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NASA NTRS2007

Diurnal Lightning Distributions as Observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)

Data obtained from the Optical Transient Detector (April 1995 to March 2000) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (December 1997 to December 2005) satellites (70 and 35 inclination low earth orbits, respectively) are used to statistically determine the number of flashes in the annual and seasonal diurnal cycle as a function of local and universal time. The data are further subdivided by season, land versus ocean, northern versus southern hemisphere, and other spatial (e.g., continents) and temporal (e.g., time of peak diurnal amplitude) categories. The data include corrections for detection efficiency and instrument view time. Continental results display strong diurnal variation, with a lightning peak in the late afternoon and a minimum in late morning. In regions of the world dominated by large mesoscale convective systems the peak in the diurnal curve shifts toward late evening or early morning hours. The maximum diurnal flash rate occurs in June-August, corresponding to the Northern Hemisphere summer, while the minimum occurs in December-February. Summer lightning dominates over winter activity and springtime lightning dominates over autumn activity at most continental locations. This latter behavior occurs especially strongly over the Amazon region in South America in September-November. Oceanic lightning activity in winter and autumn tends to exceed that in summer and spring. Global lightning is well correlated in phase but not in amplitude with the Carnegie curve. The diurnal flash rate varies about 4-35 percent about the mean, while the Carnegie curve varies around 4-15 percent.

Bailey, Jeff C.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Gravitational Radiation Characteristics of Nonspinning Black-Hole Binaries

"We present a detailed descriptive analysis of the gravitational radiation from binary mergers of non-spinning black holes, based on numerical relativity simulations of systems varying from equal-mass to a 6:1 mass ratio. Our analysis covers amplitude and phase characteristics of the radiation, suggesting a unified picture of the waveforms' dominant features in terms of an implicit rotating source. applying uniformly to the full wavetrain, from inspiral through ringdown. We construct a model of the late-stage frequency evolution that fits the $\ell = m$ modes, and identify late-time relationships between waveform frequency and amplitude. These relationships allow us to construct a predictive model for the late-time waveforms, an alternative to the common practice of modelling by a sum of quasinormal mode overtones. We demonstrate an application of this in a new effective-one-body-based analytic waveform model."

Kelly, Barnard↗

NASA NTRS2008

Assessment and Consequences of the Delayed Breakup of the Antarctic Polar Vortex in Two Versions of the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

In mid-winter, winds circle the globe at speeds greater than 200 km/hr (approximately 130mph) in the middle atmosphere. This strong jet bounds the region known as the polar vortex. The presence of the Antarctic polar vortex is a key ingredient in the formation of the 'ozone hole', because the air inside the vortex is cold and isolated from lower latitudes, creating ideal conditions for large-scale chemical ozone depletion. Many atmospheric models are not able to reproduce observed winds in the middle atmosphere. Specifically, the polar vortices tend to break down too late and peak wind speeds are higher than observed. Hurwitz et al. find that the delayed break-up of the Antarctic polar vortex is due to weaker-than-observed wave driving from the lower atmosphere during the October-November period. The delayed break-up of the Antarctic polar vortex changes the temperature structure of the middle atmosphere, which biases the amount of chemical ozone depletion that can occur in late winter and spring. Also, the extended lifetime of the polar vortex strengthens the 'overturning' circulation cell in the middle atmosphere, changing the amount of ozone, methane and other chemical species that is transported from low to high latitudes. As greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the atmospheric temperature structure and resulting wind structure are expected to change. Clearly, if models cannot duplicate the observed late 20th century high-latitude winds, their ability to simulate the polar vortices in future must be poor. Understanding model weaknesses and improving the modeled polar vortices will be necessary for accurate predictions of ozone recovery in the coming century.

Hurwitz, M.M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Gravitational Radiation Characteristics of Nonspinning Black-Hole Binaries

We present a detailed descriptive analysis of the gravitational radiation from binary mergers of non-spinning black holes, based on numerical relativity simulations of systems varying from equal-mass to a 6:1 mass ratio. Our analysis covers amplitude and phase characteristics of the radiation, suggesting a unified picture of the waveforms' dominant features in terms of an implicit rotating source, applying uniformly to the full wavetrain, from inspiral through ringdown. We construct a model of the late-stage frequency evolution that fits the l = m modes, and identify late-time relationships between waveform frequency and amplitude. These relationships allow us to construct a predictive model for the late-time waveforms, an alternative to the common practice of modelling by a sum of quasinormal mode overtones. We demonstrate an application of this in a new effective-one-body-based analytic waveform model.

Kelly, B. J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Hot Horizontal-Branch Stars in omega Centauri

Context. UV observations of some massive globular clusters have revealed a significant population of stars hotter and fainter than the hot end of the horizontal branch (HB), the so-called blue hook stars. This feature might be explained either by the late hot flasher scenario where stars experience the helium flash while on the white dwarf cooling curve or by the progeny of the helium-enriched sub-population recently postulated to exist in some clusters. Previous spectroscopic analyses of blue hook stars in co Cen and NGC 2808 support the late hot flasher scenario, but the stars contain much less helium than expected and the predicted C, N enrichment could not be verified. Aims. We compare observed effective temperatures, surface gravities, helium abundances, and carbon line strengths (where detectable) of our targets stars to the predictions of the two scenarios. Methods. Moderately high resolution spectra of hot HB stars in the globular cluster omega-Cen were analysed for radial velocity variations, atmospheric parameters and abundances using LTE and non-LTE model atmospheres. Results. We find no evidence for close binaries among our target stars. All stars below 30 000 K are helium-poor and very similar to HB stars observed in that temperature range in other globular clusters. In the temperature range 30000 K to 50000 K we find that 28% of our stars are helium-poor (log ((sup n)He/(sup n )H)< - 1.6), while 72% have roughly solar or super-solar helium abundance (log ((sup n)He/(sup n )H) >/= -1.5). We also find carbon enrichment strongly correlated with helium enrichment, with a maximum carbon enrichment of 3% by mass. Conclusions. The strong carbon enrichment in tandem with helium enrichment is predicted by the late hot flasher scenario, but not by the helium-enrichment scenario. We conclude that the helium-rich HB stars in omega-Cen cannot be explained solely by the helium-enrichment scenario invoked to explain the blue main sequence.

Moehler, S.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Modeling the Frozen-In Anticyclone in the 2005 Arctic Summer Stratosphere

Immediately following the breakup of the 2005 Arctic spring stratospheric vortex, a tropical air mass, characterized by low potential vorticity (PV) and high nitrous oxide (N2O), was advected poleward and became trapped in the easterly summer polar vortex. This feature, known as a "Frozen-In Anticyclone (FrIAC)", was observed in Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) data to span the potential temperature range from approximately 580 to 1100 K (approximately 25 to 40 km altitude) and to persist from late March to late August 2005. This study compares MLS N2O observations with simulations from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model, the GEOS-5/MERRA Replay model, and the VanLeer Icosahedral Triangular Advection isentropic transport model to elucidate the processes involved in the lifecycle of the FrIAC which is here divided into three distinct phases. During the "spin-up phase" (March to early April), strong poleward flow resulted in a tight isolated anticyclonic vortex at approximately 70-90 deg N, marked with elevated N2O. GMI, Replay, and VITA all reliably simulted the spin-up of the FrIAC, although the GMI and Replay peak N2O values were too low. The FrIAC became trapped in the developing summer easterly flow and circulated around the polar region during the "anticyclonic phase" (early April to the end of May). During this phase, the FrIAC crossed directly over the pole between the 7th and 14th of April. The VITA and Replay simulations transported the N2O anomaly intact during this crossing, in agreement with MLS, but unrealistic dispersion of the anomaly occurred in the GMI simulation due to excessive numerical mixing of the polar cap. The vortex associated with the FrIAC was apparently resistant to the weak vertical hear during the anticyclonic phase, and it thereby protected the embedded N20 anomaly from stretching. The vortex decayed in late May due to diabatic processes, leaving the N2O anomaly exposed to horizontal and vertical wind shears during the "shearing phase" (June to August). The observed lifetime of the FrIAC during this phase is consistent with time-scales calculated from the ambient horizontal and vertical wind shear. Replay maintained the horizontal structure of the N2O anomaly similar to NILS well into August. The VITA simulation also captured the horizontal structure of the FrIAC during this phase, but VITA eventually developed fine-scale N2O structure not observed in MLS data.

Allen, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Spitzer Survey for Dust in Type IIn Supernovae

Recent observations suggest that Type IIn supernovae (SNe IIn) may exhibit late-time (>100 days) infrared (IR) emission from warm dust more than other types of core-collapse SNe. Mid-IR observations, which span the peak of the thermal spectral energy distribution, provide useful constraints on the properties of the dust and, ultimately, the circumstellar environment, explosion mechanism, and progenitor system. Due to the low Type IIn rate (<10% of all core-collapse SNe), few IR observations exist for this subclass. The handful of isolated studies, however, show late-time IR emission from warm dust that, in some cases, extends for five or six years post-discovery. vVhile previous Spitzer/IRAC surveys have searched for dust in SNe, none have targeted the Type IIn subclass. This article presents results from a warm Spitzer/IRAC survey of the positions of all 68 known SNe IIn within a distance of 250 Mpc between 1999 and 2008 that have remained unobserved by Spitzer more than 100 days post-discovery. The detection of late-time emission from ten targets (approx. 15 %) nearly doubles the database of existing mid-IR observations of SNe IIn. Although optical spectra show evidence for new dust formation in some cases, the data show that in most cases the likely origin of the mid-IR emission is pre-existing dust, which is continuously heated by optical emission generated by ongoing circumstellar interaction between the forward shock and circumstellar medium. Furthermore, an emerging trend suggests these SNe "turn off" at " approx. 1000-2000 days post-discovery once the forward shock overruns the dust shell. The mass-loss rates associated with these dust shells are consistent with luminous blue variable (LBV) progenitors having similar mass-loss histories.

Fox, Ori D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Fungal Disease Emergence and Spread

Empirical evidence from multiple sources show the Earth has been warming since the late 19th century. More recently, evidence for this warming trend is strongly supported by satellite data since the late 1970s from the cryosphere, atmosphere, oceans, and land that confirms increasing temperature trends and their consequences (e.g., reduced Arctic sea ice, rising sea level, ice sheet mass loss, etc.). At the same time, satellite observations of the Sun show remarkably stable solar cycles since the late 1970s, when direct observations of the Sun's total solar irradiance began. Numerical simulation models, driven in part by assimilated satellite data, suggest that future-warming trends will lead to not only a warmer planet, but also a wetter and drier climate depending upon location in a fashion consistent with large-scale atmospheric processes. Continued global warming poses new opportunities for the emergence and spread of fungal disease, as climate systems change at regional and global scales, and as animal and plant species move into new niches. Our contribution to this proceedings is organized thus: First, we review empirical evidence for a warming Earth. Second, we show the Sun is not responsible for the observed warming. Third, we review numerical simulation modeling results that project these trends into the future, describing the projected abiotic environment of our planet in the next 40 to 50 years. Fourth, we illustrate how Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been linked to climate, enabling a better understanding of the dynamics of these diseases, and how this has led to the development of an operational predictive outbreak model for this disease in Africa. Fifth, We project how this experience may be applicable to predicting outbreaks of fungal pathogens in a warming world. Lastly, we describe an example of changing species ranges due to climate change, resulting from recent warming in the Andes and associated glacier melt that has enabled amphibians to colonize higher elevation lakes, only to be followed shortly by the emergence of fungal disease in the new habitats.

Tucker, Compton J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Fire Return Interval Within the Northern Boundary of the Larch Forest

Larch (Larix spp.) dominant forests compose a large proportion of the forests of Russia (i.e., about 40% of forested areas). These forests range from the Yenisei ridge on the west to the Pacific Ocean on the east, and from Lake Baikal on the south to the 73rd parallel in the north. Larch stands comprise the world s northern most forest at Ary-Mas (72 deg 28' N, 102 deg 15' E). Larch dominated forests occupy about 70% of the permafrost areas in Siberia. Larch forms high closure stands as well as open forests, and is found mainly over permafrost, where other tree species barely survive. Wildfires are typical for this territory with the majority occurring as ground fires due to low crown closure. Due to the thin active layer in permafrost soils and a dense lichen-moss cover, ground fires may cause stand mortality. The vast areas of larch-dominant forests is generally considered as a "carbon sink"; however, positive long-term temperature trends at higher latitudes are expected to result in an increase of fire frequency, and thus may convert this area to a source for greenhouse gases. There are recent observations regarding the increase of fire frequency within non-protected territories. Surprisingly, there are few publications on fire chronoseqences for the huge forested territory between the Ural Mountains and the Pacific Ocean. Also there is a general understanding that bimodal (late spring -- early summer and late summer-beginning of fall) fire seasonal distribution in the south becomes uni-modal (late spring -- early summer) in the north. The purpose of this study is to investigate the wildfire history at the northern edge of the zone of larch dominance.

Kharuk, V. I.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Spitzer Survey for Dust in Type IIn Supernovae

Recent observations suggest that Type IIn supernovae (SNe IIn) may exhibit late-time (greater than 100 days) infrared (IR) emission from warm dust more than other types of core-collapse SNe. Mid-IR observations, which span the peak of the thermal spectral energy distribution, provide useful constraints on the properties of the dust and, ultimately, the circumstellar environment, explosion mechanism, and progenitor system. Due to the low SN IIn rate (less than 10% of all core-collapse SNe), few IR observations exist for this subclass. The handful of isolated studies, however, show late-time IR emission from warm dust that, in some cases, extends for five or six years post-discovery. While previous Spitzer/IRAC surveys have searched for dust in SNe, none have targeted the Type IIn subclass. This article presents results from a warm Spitzer/IRAC survey of the positions of all 68 known SNe IIn within a distance of 250 Mpc between 1999 and 2008 that have remained unobserved by Spitzer more than 100 days postdiscovery. The detection of late-time emission from ten targets (approximately 15%) nearly doubles the database of existing mid-IR observations of SNe IIn. Although optical spectra show evidence for new dust formation in some cases, the data show that in most cases the likely origin of the mid-IR emission is pre-existing dust, which is continuously heated by optical emission generated by ongoing circumstellar interaction between the forward shock and circumstellar medium. Furthermore, an emerging trend suggests that these SNe decline at approximately 1000-2000 days post-discovery once the forward shock overruns the dust shell. The mass-loss rates associated with these dust shells are consistent with luminous blue variable (LBV) progenitors.

Fox, Ori D.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Extremes in rainfall (drought and flood) during the period 2004 - 2009 have privileged different disease vectors. Chikungunya outbreaks occurred during the severe drought from late 2004 to 2006 over coastal East Africa and the western Indian Ocean islands and in the later years India and Southeast Asia. The chikungunya pandemic was caused by a Central/East African genotype that appears to have been precipitated and then enhanced by global-scale and regional climate conditions in these regions. Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred following excessive rainfall period from late 2006 to late 2007 in East Africa and Sudan, and then in 2008 - 2009 in Southern Africa. The shift in the outbreak patterns of Rift Valley fever from East Africa to Southern Africa followed a transition of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena from the warm El Nino phase (2006-2007) to the cold La Nina phase (2007-2009) and associated patterns of variability in the greater Indian Ocean basin that result in the displacement of the centres of above normal rainfall from Eastern to Southern Africa. Understanding the background patterns of climate variability both at global and regional scale and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector borne-diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate response and mitigation measures.

Anyamba, Assaf↗

NASA NTRS2004

Improving Project Management with Simulation and Completion Distribution Functions

Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. A major culprit in late projects is uncertainty, which most, if not all, projects are inherently subject to. This uncertainty resides in the estimates for activity durations, the occurrence of unplanned and unforeseen events, and the availability of critical resources. In response to this problem, this research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion time risk analysis. It is called the Project Assessment by Simulation Technique (PAST). This new tool enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used within PAST to determine the completion distribution function for the project of interest. The simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. The deterministic inputs include planned project activities, precedence requirements, and resource requirements. The stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for events that can impact the project, and other dynamic constraints that may be placed upon project activities and milestones. These stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Repeating the simulation hundreds or thousands of times allows one to create the project completion distribution function. The Project Assessment by Simulation Technique was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going NASA project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. NASA project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions produced from PAST. The first result was that project stakeholders improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, using PAST, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.

Cates, Grant R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

X-Ray Emission from Supernovae in Dense Circumstellar Matter Environments: A Search for Collisionless Shock

The optical light curve of some supernovae (SNe) may be powered by the outward diffusion of the energy deposited by the explosion shock (so-called shock breakout) in optically thick (tau approx > 30) circumstellar matter (CSM). Recently, it was shown that the radiation-mediated and -dominated shock in an optically thick wind must transform into 8. collisionless shock and can produce hard X-rays. The X-rays are expected to peak at late times, relative to maximum visible light. Here we report on a search, using Swift-XRT and Chandra, for X-ray emission from 28 SNe that belong to classes whose progenitors are suspected to be embedded in dense CSM. Our sample includes 19 type-IIn SNe, one type-Ibn SN and ei~ht hydrogen-poor super-luminous SNe (SLSN-I; SN 2005ap like). Two SNe (SN 2006jc and SN 2010jl) have X-ray properties that are roughly consistent with the expectation for X-rays from a collisionless shock in optically thick CSl\l. Therefore, we suggest that their optical light curves are powered by shock breakout in CSM. We show that two other events (SN 2010al and SN 2011ht) were too X-ray bright during the SN maximum optical light to be explained by the shock breakout model. We conclude that the light curves of some, but not all, type-IIn/Ibn SNe are powered by shock breakout in CSM. For the rest of the SNe in our sample, including all the SLSN-I events, our X-ray limits are not deep enough and were typically obtained at too early times (i.e., near the SN maximum light) to conclude about their nature. Late time X-ray observations are required in order to further test if these SNe are indeed embedded in dense CSM. We review the conditions required for a shock breakOut in a wind profile. We argue that the time scale, relative to maximum light, for the SN to peak in X-rays is a probe of the column density and the density profile above the shock region. The optical light curves of SNe, for which the X-ray emission peaks at late times, are likely powered by the diffusion of shock energy from a dense CSM. We note that if the CSM density profile falls faster than a constant-rate wind density profile, then X-rays may escape at earlier times than estimated for the wind profile case. Furthermore, if the CSM have a region in which the density profile is very steep, relative to a steady wind density profile, or the CSM is neutral, then the radio free-free absorption may be low enough, and radio emission may be detected.

Ofek, E.O↗

NASA NTRS2012

Black Holes in Bulgeless Galaxies: An XMM-Newton Investigation of NGC 3367 AND NGC 4536

The vast majority of optically identified active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the local Universe reside in host galaxies with prominent bulges, supporting the hypothesis that black hole formation and growth is fundamentally connected to the build-up of galaxy bulges. However, recent mid-infrared spectroscopic studies with Spitzer of a sample of optically "normal" late-type galaxies reveal remarkably the presence of high-ionization [NeV] lines in several sources, providing strong evidence for AGNs in these galaxies. We present follow-up X-ray observations recently obtained with XMM-Newton of two such sources, the late-type optically normal galaxies NGC 3367 and NGC 4536. Both sources are detected in our observations. Detailed spectral analysis reveals that for both galaxies, the 2-10 keV emission is dominated by a power law with an X-ray luminosity in the L(sub 2- 10 keV) approximates 10(exp 39) - 10(exp 40) ergs/s range, consistent with low luminosity AGNs. While there is a possibility that X-ray binaries account for some fraction of the observed X-ray luminosity, we argue that this fraction is negligible. These observations therefore add to the growing evidence that the fraction of late-type galaxies hosting AGNs is significantly underestimated using optical observations alone. A comparison of the midinfrared [NeV] luminosity and the X-ray luminosities suggests the presence of an additional highly absorbed X-ray source in both galaxies, and that the black hole masses are in the range of 10(exp 5) - 10(exp 7) solar M for NGC 3367 and 10(exp 4) - (exp 10) solar M for NGC 4536

McAlpine, W.↗

NASA NTRS2013

NASA Models of Space Radiation Induced Cancer, Circulatory Disease, and Central Nervous System Effects

The risks of late effects from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are potentially a limitation to long-term space travel. The late effects of highest concern have significant lethality including cancer, effects to the central nervous system (CNS), and circulatory diseases (CD). For cancer and CD the use of age and gender specific models with uncertainty assessments based on human epidemiology data for low LET radiation combined with relative biological effectiveness factors (RBEs) and dose- and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors (DDREF) to extrapolate these results to space radiation exposures is considered the current "state-of-the-art". The revised NASA Space Risk Model (NSRM-2014) is based on recent radio-epidemiology data for cancer and CD, however a key feature of the NSRM-2014 is the formulation of particle fluence and track structure based radiation quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates, which are distinct from the ICRP quality factors, and shown to lead to smaller uncertainties in risk estimates. Many persons exposed to radiation on earth as well as astronauts are life-time never-smokers, which is estimated to significantly modify radiation cancer and CD risk estimates. A key feature of the NASA radiation protection model is the classification of radiation workers by smoking history in setting dose limits. Possible qualitative differences between GCR and low LET radiation increase uncertainties and are not included in previous risk estimates. Two important qualitative differences are emerging from research studies. The first is the increased lethality of tumors observed in animal models compared to low LET radiation or background tumors. The second are Non- Targeted Effects (NTE), which include bystander effects and genomic instability, which has been observed in cell and animal models of cancer risks. NTE's could lead to significant changes in RBE and DDREF estimates for GCR particles, and the potential effectiveness of radiation mitigator's. The NSRM- 2014 approaches to model radiation quality dependent lethality and NTE's will be described. CNS effects include both early changes that may occur during long space missions and late effects such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD effects 50% of the population above age 80-yr, is a degenerative disease that worsens with time after initial onset leading to death, and has no known cure. AD is difficult to detect at early stages and the small number of low LET epidemiology studies undertaken have not identified an association with low dose radiation. However experimental studies in mice suggest GCR may lead to early onset AD. We discuss modeling approaches to consider mechanisms whereby radiation would lead to earlier onset of occurrence of AD. Biomarkers of AD include amyloid beta (A(Beta)) plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) made up of aggregates of the hyperphosphorylated form of the micro-tubule associated, tau protein. Related markers include synaptic degeneration, dentritic spine loss, and neuronal cell loss through apoptosis. Radiation may affect these processes by causing oxidative stress, aberrant signaling following DNA damage, and chronic neuroinflammation. Cell types to be considered in multi-scale models are neurons, astrocytes, and microglia. We developed biochemical and cell kinetics models of DNA damage signaling related to glycogen synthase kinase-3(Beta) (GSK3(Beta)) and neuroinflammation, and considered multi-scale modeling approaches to develop computer simulations of cell interactions and their relationships to A(Beta) plaques and NFTs. Comparison of model results to experimental data for the age specific development of A(Beta) plaques in transgenic mice will be discussed.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Severe Weather Tool using 1500 UTC Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Soundings

People and property at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) are at risk when severe weather occurs. Strong winds, hail and tornadoes can injure individuals and cause costly damage to structures if not properly protected. NASA's Launch Services Program and Ground Systems Development and Operations Program and other KSC programs use the daily and weekly severe weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) to determine if they need to limit an activity such as working on gantries, or protect property such as a vehicle on a pad. The 45 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) develop a warm season (May-September) severe weather tool for use in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) based on the late morning, 1500 UTC (1100 local time), CCAFS (XMR) sounding. The 45 WS frequently makes decisions to issue a severe weather watch and other severe weather warning support products to NASA and the 45th Space Wing in the late morning, after the 1500 UTC sounding. The results of this work indicate that certain stability indices based on the late morning XMR soundings can depict differences between days with reported severe weather and days with no reported severe weather. The AMU determined a frequency of reported severe weather for the stability indices and implemented an operational tool in MIDDS.

Bauman, William H., III↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Sounding-based Severe Weather Tool to Support Daily Operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Hail↗

NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Ventilation of the Stratosphere: Robust Diagnostics from One-Way Flux Distributions

We present an analysis of the seasonally varying ventilation of the stratosphere using one-way flux distributions. Robust transport diagnostics are computed using GEOSCCM subject to fixed present-day climate forcings. From the one-way flux, we determine the mass of the stratosphere that is in transit since entry through the tropical tropopause to its exit back into the troposphere, partitioned according to stratospheric residence time and exit location. The seasonalities of all diagnostics are quantified with respect to the month of year (a) when air enters the stratosphere, (b) when the mass of the stratosphere is partitioned, and (c) when air exits back into the troposphere. We find that the return flux, within 3 months since entry, depends strongly on when entry occurred: (34 +/- 10)% more of the air entering the stratosphere in July leaves poleward of 45 deg N compared to air that enters in January. The month of year when the air mass is partitioned is also found to be important: The stratosphere contains about six times more air of tropical origin during late summer and early fall that will leave poleward of 45 deg within 6 months since entering the stratosphere compared to during late winter to late spring. When the entire mass of the air that entered the stratosphere at the tropics regardless of its residence time is considered, we find that (51 +/- 1)% and (39 +/- 2)% will leave poleward of 10 deg in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), respectively.

Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange↗