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DOE OSTI2024

Learning-Based Building Flexibility Estimation and Control to Improve Microgrid Economics and Resilience: Preprint

This paper proposes a learning-based building flexibility estimation and control framework to improve system economics and resilience. A data-driven building load flexibility model consisting of weather forecasting and estimating load consumption is proposed to quantify building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) load flexibility. A reinforcement learning-based microgrid controller is proposed to dispatch distributed generators, distributed energy resources, and build HVAC loads while taking flexibility information as one of the inputs. Simulation analysis is conducted on the model of a real microgrid in California. The effectiveness of the proposed learning-based building flexibility estimation and control in reducing microgrid energy costs and improving the sustainability of critical loads is demonstrated.

building load flexibility↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins

This repository of global hydrogeologic datasets contains aquifer properties on 0.5° scale, including depth to groundwater (Fan et al., 2013), aquifer thickness (de Graaf et al., 2015), WHYMap aquifer classes (Richts et al., 2011), porosity and permeability (Gleeson et al., 2014), digitized and geo-processed from their respective sources. Globally gridded aquifer properties could be used independently to estimate global groundwater availability or used as critical inputs to the superwell model to simulate groundwater extraction and provide estimates of pumped volumes and unit costs under user-specific scenarios. Key resources related to this data are: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Graham, N., Yoon, J., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024; In-prep). Long-term Hydro-economic Assessment Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply: Superwell v1. Geoscientific Model Development. superwell model repository which uses this data to simulate groundwater extraction and provides estimates of the global extractable volumes and unit-costs ($/km3) of accessible groundwater production under user-specified extraction scenarios. Repository Overview Main output: aquifer_properties.csv contains all processed outputs, including aquifer properties like porosity, permeability, aquifer thickness, and depth to groundwater. shapefiles.zip: contains all digitized GIS databases and shapefile for all aquifer properties prep_inputs.R: R script that processes the shapefiles to produce the aquifer_properties file plot_inputs.R: R script for plotting the maps and conducting preliminary analysis on the available groundwater volume basin_to_country_mapping.csv, basin_country_region_mapping.csv and continent_county_mapping.csv provide the mapping between continents, 32 energy-economic macro regions, countries, and water basins for post-processing aquifer_properties.csv Maps: Each map visualizes the spatial distribution of one of the aquifer properties across the globe map_in_Porosity.png map_in_Permeability.png map_in_Aquifer_thickness.png map_in_Depth_to_water.png map_in_Grid_area_km.png map_in_WHYClass.png Sample inputs sample_inputs.py: this script samples inputs from the aquifer_properties dataset, ensuring the sampled and original inputs maintain the same distributions sampled_data_100.csv contains 100 sampled data points and sampled_data_100.png compares their distributions Dataset Overview The main outputs are consolidated in a comprehensive aquifer_properties.csv file and include the following fields: GridCellID: Unique identifier for each (roughly 0.5°) grid cell Continent: Continent name Country: Country name GCAM_basin_ID: Identifier for GCAM hydrologic basin Basin_long_name: Full name of the basin WHYClass: Hydrogeologic classification based on WHYMap aquifer classes (Richts et al., 2011) Porosity: Soil porosity (%) (Gleeson et al., 2014) Permeability: Soil permeability (in square meters; Gleeson et al., 2014) Aquifer_thickness: Thickness of the aquifer (in meters; de Graaf et al., 2015) Depth_to_water: Depth to groundwater (in meters; Fan et al., 2013) Grid_area: Area of the grid cell (in square meters) Key References The datasets are digitized versions of global hydrogeologic properties from the following key literature sources: Depth to Groundwater: Fan, Y., Li, H., & Miguez-Macho, G. (2013). Global Patterns of Groundwater Table Depth. Science, 339(6122), 940-943. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1229881 Aquifer Thickness: de Graaf, I. E. M., Sutanudjaja, E. H., van Beek, L. P. H., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2015). A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19(2), 823-837. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-823-2015 Porosity and Permeability: Gleeson, T., Moosdorf, N., Hartmann, J., & van Beek, L. P. H. (2014). A glimpse beneath earth's surface: GLobal HYdrogeology MaPS (GLHYMPS) of permeability and porosity. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(11), 3891-3898. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059856 Aquifer classes: Richts, A., Struckmeier, W. F., & Zaepke, M. (2011). WHYMAP and the Groundwater Resources Map of the World 1:25,000,000. In J. A. A. Jones (Ed.), Sustaining Groundwater Resources: A Critical Element in the Global Water Crisis (pp. 159-173). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3426-7_10 Cite as Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or open an issue in superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

aquifer thickness↗
DOE OSTI2022

An agent-based modeling tool supporting bioenergy and bio-product community communication regarding cellulosic bioeconomy development

The emergence of the cellulosic bioeconomy requires not only adequate technological, economic, and policy advances, but also effective communication and coordination among the multiple stakeholders in the bioeconomy community. Aiming to facilitate stakeholder communication and collaboration for cellulosic bioeconomy growth, an agent-based model is developed as a community communication tool in this study. The tool simulates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, as well as the responses and interactions between the stakeholders and biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. The agent behavior rules are developed and validated based on behavior and economic theories and information attained from a stakeholder focus group study and a land use survey. A pilot study in a Central Illinois watershed shows stakeholder synergies, i.e., positive feedback loops across multiple stakeholders. The modeling tool's role in facilitating community communication is demonstrated via the focus group study. A comparison of policy scenarios suggests that the cellulosic bioeconomy development is fastest under a portfolio of policies combining the views of the multiple stakeholders. Critically, subsidy for small-scale bio-facilities is essential as it rapidly initializes an early market for cellulosic feedstocks and the adoption of Miscanthus. As a result, the communication tool is applied to bringing stakeholders and researchers together to develop shared visions, assess barriers, and explore solution portfolios to initialize and speed up the regional cellulosic bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Residential Façade Upgrades: Market Assessment and Recommendations

In support of DOE’s move toward transformational whole-building upgrades and enclosure solutions, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are partnering and collaborating with leading building science researchers and home-performance entities to identify and characterize technical and economic barriers to façade retrofits in an effort to identify market-viable façade solutions and opportunities for an actionable plan to transform the market. The project includes partnerships with Building Science Corporation (BSC) and a combination of strategic implementation partners with home-performance and retrofit expertise and industry contacts. The project will include expert advisory and review consultation from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s (LBNL’s) Residential Windows & Attachments team and Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Building Envelope team. The project consists of three parts: 1. a market analysis that captures the current state of the façade retrofit market and includes housing characteristics and retrofit costs, façade retrofit approaches and materials, contractor business models and workforce requirements to support advanced façade approaches; 2. an economic analysis focused on the viability of advanced façade retrofit approaches and materials; and 3. field demonstration of façade retrofits that include enhanced insulation/air-sealing and window technologies in multiple climate zones. This report represents the market analysis, as outlined in item 1 above. The goal of this analysis is to provide a techno-economic study that supports comprehensive retrofits of residential enclosures that include traditional approaches, and integrated wall assemblies and windows that result in durable, energy efficient, and marketable strategies. This study will provide a better knowledge base regarding the viable market for façade retrofit strategies, identify the barriers to uptake, analyze economic opportunities, and develop documentation specifically aimed to overcome technical and market barriers associated with installation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Business Case Analysis for Digital Safety-Related Instrumentation & Control System Modernizations

The commercial nuclear sector faces unprecedented financial challenges driven by low natural gas prices and subsidized renewables in a marketplace that does not reward carbon-free baseload capacity. These circumstances, along with increasingly antiquated labor-centric operating models and analog technology, have forced the premature closure of multiple nuclear facilities and placed a much larger population of nuclear power stations at risk. Nuclear plant economic survival in current and forecasted market conditions requires an efficient and technology-centric operating model that harvests the native efficiencies of advanced technology. This is analogous to transformations in nearly every other industry. In light of previous industry experience in modernizing safety Instrumentation and Controls (I&C) systems, nuclear utilities are reluctant to pursue these upgrades due to uncertainty in licensing and cost.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examining the Use of the Technology Acceptance Model for Adoption of Advanced Digital Technologies in Nuclear Power Plants

The United States nuclear industry is being economically challenged and needs wide-scale adoption of enabling technology like advanced automation to remain viable. To enable wide-scale adoption of advanced technology, addressing the human-technology integration challenges and factors that influence technology acceptance (i.e., ‘buy in’) is pertinent. This work examines the Technology Acceptance Model as a framework for characterizing the factors influencing technology adoption in the nuclear industry. An outcome of this work is to support the development of future tools such as a technology acceptance survey that can be used to assess technology acceptance throughout the lifespan of a modernization program to provide a systematic way of ensuring stakeholder and operations ‘buy in.’

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Business Case Analysis for Artificial Intelligence-Large Language Model Technology Integration

AI-assisted processes are expected to enhance operational efficiency and improve decision-making, supporting the long-term economic viability of nuclear power plants. However, detailed business analyses of AI-generated cost savings are rarely performed. Given the recent industry interest in Large Language Model (LLM), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has conducted a comprehensive business case analysis of LLM Artificial Intelligence (AI) implementation in nuclear plant engineering workflows. The research employed three complementary business case approaches to evaluate impact of an LLM, using three representative engineering processes as use-cases: Boric Acid Corrosion (BAC) Evaluations, Maintenance Rule Evaluations, and 10 CFR 50.59 Screenings. Through detailed workload analyses and structured interviews, the study quantified significant efficiency improvements ranging from 11% to 59% across these processes. The research further considers how these efficiency gains could translate into tangible reliability improvements through enhanced engineering capacity. Analysis of historical plant trip data indicates that enabling engineers to focus on proactive reliability activities could provide substantial financial benefits through avoided outages, potentially generating greater value than the direct efficiency improvements alone. By documenting successful applications, implementation challenges, and strategic opportunities, this research provides nuclear utilities with a practical framework for evaluating the value of AI technology to support long-term operations through advanced digital technologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Evaluation of the Economic and Resilience Benefits of a Microgrid in Northampton, Massachusetts

Recent developments and advances in distributed energy resource (DER) technologies make them valuable assets in microgrids. This paper presents an innovative evaluation framework for microgrid assets to capture economic benefits from various grid and behind-the-meter services in grid-connecting mode and resilience benefits in islanding mode. In particular, a linear programming formulation is used to model different services and DER operational constraints to determine the optimal DER dispatch to maximize economic benefits. For the resiliency analysis, a stochastic evaluation procedure is proposed to explicitly quantify the microgrid survivability against a random outage, considering uncertainties associated with photovoltaic (PV) generation, system load, and distributed generator failures. Optimal coordination strategies are developed to minimize unserved energy and improve system survivability, considering different levels of system connectedness. The proposed framework has been applied to evaluate a proposed microgrid in Northampton, Massachusetts that would link the Northampton Department of Public Works, Cooley Dickenson Hospital, and Smith Vocational Area High School. The findings of this analysis indicate that over a 20-year economic life, a 441 kW/441 kWh battery energy storage system, and 386 kW PV solar array can generate $2.5 million in present value benefits, yielding a 1.16 return on investment ratio. Results of this study also show that forming a microgrid generally improves system survivability, but the resilience performance of individual facilities varies depending on power-sharing strategies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Home charging for all: Techno-economic and life cycle assessment of multi-unit dwelling electric vehicle charging hubs

Ubiquitous electric vehicle adoption can drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) but will require equitable home charging infrastructure for all residences. Unlike single-family homes, Multi-Unit Dwellings (MUD) currently lack market share and access to nearby charging infrastructure partly due to expensive capital costs for reluctant residential property-owners. Further, this work evaluates the levelized cost of charging (LCOC) for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) at MUD community charging hubs through a techno-economic analysis (TEA) that leverages real-world charging data and costs. Three different MUD charging types are investigated for a baseline and optimistic case: 1.9-kW Level 1 (L1), 6.6-kW Level 2 (L2), and 50-kW Direct Current Fast Charging (DCFC) stations under three different ownership models: resident, utility, and private company. Results demonstrate L1 and L2 chargers to be less expensive than the gasoline equivalent across the United States. Further, utility and private company ownership models, which avoid initial costs for residential property owners, result in a large LCOC premium for L1 and moderate LCOC premium for L2 relative to the resident ownership model. In contrast, DCFC is shown to be expensive for baseline scenarios but economical for optimistic scenarios especially under private company ownership. This work also performs a cradle to grave (C2G) life cycle assessment (LCA) of an average passenger BEV and gasoline conventional vehicle (CV) using yearly (grid mix & vehicle parameters), hourly (grid mix), and state-level (grid mix) resolution. Results show BEVs to have lower GHG emissions (-86% to-10%) than gasoline CVs in the contiguous U.S. Next, the system boundary of the TEA is extended to the total cost of ownership (TCO) of BEVs. The TCO is then coupled with the C2G GHG emissions to calculate the cost of GHG emissions reduction. Ultimately, the cost of GHG emissions reduction from MUD BEVs relative to gasoline CVs is shown to be negative for every scenario except baseline DCFC, meaning MUD BEV charging infrastructure can be a cost-effective endeavor to reduce GHG emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins

This repository of global hydrogeologic datasets contains aquifer properties on 0.5° scale, including depth to groundwater (Fan et al., 2013), aquifer thickness (de Graaf et al., 2015), WHYMap aquifer classes (Richts et al., 2011), recharge (Döll and Fiedler, 2008; Gleeson et al., 2016), lakes (Messager et al., 2016), porosity and permeability (Gleeson et al., 2014), digitized and geo-processed from their respective sources. Globally gridded aquifer properties could be used independently to estimate global groundwater availability or used as critical inputs to the superwell model to simulate groundwater extraction and provide estimates of pumped volumes and unit costs under user-specific scenarios. Key resources related to this data are: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S. B., Graham, N. T., Yoon, J., Wild, T. B., Hejazi, M., Watson, D. J., & Vernon, C. R. (2025). Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(5), 1737-1767. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025 superwell model repository which uses this data to simulate groundwater extraction and provides estimates of the global extractable volumes and unit-costs ($/km3) of accessible groundwater production under user-specified extraction scenarios. Repository Overview Main output: aquifer_properties_rec.csv contains all processed outputs, including aquifer properties like porosity, permeability, recharge, lake areas, aquifer thickness, and depth to groundwater. shapefiles.zip: contains all digitized GIS databases and shapefile for all aquifer properties prep_inputs.R and prep_inputs_recharge_lakes.R: R scripts that process the shapefiles to produce the aquifer_properties_rec.csv file plot_inputs.R: R script for plotting the maps and conducting preliminary analysis on the available groundwater volume basin_to_country_mapping.csv, basin_country_region_mapping.csv and continent_county_mapping.csv provide the mapping between continents, 32 energy-economic macro regions, countries, and water basins for post-processing aquifer_properties_rec.csv Maps: Each map visualizes the spatial distribution of one of the aquifer properties across the globe map_in_Porosity.png map_in_Permeability.png map_in_Aquifer_thickness.png map_in_Depth_to_water.png map_in_Recharge.png map_in_Grid_area_km.png map_in_Lake_area_km.png map_in_WHYClass.png Sample inputs sample_inputs.py: this script samples inputs from the aquifer_properties_rec dataset, ensuring the sampled and original inputs maintain the same distributions sampled_data_100.csv contains 100 sampled data points and sampled_data_100.png compares their distributions Dataset Overview The main outputs are consolidated in a comprehensive aquifer_properties_rec.csv file and include the following fields: GridCellID: Unique identifier for each (roughly 0.5°) grid cell Continent: Continent name Country: Country name GCAM_basin_ID: Identifier for GCAM hydrologic basin Basin_long_name: Full name of the basin WHYClass: Hydrogeologic classification based on WHYMap aquifer classes (Richts et al., 2011) Porosity: Soil porosity (%) (Gleeson et al., 2014) Permeability: Soil permeability (in square meters; Gleeson et al., 2014) Aquifer_thickness: Thickness of the aquifer (in meters; de Graaf et al., 2015) Depth_to_water: Depth to groundwater (in meters; Fan et al., 2013) Recharge: long-term annual averaged recharge rates (in m/yr; Döll and Fiedler, 2008; Gleeson et al., 2016) Grid_area: Area of the grid cell (in square meters) Lakes_area: Area of inland lakes (in square meters; Messager et al., 2016) Key References The datasets are digitized versions of global hydrogeologic properties from the following key literature sources: Depth to Groundwater: Fan, Y., Li, H., & Miguez-Macho, G. (2013). Global Patterns of Groundwater Table Depth. Science, 339(6122), 940-943. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1229881 Aquifer Thickness: de Graaf, I. E. M., Sutanudjaja, E. H., van Beek, L. P. H., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2015). A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19(2), 823-837. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-823-2015 Porosity and Permeability: Gleeson, T., Moosdorf, N., Hartmann, J., & van Beek, L. P. H. (2014). A glimpse beneath earth's surface: GLobal HYdrogeology MaPS (GLHYMPS) of permeability and porosity. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(11), 3891-3898. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059856 Aquifer classes: Richts, A., Struckmeier, W. F., & Zaepke, M. (2011). WHYMAP and the Groundwater Resources Map of the World 1:25,000,000. In J. A. A. Jones (Ed.), Sustaining Groundwater Resources: A Critical Element in the Global Water Crisis (pp. 159-173). Springer Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3426-7_10 Recharge: Döll, P., & Fiedler, K. (2008). Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12(3), 863-885. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-863-2008; Gleeson, T., Befus, K. M., Jasechko, S., Luijendijk, E., & Cardenas, M. B. (2016). The global volume and distribution of modern groundwater. Nature Geoscience, 9(2), 161-167. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2590 Inland Lakes: Messager, M. L., Lehner, B., Grill, G., Nedeva, I., & Schmitt, O. (2016). Estimating the volume and age of water stored in global lakes using a geo-statistical approach. Nature Communications, 7(1), 13603. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13603 Cite as Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MultiSector Dynamics-Living, Intuitive, Value-adding, Environment. https://doi.org/10.57931/2484226 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or open an issue in the superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

aquifer thickness↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermoeconomic cost optimization of superconducting magnets for proton therapy gantries

A compact gantry delivering 70-220 MeV protons with fixed field in the superconducting magnets could reduce the cost and improve the adoption of proton therapy. While a number of magnet and cryogenics designs have been proposed, the combined capital and operating costs of state-of-the-art superconducting materials have not been analyzed. In response, we develop a thermoeconomic model of a multi-stage, conduction cooled gantry lattice and analyze the cryocooler operating cost, cryocooler capital cost and conductor capital cost for Nb-Ti, Nb 3 Sn, REBCO and Bi-2223 over a continuous range of magnet temperatures, and a differential evolution algorithm is used to identify the optimal combination of thermal intercept temperatures. Although Nb3Sn yields the lowest Net Present Value (NPV) of $111.7k at a magnet temperature of 9.4 K, the optimized Bi-2223 design at 12.8 K approaches the realm of commercial feasibility by offering improved thermal stability and forgoing the need for costly conductor heat treatment and magnet quench training. Furthermore, it was found that Nb3Sn was more cost effective than Nb-Ti and that REBCO was not economically viable for the parameters of this investigation. Overall, the thermoeconomic model developed herein can optimize conductor choices, magnet temperatures and thermal staging which has value for any conduction-cooled superconducting magnet.

BSCCO↗
DOE OSTI2020

Kinetics Modeling for Design of Continuous Enzymatic Hydrolysis

Enzymatic hydrolysis of cellulose to monomeric sugars continues to be a limiting step in cost-effectively producing sugar and fermentation-based biofuels from biomass. In particular, the high cost of enzymes coupled with the long time-scale of reaction pose challenges to economic viability. Performing enzymatic hydrolysis in a continuous mode with enzyme recycle may provide a path towards substantially reduced costs for sugar production, but design and analysis are complicated by a lack of suitable kinetics models. Computationally attainable models, such as fractal-based models, require knowledge of the reaction-history of the biomass, and are thus only suitable for describing the batch reactions from which they are derived. Fundamental models, while potentially more generalizable, are often too computationally intensive to use in process or reactor modeling. In this work, a phenomenological rate model is proposed based on a two-phase substrate representation. Good agreement is seen between batch and continuous enzymatic hydrolysis (CEH) experiment data, which validates the model and enables us to solve for reactor design parameters, such as CEH reactor size and stream flow rates, based on process variables like yield. This model is integrated with techno-economic analysis software to explore economic sensitivities. Important design optimizations and tradeoffs are identified and quantified, including the relative cost imposed by rate slowdown from sugar inhibition versus the cost to remove and concentrate sugars at a lower concentration. It also identifies, high-leverage avenues for further exploration, such as increasing the maximum feasible solids concentration, and sustaining high membrane flux and reliability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Algae to HEFA : Economics and potential deployment in the United States

Abstract To reach the goals set by the US Department of Energy's Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge, currently available feedstocks may be insufficient. Giving priority to developing, prototyping and reducing the cost of algal feedstock before investing and lining up locations is important. As the production of algal feedstocks advances, a simplified conversion approach using more mature technologies can help reduce the investment risk for algae‐based fuels. Reducing process complexity to the steps described here [namely, conversion of lipids to HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids) fuels and relegating the remainder of the biomass to anaerobic digestion or food/feed production] enables the near‐term production of algal SAF but presents challenging economics depending on achievable cultivation costs and compositional quality. However, these economics can be improved by present‐day policy incentives. With these incentives, the modeled algae‐to‐HEFA pathway could reach a minimum fuel selling price as low as $4.7 per gasoline gallon equivalent depending on the carbon intensity reduction that can be achieved compared with petroleum. Uncertainty about algal feedstock production maturity in the current state of technology and the future will play a large role in determining the economic feasibility of building algae‐to‐HEFA facilities. For example, if immaturity increases the feedstock price by even 10%, SAF production in 2050 is about 58% of the production which could have been achieved with mature feedstock. Additionally, growth in this conversion pathway can be notably boosted through the inclusion of subsidies, and also through higher‐value coproducts or higher lipid yields beyond the scope of the process considered here.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets

This repository contains simulated outputs from superwell – a hydro-economic tool for long-term assessment of groundwater cost and supply – providing globally gridded groundwater extractable volumes and associated unit costs ($/km³) for accessible groundwater production, based on a variety of user-defined depletion and ponded depth scenarios. Key model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S. B., Graham, N. T., Yoon, J., Wild, T. B., Hejazi, M., Watson, D. J., & Vernon, C. R. (2025). Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1. Geoscientific Model Development, 18(5), 1737-1767. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-1737-2025 Find the source code of the superwell model on GitHub: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Repository Overview Main output: superwell_outputs.7z contains 6 files (4.5 GB) named as superwell_py_deep_all_0.*PD_0.*DL.csv. These files present superwell outputs of global groundwater extraction volumes and cost estimates on a 0.5° scale for six scenarios with different Ponded Depth (PD; 0.3 and 0.6 m) and Depletion Limit (DL; 5%, 25%, and 40% of available volume) targets over the entire pumping lifetime of a grid cell superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_sample_100.csv contains superwell outputs for 100 data points sampled to match the global inputs' distribution superwell_py_deep_all_0.3PD_0.25DL_Grid_72548.csv contains superwell output for a single grid cell concept_v5.png provides an overview of the superwell workflow Outputs Description year_number: year of pumping depletion_limit: set depletion limit (DL) as a volume fraction of total available groundwater Mappings: continent, country, gcam_basin_id, Basin_long_name, grid_id: geographic identifiers and basin information Inputs: grid_area (km²): area of the grid cell whyclass: hydrogeological classification of the aquifer permeability (m/day), porosity (%), total_thickness (m), depth_to_water (m): aquifer properties. The geo-processed input data has been published separately: https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 Model outputs: orig_aqfr_sat_thickness (m), aqfr_sat_thickness (m): original and remaining/instantaneous saturated thickness of the aquifer hydraulic_conductivity (m/day), transmissivity (m²/day): hydraulic properties of the aquifer radius_of_influence (m), areal_extent (km²): well radius and area of influence from the center of the well number_of_wells (-): number of wells in a grid cell determined by a ratio of well area and grid area max_drawdown (m), drawdown (m), drawdown_interference (m): well and aquifer drawdown during extraction total_head (m): total lift for the groundwater (depth to water plus drawdown) total_well_length (m): total depth of wells drilled well_yield (m³/day): pumping rate or well yield power (kW), energy (kWh): power and energy required for pumping groundwater Volume Outputs: volume_produced_perwell (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_perwell (m³): production volume metrics per well volume_produced_allwells (m³), cumulative_vol_produced_allwells (m³): aggregate extraction volumes for all wells in a grid cell available_volume (m³): available groundwater in storage for the grid cell as determined by aquifer properties depleted_vol_fraction: fraction of total volume pumped over available volumes in a grid cell (same as depletion limit) Cost Outputs: well_installation_cost ($): well installation cost based on the hydrogeological complexity of the aquifer annual_capital_cost, maintenance_cost, nonenergy_cost ($): nonenergy costs energy_cost_rate ($/kWh): electricity rate energy_cost ($): energy cost of pumping groundwater total_cost_perwell ($), total_cost_allwells ($): total annual energy and non-energy cost for each and all wells in a grid cell a unit_cost ($/m³), unit_cost_per_km3 ($/km³), unit_cost_per_acreft ($/acre-ft): total cost of pumping a unit of groundwater, indicated for different spatial units Key Resources Model documentation: Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Graham, N., Yoon, J., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024; In-prep). Long-term Hydro-economic Assessment Tool for Evaluating Global Groundwater Cost and Supply: Superwell v1. Geoscientific Model Development. Input data: Niazi, H., Watson, D., Hejazi, M., Yonkofski, C., Ferencz, S., Vernon, C., Graham, N., Wild, T., & Yoon, J. (2024). Global Geo-processed Data of Aquifer Properties by 0.5° Grid, Country and Water Basins. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307831 superwell source code: https://github.com/JGCRI/superwell Cite as Niazi, H., Ferencz, S., Yoon, J., Graham, N., Wild, T., Hejazi, M., Watson, D., & Vernon, C. (2024). Globally Gridded Groundwater Extraction Volumes and Costs under Six Depletion and Ponded Depth Targets. MSD-LIVE Data repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2307832 Contact Reach out to Hassan Niazi or Stephen Ferencz or open an issue in the superwell repository for questions or suggestions.

Earth Systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a web-based screening tool for ground source heat pump applications

Ground source heat pump (GSHP) technology has great potential to help the nation meet its energy and decarbonization goals, but several barriers hinder the wide application of GSHP. Important barriers include the lack of a coherent toolset for analyzing the technical feasibility and economic viability of the GSHP application. The current design and analysis methods are ineffective and require significant expertise to apply. Although building energy modeling is increasingly important in designing buildings, the tools for GSHP modeling and simulation are lacking. A web-based free-to-use tool is being developed for quick techno-economic analysis of GSHP applications in nearly any building in the United States. This tool is enabled by improvements in the calculation methodology to allow rapid sizing of borehole configurations that provide significant cost savings. The screening tool currently uses US Department of Energy (DOE) prototype building models and an extended g-function library to size ground heat exchangers and simulate the performance of GSHP systems. The team is integrating with DOE's Oak Ridge National Laboratory's AutoBEM program to automatically create a building model based on user inputs. This paper introduces the structure, components, features, and results of the web-based screening tool for GSHP applications. Future directions for further developing the tool are also discussed.

Liu, Xiaobing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning-Based Weather-Related Power Outage Prediction with Socio-Economic and Power Infrastructure Data

This paper presents a deep learning-based approach for hourly power outage probability prediction within census tracts encompassing a utility company's service territory. Two distinct deep learning models, conditional Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and unconditional MLP, were developed to forecast power outage probabilities, leveraging a rich array of input features gathered from publicly available sources including weather data, weather station locations, power infrastructure maps, socio-economic and demographic statistics, and power outage records. Given a one-hour-ahead weather forecast, the models predict the power outage probability for each census tract, taking into account both the weather prediction and the location's characteristics. The deep learning models employed different loss functions to optimize prediction performance. Our experimental results underscore the significance of socio-economic factors in enhancing the accuracy of power outage predictions at the census tract level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗