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DOE OSTI2022

Dispersion-enhanced sequential batch sampling for adaptive contour estimation

In computer simulation and optimal design, sequential batch sampling offers an appealing way to iteratively stipulate optimal sampling points based upon existing selections and efficiently construct surrogate modeling. Nonetheless, the issue of near duplicates poses tremendous quandary for sequential learning. It refers to the situation that selected critical points cluster together in each sampling batch, which are individually but not collectively informative towards the optimal design. Near duplicates severely diminish the computational efficiency as they barely contribute extra information towards update of the surrogate. To address this issue, we impose a dispersion criterion on concurrent selection of sampling points, which essentially forces a sparse distribution of critical points in each batch, and demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in adaptive contour estimation. Specifically, we adopt Gaussian process surrogate to emulate the simulator, acquire variance reduction of the critical region from new sampling points as a dispersion criterion, and combine it with the modified expected improvement (EI) function for critical batch selection. The critical region here is the proximity of the contour of interest. This proposed approach is vindicated in numerical examples of a two-dimensional four-branch function, a four-dimensional function with a disjoint contour of interest and a time-delay dynamic system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint Modeling of Quasar Variability and Accretion Disk Reprocessing Using Latent Stochastic Differential Equations

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing, trained with supervised learning on simulated LSST-like 10 yr quasar light curves. We encode the light curves using a transformer encoder, and the driving variability is reconstructed using latent stochastic differential equations, a physically motivated generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding the physical processes of the driving signal and reprocessing into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We demonstrate that our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wave bands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series.

Fagin, Joshua [City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (↗

NASA NTRS1973

Unsteady, combined radiation and conduction in an absorbing, scattering, and emitting medium.

The transient cooldown of a gray, absorbing, isotropic scattering, emitting, and conducting medium bounded by gray, diffusely emitting and reflecting parallel plates is considered. Numerical solutions are obtained for the initial boundary-value problem with a discontinuous decrease in temperature at one boundary. The quasi-steady equation of radiative transfer is solved using Gaussian quadrature and a matrix eigenvector technique together with explicit numerical solution of the unsteady energy equation. Temperature and energy flux distributions are presented for variations of optical thickness, boundary emissivity, albedo, and conduction-radiation parameter.

Weston, K. C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Performance Analysis of Direct-Sequence Code-Division Multiple-Access Communications with Asymmetric Quadrature Phase-Shift-Keying Modulation

This article considers a quaternary direct-sequence code-division multiple-access (DS-CDMA) communication system with asymmetric quadrature phase-shift-keying (AQPSK) modulation for unequal error protection (UEP) capability. Both time synchronous and asynchronous cases are investigated. An expression for the probability distribution of the multiple-access interference is derived. The exact bit-error performance and the approximate performance using a Gaussian approximation and random signature sequences are evaluated by extending the techniques used for uniform quadrature phase-shift-keying (QPSK) and binary phase-shift-keying (BPSK) DS-CDMA systems. Finally, a general system model with unequal user power and the near-far problem is considered and analyzed. The results show that, for a system with UEP capability, the less protected data bits are more sensitive to the near-far effect that occurs in a multiple-access environment than are the more protected bits.

Wang, C.-W.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Implementation of a fully-balanced periodic tridiagonal solver on a parallel distributed memory architecture

While parallel computers offer significant computational performance, it is generally necessary to evaluate several programming strategies. Two programming strategies for a fairly common problem - a periodic tridiagonal solver - are developed and evaluated. Simple model calculations as well as timing results are presented to evaluate the various strategies. The particular tridiagonal solver evaluated is used in many computational fluid dynamic simulation codes. The feature that makes this algorithm unique is that these simulation codes usually require simultaneous solutions for multiple right-hand-sides (RHS) of the system of equations. Each RHS solutions is independent and thus can be computed in parallel. Thus a Gaussian elimination type algorithm can be used in a parallel computation and the more complicated approaches such as cyclic reduction are not required. The two strategies are a transpose strategy and a distributed solver strategy. For the transpose strategy, the data is moved so that a subset of all the RHS problems is solved on each of the several processors. This usually requires significant data movement between processor memories across a network. The second strategy attempts to have the algorithm allow the data across processor boundaries in a chained manner. This usually requires significantly less data movement. An approach to accomplish this second strategy in a near-perfect load-balanced manner is developed. In addition, an algorithm will be shown to directly transform a sequential Gaussian elimination type algorithm into the parallel chained, load-balanced algorithm.

Eidson, T. M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Interstellar Isomers: The Importance of Bonding Energy Differences

We present strong detections of methyl cyanide (CH3CN), vinyl cyanide (CH2CHCN), ethyl cyanide (CH3CH2CN) and cyanodiacetylene (HC4CN) molecules with the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) toward the Sgr B2(N) molecular cloud. Attempts to detect the corresponding isocyanide isomers were only successful in the case of methyl isocyanide (CH3NC) for its J(sub K) = 1(sub 0) - 0(sub 0) transition, which is the first interstellar report of this line. To determine the spatial distribution of CH3NC, we used archival Berkeley-Illinois-Maryland Association (BIMA) array data for the J(sub K) = 1(sub 0) - 0(sub 0) transitions but no emission was detected. From ab initio calculations, the bonding energy difference between the cyanide and isocyanide molecules is greater than 8500 per centimeter (greater than 12,000 K). Thus, cyanides are the more stable isomers and would likely be formed more preferentially over their isocyanide counterparts. That we detect CH3NC emission with a single antenna (Gaussian beamsize(omega(sub B))=1723 arcsec(sup 2)) but not with an interferometer (omega(sub b)=192 arcsec(sup 2)), strongly suggests that CH3NC has a widespread spatial distribution toward the Sgr B2(N) region. Other investigators have shown that CH3CN is present both in the LMH hot core of Sgr B2(N) and in the surrounding medium, while we have shown that CH3NC appears to be deficient in the LMH hot core. Thus, largescale, non-thermal processes in the surrounding medium may account for the conversion of CH3CN to CH3NC while the LMH hot core, which is dominated by thermal processes, does not produce a significant amount of CH3NC. Ice analog experiments by other investigators have shown that radiation bombardment of CH3CN can produce CH3NC, thus supporting our observations. We conclude that isomers separated by such large bonding energy differences are distributed in different interstellar environments, making the evaluation of column density ratios between such isomers irrelevant unless it can be independently shown that these species are co-spatial.

Remijan, Anthony J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Impact of Land Surface Heterogeneity on Mesoscale Atmospheric Dispersion

Prior numerical modelling studies show that atmospheric dispersion is sensitive to surface heterogeneities, but past studies do not consider the impact of a realistic distribution of surface heterogeneities on mesoscale atmospheric dispersion. While these focussed on dispersion in the convective boundary layer, the present work also considers dispersion in the nocturnal boundary layer and above. Using a Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) coupled to the Eulerian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the impact of topographic, vegetation, and soil moisture heterogeneities on daytime and nighttime atmospheric dispersion is examined. In addition, the sensitivity to the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived spatial distributions of vegetation characteristics on atmospheric dispersion is also studied. The impact of vegetation and terrain heterogeneities on atmospheric dispersion is strongly modulated by soil moisture, with the nature of dispersion switching from non-Gaussian to near- Gaussian behaviour for wetter soils (fraction of saturation soil moisture content exceeding 40%). For drier soil moisture conditions, vegetation heterogeneity produces differential heating and the formation of mesoscale circulation patterns that are primarily responsible for non-Gaussian dispersion patterns. Nighttime dispersion is very sensitive to topographic, vegetation, soil moisture, and soil type heterogeneity and is distinctly non-Gaussian for heterogeneous land-surface conditions. Sensitivity studies show that soil type and vegetation heterogeneities have the most dramatic impact on atmospheric dispersion. To provide more skillful dispersion calculations, we recommend the utilisation of satellite-derived vegetation characteristics coupled with data assimilation techniques that constrain soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) models to generate realistic spatial distributions of surface energy fluxes.

Wu, Yuling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi Time-scale Imputation aided State Estimation in Distribution System

With the transition to a smart grid, we are witnessing a significant growth in sensor deployments and smart metering infrastructure in the distribution system. However, information from these sensors and meters are typically unevenly sampled at different time-scales and are incomplete. It is critical to effectively aggregate these information sources for situational awareness. In order to reconcile the heterogeneous multi-scale time-series data, we present a multi-task Gaussian process framework. This framework exploits the spatio-temporal correlation across the time-series data to impute data at any desired timescale while providing confidence bounds on the imputations. The value of the imputed data for distribution system operation is illustrated via a matrix completion based state estimation strategy. Results on the IEEE 37 bus distribution system reveals the superior performance of the proposed approach relative to linear interpolation approaches.

Dahale, Shweta↗

DOE OSTI2022

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calomplification — the power of generative calorimeter models

Motivated by the high computational costs of classical simulations, machine-learned generative models can be extremely useful in particle physics and elsewhere. They become especially attractive when surrogate models can efficiently learn the underlying distribution, such that a generated sample outperforms a training sample of limited size. This kind of GANplification has been observed for simple Gaussian models. We show the same effect for a physics simulation, specifically photon showers in an electromagnetic calorimeter.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Spoofing Cross-Entropy Measure in Boson Sampling

Cross-entropy (XE) measure is a widely used benchmark to demonstrate quantum computational advantage from sampling problems, such as random circuit sampling using superconducting qubits and boson sampling (BS). We present a heuristic classical algorithm that attains a better XE than the current BS experiments in a verifiable regime and is likely to attain a better XE score than the near-future BS experiments in a reasonable running time. The key idea behind the algorithm is that there exist distributions that correlate with the ideal BS probability distribution and that can be efficiently computed. The correlation and the computability of the distribution enable us to postselect heavy outcomes of the ideal probability distribution without computing the ideal probability, which essentially leads to a large XE. Our method scores a better XE than the recent Gaussian BS experiments when implemented at intermediate, verifiable system sizes. Much like current state-of-the-art experiments, we cannot verify that our spoofer works for quantum-advantage-size systems. However, we demonstrate that our approach works for much larger system sizes in fermion sampling, where we can efficiently compute output probabilities. Finally, we provide analytic evidence that the classical algorithm is likely to spoof noisy BS efficiently.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1986

Using a laser aureole to invert lidar return

An aureole generated by a laser beam was studied. The strength of the signal redirected towards a sensor high above the surface by a combination of one scattering event in the marine boundary layer (mbl) and one single reflection event from the ocean surface was estimated. A model of mbl aerosol size distributions was used to estimate Mie scattering for a wide range of meteorolocial conditions. The sea surface reflection was determined from a Gaussian model of the wave slopes. These laser aureoles which were estimated over the wide range of conditions and were normalized by the reflected laser light were found to be highly correlated with the optical depth of the boundary layer. By estimating optical depth from the aureole, the Bernoulli-Riccati inversion of lidar return could be constrained and the inversion accuracy improved. A Monte Carlo program was developed to study the laser aureole generated by up to 8 orders of reflection and scattering. The aureole was generated by a narrow, 10 nsec laser pulse at 1.06 microns and measured by a receiver 10 km above the ocean surface. The original theoretical computation compared well with the Monte Carlo method. When multiple scattereffects were included, the normalized aureole was still highly correlated with the mbl optical depth over the range of conditions.

Hooper, W. P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Multi-level study of C3H2: The first interstellar hydrocarbon ring

Cyclic species in the interstellar medium have been searched for almost since the first detection of interstellar polyatomic molecules. Eleven different C3H2 rotational transitions were detected; 9 of which were studied in TMC-1, a nearby dark dust cloud, are shown. The 1 sub 10 yields 1 sub 01 and 2 sub 20 yields 2 sub 11 transitions were observed with the 43 m NRAO telescope, while the remaining transitions were detected with the 14 m antenna of the Five College Radio Observatory (FCRAO). The lines detected in TMC-1 have energies above the ground state ranging from 0.9 to 17.1 K and consist of both ortho and para species. Limited maps were made along the ridge for several of the transitions. The HC3N J = 2 yields 1 transition were mapped simultaneously with the C3H2 1 sub 10 yields 1 sub 01 line and therefore can compare the distribution of this ring with a carbon chain in TMC-1. C3H2 is distributed along a narrow ridge with a SE - NW extension which is slightly more extended than the HC2N J = 2 yields 1. Gaussian fits gives a FWHP extension of 8'5 for C3H2 while HC3N has a FWHP of 7'. The data show variations of the two velocity components along the ridge as a function of transition. Most of the transitions show a peak at the position of strongest HC3N emission while the 2 sub 21 yields 2 sub 10 transition shows a peak at the NH3 position.

Madden, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Personal Computer (PC) based image processing applied to fluid mechanics

A PC based image processing system was employed to determine the instantaneous velocity field of a two-dimensional unsteady flow. The flow was visualized using a suspension of seeding particles in water, and a laser sheet for illumination. With a finite time exposure, the particle motion was captured on a photograph as a pattern of streaks. The streak pattern was digitized and processed using various imaging operations, including contrast manipulation, noise cleaning, filtering, statistical differencing, and thresholding. Information concerning the velocity was extracted from the enhanced image by measuring the length and orientation of the individual streaks. The fluid velocities deduced from the randomly distributed particle streaks were interpolated to obtain velocities at uniform grid points. For the interpolation a simple convolution technique with an adaptive Gaussian window was used. The results are compared with a numerical prediction by a Navier-Stokes computation.

Cho, Y.-C.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Personal computer (PC) based image processing applied to fluid mechanics research

A PC based image processing system was employed to determine the instantaneous velocity field of a two-dimensional unsteady flow. The flow was visualized using a suspension of seeding particles in water, and a laser sheet for illumination. With a finite time exposure, the particle motion was captured on a photograph as a pattern of streaks. The streak pattern was digitized and processsed using various imaging operations, including contrast manipulation, noise cleaning, filtering, statistical differencing, and thresholding. Information concerning the velocity was extracted from the enhanced image by measuring the length and orientation of the individual streaks. The fluid velocities deduced from the randomly distributed particle streaks were interpolated to obtain velocities at uniform grid points. For the interpolation a simple convolution technique with an adaptive Gaussian window was used. The results are compared with a numerical prediction by a Navier-Stokes commputation.

Cho, Y.-C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The structure of intense vorticity in homogeneous isotropic turbulence

The structure of the intense vorticity regions is studied in numerically simulated homogeneous, isotropic, equilibrium turbulent flow fields at four different Reynolds numbers in the range Re(sub lambda) = 36-171. In accordance with previous investigators, this vorticity is found to be organized in coherent, cylindrical or ribbon-like, vortices ('worms'). A statistical study suggests that they are just especially intense features of the background, O(omega'), vorticity. Their radii scale with the Kolmogorov microscale and their lengths with the integral scale of the flow. An interesting observation is that the Reynolds number based on the circulation of the intense vortices, gamma/nu, increases monotonically with Re(sub lambda), raising the question of the stability of the structures in the limit of Re(sub lambda) approaching infinity. One and two-dimensional statistics of vorticity and strain are presented; they are non-gaussian, and the behavior of their tails depends strongly on the Reynolds number. There is no evidence of convergence to a limiting distribution in our range of Re(sub lambda), even though the energy spectra and the energy dissipation rate show good asymptotic properties in the higher Reynolds number cases. Evidence is presented to show that worms are natural features of the flow and that they do not depend on the particular forcing scheme.

Jimenez, J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Λ Baryon Production in ν¯µ Interactions in the MicroBooNE Detector

The Cabibbo suppressed production of $\Lambda$ baryons in anti-neutrino interactions with nuclei is a rare process that is yet to be measured with a modern neutrino detector with automated reconstruction. The cross section for this process is sensitive to a number of unique nuclear effects, most notably the secondary interactions of the produced hyperon while attempting to escape from the nucleus. Other interactions within the nuclear remnant can impact the estimation of neutrino energy in oscillation measurements, and thus an accurate description of the nuclear environment is required. The strangeness violating hyperon production process is only available to anti-neutrinos. The model of this interaction is implemented into the NuWro neutrino interaction Monte Carlo simulation, and some predictions are presented, focusing on the role of nuclear effects. This model introduces a hyperon-nucleus potential, which calculations from hypernuclear theory permit to be strongly repulsive in th e case of $\Sigma$ baryons. The presence of this potential is found to sculpt the shape of the differential cross section in some variables. The MicroBooNE detector will be described, followed by a description of a measurement of the flux averaged, restricted phase space cross section of Cabibbo suppressed $\Lambda$ baryon production. A sophisticated event selection is employed, as a very large quantity of background neutrino interactions must be removed to perform the measurement with any sensitivity. This selection introduces some novel techniques such as the island finding method, and achieves a background reduction of $\sim 10^6$, with an efficiency of around 7\%. The calculation of the systematic uncertainties will be explained, including two procedures explored to handle sources of background with extremely poor simulation statistics: an in-situ constraint using data from sidebands, and a visual inspection of the data and simulation to remove the troublesome background events. The sensitivity to the $\Lambda$ baryon production cross section is calculated in the form of Bayesian posterior probability distributions, combining the systematic uncertainties with data and simulation statistical uncertainties. As a rare process, the statistical uncertainties are highly non-Gaussian, and the Bayesian approach is applied to include the full shapes of these uncertainties. Data corresponding to $2.2 \times 10^{20}$ protons on target of neutrino mode running and $4.9 \times 10^{20}$ protons on target of anti-neutrino running is analysed. When the data was unblinded, five $\Lambda$ production candidates were selected from the data, consistent with the MC simulation prediction of $5.3 \pm 1.1$ events. The final estimated cross section is $1.8^{+2.0}_{-1.6} \times 10^{-40}$cm$^2/$Ar when employing the sideband constraint procedure. A similar result of $2.0^{+2.2}_{-1.8} \times 10^{-40}$cm$^2/$Ar is obtained when performing the visual scan instead. The methods used in t his analysis are intended to be easily exported to other LArTPC detectors such as the Short Baseline Near Detector.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗