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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Technical Assessment of the Application of Digital Twin and Prognostic Tools for Condition Monitoring

This report was prepared for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to present use cases of the application of advanced technologies toward meeting the current and future regulatory requirements for maintenance and condition monitoring of structures, systems, and components (SSCs). The advanced technologies considered in this work, collectively referred to as digital twin (DT) technologies, are advanced sensors and instrumentation, data analytics, machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI), and physics-based models. The report presents two use cases of reactor coolant pumps (RCPs) and heat pipes in nuclear power plants (NPPs) with technical and regulatory considerations and opportunities in using advanced technologies for conditional monitoring. Key findings from the exploration of these considerations are as follows: - Uncertainties in sensor data and model predictions must be rigorously addressed through validation and verification processes - Regulatory compliance is paramount, necessitating data driven models to be developed in line with existing codes and standards, as well as considering potential future guidelines for advanced reactors - Explainability and transparency in ML/AI models are essential for developing operator trust and regulatory review, including methods that enhance the interpretability of complex data-driven predictions - Condition monitoring programs must be evaluated for their effectiveness in reducing maintenance-preventable function failures (MPFF) and aligning with plant performance criteria - The deployment of advanced technologies for condition monitoring could lead to a transition from periodic to continuous monitoring, thereby optimizing maintenance schedules - Collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders, regulatory bodies, and technology developers are crucial for the successful adoption of advanced technologies for condition monitoring systems in nuclear facilities In summary, the introduction of advanced technologies into condition monitoring programs represents a significant leap forward in the domain of NPP maintenance. By harnessing the capabilities of advanced sensors, data analytics, and ML/AI, NPP operators can transition from a time-based to a condition-based maintenance approach. This shift can potentially enhance the reliability and safety of critical plant components while optimizing maintenance efforts and minimizing unnecessary outages. The NRC is continuing to explore the regulatory aspects of advanced technologies as part of inservice inspection and inservice testing (ISI and IST) programs by pursuing additional research in this technical area.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Peak Prediction Using Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) for Edge Computing ASICs Targeting Scientific Applications

High data rate detectors play an integral part in scientific research and their development is actively pursued at High Energy Physics (HEP) facilities around the world. Edge Machine Learning (ML) offers the ability to reduce data rates by integrating ML algorithms into Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) on the front end electronics. In this work, we explore a set of neural network architectures for predicting the peak amplitudes in the detector's sensor response. We have designed and synthesized several MLP based neural networks comparing their inference accuracy, power consumption, and area targeting for minimal latency. The neural networks are synthesized in a commercial 65nm process. The effect of quantizing the network's weights and biases on hardware performance and area is reported. We also conduct design space exploration to compare between design alternatives

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Multiple Data Streams for Gearbox Bearing Fault Prediction Through Machine-Learning Models

Operations and maintenance (O&M) cost of wind plant accounts up to 30% of total energy cost, which can be reduced through continuous monitoring and successfully detecting incipient wind turbine failures. To accomplish this, condition monitoring and predictive maintenance systems are being implemented in wind industry to support O&M decision making. A wide range of approaches for condition monitoring and fault prediction have been developed. These approaches generally use historical data of wind turbines collected by Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system to identify patterns that lead to failure. These SCADA data show the overall condition of a wind turbine and can be leveraged to detect when the turbine's performance is degrading and to identify if a fault is developing. However, it becomes challenging to predict the failure of a specific wind turbine gearbox bearing, because the SCADA data are often not directly linked to the component. To bridge the gap, we have investigated features calculated from SCADA data using physics-based models and the gearbox design over the years. The damaged metric we used in the physics domain is frictional energy. Combining these physics domain variables with SCADA data as inputs to various machine learning models for gearbox bearing fault prediction, we have demonstrated the benefits of leveraging both physics and data domain models. It was an attempt to improve frictional-energy-based damage metric by adding data domain inputs, as we had learned that the frictional-energy-based damage metric alone is not sufficient to single out failed bearings from healthy. As condition monitoring data (either vibration or oil debris data) has become available at more and more wind plants, we would like to evaluate whether by adding the condition monitoring data can help further improve the performance of frictional-energy-based damage metric for gearbox bearing fault prediction. Both cases by modeling through various machine learning algorithms are discussed in this study along with some observations.

fault prediction↗
DOE OSTI2023

Denoising diffusion models with geometry adaptation for high fidelity calorimeter simulation

Simulation is crucial for all aspects of collider data analysis, but the available computing budget in the High Luminosity LHC era will be severely constrained. Generative machine learning models may act as surrogates to replace physics-based full simulation of particle detectors, and diffusion models have recently emerged as the state of the art for other generative tasks. Here, we introduce CaloDiffusion, a denoising diffusion model trained on the public CaloChallenge datasets to generate calorimeter showers. Our algorithm employs 3D cylindrical convolutions, which take advantage of symmetries of the underlying data representation. To handle irregular detector geometries, we augment the diffusion model with a new geometry latent mapping (GLaM) layer to learn forward and reverse transformations to a regular geometry that is suitable for cylindrical convolutions. The showers generated by our approach are nearly indistinguishable from the full simulation, as measured by several different metrics.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physics-guided Deep Learning for Power System State Estimation

In the past decade, dramatic progress has been made in the field of machine learning. This paper explores the possibility of applying deep learning in power system state estimation. Traditionally, physics-based models are used including weighted least square (WLS) or weighted least absolute value (WLAV). These models typically consider a single snapshot of the system without capturing temporal correlations of system states. In this paper, a physics-guided deep learning (PGDL) method is proposed. Specifically, inspired by autoencoders, deep neural networks (DNNs) are used to learn the temporal correlations. The estimated system states from DNNs are then checked against physics laws by running through a set of power flow equations. Hence, the proposed PGDL is both data-driven and physics-guided. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed PGDL method are compared with traditional methods in standard IEEE cases. Simulations show promising results and the applicability is further discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neural network representability of fully ionized plasma fluid model closures

The closure problem in fluid modeling is a well-known challenge to modelers aiming to accurately describe their systems of interest. Over many years, analytic formulations in a wide range of regimes have been presented but a practical, generalized fluid closure for magnetized plasmas remains an elusive goal. Here, as a first step toward constructing a novel data-based approach to this problem, we apply ever-maturing machine learning methods to assess the capability of neural network architectures to reproduce crucial physics inherent in known magnetized plasma closures. We find encouraging results, indicating the applicability of neural networks to closure physics, but also arrive at recommendations on how one should choose appropriate network architectures for the given locality properties dictated by the underlying physics of the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation and parameterization of a novel physics-constrained neural dynamics model applied to turbulent fluid flow

We report, in fluid physics, data-driven models to enhance or accelerate time to solution are becoming increasingly popular for many application domains, such as alternatives to turbulence closures, system surrogates, or for new physics discovery. In the context of reduced order models of high-dimensional time-dependent fluid systems, machine learning methods grant the benefit of automated learning from data, but the burden of a model lies on its reduced-order representation of both the fluid state and physical dynamics. In this work, we build a physics-constrained, data-driven reduced order model for Navier–Stokes equations to approximate spatiotemporal fluid dynamics in the canonical case of isotropic turbulence in a triply periodic box. The model design choices mimic numerical and physical constraints by, for example, implicitly enforcing the incompressibility constraint and utilizing continuous neural ordinary differential equations for tracking the evolution of the governing differential equation. We demonstrate this technique on a three-dimensional, moderate Reynolds number turbulent fluid flow. In assessing the statistical quality and characteristics of the machine-learned model through rigorous diagnostic tests, we find that our model is capable of reconstructing the dynamics of the flow over large integral timescales, favoring accuracy at the larger length scales. More significantly, comprehensive diagnostics suggest that physically interpretable model parameters, corresponding to the representations of the fluid state and dynamics, have attributable and quantifiable impact on the quality of the model predictions and computational complexity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Galaxy–Halo Connection through Machine Learning

Abstract Understanding the connections between galaxy stellar mass, star formation rate, and dark matter halo mass represents a key goal of the theory of galaxy formation. Cosmological simulations that include hydrodynamics, physical treatments of star formation, feedback from supernovae, and the radiative transfer of ionizing photons can capture the processes relevant for establishing these connections. The complexity of these physics can prove difficult to disentangle and obfuscate how mass-dependent trends in the galaxy population originate. Here, we train a machine-learning method called Explainable Boosting Machines (EBMs) to infer how the stellar mass and star formation rate of nearly 6 million galaxies simulated by the Cosmic Reionization on Computers project depend on the physical properties of halo mass, the peak circular velocity of the galaxy during its formation history v peak , cosmic environment, and redshift. The resulting EBM models reveal the relative importance of these properties in setting galaxy stellar mass and star formation rate, with v peak providing the most dominant contribution. Environmental properties provide substantial improvements for modeling the stellar mass and star formation rate in only ≲10% of the simulated galaxies. We also provide alternative formulations of EBM models that enable low-resolution simulations, which cannot track the interior structure of dark matter halos, to predict the stellar mass and star formation rate of galaxies computed by high-resolution simulations with detailed baryonic physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using machine learning for particle track identification in the CLAS12 detector

Particle track reconstruction is the most computationally intensive process in nuclear physics experiments. Traditional algorithms use a combinatorial approach that exhaustively tests track measurements ("hits") to identify those that form an actual particle trajectory. In this article, we describe the development of four machine learning (ML) models that assist the tracking algorithm by identifying valid track candidates from the measurements in drift chambers. Several types of machine learning models were tested, including: Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLP), Extremely Randomized Trees (ERT) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). As a result of this work, an MLP network classifier was implemented as part of the CLAS12 reconstruction software to provide the tracking code with recommended track candidates. The resulting software achieved accuracy of greater than 99% and resulted in an end-to-end speedup of 35% compared to existing algorithms.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

AI-Enabled Discovery and Physics-Based Optimization of Energy Efficient Processing Strategies for Advanced Turbine Alloys (Final Technical Report)

In this project, the multi-organizational team of academic and industrial researchers from the University of Kentucky an aerospace and energy generation OEM partner has leveraged novel Digital Process Twin (DPT) models of process/structure interactions (i.e., process-induced surface integrity) to advance a paradigm of fully integrated computational materials engineering (ICME). Using efficient process models as the core of a digital process simulator for a reinforcement learning algorithm, the team has integrated industrial data and metrics of structure/performance/energy relationships and manufacturing-related energy metrics to optimize dynamic processing parameters for significantly improved life-cycle energy efficiency of advanced γ-TiAl low-pressure turbine (LPT) alloys, as indicated by a set of design relevant parameters (e.g., residual stresses and scrap rate). The key objective and anticipated outcome of the project was at least a 10% reduction in life-cycle embodied energy for a recently developed, γ-TiAl low-pressure turbine (LPT) alloy and nickel-based superalloy Inconel 718, through the adoption of the proposed AI-enabled process optimization approach. The final project outcomes significantly exceeded this original target, realizing manufacturing-related energy efficiency improvements of more than 130% for TiAl and up to 80% for Inconel 718. Rather than following the prevailing and highly inefficient empirical paradigm, the proposed study demonstrated the feasibility of adopting a digital, physics-based process design and optimization paradigm. The recurring need for manual intervention, rework, reinspection causes significant production bottlenecks and unnecessary expense associated with delivering the requisite component quality. The OEM partner, and turbine industry in general, expect to reap significant cost and resource savings if an AI-optimized set of parameters can be applied to specific machining operations. The technical scope of the proposed project involved the paving of a realistic path towards model-based and AI-enabled Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), and away from inefficient empirical process optimization and legacy manufacturing practices, which are no longer able to efficiently process novel high-performance turbine alloy materials. The project team will address the fundamental knowledge gap that currently exists within the ICME paradigm with respect to the process/structure/performance/energy impacts of finishing processes. While significant resources have been devoted to the ‘early stages’ of manufacturing, such as alloy design, primary and secondary processing, finishing processes have not been adequately integrated within ICME. To provide an actionable path towards model-based finishing process design (e.g., machining, burnishing, grinding, polishing), we will employ a novel AI-enabled process optimization paradigm, based on a computationally efficient, physics-based process simulator. Through limited experimental work to calibrate and validate our process simulator model via an advanced in-situ characterization technique and process optimization via reinforcement learning, the project will seek to demonstrate a viable alternative to the inefficient ‘legacy’ processing strategies, empirical testing and broad scope machining learning approaches, all of which fail to adequately consider complex process physics. The project team has identified an intermetallic γ-TiAl LPT alloy, which is currently being used as part of the OEM partner’s advanced gas turbine designs. This particular alloy poses significant manufacturing challenges during finishing operations, which limit the degree to which the current turbine design can be manufactured in an energy- and cost-efficient manner. Empirical testing and numerical modeling efforts to optimize processing parameters for γ-TiAl have not been able to resolve these manufacturing challenges, so the proposed physics-based AI-enabled optimization technology would offer a truly novel and transformative capability. The multi-organizational team of academic and industry experts from the UKY and the OEM partner will work together closely to demonstrate the analytical and experimental critical function and characteristic proof of concept of this novel approach.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Sensitivity of ICF Outputs to Design Parameters in Experiments Using Machine Learning

We report building a sustainable burn platform in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) requires an understanding of the complex coupling of physical processes and the effects that key experimental design changes have on implosion performance. While simulation codes are used to model ICF implosions, incomplete physics and the need for approximations deteriorate their predictive capability. Identification of relationships between controllable design inputs and measurable outcomes can help guide the future design of experiments and development of simulation codes, which can potentially improve the accuracy of the computational models used to simulate ICF implosions. In this article, we leverage developments in machine learning (ML) and methods for ML feature importance/sensitivity analysis to identify complex relationships in ways that are difficult to process using expert judgment alone. We present work using random forest (RF) regression for prediction of yield, velocity, and other experimental outcomes given a suite of design parameters, along with an assessment of important relationships and uncertainties in the prediction model. We show that RF models are capable of learning and predicting on ICF experimental data with high accuracy, and we extract feature importance metrics that provide insight into the physical significance of different controllable design inputs for various ICF design configurations. These results can be used to augment expert intuition and simulation results for optimal design of future ICF experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atomic cluster expansion potential for large scale simulations of hydrocarbons under shock compression

We present an Atomic Cluster Expansion (ACE) machine learned potential developed for high-fidelity atomistic simulations of hydrocarbons, targeting pressures and temperatures near and above supercritical fluid regimes for molecular fluids. A diverse set of stoichiometries were covered in training, including 1:0 (pure carbon), 1:4 (methane), and 1:1 (benzene), and rich bonding environments sampled at supercritical temperatures, hydrogen rich, reactive mixtures where metastable stoichiometries arise, including 1:2 (ethylene) and 1:3 (ethane). A high-fidelity training database was constructed by performing large-scale quantum molecular dynamic simulations [density functional theory (DFT) MD] of diamond, graphite, methane, and benzene. A novel approach to selecting structures from DFT MD is also presented, which allows for the rapid selection of unique DFT MD frames from complex trajectories. Comparisons to DFT and experimental data demonstrate that the presented ACE potential accurately reproduces isotherms, carbon melting curves, radial distribution functions, and shock Hugoniots for carbon and hydrocarbon systems for pressures up to 100 GPa and temperatures up to 6000 K for hydrocarbon systems and up to 9000 K for pure carbon systems. This work delivers a potential that can be used for accurate, large-scale simulations of shocked hydrocarbons and demonstrates a methodology for fitting and validating machine learning interatomic potentials to complex molecular environments, which can be applied to energetic materials in future works.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

When do short-range atomistic machine-learning models fall short?

In this work, we explore the role of long-range interactions in atomistic machine-learning models by analyzing the effects on fitting accuracy, isolated cluster properties, and bulk thermodynamic properties. Such models have become increasingly popular in molecular simulations given their ability to learn highly complex and multi-dimensional interactions within a local environment; however, many of them fundamentally lack a description of explicit long-range interactions. In order to provide a well-defined benchmark system with precisely known pairwise interactions, we chose as the reference model a flexible version of the Extended Simple Point Charge (SPC/E) water model. Our analysis shows that while local representations are sufficient for predictions of the condensed liquid phase, the short-range nature of machine-learning models falls short in representing cluster and vapor phase properties. These findings provide an improved understanding of the role of long-range interactions in machine learning models and the regimes where they are necessary.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of electric and magnetic fields from spectral data using machine learning algorithms for Doppler-free saturation spectroscopy diagnostics

The prediction of electric and magnetic field amplitudes from atomic spectral data is critical for plasma control in fusion devices such as tokamaks. Conventional approaches that rely on physics-based models are computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time applications. In this work, we develop and benchmark three machine learning algorithms—simulation-based inference (SBI), fully connected neural networks (FCNN), and histogram-based gradient boosting regression (GBR-Hist)—to infer field intensities directly from Doppler-free saturation spectroscopy (DFSS) spectra. Synthetic datasets of spectra were generated using the EZSSS code and evaluated both with and without added Poisson noise to mimic experimental conditions. We find that SBI achieves the highest accuracy and robustness, FCNN provides a strong balance of accuracy and computational efficiency for real-time applications, and GBR-Hist offers the fastest inference but is more sensitive to noise. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the potential of machine learning to accelerate DFSS analysis and enhance its utility for plasma diagnostics and control.

Doppler-free saturation spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulating the CMS High Granularity Calorimeter with ML

Detector simulation is a key component of physics analysis and related activities in CMS. In the upcoming High Luminosity LHC era, simulation will be required to use a smaller fraction of computing in order to satisfy resource constraints. At the same time, CMS will be upgraded with the new High Granularity Calorimeter (HGCal), which requires significantly more resources to simulate than the existing CMS calorimeters. This computing challenge motivates the use of generative machine learning models as surrogates to replace full physics-based simulation. We study the application of state-of-the-art diffusion models to simulate particle showers in the CMS HGCal. We will discuss methods to overcome the challenges posed by the high-dimensional, irregular geometry of the HGCal. The quality of the showers produced by the diffusion model will be assessed by comparison to the full GEANT4-based simulation. The increase in simulation throughput will be quantified and methods to accelerate the diffusion model inference will also be discussed.

Amram, Oz↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contextually aware roadside radiation measurement testbed

Here we demonstrate a contextually aware multimodal roadside radiation measurement detection testbed for traffic monitoring applications in nuclear nonproliferation. Many variables in traffic such as vehicle or cargo size, mass, speed, shape, and distance of closest approach can have significant impacts on the radiation measured from a vehicle-transported radiation source. These factors can lead to uncertainties in the analysis of the radiation source, especially for lower-strength radiation sources of interest. Our testbed, known as the Multimodal Measurement System (MMS) uses non-radiation sensors including magnetometers, geophones, radiofrequency receivers, cameras, and LiDAR to extract contextual information about vehicles passing by the system. These contextual data can then be fused with data from radiation measurements to increase the system’s sensitivity and accuracy in nuclear threat detection applications. This work describes the instrumentation of the MMS and its data acquisition pipeline. Furthermore, we describe the pre-analysis performed on the raw multimodal data streams for data fusion, and the high-level machine learning analyses for detection and characterization. The variety of sensors within the MMS provides a valuable testbed that can be used to identify the combinations of contextual sensors that provide the greatest improvements to radiation source detection and characterization within the restrictions for various proliferation detection applications. The MMS is also modular so that additional combinations of sensors can be explored in the future.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supervised and unsupervised machine learning of structural phases of polymers adsorbed to nanowires

Here, we identify configurational phases and structural transitions in a polymer nanotube composite by means of machine learning. We employ various unsupervised dimensionality reduction methods, conventional neural networks, as well as the confusion method, an unsupervised neural-network-based approach. We find neural networks are able to reliably recognize all configurational phases that have been found previously in experiment and simulation. Furthermore, we locate the boundaries between configurational phases in a way that removes human intuition or bias. This could be done before only by relying on preconceived, ad hoc order parameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗