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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Ocean’s Breath: How Autonomous Robotic Vehicles at Sea and Super Computers are Helping us Understand the Carbon Cycle in the Ocean

Carbon dioxide due to human activities such as fossil fuel burning has well-known and concerning implications for global temperatures as well as terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Hence, an important objective of NASA Earth science is to observe and understand the variations in the global carbon cycle and the associated climate and ecosystem impacts in the context of past and projected anthropogenic emissions. In my presentation, I will tell the story of how some of my collaborators and I are using autonomous robotic vehicles and super computers to try to untangle the mysteries of the carbon cycle in the ocean, which depends in fascinating ways on atmospheric and ocean physics, marine ecosystem dynamics, as well as the chemistry of the seawater.

Ocean's breath↗
NASA NTRS2022

Delaware Basin Health and Air Quality: Spatiotemporal Analysis of Air Pollutants Collected from Ground and Space Instruments Around the Guadalupe Mountains and Carlsbad Caverns National Parks

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a precursor for secondary air pollutants, which are associated with decreased visibility, and decreased ecosystem and respiratory health. NO2 is a growing threat to national parks within the Delaware Basin where nearby oil and gas activity contributes to deteriorating park conditions, implying adverse effects on the local tourism economy and public health. To demonstrate spatial and temporal patterns of air pollution in the parks, we examined average monthly, seasonal, and annual tropospheric column concentrations of NO2 in Carlsbad Caverns (CAVE) and Guadalupe Mountain (GUMO) National Parks. We used both the NASA Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the European Space Agency (ESA) Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) to map NO2 tropospheric column densities. Using ground-based emissions values from the Environmental Protection Agency National Emissions Inventory (NEI) for two nearby natural gas processing plants (Indian Basin Gas Plant, South Carlsbad Plant), we extrapolated monthly trends from these point sources and compared seasonal emissions levels with the measurements recorded by OMI and TROPOMI. The NEI data show an 8% increase in flaring from 2013–2021. OMI measured a 38.3% NO2 increase over the Delaware Basin, 15.29% increase over CAVE, and 4.26% decrease over GUMO from 2011–2018. TROPOMI measured a -1% NO2 change over the Delaware Basin, 3% over CAVE, and 7% over GUMO from 2018–2020. The analysis indicates a positive correlation between emissions from fossil fuel exploration and NO2 concentrations above CAVE and GUMO. This information will inform National Park Service air quality monitoring and policy efforts to ensure compliance with the Clean Air Act.

Sean Cusick↗
NASA NTRS2022

Scientist-Stakeholder Relationships Drive Carbon Data Product Transfer Effectiveness within NASA Program

Carbon cycle science is at the heart of research on global climate change and its long-term impacts, as it examines the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and the impact of fossil fuel emissions on this cycling. Given the urgency of the climate challenge, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) requires all funded investigators to identify and work with stakeholder organizations at project inception to accelerate the transfer of the products developed by funded research into decision making systems. In this study, we contribute to the literature through the implementation of a quantitative analysis of 908 unique survey responses from funded investigators to explore the maturity of the scientist-stakeholder engagement. The paper employs multiple correspondence analysis to provide evidence to support policy options to increase stakeholder integration into research programs. Despite limitations of the dataset used, we demonstrated that multiple funding rounds, long-standing relationships between the stakeholder and scientist, and the scientific productivity of the PI, including the ability to produce datasets and research papers on these datasets, all contribute to carbon products moving from research to operational use. The maturity of relationships between scientists and stakeholders was shown to result improved stakeholder engagement. The use of carbon products should be identified in every stage of the program, and that capacity building is needed to support both existing and newly identified stakeholders better understand and use CMS products. As Federal, State, and local policy on climate adaptation and mitigation matures, the need for information on carbon will expand. Building of stakeholder-scientist relationships in CMS results in an effective generation and use of datasets to support this need and prototype ways that improved information needed for decision making can be created.

Monitoring↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparing Satellite Measurements of Volcanic SO2 Mass from OMI, OMPS and TROPOMI

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a major air pollutant that contributes to acid rain and aerosol formation (e.g., sulfates), adversely affects the environment and human health, and explosive volcanic SO2 emissions can impact climate. The majority of SO2 emissions are related to anthropogenic processes (e.g., fossil fuel burning, metal ore smelting operations), although natural processes such as volcanic eruptions and degassing also play an important role as anthropogenic SO2 emissions continue to decline. Generally, the most interest in volcanoes occurs during major eruptions. We will focus on comparing volcanic SO2 outgassing that occurs on an almost daily basis from lesser known volcanoes using satellite data. At NASA’s Global Sulfur Dioxide Monitoring Home page (https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/), we have been posting daily SO2 maps from 40 volcanic and industrial regions around the world using measurements from three satellite instruments; the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA’s Earth Observing System Aura satellite, the Ozone Monitoring and Profiler Suite (OMPS) onboard the NASA-NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite, and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the ESA/Copernicus Sentinel-5 Precursor satellite. These instruments in low Earth sun-synchronous polar orbits with 1:30-2:00 pm equator crossing local time provide daily SO2 maps at different spatial resolutions: 13 x 24 km2, 50 x 50 km2 and 5.5 x 3.5 km2 for OMI, OMPS and TROPOMI respectively. Data from OMI are available since October 2004 (partial coverage since 2008), from OMPS since 2012 and from TROPOMI since 2018. We will present comparative SO2 mass time-series (see Hunga-Tonga plot) and statistical analyses of recent eruptions that have data from all the instruments.

SO2↗
NASA NTRS2022

Estimating Emissions of Methane Consistent with Atmospheric Measurements of Methane and δC-13 of Methane

We have constructed an atmospheric inversion framework based on TM5-4DVAR to jointly assimilate measurements of methane and δC-13 of methane in order to estimate source-specific methane emissions. Here we present global emission estimates from this framework for the period 1999–2016. We assimilate a newly constructed, multi-agency database of CH4 and δC-13 measurements. We find that traditional CH4-only atmospheric inversions are unlikely to estimate emissions consistent with atmospheric δC-13 data and assimilating δC-13 data is necessary to derive emissions consistent with both measurements. Our framework attributes ca. 85% of the post-2007 growth in atmospheric methane to microbial sources, with about half of that coming from the tropics between 23.5° N and 23.5° S. This contradicts the attribution of the recent growth in the methane budget of the Global Carbon Project (GCP). We find that the GCP attribution is only consistent with our top-down estimate in the absence of δC-13 data. We find that at global and continental scales, δC-13 data can separate microbial from fossil methane emissions much better than CH4 data alone, and at smaller scales this ability is limited by the current δC-13 measurement coverage. Finally, we find that the largest uncertainty in using δC-13 data to separate different methane source types comes from our knowledge of atmospheric chemistry, specifically the distribution of tropospheric chlorine and the isotopic discrimination of the methane sink.

Methane↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electrochemical Recycling of CO2

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a molecule that plays multiple roles in our universe. Currently, its impact on global warming has rightfully given CO2 a label as a harmful waste product that must be amply handled. Nonetheless, under other circumstances, and from other perspectives, CO2 could be regarded as a valuable resource. As example, in nature CO2 is an essential building block in photosynthesis ultimately yielding molecules and materials that we harvest for numerous applications ranging from energy storage and construction to medicines and food. In a similar manner, there is a growing interest to utilize atmospheric CO2 to generate renewable fuels and platform chemicals through artificial processes. These processes can replace fossil based industrial processes on earth alleviating climate impact, but they can also find uses far away from our planet. In space, CO2 is an important source of precious oxygen, however, it can also serve as feedstock for carbon-based molecules and materials that are needed to sustain societies at distant planets such as Mars. In this presentation, I will discuss the contemporary understanding of electrochemical reduction of CO2 for selective production of desired molecules. We will zoom in to the very atomic scale to gain mechanistic understanding of how the structure and composition of the cathode electrode affects product distributions. This information is used as guide in the design of new materials that convert CO2 more efficiently and more selectively. On this basis, opportunities for recycling CO2 under different conditions will be discussed, as will remaining challenges for the ultimate application towards the sustainable human living on earth and in space.

electrochemistry↗
NASA NTRS2020

Preservation of Organic Carbon in Dolomitized Cambrian Stromatolites and Implications for Microbial Biosignatures in Diagenetically Replaced Carbonate Rock

Stromatolites have been a major focus in the search for ancient microbial life, however, the organic carbon biosignatures of dolomitized stromatolites have not yet been fully characterized or correlated with their dolomitizing conditions. Although dolomitization rarely preserves microbial morphology, the presence of organic carbon can provide valuable information for characterization of fossils’ biogenicity, syngenicity, and indigeneity to their host rock. The Cambrian Allentown Formation in New Jersey, USA, is an excellent example of dolomitized stromatolites and thrombolites containing diagenetically modified microbial biosignatures. Based on XRD and EPMA data, the dolomite composition is typically stoichiometric, with varying degrees of cationic ordering. The outcrop underwent early dolomitization in a marginal-marine setting and later burial diagenesis resulting in multi-generational dolomite formation: (1) 2 microspar dolomite formed by early diagenetic replacement at or near the surface, (2) zoned dolomite formed penecontemporaneously with the microspar phase as rhombohedral crystals by infilling primary pore spaces within the microspar matrix. The rhombic crystals continued to grow outward in alternating stages of Fe-enriched and -depleted fluids, which were preserved in zoned rims and revealed by cathodoluminescence, and (3) saddle dolomite formed during late stage deep burial with Fe- and Mn-rich fluids, and occurs as a void-filling, high-temperature phase. Organic carbon, characterized using confocal Raman microscopy, has an exclusive distribution within the microspar dolomite, and the D and G bands’ characteristics reveal similar thermal alteration to the host rock, indicating that the mapped organic carbon is indigenous and syngenetic with the Cambrian carbonates. The findings presented in this study reveal organic matter found within microspar of various dolomitized facies deriving from different source pools of organic carbon. This study sheds light on biosignatures in secondary dolostones and may aid biosignature detection in older carbonate rocks on Earth and Mars.

Dolomitization↗
NASA NTRS2022

Scientist-Stakeholder Relationships Drive Carbon Data Product Transfer Effectiveness within NASA Program

Carbon cycle science is at the heart of research on global climate change and its long-term impacts, as it examines the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and the impact of fossil fuel emissions on this cycling. Given the urgency of the climate challenge, NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) requires all funded investigators to identify and work with stakeholder organizations at project inception to accelerate the transfer of the products developed by funded research into decision making systems. In this study, we contribute to the literature through the implementation of a quantitative analysis of 908 unique survey responses from funded investigators to explore the maturity of the scientist-stakeholder engagement. The paper employs multiple correspondence analysis to provide evidence to support policy options to increase stakeholder integration into research programs. Despite limitations of the dataset used, we demonstrated that multiple funding rounds, long-standing relationships between the stakeholder and scientist, and the scientific productivity of the Principal Investigator, including the ability to produce datasets and research papers on these datasets, all contribute to carbon products moving from research to operational use. The maturity of relationships between scientists and stakeholders was shown to result improved stakeholder engagement. The use of carbon products should be identified in every stage of the program, and that capacity building is needed to support both existing and newly identified stakeholders better understand and use CMS products. As federal, state, and local policy on climate adaptation and mitigation matures, the need for information on carbon will expand. Building of stakeholder-scientist relationships in CMS results in an effective generation and use of datasets to support this need and prototype ways that improved information needed for decision making can be created.

Molly E Brown↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detectability of anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial carbon storage through space-based greenhouse gas observations

While changes in human activity and their impact on the terrestrial biosphere may be apparent in inventory and land-surface satellite data, reliably matching these changes to signals in atmospheric greenhouse gases remains challenging. The dominant signals in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are those of the seasonal and diurnal variability of the terrestrial biosphere. As a result, the historically large short-term change in anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions due to COVID-19 produced an atmospheric CO2 signal near the threshold of detectability of the current space-based observing system. Impacts of anthropogenic activity on terrestrial carbon storage are likewise expected to be difficult, if not impossible, to detect and validate with atmospheric observations. For example, many forest management projects involve reduction of wood removals that would otherwise be taken off site and decompose years later and are thus not reflected in immediate onsite carbon fluxes. Nevertheless, changes implemented over a jurisdictional scale, as opposed to individual projects, may be detectable. This presentation will analyze to what extent NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)/Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) assimilated column CO2 (XCO2) product is able to detect anthropogenic changes to terrestrial carbon storage and the results of several simulation experiments meant to represent potential forest management scenarios. As examples, we consider past and future changes due to conversion in the Tropics to agricultural land use from slash-and-burn, e.g., from Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+) efforts. This has the potential to inform what practices may be observable with current and future technology, e.g., Europe’s upcoming CO2 monitoring mission (CO2M), and where improvement is needed.

Brad Weir↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Nature of Quaternary Climate Change

Dynamic interactions between atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere, driven by solar energy and modulated by atmospheric greenhouse gasses, volcanism, and plate tectonics produce substantial variations in Earth's climate over geologic time. Major Quaternary drivers of climate change include variations in Earth's orbital cycles, global temperature, natural atmospheric greenhouse gasses, and continental ice mass. Multiple abrupt climate perturbations with onsets of a century to decades have also occurred. Since the 1970s, geologically unprecedented rising levels of anthropogenic greenhouse gasses from fossil fuel combustion, industry, and agriculture have become the dominant contributors to rising global temperature, glacier and ice sheet losses, and sea level rise.

Solar variability↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Has NO(2) in Metropolitan Areas Returned to Pre-COVID-19 Levels as Measured by OMI Satellite Data?

Nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) are primarily emitted through the combustion of fossil fuels, such as automobiles and power plants. NOx can contribute to chemical reactions that produce ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution. Using tropospheric vertical column density (TVCD) NO2 data from satellite hyperspectral instruments, such as the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA’s EOS Aura satellite, one can monitor changes in NO2 pollution during “black-swan” events, such as mobility restrictions during COVID-19 lockdowns. Our OMI team has created the Global Nitrogen Dioxide Monitoring Home Page (https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/no2/no2_index.html ) where we display NO2 TVCD time series, animated maps, and COVID-specific NO2 anomalies comparing to a pre-COVID five-year average for 317 cities and regions around the world. During the pandemic as a result of the widespread lockdowns, many areas saw low NO2 anomalies superimposed on the natural weather related NO2 changes, such as seasonal NO2 cycle. Has NO2 levels returned to pre-Covid-19 levels in large metropolitan areas? We analyze NO2 time series from March through September for the years 2020-2023 using as a reference the average NO2 from 2015-2019 for those months. We will present data from selected cities that represent all countries.

Keith D Evans↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Feasibility Study of an All-Electric 150 Passenger Aircraft

Among the potential future technologies for low-carbon transport aircraft, all-electric concepts stand out environmentally, yet their feasibility and cost-effectiveness at scale remain uncertain. This paper examines the conceptual design of an all-electric 150-passenger aircraft with a range of 840 NM based on assumed future battery cell-level specific energy of1620Wh/kg. The tube and wing design is propelled by open rotors driven by four electric motors per nacelle and utilizes advanced structural materials for weight reduction. Powertrain technology gaps are identified. The conceptual design shows that all-electric aviation could supplant about 30% of current fossil fuel use by transport aircraft and potentially more with air-traffic-control modifications.

electric aircraft↗
NASA NTRS2023

Protracted oxygenation across the Cambrian–Ordovician transition: A key initiator of the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event?

Fluctuations in marine oxygen concentrations have been invoked as a primary driver for changes in biodiversity throughout Earth history. Expansions in reducing marine conditions are commonly invoked as key causal mechanisms for mass extinctions, while increases in marine oxygenation are becoming an increasingly common causal mechanism invoked for biodiversification events. Here we utilize a multiproxy approach to constrain local and global marine paleoredox conditions throughout the late Cambrian–Early Ordovician from two drill core successions in Baltoscandia. Local paleoredox proxies such as manganese concentrations and iron speciation reveal that both sites in the Baltic paleobasin had persistently anoxic and predominantly euxinic (anoxic and sulfidic) bottom water conditions throughout the study interval. Corresponding trace metal datasets indicate nuanced contraction and expansion of global anoxic and euxinic conditions along continental margins during the late Cambrian–Early Ordovician. Lastly, thallium isotope data from these locally reducing sections suggest a global expansion of oxygenated shelf and deeper marine environments from the late Cambrian into the Early Ordovician. This evidence for increasingly oxic marine environments coincides with increases in burrowing depth and tiering in marine animals, as well as diversification of body fossils throughout this ~8-million-year interval. The collective geochemical datasets provide some of the first direct paleoredox evidence for an increase in marine oxygen concentrations as a key mechanism for the Ordovician radiation of marine life

anoxia↗
NASA NTRS2024

Life on the Edge: The Cambrian Marine Realm and Oxygenation

The beginning of the Phanerozoic saw two biological events that set the stage for all life that was to come: (a) the Cambrian Explosion (the appearance of most marine invertebrate phyla) and (b) the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE), the subsequent substantial accumulation of marine biodiversity. Here, we examine the current state of understanding of marine environments and ecosystems from the late Ediacaran through the Early Ordovician, which spans this biologically important interval. Through a compilation and review of the existing geochemical, mineralogical, sedimentological, and fossil records, we argue that this interval was one of sustained low and variable marine oxygen levels that both led to animal extinction and fostered biodiversification events throughout the Cambrian and Early Ordovician. Therefore, marine ecosystems of this interval existed on the edge—with enough oxygen to sustain them but with the perennial risk of environmental stressors that could overwhelm them.

redox↗
NASA NTRS2023

Spatial distributions of Tribrachidium, Rugoconites, and Obamus from the Ediacara Member (Rawnsley Quartzite), South Australia

The spatial distribution of in situ sessile organisms, including those from the fossil record, provides information about life histories, such as possible dispersal and/or settlement mechanisms, and how taxa interact with one another and their local environments. At Nilpena Ediacara National Park (NENP), South Australia, the exquisite preservation and excavation of 33 fossiliferous bedding planes from the Ediacara Member of the Rawnsley Quartzite reveals in situ communities of the Ediacara Biota. Here, the spatial distributions of three relatively common taxa, Tribrachidium, Rugoconites, and Obamus, occurring on excavated surfaces were analyzed using spatial point pattern analysis. Tribrachidium have a variable spatial distribution, implying that settlement or post-settlement conditions/preferences had an effect on populations. Rugoconites display aggregation, possibly related to their reproductive methods in combination with settlement location availability at the time of dispersal and/or settlement. Additionally, post-settlement environmental controls could have affected Rugoconites on other surfaces, resulting in lower populations and densities. Both Tribrachidium and Rugoconites also commonly occur as individuals or in low numbers on a number of beds, thus constraining possible reproductive strategies and environmental/substrate preferences. The distribution of Obamus is consistent with selective settlement, aggregating near conspecifics and on substrates of mature microbial mat. This dispersal process is the first example of substrate-selective dispersal among the Ediacara Biota, thus making Obamus similar to numerous modern sessile invertebrates with similar dispersal and settlement strategies. Resumen La distribución espacial de los organismos sésiles in situ, incluyendo los del registro fósil, brinda información sobre las historias de vida, tal como los posibles mecanismos de dispersión y/o asentamiento, y sobre cómo los taxones interactúan entre sí y entre sus entornos locales. En el Parque Nacional Nilpena Ediacara (NENP), Australia Meridional, la excelente preservación y excavación de 33 planos de lecho fosilífero del Miembro Ediacara de la Cuarcita Rawnsley revela comunidades in situ de la biota ediacárica. En este estudio analizamos las distribuciones espaciales de tres taxones relativamente comunes, Tribrachidium, Rugoconites y Obamus, que se encuentran en superficies excavadas mediante el análisis de patrones de puntos espaciales. Tribrachidium tiene una distribución espacial variable, lo que implica que las condiciones/preferencias durante o después del asentamiento tuvieron un efecto en las poblaciones. Rugoconites muestran agregación, posiblemente relacionado con sus métodos reproductivos en combinación con la disponibilidad de lugares de asentamiento en el momento de la dispersión y/o asentamiento. Además, los controles ambientales posteriormente al asentamiento podrían estar afectando a Rugoconites en otras superficies, lo que resultaría en poblaciones y densidades más bajas. Tanto Tribrachidium como Rugoconites ocurren como individuos en varios lechos, restringiendo las posibles estrategias reproductivas y las preferencias ambientales/de sustrato. La distribución de Obamus es consistente con un asentamiento selectivo, agregando cerca de sus congéneres y sobre sustratos de tapete microbiano maduro. Este proceso de dispersión es el primer ejemplo de dispersión selectiva de sustrato entre la biota ediacárica, lo que hace que Obamus sea similar a numerosos invertebrados sésiles modernos con estrategias similares de dispersión y asentamiento.

Phillip C. Boan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aircraft Design Implications for Urban Air Mobility Vehicles Performing Public Good Missions

NASA has previously designed and described set of concept aircraft to serve as reference vehicles for Urban Air Mobility (UAM), to encourage public discussion and research. These vehicles are used in this paper to quantify how suitable UAM aircraft might be for missions other than their primary commercial design missions. A set of representative public good missions are described, along with design requirements and equipage. For two of these missions, the additional weight, power, and cost to facilitate a basic vehicle which may be built or configured with the ability to perform these missions is quantified. Special layout and other considerations which may impact vehicle design are described. For aircraft designed to the NASA UAM reference mission, the addition of some meaningful public good missions causes less than 10% growth in weight and power for fossil-fueled aircraft; advanced batteryelectric powered aircraft grow by a significantly larger amount and may only be possible with relaxed requirements. Meaningful public good missions with UAM vehicles are feasible, provided that public good mission requirements are considered and incorporated in the conceptual design stage of development.

Aircraft↗
NASA NTRS2024

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Biodiversity↗
NASA NTRS2024

Additional Aviation Sustainability Strategies

Emissions from the aviation sector are expected to grow significantly in the next few decades due to growing demand for aviation. The U.S. fleet size has increased significantly in the past 20 years, growing from 2,132 aircraft to 5,485 aircraft. Similarly from 1990 to 2019, aviation emissions more than doubled, growing faster than any other transportation mode. These emissions include carbon dioxide (CO2), as well as non-CO2 sources including nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), water (H2O), and particulate matter (soot). However, this report focuses specifically on CO2 emissions because the impacts from CO2 are well-understood and long-lived. There are also many climate goals tied to CO2 emissions, including the US Aviation Climate Action Plan which is pushing for net-zero in 2050. CO2 is a greenhouse, or heat-trapping, gas that comes from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels, from wildfires, and natural processes like volcanoes. Greenhouse gases absorb heat radiating from the Earth’s surface and release it in all directions, including back toward Earth’s surface. By adding more CO2 to the atmosphere, humans amplify the natural greenhouse effect, causing global temperature to rise. Since the onset of industrial times in 1750, human activities have raised atmospheric CO2 by 50%. Considering this challenge, the United States has set a climate goal to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions in the U.S. aviation sector by 2050 to reduce the environmental impact of aviation. Net-zero emissions refers to the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CO2, methane or SO2, that are removed from the atmosphere being equal to those emitted by human activity. This contrasts with carbon-neutrality, which refers to no net release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, especially through offsetting emissions, that could be accomplished through a series of actions. As of 2022, the goal of net-zero has been adopted by much of the aviation industry including multiple airlines and countries. To reach net-zero by 2050, sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are identified as the technology that could provide the greatest impact within this timeframe. However, certain challenges may limit the production and/or adoption of SAFs in the marketplace, such as competition for feedstocks, production capacity, and high cost. In this case, SAFs would be insufficient to meet the net-zero CO2 emission goals. Therefore, in addition to SAFs, other strategies will be needed to close the gap on emissions produced as a result of SAF shortfalls or to enhance the impact of SAFs on reducing emissions. NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) aims to examine these additional pathways to explore how its research may best contribute to the realization of net-zero emissions by 2050. Specifically, this effort considers strategies that can reduce emissions in the aviation sector in combination with the use of SAFs and carbon offsets while still meeting projected passenger demand. The strategies considered are not only feasible but also could be operationally scalable by 2050. The goal of this report is to investigate additional strategies such as alternative flight and ground operations, providing insight into the CO2 emission reduction potential and feasibility of strategy implementation by 2050.

Carbon Emissions↗