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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Analysis of Wind and Turbulence Predictions With Mesoscale‐Coupled Large Eddy Simulations Using Ensemble Machine Learning

Abstract Coupling between mesoscale models and large‐eddy simulation (LES) models is increasingly used to more realistically represent the wide range of scales of atmospheric motions affecting boundary layer winds and turbulence that need to be simulated accurately for applications such as wind energy. However, such mesoscale‐to‐microscale coupled modeling frameworks are potentially affected by a large number of uncertain closure parameters. Here, we investigate the sensitivity associated with six closure parameters related to a 1.5‐order subgrid‐scale turbulence closure for an ensemble of mesoscale‐coupled LES. The simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model nested from horizontal resolutions of greater than a kilometer down to tens of meters. Closure parameters are varied to generate perturbed parameter ensembles for two case studies of highly sheared, convective boundary layers observed in the Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Machine learning algorithms are used to explore the sensitivity of LES predictions, considering the effects of the perturbed physical parameters alongside categorical factors such as the case study identity, measurement location, and LES resolution. For the conditions we examine, a single parameter, the eddy viscosity coefficient, is the dominant source of parametric sensitivity and its importance is comparable to the categorical factors for several of the simulation response variables we examine.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced-order modeling of near-field THMC coupled processes for nuclear waste repositories in shale

Performance assessment (PA) of geologic radioactive waste repositories requires three-dimensional simulation of highly nonlinear, thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC), multiphase flow and transport processes across many kilometers and over tens to hundreds of thousands of years. Integrating the effects of a near-field geomechanical process (i.e. buffer swelling) into coupled THC simulations through reduced-order modeling, rather than through fully coupled geomechanics, can reduce the dimensionality of the problem and improve computational efficiency. In this study, PFLOTRAN simulations model a single waste package in a shale host rock repository, where re-saturation of a bentonite buffer causes the buffer to swell and exert stress on a highly fractured disturbed rock zone (DRZ). Three types of stress-dependent permeability functions (exponential, modified cubic, and Two-part Hooke’s law models) are implemented to describe mechanical characteristics of the system. Overall, our modeling study suggests that compressing fractures reduces DRZ permeability, which could influence the rate of radionuclide transport and exchange with corrosive species in host rock groundwater that could accelerate waste package degradation. Less permeable shale host rock delays buffer swelling, consequently retarding DRZ permeability reduction as well as chemical transport within the barrier system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

STITCHES: creating new scenarios of climate model output by stitching together pieces of existing simulations

Abstract. Climate model output emulation has long been attempted to support impact research, mainly to fill in gaps in the scenario space. Given the computational cost of running coupled earth system models (ESMs), which are usually the domain of supercomputers and require on the order of days to weeks to complete a century-long simulation, only a handful of different scenarios are usually chosen to externally force ESM simulations. An effective emulator, able to run on standard computers in times of the order of minutes rather than days could therefore be used to derive climate information under scenarios that were not run by ESMs. Lately, the necessity of accounting for internal variability has also made the availability of initial-condition ensembles, under a specific scenario, important, further increasing the computational demand. At least so far, emulators have been limited to simplified ESM-like output, either seasonal, annual, or decadal averages of basic quantities, like temperature and precipitation, often emulated independently of one another. With this work, we propose a more comprehensive solution to ESM output emulation. Our emulator, STITCHES, uses existing archives of earth system models' (ESMs) scenario experiments to construct ESM-like output under new scenarios or enrich existing initial-condition ensembles, which is what other emulators also aim to do. Importantly, however, STITCHES' output has the same characteristics of the ESM output it sets out to emulate: multivariate, spatially resolved, and high frequency, representing both the forced component and the internal variability around it. STITCHES extends the idea of time sampling – according to which climate outcomes are stratified by the global warming level at which they manifest themselves, irrespective of the scenario and time at which they occur – to the construction of a continuous history of ESM-like output over the whole 21st century, consistent with a 21st-century trajectory of global surface air temperature (GSAT) derived from the scenario that has been chosen as the target of the emulation. STITCHES does so by first splitting the target GSAT trajectory into decade-long windows, then matching each window in turn to a decade-long window within an existing model simulation from the available scenario runs according to its proximity to the target in absolute size of the temperature anomaly and its rate of change. A look-up table is therefore created of a sequence of existing experiment–time-window combinations that, when stitched together, create a GSAT trajectory “similar” to the target. Importantly, we can then stitch together much more than GSAT from these windows, i.e., any output that the ESM has saved for these existing experiment–time-window combinations, at any frequency and spatial scale available in its archive. We show that the stitching does not introduce artifacts in the great majority of cases (we look at temperature and precipitation at monthly frequency and on the native grid of the ESM and at an index of ENSO activity, the Southern Oscillation Index). This is true even if the criteria for the identification of the decades to be stitched together are chosen to work for a smoothed time series of annual GSAT, a result we expect given the larger amount of noise affecting most other variables at finer spatial scales and higher frequencies, which therefore are more “forgiving” of the stitching. We successfully test the method's performance over many ESMs and scenarios. Only a few exceptions surface, but these less-than-optimal outcomes are always associated with a scarcity of the archived simulations from which we can gather the decade-long windows that form the building blocks of the emulated time series. In the great majority of cases, STITCHES' performance is satisfactory according to metrics that reward consistency in trends, interannual and inter-ensemble variance, and autocorrelation structure of the time series stitched together. The method therefore can be used to create ESM-like output according to new scenarios, on the basis of a trajectory of GSAT produced according to that scenario, which could be easily obtained by a simple climate model. It can also be used to increase the size of existing initial-condition ensembles. There are aspects of our emulator that will immediately disqualify it for specific applications, like when climate information is needed whose characteristics result from accumulated quantities over windows of times longer than those used as pieces by STITCHES, droughts longer than a decade for example. But for many applications, we argue that a stitched product can satisfy the climate information needs of impact researchers. STITCHES cannot emulate ESM output from scenarios that result in GSAT trajectories outside of the envelope available in the archive, nor can it emulate trajectories with shapes different from existing ones (overshoots with negative derivative, for example). Therefore, the size and characteristics of the available archives of ESM output are the principal limitations for STITCHES' deployment. Thus, we argue for the possibility of designing scenario experiments within, for example, the next phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project according to new principles, relieved of the need to produce a number of similar trajectories that vary only in radiative forcing strength but more strategically covering the space of temperature anomalies and rates of change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupling coarse-mesh CFD with fine-mesh CFD for modeling molten-salt reactors in the Virtual Test Bed (VTB)

The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims at developing a simulation tool kit to accelerate the development and deployment of nuclear power technologies. NEAMS multiphysics tools have been designed to provide numerical simulation support for the design and licensing of GEN IV reactors. Pronghorn is NEAMS's coarse-mesh computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool, which is designed to run 3D core transients in GEN IV reactors at a reduced computational cost. To increase their accuracy, coarse-mesh CFD simulations require calibrated closure coefficients. One way of computing these coefficients is via the Nek5000, NEAMS's high-fidelity CFD tool. This article discusses our current research lines in informing Pronghorn closure coefficients via Nek5000 to enable multiphysics simulations of the core cavity of the molten-salt fast reactor. We present an application in which Pronghorn mixing length turbulent viscosity has been calibrated from Nek5000 simulations. The resulting Pronghorn thermal-hydraulics model is then coupled to Griffin, the NEAMS neutron transport solver, to solve for the steady-state configuration of the molten-salt fast reactor. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating nationwide coupled disease and fear spread in an agent-based model

Human cognitive responses, behavioral responses, and disease dynamics co-evolve over the course of any disease outbreak, and can result in complex feedbacks. We present a dynamic agent-based model that explicitly couples the spread of disease with the spread of fear surrounding the disease, implemented within the EpiCast simulation framework. EpiCast models transmission within a realistic synthetic population, capturing individual-level interactions. In our model, fear propagates through both in-person contact and broadcast media, prompting individuals to adopt protective behaviors that reduce disease spread. In order to better understand these coupled dynamics, we create and compare a range of compartmental models to ensure that introducing additional disease states does not prevent the emergence of multiple waves in these simpler models. Additionally, we compare a range of behavioral scenarios within EpiCast, varying the level and intensity of fear and behavior change. Our results show that the addition of asymptomatic, exposed, and pre-symptomatic disease states can impact both the rate at which an outbreak progresses and its overall trajectory in compartmental models. In EpiCast, the combination of non-local fear spread via broadcasters and strong behavioral responses by fearful individuals generally leads to multiple epidemic waves, an outcome that occurs only within a narrow parameter range when fear spreads purely through local contact. Accounting for the coupled spread of fear and disease is critical for understanding disease dynamics and designing timely, targeted responses to emerging infectious threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation study of chemo-mechanical impacts of CO 2 injection in morrow b sandstone reservoir

Here, this study investigates the impacts of geomechanical and geochemical changes on carbon storage in a partially depleted oil reservoir, using results from four different coupled simulation models. Models were used to examine the relative importance of storage mechanisms, and how changing reservoir parameters might affect these mechanisms through time. The study uses data from a Morrowan sandstone reservoir in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas which is currently undergoing CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Partially depleted oil reservoirs such as the FWU offer attractive carbon utilization and/or storage targets because of existing infrastructure and economic benefits from incremental oil recovery as well as tax credits. However, prediction of storage capacity or long-term fluid migration in these fields can be difficult because of the wide variation in formation fluids and operational histories that may have undergone. CO 2 injection can cause complex geomechanical and geochemical responses in a reservoir as a result of interplay between dynamic changes in pore pressure, reservoir temperature, fluid composition, and interactions between formation fluids, CO 2 , and reservoir rock. Thus, multiple coupled numerical simulation models must be developed and used to more precisely understand what CO 2 storage mechanisms are most significant, as well as the long-term fate of the stored CO 2 . Our study used results from hydrodynamic, coupled hydro-geomechanical, coupled hydro-geochemical, and coupled hydro-geomechanical-geochemical models to examine how changes in geomechanical and geochemical properties can impact the injectivity or storage capacity of CO 2 . Models simulated historical field operations and then forward-modeled a water-alternate-gas (WAG) operation for 20 years, followed by a 1000-year post-injection monitoring. The work demonstrates that in this specific reservoir, geomechanical impacts appear to be more significant than any geochemical processes, which showed minimal impact on reservoir properties. Furthermore, these simulation scenarios corroborated other studies showing more than 90% of CO 2 injected are being stored and will remain stored in the reservoir. The study was able to draw on a rich set of data from this currently operational project for the work. Because the Morrow is a widespread oil-bearing reservoir in the midcontinent of the United States and is fairly typical of many sandstone reservoirs elsewhere, the study has significance beyond the boundaries of our field area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of Long-Term Geochemical Change in Bentonite Based on the Interpretative THMC Model of the FEBEX In Situ Test

Since nuclear energy is crucial in the decarbonization of the energy supply, one hurdle to remove is the handling of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). Disposal of HLW in a deep geological repository has long been deemed a viable permanent option. In the design of a deep geological repository, compacted bentonite is the most commonly proposed buffer material. Predicting the long-term chemical evolution in bentonite, which is important for the safety assessment of a repository, has been challenging because of the complex coupled processes. Models for large-scale tests and predictions based on such models have been some of the best practices for such purposes. An 18-year-long in situ test with two dismantling events provided a unique set of chemical data that allowed for studying chemical changes in bentonite. In this paper, we first developed coupled thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) models to interpret the geochemical data collected in the in situ test and then extended the THMC model to 200 years to make long-term prediction of the geochemical evolution of bentonite. The interpretive coupled THMC model shows that the geochemical profiles were strongly affected by THM processes such as evaporation/condensation, porosity change caused by swelling, permeability change, and the shape of concentration profiles for major cations were largely controlled by transport processes, but concentration levels were regulated by chemical reactions, and the profiles of some species such as pH, bicarbonate, and sulfate were dominated by these reactions. The long-term THMC model showed that heating prolongs the time that bentonite becomes fully saturated in the area close to the heater/canister; however, once the bentonite becomes fully saturated, high concentrations of ions in bentonite near the heater, which was observed in the field test, will disappear; illitization continues for 50 years but will not proceed further.

Zheng, Liange↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Atmosphere and Ocean Horizontal Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone and Upper-Ocean Response Forecasts in Four Major Hurricanes

A coupled atmosphere–ocean model is necessary for tropical cyclone (TC) prediction to accurately characterize ocean feedback on atmospheric processes within the TC environment. Here, the ECMWF coupled global model is run at horizontal resolutions from 9 to 1.4 km in the atmosphere, as well as 25 and 8 km in the ocean, to identify how resolution impacts forecast accuracy of four observed major TCs in the Atlantic: Irma, Florence, Teddy, and Ida. Most of the resolutions used here are unprecedented for global models. GOES-16 and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images and best track data are used for atmospheric validation. Salinity and temperature observations from Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observer (ALAMO) floats are used to validate modeled upper-ocean response, including mixed layer deepening, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial waves in the wakes of TCs. Increasing atmospheric resolution leads to more realistic TC structure and stronger winds, significantly improving TC intensity forecasts and modestly improving track errors. Ocean resolution impacts the upper-ocean response but does not influence atmospheric forecasts for the fast-moving TCs considered here. Stronger mixing, sea surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillations are found for both higher atmosphere and ocean resolutions, provided the initial upper-ocean state is the same for the two ocean resolutions. Whether this agrees better with the ALAMO observations also depends on the realism of the initial upper-ocean state in the model, emphasizing the importance of ocean initialization for the accurate upper-ocean response. Overall, the model at all resolutions correctly predicts stronger mixing, surface cooling, and near-inertial oscillation amplitudes to the right of a TC center, as observed by ALAMO floats.

Atmosphere-ocean interaction↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards multiscale modeling of ocean surface turbulent mixing using coupled MPAS-Ocean v6.3 and PALM v5.0

A multiscale modeling approach for studying the ocean surface turbulent mixing is explored by coupling an ocean general circulation model (GCM) MPAS-Ocean with the Parallelized Large Eddy Simulation Model (PALM). The coupling approach is similar to the superparameterization approach that has been used to represent the effects of deep convection in atmospheric GCMs. However, the focus of this multiscale modeling approach is on the small-scale turbulent mixing and their interactions with the larger-scale processes in the ocean, so that a more flexible coupling strategy is used. To reduce the computational cost, a customized version of PALM is ported on the general-purpose graphics processing unit (GPU) with OpenACC, achieving 10–16 times overall speedup as compared to running on a single CPU. Even with the GPU-acceleration technique, a superparameterization-like approach to represent the ocean surface turbulent mixing in GCMs using embedded high fidelity and three-dimensional large eddy simulations (LESs) over the global ocean is still computationally intensive and infeasible for long simulations. However, running PALM regionally on selected MPAS-Ocean grid cells is shown to be a promising approach moving forward. The flexible coupling between MPAS-Ocean and PALM allows further exploration of the interactions between the ocean surface turbulent mixing and larger-scale processes, as well as future development and improvement of ocean surface turbulent mixing parameterizations for GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use Cases and Model Development of Thermal Storage Coupling for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

This report discusses the different options for coupling thermal energy storage (TES) systems to advanced nuclear power plants (A-NPPs) in order to enable flexible and hybrid plant operation. An advanced light-water reactor (ALWR) and a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) were selected as the initial use cases for demonstrating a thermally balanced energy storage coupling design for thermal power extraction. Cost functions for the A-LWR were derived from the fully balanced models that were developed based on three different coupling options with three different thermal energy bypass ratios. For the next steps, cost functions for the HTGR will also be derived, and additional nuclear reactors (e.g., a liquid-cooled fast reactor [LFR] or molten-salt reactor [MSR]) will be evaluated for coupling with TES in similar fashion, including the evaluation of their steady-state condition models and cost functions. The models presented herein showcase several design considerations, focusing on optimal deployment methodologies for achieving steady-state operation with minimum disruption to the nuclear power generation cycle. This report presents the results of steady state models developed using Aspen HYSYS®, wherein the thermal energy bypass for an NPP-TES coupling was varied up to 50%. The various components were sized using Aspen Process Economic Analyzer (APEA) and Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR), when applicable. Cost functions from these models were developed using the latest publicly available data obtained from APEA V11. The current steady-state models and cost functions provide a baseline for additional work focusing on dynamic operation and process optimization by using Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tools to evaluate the technoeconomic viability and transient operations of TES-coupled A-NPPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Verification and Validation of a Magnetic Plasma Fluid Model Utilizing the MOOSE (Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment) Framework

As the goal of achieving fusion power on the grid comes closer to fruition, fully coupled multiphysics models of fusion devices will be crucial. Currently, there are two main approaches to developing these platforms: (1) loosely coupled, where one couples existing codes and solvers together through input and output parameters and data, and (2) tightly coupled, where one develops the necessary models within a singular, integrated framework. This work focuses on the latter approach for magnetically confined fusion devices by developing a fluid-based plasma-edge model within the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Framework. This effort is coordinated with other efforts to develop, test, demonstrate, and deploy fusion relevant multiphysics capabilities including electromagnetics, particle-in-cell plasma, tritium transport, and fusion blanket design. This new model is an expansion of the MOOSE-based plasma application, Zapdos, which was originally formulated to model low-temperature, non-magnetized plasma processes. Verification, benchmarking, and validation studies have been conducted. Verification studies involved utilizing the method of manufactured solutions and comparing the convergence slope of a known solution to the theoretical slope. Benchmarking consists of comparisons to existing edge codes, namely BOUT++ and SOLEDGE3X. Validation efforts focused on comparisons against open-source data from the TCV tokamak.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗