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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Improving Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea‐Level Change Through 2300 by Capturing Gravitational, Rotational, and Deformational Effects

Ice-mass change induces regionally varying patterns of sea-level change due to gravitational, rotational, and deformational (GRD) effects, which in turn influence marine-based ice stability in Antarctica. For improved projection of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), there is a need for including GRD effects in modeling and improving understanding of basin-by-basin sensitivity of ice evolution to GRD effects under a range of climate scenarios. We couple a high-resolution, higher-order ice-sheet model with a 1D global sea-level model that fully captures GRD effects, and simulate ice evolution in Antarctica under the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 experiments. We perform two sets of coupled simulations incorporating 1D Maxwell solid Earth structure suitable for West and East Antarctica and show that the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica has the highest sensitivity to GRD effects—in high-emission scenarios, grounding-line retreat accelerates by hundreds of kilometers by 2300 without GRD effects, but GRD effects delay this retreat on a timescale of decades. However, we find that delay times do not show a clear relationship to the strength of climate forcing alone. Furthermore, GRD effects can influence ice-sheet dynamics more than the choice of climate model for a given emissions scenario. In contrast, East Antarctica exhibits minimal sensitivity to GRD effects throughout the study period. These findings underscore the critical role of GRD effects in shaping future West AIS evolution, highlighting the importance of constraining the regional 3D Earth structure and bed topography in West Antarctica, particularly the ASE.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Reducing Spread in Climate Model Projections of a September Ice-Free Arctic

This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to approx. 1.7 million sq km in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million sq km) in 2054-2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to approx.1.7 million sq km in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2022

Changes in Anthropogenic Precursor Emissions Drive Shifts in the Ozone Seasonal Cycle Throughout the Northern Midlatitude Troposphere

Simulations by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Earth system models indicate that the seasonal cycle of baseline tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes has been shifting since the mid-20th century. Beginning in ∼ 1940, the magnitude of the seasonal cycle increased by ∼10 ppb (measured from seasonal minimum to maximum), and the seasonal maximum shifted to later in the year by about 3 weeks. This shift maximized in the mid-1980s, followed by a reversal – the seasonal cycle decreased in amplitude and the maximum shifted back to earlier in the year. Similar changes are seen in measurements collected from the 1970s to the present. The timing of the seasonal cycle changes is generally concurrent with the rise and fall of anthropogenic emissions that followed industrialization and the subsequent implementation of air quality emission controls. A quantitative comparison of the temporal changes in the ozone seasonal cycle at sites in both Europe and North America with the temporal changes in ozone precursor emissions across the northern midlatitudes found a high degree of similarity between these two temporal patterns. We hypothesize that changing precursor emissions are responsible for the shift in the ozone seasonal cycle; this is supported by the absence of such seasonal shifts in southern midlatitudes where anthropogenic emissions are much smaller. We also suggest a mechanism by which changing emissions drive the changing seasonal cycle: increasing emissions of NOx allow summertime photochemical production of ozone to become more important than ozone transported from the stratosphere, and increasing volatile organic compounds (VOCs) lead to progressively greater photochemical ozone production in the summer months, thereby increasing the amplitude of the seasonal ozone cycle. Decreasing emissions of both precursor classes then reverse these changes. The quantitative parameter values that characterize the seasonal shifts provide useful benchmarks for evaluating model simulations, both against observations and between models.

Ozone↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ferrimagnetic spin waves in honeycomb and triangular layers of Mn{sub 3}Si{sub 2}Te{sub 6}.

A detailed analysis of the ferrimagnetic ground state of Mn 3 Si 2 Te 6 has been performed using inelastic neutron scattering. Although the proposed valence of the nominal Mn 2+ ions would have quenched orbital angular momentum, a significant exchange anisotropy exists in Mn 3 Si 2 Te 6 . This apparent exchange anisotropy is a manifestation of a weak spin-orbit coupling in the layered material. We employ a detailed simulation of the spin-wave spectrum coupling traditional refinement of dispersion parameters to image analysis techniques, while including Monte Carlo simulations of the instrumental resolution to accurately identify the exchange couplings to the third nearest neighbor. An independent validation of our results is made by comparing our final Hamiltonian to heat capacity measurements.

Sala, G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation of Compound Flooding Using River‐Ocean Two‐Way Coupled E3SM Ensemble on Variable‐Resolution Meshes

Abstract Coastal zone compound flooding (CF) can be caused by the interactive fluvial and oceanic processes, particularly when coastal backwater propagates upstream and interacts with high river discharge. The modeling of CF is limited in existing Earth System Models (ESMs) due to coarse mesh resolutions and one‐way coupled river‐ocean components. In this study, we present a novel multi‐scale coupling framework within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), integrating global atmosphere and land with interactively coupled river and ocean models using different meshes with refined resolutions near the coastline. To evaluate this framework, we conducted ensemble simulations of a CF event (Hurricane Irene in 2011) in a Mid‐Atlantic estuary. The results demonstrate that the novel E3SM configuration can reasonably reproduce river discharge and sea surface height variations. The two‐way river‐ocean coupling improves the representation of coastal backwater effects at the terrestrial‐aquatic interface that are caused by the combined actions of tide and storm surge during the CF event, thus providing a valuable modeling tool for better understanding the river‐estuary‐ocean dynamics in extreme events under climate change. Notably, our results show that the most significant CF impacts occur when the highest storm surge generated by a tropical cyclone meets with a moderate river discharge. This study highlights the state‐of‐the‐art advancements developed within E3SM for simulating multi‐scale coastal processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling Surface Flow with High-performance Subsurface Reactive Flow and Transport Code PFLOTRAN

Water exchange between the surface and subsurface is important for both water resource management and environmental protection. In this paper, we develop coupled surface and subsurface flow simulation capability in a parallel subsurface flow and reactive transport code PFLOTRAN. We sequentially couple the diffusion wave-based surface flow with the subsurface flow governedby the Richards equation in PFLOTRAN. These two flow domains are linked with a boundary condition switching method that ensures continuity of pressure and flux at the surface-subsurface interface. We verify the coupled code against other existing hydrologic models and observation data using a number of numerical experiments. The coupled hydrological model exhibits good performance in strong parallel scaling tests. The new coupled surface and subsurface simulator significantly advance community simulation capability towards improving integrated hydrologic and biogeochemical understanding of complex systems such as watersheds and river corridors. Keywords: Surface flow, Integrated hydrological modeling, Boundary condition switching, Parallel computing

Wu, Runjian↗
NASA NTRS2018

Air-Sea Interactions in a High-Resolution Ocean-Atmosphere Simulation

During the past few years the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have produced, respectively, global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing. These simulations have proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies. Nevertheless, a key limitation of these "nature" simulations is the lack of interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, which limits their usefulness for studying air-sea interactions and for designing observing missions to study these interactions. We present here results from a coupled GEOS-MIT "nature run" simulation, wherein we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. A particular focus of the comparisons is the coupled versus uncoupled differences in interactions between Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and ocean surface wind. We discuss, in particular, a several-day mode of temporal variability in the SST-wind cycle and how it is represented in the different model simulations and in observationally-based products. A mechanism for the cycle, which is driven by SST-wind feedback, is proposed.

Strobach, Ehud↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vacancy Mediated Electrooxidation of 5‐Hydroxymethyl Furfuryl Using Defect Engineered Layered Double Hydroxide Electrocatalysts

Abstract Electrochemical biomass oxidation coupled with hydrogen evolution offers a promising route to generate value‐added chemicals and clean energy. The complex adsorption behavior of 5‐hydroxymethyl furfural (HMF) and hydroxyl ions (OH − ) on the electrocatalyst surface during HMF electrooxidation reaction (HMFOR) necessitates an in‐depth understanding of active sites available for adsorption. Herein, oxygen vacancy (V O ) defects are introduced in NiFe layered double hydroxide (LDH) using Ce dopants to manipulate electronic structure. Synchrotron‐based HE‐XRD and XAS indicate negligible V O in La‐doped NiFe while Ce doping leads to V O defects due to flexible Ce redox (Ce 3+ ↔ Ce 4+ ). The V O ‐rich Ce‐NiFe exhibits higher Faradic efficiency of ≈90% to produce 2,5‐furan dicarboxylic acid (FDCA), far greater than ≈60% for NiFe V O in Ce‐NiFe act as alternative active sites for OH − adsorption, hence reducing adsorption competition for the same metal sites. DFT calculation results corroborate experimental findings by showcasing that the presence of V O in Ce‐NiFe manipulates the adsorption energies and facilitates the chemical adsorption OH − in V O to improve HMFOR. In situ HE‐XRD derived pair distribution function coupled to RMC simulations confirm OH − trapping in V O and HMF adsorption on metal centers as evident by interlayer distance evolution. Taken together, this work showcases routes for dual‐site electrocatalyst design for improved biomass electrooxidation.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing CO 2 Transport Across a PEEK‐Ionene Membrane and Water‐Lean Solvent Interface

Abstract Efficient direct air capture (DAC) of CO 2 will require strategies to deal with the relatively low concentration in the atmosphere. One such strategy is to employ the combination of a CO 2 ‐selective membrane coupled with a CO 2 capture solvent acting as a draw solution. Here, the interactions between a leading water‐lean carbon‐capture solvent, a polyether ether ketone (PEEK)‐ionene membrane, CO 2 , and combinations were probed using advanced NMR techniques coupled with advanced simulations. We identify the speciation and dynamics of the solvent, membrane, and CO 2 , presenting spectroscopic evidence of CO 2 diffusion through benzylic regions within the PEEK‐ionene membrane, not spaces in the ionic lattice as expected. Our results demonstrate that water‐lean capture solvents provide a thermodynamic and kinetic funnel to draw CO 2 from the air through the membrane and into the bulk solvent, thus enhancing the performance of the membrane. The reaction between the carbon‐capture solvent and CO 2 produces carbamic acid, disrupting interactions between the imidazolium (Im + ) cations and the bistriflimide anions within the PEEK‐ionene membrane, thereby creating structural changes through which CO 2 can diffuse more readily. Consequently, this restructuring results in CO 2 diffusion at the interface that is faster than CO 2 diffusion in the bulk carbon‐capture solvent.

Walter, Eric D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coupled chemical–CFD modeling of unsealed dry storage of advanced test reactor spent fuel

We report given the current lack of long-term disposal for spent nuclear fuel storage in the United States, the current inventory of advanced test reactor (ATR) fuel at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is expected to be stored in a dry storage facility for an extended storage period. As part of an effort to understand the conditions during a 50-year period, a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) of the unsealed canisters packed with spent fuel in the storage facility was constructed, this CFD model is coupled with radiolytic chemical reactions associated with water vapor and other species. The coupled model is simulated over a range of sensitivity parameters for the fuel decay heat, relative humidity, and oxyhydroxide film thickness for undried and fully-dried fuel. The most important parameter was the initial fuel decay heat. Over the range of cases, the hydrogen and nitric acid concentrations are low enough no significant impact is expected.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of the REE 3+ aqua ions and chloride species in aqueous fluids by in situ Raman spectroscopy using perturbations of the water band

Acidic NaCl-rich aqueous fluids play a crucial role in forming hydrothermal rare earth elements (REE) mineral deposits. Aqueous REE mobility is mostly controlled by the stabilities of REE 3+ and REE chloride species. Our current knowledge of REE speciation is based on solubility data, thermodynamic models and in situ spectroscopic measurements, sometimes coupled with molecular simulations. Here, in this study, we investigate Nd and Yb speciation in pH2 Cl-bearing solutions at 25 °C and 0.1 MPa with variable Cl/REE ratios using Raman Spectroscopy in solutions with 0.1 to 0.6 mol/kg NdCl 3 or YbCl 3 and 0.2 to 3.2 mol/kg NaCl. Due to the challenges in resolving the REE-Cl band, we developed a new method using the water vibrational mode and multivariate curve resolution (MCR) analysis. The Raman spectra for the vibrational band of water (2700 to 3900 cm –1 ) were collected at 25 °C and fitted by three Gaussian sub-peaks, then quantified using MCR analysis to de-convolute the water band into bulk H 2 O and the perturbations caused by of Cl – , REE 3+ , and REE chloride species. REE speciation based on the perturbations of the water band indicates that REE 3+ aqua ions dominate acidic solutions at 25 °C, but up to ~20 mol% YbCl 2+ forms at high YbCl 3 concentrations. The new method is promising for quantifying in situ speciation of the REE 3+ aqua ions and REE chloride species in aqueous fluids while providing information on the hydration of ions. This method improves our molecular level understanding of REE aqueous species stability and their role in REE mobilization during fluid-rock interaction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

QUIC-URB and QUIC-fire extension to complex terrain: Development of a terrain-following coordinate system

Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by CFD-based models like FIRETEC and WFDS because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage LES approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, typical for instance of the Western United States. In this paper, we describe the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. In particular, the paper presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captured the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. We report the model agreed well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimated speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field was obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire–atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain was highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect was addressed in this work). Results highlight that future work should focus on the implementation of parameterizations of wake-eddies, similar to QUIC-URB’s building parameterizations, and on thermodynamic-driven flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Heavy and light flavor jet quenching in heavy-ion collisions in a perturbative QCD approach

In this work, we study the flavor dependence of jet quenching in heavy-ion collisions. A next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD framework is applied to account for both quark and gluon contributions to light and heavy flavor hadron productions. A linear Boltzmann transport model coupled to hydrodynamic simulation is utilized to study the nuclear modification of heavy and light flavor jets in the dynamically evolving quark-gluon plasma. Within our jet quenching framework, we obtain a nice description of the nuclear modification factors of charged hadrons, D mesons, B mesons and B–decayed D mesons over a wide range of transverse momentum (8-300 GeV). Our result shows that perturbative QCD is sufficient to explain the color, mass and energy dependence of parton energy loss and jet quenching in heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Iron Impurity Impairs the CO 2 Capture Performance of MgO: Insights from Microscopy and Machine Learning Molecular Dynamics

Magnesium oxide (MgO) is a promising sorbent for direct air capture (DAC) of carbon dioxide. Iron (Fe) is a common impurity in naturally occurring MgO and minerals used to produce MgO, yet a molecular-scale understanding of Fe-doping effects on carbonation is lacking. Here, in this study, we observed reduced carbonation performance in Fe-doped MgO experimentally. The energetics of adsorbing a (bi)carbonate ion on pristine and Fe-doped MgO(001) surfaces were further investigated using ab initio and machine learning potential molecular dynamics coupled with metadynamics simulations. Both pristine and Fe-doped surfaces exhibited a basic (OH – ) hydration layer, where the (bi)carbonate ion adsorption is thermodynamically favorable. However, the dissolution of surface Fe had smaller energy barriers and was more favorable than Mg. Leached Fe likely neutralized the near-surface basicity, yielding reduced reactivity on Fe-doped MgO. Our observations offer critical insights for material selection and emphasize the importance of evaluating the geologic origin of earth materials used for DAC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atomic-Scale Dynamics of Five-Fold Twin Mediated Coalescence: Pathway-Dependent and Defect-Governed Nonclassical Growth Mechanisms

Defective crystals with distinct properties have been discovered in many systems. However, the growth mechanism of defective crystals is still poorly understood. Here, in this work, using a 5-fold twinned gold (Au) nanocrystal (NC) as a model system, three new coalescence pathways involving detwinning or twinning have been uncovered through atomic-scale dynamic observations in an aberration-corrected transmission electron microscope coupled with atomistic simulations. This demonstrates that beyond crystal size, coalescence growth dynamics involving 5-fold twins (5-FTs) are highly dependent on crystal defect density and the approach pathways of the crystals. When a 5-FT encounters a smaller 5-FT or a smaller NC in a face-to-face way, a new, larger 5-FT is produced at a relatively fast coalescence growth rate; while in a corner-to-corner way, the coalescence dynamics are more retarded and sluggish, which is conducive to the formation of complex multitwined structures rather than 5-FTs. This highlights that the planar defect density and crystal approach pathway influence the coalescence dynamics of crystals containing 5-FT. Moreover, a column-by-column grain boundary (GB) migration mechanism, which results in bent GBs, was also unveiled during the crystal coalescence process. These results enrich the general understanding of the crystal growth theory and provide new insights into the controllable fabrication of 5-FTs by crystal coalescence mechanisms.

crystallization↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1

Abstract The present study examines the characteristics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) events represented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), DOE’s new Earth system model. The coupled E3SMv1 realistically simulates the eastward propagation of precipitation and moist static energy (MSE) anomalies associated with the MJO. As in observations, horizontal moisture advection and longwave radiative feedback are found to be the dominant processes in E3SMv1 that lead to the eastward movement and maintenance of the MJO MSE anomalies, respectively. Modulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation in the Maritime Continent region by the MJO is also well represented in the model despite systematic biases in the magnitude and phase of the precipitation diurnal cycle. On the MJO impact over the midlatitude, E3SMv1 reasonably captures the pattern of the MJO teleconnections across the North Pacific and North America, with improvement in the performance in a high‐resolution version, despite the magnitude being a bit weaker than the observed. Regarding the interannual variability of the MJO, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of the zonal extent of MJO’s eastward propagation, as well as associated changes in the mean state moisture gradient in the tropical west Pacific, are well reproduced in the model. However, MJO in E3SMv1 exhibits no sensitivity to the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO), with the MJO propagation characteristics being almost identical between easterly QBO and westerly QBO years. Processes that have been suggested as critical to MJO simulation are also examined by utilizing recently developed process‐oriented diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗