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DOE OSTI2019

Which practices co-deliver food security, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and combat land degradation and desertification?

There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as “land challenges”). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (>3 Gt CO 2 eq/year) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices, such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing-up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting soil carbon changes in switchgrass grown on marginal lands under climate change and adaptation strategies

Abstract The United States Great Lakes Region (USGLR) is a critical geographic area for future bioenergy production. Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is widely considered a carbon (C)‐neutral or C‐negative bioenergy production system, but projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change might substantially alter soil organic C (SOC) dynamics and storage in soils. This study examined long‐term SOC changes in switchgrass grown on marginal land in the USGLR under current and projected climate, predicted using a process‐based model (Systems Approach to Land‐Use Sustainability) extensively calibrated with a wealth of plant and soil measurements at nine experimental sites. Simulations indicate that these soils are likely a net C sink under switchgrass (average gain 0.87 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ), although substantial variation in the rate of SOC accumulation was predicted (range: 0.2–1.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ). Principal component analysis revealed that the predicted intersite variability in SOC sequestration was related in part to differences in climatic characteristics, and to a lesser extent, to heterogeneous soils. Although climate change impacts on switchgrass plant growth were predicted to be small (4%–6% decrease on average), the increased soil respiration was predicted to partially negate SOC accumulations down to 70% below historical rates in the most extreme scenarios. Increasing N fertilizer rate and decreasing harvest intensity both had modest SOC sequestration benefits under projected climate, whereas introducing genotypes better adapted to the longer growing seasons was a much more effective strategy. Best‐performing adaptation scenarios were able to offset >60% of the climate change impacts, leading to SOC sequestration 0.7 Mg C ha −1 year −1 under projected climate. On average, this was 0.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 more C sequestered than the no adaptation baseline. These findings provide crucial knowledge needed to guide policy and operational management for maximizing SOC sequestration of future bioenergy production on marginal lands in the USGLR.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Whole genome resequencing reveals genomic regions associated with thermal adaptation in redband trout

Abstract Adaptation to local environments involves evolution of ecologically important traits and underlying physiological processes. Here, we used low coverage whole‐genome resequencing (lcWGR) on individuals to identify genome regions involved in thermal adaptation in wild redband trout Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri , a subspecies of rainbow trout that inhabits ecosystems ranging from cold montane forests to high elevation deserts. This study includes allele frequency‐based analyses for selective sweeps among populations, followed by multiple association tests for specific sets of phenotypes measured under thermal stress (acute and chronic survival/mortality; high or low cardiac performance groups). Depending on the groups in each set of analyses, sequencing reads covered 43%–75% of the genome at ≥15× and each analysis included millions of SNPs across the genome. In tests for selective sweeps among populations, a total of six chromosomal regions were significant. The further association tests for specific phenotypes revealed that the region on chromosome 4 was consistently the most significant and contains the cerk gene (ceramide kinase). This study provides insight into a potential genetic mechanism of local thermal adaptation and suggests c erk may be an important candidate gene. However, further validation of this cerk gene is necessary to determine if the association with cardiac performance results in a functional role to influence thermal performance when exposed to high water temperatures and hypoxic conditions.

Chen, Zhongqi↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive management of large-scale ecosystem restoration: increasing certainty of habitat outcomes in the Columbia River Estuary, U.S.A.

Ecological restoration programs in dynamic coastal environments can benefit from adaptive management, including an iterative process for identifying and addressing critical uncertainties. We highlight key developments under the three pillars that have increased the rate of restoration by the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP) over 20 years: science, coordination, and management. We show how such programs can be institutionalized to ensure that estuary ecosystems are better understood, conserved, and restored. The principal conservation effort under CEERP is to reconnect historical floodplain wetlands to the mainstem. The program also supports other restoration actions that demonstrate a high potential to benefit ecosystem function and endangered salmon populations, however, there is greater uncertainty regarding these less-utilized techniques. Through adaptive management, we address both technical uncertainty regarding benefits to the environmental resource and programmatic uncertainty pertaining to decision-making. Here, we examine three periods of CEERP growth to establish how complementary research and restoration actions have improved program outcomes over time. We highlight the tools and processes that were developed and integrated into the program to refine program strategy, improve project design, and maximize ecological benefits. CEERP supported 77 restoration projects and reconnected over 7,000 acres of floodplain habitat to the lower Columbia River between 2004 and 2021. Building on these successes, we outline current plans to better engage landowners and local communities, solicit new project types, and maintain enough flexibility within the program to adapt to new priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

General-Surrogate Adaptive Sampling Using Interquartile Range for Design Space Exploration

Abstract A surrogate model is a common tool to approximate system response at untested points for design space exploration. Adaptive sampling has been studied for improving the accuracy of surrogates iteratively by introducing additional samples (simulations and experiments). New samples are often selected based on the estimated uncertainty in the design space. While some surrogates such as kriging have readily available uncertainty models for their predictions, other surrogates do not. Consequently, there have been studies of using the process of leaving-samples-out (LSO) used in cross-validation tools to estimate prediction uncertainty, such as the universal prediction distribution (UPD). In this paper, an adaptive sampling scheme for general surrogates is proposed based on LSO, similar to cross-validation and interquartile range (IQR). Multiple submodels are first developed from LSO. The uncertainty is then estimated from the IQR of these surrogates at a given point. New samples are added iteratively at the point with maximum IQR for design space exploration. The proposed scheme is illustrated using kriging, radial basis function, and neural network surrogates. The proposed scheme is evaluated using four algebraic test functions. Multiple sets of initial samples were produced to account for randomness. For these test functions, the proposed scheme was found to be more accurate and robust than kriging with its own uncertainty model. The proposed scheme was more accurate than the UPD for three out of the four test functions. For a fixed number of samples, the IQR-based adaptive sampling also proved to be more accurate than all-at-once sampling in most cases even when the estimated uncertainty was only mildly correlated with prediction errors.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adaptation to Environmental Extremes Structures Functional Traits in Biological Soil Crust and Hypolithic Microbial Communities

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread in drylands and deserts. At the microhabitat scale, they also host hypolithic communities that live under semitranslucent stones. Both environmental niches experience exposure to extreme conditions such as high UV radiation, desiccation, temperature fluctuations, and resource limitation. However, hypolithic communities are somewhat protected from extremes relative to biocrust communities. Conditions are otherwise similar, so comparing them can answer outstanding questions regarding adaptations to environmental extremes. Using metagenomic sequencing, we assessed the functional potential of dryland soil communities and identified the functional underpinnings of ecological niche differentiation in biocrusts versus hypoliths. We also determined the effect of the anchoring photoautotroph (moss or cyanobacteria). Genes and pathways differing in abundance between biocrusts and hypoliths indicate that biocrust communities adapt to the higher levels of UV radiation, desiccation, and temperature extremes through an increased ability to repair damaged DNA, sense and respond to environmental stimuli, and interact with other community members and the environment. Intracellular competition appears to be crucial to both communities, with biocrust communities using the Type VI Secretion System (T6SS) and hypoliths favoring a diversity of antibiotics. The dominant primary producer had a reduced effect on community functional potential compared with niche, but an abundance of genes related to monosaccharide, amino acid, and osmoprotectant uptake in moss-dominated communities indicates reliance on resources provided to heterotrophs by mosses. Our findings indicate that functional traits in dryland communities are driven by adaptations to extremes and we identify strategies that likely enable survival in dryland ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Order Mesh r-Adaptivity with Tangential Relaxation and Guaranteed Mesh Validity

High-order meshes are crucial for achieving optimal convergence rates in curvilinear domains, preserving symmetry, and aligning with key flow features in moving mesh simulations [1], but their quality is challenging to control. In prior work, we have developed techniques based on Target-Matrix Optimization Paradigm (TMOP) to adapt a given high-order mesh to the geometry and solution of the partial differential equation (PDE) [2, 3]. Here, we extend this framework to address two key gaps in the literature for highorder mesh 𝑟-adaptivity. First, we introduce tangential relaxation on curved surfaces using solely the discrete mesh representation, eliminating the need for access to underlying geometry (e.g., CAD model). Second, we ensure a continuously positive Jacobian determinant throughout the domain. This determinant positivity is essential for using the high-order mesh resulting from 𝑟-adaptivity with arbitrary quadrature schemes in simulations. The proposed approach is demonstrated to be robust using a variety of numerical experiments.

Mathematics and Computing↗

DOE OSTI2019

Scalable Matrix-Free Adaptive Product-Convolution Approximation for Locally Translation-Invariant Operators

We present an adaptive grid matrix-free operator approximation scheme based on a "product-convolution" interpolation of convolution operators. This scheme is appropriate for operators that are locally translation-invariant, even if these operators are high rank or full rank. Such operators arise in Schur complement methods for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), as Hessians in PDE-constrained optimization and inverse problems, as integral operators, as covariance operators, and as Dirichlet-to-Neumann maps. Constructing the approximation requires computing the impulse responses of the operator to point sources centered on nodes in an adaptively refined grid of sample points. A randomized a posteriori error estimator drives the adaptivity. Once constructed, the approximation can be efficiently applied to vectors using the fast Fourier transform. The approximation can be efficiently converted to hierarchical matrix (H-matrix) format, then inverted or factorized using scalable H-matrix arithmetic. The quality of the approximation degrades gracefully as fewer sample points are used, allowing cheap lower quality approximations to be used as preconditioners. Furthermore, this yields an automated method to construct preconditioners for locally translation-invariant Schur complements. We directly address issues related to boundaries and prove that our scheme eliminates boundary artifacts. We test the scheme on a spatially varying blurring kernel, on the nonlocal component of an interface Schur complement for the Poisson operator, and on the data misfit Hessian for an advection dominated advection-diffusion inverse problem. Numerical results show that the scheme outperforms existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

PAGANI: a parallel adaptive GPU algorithm for numerical integration

We present a new adaptive parallel algorithm for the challenging problem of multi-dimensional numerical integration on massively parallel architectures. Adaptive algorithms have demonstrated the best performance, but efficient many-core utilization is difficult to achieve because the adaptive work-load can vary greatly across the integration space and is impossible to predict a priori. Existing parallel algorithms utilize sequential computations on independent processors, which results in bottlenecks due to the need for data redistribution and processor synchronization. Our algorithm employs a high-throughput approach in which all existing sub-regions are processed and sub-divided in parallel. Repeated sub-region classification and filtering improves upon a brute-force approach and allows the algorithm to make efficient use of computation and memory resources. A CUDA implementation shows orders of magnitude speedup over the fastest open-source CPU method and extends the achievable accuracy for difficult integrands. Our algorithm typically outperforms other existing deterministic parallel methods.

Sakiotis, Ioannis↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Sampling Trust Region Method for Bi-fidelity Simulation Optimization [SWR-25-166]

Adaptive Sampling Trust Region Method for Bi-fidelity Simulation Optimization aims to demonstrate the effect of adaptive sampling-based bi-fidelity stochastic trust region method (ASTRO-BFDF). ASTRO-BFDF, derived from a derivative-free adaptive sampling trust-region optimization (ASTRO-DF) (Shashaani et al. 2018, Ha and Shashaani 2023), intended to efficiently solve the bi-fidelity simulation optimization.

Mueller, Juliane [National Laboratory of the Rocki↗

DOE OSTI2024

Long-term Multimodal Recording Reveals Epigenetic Adaptation Routes in Dormant Breast Cancer Cells

Patients with estrogen receptor–positive breast cancer receive adjuvant endocrine therapies (ET) that delay relapse by targeting clinically undetectable micrometastatic deposits. Yet, up to 50% of patients relapse even decades after surgery through unknown mechanisms likely involving dormancy. To investigate genetic and transcriptional changes underlying tumor awakening, we analyzed late relapse patients and longitudinally profiled a rare cohort treated with long-term neoadjuvant ETs until progression. Next, we developed an in vitro evolutionary study to record the adaptive strategies of individual lineages in unperturbed parallel experiments. Our data demonstrate that ETs induce nongenetic cell state transitions into dormancy in a stochastic subset of cells via epigenetic reprogramming. Single lineages with divergent phenotypes awaken unpredictably in the absence of recurrent genetic alterations. Targeting the dormant epigenome shows promising activity against adapting cancer cells. Overall, this study uncovers the contribution of epigenetic adaptation to the evolution of resistance to ETs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Scale-Adaptive Turbulent Kinetic Energy Closure for the Dry Convective Boundary Layer

Abstract A pragmatic scale-adaptive turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) closure is proposed to simulate the dry convective boundary layer for a variety of horizontal grid resolutions: from 50 m, typical of large-eddy simulation models that use three-dimensional turbulence parameterizations/closures, up to 100 km, typical of climate models that use one-dimensional turbulence and convection parameterizations/closures. Since parameterizations/closures using the TKE approach have been frequently used in these two asymptotic limits, a simple method is proposed to merge them with a mixing-length-scale formulation for intermediate resolutions. This new scale-adaptive mixing length naturally increases with increasing grid length until it saturates as the grid length reaches mesoscale-model resolution. The results obtained using this new approach for dry convective boundary layers are promising. The mean vertical profiles of potential temperature and heat flux remain in good agreement for different resolutions. A continuous transition (in terms of resolution) across the gray zone is illustrated through the partitioning between the model-resolved and the subgrid-scale transports as well as by documenting the transition of the subgrid-scale TKE source/sink terms. In summary, a natural and continuous transition across resolutions (from 50 m to 100 km) is obtained, for dry convection, using exactly the same atmospheric model for all resolutions with a simple scale-adaptive mixing-length formulation.

Kurowski, Marcin J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS): A Methodology to Collect Radar Observations of Convective Cell Life Cycle

Abstract Multisensor Agile Adaptive Sampling (MAAS), a smart sensing framework, was adapted to increase the likelihood of observing the vertical structure (with little to no gaps), spatial variability (at subkilometer scale), and temporal evolution (at ∼2-min resolution) of convective cells. This adaptation of MAAS guided two mechanically scanning C-band radars (CSAPR2 and CHIVO) by automatically analyzing the latest NEXRAD data to identify, characterize, track, and nowcast the location of all convective cells forming in the Houston domain. MAAS used either a list of predetermined rules or real-time user input to select a convective cell to be tracked and sampled by the C-band radars. The CSAPR2 tracking radar was first tasked to collect three sector plan position indicator (PPI) scans toward the selected cell. Edge computer processing of the PPI scans was used to identify additional targets within the selected cell. In less than 2 min, both the CSAPR2 and CHIVO radars were able to collect bundles of three to six range–height indicator (RHI) scans toward different targets of interest within the selected cell. Bundles were successively collected along the path of cell advection for as long as the cell met a predetermined set of criteria. Between 1 June and 30 September 2022 over 315 000 vertical cross-section observations were collected by the C-band radars through ∼1300 unique isolated convective cells, most of which were observed for over 15 min of their life cycle. To the best of our knowledge, this dataset, collected primarily through automatic means, constitutes the largest dataset of its kind.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Extreme scale unstructured adaptive CFD for aerodynamic flow control

Understanding the flow of fluid, either liquid or gas, through and around solid bodies has challenged man since the dawn of scientific inquiry. Many of the great minds of science and mathematics have progressively built up a hierarchy of fluid models since fluid flow impacts our lives in so many fundamental ways - from the early days of flow of water in viaducts to cities, to today's flight of planes. This chapter is concerned with the computational modeling of turbulent flow around aerodynamic bodies such as planes and wind turbines. In this case, viscous effects near the solid bodies create very thin boundary layers that yield highly anisotropic (gradients normal to the surface may be 10 6 larger than gradients along the surface) solutions to the governing non-linear partial differential equations (PDE); the Navier-Stokes equations. Furthermore, turbulent flows develop extremely broad ranges of length and time scales motivating the use of discretization methods capable of employing adaptivity and implicit time integration. The combination of these features - non-linear, anisotropy, adaptivity, and implicit - dramatically raise the complexity of the discretization, posing large challenges to efficient scalable parallel implementation. However, through careful design, the more complex algorithms can provide great reductions in computational cost relative to simpler methods (e.g., Cartesian grids with explicit time integration) that are easier to mate efficiently to hardware. In this chapter, we not only describe our approach but we also address the fact that while complex algorithms may never be as efficient flop-for-flop as simple methods, in the important measure of science-per-core-hour, they can still win big by making complex features like adaptivity and implicit methods as efficient and scalable as possible.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Random adaptive tool path for zonal optics fabrication

Deterministic optics fabrication using sub-aperture tools has been vital for manufacturing precision optical surfaces. The fabrication process requires the tool influence function and the tool path to calculate the dwell time that guides the tool to bring surface quality within tight design tolerances. Widely used spiral and raster paths may leave excess waviness from the tool path, and the unavoidable constant removal layer is added to obtain positive dwell time. This waviness can be removed by either using smaller tools sequentially or randomizing the tool path. However, the existing tool-path solutions can hardly adapt to different surface aperture shapes and localized surface errors. Process efficiency and accuracy are also not well considered in tool-path planning. We propose an innovative zonal Random Adaptive Path (RAP) to solve these problems in this study. Firstly, RAP can be flexibly adapted to different surface aperture shapes by introducing part boundary. Secondly, an average threshold strategy is used in the RAP planning to improve efficiency, enabling the surface errors to be selectively corrected. Finally, the threshold is performed in several passes within one processing cycle, each with its RAP, until the desired residual is achieved. The performance of the proposed RAP is studied by comparing it with the conventional tool paths. The results demonstrated that RAP takes the least processing time and achieves the best surface quality, which verifies the effectiveness of RAP in deterministic optics fabrication.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Spatial soft sweeps: Patterns of adaptation in populations with long-range dispersal

Adaptation in extended populations often occurs through multiple independent mutations responding in parallel to a common selection pressure. As the mutations spread concurrently through the population, they leave behind characteristic patterns of polymorphism near selected loci—so-called soft sweeps—which remain visible after adaptation is complete. These patterns are well-understood in two limits of the spreading dynamics of beneficial mutations: the panmictic case with complete absence of spatial structure, and spreading via short-ranged or diffusive dispersal events, which tessellates space into distinct compact regions each descended from a unique mutation. However, spreading behaviour in most natural populations is not exclusively panmictic or diffusive, but incorporates both short-range and long-range dispersal events. Here, we characterize the spatial patterns of soft sweeps driven by dispersal events whose jump distances are broadly distributed, using lattice-based simulations and scaling arguments. We find that mutant clones adopt a distinctive structure consisting of compact cores surrounded by fragmented “haloes” which mingle with haloes from other clones. As long-range dispersal becomes more prominent, the progression from diffusive to panmictic behaviour is marked by two transitions separating regimes with differing relative sizes of halo to core. We analyze the implications of the core-halo structure for the statistics of soft sweep detection in small genomic samples from the population, and find opposing effects of long-range dispersal on the expected diversity in global samples compared to local samples from geographic subregions of the range. We also discuss consequences of the standing genetic variation induced by the soft sweep on future adaptation and mixing.

Genetics & Heredity↗

DOE OSTI2017

Proposed Advanced Reactor Adaptation of the Standard Review Plan NUREG-0800 Chapter 4 (Reactor) for Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors and Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors

This report proposes adaptation of the previous regulatory gap analysis in Chapter 4 (Reactor) of NUREG 0800, Standard Review Plan (SRP) for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants: LWR [Light Water Reactor] Edition. The proposed adaptation would result in a Chapter 4 review plan applicable to certain advanced reactors. This report addresses two technologies: the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) and the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (mHTGR). SRP Chapter 4, which addresses reactor components, was selected for adaptation because of the possible significant differences in advanced non-light water reactor (non-LWR) technologies compared with the current LWR-based description in Chapter 4. SFR and mHTGR technologies were chosen for this gap analysis because of their diverse designs and the availability of significant historical design detail.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2017

SAChES: Scalable Adaptive Chain-Ensemble Sampling.

We present the development of a parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method called SAChES, Scalable Adaptive Chain-Ensemble Sampling. This capability is targed to Bayesian calibration of com- putationally expensive simulation models. SAChES involves a hybrid of two methods: Differential Evo- lution Monte Carlo followed by Adaptive Metropolis. Both methods involve parallel chains. Differential evolution allows one to explore high-dimensional parameter spaces using loosely coupled (i.e., largely asynchronous) chains. Loose coupling allows the use of large chain ensembles, with far more chains than the number of parameters to explore. This reduces per-chain sampling burden, enables high-dimensional inversions and the use of computationally expensive forward models. The large number of chains can also ameliorate the impact of silent-errors, which may affect only a few chains. The chain ensemble can also be sampled to provide an initial condition when an aberrant chain is re-spawned. Adaptive Metropolis takes the best points from the differential evolution and efficiently hones in on the poste- rior density. The multitude of chains in SAChES is leveraged to (1) enable efficient exploration of the parameter space; and (2) ensure robustness to silent errors which may be unavoidable in extreme-scale computational platforms of the future. This report outlines SAChES, describes four papers that are the result of the project, and discusses some additional results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗