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Data Analysis, Machine Learning, & More

At LANL, I have had the privilege and pleasure of working with Dr. Tika Kafle, an optics and condensed matter physicist at the MagLab in TA-35. Dr. Kafle’s research primarily involves the Angle Resolved Photoemission Spectroscopy (ARPES) technique of characterizing materials. More specifically, Dr. Kafle works with Time Resolved ARPES (Tr-ARPES), which extends this technique into the time domain.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluation of Glovebox Fires Involving Flammable Liquids and Standard Glovebox Tools (Final Report)

This research effort was commissioned to examine factors related to loss of containment due to fire within a glovebox (GB). Tests consisted of multiple trials with varying initial conditions. Com bustible levels and types were chosen to reflect realistic operation conditions (including worst-case scenarios), involving flammable liquids, GB tools, and other combustible items commonly found in GBs at Los Alamos National Labs (LANL).

42 ENGINEERING↗

WRS Capabilities Booklet [Slides]

WRS is the digital backbone of the Weapons Program—delivering trusted data assets, cyber-assured software and systems, and AI-enabling software—that transform insights into decisive action. We empower physicists, engineers, researchers, and scientists to think faster, act strategically, and stay ahead in an ever-evolving threat landscape. Our efforts ensure critical nuclear weapons data remains secure, accessible, and usable—supporting mission-critical work, informed decision making, and scientific advancement at LANL and across the Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE).

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Finite Element Analysis of the TRUST Nonlinear Dynamics Testbed

This paper builds on prior work conducted within the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainty in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) program. Specifically, it builds on finite element (FE) modeling efforts for the TRUST program’s Nonlinear Dynamics (ND) testbed. Historically, the FE model for the ND testbed has exclusively utilized a Lanczos eigensolver that linearly extracts the system’s natural frequencies. This paper investigates the Abaqus 2024’s explicit dynamic solver, which implements a central difference explicit solver. The central difference method used in Abaqus can capture nonlinear material responses in structural dynamic simulations making it suitable for the ND FE model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

M3SF-25LL010302052 - Radionuclide Interaction with Hydrothermally Altered Repository Materials

This progress report (Level 3 Milestone Number M3SF-25LL010302052) summarizes research conducted at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) within the Crystalline Host Rock Properties & Processes - LLNL Number SF-25LL01030205. Observed changes in radionuclide sorption after bentonite/clay heating have implications for radionuclide diffusive transport through engineered barriers and must be considered when designing waste disposal repositories. Recent research performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has provided key insights regarding the hydrothermal alteration behavior of bentonite backfill in the presence of repository materials (steel, concrete, etc.). We are examining how this mineral alteration affects retardation behavior of a suite of radionuclides of interest to repository performance assessment. Sorption experiments and data analysis for 233 U were initiated in FY24 following earlier experiments performed on 243 Am, 90 Sr, 137 Cs. In FY25, we completed the 233 U study and initiated and completed a study of 237 Np sorption. Below, we summarize the results and potential impacts of hydrothermal alteration on radionuclide retardation and assess the importance of this process to radionuclide migration from a GHRDC. We also use statistical tools (i.e. PCA) to help us determine the major drivers in affecting changes in measured Kd values induced by hydrothermal alteration. These experiments also allow us to test the predictive ability of our component additivity approach to surface complexation and ion exchange. Our guiding hypothesis is that a robust surface complexation/ion exchange model and associated database can effectively predict changes in radionuclide sorption behavior resulting from the hydrothermal alteration of mineralogy in a repository near field. In November 2024 the paper “Selenium interaction with iron minerals: Quantitative comparison of sorption and coprecipitation impacts on mobility” was published in Applied Geochemistry. A short update of results to date is presented below. In FY25, we also actively supported the DITUSC project, which is part of the EURADII initiative, as associate partners. We are executing the Migration2025 conference and support associated the NEA-TDB and Thermochimie workshops that will provide critical international engagements and develop consensus and synergy in thermodynamics as it relates to supporting the US nuclear waste repository program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Public Release of the MENDF80 and MT80 Nuclear Data Libraries for NDI

This document describes the MENDF80 and MT80 data libraries, which are multi-group neutron cross section libraries based on ENDF/B-VIII.0 for LANL’s Nuclear Data Interface (NDI). MENDF80 is a downscatter-only library, while MT80 is multi-temperature. Both libraries also have 30-group pre-collapsed versions, MENDF80 30 and MT80 30.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

FY26 MID-YEAR REPORT 238 Pu Measurement in Bulk Environmental Samples by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry (TIMS)

Funding was received in December 2026 to optimize a nascent measurement capability for mass spectrometry of 238 Pu, as it would apply to relevant environmental collections in safeguards applications, i.e. NWAL swipes or other bulk collections such as soil, sediment, waters, or air filters. The measurement relies on differing ionization temperatures for U and Pu during thermal ionization and therefore leverages TIMS to partially separate and measure these elements. Collected counts of 238 Pu can be mathematically corrected for interfering counts of background 238 U, by addition of a U tracer (e.g. 235 U) to account for the 238 U present. The method has undergone initial characterization at LANL regarding detection limit, precision, and accuracy but requires further applicability-testing for possible use in safeguards.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

FY26 Mid-Year Report Self-Diagnostic Capabilities for Neutron Instruments

This year we will transfer the latest version of INCC6 with last year’s self-diagnostic features to the IAEA. In FY25 we completed the development of three automated self diagnostic features into INNC6. The completion of these features marked the final stable version of INCC 6.0 ready for release to the IAEA and other users. In the first half of the Fiscal Year 2026 we have worked with LANL’s Feynman Center and Export Control office to attain a license for exporting INCC6 to the IAEA. We have successfully attained the export license for INCC6, and contacts at the IAEA have been granted permission to receive INCC6. We are in the final stage of writing the version 6 user manual. Once this is complete, we will deliver INCC6 to the IAEA for testing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Catalytic Membrane Reactors Based on Carbon Molecular Sieve Hollow Fiber Membranes for Sustainable and Modular H 2 Production

We aimed to develop a catalytic membrane reactor (CMR) that couples water–gas shift (WGS) reaction with in-situ H 2 separation to produce blue H 2 and a CO 2 -rich stream from coal- and biomass-derived syngas. Our core approach employs high-permeance carbon molecular sieve (CMS) hollow-fiber membranes (HFMs) with strong gas separation ability, which we further integrate into catalytic membrane reactors to intensify H 2 production and CO 2 capture in a single unit. Three organizations with complementary skills collaborated to achieve the goal, including the University at Buffalo (UB), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and Trimeric Corporation (Trimeric).

08 HYDROGEN↗

Los Alamos Innovation Enables Carbon-Negative Infrastructure Through an AI Infrastructure Partnership

A material innovation first developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is now enabling a major step forward in carbon management. Licensed by Spiritus, the technology is being deployed in a $500 million partnership with Prometheus Hyperscale and Casper Carbon Capture to build one of the largest carbon-negative digital infrastructure projects in the world. Located in Casper, Wyoming, the initiative directly integrates permanent carbon removal with advanced computing systems, illustrating how Los Alamos research continues to advance national goals in energy, security, and innovation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Setting Priorities: A Process Improvement Study to Achieve Greater Team Efficiency.

This report details a comprehensive process improvement study designed to optimize team efficiency and strategic focus within an Identity and Access Management (IAM) technical unit at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Faced with a high volume of operational support and a fragmented project landscape, the team experienced "capacity fatigue" and delivery times extending into years.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Configuration Management Plan

The Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) is located at Technical Area 53 (TA-53) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in Los Alamos, New Mexico. LANSCE is driven by an 800 megaelectronvolt (MeV) proton accelerator that delivered its first beam in 1972. The LANSCE accelerator is unique in that it accelerates both H– (to full energy of 800 MeV) and H+ ions (up to 100 MeV currently but has accelerated high-power H+ beam to 800 MeV in the past) and supports five separate experimental areas that operate simultaneously, with each having different timing and beam current requirements. Many of the LANSCE accelerator front-end components date back to original commissioning in 1972, including the ion sources, Cockcroft-Walton (CW) generators, and the Drift Tube LINAC (DTL), which accelerates the beam up to 100 MeV.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DICOMs, Missiles, and Metadata: The U.S. Nuclear Weapons Program Leverages a Medical Standard

Digital Imagine and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) images, although most commonly used in medical settings, have been widely adopted by the United States Department of Energy (DOE) for capturing images of the internal components in a nuclear weapon. DICOMs, a lesser-known file format that combine nested metadata structures with complex image data-including multiple planes, frames, and high resolution-require the creation of access copies to support usability within the DOE. Used primarily for ensuring the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile, the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)’s DICOM images and corresponding image metadata must be accessible to scientists and researchers via our institutional centralized databases. This paper describes the author's creation of a Python script that converts DICOM images into accessible, archive-friendly TIFF files while preserving key image data and metadata.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Mapping the scattered family tree of fission neutrons

A statistically predicted tendency for neutrons produced inside fission reactors to form in clusters can cause asymmetrical energy production that is counterbalanced, at least in part, by the spontaneous fission of radioactive material in the reactor. This neutron-clustering effect theory has been demonstrated in a nuclear reactor for the first time and was described in an article published by Los Alamos National Laboratory. The findings of a study supported by the Department of Energy’s Nuclear Criticality Safety Program, funded through the National Nuclear Security Administration, and carried out in collaboration with two French nuclear agencies—the Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) and the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)—could improve reactor safety and lead to more accurate simulations, according to LANL. The team found that a complete die-off was avoided in the small reactor because spontaneous fission—nuclear splitting of radioactive material inside reactors that is not caused by direct impact from a fission neutron—creates more neutrons. The balance of fission chain reactions and spontaneous fission lessens the impact of energy bursts created by clustering neutrons.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparison of Measured and Simulated Neutron Counting with 3He Detectors and the Subcritical Water-Moderated UO2 7uPCX Assembly

An experiment designed to compare neutron noise analysis techniques on subcritical assemblies using differing neutron detector designs was developed as a collaborative effort between the Institut de radioprotection et de surete nucleaire (IRSN), Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), and Sandia National Laboratories. This experiment has the final goal of characterizing neutron noise analysis accuracy in determining multiplication in light water systems for various neutron detection systems. This experiment utilized the Seven Percent Critical Experiment (7uPCX) facility at Sandia National Laboratories. The 7uPCX is an assembly designed to investigate light water systems with fuel enrichment above 5% and is able to use square or hex grid plates with varying pitches.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Distribution Development for the RDX Regional Model at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20385

Representing uncertainty in model inputs often means finding a balance between uncertainty and physical reality. Developing wide distributions may seem conservative in principle, but this approach may lead to unrealistic model results. Characterizing the current state of knowledge of stochastic inputs presents many challenges, especially if the data available are limited or have limited relevance to the site. Relationships among these inputs may also be important to represent but are typically complex or difficult to define. Often special adjustments must be made to account for reduced credibility in particular data. If parameters are strongly related to one another, a correlation structure may be developed for input to the model. Other techniques such as regression models may be used to incorporate relationships between the information available and the desired parameters. The process of developing distributions must consider details of the model in terms of what the distribution is meant to represent. This paper uses the example of a probabilistic fate and transport model for hexahydro-1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazine (RDX) in the regional aquifer at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). For many parameters, a single draw is applied to all space and time over which the model is run, for a single iteration. This simplification is often made for many reasons, and can often be beneficial, but also adds additional complexity in the distribution development process. Defining the distributional goals as they relate to the modeling process is an important step, which should take place prior to evaluation of the data. Usually, the distributions developed are meant to characterize the average value of the parameter over the spatial and temporal domain of the model. Distribution development requires consideration of many sources of information on the parameter where available, ideally from multiple references. Examples of different sources include data from different references but also from different conditions, measurement methods, or experimental types. Depending on these conditions and the reliability or relevance of particular references, different sources of data may each contribute valuable information but have varying relevance to the site. In these cases, weighting data unequally is a useful way to incorporate this information. As an example, aqueous dispersivity data are available for a variety of rock types. Only a few values are available for the desired rock type, and this is not enough to develop a distribution. Therefore, dispersivity values from other rock types are included in distribution development but are down-weighted such that the best data have the most influence on the distribution developed. In another case, K{sub d} distributions in the model are meant to represent a known composition of multiple soil types. Data from these materials are weighted accordingly to develop a distribution for the weighted average K{sub d} across soil types. Other cases include varying reliability of different sources, and weighting data according to the confidence in these sources. In some cases, input parameters are correlated with one another. An example is advective porosity, which is positively correlated with total porosity and must be less than total porosity. Paired data with both parameters must exist to discern the relationship between the two parameters and if it is necessary to build a correlation structure into the model. In general, correlated parameters may be represented in the model by a multivariate distribution, or perhaps more desirably, capturing the correlation within the developed distributions which may be treated as independent from one another. In the example of porosity, this can be done by transforming advective porosity into a proportion of total porosity which may be drawn independently from the distribution of total porosity. This paper explores how complex data and correlations can be incorporated to meet the distributional goals of the model, using the RDX regional model as a detailed example. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Bayesian Approach to Estimation of Water Table Elevations Using Historical Rasters as Prior Information 2019 - 20430

In cases of complex but only partially known geology and a lack of spatial control in observation well locations, water table elevation estimation is very challenging. In some cases, auxiliary information, such as observations of the movement of tracers, operation of injection and extraction wells, and calibration of groundwater models against the historical elevation data, can be combined with expert judgement to estimate flow directions in areas of sparse data and to aid in the production of more reliable contour maps (and associated rasters) than could be produced by relying on sparse well elevation data alone. Given a historical sequence of these raster maps, the question arises how to automate, to the extent possible, the process of producing new raster maps to reflect data from previous times, the current data and the operation of expert judgement. One solution is to adopt a Bayesian point of view and to regard the historical well elevation data, auxiliary information and historical raster maps as prior information. The well elevations for water table wells, as well as those for injection/extraction wells and the data associated with other relevant variables, can be viewed as predictors for the raster surface. From this prior information, we can, conditional on the values of these predictors for a new time period, compute an expected value map and a standard deviation map for the new raster. These then can be taken to specify a prior predictive distribution for the pixels in the new raster map. Then we condition the pixels, corresponding to water level observation wells within the raster, on the observed values in those wells (which in general will differ from the regression estimate) for the new time period. Given the smoothness of the water table surface, we then smooth the surface of deviations from the mean surface, based on the variograms of the historical rasters, and add this smoothed surface to the regression mean surface. The error structure of the produced raster map is defined by the regression error structure and the error due to smoothing based on the estimated variograms. This methodology has been developed and is being further refined for groundwater monitoring and remediation at LANL. It is a very flexible method that can also be applied with a variety of other predictors applied to model the water level wells in the area of interest over the historical record. The smoothness of the spatial process and its possible evolution over time can then be estimated from the residuals from this regression. This can be augmented by expert hydrogeological opinion based on site topography and hydrogeology. (authors)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Verification of Special Nuclear Material (SNM) using Active Well Coincidence Counter (AWCC) and a High Purity Germanium (HPGe) Detector

SNM verification can be accomplished via two methods i.e. destructive analysis (DA) or nondestructive analysis (NDA). The DA modes are much more accurate compared to NDA modes; nevertheless, the sample's physical integrity is destroyed in the process. Techniques such as ICP-MS, ID-ICP-MS, TI-MS are few examples of DA, where a bulk material is ground and mixed with a solution (some form of acid) to acquire a homogenous sample. In contrast, NDA modes utilize signals emitted by the sample such as gamma, neutrons, light, or heat to analyze samples under investigation. HPGe detectors are some of the most frequently used gamma detectors to assay SNM. However, in a high activity scenario it provides a large uncertainty and sometimes becomes unfeasible to measure low energy gamma rays. Meanwhile, neutron detectors are not affected by the gamma background, therefore they can be used in addition to the gamma detectors to verify total fissile mass ({sup 235}U + {sup 239}Pu) of SNM. The AWCC is one of the thermal neutron NDA systems developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). It consists of 42 {sup 3}He detectors to measure gross neutrons (singles), coincidence neutrons (doubles), higher order multiplicity counting (triples, quadruples, etc.). It can effectively operate in both active and passive neutron interrogation modes. It can utilize AmLi, AmBe, or {sup 252}Cf active interrogation neutron sources. It is used to verify declared fissile mass ({sup 235}U or {sup 239}Pu) present in SNM. Objectives: Calibrate HPGe and AWCC for lightly irradiated (with enough {sup 137}Cs gamma background) ∼93% enriched HEU fuels; Verify fissile mass ({sup 235}U +{sup 239}Pu) content using AWCC and HPGe; Model and benchmark AWCC in MCNP6. Neutron coincidence and multiplicity counting: Two or more neutrons are coincident if they are detected by the system within the specified gate window; In AWCC: Gate window is 128 μsec; Induced fission in fissile material such as {sup 235}U and {sup 239}Pu - emission of time correlated neutrons - Singles, Doubles, Triples, or Quadruples; No induced fission in non-fissile materials- no correlated neutrons - only singles. SNM can be verified with high accuracy and precision using gamma and neutron NDA instruments such as HPGe and AWCC. Interaction with thermal neutrons. Non-fissile atoms - do not emit correlated neutrons. Fissile atoms - emit correlated neutrons during induced fission events. The time correlated neutrons can be detected by using coincidence or multiplicity counters such as AWCC. Likewise, {sup 235}U produces 186 keV gamma peak that can be measured by a HPGe gamma detector. Counts under 186 keV gamma peak provide information about {sup 235}U content. Combining AWCC and HPGe results can provide better understanding of special nuclear material under investigation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗