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Photogrammetric Assessment of the Hubble Space Telescope Solar Arrays During the Second Servicing Mission

This report documents the photogrammetric assessment of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar arrays conducted by the NASA c Center Image Science and Analysis Group during Second Servicing Mission 2 (SM-2) on STS-82 in February 1997. Two type solar array analyses were conducted during the mission using Space Shuttle payload bay video: (1) measurement of solar array motion due to induced loads, and (2) measurement of the solar array static or geometric twist caused by the cumulative array loading. The report describes pre-mission planning and analysis technique development activities conducted to acquire and analyze solar array imagery data during SM-2. This includes analysis of array motion obtained during SM-1 as a proof-of-concept of the SM-2 measurement techniques. The report documents the results of real-time analysis conducted during the mission and subsequent analysis conducted post-flight. This report also provides a summary of lessons learned on solar array imagery analysis from SM-2 and recommendations for future on-orbit measurements applicable to HST SM-3 and to the International Space Station. This work was performed under the direction of the Goddard Space Flight Center HST Flight Systems and Servicing Project.

Sapp, C. A.↗

Directed energy deposition of Haynes 282 nickel superalloy

Laser powder directed energy deposition was employed to fabricate Haynes® 282 Ni-based superalloy for high temperature creep testing. Material was heat treated using a single-step aging heat treatment of 800 °C for 4 h. Microstructural analysis was conducted in the as-deposited, solution-annealed, and age-hardened conditions. γ′ precipitates were absent in the as-deposited and annealed condition but formed during aging with an average size of 48.5 ± 12 nm. γ’ denuded zones ranging in thickness from 73 to 469 nm were observed adjacent to an effectively continuous grain boundary carbide film that covered 72.5% of the measured boundary length. The heat-treated material contained a high-volume fraction of TiC carbides ranging in size from 38 to 457 nm. Electron backscatter diffraction showed partial recrystallization, with 77-83% recrystallized area and a heterogeneous grain-size distribution. Creep testing at 750 °C at 300, 320, and 350 MPa revealed significantly inferior performance compared to wrought material, with higher strain rates, earlier tertiary onset, and shorter rupture lives. Fractography shows that failure was dominated by intergranular rupture. Post rupture microstructural analysis results suggest that the creep behavior was primarily governed by the non-equilibrium interface network rather than the bulk γ/γ’ matrix. In conclusion, the findings indicate that achieving wrought-like creep performance necessitates substantial improvements in the additive process, specifically focusing on enhanced homogenization, full recrystallization, and precise control over the morphology and distribution of carbides.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Heat Melt Compaction as an Effective Treatment for Eliminating Microorganisms from Solid Waste

One of the technologies being tested at Ames Research Center as part of the logistics and repurposing project is heat melt compaction (HMC) of solid waste to reduce volume, remove water and render a biologically stable and safe product. Studies at Kennedy Space Center have focused on the efficacy of the heat melt compaction process for killing microorganisms in waste and specific compacter operation protocols, i.e., time and temperature required to achieve a sterile, stable product. The work. reported here includes a controlled study to examine the survival and potential re-growth of specific microorganisms over a 6-month period of storage after heating and compaction. Before heating and compaction, ersatz solid wastes were inoculated with Bacillus amyloliquefaciens and Rhodotorula mucilaginosa, previously isolated from recovered space shuttle mission food and packaging waste. Compacted HMC tiles were sampled for microbiological analysis at time points between 0 and 180 days of storage in a controlled environment chamber. In addition, biological indicator strips containing spores of Bacillus atrophaeus and Geobacillus stearothermophilus were imbedded in trash to assess the efficacy of the HMC process to achieve sterilization. Analysis of several tiles compacted at 180deg C for times of 40 minutes to over 2 hours detected organisms in all tile samples with the exception of one exposed to 180deg C for approximately 2 hours. Neither of the inoculated organisms was recovered, and the biological indicator strips were negative for growth in all tiles indicating at least local sterilization of tile areas. The findings suggest that minimum time/temperature combination is required for complete sterilization. Microbial analysis of tiles processed at lower temperatures from 130deg C-150deg C at varying times will be discussed, as well as analysis of the bacteria and fungi present on the compactor hardware as a result of exposure to the waste and the surrounding environment. The two organisms inoculated into the waste were among those isolated and identified from the HMC surfaces indicating the possibility of cross contamination.

Hummerick, Mary P.↗

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗

Investigation of the role of hydrogen bonding in ionic liquid-like salts with both N- and S-soft donors

In search of ionic liquids (ILs) with multiple types of soft donor atoms capable of preferentially complexing a range of soft metal ions over harder ions, we investigated structural clues to the role of hydrogen bonding in IL behavior through a series of salts with anions containing both N- and S-donor atoms based on azole thiolates. Reaction of equimolar amounts of triethylamine (Et 3 N) or diisobutylamine (DBA) with 1-phenyl-1H-tetrazole-5-thiol (PhTzSH), 1-methyl-1H-tetrazole-5-thiol (MeTzSH), or 5-methyl-1,3,4-dithiazole-2-thiol (MeDiTSH) yielded [Et 3 NH][MeTzS] (1), a yellow liquid, and the low melting yellow solids [DBAH][MeTzS] (2), [Et 3 NH][PhTzS] (3), [DBAH][PhTzS] (4), [Et 3 NH][MeDiTS] (5), and [DBAH][MeDiTS] (6). Thermal analysis revealed that all of them qualify as ILs with melting points below 100 °C. Single crystal X-ray structure analysis of 2–6 revealed the presence of an extensive H-bonding network that includes the rare N–H$\cdots$S hydrogen bonds in 3, 4, and 6. These weaker interactions appear to significantly influence thermal behavior, where strong bonding leads to higher melting temperatures and lower decomposition points.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Laser Ablation-Capillary Absorption Spectroscopy: A novel approach for high throughput and increased spatial resolution measurements of δ 13 C in plant-soil systems

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of nutrient exchange within the rhizosphere is a topic of increasing interest, although challenging to study due to limits in existing analytical capabilities. Here, we developed and demonstrated a new approach applying laser ablation sample introduction to capillary absorption spectroscopy (LA-CAS) to characterize carbon isotopic distribution within plant tissues, rhizosphere, and soil. We exposed switchgrass plants to 13 CO 2 to allow tracing of 13 C-labelled photosynthates within plant biomass and into the associated soil. The LA-CAS methods we describe leverage continuous measurements of a sample stream derived from laser ablation line scans (10-25 µm in width) over a sample surface which enables the user to produce an isotope map with a) higher data density or b) over larger spatial areas versus previously existing techniques. This versatility of LA-CAS is assessed through testing of a range of laser parameters (spot size, scan rates) on various materials (soil, plant biomass/tissues, and rhizosphere). Here, we demonstrate the ability of LA-CAS to provide near instantaneous $δ$ 13 C measurements over isotopically distinct surfaces to enable high spatially resolved mapping of 13 C-labelled material within the rhizosphere. Applying LA-CAS analysis to plant biomass, we observed higher $δ$ 13 C values concentrated within phloem structures, consistent with localized photosynthate transport. When mapping across the rhizosphere, 13 C-enriched soil was typically present within 5-10µm of root boundaries with a steep spatial increase in $δ$ 13 C when the scan approached the middle of the root. As with all LA approaches, care is required to ensure accurate results as phenomena linked to ablation, combustion, and isotopic measurement can impart artifacts if not carefully controlled. Still, taken as a whole, our demonstrations highlight the increased sample throughput, improved data density, and enhanced $δ$ 13 C capability of LA-CAS versus other LA techniques and emphasize the role this method can play in future plant and rhizosphere related studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive Inverse Model for Advective Heat Transfer in a Short–Circuited Fracture: Dimensional Analysis, Machine Learning, and Field Demonstration

Identifying fluid flow maldistribution in planar geometries is a well–established problem in subsurface science/engineering. Of particular importance to the thermal performance of enhanced (or “engineered”) geothermal systems is identifying the existence of nonuniform (i.e., heterogeneous) permeability and subsequently predicting advective heat transfer. Here, machine learning via a genetic algorithm (GA) identifies the spatial distribution of an unknown permeability field in a two–dimensional Hele–Shaw geometry (i.e., parallel plates). The inverse problem is solved by minimizing the L2 norm between simulated residence time distribution (RTD) and measurements of an inert tracer breakthrough curve (BTC) (C–Dot nanoparticle). Principal component analysis (PCA) of spatially correlated permeability fields enabled reduction of the parameter space by more than a factor of 10 and restricted the inverse search to reservoir–scale permeability variations. Thermal experiments and tracer tests conducted at the mesoscale Altona Field Laboratory (AFL) demonstrate that the method accurately predicts the effects of extreme flow channeling on heat transfer in a single bedding–plane rock fracture. However, this is only true when the permeability distributions provide adequate matches to both tracer RTD and frictional pressure loss. Without good agreement to frictional pressure loss, it is still possible to match a simulated RTD to measurements, but subsequent predictions of heat transfer are grossly inaccurate. Here, the results of this study suggest that it is possible to anticipate the thermal effects of flow maldistribution, but only if both simulated RTDs and frictional pressure loss between fluid inlets and outlets are in good agreement with measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Temperature-dependent changes in gas chromatographic separation metrics for trihexyl(tetradecyl)phosphonium-based ionic liquid stationary phases and comparison to conventional polysiloxane stationary phases

Here, to assess whether the trihexyl(tetradecyl)phosphonium chloride ([P 66614 + ][Cl - ]) ionic liquid (IL), employed as a gas chromatographic stationary phase, exhibits temperature-dependent phase transitions or structural heterogeneity, retention thermodynamics for probe molecules of varied chemical structure were investigated by gas chromatography (GC) over the temperature range of 25 to 64 °C using van’t Hoff analysis. All van’t Hoff plots for n-alkanes (C8–C12) and other probe analytes were linear, indicating the absence of detectable phase-transition behavior. The [P 66614 + ][Cl - ] IL was further compared with the [P 66614 + ] bis[(trifluoromethyl)sulfonyl]imide ([P 66614 + ][NTf 2 - ]) IL and commercial polysiloxane stationary phases in terms of temperature-dependent resolution behavior and chromatographic selectivity over the temperature range of 28–52 °C. The resolution factors of analytes in mixtures obtained using gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) and the summation of resolution values decreased smoothly with temperature on both IL stationary phases and on the dimethylphenylcyano-substituted polymeric stationary phase (OV-1701), whereas the poly(50% diphenyl/50% dimethyl siloxane) stationary phase (SPB-50) exhibited irregularities in its temperature-dependent summation of resolution profile, showing a distinct maximum in the temperature range of 34–40 °C. Selectivity values for the IL stationary phases were largely determined by the anion, with the [P 66614 + ][Cl - ] IL providing enhanced separation between polar and aromatic analytes, while the [P 66614 + ][NTf 2 - ] IL favored dispersive and π-π interactions that resulted in a reversal of elution order for some aliphatic–aromatic and alkyne-containing analyte pairs. Capillary columns prepared using different surface activation methods and coated with identical [P 66614 + ][Cl - ] IL stationary phase showed indistinguishable temperature-dependent trends in summation of resolution value and selectivity. An evaluation of analyte-specific selectivity provides insight into the characteristic separation behavior of the stationary phases and enables identification of analyte classes that are more efficiently separated on the [P 66614 + ]-based IL stationary phases compared to conventional stationary phase materials.

Chromatographic selectivity↗

GAL08, an Uncultivated Group of Acidobacteria, Is a Dominant Bacterial Clade in a Neutral Hot Spring

GAL08 are bacteria belonging to an uncultivated phylogenetic cluster within the phylum Acidobacteria . We detected a natural population of the GAL08 clade in sediment from a pH-neutral hot spring located in British Columbia, Canada. To shed light on the abundance and genomic potential of this clade, we collected and analyzed hot spring sediment samples over a temperature range of 24.2–79.8°C. Illumina sequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons and qPCR using a primer set developed specifically to detect the GAL08 16S rRNA gene revealed that absolute and relative abundances of GAL08 peaked at 65°C along three temperature gradients. Analysis of sediment collected over multiple years and locations revealed that the GAL08 group was consistently a dominant clade, comprising up to 29.2% of the microbial community based on relative read abundance and up to 4.7 × 10 5 16S rRNA gene copy numbers per gram of sediment based on qPCR. Using a medium quality threshold, 25 single amplified genomes (SAGs) representing these bacteria were generated from samples taken at 65 and 77°C, and seven metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) were reconstructed from samples collected at 45–77°C. Based on average nucleotide identity (ANI), these SAGs and MAGs represented three separate species, with an estimated average genome size of 3.17 Mb and GC content of 62.8%. Phylogenetic trees constructed from 16S rRNA gene sequences and a set of 56 concatenated phylogenetic marker genes both placed the three GAL08 bacteria as a distinct subgroup of the phylum Acidobacteria , representing a candidate order ( Ca. Frugalibacteriales) within the class Blastocatellia. Metabolic reconstructions from genome data predicted a heterotrophic metabolism, with potential capability for aerobic respiration, as well as incomplete denitrification and fermentation. In laboratory cultivation efforts, GAL08 counts based on qPCR declined rapidly under atmospheric levels of oxygen but increased slightly at 1% (v/v) O 2 , suggesting a microaerophilic lifestyle.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Perchlorate and Volatiles of the Brine of Lake Vida (Antarctica): Implication for the in Situ Analysis of Mars Sediments

The cold (-13.4 C), cryoencapsulated, anoxic, interstitial brine of the 27 m-thick ice of Lake Vida (Victoria Valley, Antarctica) contains 49 microgram L-1 of perchlorate and 11 microgram L-1 of chlorate. Lake Vida brine (LVBr) may provide an analog for potential oxychlorine-rich subsurface brine on Mars. LVBr volatiles were analyzed by solid-phase microextraction (SPME) gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) with two different SPME fibers. With the exception of volatile organic sulfur compounds, most other volatiles observed were artifacts produced in the GC injector when the thermal decomposition products of oxychlorines reacted with reduced carbon derived from LVBr and the SPME fiber phases. Analysis of MilliQ water with perchlorate (40 microgram L-1) showed low level of organic artifacts, reflecting carbon limitation. In order to observe sample-derived organic compounds, both in analog samples and on Mars, the molar abundance of reduced carbon in a sample must exceed those of O2 and Cl2 produced during decomposition of oxychlorines. This suggests that the abundance of compounds observed by the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instruments in Sheepbed samples (CB-3, CB5, and CB6) may be controlled by an increase in the reduced-carbon/oxychlorine ratio of these samples. To increase chances of in situ detection of Martian organics during pyrolysis-GC-MS, we propose that the derivatization agents stored on SAM may be used as an external source of reduced carbon, increasing artificially the reduced-carbon to perchlorate ratio during pyrolysis, allowing the expression of more abundant and perhaps more diverse Martian organic matter.

Mars analog experiment↗

Transverse Enhancement, Longitudinal Quenching and Coulomb Sum Rule in e-$^{12}$C and e-$^{16}$O Scattering

We present a short summary of a phenomenological analysis of all available electron scattering data on 12 C 12 C (about 6600 differential cross section measurements) and on 16 O 16 O (about 250 measurements) within the framework of the quasielastic superscaling model (including Pauli blocking). All quasielastic and inelastic cross section measurements are included down to the lowest momentum transfer ? q (including photo-production data). We find that there is enhancement of the transverse quasielastic response function and quenching of the longitudinal response function at low ? q (in addition to Pauli blocking). We extract parameterizations of a ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? multiplicative low ? q "Longitudinal Quenching Factor" and an ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? additive "Transverse Enhancement" contribution. Additionally, we find that the excitation of nuclear states contribute significantly (up to 30\%) to the Coulomb Sum Rule. We extract the most accurate determination of the sum rule to date and find it to be in disagreement with random phase approximation based calculations but in reasonable agreement with recent theoretical calculations such as "First Principle Green's Function Monte Carlo".

Bodek, Arie↗

The coupling between flame surface dynamics and species mass conservation in premixed turbulent combustion

Current flamelot models based on a description of the flame surface dynamics require the closure of two inter-related equations: a transport equation for the mean reaction progress variable, (tilde)c, and a transport equation for the flame surface density, Sigma. The coupling between these two equations is investigated using direct numerical simulations (DNS) with emphasis on the correlation between the turbulent fluxes of (tilde)c, bar(pu''c''), and Sigma, (u'')(sub S)Sigma. Two different DNS databases are used in the present work: a database developed at CTR by A. Trouve and a database developed by C. J. Rutland using a different code. Both databases correspond to statistically one-dimensional premixed flames in isotropic turbulent flow. The run parameters, however, are significantly different, and the two databases correspond to different combustion regimes. It is found that in all simulated flames, the correlation between bar(pu''c'') and (u'')(sub S)Sigma is always strong. The sign, however, of the turbulent flux of (tilde)c or Sigma with respect to the mean gradients, delta(tilde)c/delta(x) or delta(Sigma)/delta(x), is case-dependent. The CTR database is found to exhibit gradient turbulent transport of (tilde)c and Sigma, whereas the Rutland DNS features counter-gradient diffusion. The two databases are analyzed and compared using various tools (a local analysis of the flow field near the flame, a classical analysis of the conservation equation for (tilde)(u''c''), and a thin flame theoretical analysis). A mechanism is then proposed to explain the discrepancies between the two databases and a preliminary simple criterion is derived to predict the occurrence of gradient/counter-gradient turbulent diffusion.

Trouve, A.↗

Mechanisms of Retention and Transport of Fission Products in Virgin and Irradiated Nuclear Graphite

To fulfill the design and licensing requirements for advanced reactors, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is specifically interested in targeted research to quantify the mechanisms of fission product transport and retention in graphitic grades that will likely be used in next-generation very/high temperature reactors, fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactors and molten salt reactors. We have examined an integrated experimental-computational approach to determine the diffusivities of selected fission products – ruthenium (Ru) and silver (Ag) in five nuclear graphite grades – POCO AXF-5Q, POCO ZXF-5Q, PCEA, IG110, and NBG-18. Experimental investigation for diffusion of other fission products (iodine, cesium, and krypton) in graphite could not be carried out due to extreme evaporation due to high vapor pressure, despite several attempts incorporating various experimental schemes. Experimental investigation with irradiated graphite could not be carried out because necessary approval to transport irradiated graphite could not be obtained due to procedural reasons at ORNL and national policy change in UK. An effort was made to “produce” by ion sputtering, but it was discontinued because the outcome did not adequately represent irradiated graphite. Thin film and “cup-and-cap” methods were employed to deposit fission products, diffusion annealed were carried out in an argon atmosphere, and concentration profiles were determined by dynamic secondary ion mass spectroscopy depth profiling technique. Regardless of graphite type, anomalous diffusion behavior of Ru (i.e., lower than expected based on Arrhenius temperature dependence) at an intermediate temperature, around 600 to 700 °C, was observed. Diffusion behavior of silver on the other hand agreed well to the Arrhenius temperature dependence although the excessive evaporation of silver hampered the accurate determination of diffusivities at temperature higher than 900 °C. In general, silver was observed to diffuse faster than Ru in the temperature range compared from 500 to 900 °C, had consistently had higher pre-exponential factor corresponding to higher jump frequency. To understand the abnormal diffusional behavior of Ru in graphite in intermediate temperature range, a detailed microstructural analysis was carried out. Clustering of Ru into particles on the surface of graphite was observed around 700 °C corresponding to de-wetting and spheroidization. This change would influence the boundary condition of diffusion, although features of clustering was much smaller (<1 mm) than the SIMS raster size (120 x 120 mm). Raman spectroscopy also demonstrated that Raman peak intensity for Ru decreased significantly for samples annealed higher than 700 °C and presence of Ru in graphite altered the crystallinity of graphite. To further elucidate the abnormal diffusion behavior observed in intermediate temperature investigated, the vibrational properties of graphene, bilayer graphene and Kr atoms in bilayer graphene were investigated with molecular dynamics. Krypton, which is a fission product, was introduced between a bilayer graphene system to evaluate (i) whether the phonon dispersion curves change with high temperature in bilayer graphene (ii) whether the addition of Kr atoms between the bilayer introduces any significant change in the vibrational properties, and (iii) whether any change in the vibrational properties can be correlated to the diffusive behavior of Kr atoms. The results show that the Kr atoms indeed exhibit an anomalous diffusive behavior at 550°C. Phonon analysis shows that a few phonon frequencies are enhanced as much as 20 to 30 % with the addition of just 0.2 at.% Kr. So, this may explain the unexpected self-diffusivity of fission products.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Improved Statistical Analysis for the Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay Matrix Element of 136Xe

Neutrinoless double beta decay nuclear matrix element (M0ν) for 136Xe was recently analyzed using a statistical approach (Phys. Rev. C 107, 045501 (2023)). In the analysis, three initial shell model effective Hamiltonians were randomly altered, and their results for 23 measured observables were used to infer credibility for the M0ν nuclear matrix element (NME) based on a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. In that analysis, a reasonable Gamow-Teller quenching factor of 0.7 was assumed for each starting effective Hamiltonian. Given that the result of the statistical analysis was sensible to this choice, we are here improving that analysis by assuming that the Gamow-Teller quenching factor is also randomly chosen within reasonabe limits for all three starting Hamiltonians. The outcomes are slightly higher expectation values and uncertainties for the M0ν NME.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris‐Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris-Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗