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The spatial distribution of ionospheric threats to WAAS integrity, 2000 – 2019: a systematic analysis

The United States’ Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) broadcasts data to facilitate aircraft navigation. This paper examines the spatial dependence of ionospheric disturbances that have threatened the accuracy and reliability of position estimates derived from these data over the period 2000 – 2019. We address two distinct aspects of this spatial dependence: (1) the geographic distribution of these threats, in particular, in relation to geomagnetic latitude, and (2) the geometric dependence of threats relative to the locations of the receiver sites that comprise the WAAS network. We analyze threat distributions in terms of the various means that WAAS employs to mitigate these threats, including the Extreme Storm Detector, the Moderate Storm Detector, local irregularity detectors, and the ionospheric threat model. Distinct distributions are presented for threats occurring in Solar Cycle 23 and those of Solar Cycle 24. To study the geometric dependence of threats on receiver locations, we use as a metric the distance separating a threat from the centroid of the nearest Ncentroid receivers. Large values of this metric identify threats at or beyond the edge of coverage. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results for WAAS operations.

Altshuler, Eric↗

A brief history of magnetospheric physics before the spaceflight era

Early research on the earth's magnetic environment is reviewed, with attention given to the period when only ground-based observations were possible. Early work on geomagnetism is discussed as well as the sunspot cycle, solar fares, the possibility of electron beams from the sun, and the Chapman-Ferraro cavity. Consideration is also given to the ring current, Alfvens theory and electric fields, interplanetary plasma, and polar magnetic storms.

Stern, David P.↗

Radiation Belt Storm Probe (RBSP) Mission

Scheduled to launch in May 2012, NASA's dual spacecraft Living With a Star Radiation Belt Storm Probe mission carries the field and particle instrumentation needed to determine the processes that produce enhancements in radiation belt ion and electron fluxes, the dominant mechanisms that cause the loss of relativistic electrons, and the manner by which the ring current and other geomagnetic phenomena affect radiation belt behavior. The two spacecraft will operate in low-inclination elliptical lapping orbits around the Earth, within and immediately exterior to the Van Allen radiation belts. During course of their two year primary mission, they will cover the full range of local times, measuring both AC and DC electric and magnetic fields to 10kHz, as well as ions from 50 eV to 1 GeV and electrons with energies ranging from 50 eV to 10 MeV.

Sibeck, D. G.↗

Geomagnetic response to solar activity.

The relationship between solar activity and geomagnetic variations is discussed in the light of spacecraft data obtained during the last decade. The effects of centers of solar activity responsible for producing geomagnetic activity on earth are believed to be transmitted through the solar wind, and there is usually a delay of two or three days before the onset of magnetic activity. Attempts to make a one-to-one correspondence between specific solar events and specific magnetic storms, however, are usually unsuccessful, because of the complex and indirect processes linking the two phenomena. Normally, only statistical tendencies can be shown.

Mead, G. D.↗

Hydromagnetic waves at low latitudes - A symposium review from the fifth IAGA assembly

The aim of the symposium was to bring together investigators with interests in low latitude hydromagnetic waves in order to review the present state of knowledge in this area of magnetospheric physics. Of particular importance is the means by which wave energy is transferred to low latitudes to produce geomagnetic pulsations on the ground. The group of contributed papers reviewed shows that definitive experiments are underway and new theories capable of providing resonant wave energy at low latitudes are being developed. Particular topics covered by the review include solar wind control, wave spectra, array studies of wave parameters, storm time waves, and global wave resonance theory involving the coupling of compressional and transverse waves in the magnetosphere.

Fraser, B. J.↗

Cleft contribution to ring current formation

The storm time transport of ionospheric plasma from the 'cleft fountain' to the plasma sheet and ring current is investigated by means of three-dimensional trajectory codes. Using observations to define the source location and flow rate, test particles are traced during a 'taillike' to 'dipolelike' reconfiguration of the geomagnetic field. Emphasis is placed on the behavior of heavy ions of low charge state, O(+). As a result of their long periods of gyration, these ions are highly sensitive to rapid field variations and possibly display transient nonadiabatic motions. It is demonstrated that O(+) which have originated in the high-latitude ionosphere but which find themselves in the vicinity of the equator at substorm onset can experience considerable energization (from several keV up to several hundred keV) and pitch angle increase leading to trapping, as an effect of the induced electric field.

Delcourt, D. C.↗

Stratospheric Ozone Variations Caused by Solar Proton Events between 1963 and the Present

Solar proton fluxes have been measured by satellites for over forty years (1963-present). Several satellites, including the Interplanetary Monitoring Platforms (1963-1993) and the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (1994-present), have been used to compile this long-term dataset. Some solar storms lead to solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth, which typically last a few days. High energy solar protons associated with SPEs precipitate on the Earth's atmosphere and cause increases in odd hydrogen (HO(x)) and odd nitrogen (NO(y)) in the polar cap region (>60 degrees geomagnetic). The enhanced HO(x) leads to short-lived ozone depletion (-days) due to the short lifetime of HOx constituents. The enhanced NO(y) leads to long-lived ozone changes because of the long lifetime of the NO(y) family in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere. Very large SPEs occurred in 1972, 1989, 2000, 2001, and 2003 and were predicted to cause significant polar upper stratospheric ozone depletion (>10%), which lasted for several weeks past the events. Several satellite instruments (BUV, SBUV, SBUV/2, SAGE II, HALOE, SCIAMACHY, MIPAS, GOMOS, etc.) have measured ozone changes as a result of SPEs. The long-term influence of SPEs on ozone will be discussed in this presentation.

Jackman, Charles H.↗

Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

space weather↗

Results of magnetic surveys of the magnetosphere and adjacent regions.

Review of the gross features of the magnetic fields in the magnetosphere and its vicinity that have been explored in the past several years by extensive spacecraft observations. The magnetopause, the bow shock, the magnetosheath, and the geomagnetic tail are discussed. Results of a recent study of the OGO 1 and 3 satellite data taken in the near tail region, the magnetic field disturbances observed in the magnetosphere, and brief accounts of quantitative models of the magnetosphere are also reviewed. Special attention is given to the storm-time ring current and to polar substorms or magnetic bays.

Sugiura, M.↗

Plasmasphere Empirical Modeling with the IMAGE Mission

Empirical models of plasmaspheric properties date from the pioneering work of Storey where he developed the analysis of ground whistler observations that lead to his estimate for the equatorial plasma density at L=3. The most recent in situ satellite study takes us to 1000 CRRES satellite passes and a statistical analysis of the plasmapause location at all local times and for varying geomagnetic conditions by Moldwin et al. These and many other studies over the intervening 49 years have given us a strong familiarity with the distribution of cold plasmaspheric ions throughout the magnetosphere. The major components of inner plasmasphere, nightside bulge, sunward convection tail, and plasmapause are all well established. Storm-time erosion and the resulting ionospheric refilling has been encompassed, even if not completely understood. Small-scale density variations near the plasmapause and extending at least to geosynchronous orbit have been characterized in a variety of ways, even though we do not yet understand their origin. This paper will present early empirical modeling results from the inversion of IMAGE/EW global intensity images to density distributions. Densities are obtained in this initial study through use of forward image modeling with a simple 3-parameter plasmaspheric and plasmapause mathematical model. Individual interior plasmaspheric density profiles and plasmapause locations are obtained every 10 degrees in magnetic local time for each E W image analyzed. Derived profile parameters are statistically characterized in the context of storm magnitude and evolution. Identified patterns in the appearance of plasmaspheric structures, plasmapause erosion, and refilling will be presented. Comparisons to existing empirical plasmaspheric models and the implications for new modeling will be presented. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Gallagher, D. L.↗

Comparative Accuracies of Models for Drag Prediction During Geomagnetically Disturbed Periods: A First Principles Model Versus Empirical Models

We examine the accuracy of density prediction by the first principles model Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and compare it to the accuracy of three empirical models: Jacchia 71, the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter Extended 2000 (NRLMSIS), Jacchia 1971, and Jacchia-Bowman 2008. Comparisons are made for three large storms: the October 2003 storm, the March 2013 storm, and the March 2015 storm. To evaluate the accuracy of these models we use tracking data for nine space objects in low Earth orbit. Additionally, we evaluate the accuracy of the TIEGCM and NRLMSIS with data from high precision accelerometers on the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity field and Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellites. The goal is to assess the use of a first principles model as a potential tool for forecasting satellite drag during large magnetic storms. For the storms considered, we found the TIEGCM, JB2008, and NRLMSIS models to be substantially more accurate than the Jacchia 71 model. The accuracies of the TIEGCM and JB2008 models were similar, but overall, the TIEGCM was more accurate. We found smaller differences for TIEGCM versus CHAMP than for NRLMIS for the Halloween Storm, and smaller differences than results published for JB2008 and the assimilative model HASDM. The empirical models are at present more practical for operational purposes, but the TIEGCM, developed as a research model, with a greater focus on operational use offers the potential for improved utility during stressing conditions.

R. L. Walterscheid↗

CAWSES November 7-8, 2004, Superstorm: Complex Solar and Interplanetary Features in the Post-Solar Maximum Phase

The complex interplanetary structures during 7 to 8 Nov 2004 are analyzed to identify their properties as well as resultant geomagnetic effects and the solar origins. Three fast forward shocks, three directional discontinuities and two reverse waves were detected and analyzed in detail. The three fast forward shocks 'pump' up the interplanetary magnetic field from a value of approx.4 nT to ~44 nT. However, the fields after the shocks were northward, and magnetic storms did not result. The three ram pressure increases were associated with major sudden impulses (SI + s) at Earth. A magnetic cloud followed the third forward shock and the southward Bz associated with the latter was responsible for the superstorm. Two reverse waves were detected, one at the edge and one near the center of the magnetic cloud (MC). It is suspected that these 'waves' were once reverse shocks which were becoming evanescent when they propagated into the low plasma beta MC. The second reverse wave caused a decrease in the southward component of the IMF and initiated the storm recovery phase. It is determined that flares located at large longitudinal distances from the subsolar point were the most likely causes of the first two shocks without associated magnetic clouds. It is thus unlikely that the shocks were 'blast waves' or that magnetic reconnection eroded away the two associated MCs. This interplanetary/solar event is an example of the extremely complex magnetic storms which can occur in the post-solar maximum phase.

solar flares↗

Influence of Solar-Geomagnetic Disturbances on SABER Measurements of 4.3 Micrometer Emission and the Retrieval of Kinetic Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

Thermospheric infrared radiance at 4.3 micrometers is susceptible to the influence of solar-geomagnetic disturbances. Ionization processes followed by ion-neutral chemical reactions lead to vibrationally excited NO(+) (i.e., NO(+)(v)) and subsequent 4.3 micrometer emission in the ionospheric E-region. Large enhancements of nighttime 4.3 m emission were observed by the TIMED/SABER instrument during the April 2002 and October-November 2003 solar storms. Global measurements of infrared 4.3 micrometer emission provide an excellent proxy to observe the nighttime E-region response to auroral dosing and to conduct a detailed study of E-region ion-neutral chemistry and energy transfer mechanisms. Furthermore, we find that photoionization processes followed by ion-neutral reactions during quiescent, daytime conditions increase the NO(+) concentration enough to introduce biases in the TIMED/SABER operational processing of kinetic temperature and CO2 data, with the largest effect at summer solstice. In this paper, we discuss solar storm enhancements of 4.3 micrometer emission observed from SABER and assess the impact of NO(+)(v) 4.3 micrometer emission on quiescent, daytime retrievals of Tk/CO2 from the SABER instrument.

Mertens, Christopher J.↗

Investigation from Japanese MAGSAT Team. Part A. Crustal structure near Japan and in Antarctic station. Part B. Electric currents and hydromagnetic waves in the ionosphere and the magnetosphere

Preliminary results of MAGSAT data analysis are described. Regional anomaly maps (deviations from the MGST model field) for X,Y,Z, and F in the area of 115 to 155 deg E and 20 to 60 deg N were obtained. A similar map for the geomagnetic total force anomaly in the vicinity of Japan showed that the observed anomaly can be explained by the difference in crustal magnetization between the Japan Sea and the Japan Island, which reflects a difference of 25 km in the thickness of the magnetized layer. The MAGSAT record of a sudden commencement of a magnetic storm above the South Atlantic Ocean showed a reverse impulse particularly in the D-component. Results relating to toroidal currents in the ionosphere, transverse and parallel perturbations over the polar regions, the relationship between field aligned currents and precipitating electrons, and the calculation of the subsatellite electric field are also discussed.

Fukushima, N.↗

Long-term Trends in Interplanetary Magnetic Field Strength and Solar Wind Structure during the 20th Century

Lockwood et al have recently reported an approximately 40% increase in the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth between 1964 and 1996. We argue that this increase does not constitute a secular trend but is largely the consequence of lower than average fields during solar cycle 20 (1964-1976) in comparison with surrounding cycles. For times after 1976 the average IMF strength has actually decreased slightly. Examination of the cosmic ray intensity, an indirect measure of the IMF strength, over the last five solar cycles (19-23) also indicates that cycle averages of the IMF strength have been relatively constant since approximately 1954. We also consider the origin of the well-documented increase in the geomagnetic alphaalpha index that occurred primarily during the first half of the twentieth century. We surmise that the coronal mass ejection (CME) rate for recent solar cycles was approximately twice as high as that for solar cycles 100 years ago. However, this change in the CME rate and the accompanying increase in 27-day recurrent storm activity reported by others are unable to account completely for the increase in alphaalpha. Rather, the CMEs and recurrent high-speed streams at the beginning of the twentieth century must have been embedded in a background of slow solar wind that was less geoeffective (having, for example, lower IMF strength and/or flow speed) than its modern counterpart.

Richardson, I. G.↗

Effects of electric field methods on modeling the midlatitude ionospheric electrodynamics and inner magnetosphere dynamics

Here, we report a self-consistent electric field coupling between the midlatitude ionospheric electrodynamics and inner magnetosphere dynamics represented in a kinetic ring current model. This implementation in the model features another self-consistency in addition to its already existing self-consistent magnetic field coupling with plasma. The model is therefore named as Ring current-Atmosphere interaction Model with Self-Consistent magnetic (B) and electric (E) fields, or RAM-SCB-E. With this new model, we explore, by comparing with previously employed empirical Weimer potential, the impact of using self-consistent electric fields on the modeling of storm time global electric potential distribution, plasma sheet particle injection, and the subauroral polarization streams (SAPS) which heavily rely on the coupled interplay between the inner magnetosphere and midlatitude ionosphere. We find the following phenomena in the self-consistent model: (1) The spatially localized enhancement of electric field is produced within 2.5 < L < 4 during geomagnetic active time in the dusk-premidnight sector, with a similar dynamic penetration as found in statistical observations. (2) The electric potential contours show more substantial skewing toward the postmidnight than the Weimer potential, suggesting the resistance on the particles from directly injecting toward the low-L region. (3) The proton flux indeed indicates that the plasma sheet inner boundary at the dusk-premidnight sector is located further away from the Earth than in the Weimer potential, and a “tongue” of low-energy protons extends eastward toward the dawn, leading to the Harang reversal. (4) SAPS are reproduced in the subauroral region, and their magnitude and latitudinal width are in reasonable agreement with data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Examination of Selected Geomagnetic Indices in Relation to the Sunspot Cycle

Previous studies have shown geomagnetic indices to be useful for providing early estimates for the size of the following sunspot cycle several years in advance. Examined this study are various precursor methods for predicting the minimum and maximum amplitude of the following sunspot cycle, these precursors based on the aa and Ap geomagnetic indices and the number of disturbed days (NDD), days when the daily Ap index equaled or exceeded 25. Also examined is the yearly peak of the daily Ap index (Apmax), the number of days when Ap greater than or equal to 100, cyclic averages of sunspot number R, aa, Ap, NDD, and the number of sudden storm commencements (NSSC), as well the cyclic sums of NDD and NSSC. The analysis yields 90-percent prediction intervals for both the minimum and maximum amplitudes for cycle 24, the next sunspot cycle. In terms of yearly averages, the best regressions give Rmin = 9.8+/-2.9 and Rmax = 153.8+/-24.7, equivalent to Rm = 8.8+/-2.8 and RM = 159+/-5.5, based on the 12-mo moving average (or smoothed monthly mean sunspot number). Hence, cycle 24 is expected to be above average in size, similar to cycles 21 and 22, producing more than 300 sudden storm commencements and more than 560 disturbed days, of which about 25 will be Ap greater than or equal to 100. On the basis of annual averages, the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24 will be either 2006 or 2007.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Ion cyclotron waves observed in the polar cusp.

During the penetration by Ogo 5 of the low-latitude disturbed polar cusp region on Nov. 1, 1968, while a major magnetic storm was in progress, a variety of plasma wave activity was observed. Observations of waves with amplitudes less than 2% of the background magnetic field intensity and having frequencies between approximately 0.67 and 0.87 times the local proton gyrofrequency are described. The polarization of these waves indicates that they are propagating at an appreciable angle to the local geomagnetic field line direction. The source of these waves has not been determined, but currents and gradient drifts are suggested as possible agents.

Fredricks, R. W.↗