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Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016

In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. A strength of the comparison is a focus on the spatial distribution of a wider range of aerosol composition and optical properties than has been done previously. The sparse airborne observations are aggregated into approximately 2° grid boxes and into three vertical layers: 3–6 km, the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the cloud-topped marine boundary layer. Simulated aerosol extensive properties suggest that the flight-day observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30 % or less. Evaluation against observations indicates that all models have strengths and weaknesses, and there is no single model that is superior to all the others in all metrics evaluated. Whereas all six models typically place the top of the smoke layer within 0–500 m of the airborne lidar observations, the models tend to place the smoke layer bottom 300–1400 m lower than the observations. A spatial pattern emerges, in which most models underestimate the mean of most smoke quantities (black carbon, extinction, carbon monoxide) on the diagonal corridor between 16° S, 6° E, and 10° S, 0° E, in the 3–6 km layer, and overestimate them further south, closer to the coast, where less aerosol is present. Model representations of the above-cloud aerosol optical depth differ more widely. Most models overestimate the organic aerosol mass concentrations relative to those of black carbon, and with less skill, indicating model uncertainties in secondary organic aerosol processes. Regional-mean free-tropospheric model ambient single scattering albedos vary widely, between 0.83 and 0.93 compared with in situ dry measurements centered at 0.86, despite minimal impact of humidification on particulate scattering. The modeled ratios of the particulate extinction to the sum of the black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations (a mass extinction efficiency proxy) are typically too low and vary too little spatially, with significant inter-model differences. Most models overestimate the carbonaceous mass within the offshore boundary layer. Overall, the diversity in the model biases suggests that different model processes are responsible. The wide range of model optical properties requires further scrutiny because of their importance for radiative effect estimates.

Yohei Shinozuka↗

Continuation of tailored composite structures of ordered staple thermoplastic material

The search for the cost effective composite structure has motivated the investigation of several approaches to develop composite structure from innovative material forms. Among the promising approaches is the conversion of a planar sheet to components of complex curvature through sheet forming or stretch forming. In both cases, the potential for material stretch in the fiber direction appears to offer a clear advantage in formability over continuous fiber systems. A framework was established which allows the simulation of the anisotropic mechanisms of deformation of long discontinuous fiber laminates wherein the matrix phase is a viscous fluid. Predictions for the effective viscosities of a hyper-anisotropic medium consisting of collimated, discontinuous fibers suspended in viscous matrix were extended to capture the characteristics of typical polymers including non-Newtonian behavior and temperature dependence. In addition, the influence of fiber misorientation was also modeled by compliance averaging to determine ensemble properties for a given orientation distribution. A design tool is presented for predicting the effect of material heterogeneity on the performance of curved composite beams such as those used in aircraft fuselage structures. Material heterogeneity can be induced during manufacturing processes such as sheet forming and stretch forming of thermoplastic composites. This heterogeneity can be introduced in the form of fiber realignment and spreading during the manufacturing process causing radial and tangential gradients in material properties. Two analysis procedures are used to solve the beam problems. The first method uses separate two-dimensional elasticity solutions for the stresses in the flange and web sections of the beam. The separate solutions are coupled by requiring that forces and displacements match section boundaries. The second method uses an approximate Rayleigh-Ritz technique to find the solutions for more complex beams. Analyses are performed for curved beams of various cross-sections loaded in pure bending and with a uniform distributed load. Preliminary results show that the geometry of the beam dictates the effect of heterogeneity on performance. The role of heterogeneity is larger in beams with a small average radius-to-depth ration, R/t, where R is the average radius of the beam and t is the difference between the inside and outside radii. Results of the anlysis are in the form of stresses and displacements and are compared to both mechanics of materials and numerical solutions obtained using finite element analysis.

Santare, Michael H.↗

On the Emitted Dust Size Distribution and Its Variability: Insights From A Field Campaign in an Ephemeral Lake of the Lower Drâa Valley, Moroccan Sahara

During the last decades the emitted particle size distribution (PSD) of dust and its variability have been actively discussed due to their effects on the Earth System. Some frameworks support a higher proportion of aggregate’s fragmentation as wind speed increases, while others suggest the PSD independence of wind speed and soil properties, at least up to ~10 µm. Constraining the size-resolved dust emission and its variability is key to reduce the uncertainty of Earth system models, but still requires further analysis. The ERC project FRAGMENT addresses these and other issues related to dust emission, dust mineralogical composition and its effects upon climate. In this context we conducted a one month field campaign in September 2019 at L’Bour, an ephemeral lake located in the Lower Drâa Valley, resulting in a detailed description of the soil, dust emission and meteorology. During the campaign saltation and dust emission were very frequent under two prevailing wind directions. Friction velocity varied around 0.15 ms⁻¹, with peaks close to 0.4 ms⁻¹, except for a peak of 0.6 ms⁻¹ coinciding with the arrival of one of the moist convective storms or haboobs that occurred during this period. We study the near-surface concentration and diffusive flux PSDs along with their variability up to ~19 µm in optical diameter (~21 µm in geometric dust diameter). As expected, we find significant differences between the concentration and diffusive flux PSDs, with the latter showing a higher proportion of coarse and super-coarse particles. Our results also highlight dependencies of the PSDs with friction velocity, wind direction, and type of event (regular events vs haboob outflow events). We first discuss the potential origin of the variations and dependencies, which include 1) differences in fetch and surface between directions, 2) dry deposition of coarse and super-coarse dust depending on friction velocity, 3) more disaggregation with increasing friction velocity, and 4) the effect of the haboob gust front. Our calculations show the influence of dry deposition upon the diffusive flux PSDs. We finally compare our PSDs with brittle fragmentation theory, both with the original 2011 formulation using optical diameters, and with the more recent 2022 formulation including the emission of super-coarse dust and using geometric diameters.

particle size distribution↗

A New Theory of Nucleate Pool Boiling in Arbitrary Gravity

Heat transfer rates specific to nucleate pool boiling under various conditions are determined by the dynamics of vapour bubbles that are originated and grow at nucleation sites of a superheated surface. A new dynamic theory of these bubbles has been recently developed on the basis of the thermodynamics of irreversible processes. In contrast to other existing models based on empirically postulated equations for bubble growth and motion, this theory does not contain unwarrantable assumptions, and both the equations are rigorously derived within the framework of a unified approach. The conclusions of the theory are drastically different from those of the conventional models. The bubbles are shown to detach themselves under combined action of buoyancy and a surface tension force that is proven to add to buoyancy in bubble detachment, but not the other way round as is commonly presumed. The theory ensures a sound understanding of a number of so far unexplained phenomena, such as effect caused by gravity level and surface tension on the bubble growth rate and dependence of the bubble characteristics at detachment on the liquid thermophysical parameters and relevant temperature differences. The theoretical predictions are shown to be in a satisfactory qualitative and quantitative agreement with observations. When being applied to heat transfer at nucleate pool boiling, this bubble dynamic theory offers an opportunity to considerably improve the main formulae that are generally used to correlate experimental findings and to design boiling heat removal in various industrial applications. Moreover, the theory makes possible to pose and study a great deal of new problems of essential impact in practice. Two such problems are considered in detail. One problem concerns the development of a principally novel physical model for the first crisis of boiling. This model allows for evaluating critical boiling heat fluxes under various conditions, and in particular at different gravity levels, with a good agreement with experimental evidence. The other problem bears upon equilibrium shapes of a detached bubble near a heated surface in exceedingly low gravity. In low gravity or in weightlessness, the bubble can remain in the close vicinity of the surface for a long time, and its shape is greatly affected by the Marangoni effect due to both temperature and possible surfactant concentration being nonuniform along the interface. The bubble performs at these conditions like a heat pipe, with evaporation at the bubble lower boundary and condensation at its upper boundary, and ultimately ensures a substantial increase in heat removal as compared with that in normal gravity. Some other problems relevant to nucleate pool and forced convection boiling heat transfer are also discussed.

Buyevich, Y. A.↗

Dispersed ion structures at the poleward edge of the auroral oval: Low-altitude observations and numerical modeling

We have compared the AUREOL 3 (A3) observations of auroral ion precipitation, particularly ion beams, with the results from the global kinetic model of magnetotail plasma of Ashour-Abdalla et al. (1993). We have identified 101 energetic keV H(+) velocity dispersed precipitating ion structures (VDIS) with fluxes above 10(exp -3) ergs./sq cm./s in the A3 record between the end of 1981 and mid-1984. These beams display a systematic increase in energy with increasing latitude and were observed in a narrow region within less than 1 deg in latitude of the polar cap boundary. The VDIS are the most distinctive feature in the auroral zone of the plasma sheet boundary layer. We report first on a statistical analysis of the possible ralationships between magnetic activity or substorm phase and the VDIS properties. Our particle simulations of the precipitating ions have been extended by using a series of modified versions of the Tsyganenko (1989) magnetic field model and by varying the cross-magnetosphere electric field. In the simulations, plasma from a mantle source is subject to strong nonlinear acceleration, forming beams which flow along the PSBL. Only 3 to 4% of these beams precipitate into the ionosphere to form the VDIS while the majority return to the equatorial plane after mirroring and form the thermalized central plasma sheet. The final energy and the dispersion of the beams in the model depend on the amplitude of the cross-tail electric field. Two unsual observations of low-energy (less than 5 keV) O(+) VDIS, shifted by 4 deg 5 deg in invariant latitude equatorward of H(+) VDIS are analyzed in detail. The sparsity of such O(+) events and the absence of the changes in the flux and frequency of occurrence indicate a solar wind origin for the plasma. Finally, large-scale kinetic modeling, even with its simplifications and assumptions (e.g., static magnetic field, solar wind source), reproduces low-altitude auroral ion features fairly well; it may therefore be presented as an appropriate framework into which data on energization and transport of the hot plasma, obtained in the equatorial plane, could be inserted in the near future.

Bosqued, J. M.↗

Hyperspectral Microwave Atmospheric Sounder (HyMAS) Architecture and Design Accommodations

The Hyperspectral Microwave Atmospheric Sounder (HyMAS) is being developed at Lincoln Laboratories and accommodated by the Goddard Space Flight Center for a flight opportunity on a NASA research aircraft. The term "hyperspectral microwave" is used to indicate an all-weather sounding that performs equivalent to hyperspectral infrared sounders in clear air with vertical resolution of approximately 1 km. Deploying the HyMAS equipped scanhead with the existing Conical Scanning Microwave Imaging Radiometer (CoSMIR) shortens the path to a flight demonstration. Hyperspectral microwave is achieved through the use of independent RF antennas that sample the volume of the Earth s atmosphere through various levels of frequencies, thereby producing a set of dense, spaced vertical weighting functions. The simulations proposed for HyMAS 118/183-GHz system should yield surface precipitation rate and water path retrievals for small hail, soft hail, or snow pellets, snow, rainwater, etc. with accuracies comparable to those of the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder. Further improvements in retrieval methodology (for example, polarization exploitation) are expected. The CoSMIR instrument is a packaging concept re-used on HyMAS to ease the integration features of the scanhead. The HyMAS scanhead will include an ultra-compact Intermediate Frequency Processor (IFP) module that is mounted inside the door to improve thermal management. The IFP is fabricated with materials made of Low-Temperature Co-fired Ceramic (LTCC) technology integrated with detectors, amplifiers, A/D conversion and data aggregation. The IFP will put out 52 channels of 16 bit data comprised of 4-9 channel data streams for temperature profiles and 2-8 channel streams for water vapor. With the limited volume of the existing CoSMIR scanhead and new HyMAS front end components, the HyMAS team at Goddard began preliminary layout work inside the new drum. Importing and re-using models of the shell, the scan head computer, and the slip rings developed for CoSMIR was the starting point. The next step was to modify the antenna faceplate to accommodate the dimensions of the three dual polarization Gaussian Optics Antenna (GOA) assemblies. Two mechanical concepts for the core technology, the hyperspectral IFP, were captured in a design tradeoff. Connector models considered minimum bend radii for the IFP analog connectors. Hyperspectral imaging is accomplished by strategically using a short wavelength intermediate frequency of 18-29 GHz, and thus reducing the size of components in the connection of the front end to the IFP. The SMK (2.92mm) Series connector will lay near the hinge line to minimize its flexing. The digital output of the IFP will use a Serial Peripheral Interface (SPI) that must be accommodated by the scan head computer. To make that computer more reliable, maintainable, and forward compatible with the 52 HyMAS channels, a testbed of the scan head, calibration, and archive computers and the PIC24 microprocessor that resides on the IFP is in development. The computers will be programmed using a new framework application called Interoperable Remote Component (IRC). This software allows flexibility to program computers that communicate with each other and can adapt easily to the emerging HyMAS requirements for data format, algorithms, and graphical user interface (GUI). It is expected that the CoSMIR instrument will cut over to the IRC after it is adapted on an updated CoSMIR testbed.

Hilliard, Lawrence↗

The Muscles Treasury Survey. I. Motivation and Overview

Ground- and space-based planet searches employing radial velocity techniques and transit photometry have detected thousands of planet-hosting stars in the Milky Way. With so many planets discovered, the next step toward identifying potentially habitable planets is atmospheric characterization. While the Sun-Earth system provides a good framework for understanding the atmospheric chemistry of Earth-like planets around solar-type stars, the observational and theoretical constraints on the atmospheres of rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) around low-mass stars (K and M dwarfs) are relatively few. The chemistry of these atmospheres is controlled by the shape and absolute flux of the stellar spectral energy distribution (SED), however, flux distributions of relatively inactive low-mass stars are poorly understood at present. To address this issue, we have executed a panchromatic (X-ray to mid-IR) study of the SEDs of 11 nearby planet-hosting stars, the Measurements of the Ultraviolet Spectral Characteristics of Low-mass Exoplanetary Systems (MUSCLES) Treasury Survey. The MUSCLES program consists visible observations from Hubble and ground-based observatories. Infrared and astrophysically inaccessible wavelengths (EUV and Lyalpha) are reconstructed using stellar model spectra to fill in gaps in the observational data. In this overview and the companion papers describing the MUSCLES survey, we show that energetic radiation (X-ray and ultraviolet) is present from magnetically active stellar atmospheres at all times for stars as late as M6. The emission line luminosities of C IV and Mg II are strongly correlated with band-integrated luminosities and we present empirical relations that can be used to estimate broadband FUV and XUV (is equivalent to X-ray + EUV) fluxes from individual stellar emission line measurements. We find that while the slope of the SED, FUV/NUV, increases by approximately two orders of magnitude form early K to late M dwarfs (approximately equal 0.01-1), the absolute FUV and XUV flux levels at their corresponding HZ distances are constant to within factors of a few, spanning the range 10-70 erg per (sq cm) s in the HZ. Despite the lack of strong stellar activity indicators in their optical spectra, several of the M dwarfs in our sample show spectacular UV flare emission in their light curves. We present an example with flare/quiescent ultraviolet flux ratios of the order of 100:1 where the transition region energy output during the flare is comparable to the total quiescent luminosity of the star E(sub flare)(UV) approximately 0.3 L(sub *) delta (t) (delta t = 1 s). Finally, we interpret enhanced L(line)/L(sub Bol) ratios for C IV and N V as tentative observational evidence for the interaction of planets with large planetary mass-to-orbital distance ratios (M(sub plan)/A(sub plan)) with the transition regions of their host stars.

Infrared and astrophysically inaccessible waveleng↗

Autonomous Navigation of a Lunar Relay Using GNSS and Other Measurements

Many of the highest priority destinations at the Moon lack a continuous view of Earth, such as the lunar poles or lunar far side. Exploration of these sites will require spacecraft in cislunar space to relay communications and provide position, navigation, and timing (PNT) services. Accurate knowledge of relay position, velocity, and time is essential to these services. This paper describes a concept for a PNT Instrument being developed for the Lunar Communications Relay and Navigation Systems (LCRNS) Project. The instrument is intended as a payload that would enable autonomous, on-board, real-time navigation and timing using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), optical navigation, and one-way measurements from Earth-based ground stations. Hardware-in-the-loop simulations using flight software are used to realistically characterize performance on hardware platforms with a path to flight. These results provide preliminary validation of the proposed PNT Instrument, demonstrate the benefits of augmenting GNSS with other measurements, and serve as an insightful reference for the design of future lunar missions, including those that will operate within the LunaNet framework of standards. This instrument concept relies on several technologies developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). For GNSS observables, the instrument relies on the high-altitude NavCube 3 mini (NC3m) GNSS receiver specifically designed for cislunar applications. The autoNGC system, which consists of flight software and a hardware platform, is responsible for fusing the observables using its extended Kalman filter, the Goddard Enhanced Onboard Navigation System (GEONS). Optical navigation observables are processed within autoNGC (“autonomous Navigation, Guidance, and Control”) using the Goddard Image Analysis & Navigation Tool (GIANT) which is also responsible for simulating high-fidelity images for test and analysis. In addition to describing the PNT Instrument and its components, the paper will present predicted performance based on simulation results. As a baseline, it will present GNSS-only hardware-in-the loop results using a NC3m test unit to process Spirent-simulated GPS signals in a potential lunar relay trajectory: a 12-hour elliptical frozen lunar orbit (ELFO). GEONS then processes the GPS pseudorange and time differenced carrier phase measurements to estimate and propagate the relay state (position, velocity, and time). These results extend previously published work that showed preliminary ELFO performance. Previous work has shown the importance of other measurement types, so additional simulations are performed which augment GNSS with ground station observables and several methods of optical navigation, including celestial navigation, limb-finding (e.g., observations of the lunar horizon), and terrain relative navigation (TRN). TRN involves correlating simulated predicted images of the lunar surface with actual imagery; misalignments of landmarks identified in each image are translated into relay state updates. TRN is valuable as a measurement of the relay’s state relative to the Moon, especially during GNSS outages or after maneuvers. One-way Pseudorange and Doppler measurements from Earth-based ground stations are also simulated. The full set of observables is processed using autoNGC. These simulations make use of autoNGC and NC3m test units, a lab atomic clock, and a pulse-per-second (PPS) generation and distribution system. This combination of subsystems, and the hardware platforms used in this analysis, represents a PNT Instrument that could be flown on a lunar relay. Results from the hardware-in-the-loop simulations presented in this paper provide a preliminary assessment of the achievable navigation performance of this instrument concept. PNT Instrument performance is compared to the GPS-only performance, and a discussion is provided on the apparent merits and challenges of each measurement type.

Ben Ashman↗

System Modeling of a Lunar Molten Regolith Electrolysis Plant

Introduction: In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) is the process of extracting local resources to produce commodities for propulsion, life support systems, and off-planet construction rather than transporting consumables from Earth. Molten Regolith Electrolysis (MRE) is a novel ISRU method of extracting oxygen gas and metal alloy from lunar regolith. The MRE process involves placing lunar regolith between two electrodes, through which current is passed, to melt the regolith and reduce the metal oxide constituents by direct electrolysis (e.g. FeO, SiO2, MgO, Al2O3) into oxygen gas and metal alloys. The oxygen is liquefied and used as propellant for landers, while the metals (e.g. Ferro-alloys) are further processed and used in structural building materials and parts manufacturing. A system model was developed that accounted for the major processes of an MRE plant (from excavation of raw materials to storage of products) to assess the feasibility of a lunar MRE plant. The System Engineering and Integration (SE&I) ISRU Modeling and Analysis (SIMA) team utilized its previously documented system sizing model, the Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) [1] as framework of the system model. MAIT uses MATLAB/Simulink to integrate subsystem models into a complete system model of the MRE plant. Total mass, volume, and power requirements were computed for numerous iterations of a MRE plant. System Model: Figure 1: MRE Plant Block Diagram The regolith excavation model determines the mass and power needed to excavate sufficient regolith. The preheating auger initiates the regolith heating process before regolith enters the MRE re-actor to reduce the energy required to turn the solid into a molten liquid. The MRE reactor is modeled in COMSOL Multiphysics and based on the research by Dominguez, Sibille, and Schreiner [2, 3, 4]. This preliminary reactor model provides an accurate calculation of thermal equilibrium during electrochemical operation of the reactor system to assess the optimal mass and power required to process the inlet flow of regolith. The model also computes the outlet flowrates of oxygen and molten products. For this analysis, the primary components of the metal alloy considered were iron and silicon. The oxygen is then purified using an Yttrium Stabilized Zirconia (YSZ) electrode, followed by liquefaction using a 90K cryocooler to be stored as liquid oxygen in insulated cylindrical tanks. In future iterations of the system model, the molten metal tapped from the MRE reactor will undergo additional processing or refinement. However, downstream handling of metals is currently a technology gap that is missing a high TRL subsystem model. Therefore, for this analysis, the accumulated metal alloy stream terminates after leaving the MRE reactor. Study Goals: This analysis investigates multiple input variables to the system to determine the sensitivity of a (near) complete plant at full-scale. This preliminary investigation ran parametric sweeps on the MRE reactor geometry, electrical current supply, layers of multi-layer insulation (MLI) on the reactor, size of the electrodes in the oxygen purification model, and regolith composition (based on landing site location). Three production targets of oxygen (1,000, 10,000, and 50,000 kg/yr) were investigated for this analysis. The parametric sweeps conducted in this analysis provide valuable insight into the expected impact of the various model inputs on plant size. This information can be used to identify the most critical components of the plant and guide future decisions on allocating funding for research and development, providing subsystem developers with appropriate interfaces with downstream and upstream processes, and assessing the overall feasibility of MRE when compared to other ISRU plants. References: [1] Carlson, A. et al. (2024) ICES, ICES-2024-53. [2] Dominguez, D.A., and Sibille, L. (2011) AIAA, AIAA-2011-700. [3] Schreiner, S.S. (2015) MIT, Dissertation. [4] Schreiner, S.S. et al. (2016) ASR, 57(7), pp.1585-1603.

ISRU↗

Trajectory Engineering with Modular Patched Conics for Entry Systems and TPS (TEMPEST)

Brief Presenter Biography (35 word limit): Bohdan Wesely is an Aerospace Engineer in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at Ames. He has worked on a variety of projects for NASA including integrated TPS (thermal protection system) flight hardware deliveries and testing services for commercial partners. Introduction: TEMPEST is a new trajectory analysis framework that is designed to fill the gap between dedicated flight mechanics tools and aerothermal and TPS sizing tools. The project started as an SJSU master’s thesis and has since evolved into a general conceptual design tool capable of studying a wide variety of entry problems. Development is ongoing in the Entry Systems and Technology Division at NASA ARC. Why TEMPEST: Space missions involving entry into a planetary atmosphere involve a series of unique requirements across multiple disciplines. Whether it is traditional entry descent and landing (EDL), or aerocapture, the vehicle must navigate to its target landing location or orbit state, and the TPS must protect the payload during entry. The design process typically involves iterative handoffs between various flight mechanics, flow solver, and material response level tools. During the early conceptual phase, a wide variety of feasible trajectories are simulated in a Monte Carlo scenario which broadly satisfy the mission or landing requirements. Next, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC), and other flow solver analyses are performed at various key trajectory points to generate an aero-database, heating and TPS design requirements also emerge at this stage. At this point, with updated aerodynamics from the various flow solvers, trajectories can be re-run, this in turn can change the required freestream conditions for the CFD tools, and as a project progresses, these analyses converge, and uncertainty is reduced. However, there is always a “hand-off” occurring between two inherently coupled phenomena. Analysis Description: One of the goals with TEMPEST is to use a variety of first principles estimation methods coupled with an atmosphere model to predict vehicle aerothermodynamics across the entire flight regime while propagating a 3 or 6 degree of freedom (DoF) trajectory. Aerodynamics methods include modified Newtonian, Maxwell and Cercignani- Lampis-Lord (CLL) for continuum, transitional, and free molecular flow regimes. Aerothermodynamics include boundary layer and reference enthalpy methods, and Mutation++ for non-equilibrium chemistry modeling. TEMPEST is also capable of stitching multiple trajectory segments together to study mission scenarios like multi-pass aerocapture and aero-gravity assists. Most of the program is implemented in MATLAB using modern system objects, it relies on several C++ shared libraries for supporting tools like Gmsh, the Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM), and Mutation++. The various first principles aerothermal estimation methods are discretized across either a structured axisymmetric panel mesh or an unstructured tri-mesh generated from an open-source tool such as Gmsh, this allows solutions on the same mesh to be compared across tools such as CB-Aero. CFD Coupling. A physics-aware, gaussian process CFD anchoring scheme is proposed to adjust the various first principles methods as a CFD database is populated. One goal for this anchoring module is to inform the project where CFD should be run. Full knowledge of the entire trajectory, atmosphere, and aerothermodynamics allows for easier identification of high sensitivity areas and uncertainty quantification. While the first principles effects are well known and proven accurate in existing tools such as CB- Aero and Cart3D, a physics aware CFD anchoring scheme increases tool credibility across a project lifecycle. Material Response Modeling. Correct TPS sizing is critical for optimizing mass for science payloads and ensuring mission success. The process typically involves a thermal analysis along the trajectory with surface heating environments as a boundary condition. Several design constraints are maximum bondline temperature and maximum recession with various margining techniques. The material response tool FIAT, developed out of NASA Ames, is currently being integrated into the TEMPEST environment. TPS recession, shape change, mass loss, and mass property alteration are all factors that can perturb an entry trajectory. For missions like Mars 2020, recession was minimal and was safely handled separately as a post process. For missions such as Jupiter Galileo with a high TPS mass fraction or asteroid entries, recession plays a major role. The proposed fully coupled scheme is to use an epoch-based approach where the trajectory integration is halted after a recession threshold, the energy balance and FIAT are solved at each panel, the mesh, aerodynamics, and mass properties are updated, and the trajectory continues. Several computational tradeoffs have been made during the development of TEMPEST to limit the cost of a single trajectory and preserve its utility as a conceptual, rapid iteration tool. Conclusion: Development of TEMPEST is ongoing and the project is still in its infancy. This talk aims to showcase its unique capabilities to support future NASA entry systems missions.

Bohdan O Wesely↗

Automated ISS Flight Utilities

During my internship at NASA Johnson Space Center, I worked in the Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG), where I was tasked with a number of projects focused on the automation of tasks and activities related to the operation of the International Space Station (ISS). As I worked on a number of projects, I have written short sections below to give a description for each, followed by more general remarks on the internship experience. My first project is titled "General Exposure Representation EVADOSE", also known as "GEnEVADOSE". This project involved the design and development of a C++/ ROOT framework focused on radiation exposure for extravehicular activity (EVA) planning for the ISS. The utility helps mission managers plan EVAs by displaying information on the cumulative radiation doses that crew will receive during an EVA as a function of the egress time and duration of the activity. SRAG uses a utility called EVADOSE, employing a model of the space radiation environment in low Earth orbit to predict these doses, as while outside the ISS the astronauts will have less shielding from charged particles such as electrons and protons. However, EVADOSE output is cumbersome to work with, and prior to GEnEVADOSE, querying data and producing graphs of ISS trajectories and cumulative doses versus egress time required manual work in Microsoft Excel. GEnEVADOSE automates all this work, reading in EVADOSE output file(s) along with a plaintext file input by the user providing input parameters. GEnEVADOSE will output a text file containing all the necessary dosimetry for each proposed EVA egress time, for each specified EVADOSE file. It also plots cumulative dose versus egress time and the ISS trajectory, and displays all of this information in an auto-generated presentation made in LaTeX. New features have also been added, such as best-case scenarios (egress times corresponding to the least dose), interpolated curves for trajectories, and the ability to query any time in the EVADES output. As mentioned above, GEnEVADOSE makes extensive use of ROOT version 6, the data analysis framework developed at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), and the code is written to the C++11 standard (as are the other projects). My second project is the Automated Mission Reference Exposure Utility (AMREU).Unlike GEnEVADOSE, AMREU is a combination of three frameworks written in both Python and C++, also making use of ROOT (and PyROOT). Run as a combination of daily and weekly cron jobs, these macros query the SRAG database system to determine the active ISS missions, and query minute-by-minute radiation dose information from ISS-TEPC (Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter), one of the radiation detectors onboard the ISS. Using this information, AMREU creates a corrected data set of daily radiation doses, addressing situations where TEPC may be offline or locked up by correcting doses for days with less than 95% live time (the total amount time the instrument acquires data) by averaging the past 7 days. As not all errors may be automatically detectable, AMREU also allows for manual corrections, checking an updated plaintext file each time it runs. With the corrected data, AMREU generates cumulative dose plots for each mission, and uses a Python script to generate a flight note file (.docx format) containing these plots, as well as information sections to be filled in and modified by the space weather environment officers with information specific to the week. AMREU is set up to run without requiring any user input, and it automatically archives old flight notes and information files for missions that are no longer active. My other projects involve cleaning up a large data set from the Charged Particle Directional Spectrometer (CPDS), joining together many different data sets in order to clean up information in SRAG SQL databases, and developing other automated utilities for displaying information on active solar regions, that may be used by the space weather environment officers to monitor solar activity. I consulted my mentor Dr. Ryan Rios and Dr. Kerry Lee for project requirements and added features, and ROOT developer Edmond Offermann for advice on using the ROOT library. I also received advice and feedback from Dr. Janet Barzilla of SRAG, who tested my code. Besides these inputs, I worked independently, writing all of the code by myself. The code for all these projects is documented throughout, and I have attempted to write it in a modular format. Assuming that ROOT is updated accordingly, these codes are also Y2038-compliant (and Y10K-compliant). This allows the code to be easily referenced, modified and possibly repurposed for non-ISS missions in the future, should the necessary inputs exist. These projects have taught me a lot about coding and software design - I have become a much more skilled C++ programmer and ROOT user, and I also learned to code in Python and PyROOT (and its advantages and disadvantages compared to C++/ ROOT). Furthermore, I have learned about space radiation and radiation modeling, topics that greatly interest me as I pursue a degree in physics. Working alongside experimental physicists like Dr. Rios, I have developed a greater understanding and appreciation for experimental science, something I have always leaned towards but to which I lacked significant exposure. My work in SRAG has also given me the invaluable opportunity to witness the work environment for physicists at NASA, and what a career in academia may look like at a government laboratory such as NASA Johnson Space Center. As I continue my studies and look forward to graduate school and a future career, this experience at NASA has given me a meaningful and enjoyable opportunity to put my skills to use and see what my future career path might hold.

Offermann, Jan Tuzlic↗

Analysis of Sample Acquisition Dynamics Using Discrete Element Method

The analysis presented in this paper is conducted in the framework of the Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration Research and Simulation (OceanWATERS) project, currently under development at NASA Ames Research Center. OceanWATERS aims at designing a simulation environment which allows for testing autonomy of scientific lander missions to the icy moons of our solar system. Mainly focused on reproducing the end effector interaction with the inherent terrain, this paper introduces a novel discrete element method (DEM)-based approach to determine forces and torques acting on the lander’s scoop during the sample acquisition process. An accurate force feedback from the terrain on the scoop is required by fault-detection and autonomous decision-making algorithms to identify when the requested torque on the robotic arm’s joints exceeds the maximum available torque. Knowledge of the terrain force feedback significantly helps evaluating the arm’s links structural properties and properly selecting actuators for the joints. Models available in literature constitute a partial representation of the dynamics of the interaction. As an example, Balovnev derived an analytical expression of the vertical and horizontal force acting on a bucket while collecting a sample as a function of its geometry and velocity, soil parameters and reached depth. Although the model represents an adequate approximation of the two force components, it ignores the direction orthogonal to the scoop motion and neglects the torque. This work relies on DEM analysis to compensate for analytical models’ deficiencies and inaccuracies, i. e. provide force and torque 3D vectors, defined in the moving reference (body) frame attached to the scoop, at each instant of the sample collection process. Results from the first presented analysis relate to the specific OceanWATERS sampling strategy, which consists of collecting the sample through five consecutive passes with increasing depth, each pass following the same circularlinear- circular trajectory. Data is collected given a specific scoop design interacting with two types of bulk materials, which may characterize the surface of icy planetary bodies: snow and ice. Although specifically concerned with the OceanWATERS design, this first analysis provides the expected force trends for similar sampling strategies and allows to deduce phenomenological information about the general scooping process. In order to further instruct the community on the use of DEM tools as a solution to the sampling collection problem, two more analyses have been carried out, mainly focused on reducing the DEM computation time, which increases with a decrease in particle size. After running a set of identical simulations, where the only changing parameter is the size of the spherical particle, it is observed that the resulting force trajectories, starting from a given particle size, converge to the true trend. It is deducible that a further decrease in size yields negligible improvements in the accuracy, while it sensibly increases computation time. A final analysis aims at discussing limitations of approximating bulk material particles having a complex shape, e. g. ice fragments, with spheres, by comparing force trends resulting in the two cases for the same simulation scenario.

Catanoso, Damiana↗