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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for engineering design and health prognostics: A tutorial

On top of machine learning (ML) models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and reliability improvement of ML models empowered by UQ has the potential to significantly facilitate the broad adoption of ML solutions in high-stakes decision settings, such as healthcare, manufacturing, and aviation, to name a few. In this tutorial, we aim to provide a holistic lens on emerging UQ methods for ML models with a particular focus on neural networks and the applications of these UQ methods in tackling engineering design as well as prognostics and health management problems. Towards this goal, we start with a comprehensive classification of uncertainty types, sources, and causes pertaining to UQ of ML models. Next, we provide a tutorial-style description of several state-of-the-art UQ methods: Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural network, neural network ensemble, and deterministic UQ methods focusing on spectral-normalized neural Gaussian process. Established upon the mathematical formulations, we subsequently examine the soundness of these UQ methods quantitatively and qualitatively (by a toy regression example) to examine their strengths and shortcomings from different dimensions. Then, we review quantitative metrics commonly used to assess the quality of predictive uncertainty in classification and regression problems. Afterward, we discuss the increasingly important role of UQ of ML models in solving challenging problems in engineering design and health prognostics. In conclusion, two case studies with source codes available on GitHub are used to demonstrate these UQ methods and compare their performance in the life prediction of lithium-ion batteries at the early stage (case study 1) and the remaining useful life prediction of turbofan engines (case study 2).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Latent Pitfalls in Microstructure-Based Modeling for Thermally Aged 9Cr-1Mo-V Steel (Grade 91)

A case study was conducted on a mechanistic model development that predicted tensile strength deterioration with thermal aging of 9Cr-1Mo-V steel in supporting the 60-year design life expected for advanced nuclear reactors. For property prediction beyond practical testing times, mechanistic modeling is highly desired, as it taps into the physics of structure–property relationships and therefore can generate reliable results for extrapolation. Meanwhile, as mechanistic models are often complicated, reflecting the intricacy of microstructure and strengthening mechanisms, pitfalls that are difficult to detect often exist. Here, this paper discusses latent pitfalls that are common in mechanistic modeling or specific in this 9Cr-1Mo-V case development through using the American Society of Mechanical Engineers verification and validation in computational solid mechanics (ASME V&V 10) standard for evaluating credibility of modeling in materials engineering. Suggestions are also made for enhancing reliability of microstructure-based modeling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

DRDMannTurb: A Python package for scalable, data-driven synthetic turbulence

Synthetic turbulence models (STMs) are used in wind engineering to generate realistic flow fields and are employed as inputs to industrial wind simulations. Examples include prescribing inlet conditions in large eddy simulations that model loads on wind turbines and tall buildings. We are interested in STMs capable of generating fluctuations based on prescribed second-moment statistics since such models can simulate environmental conditions that closely resemble on-site observations. To this end, the widely used Mann model (see Mann, 1994, 1998) is the inspiration for DRDMannTurb. The Mann model is described by three physical parameters: a magnitude parameter influencing the global variance of the wind field and corresponding to the Kolmogorov constant multiplied by the rate of viscous dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy to the two-thirds, αϵ 2/3 , a turbulence length scale parameter L, and a nondimensional parameter Γ related to the lifetime of the eddies. A number of studies, as well as international standards (e.g., those by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)), include recommended values for these three parameters with the goal of standardizing wind simulations according to observed energy spectra. Yet, having only three parameters, the Mann model faces limitations in accurately representing the diversity of observable spectra. This Python package enables users to extend the Mann model and more accurately fit field measurements through flexible neural network models of the eddy lifetime function. Following Keith et al. (2021), we refer to this class of models as Deep Rapid Distortion (DRD) models. DRDMannTurb also includes a general module implementing an efficient method for synthetic turbulence generation based on a domain decomposition technique. This technique is also described in Keith et al. (2021).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling hydrodynamic and biomass pyrolysis effects of recycled product gases in a bubbling fluidized bed reactor

Fast pyrolysis of biomass in a fluidized bed reactor is typically conducted in a nitrogen gas environment. Recycling product gas can improve the economics of operating such a system by reducing reliance on pure process streams, but much less is known about how recycling pyrolysis product gas may affect fluidization behavior and pyrolysis kinetics. Therefore, gas effects in a fluidized bed biomass pyrolysis reactor were investigated using engineering correlations, low-order models, and CFD simulations for N 2 , H 2 , CO, CO 2 , and CH 4 carrier gas mixtures. Here, our findings reveal viscosity of a gas mixture can be significantly underestimated depending on the model and correlation. Furthermore, fluidization characteristics such as U mf and gas-solid convective heat transfer can be greatly affected by the gas properties. By utilizing H 2 as the fluidizing gas (instead of N 2 ), while maintaining a constant fluidization ratio (U s /U mf ), the bio-oil yields can be increased ~5%. This is due to the lower density H 2 producing similar hydrodynamics as N 2 at higher gas flow rates. These higher flow rates result in shorter gas residence times, and as a result, less secondary reactions that convert bio-oil to light gases and char. Model results also suggest that bio-oil yield is not significantly affected by the type of carrier gas used, with bio-oil yield varying by ~2% across different gas mixtures while maintaining constant flow rate. In conclusion, this indicates that recycled pyrolytic gas can be used as the carrier gas for biomass pyrolysis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Theoretical Analysis and Experimental Validation of Flying-Capacitor Multilevel Converters Under Short-Circuit Fault Conditions

Addressing the increasing demand for high- efficiency and high-power-density converters, the flying-capacitor multilevel converter has shown itself as a promising topology. A key advantage of this topology is the reduced voltage rating of the switches, though also makes it vulnerable to device failure during short-circuit conditions. Despite large interest in fault-tolerant operation of these converters, alongside detailed descriptions of flying capacitor balancing, little research has focused on the converter short-circuit fault analysis, which may cause a switch failure if not properly designed for. Therefore, this work presents a comprehensive model describing the large- signal short-circuit switching behavior of a general N -level flying- capacitor multilevel converter. Highly simplified models used to predict the evolution of the switch current and voltage stress during the fault are proposed, targeted at practicing engineers for conservative design guidelines. These models are used to determine the critical time for remedial action of the converter before reaching some predefined maximum conditions. A 2-to-10- level fully-configurable flying-capacitor multilevel converter and a fault circuit hardware prototype are used to experimentally perform different short-circuit tests that show a good match to the measured behavior.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupling of CTF and RELAP5-3D Within an Enhanced Fidelity Nuclear Power Plant Simulator

A robust and accurate multiphysics engineering simulator is being developed to model the core behavior and system response of pressurized water reactors. This simulator relies on the NESTLE and CTF computer codes to model the neutronics and thermal hydraulics (TH), respectively, inside the core on a nodal scale and on the Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program—Three Dimensional (RELAP5-3D) to model the entire nuclear steam supply system. The RELAP5-3D model includes highly detailed nodalization and multidimensional flow modeling throughout the vessel. Previously, pin-resolved data generated via the Virtual Environment for Reactor Analysis core simulator were used to improve the accuracy of the NESTLE core predictions. The engineering simulator being developed as part of this work uses the 3KEYMASTER platform to couple the enhanced NESTLE model to a nodal-fidelity CTF model to balance run time with accuracy; NESTLE provides node-dependent powers to CTF, and CTF provides node-dependent coolant densities and fuel temperatures to NESTLE.An overlapping domain approach is used for the core TH in which RELAP5-3D provides core boundary conditions based on the system response and CTF provides a node-dependent coolant heating rate to the RELAP5-3D core solution. In the preliminary TH demonstration discussed in this paper, CTF and RELAP5-3D provided similar steady-state core predictions, indicating the hydraulic compatibility between the codes, as well as reasonable and expected behavior under hypothetical transient conditions. This provides an initial step in ongoing efforts toward a robust, multiscale TH/neutronics engineering simulator capability.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rapid Annotation of Photosynthetic Systems (RAPS): automated algorithm to generate genome-scale metabolic networks from algal genomes

Algae have mounting potential to serve as platform strains for engineering efforts, but tools for these species lag behind traditional model systems like E. coli and yeast. Metabolic models are one such tool that would enhance our ability to rationally engineer algae but current automated algorithms to build models do not perform well for algal genomes. We introduce a novel software pipeline, Rapid Annotation of Photosynthetic Systems (RAPS), which leverages manual curation efforts of published models to create high quality first draft metabolic networks for new species. We compared models produced by our pipeline to published models and found that these models are able to capture more genes than the published models and are more predictive of experimentally determined growth rate. We used RAPS to automate the creation of 8 first draft metabolic models of new species to enable the further study of metabolism in these species.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed regularization and structure preservation for learning stable reduced models from data with operator inference

Operator inference learns low-dimensional dynamical-system models with polynomial nonlinear terms from trajectories of high-dimensional physical systems (non-intrusive model reduction). Here, this work focuses on the large class of physical systems that can be well described by models with quadratic and cubic nonlinear terms and proposes a regularizer for operator inference that induces a stability bias onto learned models. The proposed regularizer is physics informed in the sense that it penalizes higher-order terms with large norms and so explicitly leverages the polynomial model form that is given by the underlying physics. This means that the proposed approach judiciously learns from data and physical insights combined, rather than from either data or physics alone. Additionally, a formulation of operator inference is proposed that enforces model constraints for preserving structure such as symmetry and definiteness in linear terms. Numerical results demonstrate that models learned with operator inference and the proposed regularizer and structure preservation are accurate and stable even in cases where using no regularization and Tikhonov regularization leads to models that are unstable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-output multilevel best linear unbiased estimators via semidefinite programming

Multifidelity forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems often involve multiple quantities of interest and heterogeneous models (e.g., different grids, equations, dimensions, physics, surrogate and reduced-order models). While computational efficiency is key in this context, multi-output strategies in multilevel/multifidelity methods are either sub-optimal or non-existent. In this paper we extend multilevel best linear unbiased estimators (MLBLUE) to multi-output forward UQ problems and we present new semidefinite programming formulations for their optimal setup. Not only do these formulations yield the optimal number of samples required, but also the optimal selection of low-fidelity models to use. While existing MLBLUE approaches are single-output only and require a non-trivial nonlinear optimization procedure, the new multi-output formulations can be solved reliably and efficiently. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of the new methods and formulations in practical UQ problems with model heterogeneity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting biomass comminution: Physical experiment, population balance model, and deep learning

An extended population balance model (PBM) and a deep learning-based enhanced deep neural operator (DNO+) model are introduced for predicting particle size distribution (PSD) of comminuted biomass through a large knife mill. Experimental tests using corn stalks with varied moisture contents, mill blade speeds, and discharge screen sizes are conducted to support model development. A novel mechanism in the extended PBM allows for including additional input parameters such as moisture content, which is not possible in the original PBM. The DNO+ model can include influencing factors of different data types such as moisture content and discharge screen size, which significantly extends the engineering applicability of the standard DNO model that only admits feed PSD and outcome PSD. Test results show that both models are remarkably accurate in the calibration or training parameter space and can be used as surrogate models to provide effective guidance for biomass preprocessing design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical methods for nonlocal and fractional models

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are used, with huge success, to model phenomena arising across all scientific and engineering disciplines. However, across an equally wide swath, there exist situations in which PDE models fail to adequately model observed phenomena or are not the best available model for that purpose. On the other hand, in many situations, nonlocal models that account for interaction occurring at a distance have been shown to more faithfully and effectively model observed phenomena that involve possible singularities and other anomalies. In this article, we consider a generic nonlocal model, beginning with a short review of its definition, the properties of its solution, its mathematical analysis, and specific concrete examples. We then provide extensive discussions about numerical methods, including finite element, finite difference, and spectral methods, for determining approximate solutions of the nonlocal models considered. In that discussion, we pay particular attention to a special class of nonlocal models that are the most widely studied in the literature, namely those involving fractional derivatives. The article ends with brief considerations of several modeling and algorithmic extensions which serve to show the wide applicability of nonlocal modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of Saturated Zone Three-Dimensional Initial Condition Plumes for the Composite Analysis and Cumulative Impacts Evaluation Modeling

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document and present the methodology, input data, and results of extending two-dimensional (2-D) plume depictions documented in DOE/RL- 2017-66, Hanford Site Groundwater Monitoring for 2017, into three dimensions (3-D) for select contaminants of interest (COIs) in the 200-BP-5, 200-UP-1, 200-ZP-1, and 200-PO-1 Groundwater Operable Units at the Hanford Site. Plumes with sufficient available vertical profile data were interpolated in 3-D using the Leapfrog Geo®1 geologic modeling platform, which includes an interpolation engine for analyzing and visualizing 3-D data. Results of these interpolations are intended for use in developing inputs for transport modeling to support forecasts of Central Plateau contaminant plume fate and transport.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advances in the Co-Simulation of Detailed Electrical and Whole-Building Energy Performance

This article describes recent co-simulation advances for the simultaneous modeling of detailed building electrical distribution systems and whole-building energy performance. The co-simulation architecture combines the EnergyPlus® engine for whole-building energy modeling with a new Modelica library for building an electrical distribution system model that is based on harmonic power flow. This new library allows for a higher-fidelity modeling of electrical power flows and losses within buildings than is available with current building electrical modeling software. We demonstrate the feasibility of the architecture by modeling a simple, two-zone thermal chamber with internal power electronics converters and resistive loads, and we validate the model using experimental data. The proposed co-simulation capability significantly expands the capabilities of building electrical distribution system models in the context of whole-building energy modeling, thus enabling more complex analyses than would have been possible with individual building performance simulation tools that are used to date.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Choosing the Best Modeling Platform for Radiological Risk Assessment Models - 20468

Radiological risk assessments, in the form of performance or safety assessments, are often required under regulations or guidance for remediation of contaminated land, decommissioning of contaminated buildings or structures, and radioactive waste disposal. These risk assessments are usually supported by fate and transport models that address decay and ingrowth of radionuclides, as well as their movement through engineered systems and the natural environment. These models are often projected thousands, or more, years into the future, largely because the radioactive species change through decay and ingrowth, and hence the magnitude of the radioactive effect changes with time. There are many computer codes that are available to address this type of modeling. They range from addressing specific pathways or processes such as infiltration of water, groundwater, surface water, air, biota, diffusion and advection of water and gases, to those that try to couple all processes together to evaluate the impact of fate and transport through the entire system to places in space and time to which access is assumed. These different types of codes are sometimes separated with the monikers process-level and systems-level codes, although it is often not clear that this separation does justice to the capabilities of the many codes that are available to evaluate fate and transport of radionuclides. The focus of this paper is the latter group of modeling codes. Several systems level modeling codes exist and are used. There are differences between these codes in terms of utility, flexibility, complexity and cost. The purpose of this paper is to compare a few of these codes in the context of work currently being performed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Modeling and Data for Radiological Impact Assessments (MODARIA) II Working Group 1 (WG1). The MODARIA II WG1's main focus is how stakeholder engaged decision analysis can, or should, be applied to radiological contamination problems so that better, longstanding, sustainable, solutions are reached. However, the WG1 also recognizes the potential impact of the modeling tools that are chosen to address radiological risk, which is often a primary objective of decision making for radiological problems. Other objectives might also be important, such as constraining costs, obtaining financing, minimizing impact on ecosystems, saving cultural resources, saving jobs, farmland, environmental justice, etc., in a full decision analysis for a given radiological contamination problem, but none of these other objectives have the same types of complex modeling needs as minimize radiological dose. Consequently, a further focus of WG1 is to evaluate the potential impacts on decision making of the choice of fate and transport, and risk assessment, modeling codes that are used to support decision making. The WG1 will produce a report at the end of 2020 that will focus on an approach to effective decision making and stakeholder engagement. The report will also consider the role that performance assessment modeling should play in the decision-making process, including the impact of the choice of modeling tools or computer codes on risk-informed decision making. Several sites around the World have been made available by Member States for these model comparisons, and several modeling tools have been considered. However, the focus of this paper is on two of the sites, one in Belgium and one in Ukraine, and on three of the tools: NORMALYSA (NORM And Legacy Site Assessment); GoldSim{sup C}, and AMBER{sup C}. The final report from this working group will also cover other modeling tools, including RESRAD, and PC-Cream{sup R}. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of multi-fidelity models

Multi-fidelity models provide a framework for integrating computational models of varying complexity, allowing for accurate predictions while optimizing computational resources. These models are especially beneficial when acquiring high-accuracy data is costly or computationally intensive. This review offers a comprehensive analysis of multi-fidelity models, focusing on their applications in scientific and engineering fields, particularly in optimization and uncertainty quantification. It classifies publications on multi-fidelity modeling according to several criteria, including application area, surrogate model selection, types of fidelity, combination methods and year of publication. The study investigates techniques for combining different fidelity levels, with an emphasis on multi-fidelity surrogate models. Here this work discusses reproducibility, open-sourcing methodologies and benchmarking procedures to promote transparency. The manuscript also includes educational toy problems to enhance understanding. Additionally, this paper outlines best practices for presenting multi-fidelity-related savings in a standardized, succinct and yet thorough manner. The review concludes by examining current trends in multi-fidelity modeling, including emerging techniques, recent advancements, and promising research directions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bayesian Approach to the Eagar–Tsai Model for Melt Pool Geometry Prediction with Implications in Additive Manufacturing of Metals

Here, this paper focuses on improving the melt pool geometry predictions and quantifying uncertainties using an adapted version of the Eagar–Tsai (E–T) model that incorporates temperature-dependent properties of the material as well as powder conditions. Additionally, Bayesian inference is employed to predict distributions for the E–T model input parameters of laser absorptivity and powder bed porosity by incorporating experimental results into the analysis. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is then used with these parameter distributions to estimate the melt pool depth and associated uncertainty. Our results for the 316L stainless steel suggest that both the absorptivity and powder bed porosity are strongly influenced by the laser power. In contrast, the scanning speed has only a marginal effect on both the absorptivity and powder bed porosity. We constructed a printability map using the Bayesian E–T model based on power-dependent input parameter values to demonstrate the merit of the approach. The Bayesian approach improved the accuracy in predicting the keyhole regions in the laser power-scan speed parameter space for the 316L stainless steel. Although applied to a specific adaptation of the E–T model, the method put forth can be extended to quantify uncertainties in other numerical models as well as in the estimation of unknown parameters.

316L Stainless Steel (SS).↗