Engineering PapersSearch

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “wind forecasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Efficient Probabilistic Visualization of Local Divergence of 2D Vector Fields with Independent Gaussian Uncertainty

This work focuses on visualizing uncertainty of local divergence of two-dimensional vector fields. Divergence is one of the fundamental attributes of fluid flows, as it can help domain scientists analyze potential positions of sources (positive divergence) and sinks (negative divergence) in the flow. However, uncertainty inherent in vector field data can lead to erroneous divergence computations, adversely impacting downstream analysis. While Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a classical approach for estimating divergence uncertainty, it suffers from slow convergence and poor scalability with increasing data size and sample counts. Thus, we present a two-fold contribution that tackles the challenges of slow convergence and limited scalability of the MC approach. (1) We derive a closed-form approach for highly efficient and accurate uncertainty visualization of local divergence, assuming independently Gaussian-distributed vector uncertainties. (2) We further integrate our approach into Viskores, a platform-portable parallel library, to accelerate uncertainty visualization. In our results, we demonstrate significantly enhanced efficiency and accuracy of our serial analytical (speed-up up to 1946×) and parallel Viskores (speed-up up to 19698×) algorithms over the classical serial MC approach. We also demonstrate qualitative improvements of our probabilistic divergence visualizations over traditional mean-field visualization, which disregards uncertainty. We validate the accuracy and efficiency of our methods on wind forecast and ocean simulation datasets.

Ouermi, Timbwaoga [University of Utah]

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy

Resource adequacy concerns may be very different in electricity systems that have higher levels of solar and storage, requiring changes to existing planning models. This study explores a novel approach to evaluating resource adequacy under future scenarios with higher solar and storage in the Southeast U.S. It uses NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS), a collection of probabilistic resource adequacy modeling tools, and compares results when interacting PRAS and a portfolio planning tool with a more traditional modeling approach. The results suggest that traditional models perform reasonably well with lower levels of solar PV, but at higher levels of solar probabilistic tools better capture the changes in resource adequacy concerns—such as winter energy availability—associated with higher solar systems. This is the final study in the Preparing Southeast Markets for Reliable and Affordable Integration of Solar into Operations and Planning project. Two prior reports can be found at: Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/solar-and-storage-integration Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region. https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/multiutility_fe_reserve_sharing_final.pdf

14 SOLAR ENERGY

The useful potential of using existing data to uniquely identify predictable wind events and regimes, part 2

Wind data from four sites were stratified and found to naturally fit into a few unique groups. These were compared with synoptic weather patterns using the Booz-Allen classification system. Strong relationships became evident between a particular synoptic type and wind events for each site. Statistics indicate certain patterns which result in strong winds and some that result in weak winds. For each site there is a preferred wind direction associated with the strongest speed. Important relationships were also found comparing 850-mb and surface wind. Additionally, comparisons between pressure gradient and wind speed for a given gradient direction show some significant relationships. It can be stated that the overall results show what by using existing data for any site, the winds can be characterized and correlated with synoptic weather patterns. As a result, reliable wind forecasts can be made for utility companies for the purpose of power generation.

Notis, C.

General-aviation's view of progress in the aviation weather system

For all its activity statistics, general-aviation is the most vulnerable to hazardous weather. Of concern to the general aviation industry are: (1) the slow pace of getting units of the Automated Weather Observation System (AWOS) to the field; (2) the efforts of the National Weather Service to withdraw from both the observation and dissemination roles of the aviation weather system; (3) the need for more observation points to improve the accuracy of terminal and area forecasts; (4) the need for improvements in all area forecasts, terminal forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts; (5) slow progress in cockpit weather displays; (6) the erosion of transcribed weather broadcasts (TWEB) and other deficiencies in weather information dissemination; (7) the need to push to make the Direct User Access Terminal (DUAT) a reality; and (7) the need to improve severe weather (thunderstorm) warning systems.

Lundgren, Douglas J.

Three-dimensional model interpretation of NO(x) measurements from the lower stratosphere

A three-dimensional off-line chemistry transport model, driven by European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts winds and temperatures, is used to interpret measurements of NO and NO2 taken from the DC-8 during the second Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition. The model was run in three configurations: gas phase chemistry alone, inclusion of the N2O5 aerosol reaction, and inclusion of both N2O5 and ClONO2 aerosol reactions. The run including the N2O5 aerosol reaction alone usually agreed best with measured NO(x)/NO(y) ratios in midlatitude air masses. The NO(x)/NO(y) ratios of the run with both aerosol reactions were always too low, while the gas phase ratios were usually too high, especially during March. All three simulations generated extremely low NO2/NO(y) ratios in air parcels that had spent several days or more in the polar night. Measured NO2/NO(y) ratios in these types of air masses were sometimes equally low but could also be considerably higher. Observed NO/NO2 ratios differed strongly from known theory.

Folkins, Ian

AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

Spirkovska, Lilly

Cloud Motion Vectors from MISR using Sub-pixel Enhancements

The operational retrieval of height-resolved cloud motion vectors by the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer on the Terra satellite has been significantly improved by using sub-pixel approaches to co-registration and disparity assessment, and by imposing stronger quality control based on the agreement between independent forward and aft triplet retrievals. Analysis of the fore-aft differences indicates that CMVs pass the basic operational quality control 67% of the time, with rms differences - in speed of 2.4 m/s, in direction of 17 deg, and in height assignment of 290 m. The use of enhanced quality control thresholds reduces these rms values to 1.5 m/s, 17 deg and 165 m, respectively, at the cost of reduced coverage to 45%. Use of the enhanced thresholds also eliminates a tendency for the rms differences to increase with height. Comparison of CMVs from an earlier operational version that had slightly weaker quality control, with 6-hour forecast winds from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office yielded very low bias values and an rms vector difference that ranged from 5 m/s for low clouds to 10 m/s for high clouds.

Davies, Roger

Anvil Forecast Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, Phase II

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Light Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input.

Barrett, Joe H., III

Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD) Prototype System - Software Design Document

This document describes the software design of a prototype Wake Turbulence Mitigation for Departures (WTMD) system that was evaluated in shadow mode operation at the Saint Louis (KSTL) and Houston (KIAH) airports. This document describes the software that provides the system framework, communications, user displays, and hosts the Wind Forecasting Algorithm (WFA) software developed by the M.I.T. Lincoln Laboratory (MIT-LL). The WFA algorithms and software are described in a separate document produced by MIT-LL.

Sturdy, James L.

Performance of Airborne Precision Spacing Under Realistic Wind Conditions and Limited Surveillance Range

With the expected worldwide increase of air traffic during the coming decade, both the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA's) Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), as well as Eurocontrol's Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) program have, as part of their plans, air traffic management (ATM) solutions that can increase performance without requiring time-consuming and expensive infrastructure changes. One such solution involves the ability of both controllers and flight crews to deliver aircraft to the runway with greater accuracy than they can today. Previous research has shown that time-based spacing techniques, wherein the controller assigns a time spacing to each pair of arriving aircraft, can achieve this goal by providing greater runway delivery accuracy and producing a concomitant increase in system-wide performance. The research described herein focuses on one specific application of time-based spacing, called Airborne Precision Spacing (APS), which has evolved over the past ten years. This research furthers APS understanding by studying its performance with realistic wind conditions obtained from atmospheric sounding data and with realistic wind forecasts obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) short-range weather forecast. In addition, this study investigates APS performance with limited surveillance range, as provided by the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) system, and with an algorithm designed to improve APS performance when ADS-B surveillance data is unavailable. The results presented herein quantify the runway threshold delivery accuracy of APS under these conditions, and also quantify resulting workload metrics such as the number of speed changes required to maintain spacing.

Wieland, Frederick

Evaluation of an Airborne Spacing Concept, On-Board Spacing Tool, and Pilot Interface

The number of commercial aircraft operations is predicted to increase in the next ten years, creating a need for improved operational efficiency. Two areas believed to offer significant increases in efficiency are optimized profile descents and dependent parallel runway operations. It is envisioned that during both of these types of operations, flight crews will precisely space their aircraft behind preceding aircraft at air traffic control assigned intervals to increase runway throughput and maximize the use of existing infrastructure. This paper describes a human-in-the-loop experiment designed to study the performance of an onboard spacing algorithm and pilots ratings of the usability and acceptability of an airborne spacing concept that supports dependent parallel arrivals. Pilot participants flew arrivals into the Dallas Fort-Worth terminal environment using one of three different simulators located at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Langley Research Center. Scenarios were flown using Interval Management with Spacing (IM-S) and Required Time of Arrival (RTA) control methods during conditions of no error, error in the forecast wind, and offset (disturbance) to the arrival flow. Results indicate that pilots delivered their aircraft to the runway threshold within +/- 3.5 seconds of their assigned arrival time and reported that both the IM-S and RTA procedures were associated with low workload levels. In general, pilots found the IM-S concept, procedures, speeds, and interface acceptable; with 92% of pilots rating the procedures as complete and logical, 218 out of 240 responses agreeing that the IM-S speeds were acceptable, and 63% of pilots reporting that the displays were easy to understand and displayed in appropriate locations. The 22 (out of 240) responses, indicating that the commanded speeds were not acceptable and appropriate occurred during scenarios containing wind error and offset error. Concerns cited included the occurrence of multiple speed changes within a short time period, speed changes required within twenty miles of the runway, and an increase in airspeed followed shortly by a decrease in airspeed. Within this paper, appropriate design recommendations are provided, and the need for continued, iterative human-centered design is discussed.

Swieringa, Kurt

Performance of Airborne Precision Spacing Under Realistic Wind Conditions

With the expected worldwide increase of air traffic during the coming decade, both the Federal Aviation Administration s (FAA s) Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), as well as Eurocontrol s Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) program have, as part of their plans, air traffic management solutions that can increase performance without requiring time-consuming and expensive infrastructure changes. One such solution involves the ability of both controllers and flight crews to deliver aircraft to the runway with greater accuracy than is possible today. Previous research has shown that time-based spacing techniques, wherein the controller assigns a time spacing to each pair of arriving aircraft, is one way to achieve this goal by providing greater runway delivery accuracy that produces a concomitant increase in system-wide performance. The research described herein focuses on a specific application of time-based spacing, called Airborne Precision Spacing (APS), which has evolved over the past ten years. This research furthers APS understanding by studying its performance with realistic wind conditions obtained from atmospheric sounding data and with realistic wind forecasts obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) short-range weather forecast. In addition, this study investigates APS performance with limited surveillance range, as provided by the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) system, and with an algorithm designed to improve APS performance when an ADS-B signal is unavailable. The results presented herein quantify the runway threshold delivery accuracy of APS un-der these conditions, and also quantify resulting workload metrics such as the number of speed changes required to maintain spacing.

Wieland, Frederick

Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPIDR) Experiment and Results

An area in aviation operations that may offer an increase in efficiency is the use of continuous descent arrivals (CDA), especially during dependent parallel runway operations. However, variations in aircraft descent angle and speed can cause inaccuracies in estimated time of arrival calculations, requiring an increase in the size of the buffer between aircraft. This in turn reduces airport throughput and limits the use of CDAs during high-density operations, particularly to dependent parallel runways. The Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPiDR) concept uses a trajectory-based spacing tool onboard the aircraft to achieve by the runway an air traffic control assigned spacing interval behind the previous aircraft. This paper describes the first ever experiment and results of this concept at NASA Langley. Pilots flew CDAs to the Dallas Fort-Worth airport using airspeed calculations from the spacing tool to achieve either a Required Time of Arrival (RTA) or Interval Management (IM) spacing interval at the runway threshold. Results indicate flight crews were able to land aircraft on the runway with a mean of 2 seconds and less than 4 seconds standard deviation of the air traffic control assigned time, even in the presence of forecast wind error and large time delay. Statistically significant differences in delivery precision and number of speed changes as a function of stream position were observed, however, there was no trend to the difference and the error did not increase during the operation. Two areas the flight crew indicated as not acceptable included the additional number of speed changes required during the wind shear event, and issuing an IM clearance via data link while at low altitude. A number of refinements and future spacing algorithm capabilities were also identified.

Baxley, Brian T.

A Comparative Study of Interval Management Control Law Capabilities

This paper presents a new tool designed to allow for rapid development and testing of different control algorithms for airborne spacing. This tool, Interval Management Modeling and Spacing Tool (IM MAST), is a fast-time, low-fidelity tool created to model the approach of aircraft to a runway, with a focus on their interactions with each other. Errors can be induced between pairs of aircraft by varying initial positions, winds, speed profiles, and altitude profiles. Results to-date show that only a few of the algorithms tested had poor behavior in the arrival and approach environment. The majority of the algorithms showed only minimal variation in performance under the test conditions. Trajectory-based algorithms showed high susceptibility to wind forecast errors, while performing marginally better than the other algorithms under other conditions. Trajectory-based algorithms have a sizable advantage, however, of being able to perform relative spacing operations between aircraft on different arrival routes and flight profiles without employing ghosting. methods. This comes at the higher cost of substantially increased complexity, however. Additionally, it was shown that earlier initiation of relative spacing operations provided more time for corrections to be made without any significant problems in the spacing operation itself. Initiating spacing farther out, however, would require more of the aircraft to begin spacing before they merge onto a common route.

Barmore, Bryan E.

The Impact of Trajectory Prediction Uncertainty on Air Traffic Controller Performance and Acceptability

A Human-In-The-Loop air traffic control simulation investigated the impact of uncertainties in trajectory predictions on NextGen Trajectory-Based Operations concepts, seeking to understand when the automation would become unacceptable to controllers or when performance targets could no longer be met. Retired air traffic controllers staffed two en route transition sectors, delivering arrival traffic to the northwest corner-post of Atlanta approach control under time-based metering operations. Using trajectory-based decision-support tools, the participants worked the traffic under varying levels of wind forecast error and aircraft performance model error, impacting the ground automations ability to make accurate predictions. Results suggest that the controllers were able to maintain high levels of performance, despite even the highest levels of trajectory prediction errors.

trajectory prediction uncertainty

Calculation of Flight Deck Interval Management Assigned Spacing Goals Subject to Multiple Scheduling Constraints

The Federal Aviation Administration's Next Generation Air Transportation System will combine advanced air traffic management technologies, performance-based procedures, and state-of-the-art avionics to maintain efficient operations throughout the entire arrival phase of flight. Flight deck Interval Management (FIM) operations are expected to use sophisticated airborne spacing capabilities to meet precise in-trail spacing from top-of-descent to touchdown. Recent human-in-the-loop simulations by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration have found that selection of the assigned spacing goal using the runway schedule can lead to premature interruptions of the FIM operation during periods of high traffic demand. This study compares three methods for calculating the assigned spacing goal for a FIM operation that is also subject to time-based metering constraints. The particular paradigms investigated include: one based upon the desired runway spacing interval, one based upon the desired meter fix spacing interval, and a composite method that combines both intervals. These three paradigms are evaluated for the primary arrival procedures to Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport using the entire set of Rapid Update Cycle wind forecasts from 2011. For typical meter fix and runway spacing intervals, the runway- and meter fix-based paradigms exhibit moderate FIM interruption rates due to their inability to consider multiple metering constraints. The addition of larger separation buffers decreases the FIM interruption rate but also significantly reduces the achievable runway throughput. The composite paradigm causes no FIM interruptions, and maintains higher runway throughput more often than the other paradigms. A key implication of the results with respect to time-based metering is that FIM operations using a single assigned spacing goal will not allow reduction of the arrival schedule's excess spacing buffer. Alternative solutions for conducting the FIM operation in a manner more compatible with the arrival schedule are discussed in detail.

ATD-1