common alteration mineral with a high abundance at these field sites and are shown here to significantly fractionate noble gases during field-scale transport. This fractionation and associated retardation can complicate gas transport predictions by reducing the signal-to-noise ratio to the detector (e.g. mass spectrometers or radiation detectors) enough to mask the signal or make the data difficult to interpret. Omitting adsorption-related retardation data of noble gases in predictive gas transport models therefore results in systematic errors in model predictions where zeolites are present.Herein is presented noble gas adsorption data collected on zeolitized and non-zeolitized tuff. Experimental results were obtained using a unique piezometric adsorption system designed and built for this study. Data collected were then related to pure-phase mineral analyses conducted on clinoptilolite, mordenite, and quartz. These results quantify the adsorption capacity of materials present in field-scale systems, enabling the modeling of low-permeability rocks as significant sorption reservoirs vital to bulk transport predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine-learning predictions of the shale wells’ performance

The ultra-low permeability nature of shale reservoirs leads to an extended linear flow and necessitates horizontal wells with multi-stage engineered fractures to efficiently extract hydrocarbons resources. These artificially-generated and naturally-occurring fractures form complex networks that create complex flow regimes which control oil production. These fractures are neither identical nor equally-spaced, which leads to a production profile with a masked onset of the boundary-dominated flow. The combination of the extended linear flow with the indeterminate onset of the boundary-dominated flow challenges the current deterministic analytic approaches to forecast the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). In this work, we propose a novel machine-learning approach which overcomes these challenges and provides reliable EUR estimates based on field-wide analyses. We implement a novel unsupervised machine learning (ML) methodology, which allows for automatic identification of the optimal number of features (signals) present in the data based on non-negative matrix/tensor factorization coupled with k-means clustering incorporating regularization and physics constraints. In the presented analyses, the input data to the ML algorithm is the available (public) production history from the field collected at existing unconventional reservoirs. We validate our approach through hindcasting of the production data, where we achieved an excellent agreement. In addition, our approach is able to identify the poorly-performing wells, which could benefit from early refracing. Our approach provides fast and accurate estimations of the well performance without presumptions about the state of the well or the flow regime.

03 NATURAL GAS↗