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Predicting Decade-to-Century Climate Change: Prospects for Improving Models

Recent research has led to a greatly increased understanding of the uncertainties in today's climate models. In attempting to predict the climate of the 21st century, we must confront not only computer limitations on the affordable resolution of global models, but also a lack of physical realism in attempting to model key processes. Until we are able to incorporate adequate treatments of critical elements of the entire biogeophysical climate system, our models will remain subject to these uncertainties, and our scenarios of future climate change, both anthropogenic and natural, will not fully meet the requirements of either policymakers or the public. The areas of most-needed model improvements are thought to include air-sea exchanges, land surface processes, ice and snow physics, hydrologic cycle elements, and especially the role of aerosols and cloud-radiation interactions. Of these areas, cloud-radiation interactions are known to be responsible for much of the inter-model differences in sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Recently, we have diagnostically evaluated several current and proposed model cloud-radiation treatments against extensive field observations. Satellite remote sensing provides an indispensable component of the observational resources. Cloud-radiation parameterizations display a strong sensitivity to vertical resolution, and we find that vertical resolutions typically used in global models are far from convergence. We also find that newly developed advanced parameterization schemes with explicit cloud water budgets and interactive cloud radiative properties are potentially capable of matching observational data closely. However, it is difficult to evaluate the realism of model-produced fields of cloud extinction, cloud emittance, cloud liquid water content and effective cloud droplet radius until high-quality measurements of these quantities become more widely available. Thus, further progress will require a combination of theoretical and modeling research, together with intensified emphasis on both in situ and space-based remote sensing observations.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗

Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA

Reanalyses, retrospectively analyzing observations over climatological time scales, represent a merger between satellite observations and models to provide globally continuous data and have improved over several generations. Balancing the Earth s global water and energy budgets has been a focus of research for more than two decades. Models tend to their own climate while remotely sensed observations have had varying degrees of uncertainty. This study evaluates the latest NASA reanalysis, called the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from a global water and energy cycles perspective. MERRA was configured to provide complete budgets in its output diagnostics, including the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU), the term that represents the observations influence on the analyzed states, alongside the physical flux terms. Precipitation in reanalyses is typically sensitive to the observational analysis. For MERRA, the global mean precipitation bias and spatial variability are more comparable to merged satellite observations (GPCP and CMAP) than previous generations of reanalyses. Ocean evaporation also has a much lower value which is comparable to observed data sets. The global energy budget shows that MERRA cloud effects may be generally weak, leading to excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface. Evaluating the MERRA time series of budget terms, a significant change occurs, which does not appear to be represented in observations. In 1999, the global analysis increments of water vapor changes sign from negative to positive, and primarily lead to more oceanic precipitation. This change is coincident with the beginning of AMSU radiance assimilation. Previous and current reanalyses all exhibit some sensitivity to perturbations in the observation record, and this remains a significant research topic for reanalysis development. The effect of the changing observing system is evaluated for MERRA water and energy budget terms.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

Large-Scale Groundwater Monitoring in Brazil Assisted With Satellite-Based Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Here, we develop and test an artificial intelligence (AI)-based approach to monitor major Brazilian aquifers. The approach combines Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and ground-based hydrogeological measurements from Brazil’s Integrated Groundwater Monitoring Network at hundreds of wells distributed in twelve aquifers across the country. We tested model ensembles based on three AI approaches: Extreme Gradient Boost, Light Gradient Boosting Model and CatBoost, followed by a Linear Regression (LR) step. The approach is further boosted with wavelet and seasonal decomposition processes applied to GRACE data. To determine the AI-based model’s sensitivity to data availability, we propose four experiments combining hydrogeological measurements from different aquifers. Groundwater storage estimates from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) are used as benchmark. A sensitivity analysis shows that the LR-based model ensemble is the best suited and to reproduce groundwater storage change in all studied Brazilian aquifers. Results show that the proposed approach outperforms GLDAS in all experiments, with an RMSE value of 2.68cm for the experiment that covers all monitored wells in Brazil. GLDAS resulted in RMSE=6.76cm. Using our AI model outputs, we quantified the groundwater storage change of two major aquifers, Urucuia and Bauru-Caiuá, over the past two decades: -31km 3 and -6km 3 , respectively. Water loss is driven by a prolonged drought across most of the country and intensification of groundwater pumping for irrigation. This study demonstrates that combining satellite data and AI can be a cost-effective alternative to monitor poorly equipped aquifers at the continental scale, with possible global replicability.

GRACE↗

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Boundary conditions↗

Satellite Remote Sensing of the Liquid Water Sensitivity in Water Clouds

In estimation of the aerosol indirect effect, cloud liquid water path is considered either constant (Twomey effect) or increasing with enhanced droplet number concentrations (drizzle-suppression effect, or Albrecht effect) if cloud microphysics is the prevailing mechanism during the aerosol-cloud interactions. On the other hand, if cloud thermodynamics and dynamics are considered, the cloud liquid water path may be decreased with increasing droplet number concentration, which is predicted by model calculations and observed in ship-track and urban influence studies. This study is to examine the different responses of cloud liquid water path to changes of cloud droplet number concentration. Satellite data (January, April, July and October 1987) are used to retrieve the cloud liquid water sensitivity, defined as the changes of liquid water path versus changes of column droplet number concentrations. The results of a global survey reveal that 1) in at least one third of the cases the cloud liquid water sensitivity is negative, and the regional and seasonal variations of the negative liquid water sensitivity are consistent with other observations; 2) cloud droplet sizes are always inversely proportional to column droplet number concentrations. Our results suggest that an increase of cloud droplet number concentration leads to reduced cloud droplet size and enhanced evaporation, which weakens the coupling between water clouds and boundary layer in warm zones, decreases water supply from surface and desiccates cloud liquid water. Our results also suggest that the current evaluations of negative aerosol indirect forcing by global climate models (GCM), which are based on Twomey effect or Albrecht effect, may be overestimated.

Han, Qing-Yuan↗

Atmospheric Constituents in GEOS-5: Components for an Earth System Model

The GEOS-S model is being developed for weather and climate processes, including the implementation of "Earth System" components. While the stratospheric chemistry capabilities are mature, we are presently extending this to include predictions of the tropospheric composition and chemistry - this includes CO2, CH4, CO, nitrogen species, etc. (Aerosols are also implemented, but are beyond the scope of this paper.) This work will give an overview of our chemistry modules, the approaches taken to represent surface emissions and uptake of chemical species, and some studies of the sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation to changes in atmospheric composition. Results are obtained through focused experiments and multi-decadal simulations.

Pawson, Steven↗

PHyTIR - A Prototype Thermal Infrared Radiometer

This paper describes the PHyTIR (Prototype HyspIRI Thermal Infrared Radiometer) instrument, which is the engineering model for the proposed HyspIRI (Hyperspectral Infrared Imager) earth observing instrument. The HyspIRI mission would be comprised of the HyspIRI TIR (Thermal Infrared Imager), and a VSWIR (Visible Short-Wave Infra-Red Imaging Spectrometer). Both instruments would be used to address key science questions related to the earth's carbon cycle, ecosystems, climate, and solid earth properties. Data gathering of volcanic activities, earthquakes, wildfires, water use and availability, urbanization, and land surface compositions and changes, would aid the predictions and evaluations of such events and the impact they create. Even though the proposed technology for the HyspIRI imager is mature, the PHyTIR prototype is needed to advance the technology levels for several of the instrument's key components, and to reduce risks, in particular to validate 1) the higher sensitivity, spatial resolution, and higher throughput required for this focal plane array, 2) the pointing accuracy, 2) the characteristics of several spectral channels, and 4) the use of ambient temperature optics. The PHyTIR telescope consists of the focal plane assembly that is housed within a cold housing located inside a vacuum enclosure; all mounted to a bulkhead, and an optical train that consists of 3 powered mirrors; extending to both sides of the bulkhead. A yoke connects the telescope to a scan mirror. The rotating mirror enables to scan- a large track on the ground. This structure is supported by kinematic mounts, linking the telescope assembly to a base plate that would also become the spacecraft interface for HyspIRI. The focal plane's cooling units are also mounted to the base plate, as is an overall enclosure that has two viewing ports with large exterior baffles, shielding the focal plane from incoming stray light. PHyTIR's electronics is distributed inside and near the vacuum enclosure, and in a nearby rack. The data acquisition technique would be to take measurements over a 51deg wide swath in the cross spacecraft velocity direction, which is brought into view through the rotating scan mirror. A landscape mosaic thus can be assembled by overlaying rows of measurements. The paper briefly outlines the proposed HyspIRI mission and its data acquisition technique; it then describes the prototype PHyTIR instrument.

Space Instrument↗

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Model Description and Results - 1

Methane is an important greenhouse gas which contributes about 22 percent to the present greenhouse effect. Natural wetlands currently constitute the biggest methane source and were the major source in preindustrial times. Wetland emissions depend highly on the climate, i.e., on soil temperature and water table. To investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a process-based model that derives methane emissions from natural wetlands as a function of soil temperature, water table, and net primary productivity is used. For its application on the global scale, global data sets for all model parameters are generated. In addition, a simple hydrologic model is developed in order to simulate the position of the water table in wetlands. The hydrologic model is tested against data from different wetland sites, and the sensitivity of the hydrologic model to changes in precipitation is examined. The global methane­ hydrology model constitutes a tool to study temporal and spatial variations in methane emissions from natural wetlands. The model is applied using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions from wetlands to be 260 teragrams per year. Twenty-five percent of these methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 degrees North Latitude. Only 60 percent of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well.

Biogeochemical processes↗

Mobile Instruments Measure Atmospheric Pollutants

As a part of NASA's active research of the Earth s atmosphere, which has included missions such as the Atmospheric Laboratory of Applications and Science (ATLAS, launched in 1992) and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS, launched on the Earth Probe satellite in 1996), the Agency also performs ground-based air pollution research. The ability to measure trace amounts of airborne pollutants precisely and quickly is important for determining natural patterns and human effects on global warming and air pollution, but until recent advances in field-grade spectroscopic instrumentation, this rapid, accurate data collection was limited and extremely difficult. In order to understand causes of climate change and airborne pollution, NASA has supported the development of compact, low power, rapid response instruments operating in the mid-infrared "molecular fingerprint" portion of the electromagnetic spectrum. These instruments, which measure atmospheric trace gases and airborne particles, can be deployed in mobile laboratories - customized ground vehicles, typically - to map distributions of pollutants in real time. The instruments must be rugged enough to operate rapidly and accurately, despite frequent jostling that can misalign, damage, or disconnect sensitive components. By measuring quickly while moving through an environment, a mobile laboratory can correlate data and geographic points, revealing patterns in the environment s pollutants. Rapid pollutant measurements also enable direct determination of pollutant sources and sinks (mechanisms that remove greenhouse gases and pollutants), providing information critical to understanding and managing atmospheric greenhouse gas and air pollutant concentrations.

Source record↗

Choosing Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessment of High Speed Aircraft

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team is developing a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to be used in assessment of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Requirements are that this model be documented, be validated against observations, use a realistic atmospheric circulation, and contain numerical transport and photochemical modules representing atmospheric processes. The model must also retain computational efficiency to be tractable to use for multiple scenarios and sensitivity studies. To meet these requirements, a facility model concept was developed in which the different components of the CTM are evaluated separately. The first use of the GMI model will be to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. The assessment calculations will depend strongly on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere are available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to identify the data set which provides the best representation of the stratosphere. Simulations of gases with simple chemical control were chosen to test various aspects of model transport. The three meteorological data sets were evaluated and graded based on their ability to simulate these aspects of stratospheric measurements. This paper describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields. The meteorological data set which has the highest score and therefore was selected for GMI is CCM2. This type of objective model evaluation establishes a physical basis for interpretation of differences between models and observations. Further, the method provides a quantitative basis for defining model errors, for discriminating between different models, and for ready re-evaluation of improved models. These in turn will lead to a higher level of confidence in assessment calculations.

Douglas, A. R.↗

Choosing Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessment of High Speed Aircraft

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team is developing a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to be used in assessment of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Requirements are that this model be documented be validated against observations, use a realistic atmospheric circulation, and contain numerical transport and photochemical modules representing atmospheric processes. The model must also retain computational efficiency to be tractable to use for multiple scenarios and sensitivity studies. To meet these requirements, a facility model concept was developed in which the different components of the CTM are evaluated separately. The first use of the GMI model will be to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. The assessment calculations will depend strongly on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere are available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to identify the data set which provides the best representation of the stratosphere. Simulations of gases with simple chemical control were chosen to test various aspects of model transport. The three meteorological data sets were evaluated and graded based on their ability to simulate these aspects of stratospheric measurements. This paper describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields. The meteorological data set which has the highest score and therefore was selected for GMI is CCM2. This type of objective model evaluation establishes a physical basis for interpretation of differences between models and observations. Further, the method provides a quantitative basis for defining model errors, for discriminating between different models, and for ready re-evaluation of improved models. These in turn will lead to a higher level of confidence in assessment calculations.

Douglass, A. R.↗

An Update on Oceanic Precipitation Rate and its Zonal Distribution in Light of Advanced Observations from Space

This study contributes to the estimation of the global mean and zonal distribution of oceanic precipitation rate using complementary information from advanced precipitation measuring sensors and provides an independent reference to assess current precipitation products. Precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and CloudSat cloud profiling radar (CPR) were merged, as the two complementary sensors yield an unprecedented range of sensitivity to quantify rainfall from drizzle through the most intense rates. At higher latitudes, where TRMM PR does not exist, precipitation estimates from Aqua's Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) complemented CloudSat CPR to capture intense precipitation rates. The high sensitivity of CPR allows estimation of snow rate, an important type of precipitation at high latitudes, not directly observed in current merged precipitation products. Using the merged precipitation estimate from the CloudSat, TRMM, and Aqua platforms (this estimate is abbreviated to MCTA), the authors' estimate for 3-yr (2007-09) nearglobal (80degS-80degN) oceanic mean precipitation rate is approx. 2.94mm/day. This new estimate of mean global ocean precipitation is about 9% higher than that of the corresponding Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) value (2.68mm/day) and about 4% higher than that of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP; 2.82mm/day). Furthermore, MCTA suggests distinct differences in the zonal distribution of precipitation rate from that depicted in GPCPand CMAP, especially in the Southern Hemisphere.

profiling radar↗

Chapter 10 - Remote Sensing Measurements of Aerosol Properties

Satellite instruments have proven especially capable at monitoring the quantity of airborne particles in columns of atmosphere, globally. This chapter describes the principles of satellite measurements and retrieval algorithms, and surveys current instruments and their capabilities. We outline the issues associated with retrieval algorithms, such as surface characterization and aerosol proximity to clouds, and the challenges with interpretation of the results. The relationship between measured aerosol properties and climate-relevant aerosol properties simulated in models is outlined, as well as how measurements are used to evaluate models. Most space-based aerosol instruments are passive sensors that measure reflected sunlight at multiple wavelengths, some at multiple viewing angles. A few are active sensors that send out their own laser light and measure the returned signal. Except when clouds are present, the excess amount of light scattered back to space, beyond that expected from the surface and atmospheric gas, is attributed to aerosol. Satellite measurements are used in many ways in aerosol research. They often provide the only method for monitoring hazardous phenomena such as major wildfire and volcanic eruption plumes, especially in remote areas. Stable, long-term, near-global-scale satellite data records make it possible to identify regional and global aerosol trends. Aerosol radiative effects on climate can be quantified on a near-global scale and used to estimate the strength of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions as well as to evaluate climate model simulations of these interactions. Aerosol-type mapping from satellite imagery is helpful for source attribution, model validation, and to constrain particle light-absorption properties that are essential for radiative forcing calculations. The range of aerosol properties retrieved from satellite observations has grown considerably since the first global estimates of aerosol optical depth (τ a) over ocean were made in the late 1970s. Methods for retrieving particle size and light-absorption properties were explored in the 1990s using multispectral, multi-angle observations, and polarization in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Sensitivity to particle light absorption, primarily from black or brown carbon content, improved with the inclusion of UV channels, and sensitivity to very thin aerosol layers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was advanced with the use of limb-sounding instruments and active sensors. There are limitations to every measurement technique, including satellite aerosol remote sensing. For wide-swath, passive instruments, aerosol retrievals near clouds can present substantial challenges as far as 15 km away due to cloud-scattered light contaminating the signal. In nearly all cases, retrievals over bright snow and ice surfaces are precluded because surface reflectance uncertainties can overwhelm the aerosol signal. Similarly, meteorological cloud is identified and masked out where possible. Data from passive sensors also lack vertical resolution except those that view toward the limb or where multi-angle imagery is acquired over plumes from wildfires, erupting volcanoes, and wind-blown dust. Yet, passive sensors provide vastly more coverage than the active instruments that mitigate these issues. Particle microphysical information is qualitative from all remote sensing techniques, relying on proxies to infer particle composition, hygroscopicity, and the amount of light-absorbing material. Further, particles smaller than about 200 nm diameter cannot be distinguished from atmospheric gas molecules with remote sensing, which hinders studies of cloud condensation nuclei and their effects on clouds. Most satellite instruments dedicated to aerosol observations are in low-Earth, near-polar, sun-synchronous orbits, which means they cross the equator at the same local time each day. Most are set on cycles that repeat approximately every 16 days, which makes it difficult to monitor aerosol evolution locally. Geostationary satellites make it possible to observe changes occurring from minutes to hours over regions up to 8000 km in size, but lack coverage of high latitudes, and often provide more limited constraints on aerosol properties. Ground-truth data are vital for satellite aerosol-retrieval validation. The AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) of sun photometers was created in 1993 and has become an established global network of over 350 instruments for validating satellite measurements. The network, as well as global networks of ground-based lidars, solar flux radiometers and other sun photometers, are widely used for evaluating global satellite retrievals and model simulations. NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) program beginning in 1999 led to improvements in reliability, spatial resolution, and spectral resolution (and hence, to improved particle size discrimination and light absorption properties). Satellite payloads include advanced broad-swath and multi-angle imagers, along with the first space-based active sensor focused largely on long-term aerosol monitoring. Since about 2002, Europe's SENTINEL and operational meteorological satellite fleets are also providing sustained aerosol observations, with planned continuation until at least 2030. Satellite remote sensing instruments offer valuable data for evaluating aerosol representations in global climate models. They have been used to assess aerosol optical and physical properties, trends and distributions, and are applied increasingly as direct model constraints in data assimilation to create global aerosol reanalysis products. Aerosol optical depth is the most common quantity adopted for routine model evaluation, including multiwavelength data to loosely constrain particle-size distributions. These evaluations of multiple models have revealed general biases in their regional aerosol amounts and seasonal patterns of transport and removal. Although satellite measurements have near-global coverage, substantial errors can be introduced into the model observation comparison unless attention is paid to spatial and temporal collocation, cloud screening, subgrid-scale variability, and measurement uncertainties that vary with retrieval conditions.

aerosol properties↗

Tropical Tropopause Structure and Processes as Observed with GPS Radio Occultation

The vertical temperature structure of the tropical atmosphere has been explained as controlled by the combined effect of three green house gases: water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone. Absorption by water vapor of the light reflected off the Earth's surface would determine the temperature lapse rate in the lower troposphere up to the bottom of the Tropical Transition Layer (TTL); radiative absorption by carbon dioxide would dominate the temperature lapse rate between the bottom of the TTL and the coldest point in the upper-troposphere, the cold point tropopause (CPT), and; absorption of incoming solar radiation by ozone would control the temperature above the CPT. The TTL region can thus be very sensitive to changes in the relative abundances of these greenhouse gases. In this contribution we describe the seasonal evolution of temperature profiles in the TTL and their longitudinal structure using GPS radio occultation.

global positioning system (GPS)↗

The sensitivity of the general circulation to Arctic Sea ice boundaries - A numerical experiment

Results are presented for a set of numerical experiments conducted with the Goddard (formerly GISS) general circulation model. The experiments were designed to test the model atmospheric response to a single fixed and specified parameter, the total ice cover in the Davis Strait, Barents Sea, East Greenland Sea, Sea of Okhotsk and Bering Sea. Margin variations are considered that are substantially smaller than those involved in ice age or ice-free Arctic simulations. Anomaly is defined as the mean of two runs corresponding to climatological maximum sea ice conditions. Model results indicate that the ice margin anomalies are capable of altering local climates in certain regions of high and middle latitudes. Possible interactions between high latitudes and subtropical regions are suggested.

Herman, G. F.↗

Interannual Variations of MLS Carbon Monoxide Induced by Solar Cycle

More than eight years (2004-2012) of carbon monoxide (CO) measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed. The mesospheric CO, largely produced by the carbon dioxide (CO2) photolysis in the lower thermosphere, is sensitive to the solar irradiance variability. The long-term variation of observed mesospheric MLS CO concentrations at high latitudes is likely driven by the solar-cycle modulated UV forcing. Despite of different CO abundances in the southern and northern hemispheric winter, the solar-cycle dependence appears to be similar. This solar signal is further carried down to the lower altitudes by the dynamical descent in the winter polar vortex. Aura MLS CO is compared with the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) total solar irradiance (TSI) and also with the spectral irradiance in the far ultraviolet (FUV) region from the SORCE Solar-Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). Significant positive correlation (up to 0.6) is found between CO and FUVTSI in a large part of the upper atmosphere. The distribution of this positive correlation in the mesosphere is consistent with the expectation of CO changes induced by the solar irradiance variations.

carbon monoxide↗

Global navigation satellite system reflectometry (GNSS-R) algorithms for wetland observations

It is important to closely monitor the state of the world’s wetlands, as climate change and human encroachment in a rapid global urbanization trend threaten to cause large-scale wetland collapse. Because wetlands are often difficult to observe in situ, remote sensing is the only viable way to map wetland extent globally. However, current remote sensing methods suffer limitations in capturing wetland extent, and more importantly, wetland dynamics at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. GNSSReflectometry could help fill the current observation gap, as experimental data show that ground-reflected GNSS signals are very sensitive to changes in inundated areas. Furthermore, because this technique only requires a custom developed receiver and antenna system, a constellation of such instruments can potentially be launched at relatively low cost, providing global observations at sub-daily intervals. One challenge remains, however, which is quantitatively formulating the geophysical product of reflections over the land surface in various states of inundation. Here, we use a novel reflection dataset, derived from the SMAP radar receiver, to elucidate the sensitivity of reflections to small land surface features and their seasonal variations. Additionally, we quantify the dynamic range of reflections over both open and closed wetlands, and suggest an algorithm for wetland type classification.

UNKNOWN↗

Capabilities and limitations of existing MST radars: Poker Flat

Designed as a prototype system to continuously monitor the atmosphere up to approximately 100 km, the Poker Flat MST radar began operating in 1979 at a relatively low sensitivity. In almost continuous operation since then, the system is steadily increasing in sensitivity to its ultimate design characteristics. Current and final parameters are listed. The advantages of its modular design, which uses 64 transmitting modules distributed through the 200 mx 200 m antenna array include: easy maintenance, beam switching using very low power switching, air cooled transmitting tubes, lower feedline costs, and no moving parts. Continuous, uninterrupted operation ( 4 years) and less man-made interference because of the remote location) are other assets. Most disadvantages are related to its not-yet-finished status, climate, moose excursions, and operating expenses.

Balsley, B. B.↗