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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

A Meta-Analysis of Single-Family Deep Energy Retrofit Performance in the U.S.

The current state of Deep Energy Retrofit (DER) performance in the U.S. has been assessed in 116 homes in the United States (US), using actual and simulated data gathered from the available domestic literature. Substantial airtightness reductions averaging 63% (n=48) were reported (two- to three-times more than in conventional retrofits), with average post-retrofit airtightness of 4.7 Air Changes per House at 50 Pascal (ACH 50 ) (n=94). Yet, mechanical ventilation was not installed consistently. In order to avoid indoor air quality (IAQ) issues, all future DERs should comply with ASHRAE 62.2-2013 requirements or equivalent. Projects generally achieved good energy results, with average annual net-site and net-source energy savings of 47%±20% and 45%±24% (n=57 and n=35), respectively, and carbon emission reductions of 47%±22% (n=23). Net-energy reductions did not vary reliably with house age, airtightness, or reported project costs, but pre-retrofit energy usage was correlated with total reductions (MMBtu). Annual energy costs were reduced $\$1,283$ ± $\$804$ (n=31), from a pre-retrofit average of $\$2,738$ ± $\$1,065$ to $\$1,588$ ± $\$561$ post-retrofit (n=25 and n=39). The average reported incremental project cost was $\$40,420$ ± $\$30,358$ (n=59). When financed on a 30-year term, the median change in net-homeownership cost was only $\$1.00$ per month, ranging from $\$149$ in savings to an increase of $\$212$ (mean= $\$15.67$ ± $\$87.74$; n=28), and almost half of the projects resulted in reductions in net-cost. The economic value of a DER may be much greater than is suggested by these net-costs, because DERs entail substantial non-energy benefits (NEBs), and retrofit measures may add value to a home at resale similarly to general remodeling, PV panel installation, and green/energy efficient home labels. These results provide estimates of the potential of DERs to address energy use in existing homes across climate zones that can be used in future estimates of the technical potential to reduce household energy use and greenhouse gas emissions through DERs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Lignite-plus-Biomass to Synthetic Jet Fuel with CO2 Capture and Storage: Design, Cost, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Analysis for a Near-Term First-of-a-Kind Demonstration Project and Prospective Future Commercial Plants

We report on a 30-month design study for a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) demonstration plant that would be built at a site near Meridian, Mississippi, to coprocess lignite coal and woody biomass into jet fuel. The design uses an oxygen-blown TRIG™ gasifier developed by KBR and Southern Company. Fischer-Tropsch conversion of the syngas produces synthetic paraffinic kerosene (SPK) as the primary product, plus naphtha. Other co-products include electricity sold to the grid and CO 2 sold for use in enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Previous studies have identified coprocessing of various coals and biomass with CO 2 capture as promising options for cost-competitive production of low net lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions synthetic fuels. The effort reported here goes beyond earlier studies in the level of detail in process design and cost estimation with the aim of improving the understanding of the economic prospects for lignite and woody biomass coprocessing systems. Key objectives in the design of the FOAK lignite/biomass-to-jet (LBJ) plant were to achieve net lifecycle GHG emissions for the SPK that are less than for conventional petroleum-derived jet fuel and to make process design and equipment selections such that the plant could be built and operated in the near term, e.g., before 2025. The process design was developed by researchers at Princeton University and the University of Queensland and validated by engineers at the WorleyParsons Group (WP). Commercial vendors provided design and cost estimates for several major plant components. Bare-erected capital costs and operating and maintenance costs were estimated by WP. The primary objective in building and operating the FOAK plant would be to demonstrate the technical viability of the LBJ concept as an essential first step toward launching commercial-scale plants in the longer term. With this in mind, the project team developed a set of principles to help guide the process design: the total plant cost should be less than 2 billion USD (to limit investment risk); the level of input biomass should be both proportionally significant to reflect biomass/lignite co-gasification and sufficient to achieve GHG emissions goals; process design decisions and vendor/equipment selections should prioritize the likelihood of technical success over minimizing the cost of jet fuel production. The resulting FOAK plant design capacity is 1,551 metric t/d (45.5% moisture) lignite and 556 t/d (43.3% moisture) biomass, for a total input of 295 MW HHV , of which 25% is biomass. The design output is 1,252 actual barrels per day of liquids, of which 80% is SPK (62.3 MW LHV ) and 20% is naphtha (13.9 MW LHV ). It exports 15 MW e of electricity after satisfying a 38 MW e onsite auxiliary load. Additional products are 1,326 t/d of pressurized pipeline-quality CO 2 and 49 t/day of sulfuric acid (93 wt% H 2 SO 4 ). With thinnings from sustainably-managed southern pine plantations as the biomass, and with captured CO 2 stored underground via EOR, the net lifecycle emissions for the SPK product are estimated to be about one-quarter of those for petroleum-derived jet fuel. The bare-erected cost (BEC) estimated by WP for this plant is 588 million USD (2015). The authors’ best estimate of total plant cost (TPC) is 1,230 million USD, arrived at by assuming engineering, procurement and construction management services (20% of BEC), process 5 contingencies (35% of BEC), and project contingencies (35% of the sum of all other costs, i.e., 35% of 1.55xBEC). Not surprisingly, an annual discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis determined that it would be impossible to generate a positive net present value (NPV) over a wide range in key input assumptions. An SPK production cost subsidy of nearly 400/bbl USD over a 20-year plant life would be required to achieve zero NPV under a baseline set of assumptions (including 3% real weighted average cost of capital and a levelized crude oil price of 80/bbl USD). Alternatively, a capital grant in excess of the TPC value would also achieve zero NPV. The poor financial results reflect the small scale of the plant, the design principle to prioritize technical success, the levels of contingencies appropriate for the relatively early stage of project development, and the first-of-a-kind nature of the plant. Technology innovations, learning via construction and operating experience, alternative plant configurations, and larger scale should improve economics of future plants. To help understand these prospects, a preliminary analysis of N th -of-a-kind (NOAK) plants was developed, but with the limitation that plants would use only equipment components that for the most part are already commercial today: consideration of advanced, not-yet-commercial technologies and of R&D-driven improvements in existing technologies were beyond the scope of this analysis. The analysis found that a variety of NOAK plant designs that coprocess lignite and woody biomass to make jet fuel are unlikely to be economically competitive without subsidy even in the presence of a high future carbon tax or equivalent greenhouse gas mitigation policy. This conclusion applies to process configurations and input biomass/lignite ratios that result in net GHG emissions as high as those for petroleum-derived jet fuel and as low as zero. In contrast, encouraging results were found for plants processing only biomass. The economics of these “BECCS” plants (biomass energy with CCS) improve dramatically with the strength of carbon mitigation policies because of their strongly negative net GHG emissions. These findings do not imply that coal/biomass coprocessing strategies for making synfuels with CCS are not economically promising – only that, in the case of lignite, much more than a 25% biomass coprocessing rate would be needed. However, our analysis shows that all such systems are unlikely to be economic in the absence of a strong carbon mitigation policy. Future R&D driven technological innovations could modify this conclusion. Among other R&D priorities, an emphasis on better understanding and reducing plant auxiliary loads is warranted.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Coal-Biomass Co-Firing Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage

The United States has set a target to achieve the net-zero economy by 2050. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS) is one of the promising negative-emission routes in the mitigation portfolio to help meet this goal. Coal-biomass co-firing with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key BECCS technology to realize the carbon mitigation at fossil-fuel power plants. The mitigation potential of co-firing option is affected by numerous critical factors, such as biomass properties, co-firing level, and carbon capture rate. The objectives of the study are to characterize and estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and performance of coal-biomass co-firing power plants with CCS, determine the breakeven co-firing level at power plants necessary to achieve net-zero life cycle emissions, and quantify the variabilities and uncertainties in life cycle emissions. The scope of the life cycle assessment includes the fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. A fuel-based life cycle module is developed and embedded in the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM), a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. This study then applies the enhanced IECM to conduct the process-based life cycle assessment for an array of biomass co-firing scenarios. Deterministic analysis indicates that reaching net-zero life cycle emissions in a biomass co-firing plant without CCS deployment is challenging. Combining biomass co-firing and CCS deployment can significantly lower the overall life cycle emissions of power plants. Net-zero life cycle emissions can be achieved with a 20 wt.% co-firing level and 90% CCS when the Powder River Basin coal is co-fired with energy crops or forestry residues. However, the breakeven co-firing level for net-zero emissions depend on the selected fuel properties. Fuel supply and plant operation are the critical stages influencing the life cycle emissions of power plants with 90% CCS. Deployment of deep CCS beyond 90% CO2 capture can remarkably reduce operational emissions and the breakeven co-firing level. With 99% CCS, the breakeven co-firing rate can be reduced to 12% on average. These findings highlight the trade-offs between technical performance and environmental impact of biomass co-firing at coal-fired power plants and emphasize the role of deep CCS in achieving a net-zero emissions future.

Wu, Wanying↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal decline in leaf photosynthesis in perennial switchgrass explained by sink limitations and water deficit

Leaf photosynthesis of perennial grasses usually decreases markedly from early to late summer, even when the canopy remains green and environmental conditions are favorable for photosynthesis. Understanding the physiological basis of this photosynthetic decline reveals the potential for yield improvement. We tested the association of seasonal photosynthetic decline in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) with water availability by comparing plants experiencing ambient rainfall with plants in a rainfall exclusion experiment in Michigan, USA. For switchgrass exposed to ambient rainfall, daily net CO 2 assimilation ( A' net ) declined from 0.9 mol CO 2 m -2 day -1 in early summer to 0.43 mol CO 2 m -2 day -1 in late summer (53% reduction; P<0.0001). Under rainfall exclusion shelters, soil water content was 73% lower and A' net was 12% and 26% lower in July and September, respectively, compared to those of the rainfed plants. Despite these differences, the seasonal photosynthetic decline was similar in the season-long rainfall exclusion compared to the rainfed plants; A' net in switchgrass under the shelters declined from 0.85 mol CO 2 m -2 day -1 in early summer to 0.39 mol CO 2 m -2 day -1 (54% reduction; P<0.0001) in late summer. These results suggest that while water deficit limited A' net late in the season, abundant late-season rainfalls were not enough to restore A' net in the rainfed plants to early-summer values suggesting water deficit was not the sole driver of the decline. Alongside change in photosynthesis, starch in the rhizomes increased 4-fold (P<0.0001) and stabilized when leaf photosynthesis reached constant low values. Additionally, water limitation under shelters had no negative effects on the timing of rhizome starch accumulation, and rhizome starch content increased ~6-fold. These results showed that rhizomes also affect leaf photosynthesis during the growing season. Towards the end of the growing season, when vegetative growth is completed and rhizome reserves are filled, diminishing rhizome sink activity likely explained the observed photosynthetic declines in plants under both ambient and reduced water availability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Patterns of longer-term climate change effects on CO 2 efflux from biocrusted soils differ from those observed in the short term

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are predicted to be sensitive to the increased temperature and altered precipitation associated with climate change. We assessed the effects of these factors on soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) balance in biocrusted soils using a sequence of manipulations over a 9-year period. We warmed biocrusted soils by 2 and, later, by 4 °C to better capture updated forecasts of future temperature at a site on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We also watered soils to alter monsoon-season precipitation amount and frequency and had plots that received both warming and altered precipitation treatments. Within treatment plots, we used 20 automated flux chambers to monitor net soil exchange (NSE) of CO 2 hourly, first in 2006–2007 and then again in 2013–2014, for a total of 39 months. Net CO 2 efflux from biocrusted soils in the warming treatment increased a year after the experiment began (2006–2007). However, after 9 years and even greater warming (4 °C), results were more mixed, with a reversal of the increase in 2013 (i.e., controls showed higher net CO 2 efflux than treatment plots) and with similarly high rates in all treatments during 2014, a wet year. Over the longer term, we saw evidence of reduced photosynthetic capacity of the biocrusts in response to both the temperature and altered precipitation treatments. Patterns in biocrusted soil CO 2 exchange under experimentally altered climate suggest that (1) warming stimulation of CO 2 efflux was diminished later in the experiment, even in the face of greater warming; and (2) treatment effects on CO 2 flux patterns were likely driven by changes in biocrust species composition and by changes in root respiration due to vascular plant responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using atmospheric observations to quantify annual biogenic carbon dioxide fluxes on the Alaska North Slope

The continued warming of the Arctic could release vast stores of carbon into the atmosphere from high-latitude ecosystems, especially from thawing permafrost. Increasing uptake of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by vegetation during longer growing seasons may partially offset such release of carbon. However, evidence of significant net annual release of carbon from site-level observations and model simulations across tundra ecosystems has been inconclusive. To address this knowledge gap, we combined top-down observations of atmospheric CO 2 concentration enhancements from aircraft and a tall tower, which integrate ecosystem exchange over large regions, with bottom-up observed CO 2 fluxes from tundra environments and found that the Alaska North Slope is not a consistent net source nor net sink of CO 2 to the atmosphere (ranging from ₋6 to +6 Tg C yr -1 for 2012–2017). Our analysis suggests that significant biogenic CO 2 fluxes from unfrozen terrestrial soils, and likely inland waters, during the early cold season (September–December) are major factors in determining the net annual carbon balance of the North Slope, implying strong sensitivity to the rapidly warming freeze-up period. At the regional level, we find no evidence of the previously reported large late-cold-season (January–April) CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere during the study period. Despite the importance of the cold-season CO 2 emissions to the annual total, the interannual variability in the net CO 2 flux is driven by the variability in growing season fluxes. During the growing season, the regional net CO 2 flux is also highly sensitive to the distribution of tundra vegetation types throughout the North Slope. This study shows that quantification and characterization of year-round CO 2 fluxes from the heterogeneous terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Arctic using both site-level and atmospheric observations are important to accurately project the Earth system response to future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Quantification of terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in the conterminous United States combining a process-based biogeochemical model and MODIS and AmeriFlux data

Satellite remote sensing provides continuous temporal and spatial information of terrestrial ecosystems. Using these remote sensing data and eddy flux measurements and biogeochemical models, such as the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), should provide a more adequate quantification of carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Here we use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) and carbon flux data of AmeriFlux to conduct such a study. First we modify the gross primary production (GPP) modeling in TEM by incorporating EVI and LSWI to account for the effects of the changes of canopy photosynthetic capacity, phenology and water stress. Second, we parameterize and verify the new version of TEM with eddy flux data. We then apply the model to the conterminous United States over the period 2000–2005 at a 0.05° × 0.05° spatial resolution. We find that the new version of TEM made improvement over the previous version and generally captured the expected temporal and spatial patterns of regional carbon dynamics. We estimate that regional GPP is between 7.02 and 7.78 PgC yr -1 and net primary production (NPP) ranges from 3.81 to 4.38 Pg Cyr -1 and net ecosystem production (NEP) varies within 0.08– 0.73 PgC yr -1 over the period 2000–2005 for the conterminous United States. The uncertainty due to parameterization is 0.34, 0.65 and 0.18 PgC yr -1 for the regional estimates of GPP, NPP and NEP, respectively. The effects of extreme climate and disturbances such as severe drought in 2002 and destructive Hurricane Katrina in 2005 were captured by the model. Lastly, our study provides a new independent and more adequate measure of carbon fluxes for the conterminous United States, which will benefit studies of carbon-climate feedback and facilitate policy-making of carbon management and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

EFFICIENT SURROGATE FOR LOW ENERGY DAMAGE EFFECTS IN POLYATOMIC MATERIALS

We present an efficient surrogate for binary-collision Monte-Carlo (BCMC) calculations in polyatomic materials for low ion energies based on Parkin and Coulter’s net displacement function. Most of BCMC’s execution time is spent on the low energy tail of cascades when recoils’ residual travel distance is small compared to the desired resolution of the damage calculation. We propose to curtail an ions’ random walk if its energy reduces below a threshold Et and locally deposit an estimate of the expected number of defects it creates; the estimate of the number of defects is obtained from Parkin and Coulter’s net displacement functions. We find that results obtained with the BCMC code MyTRIM with and without truncation of the random walks compare well for large energy thresholds Et > 5 keV. For Et = 5 keV larger discrepancies are observed because of large differences between the net displacement function and MyTRIM for very low energy recoils. Future work will investigate and resolve this discrepancy. The energy threshold should be chosen so that ions’ average distance to next nuclear scattering is small compared to the desired resolution. A reduction of execution time of damage cascades by over 90 % is observed for an energy threshold of Et = 5 keV and a 1 MeV Xe-135 primary impinging on UO2. The desired application of this surrogate model are coupled FEM-BCMC calculations with varying compositions where net displacement functions are tabulated by composition. For reducing the number of required net displacement functions, derivatives of the net displacement function with respect to number fraction are computed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Kinetic Measurements in Heterogeneous Catalysis

This contribution is about the experimental determination of the rate of a heterogeneous catalytic reaction and the analysis of kinetic data. In this case, the reaction rate can be defined as the frequency at which the closed sequence of elementary steps transforming reactants into products is occurring. However, the rate of chemical reaction is not directly observed; rather, one records the rate of substance change. The rate of chemical reaction is calculated based on the rate of substance change and assumed stoichiometry of the reaction. In order to make this an intensive quantity (i.e., independent of the volume in which the reaction is performed, this frequency is divided by the latter or by a quantity proportional to the latter). As the focus of what follows is on heterogeneously catalyzed reactions this can be the catalyst mass, the catalyst surface area or the total number of active sites present in the reaction volume confined by the walls of a chemical reactor. For example, the rate may be reported as one of the following: Net rate of consumption/production of component i mol m-3 s-1 Net specific rate of consumption/production of component i mol kg-1 s-1 Rate of substance change (per unit volume of catalyst) mol m-3 s-1 Specific reaction rate (per unit mass of catalyst) mol kg-1 s-1 Net rate of consumption/production of component i mol m-2 s-1 The turnover frequency (TOF) is a characteristic originally introduced by Boudart [1] is expressed as TOF=R/G_tot , where R is the steady-state rate of reactant consumption or product generation and G_totis the total areal density of active sites [mol m-2]. The latter is typically taken from experimental chemisorption data obtained at low temperature. The advancement of a chemical reaction leads to changes in the amounts of reactants and products which, for a stoichiometric single reaction, are connected by the stoichiometric coefficients. In many cases, for the sake of simplicity, we will assume that the investigated reaction proceeds according to a single reaction pathway, so that the net production rate of a reaction component is directly proportional to the reaction rate and that the latter equals the net production rate of any of the involved components when divided by the appropriate stoichiometric coefficient. For complex stoichiometric reactions the net production rates of the involved components are linear combinations of the reaction rates. Different goals for kinetic measurements can be formulated: Catalyst testing, i.e., obtaining the kinetic dependences for the development and discrimination of efficient catalytic materials. Precise kinetic characterization of active materials via high-throughput screening is a part of such activity. Detailed kinetics, i.e., revealing the detailed mechanism of complex catalytic reaction via systematic kinetic studies, both steady-state and non-steady-state Industrial kinetics, i.e., obtaining data and relationships for describing and predicting the behaviour of catalytic reactors and processes at industrial scale Finally, mathematical modeling and analysis where kinetic measurements provide data for understanding complex kinetic phenomena, e.g., oscillations, non-linear self-organization, etc.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technology, technology, technology: An integrated assessment of deep decarbonization pathways for the Canadian oil sands

As a party to the Paris Agreement, Canada has an ambitious climate target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The country also holds the world's third largest oil reserves in the Alberta oil sands. Given increasing emissions from the oil sands sector, achieving Canada's net-zero target requires significant oil sands decarbonization. If, while phasing out fossil fuels, there is still a demand for Canadian oil sands, then the decarbonization of the resource production process becomes crucial. In this study, we use an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a detailed unconventional oil sector for Canada, including mining and in situ resources. We ask, what is the future of the oil sands sector in deeply decarbonized global and Canadian economies? We address this question under four mitigation scenarios with varying global net-zero GHG emissions constraints, three additional representative lower carbon extraction technologies available for the oil sands sector, as well as global direct air capture (DAC) deployment. We find that lower carbon technology deployment allows a 20%–44% increase in oil sands production by 2050 for scenarios with net-zero GHG emissions in 2100 or 2075. DAC helps maintain oil sands production in the most ambitious global decarbonization scenario (net-zero GHG by 2050), without which low international oil demand makes Canadian oil sands production uncompetitive. Canadian oil sands production thus depends highly on the availability of lower carbon extraction technologies and international oil demand, which to a certain extent relies on the availability and global deployment of negative emissions technologies.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2011

The Effects of Disturbance and Climate on Carbon Storage and the Exchanges of CO 2 Water Vapor and Energy Exchange of Evergreen Coniferous Forests in the Pacific Northwest: Integration of Eddy Flux, Plant and Soil Measurements at a Cluster of Supersites. Final report

This is the final technical report containing a summary of all findings with regard to the following objectives of the project: (1) To quantify and understand the effects of wildfire on carbon storage and the exchanges of energy, CO2, and water vapor in a chronosequence of ponderosa pine (disturbance gradient); (2) To investigate the effects of seasonal and interannual variation in climate on carbon storage and the exchanges of energy, CO2, and water vapor in mature conifer forests in two climate zones: mesic 40-yr old Douglas-fir and semi-arid 60-yr old ponderosa pine (climate gradient); (3) To reduce uncertainty in estimates of CO2 feedbacks to the atmosphere by providing an improved model formulation for existing biosphere-atmosphere models; and (4) To provide high quality data for AmeriFlux and the NACP on micrometeorology, meteorology, and biology of these systems. Objective (1): A study integrating satellite remote sensing, AmeriFlux data, and field surveys in a simulation modeling framework estimated that the pyrogenic carbon emissions, tree mortality, and net carbon exchange associated with four large wildfires that burned ~50,000 hectares in 2002-2003 were equivalent to 2.4% of Oregon statewide anthropogenic carbon emissions over the same two-year period. Most emissions were from the combustion of the forest floor and understory vegetation, and only about 1% of live tree mass was combusted on average. Objective (2): A study of multi-year flux records across a chronosequence of ponderosa pine forests yielded that the net carbon uptake is over three times greater at a mature pine forest compared with young pine. The larger leaf area and wetter and cooler soils of the mature forest mainly caused this effect. A study analyzing seven years of carbon and water dynamics showed that interannual and seasonal variability of net carbon exchange was primarily related to variability in growing season length, which was a linear function of plant-available soil moisture in spring and early summer. A multi-year drought (2001-2003) led to a significant reduction of net ecosystem exchange due to carry-over effects in soil moisture and carbohydrate reserves in plant-tissue. In the same forest, the interannual variability in the rate carbon is lost from the soil and forest floor is considerable and related to the variability in tree growth as much as it is to variability in soil climatic conditions. Objective (3): Flux data from the mature ponderosa pine site support a physical basis for filtering nighttime data with friction velocity above the canopy. An analysis of wind fields and heat transport in the subcanopy at the mesic 40-year old Douglas site yielded that the non-linear structure and behavior of spatial temperature gradients and the flow field require enhanced sensor networks to estimate advective fluxes in the subcanopy of forest to close the surface energy balance in forests. Reliable estimates for flux uncertainties are needed to improve model validation and data assimilation in process-based carbon models, inverse modeling studies and model-data synthesis, where the uncertainties may be as important as the fluxes themselves. An analysis of the time scale dependence of the random and flux sampling error yielded that the additional flux obtained by increasing the perturbation timescale beyond about 10 minutes is dominated by random sampling error, and therefore little confidence can be placed in its value. Artificial correlation between gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) is a consequence of flux partitioning of eddy covariance flux data when GEP is computed as the difference between NEE and computed daytime Re (e.g. using nighttime Re extrapolated into daytime using soil or air temperatures). Tower-data must be adequately spatially averaged before comparison to gridded model output as the time variability of both is inherently different. The eddy-covariance data collected at the mature ponderosa pine site and the mesic Douglas fir site were used to develop and evaluate a new method to extract the signal of ecosystem respiration directly from daytime net ecosystem exchange. This approach may help reducing uncertainty in carbon budgets by providing direct measurements of ecosystem respiration during daylight conditions by replacing modeled estimates. Objective (4): We submitted our flux and biological and ancillary data to the AmeriFlux web site and to Fluxnet. This includes atmospheric carbon, water, and heat fluxes, soil fluxes, NPP, carbon stocks, LAI, and disturbance history. Fluxnet is updating the original La Thuile files and will include the more recent years of data. They will be using a new approach to compute GPP, following discussions within the network about the need to improve GPP methodology

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Greenhouse gas balance over thaw-freeze cycles in discontinuous zone permafrost

Peat in the discontinuous permafrost zone contains a globally significant reservoir of carbon that has undergone multiple permafrost-thaw cycles since the end of the mid-Holocene (~3700 years before present). Periods of thaw increase C decomposition rates which leads to the release of CO 2 and CH 4 to the atmosphere creating potential climate feedback. In this paper, to determine the magnitude and direction of such feedback, we measured CO 2 and CH 4 emissions and modeled C accumulation rates and radiative fluxes from measurements of two radioactive tracers with differing lifetimes to describe the C balance of the peatland over multiple permafrost-thaw cycles since the initiation of permafrost at the site. At thaw features, the balance between increased primary production and higher CH 4 emission stimulated by warmer temperatures and wetter conditions favors C sequestration and enhanced peat accumulation. Flux measurements suggest that frozen plateaus may intermittently (order of years to decades) act as CO 2 sources depending on temperature and net ecosystem respiration rates, but modeling results suggest that—despite brief periods of net C loss to the atmosphere at the initiation of thaw—integrated over millennia, these sites have acted as net C sinks via peat accumulation. In greenhouse gas terms, the transition from frozen permafrost to thawed wetland is accompanied by increasing CO 2 uptake that is partially offset by increasing CH 4 emissions. Finally, in the short-term (decadal time scale) the net effect of this transition is likely enhanced warming via increased radiative C emissions, while in the long-term (centuries) net C deposition provides a negative feedback to climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: A Scientific Assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. Predominant sources are combustion related; namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption, influence on liquid, mixed-phase, and ice clouds, and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models, and should be increased by about about 60%. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of black carbon is +0.43 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.17, +0.68) W m-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources in the present day is estimated as +0.49 (+0.20, +0.76) W m-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings and their rapid responses and feedbacks. The best estimate of industrial-era (1750 to 2005) climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms is +0.77 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +-0.06 to +1.53 W m-2. Thus, there is a 96% probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. With a value of +0.77 W m-2, black carbon is likely the second most important individual climate-forcing agent in the industrial era, following carbon dioxide. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short- lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of co- emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil-fuel and biofuel) have a net climate forcing of +0.004 (-0.62 to +0.57) W m-2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all black- carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (-0.08 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of -1.23 to +0.81 W m-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

assessment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanical suppression of invasive Northern Pike in Box Canyon Reservoir, Washington

Abstract Objective Northern Pike Esox lucius recently invaded Box Canyon Reservoir, Washington, expanding to over 10,000 individuals by 2011. To limit further impacts, a significant reduction in population abundance was required. Project objectives were to reduce relative abundance (catch per unit effort [CPUE]) to less than 1.7 Northern Pike/net (87% reduction) in the core area and to less than 0.5 Northern Pike/net in the northern reservoir section within 3 years and then maintain those abundance targets thereafter. Methods Using gill nets, we conducted intensive annual (2012–2018) suppression each spring, focusing on spawning aggregations in shallow (<2-m), flooded habitats. To evaluate CPUE, a standardized spring pike index netting (SPIN) survey was conducted annually in May and compared to suppression netting CPUE. Result In total, 17,464 Northern Pike were removed in 4868 net sets, with 92.9% captured in the first 3 years, limiting future recruitment. Mean SPIN CPUE in the core area declined from a presuppression (2011) high of 13.2 Northern Pike/net to less than 1.0 Northern Pike/net by 2014. Effort was reduced by up to 80% as the project transitioned from the initial suppression phase (2012–2014) to a control phase (2015–2018), which explored the minimum effort required to maintain abundance targets. A significant rebound in CPUE occurred from 2017 to 2018, indicating that over 267 net sets annually may be required for long-term control. Although the mean CPUE (±95% confidence interval) increased slightly in 2018 (0.6 ± 0.5 Northern Pike/net), the target abundance in the core area was achieved annually from 2013 to 2018. Changes in suppression CPUE reflected those observed in SPIN surveys, further validating the survey and corroborating abundance trends. Conclusion Results demonstrate that the suppression of Northern Pike in large, complex waters is feasible but requires a substantial long-term commitment. We expect the suppression of this invasive species to become standard practice outside of its native range. The methodology and equipment described here could be applied directly or modified by others to suppress Northern Pike.

Bean, Nicholas J.↗
DOE OSTI2016

18F-FDOPA PET/CT-Guided Radiofrequency Ablation of Liver Metastases from Neuroendocrine Tumours: Technical Note on a Preliminary Experience

AimTo review our preliminary experience with 6-l-18F-fluorodihydroxyphenylalanine (18F-FDOPA) PET/CT-guided radiofrequency ablation (RFA) of liver metastases from neuroendocrine tumours (NETs).Materials and MethodsThree patients (mean age 51.3 years; range 43–56) with gastro-entero pancreatic NET (GEP-NET) liver metastases underwent 18F-FDOPA PET/CT-guided RFA. Patients were referred with oligometastatic hepatic-confined disease (1–6 metastases; <3 cm) on 18F-FDOPA PET/CT; poor lesion visualisation on US, CT, and MR; and ongoing symptoms. Procedures were performed in an interventional PET/CT scanner under general anaesthesia using a split-dose protocol. Lesion characteristics, procedural duration and technical success (accurate probe placement and post-procedural ablation-zone photopaenia), complications, patient and operator dose, and clinical outcomes were evaluated.ResultsThirteen liver metastases (mean size 11.4 mm, range 8–16) were treated in three patients (two presented with “carcinoid syndrome”). Technical success was 100 % with a mean procedural duration of 173.3 min (range 90–210) and no immediate complications. Mean patient dose was 2844 mGy·cm (range 2104–3686). Operator and radiographer doses were acceptable other than the operator’s right hand in the first case (149 µSv); this normalised in the second case. There was no local tumour or extra-hepatic disease progression at mid-term follow-up (mean 12.6 months; range 6–20); however, two cases progressed with new liver metastases at different sites. There was 100 % clinical success (n = 2) in resolving carcinoid syndrome symptoms.Conclusion18F-FDOPA PET/CT-guided RFA appears technically feasible, safe, and effective in patients with GEP-NETs and low-burden hepatic metastases. Further prospective studies are required to elucidate its precise role in tailored multimodality management of GEP-NET liver metastases.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating long-term emission impacts of large-scale electric vehicle deployment in the US using a human-Earth systems model

While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO 2 emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO 2 reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO 2 and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Project developer options to enhance the value of solar electricity as solar and storage penetrations increase

Increasing the penetration of photovoltaics (PV) reduces the marginal grid value of PV electricity. The declining grid value of PV with higher penetration could limit the technology's economic attractiveness and future demand. Various strategies have been proposed for preserving this value. Using a consistent framework, we analyze the net value (accounting for both cost and grid value) of more than ten strategies in the United States. Here, grid value is estimated from coincident wholesale power market prices and PV generation using observed historical prices or modeled future prices with up to 30% PV penetration. We find that established and emerging strategies designed to shift the timing of standalone PV generation at the expense of total generation—including orienting monofacial PV modules west or bifacial modules vertically—result in minor net-value benefits or penalties. Adding energy storage to such systems magnifies the net-value loss, because configurations that change the timing of PV production become redundant when the energy-shifting capabilities of storage are added. The largest net-value gains come from strategies that maximize generation (solar tracking plus oversized PV arrays) in conjunction with storage, especially at high PV penetrations. PV systems are long-lived assets. Our results suggest that efforts to promote generation-maximizing strategies today may yield increasing net-value benefits as PV and storage deployments continue to accelerate in the United States over the coming decades.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Augmented neutrophil extracellular traps formation promotes atherosclerosis development in socially defeated apoE −/− mice

Highlights: • Repeated social defeat exaggerates plaque size in apoE{sup −/−} mice. • Proportion of circulating neutrophils is significantly increased in defeated mice. • In vivo NETs formation is exaggerated within the atherosclerotic lesions in defeated mice. • DNase I treatment abrogates pro-atherogenic effect of RSD exposure. • In vitro NETs formation is exaggerated in BM PMN-MDSC from defeated mice. Depression is an independent risk factor of cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, the causal association remains undefined. We exposed mice to repeated social defeat (RSD) to precipitate depressive-like behaviors, and investigated the effects on atherosclerosis. Eight-week-old male apoE{sup −/−} mice were exposed to RSD by housing with a larger CD-1 mouse in a shared home cage. They were subjected to vigorous physical contact daily for 10 consecutive days and fed a high-cholesterol diet (HCD) for 6 weeks. The social interaction ratio and immobility time showed dramatic social avoidance before and after HCD feeding. Defeated mice showed higher increase in atherosclerotic lesion areas in the aortic root and entire aorta than control mice. Mean blood pressure and lipid profile were equivalent in both groups. While Ly-6G- and Mac3-positive areas in the aortic root were comparable between the groups, citrullinated histone H3 (Cit-H3)- and myeloperoxidase (MPO)-positive areas, markers of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs), were significantly increased in the defeated mice. Treatment with DNase I completely diminished the exaggerated atherosclerosis. The proportion of peripheral blood polymorphonuclear myeloid-derived suppressor cells (PMN-MDSC), but not of inflammatory monocytes, was markedly increased. Moreover, in vitro NETs formation from bone marrow (BM) PMN-MDSC was markedly augmented, accompanied by higher expression of Nox2 gene and reactive oxygen species. Our findings demonstrate that exposure to RSD promotes atherosclerosis by augmenting NETs formation within the plaque. This provides new insight into the underlying mechanism of depression-related CVD.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗