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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

The Illumination of Thunderclouds by Lightning: 3. Retrieving Optical Source Altitude

Abstract Optical space‐based lightning sensors such as the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) detect and geolocate lightning by recording rapid changes in cloud top illumination. While lightning locations can be determined to within a pixel on the GLM imaging array, these instruments are not individually able to natively report lightning altitude. It has previously been shown that thunderclouds are illuminated differently based on the altitude of the optical source. In this study, we examine how altitude information can be extracted from the spatial distributions of GLM energy recorded from each optical pulse. We match GLM “groups” with Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) source data that accurately report the 3‐D positions of coincident Radio‐Frequency (RF) emitters. We then use machine learning methods to predict the mean LMA source altitudes matched to GLM groups using metrics from the optical data that describe the amplitude, breadth, and texture of the group spatial energy distribution. The resulting model can predict the LMA mean source altitude from GLM group data with a median absolute error of <1.5 km, which is sufficient to determine the location of the charge layer where the optical energy originated. This model is able to capture changes to the source altitude distribution in response to convective processes in the thunderstorm, and the GLM predictions can reveal the vertical structure of individual flashes ‐ enabling 3‐D flash geolocation with GLM for the first time. Future work will account for differences in thunderstorm charge/precipitation structures and viewing angle across the GLM Field of View.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Learning turbulent flows with generative models for super resolution and sparse flow reconstruction

Neural operators are promising surrogates for dynamical systems but when trained with standard L 2 losses they tend to oversmooth fine-scale turbulent structures. Here, we show that combining operator learning with generative modeling overcomes this limitation. We consider three practical turbulent-flow challenges where conventional neural operators fail: spatio-temporal super-resolution, forecasting, and sparse flow reconstruction. For Schlieren jet super-resolution, an adversarially trained neural operator (adv-NO) reduces the energy-spectrum error by 15 × while preserving sharp gradients at neural operator-like inference cost. For 3D homogeneous isotropic turbulence, adv-NO trained on only 160 timesteps from a single trajectory forecasts accurately for five eddy-turnover times and offers 114 × wall-clock speed-up at inference than the baseline diffusion-based forecasters, enabling near-real-time rollouts. For reconstructing cylinder wake flows from highly sparse Particle Tracking Velocimetry-like inputs, a conditional generative model infers full 3D velocity and pressure fields with correct phase alignment and statistics. These advances enable accurate reconstruction and forecasting at low compute cost, bringing near-real-time analysis and control within reach in experimental and computational fluid mechanics.

Fluid dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2021

NENCI-2021. I. A large benchmark database of non-equilibrium non-covalent interactions emphasizing close intermolecular contacts

In this work, we present NENCI-2021, a benchmark database of ~8000 Non-Equilibirum Non-Covalent Interaction energies for a large and diverse selection of intermolecular complexes of biological and chemical relevance. To meet the growing demand for large and high-quality quantum mechanical data in the chemical sciences, NENCI-2021 starts with the 101 molecular dimers in the widely used S66 and S101 databases and extends the scope of these works by (i) including 40 cation–π and anion–π complexes, a fundamentally important class of non-covalent interactions that are found throughout nature and pose a substantial challenge to theory, and (ii) systematically sampling all 141 intermolecular potential energy surfaces (PESs) by simultaneously varying the intermolecular distance and intermolecular angle in each dimer. Designed with an emphasis on close contacts, the complexes in NENCI-2021 were generated by sampling seven intermolecular distances along each PES (ranging from 0.7× to 1.1× the equilibrium separation) and nine intermolecular angles per distance (five for each ion–π complex), yielding an extensive database of 7763 benchmark intermolecular interaction energies (E int ) obtained at the coupled-cluster with singles, doubles, and perturbative triples/complete basis set [CCSD(T)/CBS] level of theory. The E int values in NENCI-2021 span a total of 225.3 kcal/mol, ranging from -38.5 to +186.8 kcal/mol, with a mean (median) E int value of -1.06 kcal/mol (-2.39 kcal/mol). In addition, a wide range of intermolecular atom-pair distances are also present in NENCI-2021, where close intermolecular contacts involving atoms that are located within the so-called van der Waals envelope are prevalent—these interactions, in particular, pose an enormous challenge for molecular modeling and are observed in many important chemical and biological systems. A detailed symmetry-adapted perturbation theory (SAPT)- based energy decomposition analysis also confirms the diverse and comprehensive nature of the intermolecular binding motifs present in NENCI-2021, which now includes a significant number of primarily induction-bound dimers (e.g., cation–π complexes). NENCI-2021 thus spans all regions of the SAPT ternary diagram, thereby warranting a new four-category classification scheme that includes complexes primarily bound by electrostatics (3499), induction (700), dispersion (1372), or mixtures thereof (2192). A critical error analysis performed on a representative set of intermolecular complexes in NENCI-2021 demonstrates that the E int values provided herein have an average error of ±0.1 kcal/mol, even for complexes with strongly repulsive E int values, and maximum errors of ±0.2–0.3 kcal/mol (i.e., ~±1.0 kJ/mol) for the most challenging cases. For these reasons, we expect that NENCI-2021 will play an important role in the testing, training, and development of next-generation classical and polarizable force fields, density functional theory approximations, wavefunction theory methods, and machine learning based intra- and inter-molecular potentials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Detection of topological materials with machine learning

Databases compiled using ab initio and symmetry-based calculations now contain tens of thousands of topological insulators and topological semimetals. This makes the application of modern machine learning methods to topological materials possible. Using gradient boosted trees, we show how to construct a machine learning model which can predict the topology of a given existent material with an accuracy of 90%. Such predictions are orders of magnitude faster than actual ab initio calculations. In this work, we use machine learning models to probe how different material properties affect topological features. Notably, we observe that topology is mostly determined by the “coarse-grained” chemical composition and crystal symmetry and depends little on the particular positions of atoms in the crystal lattice. We identify the sources of our model's errors and we discuss approaches to overcome them.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unified architecture for data-driven metadata tagging of building automation systems

This article presents a Unified Architecture (UA) for automated point tagging of Building Automation System (BAS) data, based on a combination of data-driven approaches. Advanced energy analytics applications—including fault detection and diagnostics and supervisory control—have emerged as a significant opportunity for improving the performance of our built environment. Effective application of these analytics depends on harnessing structured data from the various building control and monitoring systems, but typical BAS implementations do not employ any standardized metadata schema. While standards such as Project Haystack and Brick Schema have been developed to address this issue, the process of structuring the data, i.e., tagging the points to apply a standard metadata schema, has, to date, been a manual process. This process is typically costly, labor-intensive, and error-prone. In this work we address this gap by proposing a UA that automates the process of point tagging by leveraging the data accessible through connection to the BAS, including time-series data and the raw point names. The UA intertwines supervised classification and unsupervised clustering techniques from machine learning and leverages both their deterministic and probabilistic outputs to inform the point tagging process. Furthermore, we extend the UA to embed additional input and output data-processing modules that are designed to address the challenges associated with the real-time deployment of this automation solution. We test the UA on two datasets for real-life buildings: (i) commercial retail buildings and (ii) office buildings from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) campus. We report the proposed methodology correctly applied 85–90% and 70–75% of the tags in each of these test scenarios, respectively for two significantly different building types used for testing UA's fully-functional prototype. The proposed UA, therefore, offers promising approach for automatically tagging BAS data as it reaches close to 90% accuracy. Further building upon this framework to algorithmically identify the equipment type and their relationships is an apt future research direction to pursue.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grey-box and ANN-based building models for multistep-ahead prediction of indoor temperature to implement model predictive control

Model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems present an opportunity to lower building energy consumption and operational costs. Such approaches rely on the development of a model to precisely forecast building thermal dynamics, such as room air temperature or heating/cooling rate, and make control-related decisions. The control-oriented modeling of building energy systems should be accurate in predicting indoor conditions and present low computational complexity. These features are the key challenge of implementing advanced control methods such as MPC. Extant studies on building modeling for MPC have focused on step-ahead forecasting techniques to forecast building thermal dynamics, while multistep-ahead forecasting is essential. Moreover, machine learning model suitable in case of the domain-based engineering expertise are also not available. To this aim, we perform a comparative analysis of the grey-box model based on a resistance-capacitance (RC) thermal network and a machine learning model composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) for multistep-ahead prediction of building thermal dynamics using current and historical data. Actual experimental data obtained from the Flexible Research Platform (FRP) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US) are used for estimation and validation purposes. The average root mean squared error (RMSE) of the grey-box and ANN models are 0.89 °C and 1.02°C, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that the grey-box model outperforms the ANN model in the considered validation periods in terms of accuracy and prediction stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A machine learning approach for efficient multi-dimensional integration

Many physics problems involve integration in multi-dimensional space whose analytic solution is not available. The integrals can be evaluated using numerical integration methods, but it requires a large computational cost in some cases, so an efficient algorithm plays an important role in solving the physics problems. We propose a novel numerical multi-dimensional integration algorithm using machine learning (ML). After training a ML regression model to mimic a target integrand, the regression model is used to evaluate an approximation of the integral. Then, the difference between the approximation and the true answer is calculated to correct the bias in the approximation of the integral induced by ML prediction errors. Because of the bias correction, the final estimate of the integral is unbiased and has a statistically correct error estimation. Three ML models of multi-layer perceptron, gradient boosting decision tree, and Gaussian process regression algorithms are investigated. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on six different families of integrands that typically appear in physics problems at various dimensions and integrand difficulties. The results show that, for the same total number of integrand evaluations, the new algorithm provides integral estimates with more than an order of magnitude smaller uncertainties than those of the VEGAS algorithm in most of the test cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Benchmarking and Fidelity Response Theory of High-Fidelity Rydberg Entangling Gates

The fidelity of entangling operations is a key figure of merit in quantum information processing, especially in the context of quantum error correction. High-fidelity entangling gates in neutral atoms have seen remarkable advancement recently. A full understanding of error sources and their respective contributions to gate infidelity will enable the prediction of fundamental limits on quantum gates in neutral atom platforms with realistic experimental constraints. In this work, we implement the time-optimal Rydberg controlled-Z (CZ) gate, design a circuit to benchmark its fidelity, and achieve a fidelity, averaged over symmetric input states, of 0.9971 ( 5 ) , downward corrected for leakage error, which together with our recent work [Nature 634, 321–327 (2024)] forms a new state of the art for neutral atoms. The remaining infidelity is explained by an error model, consistent with our experimental results over a range of gate speeds, with varying contributions from different error sources. Further, we develop a fidelity response theory to efficiently predict infidelity from laser noise with nontrivial power spectral densities and derive scaling laws of infidelity with gate speed. Besides its capability of predicting gate fidelity, we also utilize the fidelity response theory to compare and optimize gate protocols, to learn laser frequency noise, and to study the noise response for quantum simulation tasks. Finally, we predict that a CZ gate fidelity of ≳ 0.999 is feasible with realistic experimental upgrades. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Tsai, Richard Bing-Shiun (ORCID:0000000286758677)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of stacked ensemble machine learning for the detection of surrogate plutonium contamination in soil via LIBS

Supervised machine learning methods have demonstrated increased utility for the quantification of lanthanide and actinide elements in atomic spectroscopy applications. This study implements laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the identification of plutonium surrogate material (CeO 2 ) in soil matrices by training supervised machine learning methods on the recorded spectral data. A bagged ensemble using Random Forest yields the highest sensitivity predictions with a detection limit of 0.015 wt.% CeO 2 . However, high precision in Ce content prediction required the use of a stacked ensemble regression, which provided the superlative Ce quantification model with an error of 0.107% and a detection limit of 0.022 wt.%. Furthermore, the high performance of the stacked ensemble demonstrates its potential to enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of nuclear contaminant detection using field-deployable spectroscopic analyzers in real-world scenarios.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Downscaled hyper-resolution (400 m) gridded datasets of daily precipitation and temperature (2008–2019) for the East–Taylor subbasin (western United States)

Abstract. High-resolution gridded datasets of meteorological variables are needed in order to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in complex mountainous terrain. Across the United States, the highest available spatial resolution of gridded datasets of daily meteorological records is approximately 800 m. This work presents gridded datasets of daily precipitation and mean temperature for the East–Taylor subbasin (in the western United States) covering a 12-year period (2008–2019) at a high spatial resolution (400 m). The datasets are generated using a downscaling framework that uses data-driven models to learn relationships between climate variables and topography. We observe that downscaled datasets of precipitation and mean temperature exhibit smoother spatial gradients (while preserving the spatial variability) when compared to their coarser counterparts. Additionally, we also observe that when downscaled datasets are upscaled to the original resolution (800 m), the mean residual error is almost zero, ensuring no bias when compared with the original data. Furthermore, the downscaled datasets are observed to be linearly related to elevation, which is consistent with the methodology underlying the original 800 m product. Finally, we validate the spatial patterns exhibited by downscaled datasets via an example use case that models lidar-derived estimates of snowpack. The presented dataset constitutes a valuable resource to resolve fine-scale hydrological gradients in the mountainous terrain of the East–Taylor subbasin, which is an important study area in the context of water security for the southwestern United States and Mexico. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.15485/1822259 (Mital et al., 2021).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synthesis of CdZnTeSe single crystals for room temperature radiation detector fabrication: mitigation of hole trapping effects using a convolutional neural network

In this article, we report the growth of Cd 0.9 Zn 0.1 Te 0.97 Se 0.03 (CZTS) wide bandgap semiconductor single crystals for room temperature gamma-ray detection using a modified vertical Bridgman method. Charge transport properties measured in the radiation detectors, fabricated from the grown CZTS crystals, indicated signs of hole trapping. Hole traps inhibit high-resolution radiation detection especially for energetic gamma rays. Machine learning (ML) applications are gaining tremendous mpetus in improving device and sensor performance by compensating for limi tations arising from such intrinsic material properties. In this article, we describe a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) that has demonstrated remarkable efficiency in identifying the energy of a gamma photon detected by a CZTS detector. The CNN has been trained using simulated data that resemble output pulses from actual CZTS detectors when exposed to 662-keV gamma photons. The device properties required for the simulation have been derived from radiation detection measurements on a real Cd 0.9 Zn 0.1 Te 0.97 Se 0.03 detector fabricated in our laboratory. The CNN has been trained with detector pulses arising through photoelectric (PE) and Compton scattering (CS) separately. The percentage error in predicting the detected energies, within an extremely small duration of 0.28 ms, was found to be lower than 0.1% for gamma energies above 50 keV and for training datasets con taining PE and CS events separately. The CNN was also validated for a mixed PE and CS dataset to obtain a prediction error of 1%. Additionally, the effect of detector resolution on the efficiency of the CNN was also explored.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

First estimation of high-resolution solar photovoltaic resource maps over China with Fengyun-4A satellite and machine learning

Fengyun-4A (FY-4A), which is the latest-generation Chinese geostationary meteorological satellite, measures solar reflection and thermal emission with high temporal, spatial, and spectral resolutions. It is expected to be highly beneficial for solar resource assessment and forecasting in China. This study is the first to estimate, using FY-4A and a random forest model, the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) at a 4-km–15-min spatio-temporal resolution over China, as a means to arrive at a solar photovoltaic (PV) resource map. In terms of GHI estimates, the root mean square error and mean bias error between hourly measured and retrieved values are 147.02 (35.2%), –5.64 W/m 2 (–1.4%), respectively, whereas the values of daily estimates are 29.20 (18.0%), –2.97 W/m 2 (–1.3%). The retrieval accuracy is found much better for instances with solar zenith angles smaller than 60°. Relatively larger errors are found at locations in the Sichuan Basin and northeastern China, which can be attributed to bright surfaces and/or strong cloud transients. With the retrieved irradiance, PV resource is derived through a physical model chain. The annual mean PV resource map suggests that, over most of the west areas, the annual mean effective irradiance exceeds 1700 kWh/m 2 , with the highest value found in Tibet (around 2000 kWh/m 2 per annum). Eastern China has an annual effective irradiance of only 1300–1500 kWh/m 2 . In conclusion, the region with poorest solar resource is the Sichuan Basin (less than 1100 kWh/m 2 per annum).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling the Impacts of Microtopography and Shrub Distribution on Snow Depth in a Subarctic Watershed: Toward a Predictive Understanding of Snow Spatial Variability

Snow plays a critical role in carbon cycling, vegetation dynamics, and permafrost hydrology at high latitudes by influencing surface energy exchange. Predicting snow distribution patterns is essential for understanding the evolution of Arctic ecosystems, yet scaling process-level knowledge to landscape predictions remains challenging. Here, we analyze snow depth (2019 and 2022), terrain elevation, and vegetation height from a watershed on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, to examine how topography and shrubs shape snow redistribution across spatial scales. We find that snow depth is strongly coupled to terrain at scales below ∼60 m but becomes increasingly decoupled at larger scales. The topographic model of snow depth variation, which transforms terrain data to align with these scale-dependent snow patterns, is well correlated with local snow depth variations (linear fit R 2 > 0.5 for 85% of 100-m patches). A machine learning reconstruction of shrub canopy snow trapping reveals a simple exponential relationship between canopy structure and snow accumulation ( R 2 = 0.59), highlighting the combined influence of topography and vegetation on snow distribution. Together, these empirical relationships capture much of the observed snow variability in the watershed ( R 2 = 0.49, root mean square error (RMSE) = 30 cm), though systematic limitations persist in areas of strong scour and at coarser scales where wind-terrain interactions are more complex. These findings provide a framework for more efficient snow depth prediction and offer insights to improve snow-vegetation feedback representation in Earth System Models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials

Niobium's native surface oxide affects SRF cavity and superconducting qubit performance, motivating interest in controlling its crystalline structure. We combine a literature-derived machine-learning analysis with temperature-dependent XRD to study crystalline ordering in Nb2O5. Random Forest models, trained on 74 processing conditions from 17 papers and validated by leave-one-group-out cross-validation, predicted broad crystallinity outcomes well (balanced accuracy 0.809), but struggled with specific polymorph identity (0.577). Annealing temperature was the dominant predictor across all targets; oxygen partial pressure showed negligible importance, reflecting narrow literature coverage rather than physical irrelevance. Temperature-dependent XRD on anodized and H2O2-treated Niobium showed structural evolution consistent with the machine learning predictions. Our model and overall approach provide a data-driven framework for identifying and optimizing conditions that promote crystallization in initially amorphous oxides. This framework can guide the selection of growth and post-annealing conditions for Nb surfaces by narrowing the experimental parameter space, thereby reducing trial-and-error efforts in developing oxide structures relevant to SRF applications.

Tilkin, Anthony [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials: A Machine Learning Approach to Predict the Crystalline Structural Ordering in Nb Surface Oxides

Tilkin, Anthony [Unlisted, US, IL; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Physics-Guided Machine Learning for Prediction of Cloud Properties in Satellite-Derived Solar Data

With over 20 years of high-resolution surface irradiance data covering most of the western hemisphere, the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a vital public data asset. The NSRDB uses a two-step Physical Solar Model (PSM) that explicitly considers the effects of clouds and other atmospheric variables on radiative transfer. High-quality physical and optical cloud properties derived from satellite imagery are perhaps the most important data inputs to the PSM, representing the greatest source of radiation attenuation and scattering. However, traditional methods for cloud property retrieval have their own limitations and are unable to accurately predict cloud properties outside of nominal conditions. We introduce a physics-guided neural network that can accurately predict cloud properties when traditional methods fail or are inaccurate. Using this framework, we show reductions in relative Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) up to 13 percentage points for timesteps that previously had missing or low-quality cloud property data. We expect that this methodology will be effective in improving the quality of cloud property and solar irradiance data in the NSRDB.

cloud properties↗

DOE OSTI2025

Resolving the Coverage Dependence of Surface Reaction Kinetics with Machine Learning and Automated Quantum Chemistry Workflows

Microkinetic models for catalytic systems require estimation of many thermodynamic and kinetic parameters that can be calculated for isolated species and transition states using ab initio methods. However, the presence of nearby coadsorbates on the surface can dramatically alter these thermodynamic and kinetic parameters causing them to be dependent on species coverage fractions. As there are combinatorially many coadsorbed configurations on the surface, computing the coverage dependence of these parameters is far less straightforward. We present a framework for generating and applying machine learning models to predict coverage-dependent parameters for microkinetic models. Our toolkit enables automatic calculation and evaluation of coadsorbed configurations allowing us to sample 2,000 coadsorbed adsorbates and transition states (TSs) for a diverse set of 9 reactions on Cu(111), a challenging surface, with four possible coadsorbates. This dataset was then used to train subgraph isomorphic decision trees (SIDTs) to predict the stability and association energy of configurations. We were able to achieve mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 0.106 eV on adsorbates, 0.172 eV on TSs, and due to natural error cancellation in SIDTs for relative properties, 0.130 eV on reaction energies and 0.180 eV on activation barriers. In conclusion, we describe how to use these models to predict coverage-dependent corrections for adsorbates and TSs and demonstrate on H*, HO*, and O* comparing the generated SIDT model with an iteratively refined version.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗