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DOE OSTI2023

Observationally driven Resource Assessment with CoupLEd models (ORACLE)

This project seeks to carry out a multifaceted analysis combining buoy observations, machine learning, turbulence, satellite data and high-resolution modeling. Our analyses will investigate air–sea interaction physics governing the variation of the winds with height and influence of clouds, uncertainty in coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere mesoscale models to capture certain key atmospheric phenomenon observed over the U.S. West Coast, impact of climate change, and the fidelity with which resource characterization models describe the range of observed offshore wind conditions. This project will focus its efforts on characterizing and assessing the atmospheric and oceanographic conditions along the U.S. West Coast.

Wind, Energy↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Circular Economy Life Cycle Assessment and Visualization Framework: A Multistate Case Study of Wind Blade Circularity in United States

A circular economy (CE) aims to decouple human activities from economic activities and resource use, and its overall goal is reducing or avoiding negative environmental externalities. The newly developed Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework simulates changes in supply chain environmental impacts as it transitions toward circularity. This study expands CELAVI by incorporating detailed spatial resolution and real-world road routes connecting all facilities within the system. The case study on end-of-life decision making of wind turbine blades in the states of Iowa and Missouri explores how supply chain circularity and environmental impacts are affected by pathway costs and level of wind turbine installations. It demonstrates how high circularity costs might be beneficial for circularity transitions given revenue generated from circular pathways. Finally, impacts have important contributions to the supply chain design and thus show the importance of including detailed spatial resolution in CELAVI and CE studies in general.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grid Strength Analysis for Integrating 30 GW of Offshore Wind Generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection

Offshore wind is a key player in the transition to a decarbonized electric gird, and the United States has set ambitious goals of integrating 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and 110 GW by 2050. To facilitate this integration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory are conducting the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study to assess transmission solutions. To achieve the 110-GW target by 2050, meticulous planning for network expansion and resource allocation is essential; however, meeting the 2030 goals requires integrating offshore wind power with minimal system upgrades, thus necessitating a careful study of grid strength and stability. The study team developed the Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (ASSET) to assess system strength under various operating conditions and contingencies, focusing on the proposed integration of 30 GW of offshore wind power by 2030. In this paper, we provide a summary of key features of the ASSET software and results of the grid strength analysis for integrating 30 GW of offshore wind generation by 2030 in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection.

Automated System-wide Strength Evaluation Tool (AS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Outcomes of the DOE Workshop on Atmospheric Challenges for the Wind Energy Industry

The U.S. Department of Energy-funded Mesoscale-to-Microscale Coupling (MMC) project team planned and conducted a virtual Workshop on Atmospheric Challenges for the Wind Energy Industry on October 19 and 20, 2020. The goal of the workshop was to forge a dialog with the community, including industry representatives, on how modeling tools are currently being used, the present active atmospheric modeling research in support of wind energy, and required advancements in capabilities and technology to continue to advance wind energy deployment. The workshop was planned in collaboration with an industry advisory panel that included representatives from wind power plant developers, turbine manufacturers, and companies that provide resource assessment and forecasting services. The format of the workshop included panels from government research sponsors, visionaries from industry, and mixed panels of researchers discussing research status and needs. A shared keynote presentation from the Technical University of Denmark experts anchored the second day of the workshop. An emphasis was placed on understanding the research needs in the offshore environment. In addition, breakout opportunities were provided each day. On the first day, the breakout discussions addressed predesigned questions configured to elicit participants’ thoughts on needed research directions. The second-day breakouts treated three important technical topics through a combination of presentations and group conversations. Each workshop participant chose their breakout preference from among downscaling details, modeling for turbines, and using artificial intelligence for atmospheric modeling. The discussions were robust and productive. The outcomes of the workshop include archiving a series of recommendations from industry and the research community on research directions required to further advance wind energy deployment. Discussions confirmed the need for high-fidelity modeling but that there are specific areas of applicability and other areas where the time and cost of computation is prohibitive. In those cases, the high-fidelity models can inform low-order models that are more practical for real-time or widely deployed applications. Industry must consider the financial cost of performing more expensive modeling approaches, but industry engineers and researchers are using these approaches where there appears to be a return on investment. An emerging type of low-order model is based on machine learning (ML). Participants confirmed that there are many atmospheric phenomena that need to be modeled better, including low-level jets, cold air outbreaks, land-sea induced circulations, diurnal variability, thin stable boundary layers, dynamic changes such as from frontal passage, interaction of wakes and blockage, and more. For the offshore environment, there is wide agreement that some level of ocean-wave-atmospheric coupling is necessary to capture variations in rotor-level winds needed to plan and operate offshore wind plants. Another recurring recommendation is that more observations are needed, particularly for the offshore environment. Those observations should consider the needs for model improvement, both for physically based models and for ML models. Observations must capture atmospheric profiles of variables that are important to understanding and modeling atmospheric and oceanic phenomena that impact boundary layer winds. Models must be validated with data and the uncertainty quantified, particularly those that are sensitive to initial and boundary conditions. Finally, a repeated request was to consider the holistic needs of hybrid plants of wind, solar, and storage resources because those types of plants are likely to be the wave of the future. In addition, industry wishes to understand impacts of the resource under a changing climate for long-term planning.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Makah Tribe Strategic Energy Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) connects remote and island communities, regional partners, and the DOE national laboratories to support communities as they seek to build resilience in their energy systems. The Makah Tribe faces several energy challenges, including frequent power outages and the potential for an extended outage due to an earthquake or tsunami. The Tribe joined ETIPP in 2022 to address those challenges, seeking to build energy resilience and sovereignty in the community. The Makah Tribe, Spark Northwest, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated to develop a strategic energy plan as part of the second cohort of ETIPP communities. The long-term energy vision of the Makah Tribe includes increasing energy efficiency in the community, improving energy management capacity, and developing the renewable energy generation and storage sufficient to independently power the Reservation for one year. Additionally, the ETIPP team worked with Makah leadership, staff, and community members to identify a set of community priorities, values, and goals to guide energy development as the Tribe takes the incremental steps toward their vision for energy sovereignty. Those energy values include ecosystem-based management, energy sovereignty and project ownership, workforce development and capacity, economic opportunity, community wellbeing and priorities, and emergency disaster resilience. To understand what would be needed for a year for energy independence, the PNNL team conducted an assessment to determine the current energy usage of the Tribe and also modeled several scenarios for future energy use. Using the energy usage values, the team estimated how two types of renewable energy technology, specifically locally deployed solar and small-scale wind, could contribute towards the energy independence goal. The energy baseline and resource assessment produced the following key findings:

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗

DOE OSTI2023

Phase 1: Duke Energy Zero Emission Resource Integration Study (ZERIS); Phase 2: Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study for Duke Energy (Final Report)

Phase 1: This statement of work makes up Phase 1 of a larger effort. During this Phase 1 effort, NREL will work with Duke Energy to analyze the impacts of integrating significant amounts of new solar power into the Duke Energy power system under a variety of different penetrations scenarios, with a maximum of ten (10) full scenarios examined. The existing fleet, particularly the nuclear generation, will be considered in the quantitative assessments and discussions. Duke Energy is looking to quantify how much solar generation its system can handle. NREL will work with Duke Energy to quantify solar potential, identify likely integration challenges and possible opportunities for wind, storage, demand side resources and other technologies. Phase 2: This Statement of Work consists of a follow-up effort (Phase 2) to a recently completed Phase 1 modeling effort. During Phase 2, NREL will work closely with Duke Energy to analyze the impacts of integrating significant amounts of variable generation resources (wind and solar) and storage into Duke Energy's system in the Carolinas. The existing fleet, particularly nuclear generation, will be considered in the quantitative assessment and discussions. This Statement of Work also includes an extension to Phase II of the Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study for Duke Energy. In this extension, NREL will work closely with Duke Energy to extend the production cost analysis developed in Phase II to 2018 weather and load data for Duke Energy's territory. This extension leverages the modeling tools and datasets developed as part of Phase II. The analysis will compare results from Phase II (using 2012 weather and load) with 2018 results to assess system operations with increased penetration of renewables and storage. Simplifying assumptions will be made for modeling Duke Energy's neighbors in the production cost model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Performance of a Circular Economy for Wind Energy Technologies: A Summary of Three Analytical Tools

A circular economy emphasizes the efficient use of all resources and presents opportunities for addressing series of economic and environmental objectives at local, regional, and national levels. Despite anticipated overall benefits to society, the transition to a circular economy is likely to create regional differences in impacts. As a result, it is important to evaluate the performance and tradeoffs associated with circular economy transitions. This poster summaries three previously published analytical tools that were used to assess the performance of developing a circular economy for wind energy technologies: the Renewable Energy Materials Properties Database (REMPD), a circular economy agent-based model for wind blades (CE Wind ABM), and the Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework. The REMPD is a comprehensive database of materials used in wind and solar plants, including material quantities and physical materials availability. The CE Wind ABM allows us to understand how wind stakeholders' end-of-life behaviors influence wind blade circularity and evaluate the impact of regional variables (e.g., logistics and transportation). And, the CELAVI framework is a modular framework that can be used to evaluate the impacts associated with circular economy transitions. These three analytical tools have been applied to evaluate circular economy transitions for wind energy technologies and they could be expanded to other technologies and products.

agent-based modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Uncertainty in Offshore Wind Energy Yield Estimates via a Metocean Reference Site

The offshore wind industry is burgeoning in the coastal waters of the United States, specifically along the Atlantic. For wind energy to be successful, reliable observations and model simulations are needed for resource assessment and forecasting. While many of these activities have already begun, there is currently an absence of observations at hub-height in these waters, with the closest available hub-height measurements usually taken onshore. Deployment of floating lidars has occurred through various federally funded projects, but only encapsulates time periods of a couple of years at best. Private industry is also beginning to leverage floating lidars, but this data is often proprietary, and not shared with the general public. In this work, we make the case for a metocean reference site for long-term offshore wind energy. Specifically, we quantify the impact of having a metocean reference site compared to other methods of determining hub-height winds and energy production. We use an offshore floating lidar to directly measure the wind resource, and compare these measurements to predictions derived from other widely-available surface meteorological variables. These prediction methods (vertical extrapolation, machine learning, and NWP output) produce a variety of vertical wind speed profiles, of which produce different energy yield estimates for a reference offshore turbine (Figure 1). While some methods perform reasonably well against the lidar, the uncertainty in these energy yield estimates has financial implications, further illustrating the need for long-term measurements in coastal waters.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validating Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (IBM) Tool (Final Report)

The project focused on validating the previously developed Greater Sage-Grouse Individual-based Model (GrSG IBM; LaGory et al. 2012, 2021). The objective was to transform this predictive, spatially and temporally explicit model into a portable resource to assist siting/resource managers in proactively assessing the cumulative impacts of wind energy development on the greater sage-grouse. Utilizing a bottom-up, individual-based approach, the GrSG IBM accounts for landscape context and species behavior, aiming to reduce uncertainty in estimating development impacts and support ecologically mindful land-based wind energy development. The validation effort covered approximately 6,540 km 2 near the Seven Mile Hill Wind Project in Wyoming. The GrSG IBM tool, built on the NetLogo platform (Tisue and Wilensky 2004), was executed over a 50-year period, with the analysis focusing on years following a 10-year initialization phase. Key results demonstrated the tool’s biological soundness across five key biological metrics: non-chick age class distribution (older than 10 weeks), adult sex ratio, life expectancy, population size, and overall population growth. For instance, the tool estimated that 58.6% of the non-chick population was reproductively immature, while the reference ranges from 51.4% to 57.8% (Patterson 1952, Rogers 1964). Experts confirmed the tool’s estimate was within a reasonable range for the species. The tool estimated average life expectancy of 1.43 years, while the reference ranges from 0.9 years to 1.1 years (Ammann 1957, Hamerstrom 1949). Experts also supported the model’s life-expectancy estimate as ecologically sound for the species in the study area. In terms of population change, the model estimated an annual shift between a 0.6% decline and a 1.0% increase over 50 years. While the reference suggests 2.9% annual decline in range-wide populations (Cortes et al. 2023), that includes many at-risk populations in South Dakota and Washington, for example. Our study area—in the northeastern part of Carbon County and western-edge of Albany County, Wyoming—is one of the remaining greater sage-grouse habitats supporting some of the most stable populations. Experts confirmed that the range of the annual population change spanning from a 0.6% decline to a 1.0% increase estimated by the tool was reasonable for our study area for this reason and confirmed that aligned with population estimates from existing studies on the greater sage-grouse and wind energy development in the study area (LeBeau et al. 2017a, Smith et al. 2024). Furthermore, the project showed that temporally explicit biological metrics generated by the GrSG IBM tool can complement the USGS’ Prioritizing Restoration of Sagebrush Ecosystems Tool (PReSET; Duchardt et al. 2021) by incorporating habitat restoration strategies into seasonal habitat suitability models to visualize population responses over time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydro-battery Hybrids – A Case for Holistic Assessment of Hybrid Energy Systems

With increasing penetration of renewable energy resources like solar and wind, the flexibility offered by the hydropower generation facilities would be instrumental in providing grid reliability. However, hydropower’s capabilities are often constrained to meet asset management targets and environmental flow requirements. To meet these necessary requisites while simultaneously being able to utilize hydropower’s full potential, hydro plus battery hybrids offer a logical solution. However it is often challenging to make the case for economic feasibility of hydro-battery hybrids at the required scale of battery storage. To that end, this paper proposes a multi-objective optimization framework to maximize advantages of hydro-battery hybrid systems from three different avenues: new market opportunities, environmental benefits and machine wear and fatigue. Using an illustrative case study of a peaking plant, we simulate hydropower operations for with and without 120 MWh of battery storage for four different simulated flow patterns ranging from peaking operations to run-of-the-river operations and two intermediate flow patterns in between. The results demonstrate that hybridizing the hydropower plant can potentially generate additional revenue while simultaneously enable more environmental friendly operations and reduce the overall machine wear and tear.

Chalishazar, Vishvas H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Operation and Impact Assessment of Distributed Wind for Improving Efficiency and Resilience of Rural Electricity Systems

This project aims to empower rural utilities by developing advanced optimization models and algorithms for effectively integrating distributed wind energy alongside battery storage and other distributed energy resources (DERs). The primary objectives are to reduce peak demand, ensure reliable emergency power supply, and regulate voltage and frequency. To address operational challenges, the project introduces innovative mitigation strategies and ultrafast assessment frameworks to evaluate the impacts of distributed wind and DERs on rural grids, offering actionable solutions to potential issues. Economic viability is assessed through cost-benefit analysis using real rural utility data, ensuring the practical application of the project outcomes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A hybrid data-driven and model-based approach for computationally efficient stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch under wind and solar uncertainty

Stochastic unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch (ED) are imperative in dealing with uncertainty in renewable forecast for power system operation and planning such that the overall expected production cost is minimized over the planning horizon. However, accurate calculation of the expected production cost requires assessment of a very large number of different scenarios of uncertain renewable resources, such as solar and wind, which is practically infeasible to simulate in real time. This article proposes a hybrid datadriven and physics-based model-predictive paradigm to efficiently solve for stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch considering uncertainty in wind and solar power forecasts. Here, the novelty of the approach lies in decoupling the production cost estimation from the unit commitment and economic dispatch optimization problems under uncertainty without compromising on the fidelity of the solutions. A data-driven machine learning model is first developed to predict the mean optimal production cost. A physics-based inverse problem is then solved to get the stochastic UC and ED profiles from the expected cost. The presented approach considers, for the first time, solar uncertainty in UC/ED determination and enables efficient and accurate propagation of wind and solar uncertainty to estimate the statistics of the production cost. The effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated systematically on a stylized RTS-GMLC single-node system. The overall framework predicts the expected cost 62.5% more accurately than the existing state-of-the-art, on unforeseen days during the entire year, and yields, for the first time, the associated physically consistent UC and ED profiles. The solutions are also shown to be flexible in providing adequate daily reserves to address any statistical deviations from probabilistic power forecasts. The computational time associated with the presented method is only about 10 s compared to over 24 h needed for a conventional stochastic UC/ED determination under uncertainty on an Intel Core i9 processor with 32 GB of RAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Unified Modeling Architecture for Load Management in Extreme Heat: The New York City Case

Integration of renewable resources to meet growing energy demand is becoming a global priority under decarbonization mandates. This study contributes to ongoing efforts on this key subject by assessing the feasibility of using coastal-urban renewable energy resources, namely, offshore wind and rooftop photovoltaic systems, to meet electricity demand of New York City during the intense recent heat wave period of June 2025. A unified modeling framework, based on the urbanized weather research and forecasting model, is used to simulate climate, renewable resources, and energy demand variables. Findings show significant energy load mismatch of approximately 1150 GWh over the month, between the demand and the combined renewable generation outcome. Three storage integration scenarios are analyzed to mitigate the deficits, reducing said deficits by a minimum of approximately 9% over the duration of the month. This study provides a transferable modeling framework tool for evaluating renewable integration in dense urban environments that can be used by grid operators to support grid resilience during extreme heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project: City and Borough of Sitka, Alaska - Modeling and Controls Assistance and Renewable Energy Resource Assessment [Slides]

This presentation provides a summary of the ETIPP project objectives and findings for Sitka, Alaska, including sizing of wind penetration, dynamic models, and analysis of efficiency of load control, stability and grid control impacts of wind capacity expansions and locations, and wind-hydro control coordination.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wave energy resources assessment for the multi-modal sea state of Hawaii

This paper describes development and validation of a 32-year wave hindcast for Hawaii as part of the wave energy resources assessment for the Exclusive Economic Zones of the US and affiliated territories. The nested model system comprises structured WAVEWATCH III models for the entire globe and the Central North Pacific as well as an unstructured SWAN model around the Hawaiian Islands with wind forcing from the Global Forecast System Reanalysis and its regional downscaling. The development effort follows the standards introduced by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). The hindcast dataset was firstly validated with buoy measurements in terms of the six IEC wave energy resources parameters including the omnidirectional wave power ????, significant wave height ????????0, energy period ????????, spectral width ????0, direction of maximum directionally resolved wave power ?????????? ????????, and directionality coefficient ????. The comparison shows good overall agreement but with greater uncertainties for the spectral parameters ????0, ???????????????????? , and ???? formulated for narrow band spectra. The multimodal sea state in Hawaii always includes a mix of short-period wind seas, long-period swells from the North and South Pacific as well as waves with moderate periods from multiple sources. We partition the hindcast spectra based on the respective period ranges and directions and validate the partitioned spectral energy and parameters with measured values for implementation in wave energy resources assessment. The partitioned wave parameters from the hindcast allow separate seasonal descriptions of wind seas, north and south swells, and moderate-period waves for in-depth understanding of the wave climate and resources in Hawaii.

Li, Ning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗