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At least 901 records · Page 50

Evaluating multistation phase picking algorithm phase neural operator (PhaseNO) on local seismic networks

Reliable automatic phase picking is important for many seismic applications. With the development of machine learning approaches, many algorithms are proposed, evaluated and applied to different areas. Many of these algorithms are single station based, while recent proposed methods start to combine surrounding stations into consideration in the problem of phase picking. Among these algorithms, the phase neural operator (PhaseNO) shows promising results on regional data sets comparing to existing algorithms. But there are many use cases for the local seismic networks in our community, therefore in this paper we evaluate the performance of PhaseNO on four different local data sets and compare the results to PhaseNet and EQTransformer. We used both individual phase picking metrics as well as association metrics to illustrate the performance of PhaseNO. By manually reviewing the newly detected events, we find that the PhaseNO model outperforms the single station-based approaches in the local-scale use cases due to its consideration of coherent signals from multiple stations. We also explored PhaseNO’s behaviours when only using one station, as well as gradually increasing the number of stations in the seismic network to better understand its behaviour. Overall, using the off-the-shelf machine learning based phase pickers, PhaseNO demonstrated its good performance on local-scale seismic networks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring the Role of Cryptic Nitrogen Fixers in Terrestrial Ecosystems: A Frontier in Nitrogen Cycling Research

Biological nitrogen fixation represents the largest natural flux of new nitrogen (N) into terrestrial ecosystems, providing a critical N source to support net primary productivity of both natural and agricultural systems. When they are common, symbiotic associations between plants and bacteria can add more than 100 kg N ha –1 y –1 to ecosystems. Yet, these associations are uncommon in many terrestrial ecosystems. In most cases, N inputs derive from more cryptic sources, including mutualistic and/or free-living microorganisms in soil, plant litter, decomposing roots and wood, lichens, insects, and mosses, among others. Unfortunately, large gaps remain in the understanding of cryptic N fixation. Here, we conducted a literature review to explore rates, patterns, and controls of cryptic N fixation in both unmanaged and agricultural ecosystems. Our analysis indicates that, as is common with N fixation, rates are highly variable across most cryptic niches, with N inputs in any particular cryptic niche ranging from near zero to more than 20 kg ha –1 y –1 . Such large variation underscores the need for more comprehensive measurements of N fixation by organisms not in symbiotic relationships with vascular plants in terrestrial ecosystems, as well as identifying the factors that govern cryptic N fixation rates. We highlight several challenges, opportunities, and priorities in this important research area, and we propose a conceptual model that posits an interacting hierarchy of biophysical and biogeochemical controls over N fixation that should generate valuable new hypotheses and research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Eco-evolutionary optimality as a means to improve vegetation and land-surface models

Global vegetation and land-surface models embody interdisciplinary scientific understanding of the behaviour of plants and ecosystems, and are indispensable to project the impacts of environmental change on vegetation and the interactions between vegetation and climate. Furthermore, systematic errors and persistently large differences among carbon and water cycle projections by different models highlight the limitations of current process formulations. In this review, focusing on core plant functions in the terrestrial carbon and water cycles, we show how unifying hypotheses derived from eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) principles can provide novel, parameter-sparse representations of plant and vegetation processes. We present case studies that demonstrate how EEO generates parsimonious representations of core, leaf-level processes that are individually testable and supported by evidence. EEO approaches to photosynthesis and primary production, dark respiration and stomatal behaviour are ripe for implementation in global models. EEO approaches to other important traits, including the leaf economics spectrum and applications of EEO at the community level are active research areas. Independently tested modules emerging from EEO studies could profitably be integrated into modelling frameworks that account for the multiple time scales on which plants and plant communities adjust to environmental change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

GHEP WIBT (Guidelines for Home Energy Professionals Weatherization Installer Badges Toolkit) [SWR-20-69]

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) are collaborating with the home energy retrofit industry to support the development of skilled workers. The Installer Badges Toolkit provides a flexible, customizable, and voluntary approach to training and skills recognition for WAP implementers, utility programs, private-sector workers, and contractors. In Fiscal Year 2018, DOE, along with the Crew Leader scheme committee, determined the Retrofit Installer Technician (RIT) Job Task Analysis (JTA) could be eliminated and its tasks inserted in the Crew Leader JTA. The RIT tasks became the basis of the Installer Badges. The Badges Toolkit was updated in 2020 to add licensing and copyright agreements. Users must cite the copyright information when using or distributing copies of the Badges Toolkit in any way. The technical content has remained unchanged from previous versions of the Badges Toolkit. The Toolkit for home retrofits consists of 25 Badges, each representing different energy efficiency tasks that an installer could perform on a home. Each Badge defines the desired outcome, criteria to verify, applicable material requirements, and references to Standard Work Specifications (SWS) or other relevant standards. The Badges provide a consistent approach to training by ensuring that installers in different regions are learning the same skills nationwide. Organizations can also customize the Toolkit by choosing only those Badges that are relevant to their program. The Badges Toolkit includes five pieces: "How to Use the Badges Toolkit" provides a brief overview of how a Grantee, Subgrantee, or training provider may approach using the toolkit. The "Badges Toolkit: Worksheet" includes what to consider when determining whether and how to best incorporate the Badges into a weatherization assistance program. The "Crew Leader Job Task Analysis Spreadsheet" indicates how the Badges align with specific areas of the JTA. The "Installer Badges Passport" features separate pages for each Badge, which include places for the installer and the supervisor/trainer to record the number of times a task has been successfully completed. The "Installer Badges Verification Criteria" includes sample inspection checklists for each Badge. These can be modified as needed based on approved variance requests or more stringent requirements. They also provide a basis for consistent inspections and awarding of Badges. Note: All elements of the Badges Toolkit are designed for use by potential program implementers. They are not off-the-shelf products intended for immediate deployment. Program implementers must review and modify as needed, revise verification criteria to match local requirements, complete worksheets, and otherwise define the parameters of their own badging program.

Desai, Jal↗

Emerging Technologies for Improved Plug Load Management Systems: Learning Behavior Algorithms and Automatic and Dynamic Load Detection

Plug loads are responsible for a significant portion of the energy consumed in commercial buildings, yet their distributed and ever-changing nature makes them one of the most challenging building end uses to manage. Plug load management systems exist today that utilize smart plugs to meter and control devices at the outlet level, however, their uptake has been relatively slow in part due to the significant labor required for installation and maintenance. Learning behavior algorithms and automatic and dynamic load detection have been identified as two technology areas that could accelerate the adoption of plug load management systems by reducing these labor demands and providing additional energy efficiency and non-energy benefits. Learning behavior algorithms learn occupant behavior and adjust plug load management systems accordingly, allowing for the automatic creation of optimized control schedules. Automatic and dynamic load detection allows a plug load management system to identify devices as they are plugged in to a building and keeps the system up to date as devices are moved throughout a building. In this paper, we present our findings with respect to the current state of these two technologies based on a review of existing research and patents, as well as a series of interviews with companies working in the plug load space. We have found that, as of now, no commercialized solutions exist for these plug load technologies and that more work is needed to bring them to market. In addition, we summarize our findings related to the technology challenges, market barriers, drivers, and opportunities for these technologies moving forward.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Internal consistency and diversity scenario development: A comparative framework to evaluate energy model scenarios

Energy modeling frameworks and scenario analysis help us explore the potential impact of our actions and uncertainties in future energy systems. Despite their importance, there is no systematic procedure for evaluating the scenario development process. In a literature review, we identify two core elements of the scenario development process: internal consistency and diversity which are oftentimes missing from scenarios. Here, to address this gap, we create the Internal consistency and Diversity Scenario Development (IDSD) comparative framework which aims to assess the feasibility and diversity of scenarios for a given energy model. With this framework, we review commonly used energy models and demonstrate our framework on their scenarios. The IDSD comparative framework can serve several purposes absent from previous scenario development work by aiding energy modelers and report writers in crafting high-quality scenarios. First, the IDSD is a reflective tool which can improve the quality of the scenario development process, enabling a comparative assessment of energy models and scenarios. Second, the IDSD can provide guidance to modeling frameworks with existing scenarios and those still in development; this feedback will enable modelers to improve the development and the communication of the limitations of their scenarios. Third, this study has highlighted areas for improvement in the scenario development of some commonly used energy model frameworks. Finally, there is a complete lack of explanation regarding the stakeholder selection process. Addressing these identified items could increase opportunities for advanced energy technology uptake and improve our options for achieving a more resilient energy system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Large Game Distribution Camera Study at Los Alamos National Laboratory

The unique habitats at the Laboratory support a diverse community of wildlife. The habitat types that include Pinon Juniper, Ponderosa Pine, and Mixed-conifer forests each provide different resources important for a variety of species. Wildlife monitoring for large game animals can be challenging because they avoid interactions with humans, and prefer undeveloped areas. This study was conducted to analyze the distribution of predators and other game animals seasonally across the Laboratory. This research informs decisions regarding wildlife management recommendations for conservation and protection. This study utilized game cameras to remotely monitor wildlife. As camera technology has advanced, game cameras have become adequate for documenting individuals, and are commonly used in wildlife studies on predation, abundance, occupancy, diversity, and endangered species detection. Twenty cameras were placed across the LANL landscape using a modified systematic sampling design. They were deployed in February 2018 and retrieved in January 2019, thus each camera sampled for one full year. All images were reviewed and the species, number, age, and sex of all animals in the photo were recorded. Here we present data for the most abundant species encountered: deer, elk, coyote, bear, bobcat, mountain lion, and fox respectively. The data were summarized by species and season. Future work will include occupancy modelling for each species. This will allow the development of heat maps showing species distributions across the Laboratory.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program FY 2020 Annual Summary of Completed Projects

ORNL has established a program with four complementary subprograms to meet its LDRD objectives and to fulfill the particular needs of the laboratory. A provision for multiple routes of access to ORNL LDRD funds maximizes the likelihood that novel ideas with scientific and technological merit will be recognized and supported. The ORNL LDRD Program comprises the following four subprograms: 1) The Director’s R&D Program supports projects that advance research frontiers, capabilities, and expertise at ORNL in key strategic areas. 2) The Seed Program supports innovative high-risk/high-reward research to the proof-of-principle stage. 3) The Strategic Hire Program supports the research of key new staff whose expertise and capabilities address a critical strategic need for the laboratory. 4) The Distinguished Staff Fellowships assist the laboratory in bringing in exceptional early-career scientists to refresh and expand its scientific and technical expertise. The total ORNL LDRD Program budget authorized by DOE for FY 2020 was $\$$55 million. FY 2020 allocations totaled $\$$52.5 million and supported 153 projects. An additional $\$$95,827 was allocated to administrative costs for conducting proposal reviews. Overall, 96.4% of the allocated funds were spent. The expenditure of $\$$50.6 million was about 3.2% of the laboratory’s total budget of $\$$1,572 million for operating and capital expenses, which is well below the maximum of 6% allowed by DOE Order 413.2C and is in accordance with Section 309 of Division D of the Consolidated Appropriations Act.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

CAN-D: A Modular Four-Step Pipeline for Comprehensively Decoding Controller Area Network Data

Controller area networks (CANs) are a broadcast protocol for real-time communication of critical vehicle subsystems. Original equipment manufacturers of passenger vehicles hold secret their mappings of CAN data to vehicle signals, and these definitions vary according to make, model, and year. Without these mappings, the wealth of real-time vehicle information hidden in the CAN packets is uninterpretable, severely impeding vehicle-related research, including CAN cybersecurity and privacy studies, aftermarket tuning, efficiency and performance monitoring, and fault diagnosis to name a few. Guided by the four-part CAN signal definition, we present CAN-D (CAN-Decoder), a modular, four-step pipeline for identifying each signal's boundaries (start bit and length), endianness (byte ordering), signedness (bit-to-integer encoding), and by leveraging diagnostic standards, augmenting a subset of the extracted signals with meaningful, physical interpretation. En route to CAN-D, we provide a comprehensive review of the CAN signal reverse engineering research. All previous methods ignore endianness and signedness, rendering them incapable of decoding many standard CAN signal definitions. Incorporating endianness grows the search space from 128 to 4.72E21 signal tokenizations and introduces a web of changing dependencies. In response, we formulate, formally analyze, and provide an efficient solution to an optimization problem, allowing identification of the optimal set of signal boundaries and byte orderings. In addition, we provide two novel, state-of-the-art signal boundary classifiers—both of which are superior to previous approaches in precision and recall in three different test scenarios—and the first signedness classification algorithm, which exhibits a $>$ 97% F-score. Altogether, CAN-D is the only solution with the potential to extract any CAN signal that is also the state of the art. In evaluation on 10 vehicles of different makes, CAN-D's average $\ell ^1$ error is five times better (81% less) than all previous methods and exhibits lower average error, even when considering only signals that meet prior methods’ assumptions. Finally, CAN-D is implemented in lightweight hardware, allowing for an on-board diagnostic (OBD-II) plugin for real-time in-vehicle CAN decoding.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development and validation of a 30-day mortality index based on pre-existing medical administrative data from 13,323 COVID-19 patients: The Veterans Health Administration COVID-19 (VACO) Index

Background Available COVID-19 mortality indices are limited to acute inpatient data. Using nationwide medical administrative data available prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection from the US Veterans Health Administration (VA), we developed the VA COVID-19 (VACO) 30-day mortality index and validated the index in two independent, prospective samples. Methods and findings We reviewed SARS-CoV-2 testing results within the VA between February 8 and August 18, 2020. The sample was split into a development cohort (test positive between March 2 and April 15, 2020), an early validation cohort (test positive between April 16 and May 18, 2020), and a late validation cohort (test positive between May 19 and July 19, 2020). Our logistic regression model in the development cohort considered demographics (age, sex, race/ethnicity), and pre-existing medical conditions and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) derived from ICD-10 diagnosis codes. Weights were fixed to create the VACO Index that was then validated by comparing area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) in the early and late validation cohorts and among important validation cohort subgroups defined by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region. We also evaluated calibration curves and the range of predictions generated within age categories. 13,323 individuals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (median age: 63 years; 91% male; 42% non-Hispanic Black). We observed 480/3,681 (13%) deaths in development, 253/2,151 (12%) deaths in the early validation cohort, and 403/7,491 (5%) deaths in the late validation cohort. Age, multimorbidity described with CCI, and a history of myocardial infarction or peripheral vascular disease were independently associated with mortality–no other individual comorbid diagnosis provided additional information. The VACO Index discriminated mortality in development (AUC = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.77–0.81), and in early (AUC = 0.81 95% CI: 0.78–0.83) and late (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.86) validation. The VACO Index allows personalized estimates of 30-day mortality after COVID-19 infection. For example, among those aged 60–64 years, overall mortality was estimated at 9% (95% CI: 6–11%). The Index further discriminated risk in this age stratum from 4% (95% CI: 3–7%) to 21% (95% CI: 12–31%), depending on sex and comorbid disease. Conclusion Prior to infection, demographics and comorbid conditions can discriminate COVID-19 mortality risk overall and within age strata. The VACO Index reproducibly identified individuals at substantial risk of COVID-19 mortality who might consider continuing social distancing, despite relaxed state and local guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Comprehensive Review of Working Fluids for High-Temperature Heat Pumps: History, Selection, and Evaluation

High-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) are essential for enhancing energy efficiency across various industrial applications, especially in terms of integrating with renewable energy sources and recovering waste heat. This article thoroughly investigates suitable working fluids for HTHPs, highlighting the evolution from traditional refrigerants to contemporary alternatives with low global warming potential (GWP). It proposes comprehensive selection criteria for these working fluids, pre-selects low-GWP working fluids, and outlines a screening methodology. The pre-selected low-GWP working fluids are evaluated for applications in three typical industrial scenarios involving HTHPs. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that regulatory compliance and environmental impacts significantly influence the development of next-generation refrigerants. The choice of working fluids is closely linked to the types of vapor compression cycles, tailored to the specific industrial applications for HTHPs. This study emphasizes areas for future research, including the development of innovative working fluids; integrated strategies that account for performance, safety, and regulatory standards; alignment of HTHP components; exploration of natural working fluids; and broadening the applications of existing working fluids.

Compression↗

Topography and Functional Traits Control the Distribution of Key Shrub Plant Functional Types in Low-Arctic Tundra: Supporting Data

High-resolution classification maps derived from occupied aerial systems (UASs). The UAS data were collected in August 2021 using a Skydio 2+ drone equipped with a 4K resolution red-green-blue (RGB) camera (2024 Skydio Inc) and a 3DR SOLO Quadcopter carried a Parrot Sequoia+ Multispectral Sensor (2023 Parrot Drone SAS). This package includes vegetation classification maps at four locations around Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic (NGEE Arctic) Council watershed study site on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The classification maps were generated using a combination of RGB and canopy height information. The map data and metadata are provided as ENVI image (.dat) and text (.txt, *hdr) formats. Additional map quicklooks are provided as GIS *.kml files. These datasets are provided in support of Yang et al., (In review), “Topography and Functional Traits Control the Distribution of Key Shrub Plant Functional Types in Low-Arctic Tundra”.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensory integration for neuroprostheses: from functional benefits to neural correlates

In the field of sensory neuroprostheses, one ultimate goal is for individuals to perceive artificial somatosensory information and use the prosthesis with high complexity that resembles an intact system. To this end, research has shown that stimulation elicited somatosensory information improves prosthesis perception and task performance. While studies strive to achieve sensory integration, a crucial phenomenon that entails naturalistic interaction with the environment, this topic has not been commensurately reviewed. Therefore, here we present a perspective for understanding sensory integration in neuroprostheses. First, we review the engineering aspects and functional outcomes in sensory neuroprosthesis studies. In this context, we summarize studies that have suggested sensory integration. We focus on how they have used stimulation-elicited percepts to maximize and improve the reliability of somatosensory information. Next, we review studies that have suggested multisensory integration. These works have demonstrated that congruent and simultaneous multisensory inputs provided cognitive benefits such that an individual experiences a greater sense of authority over prosthesis movements (i.e., agency) and perceives the prosthesis as part of their own (i.e., ownership). Thereafter, we present the theoretical and neuroscience framework of sensory integration. We investigate how behavioral models and neural recordings have been applied in the context of sensory integration. Sensory integration models developed from intact-limb individuals have led the way to sensory neuroprosthesis studies to demonstrate multisensory integration. Neural recordings have been used to show how multisensory inputs are processed across cortical areas. Lastly, we discuss some ongoing research and challenges in achieving and understanding sensory integration in sensory neuroprostheses. Here, resolving these challenges would help to develop future strategies to improve the sensory feedback of a neuroprosthetic system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Brief Overview of Reactive Transport Codes Used in CO 2 Applications

Reactive transport modelling consists of computational and numerical models that describe the coupled physical, chemical, mechanical, and biological processes interacting with each other over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. This report reviews some of the reactive transport codes available in the literature for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) applications and can assist the scientific community with the applicability of each code to solve a specific problem. Approaches implemented in these codes can be categorized in three groups: (i) continuum-scale, (ii) pore-scale, and (iii) hybrid-scale approaches. Theoretical foundations, numerical implementations, and application examples using the models are described. In the continuum approach, flow and transport are formulated in terms of a representative control volume of the medium and coupled with geochemical reactions. The medium is characterized by bulk parameters such as porosity, permeability, or reactive surface area. In the pore-scale approach, each point of space in the pore network is occupied by either a fluid or solid phase. The pore-scale approach requires an exact knowledge of the spatial and temporal phase distribution. In the hybrid-scale approach, media are described by multiple characteristic length-scales, with some regions using a pore-scale approach while others used a continuum approach.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Experimental review of the performances of protective coatings for interconnects in solid oxide fuel cells

Ferritic stainless-steel interconnects are used in solid oxide fuel cells; however, coatings are required to improve their performance. Although several types of coatings have been proposed, they have been scarcely investigated under similar conditions. This study compares the characteristics of uncoated Crofer 22 APU and eight different coatings on Crofer 22 APU for up to 3,000 hours at 800°C. The coatings were deposited at various research laboratories around the world, and the experiments were performed at Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden. Cross-sections of the samples were analysed using scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. The (Co,Mn)-based coated steels showed more than 50-fold lower chromium evaporation and at least 3 times thinner Cr 2 O 3 scale thickness compared to uncoated steel. The coated steel samples showed lower area-specific resistance (ASR) values than the uncoated steel after 3,000 hours of exposure, irrespective of the coating thickness, composition and deposition method.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Review of Recent Progress in Plasma-Facing Material Joints and Composites in the FRONTIER U.S.-Japan Collaboration

The plasma-facing components (PFCs) of future fusion reactors will have intricate structures and require multiple materials because no one material can simultaneously satisfy all the requirements of the component. The dissimilar material joints in PFCs must withstand extreme thermal and stress gradients under neutron irradiation. The Fusion Research Oriented to Neutron Irradiation and Tritium Behavior at Material Interfaces (FRONTIER) U.S.-Japan collaboration seeks to explore and explain the behavior of internal solid interfaces in PFCs under neutron irradiation. The first step of the collaboration was to identify the leading PFCs that should be studied further and prepare them for the next step, which will include neutron irradiation. Different strategies for material development are being pursued worldwide to produce robust PFCs. Here, in this work, an overview is presented of some of the most promising materials in the areas of copper alloys, tungsten-copper composites, tungsten-steel composites, additively manufactured tungsten, particle-reinforced tungsten, and tungsten and SiC fiber composites. Each material’s fabrication and benefits are described, and some discussion of remaining questions is given.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Advancing Porous Carbons: Understanding the Importance of Surface Chemistry for the Energy–Environment Nexus

This review intends, in a critical way, the comprehensive view of the importance of porous carbons surface chemistry for their applications in an energy− environment nexus. Surface chemistry is presented as a combination of functional heteroatom-containing groups, dopants, and structural defects. First, we briefly address carbon surface chemical environment and the methods of its modification and characterization, indicating their practical limitations. Then, the effects of surface chemistry on separation, catalysis, energy storage, sensing and microwave absorption are introduced. Besides a critical analysis of published findings on these topics, we also include our views on the advancement in the processes which rely on porous carbons surface chemistry, and identify strategic areas and directions that should deserve further attention. We focus on new findings and important original contributions to the field. Since the community of carbon researchers grows following the strategic application of these materials, the role of functional groups, dopants and structural defects in various cutting-edge applications is emphasized, showing the progress in the field and the evolution of findings. A clear determination of the effects of carbon surface is often a challenge since carbons porosity and the locations of specific bonds/sites/ defects in the carbon texture provide nanoconfinement effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The future of the NPT: REVCON and beyond

The Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), with its quinquennial review conferences (RevCons), has become the foundation of the international nonproliferation regime over the course of its 50-year history. With more states parties than any other arms control agreement (currently 191), the Treaty provides a legally binding framework for all states parties, constraining proliferation of nuclear weapons and committing the five recognized states who possess nuclear weapons to work toward disarmament. The NPT has enjoyed wide success in constraining the spread of nuclear weapons. Only one state party has left the agreement and gone on to acquire these weapons, and the overall track record of compliance with IAEA safeguards has been robust. However, for all its effectiveness in the area of nonproliferation, its achievements on the disarmament front have been relatively unimpressive. While the NWS – most notably the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia – have decreased the overall size of their nuclear arsenals significantly since 1970, these arsenals have remained an important feature of NWS security policies. The limited progress towards disarmament has created friction between the NNWS and NWS and has been the source of mounting tension within the NPT regime. The 2020 RevCon, the 50th anniversary of the NPT and 25th anniversary of its indefinite extension, faces a range of contentious challenges, old and new, which call into question the Treaty’s future viability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗