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Real-Time Distribution System State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

We report state estimation is a fundamental task in power systems. Although distribution systems are increasingly equipped with sensing devices and smart meters, measurements are typically reported at different rates and asynchronously; these aspects pose severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms, which are designed to process batches of data collected in a synchronous manner from all the measurement units. In this paper, we develop a novel state estimation algorithm to continuously update the estimate of the state based on measurements received in an asynchronous manner from measurement units. The synthesis of the algorithm hinges on a proximal-point type method, implemented in an online fashion, and capable of processing measurements received sequentially from sensors. A performance analysis is presented by providing bounds on the estimation error in terms of the mean and variance that hold at each iteration and asymptotically. The scheme is also compared with a more traditional Weighted Least Squares estimator that compensates for the lack of measurement data by using, as pseudo measurements, the measurement retrieved during a certain time window. Numerical simulations on the IEEE 37-bus feeder corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Did You Win the GPU Cloud Lottery? Benchmarking from TFLOPS to Tokens/$

Cloud GPUs are commonly assumed to deliver consistent performance for a given GPU model. This assumption does not always hold: cloud providers employ diverse system configurations and virtualization mechanisms, and GPUs themselves exhibit non-negligible manufacturing variability (the silicon lottery). In this work, we present a large-scale measurement study of GPU performance variability across 11 cloud providers, covering over 3,500 physical GPUs and 6,800 benchmark runs. Our hierarchical analysis shows that while execution-level variation stays below 9%, performance varies by up to 38% across devices and providers for the same GPU model. Regression analysis indicates that driver- and OS-related software factors contribute less than 1% of the variance; instead, silicon lottery effects dominate observed performance variation, and cloud providers further amplify them through persistent, systematic second-order effects.

Slynko, Platon [Silicon Data, New York, USA] (ORCI↗

Convergence Study in Global Sensitivity Analysis

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a common method used to randomly sample a range of scenarios. The associated error follows a predictable rate of convergence of $1/\sqrt{N}$, such that quadrupling the sample size halves the error. This method is often employed in performing global sensitivity analysis which computes sensitivity indices, measuring fractional contributions of uncertain model inputs to the total output variance. In this study, several models are used to observe the rate of decay in the MC error in the estimation of the conditional variance, the total variance in the output, and the global sensitivity indices. The purpose is to examine the rate of convergence of the error in existing specialized, albeit MC-based, sampling methods for estimation of the sensitivity indices. It was found that the conditional variances and sensitivity indices all follow the $1/\sqrt{N}$ convergence rate. Future work will test the convergence of observables from more complex models such as ignition time in combustion.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The relationship between velocity gradients and magnetic turbulence in the solar wind

The correlations among the time derivative of the solar-wind velocity, the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the IMF turbulence level are examined to test the idea that interaction between two colliding solar-wind streams can generate turbulence in the solar wind and the IMF. Data obtained by Explorer 33 on the solar wind and IMF are described, and the analysis techniques are outlined. The results indicate that the IMF turbulence level, as measured by the variance, is correlated with the existence of positive velocity gradients in the solar wind. It is noted that while the variance is an increasing function of the field magnitude, it is also independently correlated with the solar-wind velocity gradient.

Garrett, H. B.↗

Extension of four-dimensional atmospheric models

The cloud data bank, the 4-D atmospheric model, and a set of computer programs designed to simulate meteorological conditions for any location above the earth are described in turns of space vehicle design and simulation of vehicle reentry trajectories. Topics discussed include: the relationship between satellite and surface observed cloud cover using LANDSAT 1 photographs and including the effects of cloud shadows; extension of the 4-D model to the altitude of 52 km; and addition of the u and v wind components to the 4-D model of means and variances at 1 km levels from the surface to 25 km. Results of the cloud cover analysis are presented along with the stratospheric model and the tropospheric wind profiles.

Fowler, M. G.↗

On the determination of the depth of EAS development maximum using the lateral distribution of Cerenkov light at distances 150 m from EAS axis

The Samarkand extensive air showers (EAS) array was used to measure the mean and individual lateral distribution functions (LDF) of EAS Cerenkov light. The analysis of the individual parameters b showed that the mean depth of EAS maximum and the variance of the depth distribution of maxima of EAS with energies of approx. 2x10 to the 15th power eV can properly be described in terms of Kaidalov-Martirosyan quark-gluon string model (QGSM).

Aliev, N.↗

Nonlinear probabilistic finite element models of laminated composite shells

A probabilistic finite element analysis procedure for laminated composite shells has been developed. A total Lagrangian finite element formulation, employing a degenerated 3-D laminated composite shell with the full Green-Lagrange strains and first-order shear deformable kinematics, forms the modeling foundation. The first-order second-moment technique for probabilistic finite element analysis of random fields is employed and results are presented in the form of mean and variance of the structural response. The effects of material nonlinearity are included through the use of a rate-independent anisotropic plasticity formulation with the macroscopic point of view. Both ply-level and micromechanics-level random variables can be selected, the latter by means of the Aboudi micromechanics model. A number of sample problems are solved to verify the accuracy of the procedures developed and to quantify the variability of certain material type/structure combinations. Experimental data is compared in many cases, and the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to check the probabilistic results. In general, the procedure is quite effective in modeling the mean and variance response of the linear and nonlinear behavior of laminated composite shells.

Engelstad, S. P.↗

Seasonal-to-Interannual Precipitation Variability and Predictability in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere System

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.

Koster, Randal D.↗

An Intercomparison Between Radar Reflectivity and the IR Cloud Classification Technique for the TOGA-COARE Area

Satellite infrared (IR) and visible (VIS) images from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere - Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) experiment are investigated through the use of Clustering Analysis. The clusters are obtained from the values of IR and VIS counts and the local variance for both channels. The clustering procedure is based on the standardized histogram of each variable obtained from 179 pairs of images. A new approach to classify high clouds using only IR and the clustering technique is proposed. This method allows the separation of the enhanced convection in two main classes: convective tops, more closely related to the most active core of the storm, and convective systems, which produce regions of merged, thick anvil clouds. The resulting classification of different portions of cloudiness is compared to the radar reflectivity field for intensive events. Convective Systems and Convective Tops are followed during their life cycle using the IR clustering method. The areal coverage of precipitation and features related to convective and stratiform rain is obtained from the radar for each stage of the evolving Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). In order to compare the IR clustering method with a simple threshold technique, two IR thresholds (Tir) were used to identify different portions of cloudiness, Tir=240K which roughly defines the extent of all cloudiness associated with the MCS, and Tir=220K which indicates the presence of deep convection. It is shown that the IR clustering technique can be used as a simple alternative to identify the actual portion of convective and stratiform rainfall.

Carvalho, L. M. V.↗

Use of three-cornered hat error estimates in MERRA-2 to guide an improved reanalysis-Part 1

The three-cornered hat (3CH) method estimates the uncertainties of three different co-located model or observational data sets (Anthes and Rieckh, 2018; Sjoberg et al., 2021). Rieckh et al. (2021) used the 3CH method to compare the random error statistics of different global forecast and reanalysis models, as well as radio occultation (RO) and radiosonde observations. That study showed that the MERRA-2 reanalysis, while having smaller errors in the stratosphere than its predecessor MERRA, had larger errors in the troposphere than many of the other data sets analyzed. The MERRA-2 errors were particularly large in the tropics. In a collaborative effort between UCAR’s COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Meteorology) program and NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), we carried out further 3CH error diagnostics to help isolate the causes of these larger errors and help guide the development of an improved reanalysis. This presentation summarizes random error statistics associated with MERRA-2, ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis, and COSMIC-2 (C2) RO observations. We compute 3CH error variance estimates of refractivity, as well as temperature and specific humidity using UCAR’s COSMIC Data Analysis and Archive Center (CDAAC) improved 1D-variational (1D-Var) retrieval (wetPf2) over 15 latitude bands from 45S to 45N. The 1D-Var retrievals of specific humidity and temperature for C2 use NCEP’s Global Forecast System (GFS) as the background. Anthes et al. (2021) showed that it gives accurate estimates of temperature and specific humidity in the tropics and subtropics, even in the challenging environment of intense Hurricane Dorian (2019). This presentation confirms the previous results that MERRA-2 has significantly larger errors in the tropics and subtropics than either C2 or ERA5. Its errors are larger between 30S and 30N compared to 30-45 N-S latitudes, and are also larger over land compared to oceans. Most of the MERRA-2 refractivity errors come from specific humidity, except over land below 3 km where temperature errors are large. These results suggest that moist convection and atmospheric boundary layer physics in MERRA-2 may be responsible for a significant part of the higher uncertainties. These results are being used to guide GMAO in developing an improved next-generation reanalysis, as shown in a companion presentation submitted to this conference (El Akkraoui et al., 2021), which extends this study and describes improvements to MERRA-2 leading to the next GMAO reanalysis.

Jeremiah Sjoberg↗

An analysis of various solution strategies and perturbations on inputs of the reactor shielding problem - 25584

Previous work focused on the use of automated variance reduction parameters for use in a fixed source reactor shielding problem to solve for ex-core particle transport results. The current work assesses that strategy in light of a fully-coupled Monte Carlo problem run as a critical system with parallel processing and the use of moderate variance reduction parameters set manually. The results from the two strategies compare well. Also, results are compared between the MCNP, Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) and Shift computer codes. Shift and VERA deliver similar results and compare well to MCNP. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DEEPEN Global Standardized Categorical Exploration Datasets for Magmatic Plays

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. As part of the development of the DEEPEN 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) methodology for magmatic plays (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical), weights needed to be developed for use in the weighted sum of the different favorability index models produced from geoscientific exploration datasets. This was done using two different approaches: one based on expert opinions, and one based on statistical learning. This GDR submission includes the datasets used to produce the statistical learning-based weights. While expert opinions allow us to include more nuanced information in the weights, expert opinions are subject to human bias. Data-centric or statistical approaches help to overcome these potential human biases by focusing on and drawing conclusions from the data alone. The drawback is that, to apply these types of approaches, a dataset is needed. Therefore, we attempted to build comprehensive standardized datasets mapping anomalies in each exploration dataset to each component of each play. This data was gathered through a literature review focused on magmatic hydrothermal plays along with well-characterized areas where superhot or supercritical conditions are thought to exist. Datasets were assembled for all three play types, but the hydrothermal dataset is the least complete due to its relatively low priority. For each known or assumed resource, the dataset states what anomaly in each exploration dataset is associated with each component of the system. The data is only a semi-quantitative, where values are either high, medium, or low, relative to background levels. In addition, the dataset has significant gaps, as not every possible exploration dataset has been collected and analyzed at every known or suspected geothermal resource area, in the context of all possible play types. The following training sites were used to assemble this dataset: - Conventional magmatic hydrothermal: Akutan (from AK PFA), Oregon Cascades PFA, Glass Buttes OR, Mauna Kea (from HI PFA), Lanai (from HI PFA), Mt St Helens Shear Zone (from WA PFA), Wind River Valley (From WA PFA), Mount Baker (from WA PFA). - Superhot EGS: Newberry (EGS demonstration project), Coso (EGS demonstration project), Geysers (EGS demonstration project), Eastern Snake River Plain (EGS demonstration project), Utah FORGE, Larderello, Kakkonda, Taupo Volcanic Zone, Acoculco, Krafla. - Supercritical: Coso, Geysers, Salton Sea, Larderello, Los Humeros, Taupo Volcanic Zone, Krafla, Reyjanes, Hengill. **Disclaimer: Treat the supercritical fluid anomalies with skepticism. They are based on assumptions due to the general lack of confirmed supercritical fluid encounters and samples at the sites included in this dataset, at the time of assembling the dataset. The main assumption was that the supercritical fluid in a given geothermal system has shared properties with the hydrothermal fluid, which may not be the case in reality. Once the datasets were assembled, principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to each. PCA is an unsupervised statistical learning technique, meaning that labels are not required on the data, that summarized the directions of variance in the data. This approach was chosen because our labels are not certain, i.e., we do not know with 100% confidence that superhot resources exist at all the assumed positive areas. We also do not have data for any known non-geothermal areas, meaning that it would be challenging to apply a supervised learning technique. In order to generate weights from the PCA, an analysis of the PCA loading values was conducted. PCA loading values represent how much a feature is contributing to each principal component, and therefore the overall variance in the data.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Principal component analysis of computed emission lines from protostellar jets

A very important issue concerning protostellar jets is the mechanism behind their formation. Obtaining information on the region at the base of a jet can shed light on the subject, and some years ago this was done through a search for a rotational signature in the jet line spectrum. The existence of such signatures, however, remains controversial. In order to contribute to the clarification of this issue, in this paper we show that principal component analysis (PCA) can potentially help to distinguish between rotation and precession effects in protostellar jet images. This method reduces the dimensions of the data, facilitating the efficient extraction of information from large data sets such as those arising from integral field spectroscopy. PCA transforms the system of correlated coordinates into a system of uncorrelated coordinates, the eigenvectors, ordered by principal components of decreasing variance. The projection of the data on these coordinates produces images called tomograms, while eigenvectors can be displayed as eigenspectra. The combined analysis of both can allow the identification of patterns correlated to a particular physical property that would otherwise remain hidden, and can help to separate the effects of physically uncorrelated phenomena in the data. These are, for example, rotation and precession in the kinematics of a stellar jet. In order to show the potential of PCA analysis, we apply it to synthetic spectro-imaging datacubes generated as an output of numerical simulations of protostellar jets. In this way we generate a benchmark with which a PCA diagnostics of real observations can be confronted. Using the computed emission line profiles for [O i]λ6300 and [S ii]λ6716, we recover and analyze the effects of rotation and precession in tomograms generated by PCA. We show that different combinations of the eigenvectors can be used to enhance and to identify the rotation features present in the data. Our results indicate that PCA can be useful for disentangling rotation from precession in jets with an inclination of the jet with respect to the plane of the sky as high as 45°. We have been able to recover the initially imposed rotation jet profile for models at a moderate inclination angle (ϕ≪15°) and without precession.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Performance analysis of digital FM demodulators for fading channels in the threshold region

The quasi-optimum digital FM demodulators for fading channels reported earlier (1975) reflected the system performance accurately under high signal to noise ratio conditions. In this paper, the prediction of the system performance for low SNR values is considered. A new set of error variance algorithms is developed from the filter algorithm assuming a Gaussian distribution for the state estimation errors and taking the effect of high frequency terms into consideration. Simulation analysis for an FM system with Rician fading channel shows that these algorithms predict the system performance accurately in the threshold region.

Dharamsi, M. T.↗

The role of analysis error in the convergence of reanalysis production streams in MERRA-2

Due to production time constraints, most reanalyses are produced in multiple parallel streams instead of a single continuous one. These streams cover separate segments of the reanalysis time period with short overlaps to allow reconstruction of the official record. A fundamental assumption justifying this approach is that the streams will be assimilating the same observations during the periods where they overlap, and so will eventually converge to a similar atmospheric state, making discontinuities at stream junctions negligible. This assumption is revisited in this work by examining the impact of analysis error on the differences between MERRA-2 overlapping streams in three historical periods. Comparison results are shown in terms of standard deviations of stream differences as well as the spectral decomposition of the variance of their differences. Residual differences were found at the end of each year of overlap, with larger values observed in the earlier segments of the presatellite era. By drawing parallels with analysis error statistics estimated from the GMAO OSSE system, these differences are shown to reflect the varying constraint of data with the varying observing network, and to further carry the imprint of errors that the data assimilation process is not able to mitigate. As such, they are unlikely to be reduced by longer spinup periods. The ability of data assimilation to ensure continuity in the parallel streams is put into question when the observing system coverage is inadequate or simply when the data assimilation system as a whole is suboptimal.

Amal El Akkraoui↗

Ocean-Land Teleconnections and Chaotic Atmospheric Variability in Climate Models, with Implications for Real-World Behavior

This study introduces a unique approach to estimating a fundamental but unmeasurable property of Nature: ρo 2 , the fraction of the variance of a given meteorological variable that is determined by boundary forcing (specifically, SSTs) as opposed to chaotic atmospheric dynamics. Here, we focus on continental monthly-averaged near-surface air temperature, or T2M. Rather than determining the fractions of SST-explained T2M variance found for a specific atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and then assuming that these fractions also represent Nature, we perform an analysis that entails: (i) evaluating a specific AGCM’s ability to capture observed variability with an infinite number of ensemble members, (ii) quantifying the degree to which different modeling systems agree on SST-land teleconnections, and (iii) combining these results into our novel estimates of ρo 2 . The derived ρo 2 fields suggest, with caveats, that AGCMs tend to overestimate the fraction of explained T2M variance (the signal-to-total variance ratio) in the Tropics.

Randal D Koster↗

Automatic Analyte-Ion Recognition and Background Removal for Ambient Mass-Spectrometric Data Based on Cross-Correlation

Ambient mass spectrometry is a powerful approach for rapid, high-throughput, and direct sample analysis. Due to the open-air desorption and ionization processes, random fluctuations of ambient conditions can lead to large variances in mass-spectral signals over time. The mass-spectral data also can be further complicated due to multiple analytes present in the sample, background-ion signals stemming from the desorption/ionization source itself, and other laboratory-specific conditions (e.g., ambient laboratory air, nearby hardware). Thus, background removal and analyte-ion recognition can be quite difficult, particularly in non-targeted analyses. Here, we demonstrate the use of a cross-correlation-based approach to exploit chemical information encoded in the time domain to group/categorize mass-spectral peaks from a single analysis dataset. Ions that originate from ambient (or other) background species were readily flagged and removed from spectra; the result was a decrease in mass-spectral complexity by over 70% due to the removal of these background ions. Meanwhile, analyte ions were differentiated and categorized based on their time-domain profiles. With sufficient mass resolving-power and mass-spectral acquisition rate, isolated mass spectra containing ions from the same species in a sample could be extracted, leading to a reduction in mass-spectral complexity by more than 98% in some cases. The cross-correlation approach was tested with different ionization sources as well as reproducible and irreproducible sample introduction. Software built in-house enabled fully automated data processing, which can be performed within a few seconds. Ultimately, this approach provides an additional dimension of analyte separation in ambient mass-spectrometric analyses with information that is already recorded throughout the analysis. .

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Fast Image Texture Classification Using Decision Trees

Texture analysis would permit improved autonomous, onboard science data interpretation for adaptive navigation, sampling, and downlink decisions. These analyses would assist with terrain analysis and instrument placement in both macroscopic and microscopic image data products. Unfortunately, most state-of-the-art texture analysis demands computationally expensive convolutions of filters involving many floating-point operations. This makes them infeasible for radiation- hardened computers and spaceflight hardware. A new method approximates traditional texture classification of each image pixel with a fast decision-tree classifier. The classifier uses image features derived from simple filtering operations involving integer arithmetic. The texture analysis method is therefore amenable to implementation on FPGA (field-programmable gate array) hardware. Image features based on the "integral image" transform produce descriptive and efficient texture descriptors. Training the decision tree on a set of training data yields a classification scheme that produces reasonable approximations of optimal "texton" analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. A decision-tree learning algorithm employing the traditional k-means criterion of inter-cluster variance is used to learn tree structure from training data. The result is an efficient and accurate summary of surface morphology in images. This work is an evolutionary advance that unites several previous algorithms (k-means clustering, integral images, decision trees) and applies them to a new problem domain (morphology analysis for autonomous science during remote exploration). Advantages include order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime, feasibility for FPGA hardware, and significant improvements in texture classification accuracy.

Thompson, David R.↗