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A case study of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm of July 11, 1978. I - Analysis of the data base

The data obtained at the time of the Thunderstorm Research International Project storm at the Kennedy Space Center on July 11, 1978 are analyzed in a model-independent manner. The data base included data from three Doppler radars, a lightning detection and ranging system and a network of 25 electric field mills, and rain gages. Electric field measurements were used to analyze the charge moments transferred by lightning flashes, and the data were fitted to Weibull distributions; these were used to estimate statistical parameters of the lightning for both intracloud and cloud-to-ground flashes and to estimate the fraction of the flashes which were below the observation threshold. The displacement and the conduction current densities were calculated from electric field measurements between flashes. These values were used to derive the magnitudes and the locations of dipole and monopole generators by least squares fitting the measured Maxwell current densities to the displacement-dominated equations.

Nisbet, John S.↗

Observations of optical counterparts of Gamma-Ray bursts

This is a final report for a contract begun in Dec. 1987 and ended in Mar. 1989 to use the existing Lincoln Laboratory Experimental Test Site in Socorro, NM to search for optical counterparts to gamma-ray bursts. The objective was to develop an autonomous staring system to search for stationary, transient optical flashes. The search was to use an existing 31-inch telescope equipped with a sensitive video detector. The approach for the search was to develop real-time processing software to monitor the video signal from the detector and to record any transient, point-like flashes that occurred in the field of view. The system would have been able to detect fainter flashes (B is approximately 15(sup m) in 1/30 s, delta(m(sub v)) = 0.25(sup m)) than other systems but lacked a large field of view (only 1.2 deg diameter) necessary to give a high probability of detecting a random flash on the sky. As such, the plan was to monitor known gamma-ray burst error boxes and wait for a repetition of an earlier event. The high payoff of good sensitivity with high angular resolution (1 pixel = 10sec) and good time resolution (30 s) to allow post-burst searches warranted funding if the cost was not prohibitive. The contract began in the middle of the three-year cycle for High Energy Astrophysics Gamma-Ray Astronomy Research and Analysis Program. This final report briefly describes the portion of the plan completed under the original contract.

Knight, Frederick K.↗

Microsecond-scale electric field pulses in cloud lightning discharges

From wideband electric field records acquired using a 12-bit digitizing system with a 500-ns sampling interval, microsecond-scale pulses in different stages of cloud flashes in Florida and New Mexico are analyzed. Pulse occurrence statistics and waveshape characteristics are presented. The larger pulses tend to occur early in the flash, confirming the results of Bils et al. (1988) and in contrast with the three-stage representation of cloud-discharge electric fields suggested by Kitagawa and Brook (1960). Possible explanations for the discrepancy are discussed. The tendency for the larger pulses to occur early in the cloud flash suggests that they are related to the initial in-cloud channel formation processes and contradicts the common view found in the atmospheric radio-noise literature that the main sources of VLF/LF electromagnetic radiation in cloud flashes are the K processes which occur in the final, or J type, part of the cloud discharge.

Villanueva, Y.↗

Total Lightning and Radar Storm Characteristics Associated with Severe Storms in Central Florida

A number of prior studies have examined the association of lightning activity with the occurrence of severe weather and tornadoes, in particular. High flash rates are often observed in tornadic storms (Taylor, 1973; Johnson, 1980; Goodman and Knupp, 1993) but not always. Taylor found that 23% of nontornadic storms and 1% of non-severe storms had sferics rates comparable to the tornadic storms. MacGorman (1993) found that storms with mesocyclones produced more frequent intracloud (IC) lightning than cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning. MacGorman (1993) and others suggest that the lightning activity accompanying tomadic storms will be dominated by intracloud lightning-with an increase in intracloud and total flash rates as the updraft increases in depth, size, and velocity. In a recent study, Perez et al. (1998) found that CG flash rates alone are too variable to be a useful predictor of (F4, F5) tornado formation. Studies of non-tomadic storms have also shown that total lightning flash rates track the updraft, with rates increasing as the updraft intensities and decreasing rapidly with cessation of vertical growth or downburst onset (Goodman et al., 1988; Williams et al., 1989). Such relationships result from the development of mixed phase precipitation and increased hydrometer collisions that lead to the efficient separation of charge. Correlations between updraft strength and other variables such as cloud-top height, cloud water mass, and hail size have also been observed.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Optical Transient Detector (OTD) Observations of a Tornadic Thunderstorm

Total lightning observations made by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) of a tornadic thunderstorm that occurred over Oklahoma 17 April 1995 are presented. The average flash rate of the tornadic storm during the 3.2 min observation period was 45 flashes min.with a flash rate density of 1.16 x 10(exp -4)/s sq km. The total flash rate was almost 18 times higher than the cloud-to-ground rate measured by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). In addition. total lightning rates were observed to decrease prior To tornadic development.

Buechler, D. E.↗

Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Characteristics of a Major Tropical Cyclone Tornado Outbreak

A comprehensive analysis has been conducted of the cloud-to-ground lightning activity occurring within a landfalling tropical cyclone that produced an outbreak of strong and damaging tornadoes. Radar data indicate that 12 convective cells were responsible for 29 tornadoes, several of which received an F3 intensity rating, in the southeastern United States on 16 August 1994 within the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl. Of these 12 tornadic storms, the most active cell produced 315 flashes over a 5.5 hour period, while the other storms were less active. Three tornadic storms failed to produce any CG lightning at all. In general, the tornadic storms were more active electrically than other non-tornadic cells within Beryl's remnants, although the flash rates were rather modest by comparison with significant midlatitude severe storm events. Very few positive polarity flashes were found in the Beryl outbreak. During some of the stronger tornadoes, CG flash rates in the parent storms showed sharp transient decreases. Doppler radar data suggest the stronger tornadic storms were small supercells, and the lightning data indicate these storms exhibited lightning characteristics similar to those found in heavy-precipitation supercell storms.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approximately equals 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approximately equals 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels. The comparisons were made for the northern winter (Nov.-Feb.), the equinox (Mar., Apr., Sept., Oct.), the northern summer (May-Aug.), and the whole year.

Mackerras, David↗

Total Lightning as a Severe Weather Diagnostic in Strongly Baroclinic Systems in Central Florida

The establishment of a consistent behavior of total lightning activity in severe convective storms has been challenged historically by the relative scarcity of these storms combined with the difficulties inherent in documenting the (dominant) intracloud component of total lightning. This situation has changed recently with the abundance of severe weather in central Florida during 1997-98, including the tornado outbreak of February 23, 1998, and with the development of the operational LISDAD system (Boldi et al, this conference) to document these cases. This paper is concerned primarily with the behavior of total lightning in severe weather during the dry season when the Florida atmosphere is most strongly baroclinic. It has been found that all three manifestations of severe weather (ie., hall, wind, tornadoes) are consistently preceded by rapid increases in total flash rate with values often in excess of 100 flashes/minute. Preliminary analysis suggests that this systematic electrical behavior observed in summertime 'pulse severe' storms (Hodanish et al, this conference) also pertains to the more strongly baroclinic, long-track tornadic storms (more common in Oklahoma), as evidenced by the February 23, 1998 outbreak case in central Florida exhibiting two long-tracking F3 tornadoes. The largest flash rates in severe weather anywhere occur in baroclinic conditions at midlatitude. The physical plausibility of flash rates in excess of 100 per minute will be assessed. We will also consider the differences in storm structure for high flash rate storms that are non-severe.

Williams, E.↗

Land-Ocean Differences in LIS and OTD Tropical Lightning Observations

Significant differences are known to exist on a global scale between continental and oceanic total lightning regional flash rates, suggesting differences in the properties of convective storms in these regimes. Lightning properties observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) over land and ocean are compared, limited to analysis over the tropics in order to simplify physical interpretation. We find that the mean flash rates of individual storms over tropical land only exceed those over ocean by a factor of 2 (far less than the observed differences in regional flash rates). However, the average nearest neighbor distance of continental thunderstorms in half that over oceans. Cloud-top lightning optical radiance in oceanic storms is also twice as large as over land, suggesting either more energetic flashes over the oceans or less intervening cloud particles.

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗

Total Lightning Activity Associated with Tornadic Storms

Severe storms often have high flash rates (in excess of one flash per second) and are dominated by intracloud lightning activity. In addition to the extraordinary flash rates, there is a second distinguishing lightning characteristic of severe storms that seems to be important. When the total lightning history is examined, one finds sudden increases in the lightning rate, which we refer to as lightning "jumps," that precede the occurrence of severe weather by ten or more minutes. These jumps are typically 30-60 flashes/min, and are easily identified as anomalously large derivatives in the flash rate. This relationship is associated with updraft intensification and updraft strength is an important factor in storm severity (through the accumulation of condensate aloft and the stretching of vorticity). In several cases, evidence for diminishment of midlevel rotation and the descent of angular momentum from aloft is present prior to the appearance of the surface tornado. Based on our experience with severe and tornadic storms in Central Florida, we believe the total lightning may augment the more traditional use of NEXRAD radars and storm spotters. However, a more rigorous relation of these jumps to storm kinematics is needed if we are to apply total lightning in a decision tree that leads to improved warning lead times and decreased false alarm rates.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Simulation of the Universal-Time Diurnal Variation of the Global Electric Circuit Charging Rate

A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approx. = 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approx. = 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves in Universal time (UT) could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels.

Mackerras, D.↗

Land-Ocean Differences in LIS and OTD Tropical Lightning Observations

Significant differences are known to exist on a global scale between continental and oceanic total lightning regional flash rates, suggesting differences in the properties of convective storms in these regimes. Lightning properties observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) over land and ocean are compared, limited to analysis over the tropics in order to simplify physical interpretation. We find that the mean flash rates of individual storms over tropical land only exceed those over ocean by a factor of 2 (far less than the observed differences in regional flash rates). However, the average nearest neighbor distance of continental thunderstorms is half that over oceans. Cloud-top lightning optical radiance in oceanic storms is also twice as large as over land, suggesting either more energetic flashes over the oceans or less intervening cloud particles.

Boccippio, D. J.↗

The Characteristics of Total Lightning Activity in Severe Florida Thunderstorms

Severe thunderstorms are defined by specific exceedance criteria regarding either wind speed (greater than or equal to 50 kts), hailstone diameter (greater than or equal to 3/4 inch), the occurrence of a tornado, or any combination thereof. Although traditional radar signatures of severe thunderstorms have been well documented, the characteristics of associated total lightning activity (both intracloud and cloud-to-ground) of severe thunderstorms remain poorly established. The reason for this are (1) less than 1% of all storms are actually severe, (2) intracloud lightning, which is typically the dominant form of electrical discharge within thunderstorms, is not routinely measured or recorded, (3) direct visual observations of intracloud lightning are obscured during the daytime, and (4) the migratory nature of many severe thunderstorms can make the accurate detection and mapping of intracloud lightning difficult when using fixed-location sensors. The recent establishment of LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Acquisition and Display - discussed in Goodman et al, this Meeting) has substantially addressed these limitations in east central Florida (ECFL). Analysis of total lightning flash Count histories using the LDAR (Lightning Detection And Ranging) system for known severe thunderstorms (currently irrespective of seasonal aspects and severe storm-type) has revealed flash rates exceeding 1 per second. This appears to be a necessary, but not sufficient,condition for most ECFL severe storm cases. The differences in radar-observed storm structure for high flash rate storms (to include both severe and non-severe categories) will be described together with the timing of peak flash rate vs. the timing of the severe weather manifestation. Comparisons with the satellite-bases OTD (Optical Transient Detector) overhead passes will also be presented when possible.

Williams, E.↗

Monte Carlo Radiative Transfer Modeling of Lightning Observed in Galileo Images of Jupiter

We study lightning on Jupiter and the clouds illuminated by the lightning using images taken by the Galileo orbiter. The Galileo images have a resolution of 25 km/pixel and axe able to resolve the shape of the single lightning spots in the images, which have full widths at half the maximum intensity in the range of 90-160 km. We compare the measured lightning flash images with simulated images produced by our ED Monte Carlo light-scattering model. The model calculates Monte Carlo scattering of photons in a ED opacity distribution. During each scattering event, light is partially absorbed. The new direction of the photon after scattering is chosen according to a Henyey-Greenstein phase function. An image from each direction is produced by accumulating photons emerging from the cloud in a small range (bins) of emission angles. Lightning bolts are modeled either as points or vertical lines. Our results suggest that some of the observed scattering patterns axe produced in a 3-D cloud rather than in a plane-parallel cloud layer. Lightning is estimated to occur at least as deep as the bottom of the expected water cloud. For the six cases studied, we find that the clouds above the lightning are optically thick (tau > 5). Jovian flashes are more regular and circular than the largest terrestrial flashes observed from space. On Jupiter there is nothing equivalent to the 30-40-km horizontal flashes which axe seen on Earth.

Dyudine, U. A.↗

Doppler Radar and Lightning Network Observations of a Severe Outbreak of Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes

Data from a single WSR-88D Doppler radar and the National Lightning Detection Network are used to examine in detail the characteristics of the convective storms that produced a severe tornado outbreak within Tropical Storm Beryl's remnants on 16 August 1994. Comparison of the radar data with reports of tornadoes suggests that only 13 cells produced the 29 tornadoes that were documented in Georgia and the Carolinas on that date. Six of these cells spawned multiple tornadoes, and the radar data confirm the presence of miniature supercells. One of the cells was identifiable on radar for 11 hours, spawning tornadoes over a time period spanning approximately 6.5 hours. Several other tornadic cells also exhibited great longevity, with cell lifetimes greater than ever previously documented in a landfalling tropical cyclone tornado event, and comparable to those found in major midlatitude tornadic supercell outbreaks. Time-height analyses of the three strongest tornadic supercells are presented in order to document storm kinematic structure and to show how these storms appear at different ranges from a WSR-88D radar. In addition, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data are examined for the outbreak, the most intense tropical cyclone tornado event studied thus far. Although the tornadic cells were responsible for most of Beryl's CG lightning, flash rates were only weak to moderate, even in the most intense supercells, and in all the tornadic storms the lightning flashes were almost entirely negative in polarity. A few of the single-tornado storms produced no detectable CG lightning at all. In the stronger cells, there is some evidence that CG lightning rates decreased during tornadogenesis, as has been documented before in some midlatitude tornadic storms. A number of the storms spawned tornadoes just after producing their final CG lightning flashes. Surprisingly, both peak currents and positive flash percentages were larger in Beryl s nontornadic storms than in the tornadic ones. Despite some intriguing patterns, the CG lightning behavior in this outbreak remains mostly inconsistent and ambiguous, and offers only secondary value for warning guidance. The present findings argue in favor of the implementation of observing systems capable of continuous monitoring of total lightning activity in storms.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

Three Years of TRMM Precipitation Features: Radar, Radiometric, and Lightning Characteristics - Part 1

During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity, areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%, and remaining 97.6%. The set of 'weakest / smallest' features comprises 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate 0.7 fl/min. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl/min; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85-GHz) and 69 K (37- GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335,000 sq km and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10(exp 12) kg of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations, seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land / Ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and Ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms, and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

Influence of Compression and Shear on the Strength of Composite Laminates with Z-Pinned Reinforcement

The influence of compression and shear loads on the strength of composite laminates with z-pins is evaluated parametrically using a 2D Finite Element Code (FLASH). Meshes were generated for three unique combinations of z-pin diameter and density. A laminated plate theory analysis was performed on several layups to determine the bi-axial stresses in the zero degree plies. These stresses, in turn, were used to determine the magnitude of the relative load steps prescribed in the FLASH analyses. Results indicated that increasing pin density was more detrimental to in-plane compression strength than increasing pin diameter. FLASH results for lamina with z-pins were consistent with the closed form results, and FLASH results without z-pins, if the initial fiber waviness due to z-pin insertion was added to the fiber waviness in the material to yield a total misalignment. Addition of 10% shear to the compression loading significantly reduced the lamina strength compared to pure compression loading. Addition of 50% shear to the compression indicated shear yielding rather than kink band formation as the likely failure mode. Two different stiffener reinforced skin configurations with z-pins, one quasi-isotropic and one orthotropic, were also analyzed. Six unique loading cases ranging from pure compression to compression plus 50% shear were analyzed assuming material fiber waviness misalignment angles of 0, 1, and 2 degrees. Compression strength decreased with increased shear loading for both configurations, with the quasi-isotropic configuration yielding lower strengths than the orthotropic configuration.

O'Brien, T. Kevin↗

Influence of Compression and Shear on the Strength of Composite Laminates With Z-Pinned Reinforcement

The influence of compression and shear loads on the strength of composite laminates with z-pins is evaluated parametrically using a 2D Finite Element Code (FLASH) based on Cosserat couple stress theory. Meshes were generated for three unique combinations of z-pin diameter and density. A laminated plate theory analysis was performed on several layups to determine the bi-axial stresses in the zero degree plies. These stresses, in turn, were used to determine the magnitude of the relative load steps prescribed in the FLASH analyses. Results indicated that increasing pin density was more detrimental to in-plane compression strength than increasing pin diameter. Compression strengths of lamina without z-pins agreed well with a closed form expression derived by Budiansky and Fleck. FLASH results for lamina with z-pins were consistent with the closed form results, and FLASH results without z-pins, if the initial fiber waviness due to z-pin insertion was added to the fiber waviness in the material to yield a total misalignment. Addition of 10% shear to the compression loading significantly reduced the lamina strength compared to pure compression loading. Addition of 50% shear to the compression indicated shear yielding rather than kink band formation as the likely failure mode. Two different stiffener reinforced skin configurations with z-pins, one quasi-isotropic and one orthotropic, were also analyzed. Six unique loading cases ranging from pure compression to compression plus 50% shear were analyzed assuming material fiber waviness misalignment angles of 0, 1, and 2 degrees. Compression strength decreased with increased shear loading for both configurations, with the quasi-isotropic configuration yielding lower strengths than the orthotropic configuration.

OBrien, T. Kevin↗