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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Relevance Vector Machine Image Reconstruction Algorithm for Electrical Capacitance Tomography With Explicit Uncertainty Estimates

We present a Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) based algorithm for electrical capacitance tomography (ECT) applications that can concurrently provide image reconstruction results and uncertainty estimates about the reconstruction. To illustrate the RVM operation in ECT, we simulate typical ECT scenarios, making explicit the connection between the reconstructed pixel values and the corresponding uncertainty estimates in each case. We compare the RVM reconstruction performance with that of the Iterative Landweber Method (ILM) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) in all the considered scenarios. The results show that, in addition to the key advantage of providing uncertainty measures, RVM can achieve similar reconstruction results with either lower or similar computational complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power Grid Reliability Estimation via Adaptive Importance Sampling

Electricity production currently generates approximately 25% of greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. Thus, increasing the amount of renewable energy is a key step to carbon neutrality. However, integrating a large amount of fluctuating renewable generation is a significant challenge for power grid operating and planning. Grid reliability, i.e., an ability to meet operational constraints under power fluctuations, is probably the most important of them. In this letter, we propose computationally efficient and accurate methods to estimate the probability of line overflow, i.e., reliability constraints violation, under a known distribution of renewable energy generation. To this end, we investigate an importance sampling approach, a flexible extension of Monte-Carlo methods, which adaptively changes the sampling distribution to generate more samples near the reliability boundary. The approach allows to estimate overload probability in real-time based only on a few dozens of random samples, compared to thousands required by the plain Monte-Carlo. Our study focuses on high voltage direct current power transmission grids with linear reliability constraints on power injections and line currents. Herein, we propose a novel theoretically justified physics-informed adaptive importance sampling algorithm and compare its performance to state-of-the-art methods on multiple IEEE power grid test cases.

power system faults↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regional Inertia Estimation Using Actual Event Measurements: Florida Case

As inverter-based resources’ integration in power grids increases, their uneven distribution across the electrical network leads to the formation of local regions that are weakly coupled to the larger interconnection. This signifies the necessity of regional frequency dynamics investigation and analyzing various inertia metrics. This paper presents a practical methodology for estimating regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF) using actual event recordings, which is then used to evaluate regional inertia. Florida (FL) is selected as the region of interest due to its distinct regional frequency dynamics and the rising levels of solar generation. We identify and analyze confirmed events from 2017 to 2024 that occurred in FL. The results indicate that FL contributes about 14% to the total inertia of the US Eastern Interconnection, which approximately matches its share of generation capacity. Results also highlight seasonal fluctuations in energy generation, which play a significant role in influencing inertia and thus the RoCoF levels. This emphasizes the importance of estimating regional inertia to enhance grid operations for a future that focuses on distributed generation.

Dulal, Saurav [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Stochastic Framework for Estimating Load Profiles at EV Fast Charging Stations

This paper formulates a methodology for estimating the average daily load profiles of EV fast charging stations over a planning horizon of five to ten years. The developed methodology uses historic vehicle registration data, state-level EV adoption targets, seasonal driving patterns, local demographics, competition, and traffic volume information to predict average station usage. Through Monte Carlo simulations, an average daily load profile is obtained for each month in the planning horizon, and prediction uncertainty is quantified. The proposed framework will facilitate the accurate estimation of energy and demand costs incurred by the charging station over the planning period, thereby informing return-on-investment calculations.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of Participation Factors Using the Synchrosqueezed Wavelet Transform

This paper proposes a data-driven approach for estimating participation factors for a power system using only simulation results on selected disturbances. The approach is purely response-based and does not need a linearized system model for eigen-analysis, which makes it applicable to systems whose detailed, complete mathematical models are not available. Considering the unavoidable nonlinearity as exhibited in the transient period of a system response, the Synchrosqueezed Wavelet Transform is applied to simulated responses for modal analysis to obtain participation factors. Based on simulations of Kundur's two-area system using both the electromagnetic transient model and phasor model, the participation factors estimated by the proposed approach are compared with two other signal processing tools, the Prony analysis and continuous wavelet transform, and are also benchmarked with conventional model-based participation factors.

participation factor↗
DOE OSTI2022

PV Hosting Capacity Estimation: Experiences with Scalable Framework

Hosting capacity is an indication of the amount of solar photovoltaics (PV) that can be hosted in a distribution system without additional changes to infrastructure or oper-ations. This paper presents a framework for estimating the PV hosting capacity at scale. First, we analyze computational, modeling and other key challenges of performing relevant, large-scale simulations, provided along with the experiences and lessons learned. Then, we develop two open-source Python-based software tools to conduct repeatable distribution analyses: the Distribution Integration Solution Cost Options (DISCO) for configuring and analyzing simulations and the Job Automation and Deployment Engine (JADE) for parallelizing jobs on high-performance computing clusters. A case study of hosting capacity estimation for the SMART-DS San Francisco (SFO) 2000+ synthetic feeders, is used to demonstrate the capability of the developed DISCO+JADE framework and tools. The framework and tools can help utilities assess the overall hosting capacity of their service territory, which can help them better plan for the overall upgrade costs to integrate more PV in the future. The experiences are shared to aid the tool users and researchers to conduct relevant studies and research.

distributed energy resources↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Reproducible Validation of Algorithms for Estimating Array Tilt and Azimuth from Photovoltaic Power Time Series

In this research, we assess the viability of four different, publicly available algorithms for estimating the azimuth and tilt parameters of solar photovoltaic systems using only the associated AC power time series data and site latitude-longitude coordinates. In this work, we curated a benchmarking data set of 44 fixed-tilt systems, comprising 275 measured AC power inverter data streams, with known azimuth and tilt parameters. Additionally, we isolated test cases in the data set with real- world issues, including shading and clipping, to determine how algorithm performance varies based on the presence of these phenomena. Using this data set for benchmarking, we evaluated the estimated vs. actual system characteristics for each algorithm, as well as the associated algorithm execution time using a standardized benchmarking process. The two highest performing algorithms were the Solar Data Tools and the PVWatts 5- based methods, which both achieved a median absolute error of approximately 5 and 1 degrees for azimuth and tilt, respectively. During run time analysis, the SDT method was approximately 5 times faster than the PVWatts 5-based method, with the median execution time for a stream varying between 6 and 8 seconds vs. a median run time of 31 seconds for the PVWatts 5-based method.

azimuth↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Critical Customer Outages Resulting from Extreme Hurricanes

US power outage data has been collected by organizations such as Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) through Environment for Analysis Geo-Located Energy Infrastructure (EAGLE-I: freely available) and poweroutage.us (commercial data: available to purchase). However, these sources do not provide information specific to outages of critical customers. Critical customers include entities, facilities, and individuals whose continuous access to electricity is essential for public safety, emergency response, disaster recovery, the well-being of vulnerable populations, public safety and order, and public utilities such as natural gas, communications, water and sanitation. Identification and geolocation of critical customers is crucial for understanding and addressing the effects of power outages on essential services and ensuring that necessary measures are taken to maintain their operations during power disruptions. This work is a first step towards estimating the occurrences of critical customer outages and developing a critical customer power outage data repository. This work estimates outage incidents of critical customers through spatiotemporal mapping of power outage data, weather data, building data, and critical infrastructure network data. Our results show that critical customer effects vary across different counties. We provide appropriate mathematical explanations and simplifications to define and systematize the proposed approach.

Bhusal, Narayan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000222752145)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explainable AI for a No-Teardown Vehicle Component Cost Estimation: A Top-Down Approach

The broader ambition of this article is to popularize an approach for the fair distribution of the quantity of a system's output to its subsystems while allowing for underlying complex subsystem level interactions. Particularly, we present the use of this framework on a very specific (but generalizable) application, interesting for a more general AI audience. Here, we detail a data-driven approach to vehicle price modeling and its component price estimation by leveraging a combination of concepts from machine learning and game theory. We show an alternative to common teardown methodologies and surveying approaches for component and vehicle price estimation at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) level that has the advantage of bypassing uncertainties involved in gathering teardown data, the need to perform expensive and biased surveying, and the need to perform retail price equivalent or indirect cost multiplier adjustments to mark up direct manufacturing costs to MSRP. This novel exercise not only provides accurate pricing of the technologies at the customer level, but also shows the, a priori known, large gaps in pricing strategies between manufacturers, vehicle classes, market segments, etc. There is also clear interaction between the price of technologies and other specifications present in vehicles. Those results are indication that old methods of manufacturer-level component costing, aggregation, and application of flat and rigid adjustment factors should be carefully examined. The findings are based on a database developed by Argonne, which includes over 64,000 vehicles covering MY1990 to MY2020 with hundreds of vehicle specs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Radiological Source Term Estimation for Multiple Sources in Cluttered Environments

A particle filter algorithm is presented to estimate the position, strength, and cardinality of an unknown number of radioactive point sources in an obstacle-rich environment using count measurements. The algorithm addresses gaps in the prior literature by incorporating two novel elements. The first is a precomputation step in which local terrain and obstacle data is processed to compute attenuation kernels throughout the search area. This enables rapid estimation performance in obstacle-rich environments as measurements are gathered. The second novel feature is a dynamic particle allocation technique in which the number of particles is adjusted in real time to meet convergence goals. This feature allows the algorithm to scale more efficiently to scenarios with a larger number of sources. Furthermore, a series of computational experiments using simulated data demonstrates the algorithm’s performance in a cluttered environment with up to eight sources.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meta-Learning Enhanced Physics-Informed Graph Attention Convolutional Network for Distribution Power System State Estimation

Promptly perceiving distribution system states is challenged by frequent topology changes and uncertain power injections. To address these issues, a Meta-learning enhanced physics-informed graph attention convolutional network (Meta-PIGACN) model is proposed to handle topological variability in distribution system state estimation (DSSE). Specifically, physics information is integrated into the graph convolutional network, enabling a physics-informed edge-weighting process that incorporates physical information to control the aggregation of neighboring nodes. Besides, the graph attention mechanism automatically adjusts the importance of different neighboring nodes, allowing the capture and preservation of inherent system features across varying topologies, thereby improving state estimation accuracy. Furthermore, meta-learning is proposed to acquire empirical knowledge across multiple topologies so that the model can rapidly adapt to new configurations through iterative gradient descent updates even in large-scale systems. In conclusion, the simulation results based on the 33/118/1746-node distribution systems show the high accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Capacitor Voltage Ripple Estimation and Optimal Sizing of Modular Multi-Level Converters for Variable-Speed Drives

This article deals with the sizing of submodule capacitors for modular multilevel converters (MMCs) used for variable speed drives for medium voltage and high voltage electric machines. Variable speed drives are required to run over a wide frequency range from zero to a few hundred Hz or even over 1 kHz. Under low frequency operation (<30 Hz), a large current ripple flowing through the MMC submodule capacitors will cause significant capacitor voltage fluctuation. This article proposes an optimal submodule capacitor selection method based on the common-mode voltage injection. The proposed sizing model includes two functions: 1) accurately estimating the capacitor voltage ripple based on the drive system parameters; and 2) identifying the minimum capacitance of the submodule capacitors based on the allowed maximum capacitor voltage fluctuations. Simulation and experimental results show that the error between the actual and estimated values of the voltage fluctuation is within 3% using the proposed model.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aggregated DER_A Model Parameterization via Online Moving Horizon Estimation

Here, this paper introduces a methodology for parameterizing the DER_A model using a novel smooth mathematical representation, simplifying the process and preserving accuracy in modeling inverter-based generator (IBG). The methodology employs an online parameterization process that can operate in real-time. The model parameterization process is structured into five sequential steps, each targeting a specific aspect of the DER_A model through moving horizon estimation. This approach adapts to systems with varying voltage and frequency support requirements by selectively applying each step. Simulation results on systems with both known and unknown parameters validate the methodology’s effectiveness. The online moving horizon estimation technique accurately captures the dynamics of the overall system and ensures that the parameterized DER_A model closely mirrors the real system’s voltage, current, and power dynamics. The findings highlight the potential of this methodology to substantially improve and simplify the dynamic modeling of power systems, paving the way for more reliable and robust IBG and grid integration.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Generalized Stress Inversion Approach With Application to Residual Stress Estimation

In this work develop a generalized stress inversion technique (or the generalized inversion method) capable of recovering stresses in linear elastic bodies subjected to arbitrary cuts. Specifically, given a set of displacement measurements found experimentally from digital image correlation (DIC), we formulate a stress estimation inverse problem as a partial differential equation-constrained optimization problem. We use gradient-based optimization methods, and we accordingly derive the necessary gradient and Hessian information in a matrix-free form to allow for parallel, large-scale operations. By using a combination of finite elements, DIC, and a matrix-free optimization framework, the generalized inversion method can be used on any arbitrary geometry, provided that the DIC camera can view a sufficient part of the surface. We present numerical simulations and experiments, and we demonstrate that the generalized inversion method can be applied to estimate residual stress.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detailed Design and Cost Estimation of a 300 MWe Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Turbine

The detailed design of a 300 MWe, utility scale oxy-fuel turbine has been completed for purposed operation in the sCO2 direct fired Allam-Fetvedt cycle, targeting near-zero emissions and a 50% LHV system efficiency. The turbine and its supporting plant aim to offer a lower levelized cost of energy than a natural gas combined cycle plant employing carbon capture. The oxy-fuel turbine conditions include an inlet temperature of 1150°C and inlet pressure of 305 bar, representing temperatures near that of a gas turbine simultaneously with pressures near an ultra-supercritical steam turbine. The combustor housing and turbine designs were completed according to the ASME BPVC; the turbine case specifically incorporates a multi-body design with inner high-pressure barrel case and low-pressure (30 bar) horizontally split outer case of low-chromium steel material. Lateral rotordynamic evaluation demonstrated acceptable vibration response for a range of imbalance conditions per API standards. The cooling flow required in the six-stage turbine flowpath for 30,000 hr. blade and stator lifetime is predicted through thermal and structural modeling of the first stage. The provided cost estimate of the turbine is formed through a combination of scaled up-costs from procured 10 MWe scale sCO2 turbomachinery hardware, and vendor provided budgetary quotes of larger components including the turbine case requiring casting, welding, and final machining processes. The performance and cost estimation of the oxy-fuel turbine predicted for the completed detailed design provides important information towards future development needs for market penetration of utility scale direct fired sCO2 power cycles.

Marshall, Michael [Southwest Research Institute, S↗
DOE OSTI2022

AN ESTIMATE OF SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL MECHANICAL LOADS IN THE GENERAL 30 CM PACKAGE DROP SCENARIO

The US Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is performing research to determine the mechanical loading conditions applied to spent nuclear fuel (SNF) during normal conditions of transport to inform mechanical tests of SNF and close an important knowledge gap related to the practical disposition of SNF in the US. Researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) have completed an extensive finite element study to characterize and estimate the potential mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical 30 cm drop of an SNF transportation package. This modeling study is validated with test data collected by the SFWST program during a physical test campaign that included one-third scale package drop tests and full-scale single fuel assembly drop tests. The test campaign was led by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and included international collaboration with Equipos Nucleares S.A, S.M.E (ENSA) and Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM). The key contribution of the modeling study is to go beyond the limitations of the limited number of physical tests to estimate the impact response to variations in impact angle, initial gap conditions, fuel assembly design, burnup and other parameters that affect the mechanical loads. The methodology of this study included a classic parametric study to calculate the impact response of highly detailed fuel assemblies over many combinations of parameters. Models of a 17x17 pressurized water reactor fuel assembly and a generic 10x10 boiling water reactor fuel assembly were both used in this study to cover the major fuel assembly types in the US inventory. Over 2,000 impact responses were calculated. The results of the parametric study were evaluated using traditional methods and basic statistics. The results were also used to construct a damage model using multiple nonlinear regression techniques to predict the mechanical loads over the full range of all input parameters. The damage model was found to work very well for all impact angle cases where the cask came to rest on its side. It was concluded that end drop cases where the cask remained vertical (instead of tipping over onto its side) were not sufficiently characterized by the current set of parametric study cases to include in the damage model, but it was not a priority to fully investigate that range because the highest mechanical loads were observed in the broader range of side impact cases. This modeling work provides sufficient insight into the mechanical loads on SNF during a hypothetical 30 cm package drop that, when considered along with the physical test data collected by the SNL-led team, the SFSWT program can consider the knowledge gap closed.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vibrational processing of a dynamic structural flight system: A multichannel spectral estimation approach

Dynamic testing of large flight vehicles (rockets) is not only complex, but also can be very costly. These flights are infrequent and can lead to disastrous effects if something were to fail during the flight. The development of sensors coupled to internal components offers a great challenge in reducing their size, yet still maintaining their precision. Sounding rockets provide both a viable and convenient alternative to the more costly vehicular flights. Some of the major objectives are to test various types of sensors for monitoring components of high interest as well as investigating real-time processing techniques. Signal processing presents an extreme challenge in this noisy multichannel environment. The estimation and tracking of modal frequencies from vibrating structures is an important set of features that can provide information about the components under test; therefore, high resolution multichannel spectral processing is required. Finally, the application of both single channel and multichannel techniques capable of producing reliable modal frequency estimates of a vibrating structure from uncertain accelerometer measurements is discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗