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CME Magnetic Structure and IMF Preconditioning Affecting SEP Transport
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are two manifestations of the various solar phenomena that are known to cause severe space weather effects throughout the heliosphere. The evolution of CMEs after eruption, especially in terms of their magnetic structure, and the configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) that influences the transport of SEPs are currently areas of active research. These two aspects are not necessarily independent of each other, especially during solar maximum when multiple eruptive events can occur close in time. Accordingly, we present in this work theanalysis of a CME that erupted from the Sun on 2012 May 11 (SOL2012-05-11) and an SEP event following an eruption that took place on 2012 May 17 (SOL2012-05-17),∼20◦in both latitude and longitude away from the May 11 CME source region. After observing in detailthe eruption and early evolution of the May 11 CME using remote-sensing data from three viewpoints, we evaluate its propagation through interplanetary space using several models.Then, we analyse in-situ measurements from five predicted impact locations (Venus, Earth, the Spitzer Space Telescope, the Mars Science Laboratory en route to Mars, and Mars) in the inner heliosphere in order to search for CME signatures. We find that all five in-situlocations detect signatures of an impulsive SEP event, which we trace back to the May 17 eruption. These findings suggest that the May 11 CME, which was crossing the various locations around the time of the May 17 eruption, provided a direct magnetic connectivityfor the efficient transport of SEPs with an impulsive profile. We discuss the space weather implications of CME evolution, regarding in particular its magnetic structure, and CME-driven IMF preconditioning that facilitates SEP transport from a later event. Finally, this work remarks the importance of the availability of data from multiple spacecraft, even those that do not include space weather research as their primary objective.
An overview of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) project: aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions in the southeast Atlantic basin
Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth’s biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) is a 5-year NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) investigation with three intensive observation periods designed to study key atmospheric processes that determine the climate impacts of these aerosols. During the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring (June–October), aerosol particles reaching 3–5 km in altitude are transported westward over the southeast Atlantic, where they interact with one of the largest subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The representation of these interactions in climate models remains highly uncertain in part due to a scarcity of observational constraints on aerosol and cloud properties, as well as due to the parameterized treatment of physical processes. Three ORACLES deployments by the NASA P-3 aircraft in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018 (totaling ~ 350 science flight hours), augmented by the deployment of the NASA ER-2 aircraft for remote sensing in September 2016 (totaling ~ 100 science flight hours), were intended to help fill this observational gap. ORACLES focuses on three fundamental science themes centered on the climate effects of African BB aerosols: (a) direct aerosol radiative effects, (b) effects of aerosol absorption on atmospheric circulation and clouds, and (c) aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions. This paper summarizes the ORACLES science objectives, describes the project implementation, provides an overview of the flights and measurements in each deployment, and highlights the integrative modeling efforts from cloud to global scales to address science objectives. Significant new findings on the vertical structure of BB aerosol physical and chemical properties, chemical aging, cloud condensation nuclei, rain and precipitation statistics, and aerosol indirect effects are emphasized, but their detailed descriptions are the subject of separate publications. The main purpose of this paper is to familiarize the broader scientific community with the ORACLES project and the dataset it produced.
Mapping Yearly Fine Resolution Global Surface Ozone through the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Data Fusion of Observations and Model Output for 1990–2017
Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations are necessary to determine the human health burden of ozone. To support the Global Burden of Disease Study, we produce yearly fine resolution global surface ozone estimates from 1990 to 2017 through a data fusion of observations and models. As ozone observations are sparse in many populated regions, we use a novel combination of the M3Fusion and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) methods. With M3Fusion, we create a multi-model composite by bias-correcting and weighting nine global atmospheric chemistry models based on their ability to predict observations (8,834 sites globally)in each region and year. BME is then used to integrate observations, such that estimates match observations at each monitoring site with the observational influence decreasing smoothly across space and time until the output matches the multi-model composite. After estimating at 0.5° resolution using BME, we add fine spatial detail from an additional model, yielding estimates at 0.1° resolution. Observed ozone is predicted more accurately (R2=0.81 at test point, 0.63 at 0.1°,0.62 at 0.5°) than the multi-model mean (R2=0.28 at 0.5°). Global ozone exposure is estimated to be increasing, driven by highly populated regions of Asia and Africa, despite decreases in the United States and Russia.
Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Tropospheric Ozone From 1877 to 2016, Observed Levels, Trends and Uncertainties
From the earliest observations of ozone in the lower atmosphere in the 19th century, both measurement methods and the portion of the globe observed have evolved and changed. These methods have different uncertainties and biases, and the data records differ with respect to coverage (space and time), information content, and representativeness. In this study, various ozone measurement methods and ozone datasets are reviewed and selected for inclusion in the historical record of background ozone levels, based on relationship of the measurement technique to the modern UV absorption standard, absence of interfering pollutants, representativeness of the well-mixed boundary layer and expert judgement of their credibility. There are significant uncertainties with the 19th and early 20th-century measurements related to interference of other gases. Spectroscopic methods applied before 1960 have likely underestimated ozone by as much as 11% at the surface and by about 24% in the free troposphere, due to the use of differing ozone absorption coefficients. There is no unambiguous evidence in the measurement record back to 1896 that typical mid-latitude background surface ozone values were below about 20 nmol mol–1, but there is robust evidence for increases in the temperate and polar regions of the northern hemisphere of 30–70%, with large uncertainty, between the period of historic observations, 1896–1975, and the modern period (1990–2014). Independent historical observations from balloons and aircraft indicate similar changes in the free troposphere. Changes in the southern hemisphere are much less. Regional representativeness of the available observations remains a potential source of large errors, which are difficult to quantify. The great majority of validation and intercomparison studies of free tropospheric ozone measurement methods use ECC ozonesondes as reference. Compared to UV-absorption measurements they show a modest (~1–5% ±5%) high bias in the troposphere, but no evidence of a change with time. Umkehr, lidar, and FTIR methods all show modest low biases relative to ECCs, and so, using ECC sondes as a transfer standard, all appear to agree to within one standard deviation with the modern UV-absorption standard. Other sonde types show an increase of 5–20% in sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from 1970–1995. Biases and standard deviations of satellite retrieval comparisons are often 2–3 times larger than those of other free tropospheric measurements. The lack of information on temporal changes of bias for satellite measurements of tropospheric ozone is an area of concern for long-term trend studies.
Improved Constraints on Global Methane Emissions and Sinks Using δ13C-CH4
We study the drivers behind the global atmospheric methane (CH4) increase observed after 2006. Candidate emission and sink scenarios are constructed based on proposed hypotheses in the literature. These scenarios are simulated in the TM5 tracer transport model for 1984–2016 to produce three-dimensional fields of CH4 and δ13C-CH4, which are compared with observations to test the competing hypotheses in the literature in one common model framework. We find that the fossil fuel (FF) CH4 emission trend from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.3.2 inventory does not agree with observed δ13C-CH4. Increased FF CH4 emissions are unlikely to be the dominant driver for the post-2006 global CH4 increase despite the possibility for a small FF emission increase. We also find that a significant decrease in the abundance of hydroxyl radicals (OH) cannot explain the post-2006 global CH4 increase since it does not track the observed decrease in global mean δ13C-CH4. Different CH4 sinks have different fractionation factors for δ13C-CH4, thus we can investigate the uncertainty introduced by the reaction of CH4 with tropospheric chlorine (Cl), a CH4 sink whose abundance, spatial distribution, and temporal changes remain uncertain. Our results show that including or excluding tropospheric Cl as a 13 Tg/year CH4 sink in our model changes the magnitude of estimated fossil emissions by ∼20%. We also found that by using different wetland emissions based on a static versus a dynamic wetland area map, the partitioning between FF and microbial sources differs by 20 Tg/year, ∼12% of estimated fossil emissions.
Magnetic Structure and Propagation of Two Interacting CMEs from the Sun to Saturn
One of the grand challenges in heliophysics is the characterization of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and evolution from eruption at the Sun through heliospheric propagation. At present, the main difficulties are related to the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fi elds and the lack of 3D in-situ measurements of the CME body in interplanetary space. Nevertheless, the evolution of a CME magnetic structure can be followed using a combination of multi-point remote-sensing observations and multi-spacecraft in-situ measurements as well as modelling. Accordingly, we present in this work the analysis of two CMEs that erupted from the Sun on 28 April 2012. We follow their eruption and early evolution using remote-sensing data, fi nding indications of CME{CME interaction, and then analyse their interplanetary counterpart(s) using in-situ measurements at Venus, Earth, and Saturn. We observe a seemingly single flux rope at all locations, but find possible signatures of interaction at Earth, where high-cadence plasma data are available. Reconstructions of the in-situ flux ropes provide almost identical results at Venus and Earth but show greater discrepancies at Saturn, suggesting that the CME was highly distorted and/or that further interaction with nearby solar wind structures took place before 10 AU. This work highlights the difficulties in connecting structures from the Sun to the outer heliosphere and demonstrates the importance of multi-spacecraft studies to achieve a deeper understanding of the magnetic confi guration of CMEs.
Progress of chemical characterization of asteroid Ryugu samples
It is believed that meteorites come from asteroids. Samples of asteroid (25143) Itokawa returned by the JAXA Hayabusa mission revealed that S-type asteroids are composed of materials consistent with the ordinary chondrite class[1,2]. The JAXA Hayabusa 2 [3]spacecraft launched on December 3rd, 2014 towards an asteroid (162173) Ryuguto clarify relationships between C-type asteroids and the carbonaceous chondrite class. Remote sensing observations from Hayabusa 2 show that (1) the albedo of Ryugu is darker than those of every known meteorite class[4, 5], (2) an absorption band at 2.72 μm indicates that phyllosilicates are ubiquitous on Ryugu [5],(3) the strength and shape of the absorption band feature suggests that Ryugu materials experienced heating above 300 °C[6], and (4) thermal inertia suggests that Ryugu materials are more porous than every known carbonaceous chondrite[7]. These results suggest that carbonaceous chondrite class materials are plausible for Ryugu materials, but no known carbonaceous chondrite completely matches the results obtained from Ryugu. *Complete abstract available in attached document
Mesosphere and Lower Thermospheric Temperature Responses to CIR- and CME- Induced Geomagnetic Activity
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Quantifying Earth System Interactions for Sustainable Food Production Via Expert Elicitation
Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green water and land system change affect other Earth system processes strongly, while land, freshwater and ocean components of biosphere integrity are the most impacted by other Earth system processes, most notably blue water and biogeochemical flows. We also mapped a complex network of mechanisms mediating these interactions and created a future research prioritization scheme based on interaction strengths and existing knowledge gaps. Our study improves the understanding of Earth system interactions, with sustainability implications including improved Earth system modelling and more explicit biophysical limits for future food production.
Interplanetary Mesoscale Observatory (InterMeso): A Mission to Untangle Dynamic Mesoscale Structures Throughout the Heliosphere
Mesoscale dynamics are a fundamental process in space physics, but fall within an observational gap of current and planned missions. Particularly in the solar wind, measurements at the mesoscales (100s RE to a few degrees heliographic longitude at 1 au) are crucial for understanding the connection between the corona and an observer anywhere within the heliosphere. Mesoscale dynamics may also be key to revealing the currently unresolved physics regulating particle acceleration and transport, magnetic field topology, and the causes of variability in the composition and acceleration of solar wind plasma. Studies using single-point observations do not allow for investigations into mesoscale solar wind dynamics and plasma variability, nor do they allow for the exploration of the sub-structuring of large-scale solar wind structures like coronal mass ejections (CMEs), co-rotating/stream interaction regions (CIR/SIRs), and the heliospheric plasma sheet. To address this fundamental gap in our knowledge of the heliosphere at these scales, the Interplanetary Mesoscale Observatory (InterMeso) concept employs a multi-point approach using four identical spacecraft in Earth-trailing orbits near 1 au. Varying drift speeds of the InterMeso spacecraft enable the mission to span a range of mesoscale separations in the solar wind, achieving significant and innovative science return. Simultaneous, longitudinally-separated measurements of structures co-rotating over the spacecraft also allow for disambiguation of spatiotemporal variability, tracking of the evolution of solar wind structures, and determination of how the transport of energetic particles is impacted by these variabilities.
Interplanetary Mesoscale Observatory (InterMeso): A mission to untangle dynamic mesoscale structures throughout the heliosphere
Mesoscale dynamics are a fundamental process in space physics, but fall within an observational gap of current and planned missions. Particularly in the solar wind, measurements at the mesoscales (100s RE to a few degrees heliographic longitude at 1 au) are crucial for understanding the connection between the corona and an observer anywhere within the heliosphere. Mesoscale dynamics may also be key to revealing the currently unresolved physics regulating particle acceleration and transport, magnetic field topology, and the causes of variability in the composition and acceleration of solar wind plasma. Studies using single-point observations do not allow for investigations into mesoscale solar wind dynamics and plasma variability, nor do they allow for the exploration of the sub-structuring of large-scale solar wind structures like coronal mass ejections (CMEs), co-rotating/stream interaction regions (CIR/SIRs), and the heliospheric plasma sheet. To address this fundamental gap in our knowledge of the heliosphere at these scales, the Interplanetary Mesoscale Observatory (InterMeso) concept employs a multi-point approach using four identical spacecraft in Earth-trailing orbits near 1 au. Varying drift speeds of the InterMeso spacecraft enable the mission to span a range of mesoscale separations in the solar wind, achieving significant and innovative science return. Simultaneous, longitudinally-separated measurements of structures co-rotating over the spacecraft also allow for disambiguation of spatiotemporal variability, tracking of the evolution of solar wind structures, and determination of how the transport of energetic particles is impacted by these variabilities.
ICME Structure and Evolution in the Inner Heliosphere
Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) have been studied for decades using various methods and observational tools; however, their internal structure, transport and evolution in the inner heliosphere remains poorly understood. Similarly, the transport and diffusion of solar energetic particles on their way to 1 AU is surrounded by controversy. This white paper outlines possible next research objectives and a possible multi-spacecraft mission concept (HELIIX) that would provide the measurements to achieve these objectives.
Unifying the Validation of Ambient Solar Wind Models
Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.
Wetland Emission and Atmospheric Sink Changes Explain Methane Growth in 2020
Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns(1). Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr−1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns(2). From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings(3,4,) our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge(5).