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Enhancing New York City's resilience to sea level rise and increased coastal flooding

Accelerating Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet ice mass losses and potential West Antarctic Ice Sheet instability may lead to higher than previously anticipated future sea levels. The New York City Panel on Climate Change Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) upper-end, low probability sea level rise (SLR) scenario, which incorporates recent ice loss trends, improved ice sheet-ocean-atmosphere modeling, and potential ice sheet destabilization, projects SLR of up to 2.1 m by the 2080s and up to 2.9 m by 2100, at high greenhouse gas emissions (NPCC, 2019). These results exceed previous high-end SLR projections (90th percentile) of 1.5 m by the 2080s and 1.9 m by 2100, relative to 2000–2004 (NPCC, 2015). By 2100, the 1% annual chance (100-year) floodplain could cover 1/3 of the city's total area under ARIM; around 1/5 of the area could be flooded during monthly high tides. Some low-lying locations could become permanently inundated by late century. Will New York City coastal resiliency initiatives, guided, in part by NPCC findings, suffice for very high sea levels? Additional research is needed to determine technological, environmental, or economic limitations to coastal protection and to decide when and where strategic relocation may become necessary.

Sea level rise↗

Exploring the Relationship Between Social Factors and Government Survey Nonresponse

In a previous study, we explored the relationship between economic and political factors and survey refusal, and noted the importance to collect or otherwise obtain measures that will help us understand more about the social aspect of the social-political-economic construct of survey nonresponse. Recently, we had the opportunity to collect such measures as part of the Census Tracking Survey. The Tracking Survey was launched in September 2019 and concluded in June 2020. It was a national survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau that tracked public awareness of the 2020 Census. Participants were asked about a variety of questions, including questions about social engagement and empathy, both possible measures of one’s social environment and hence one’s attitude towards participating in a government survey. To our knowledge, empathy has not been considered as factor of survey nonresponse. We propose that social factors such as these play an important role in the decision to participate in a survey. Using the Tracking Survey data, we built a logistic regression model, with plan to participate/participated in the 2020 Census as the dependent variable, and known and suspected factors of survey participation as independent variables. We found that social engagement and empathy were both important factors of participating in the Census.

Luke J. Larsen↗

Space observations for global and regional studies of the biosphere

The capability to make space-based measurements of Earth at high spatial and temporal resolutions, which would not otherwise be economically or practically feasible, became available just in time to contribute to scientific understanding of the interactive processes governing the total Earth system. Such understanding has now become essential in order to take practical steps which would counteract or mitigate the pervasive impact of the growing human population on the future habitability of the Earth. The paper reviews the rationale for using space observations for studies of climate and terrestrial ecosystems at global and regional scales, as well as the requirements for such observations for studies of climate and ecosystem dynamics. The present status of these developments is reported along with initiatives under way to advance the use of satellite observations for Earth system studies. The most important contribution of space observations is the provision of physical or biophysical parameters for models representing various components of the Earth system. Examples of such parameters are given for climatic and ecosystem studies.

Cihlar, J.↗

Utilizing Earth Observations for Societal Issues

Over the last four decades a tremendous progress has been made in the Earth science space-based remote sensing observations, technologies and algorithms. Such advancements have improved the predictability by providing lead-time and accuracy of forecast in weather, climate, natural hazards, and natural resources. It has further reduced or bounded the overall uncertainties by partially improving our understanding of planet Earth as an integrated system that is governed by non-linear and chaotic behavior. Many countries such as the US, European Community, Japan, China, Russia, India has and others have invested billions of dollars in developing and launching space-based assets in the low earth (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) orbits. However, the wealth of this scientific knowledge that has potential of extracting monumental socio-economic benefits from such large investments have been slow in reaching the public and decision makers. For instance, there are a number of areas such as water resources and availability, energy forecasting, aviation safety, agricultural competitiveness, disaster management, air quality and public health, which can directly take advantage. Nevertheless, we all live in a global economy that depends on access to the best available Earth Science information for all inhabitants of this planet. This presentation discusses a process to transition Earth science data and products for societal needs including NASA's experience in achieving such objectives. It is important to mention that there are many challenges and issues that pertain to a number of areas such as: (1) difficulties in making a speedy transition of data and information from observations and models to relevant Decision Support Systems (DSS) or tools, (2) data and models inter-operability issues, (3) limitations of spatial, spectral and temporal resolution, (4) communication limitations as dictated by the availability of image processing and data compression techniques. Additionally, the most critical element amongst all is the organizational and management boundaries that must be resolved at local, state, national and international levels to implement and realize free flow of such vital information.

Habib, Shahid↗

Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem, focused and coordinated research efforts are needed, drawing from excellence across the broad drought research community. To meet this challenge, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the ambitious goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor, and predict drought over North America. The Task Force (duration of October 2011-September 2014) is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in partnership with NIDIS. It brings together over 30 leading MAPP-funded drought scientists from multiple academic and federal institutions [involves scientists from NOAA's research laboratories and centers, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and many universities] in a concerted research effort that builds on individual MAPP research projects. These projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those aimed at testing new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes (as part of NCEP's Climate Test Bed). The Drought Task Force provides focus and coordination to MAPP drought research activities and also facilitates synergies with other national and international drought research efforts, including those by the GDIS.

GDIS↗

Adaptive Management Methods to Protect the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Water Resource

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, water quality changes, and expansion of invasive aquatic plants threatens ecosystems, impedes ecosystem restoration, and is economically, environmentally, and sociologically detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California and local governments to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and waterway managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes. The team provides a comprehensive understanding of agricultural and urban land use in the Delta and the major water sheds (San Joaquin/Sacramento) supplying the Delta and interaction with drought and climate impacts on the environment, water quality, and weed growth. The team recommends conservation and modified land-use practices and aids local Delta stakeholders in developing management strategies. New remote sensing tools have been developed to enhance ability to assess conditions, inform decision support tools, and monitor management practices. Science gaps in understanding how native and invasive plants respond to altered environmental conditions are being filled and provide critical biological response parameters for Delta-SWAT simulation modeling. Operational agencies such as the California Department of Boating and Waterways provide testing and act as initial adopter of decision support tools. Methods developed by the project can become routine land and water management tools in complex river delta systems.

Agriculture↗

Low Noise Exhaust Nozzle Technology Development

NASA and the U.S. aerospace industry have been assessing the economic viability and environmental acceptability of a second-generation supersonic civil transport, or High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT). Development of a propulsion system that satisfies strict airport noise regulations and provides high levels of cruise and transonic performance with adequate takeoff performance, at an acceptable weight, is critical to the success of any HSCT program. The principal objectives were to: 1. Develop a preliminary design of an innovative 2-D exhaust nozzle with the goal of meeting FAR36 Stage III noise levels and providing high levels of cruise performance with a high specific thrust for Mach 2.4 HSCT with a range of 5000 nmi and a payload of 51,900 lbm, 2. Employ advanced acoustic and aerodynamic codes during preliminary design, 3. Develop a comprehensive acoustic and aerodynamic database through scale-model testing of low-noise, high-performance, 2-D nozzle configurations, based on the preliminary design, and 4. Verify acoustic and aerodynamic predictions by means of scale-model testing. The results were: 1. The preliminary design of a 2-D, convergent/divergent suppressor ejector nozzle for a variable-cycle engine powered, Mach 2.4 HSCT was evolved, 2. Noise goals were predicted to be achievable for three takeoff scenarios, and 3. Impact of noise suppression, nozzle aerodynamic performance, and nozzle weight on HSCT takeoff gross weight were assessed.

Majjigi, R. K.↗

Visible Light Responsive Catalysts Using Quantum Dot-Modified Ti02 for Air and Water Purification

The method of photocatalysis utilizing titanium dioxide, TiO2, as the catalyst has been widely studied for trace contaminant control for both air and water applications because of its low energy consumption and use of a regenerable catalyst. Titanium dioxide requires ultraviolet light for activation due to its band gap energy of 3.2 eV. Traditionally, Hg-vapor fluorescent light sources are used in PCO reactors and are a setback for the technology for space application due to the possibility of Hg contamination. The development of a visible light responsive (VLR) TiO2-based catalyst could lead to the use of solar energy in the visible region (approx.45% of the solar spectrum lies in the visible region; > 400 nm) or highly efficient LEDs (with wavelengths > 400 nm) to make PCO approaches more efficient, economical, and safe. Though VLR catalyst development has been an active area of research for the past two decades, there are few commercially available VLR catalysts; those that are available still have poor activity in the visible region compared to that in the UV region. Thus, this study was aimed at the further development of VLR catalysts by a new method - coupling of quantum dots (QD) of a narrow band gap semiconductor (e.g., CdS, CdSe, PbS, ZnSe, etc.) to the TiO2 by two preparation methods: 1) photodeposition and 2) mechanical alloying using a high-speed ball mill. A library of catalysts was developed and screened for gas and aqueous phase applications, using ethanol and 4-chlorophenol as the target contaminants, respectively. Both target compounds are well studied in photocatalytic systems serve as model contaminants for this research. Synthesized catalysts were compared in terms of preparation method, type of quantum dots, and dosage of quantum dots.

Coutts, Janelle L.↗

Monitoring Drought Conditions in the Navajo Nation Using NASA Earth Observations

The Navajo Nation, a 65,700 sq km Native American territory located in the southwestern United States, has been increasingly impacted by severe drought events and changes in climate. These events are coupled with a lack of domestic water infrastructure and economic resources, leaving approximately one-third of the population without access to potable water in their homes. Current methods of monitoring drought are dependent on state-based monthly Standardized Precipitation Index value maps calculated by the Western Regional Climate Center. However, these maps do not provide the spatial resolution needed to illustrate differences in drought severity across the vast Nation. To better understand and monitor drought events and drought regime changes in the Navajo Nation, this project created a geodatabase of historical climate information specific to the area, and a decision support tool to calculate average Standardized Precipitation Index values for user-specified areas. The tool and geodatabase use Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Monitor (GPM) observed precipitation data and Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model modeled historical precipitation data, as well as NASA's modeled Land Data Assimilation Systems deep soil moisture, evaporation, and transpiration data products. The geodatabase and decision support tool will allow resource managers in the Navajo Nation to utilize current and future NASA Earth observation data for increased decision-making capacity regarding future climate change impact on water resources.

Ly, Vickie↗

Remote Sensing May Provide Unprecedented Hydrological Data

Basic hydrological research and water resources management may reap tremendous benefits from remote sensing technology, studies are showing. Satellite coverage may allow unprecedented accuracy in the quantification of the global hydrological cycle, for example. Yet despite such benefits, few hydrologists currently use such data. This is partly because the needed tools and algorithms are not fully developed. Such development requires field experiments that combine remotely sensed data with detailed in situ observations. AGU's Remote Sensing in Hydrology Committee has constructed a Web site (http://Iand.gsfc.nasa.gov/RSHC.html) that gives an overview of many such experiments. Included on the site is information on each experiment's overall goal, the types of in situ and remotely sensed measurements taken, relevant climate and vegetation conditions, and so forth. Links to additional relevant Web sites are included. The site is designed to be a suitable starting point for those interested in learning more about remote sensing in hydrology. It lists members of the committee who can be contacted for further information. Hydrologists have recognized the potential of remote sensing technology since the 1970s. It offers a way to avoid the logistical and economic difficulties associated with obtaining continuous in situ measurements of various hydrological variables, difficulties that are particularly pronounced in remote regions. Microwave instruments in particular can potentially provide all-weather, areally averaged estimates of certain variables (such as precipitation, soil moisture, and snow water content) that have been essentially unattainable in the past. In remote sensing, the conversion of emitted and reflected radiances into useful hydrological data is a complex problem. The measured radiances, for example, reflect the integrated character of a pixel area, a scale inconsistent with the point measurements of traditional hydrology. To develop the needed algorithms, field experiments must be designed that combine relevant satellite measurements with traditional in situ measurements in regions that are al- ready well understood hydrologically. Such field experiments can lead to the development of hydrological models that are driven with remotely sensed data. Once the performance of these models is deemed acceptable in the heavily monitored basins, they can be "transported" for use in regions having little or no in situ measurement system. Author,5: Randal D. Koster, Paul R. Houser and Edwin T. Engman, Hydrological Sciences Branch, Laboratory for Hydrospheric Process, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA; William P. Kustas, Hydrology Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Beltsville, Maryland, USA.

Koster, R.↗

Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions over Indo-Gangetic Basin

About 60% of world population reside in Asia, in term of which sheer population density presents a major environmental stress. Economic expansion in this region is, in fact, accompanied by increases in bio-fuel burning, industrial pollution, and land cover and land use changes. With a growth rate of approx. 8%/yr for Indian economy, more than 600 million people from Lahore, Pakistan to Calcutta, India over the Indo-Gangetic Basin have particularly witnessed increased frequencies of floods and droughts as well as a dramatic increase in atmospheric loading of aerosols (i.e., anthropogenic and natural aerosol) in recent decades. This regional change (e.g., aerosol, cloud, precipitation, etc.) will constitute a vital part of the global change in the 21st century. Better understanding of the impacts of aerosols in affecting monsoon climate and water cycles is crucial in providing the physical basis to improve monsoon climate prediction and for disaster mitigation. Based on climate model simulations, absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) play a critical role in affecting interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. An initiative on the integrated (aerosols, clouds, and precipitation) measurements approach over the Indo-Gangetic Basin will be discussed. An array of ground-based (e.g., AERONET, MPLNET, SMART-COMMIT, etc.) and satellite (e.g., Terra, A-Train, etc.) sensors will be utilized to acquire aerosol characteristics, sources/sinks, and transport processes during the pre-monsoon (April-May, aerosol forcing) season, and to obtain cloud and precipitation properties during the monsoon (May-June, water cycle response) season. Close collaboration with other international programs, such as ABC, CLIVAR, GEWEX, and CEOP in the region is anticipated.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

Earth Observations and Integrative Models in Support of Food and Water Security

Global food production depends upon many factors that Earth observing satellites routinely measure about water, energy, weather, and ecosystems. Increasingly sophisticated, publicly-available satellite data products can improve efficiencies in resource management and provide earlier indication of environmental disruption. Satellite remote sensing provides a consistent, long-term record that can be used effectively to detect large-scale features over time, such as a developing drought. Accuracy and capabilities have increased along with the range of Earth observations and derived products that can support food security decisions with actionable information. This paper highlights major capabilities facilitated by satellite observations and physical models that have been developed and validated using remotely-sensed observations. Although we primarily focus on variables relevant to agriculture, we also include a brief description of the growing use of Earth observations in support of aquaculture and fisheries.

Water Resources↗

20,000 Years of Societal Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Southwest Asia

The Fertile Crescent, its hilly flanks and surrounding drylands has been a critical region for studying how climate has influenced societal change, and this review focuses on the region over the last 20,000 years. The complex social, economic, and environmental landscapes in the region today are not new phenomena and understanding their interactions requires a nuanced, multidisciplinary understanding of the past. This review builds on a history of collaboration between the social and natural palaeoscience disciplines. We provide a multidisciplinary, multiscalar perspective on the relevance of past climate, environmental, and archaeological research in assessing present day vulnerabilities and risks for the populations of southwest Asia. We discuss the complexity of palaeoclimatic data interpretation, particularly in relation to hydrology, and provide an overview of key time periods of palaeoclimatic interest. We discuss the critical role that vegetation plays in the human–climate–environment nexus and discuss the implications of the available palaeoclimate and archaeological data, and their interpretation, for palaeonarratives of the region, both climatically and socially. We also provide an overview of how modelling can improve our understanding of past climate impacts and associated change in risk to societies. We conclude by looking to future work, and identify themes of “scale” and “seasonality” as still requiring further focus. We suggest that by appreciating a given locale's place in the regional hydroscape, be it an archaeological site or palaeoenvironmental archive, more robust links to climate can be made where appropriate and interpretations drawn will demand the resolution of factors acting across multiple scales.

Levant↗

Developing the Foundations of an Exploration Class Medical System: Bridging the Capability Gap between LEO and Mars

NASA's overarching mission is to drive advances in science, technology, aeronautics, and space exploration to enhance knowledge, education, innovation, economic vitality, and Earth stewardship. Its Artemis Program encompasses the next steps in human space exploration, critical elements of which include the Orion vehicle and Gateway outpost in lunar orbit. Artemis is the first "exploration class" space travel system with the stated mission to establish sustainable exploration of the lunar surface and serve as a bridge to future human exploration of Mars. Success requires understanding both the commonalities and the differences between our experience to date, predominantly in Low-Earth-Orbit, and the challenges expected in long-duration exploration missions. In addition, these missions will incur significant constraints on both vehicle and human systems. To that end, NASA Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element clinicians, engineers, and scientists are developing the "foundation" for a fully vehicle-integrated exploration-class medical system using model-based systems engineering to trace and leverage clinical and engineering content to expand and refine the fidelity and confidence in the medical system itself.

MEDICAL SYSTEMS↗

Space station needs, attributes and architectural options study review report

A manned space station (SS) produces a significant net economic benefit over its cost, as well as providing substantial social and performance benefits. The largest space station benefits arise from the ability of the SS to warehouse parts, orbit replacement units (ORUs) and fuel and thereby increase the Space Transportation System (STS) load factor. Substantial other benefits are made possibly by the basing of a returnable orbital transfer vehicles (ROTV) and the servicing of geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) satellites at the SS. It is recommended that a manned space station be placed in a 28.5 degree inclination orbit in 1990. This SS can be designed to grow, to be maintained and to incorporate new technology as it becomes available. It should be augmented with unmanned space platforms at both 28.5 degree and polar inclinations. These platforms are designed to have very high commonality with the SS resource models.

Source record↗

The Wallops Flight Facility Model for an Integrated Federal/Commercial Launch Range

Historically, the federal government has been the predominant purchaser of space launches in the United States. The government met its needs through purchase of hardware and services. It also provided the infrastructure necessary to conduct launch operations through federal launch ranges, both military and NASA. Under this model, the government had the complete ownership, responsibility, liability, and expense for launch activities. As the commercial space sector grew, there emerged a corresponding growth in demand for launch range services. However, the expense and complexity of activities has thus far deterred a rapid rise in the establishment of purely commercial launch sites. In this context, purely commercial is defined as "without benefit of capabilities provided by the federal government." Consistent with the Commercial Space Launch Act, in recent years NASA and the Air Force have supported commercial launches from government launch ranges on a cost-reimbursable, non-interference basis. In this mode the commercial launch service providers contract with the government to provide services including use of facilities, tracking and data services, and range safety. As the commercial market projections began to show significant opportunities for economic development, several states established spaceports to provide the services necessary to meet these projected commercial needs. In 1997, NASA agreed to the establishment of the Virginia Space Flight Center (VSFC) at the Wallops Flight Facility. Under this arrangement, NASA agreed to allow Virginia Commercial Space Flight Authority (VCSFA) to construct facilities on NASA property and agreed to provide services in accordance with the Space Act of 1958 and the Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984 (as amended) to support VSFC launch customers. The relationship between NASA and VCSFA, however, has evolved beyond a customer supplier relationship. A partnership relationship has emerged which pairs the strengths of the established NASA test range and the state-sponsored, commercial launch facility provider, in an attempt to satisfy the needs for flexible, low-cost access to space. Furthermore, the future of the NASA/Wallops Test Range is closely linked with the success of VCSFA in promoting commercial launches from Wallops. This paper will describe the changing paradigm of the federal launch range and the unique aspects of the NASA/Wallops Facility relationship with VCSFA. Discussion will include institutional cost-sharing, business development and marketing, joint educational programs, and strategic planning.

Underwood, Bruce E.↗

Towards Designing an Integrated Earth Observation System for the Provision of Solar Energy Resource and Assessment

The GEOSS strategic plan specifically targets the area of improved energy resource management due to the importance of these to the economic and social viability of every nation of the world. With the world s increasing demand for energy resources, the need for new alternative energy resources grows. This paper overviews a new initiative within the International Energy Agency that addresses needs to better manage and develop solar energy resources worldwide. The goal is to provide the solar energy industry, the electricity sector, governments, and renewable energy organizations and institutions with the most suitable and accurate information of the solar radiation resources at the Earth's surface in easily-accessible formats and understandable quality metrics. The scope of solar resource assessment information includes historic data sets and currently derived data products using satellite imagery and other means. Thus, this new task will address the needs of the solar energy sector while at the same time will serve as a model that satisfies GEOSS objectives and goals.

Stackouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

Procedure for generating global atmospheric engine emissions data from future supersonic transport aircraft. The 1990 high speed civil transport studies

The input for global atmospheric chemistry models was generated for baseline High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) configurations at Mach 1.6, 2.2, and 3.2. The input is supplied in the form of number of molecules of specific exhaust constituents injected into the atmosphere per year by latitude and by altitude (for 2-D codes). Seven exhaust constituents are currently supplied: NO, NO2, CO, CO2, H2O, SO2, and THC (Trace Hydrocarbons). An eighth input is also supplied, NO(x), the sum of NO and NO2. The number of molecules of a given constituent emitted per year is a function of the total fuel burned by a supersonic fleet and the emission index (EI) of the aircraft engine for the constituent in question. The EIs for an engine are supplied directly by the engine manufacturers. The annual fuel burn of a supersonic fleet is calculated from aircraft performance and economic criteria, both of which are strongly dependent on basic design parameters such as speed and range. The altitude and latitude distribution of the emission is determined based on 10 Intern. Air Transport Assoc. (IATA) regions chosen to define the worldwide route structure for future HSCT operations and the mission flight profiles.

Sohn, R. A.↗