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DOE OSTI2022

Case Study: Hybridizing Nuclear Energy Systems in the U.S.

This case study was presented at the ICTP-IAEA VIRTUAL Course on Nuclear-Renewable Integrated Energy Systems: Phenomenology, Research and Development. It provides preliminary results on an analysis of hybridizing the two nuclear power plants owned by Xcel Energy and located in Minnesota. The analysis extends previous analyses that provided only price-taker results. Those assume adjusting the generation sold to the grid does not impact locational marginal electricity prices nor do they estimate impacts on the total net cost to serve the load. This presentation summarizes the new technique that was developed to both optimize the size and operations of the hybridized system and the resulting impacts on the grid when it is operated optimally.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Myriad World Baseline: Global Geodemographic Estimates

The LandScan Myriad World Baseline (MWB) method produces global, residential (nighttime/home-location) gridded geodemographic estimates based on 5-year age/gender cohorts—at 30-arcsecond (≈1 km) resolution. MWB is designed to fill gaps where detailed, georeferenced survey data (e.g., Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)) are missing or outdated, and to provide a baseline that can support human security analysis, including consequence assessment, “patterns of life” modeling, and scenario-based population futures. MWB’s workflow spatializes household-level age/gender characteristics from the GLOPOP-S dataset by conflating household and gridded expected relative wealth adapted from Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI), then adjusts them to a target year of interest. Age/gender estimates are then applied to harmonize lowest-administrative-level statistics with LandScan residential counts, yielding final geodemographic estimates. Two validation case studies are presented: Ghana (2021) and Tokyo/Kanagawa, Japan (2020), illustrating spatial variability in demographic cohorts and comparing MWB outputs to official gridded statistics. Results show close overall alignment relative to validation criteria including population pyramids and age-dependency ratios.

Tuccillo, Joe [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000259300943)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searches for New Physics With Muon Conversion at Fermilab and Triboson Production at the LHC

We report on several efforts to search for physics beyond the standard model of particle physics at broad energy scales. The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for charged lepton flavor violation via the muon to electron conversion process, which is suppressed in the Standard Model. Mu2e will be operated at a low energy, yet can probe New Physics at very high mass scales (O(1e3 - 1e4 ) TeV). At high energies, the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC continues to deliver an impressive suite of Standard Model measurements and limits on a variety of New Physics signatures. Mu2e is under construction and slated to collect its first physics data in the coming years. This thesis describes work done during the construction phase of Mu2e and focuses on two critical areas: magnetic field modeling and statistical analysis. We describe a novel method for field modeling which we validate using a simulated dataset representing the expected magnetic field in the Detector Solenoid. This method blends a standard least-squares fitting technique that utilizes physically motivated analytical model functions with a novel physics informed network that is constructed to obey Maxwell’s equations. We show the technique can model the field with an accuracy of 10−7 despite the presence of injected noise in the pseudo-measurements at the 10−5 level. We then present preliminary results of the calibration of 3D Hall probes at the sub-10−4 level. These probes will be used to directly measure the Mu2e Detector Solenoid magnetic field on a sparse grid; these measurements serve as the input to the field model fitting. Finally, we describe the first implementation of both an unbinned shape analysis and a Bayesian interpretation applied to Mu2e pseudo-data. Up to 20% tighter limits can be set by the shape analysis compared to a standard cut & count analysis. The AlCap experiment collected data at PSI in 2015 to measure several important quantities related to nuclear muon capture on an aluminum target, which is a significant background process for Mu2e. The neutron emission from muon capture can introduce background hits in the Mu2e detectors and can increase radiation damage in various elements of the apparatus. We present measurements of the neutron group fluence and mean neutron multiplicity for muon capture on aluminum nuclei. Finally, we discuss an analysis of triboson production at CMS using an Effective Field Theory framework. Standard Model triboson production, which was first observed at CMS in 2020, has a relatively small cross section and provides direct access to both anomalous triple gauge couplings and quartic gauge couplings. These couplings, interpreted in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, are studied in the present work. We target the boosted regime where the background rate is low and yields are enhanced when dimension-6 and dimension-8 Wilson coefficients are non-zero. We do not observe an excess in the data and therefore set bounds on the Wilson coefficients. For dimension-6 coefficients the tightest observed (expected) bounds are set on cW /Λ2 where Λ is the mass scale of new physics; the bounds are [−0.13, 0.12] TeV−2 ([−0.12, 0.12] TeV−2 ) at 95% CL. The tightest bounds in dimension-8 are set on fT,0 / Λ4 ; the observed (expected) bounds at 95% CL are [−0.63, 0.69] TeV−4 ([−0.54, 0.62] TeV−4 ). Additional results are presented which include scenarios where multiple Wilson coefficients are non-zero, the application of signal model clipping to address unitarity violation in Effective Field Theories, and a novel template fit developed for easier reinterpretation of our results.

Kampa, Cole Erik [Northwestern U. (main)] (ORCID:0↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation on Tuning Power–Frequency Droop for Improved Grid–Forming Inverter and Synchronous Generator Transient Load Sharing

Poor transient load sharing has been observed during the parallel operation of synchronous generators (SGs) and droop-controlled grid-forming (GFM) inverter-based resources (IBRs) in islanded microgrids. This can result in overcurrent protections, causing the inverters to trip, which leads to the collapse of voltage and frequency. In this article, small-signal analysis supported by electromagnetic transients (EMTs) simulation is performed on a detailed model of a microgrid containing IBRs and an SG to identify underdamped modes and their sensitivities to the power–frequency (P-F) droop parameter. Further EMT simulation of a more complex microgrid model with multiple GFM IBRs and SGs is performed to determine whether trends identified from the modal analysis extend to cases where the number of SGs in operation may vary. The objective is to investigate the effectiveness of tuning this parameter to reduce the likelihood of overcurrents in response to load and generation disturbances. The work uncovers both fast and slow modes of concern. Primarily, the findings show that increasing the P-F droop value improves the damping of the slower mode while degrading the damping of the faster mode, leading to an upper limit on the damping improvement of the GFM IBR output current. In EMT simulations of the more complex microgrid, the greatest damping improvement still exhibits significant maximum overshoot. Furthermore, the optimal value of the P-F droop parameter is sensitive to the number of SGs in operation. The conclusion is that tuning the P-F droop parameter is not an effective means to avoid the overcurrent tripping of GFM IBRs during response to large load or generation disturbances when operating in parallel to SGs in islanded microgrids.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing Seasonal Variation of the Atmospheric Mixing Layer Height Using Machine Learning Approaches

As machine learning becomes more integrated into atmospheric science, XGBoost has gained popularity for its ability to assess the relative contributions of influencing factors in the atmospheric boundary layer height. To examine how these factors vary across seasons, a seasonal analysis is necessary. However, dividing data by season reduces the sample size, which can affect result reliability and complicate factor comparisons. To address these challenges, this study replaces default parameters with grid search optimization and incorporates cross-validation to mitigate dataset limitations. Using XGBoost with four years of data from the atmospheric radiation measurement (ARM) (Southern Great Plains (SGP) C1 site, cross-validation stabilizes correlation coefficient fluctuations from 0.3 to within 0.1. With optimized parameters, the R value can reach 0.81. Analysis of the C1 site reveals that the relative importance of different factors changes across seasons. Lower tropospheric stability (LTS, ~0.53) is the dominant factor at C1 throughout the year. However, during DJF, latent heat flux (LHF, 0.44) surpasses LTS (0.22). In SON, LTS (0.58) becomes more influential than LHF (0.18). Further comparisons among the four long-term SGP sites (C1, E32, E37, and E39) show seasonal variations in relative importance. Notably, during JJA, the differences in the relative importance of the three factors across all sites are lower than in other seasons. This suggests that boundary layer development in the summer is not dominated by a single factor, reflecting a more intricate process likely influenced by seasonal conditions such as enhanced convective activity, higher temperatures, and humidity, which collectively contribute to a balanced distribution of parameter impacts. Furthermore, the relative importance of LTS gradually increases from morning to noon, indicating that LTS becomes more significant as the boundary layer approaches its maximum height. Consequently, the LTS in the early morning in autumn exhibits greater relative importance compared to other seasons. This reflects a faster development of the mixing layer height (MLH) in autumn, suggesting that it is easier to retrieve the MLH from the previous day during this period. The findings enhance understanding of boundary layer evolution and contribute to improved boundary layer parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Small-Signal Stability Constrained Optimal Power Flow of Inverter-Dominated Power Systems with Flexible Operation Mode Selection

Given the intermittence and low inertia nature of inverter-based resources (IBRs), modern power systems with high penetration of IBRs challenge the conventional optimal power flow (OPF) analysis and the system may experience unexpected failures if stability constraints are not incorporated. This study proposes a small-signal stability-constrained OPF (SSSC-OPF) with flexible operation mode selection between grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) modes for IBRs to address these challenges. The approach aims to maintain system stability with a sufficient stability margin while minimizing operation costs. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through extensive case studies on the IEEE 14-bus system. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is able to support system-level power flow analysis, reduce generation costs, and ensure stability under various disturbances.

grid-following↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multilevel Convergence Analysis of Multigrid-Reduction-in-Time

This study presents a multilevel convergence framework for multigrid-reduction-in-time (MGRIT) as a generalization of previous two-grid estimates. The framework provides a priori upper bounds on the convergence of MGRIT V- and F-cycles, with different relaxation schemes, by deriving the respective residual and error propagation operators. The residual and error operators are functions of the time-stepping operator, analyzed directly and bounded in the norm, both numerically and analytically. We present various upper bounds of different computational cost and varying sharpness. These upper bounds are complemented by proposing analytic formulae for the approximate convergence factor of V-cycle algorithms that take the number of fine grid time points, the temporal coarsening factors, and the eigenvalues of the time-stepping operator as parameters. The paper concludes with supporting numerical investigations of parabolic (anisotropic diffusion) and hyperbolic (wave equation) model problems. We assess the sharpness of the bounds and the quality of the approximate convergence factors. Observations from these numerical investigations demonstrate the value of the proposed multilevel convergence framework for estimating MGRIT convergence a priori and for the design of a convergent algorithm. We further highlight that observations in the literature are captured by the theory, including that two-level Parareal and multilevel MGRIT with F-relaxation do not yield scalable algorithms and the benefit of a stronger relaxation scheme. An important observation is that with increasing numbers of levels MGRIT convergence deteriorates for the hyperbolic model problem, while constant convergence factors can be achieved for the diffusion equation. The theory also indicates that L-stable Runge--Kutta schemes are more amendable to multilevel parallel-in-time integration with MGRIT than A-stable Runge--Kutta schemes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Climatology and Extreme Value Analysis of Large Hail in China

In this paper, hail size records are analyzed at 2254 stations in China and a hail size climatology is developed based on gridded hail observations for the period 1960–2015. It is found that the annual percentiles of hail size records changed sharply and national-wide after 1980, therefore two periods, 1960–79 and 1980–2015, are studied. There are some similarities between the two periods in terms of the characteristics of hail size such as the spatial distribution patterns of mean annual maximum hail size and occurrence week of annual maximum hail size. The 1980–2015 period had higher observation density than the 1960–79 period, but showed smaller mean annual maximum hail size, especially in northern China. In the majority of grid boxes, the annual maximum hail size experienced a decreasing trend during the 1980–2015 period. A Gumbel extreme value model is fitted to each grid box to estimate the return periods of maximum hail size. The scale and location parameter of the fitted Gumbel distributions are higher in eastern China than in western China, thereby reflecting a greater likelihood of large hail in eastern China. In southern China, the maximum hail size exceeds 127 mm for a 10-yr return period, whereas in northern China maximum hail size exceeds this threshold for a 50-yr return period. Furthermore, the Gumbel model is found to potentially underestimate the maximum hail size for certain return periods, but provides a more informed picture of the spatial distribution of extreme hail size and the regional differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Maximising the investment returns of a grid‐connected battery considering degradation cost

Energy storage systems (ESSs) are being deployed widely due to numerous benefits including operational flexibility, high ramping capability, and decreasing costs. This study investigates the economic benefits provided by battery ESSs when they are deployed for market‐related applications, considering the battery degradation cost. A comprehensive investment planning framework is presented, which estimates the maximum revenue that the ESS can generate over its lifetime and provides the necessary tools to investors for aiding the decision making process regarding an ESS project. The applications chosen for this study are energy arbitrage and frequency regulation. Lithium‐ion batteries are considered due to their wide popularity arising from high efficiency, high energy density, and declining costs. A new degradation cost model based on energy throughput and cycle count is developed for Lithium‐ion batteries participating in electricity markets. The lifetime revenue of ESS is calculated considering battery degradation and a cost–benefit analysis is performed to provide investors with an estimate of the net present value, return on investment and payback period. The effect of considering the degradation cost on the estimated revenue is also studied. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the IEEE Reliability Test System and historical data from PJM Interconnection.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Aerosol Particle Deposition on a Spent Nuclear Fuel Assembly Spacer Grid

The flow and particle deposition patterns on surfaces in an idealized spacer grid for a 17x17 pressurized water reactor (PWR) assembly in a spent fuel canister are modeled using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with laminar flow. The effects of gravitational settling, non-Stokesian flow, and particle slip are first rigorously analyzed. From the analysis, non-Stokesian effects and slip may be neglected for the particle sizes and conditions expected in a canister. For particles that do not settle out, a swirling flow pattern at the corners of a spacer grid channel directs particles to the leeward side of the flow vanes where much of the deposition occurs. Particle deposition increases with increasing particle diameter. Deposition also increases with decreasing flow velocity as this provides more time for particles to settle and deposit on the leeward side of the flow vanes. The fraction of particles that are transmitted through a spacer grid is determined as a function of inlet gas velocity and particle diameter by running the CFD calculation for each set of conditions and for each particle diameter. Curve fits of the transmission curve as a function of particle diameter for a specified spacer grid and flow velocity are applied to a lognormal particle mass density function for the inlet particles. The resulting mass density function and aerosol mass fraction that passes through the spacer grid can be determined analytically without resorting to numerical iteration. A sample calculation of the analytical solution is demonstrated for a lognormal particle mass density function.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generating Sequential PV Deployment Scenarios for High Renewable Distribution Grid Planning

This paper introduces a novel approach for generating solar photovoltaic (PV) plant deployment scenarios for grid integration planning. The approach guarantees consistency among scenarios of the same deployment by ensuring that higher penetration scenarios contain PV units deployed in lower penetration scenarios. It also constrains the size and spatial distribution of the PV plants and considers three placement types. A case study on a real-world distribution system proves that the precepts of scenario consistency, deployment diversity, and placement are met. The study further investigates the impact of the resulting scenarios via a stochastic hosting capacity analysis. Results indicate that the ratio between PV and load sizes, referred to as the nodal PV penetration factor (NPPF), is a key driver of the grid integration impact. By reducing the NPPF from 5 to 2, the maximum hosting capacity increased by at least 112%. The study also reveals that scenarios under random placement can lead to higher hosting capacity values.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generating Sequential PV Deployment Scenarios for High Renewable Distribution Grid Planning: Preprint

This paper introduces a novel approach for generating solar photovoltaic (PV) plant deployment scenarios for grid integration planning. The approach guarantees consistency among scenarios of the same deployment by ensuring that higher penetration scenarios contain PV units deployed in lower penetration scenarios. It also constrains the size and spatial distribution of the PV plants and considers three placement types. A case study on a real-world distribution system proves that the precepts of scenario consistency, deployment diversity, and placement are met. The study further investigates the impact of the resulting scenarios via a stochastic hosting capacity analysis. Results indicate that the ratio between PV and load sizes, referred to as the nodal PV penetration factor (NPPF), is a key driver of the grid integration impact. By reducing the NPPF from 5 to 2, the maximum hosting capacity increased by at least 112%. The study also reveals that scenarios under random placement can lead to higher hosting capacity values.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

SCALE modeling of foil irradiations at WSU’s TRIGA with sensitivity/uncertainty analysis

We report the Washington State University TRIGA reactor was modeled in the SCALE system’s KENO neutron transport code. The model includes 119 fuel rods, a central boral control rod, 4 control blades, 5 irradiation ports, and 20 graphite reflector blocks within a rectangular aluminum grid box. The model accurately simulated the irradiation of depleted uranium and highly enriched uranium foils and predicted reaction rate ratios for 238 U(n,2n) 237 U / 238 U(n,γ) 239 U and 99 Mo / fission, which compared favorably to empirical values previously measured at Los Alamos. Finally, a sensitivity/uncertainty analysis was performed using the continuous-energy TSUNAMI-3D module of SCALE.

237Np↗
DOE OSTI2021

Acquire and Test IDAES Framework Components

The cooperation under the Grid Modernization Initiative and the Applied Energy Tri-Laboratory umbrellas requires mutual understanding of capabilities and a common effort to identify gaps existing in the available computational modeling and analysis tools. In this work, we report acquisition and testing of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES) framework, particularly including both electric power systems production cost model simulator Prescient as well as system optimization IDAES itself. Further, we consider the methods in which developments in Prescient and IDAES for grid-energy simulation and optimization may be included in the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE) ecosystem that has been under collaborative development by Idaho National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We propose two integration methods to introduce Prescient and IDAES into existing FORCE automated workflows. One integration involves using Prescient as a market reduced-order model and IDAES models similar to how existing Modelica models are used. The other integration involves wrapping the Prescient-IDAES dispatch optimization process with the stochastic capacity optimization workflow in FORCE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for the decay B s 0 → π 0 π 0 at Belle

We report the results of the first search for the decay B$^{0}_{s}$ → π 0 ⁢π 0 using 121.4 fb -1 of data collected at the Y⁡(5⁢S) resonance with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e + ⁢e - collider. We observe no signal and set a 90% confidence level upper limit of 7.7 ×10 -6 on the B$^{0}_{s}$ → π 0 π 0 decay branching fraction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Framework to Quantify Power Grid Resilience

The quantification of an operating power grid’s resilience is highly significant today, given its criticality as an enabler of other infrastructures, complexity, and the threat it faces due to a wide range of detrimental events, from extreme climate to cyber attacks. Currently, there exist no standardized definitions and metrics for measuring the resilience of an operating grid. In this paper, we introduce a novel resilience quantification framework and demonstrate a method to measure the flexibility towards topological/structural changes due to potential failures in the power grid to assess operational resilience. We start with the state estimation data from a large utility and use the graph analysis methods and power flow simulation tools to compute the identified resilience parameters.

Yoginath, Srikanth↗
DOE OSTI2020

The arbitrary-order virtual element method for linear elastodynamics models. Convergence, stability and dispersion-dissipation analysis.

We design the conforming virtual element method for the numerical approximation of the two dimensional elastodynamics problem. We prove stability and convergence of the semi-discrete approximation and derive optimal error estimates under $\textit{h}$-refinement in both the energy and the $L^2$ norms, and optimal error estimates under $\textit{p}$-refinement in the energy norm. The performance of the proposed virtual element method is assessed on a set of different computational meshes, including non-convex cells up to order four in the h-refinement setting. Exponential convergence is also experimentally observed under p-refinement. Finally, we present a dispersion-dissipation analysis for both the semi-discrete and fully-discrete schemes, showing that polygonal meshes behave as classical simplicial/quadrilateral grids in terms of dispersion-dissipation properties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗