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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesizing, Compounding, and Characterizing a Heat Labile Polyurethane Foam

ABSTRACT A need exists for a packaging foam material that can be converted from solid to gaseous degradation products at reasonably low energy levels or temperatures, such as 100O C. This paper will primarily discuss the approaches currently being used to synthesize and characterize such a material. These approaches include the incorporation of novel polyols such as azo containing diols, polycarbonate diols, and polypropylene carbonate polyols into polyurethane foams. Characterization methods include NMR, FTIR, TGA, finite element analysis, impact strength, and others. This project will be funded for a duration of three years. Year 1 focused on developing the proposed test methods and producing an initial rigid polyurethane foam. Year 2 focuses on refining the materials and test methods. If appropriate, design of experiment (doe) techniques will be used to optimize components, component levels, density and other variables to attain required final material properties (TGA weight loss, impact strength, etc.). Year 3 focuses on scaling up to larger engineering quantities. The application for this material is in load securement for transportation of low level radioactive waste materials within the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex. Foam in place process equipment and operators will be shielded using this novel method over current practice. Current practice can involve time consuming methods of load securement in low level radiation environments. This new technique would eliminate exposure time securing the load and greatly improve the As Low As Reasonably Attainable (ALARA) conditions. The objective is to progress to higher Technical Readiness Levels (TRL) and larger pilot scale quantities. This paper discusses methodologies and presents current results to date.

Kranjc, Mark D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Accelerating Traction Motor Optimization Design with AI Surrogate Models

The advancement of artificial intelligence systems enables the use of data-driven physics-based surrogate models to explore design spaces rapidly and deeply for engineering projects. This work presents a surrogate model workflow that accelerates electric traction motor design optimization by replacing finite element analysis (FEA) with an artificial neural network (ANN) and using this model in a genetic algorithm for design optimization. A baseline interior permanent-magnet motor is parameterized and sampled to generate FEA-labeled training data, after which a feed-forward ANN predicts key outputs (e.g., loss components and weight). The validated surrogate enables genetic-algorithm optimization and deep search over the design space without new FEA runs, producing Pareto-optimal trade-offs between weight and losses and set of optimized designs for rapid downselection of manufacturable motor designs.

Ribeiro, Pedro [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000921026641)↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning approach for semantic segmentation of unbalanced data in electron tomography of catalytic materials

In computed TEM tomography, image segmentation represents one of the most basic tasks with implications not only for 3D volume visualization, but more importantly for quantitative 3D analysis. In case of large and complex 3D data sets, segmentation can be an extremely difficult and laborious task, and thus has been one of the biggest hurdles for comprehensive 3D analysis. Heterogeneous catalysts have complex surface and bulk structures, and often sparse distribution of catalytic particles with relatively poor intrinsic contrast, which possess a unique challenge for image segmentation, including the current state-of-the-art deep learning methods. To tackle this problem, we apply a deep learning-based approach for the multi-class semantic segmentation of a γ-Alumina/Pt catalytic material in a class imbalance situation. Specifically, we used the weighted focal loss as a loss function and attached it to the U-Net’s fully convolutional network architecture. We assessed the accuracy of our results using Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), recall, precision, and Hausdorff distance (HD) metrics on the overlap between the ground-truth and predicted segmentations. Our adopted U-Net model with the weighted focal loss function achieved an average DSC score of 0.96 ± 0.003 in the γ-Alumina support material and 0.84 ± 0.03 in the Pt NPs segmentation tasks. We report an average boundary-overlap error of less than 2 nm at the 90th percentile of HD for γ-Alumina and Pt NPs segmentations. The complex surface morphology of γ-Alumina and its relation to the Pt NPs were visualized in 3D by the deep learning-assisted automatic segmentation of a large data set of high-angle annular dark-field (HAADF) scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) tomography reconstructions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced steam oxidation resistance of uranium nitride nuclear fuel pellets

Here, the steam oxidation resistance of UN and UN-(20 vol%)ZrN fuel pellets is evaluated to enhance understanding of steam corrosion mechanisms in advanced nuclear fuel materials. In situ neutron diffraction shows the modified UN fuel pellets form a (U 0.77 ,Zr 0.23 )N solid-solution and the sole crystalline oxidation product detected in bulk is (U 0.77 ,Zr 0.23 )O 2 . U 2 N 3 is not detected in significant quantities during the steam oxidation of UN or (U 0.77 ,Zr 0.23 )N and stable lattice parameters show that hydriding does not take place. Steam oxidation rates, obtained via sequential Rietveld refinement show how (U 0.77 ,Zr 0.23 )N has a higher activation energy (79 ± 1 kJmol -1 vs. 50 ± 5 kJmol -1 ), higher onset temperature (430 °C vs. 400 °C) and slower reaction rates for steam oxidation up to 616 °C, than pure UN. Throughout, both UN and (U 0.77 ,Zr 0.23 )N exhibit linear (non-protective) oxidation kinetics, signifying that degradation of the fuel pellets is caused by the evolution of gaseous products at the interface followed by oxide scale spallation. This quantitative and mechanistic understanding of material degradation enables better defined operating regimes and points towards (U,Zr)N solid solutions as a promising strategy for the design of advanced nuclear fuel materials with enhanced steam corrosion resistance.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enzalutamide With Radiation Therapy for Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer: A Phase 2 Study

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is often used as adjuvant treatment with radiation therapy (RT) for intermediate-risk prostate cancer. ADT is associated with multiple side effects, including weight gain, loss of libido, and hot flashes. In contrast, antiandrogen monotherapy has been generally better tolerated. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of enzalutamide (an antiandrogen) monotherapy with RT for the treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effects of neutron and ionizing irradiation on the aqueous corrosion of SiC

Chemical vapor deposited (CVD) SiC and nuclear-grade SiC/SiC composite materials were exposed to light water reactor (LWR) conditions at the MIT Nuclear Reactor (MITR) here. Three sets of samples were exposed within flowing PWR-chemistry-coolant under either 1) neutron and ionizing irradiation with resulting radiolysis products, 2) radiolysis products without neutron flux, 3) loop coolant. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) exhibited an increase in corrosion from radiolysis products (particularly H 2 O 2 ), and potentially a further increase from radiation damage. For CVD SiC, regardless of exposure location, the in-situ observed corrosion rate was less than 1 µm per year, potentially within acceptable limits for LWR application.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Roundtable on Foundational Science for Carbon-Neutral Hydrogen Technologies (Technology Status Document)

This document summarizes the status of carbon-neutral hydrogen production, storage and transport, and utilization. The state of the art in the implementation, limitations, and challenges of these technologies are summarized. Sources of hydrogen are broadly categorized as hydrcoarbons or water and the processes used to convert these sources to hydrogen as catalytic, thermochemical, or electrochemical. Catalytic steam methane reforming of methane is the dominant process today. Other processes have smaller production volumes and the technology is less mature, but are being deployed at increasing rates, most notably water electrolyzers for hydrogen fueling stations. Efficient transport and storage of hydrogen is one of the major challenges facing a hydrogen-based energy economy. This arises in part from its low volumetric energy density necessitating very high pressures or cryogenic temperatures to store sufficient amounts for practical applications. High-pressure compressed hydrogen cylinders are the incumbent hydrogen storage technology for applications such as light-duty fuel cell electric vehicles, for example. The storage of hydrogen in materials or in chemicals is being pursued to address the issues associated with compression, such as parasitic energy loss and weight, size, and cost of storage containers. The complex nature of the chemical and physical processes involved in the uptake, storage, and release of hydrogen has slowed the discovery of suitable hydrogen storage materials. Both small and large-scale storage face the challenge of embrittlement of the storage media by hydrogen. There is a myriad of uses of hydrogen offering the promises of improving the efficiency of various applications and reducing or eliminating CO 2 emissions. These range from direct electrochemical conversion to electricity to power vehicles and grid-level stationary applications to combustion to production of chemicals and commodities. One of the most impactful applications in terms of reduction of CO 2 emissions is fuel cell passenger vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles such as class 8 trucks. The challenges facing widespread deployment of fuel cells, beyond the major hurdle of the lack of a hydrogen distribution infrastructure, are cost and durability, primarily related to the precious metal cathode catalyst and its durability. The other uses of hydrogen from conversion to hydrocarbons, polymer upcycling, and upgrading of bio-oils are at varying stages of maturity and also face fundamental challenges associated with catalytic processes and materials.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantile-dependent expressivity of plasma adiponectin concentrations may explain its sex-specific heritability, gene-environment interactions, and genotype-specific response to postprandial lipemia

“Quantile-dependent expressivity” occurs when the effect size of a genetic variant depends upon whether the phenotype (e.g. adiponectin) is high or low relative to its distribution. We have previously shown that the heritability ( h 2 ) of adiposity, lipoproteins, postprandial lipemia, pulmonary function, and coffee and alcohol consumption are quantile-specific. Whether adiponectin heritability is quantile specific remains to be determined. Plasma adiponectin concentrations from 4,182 offspring-parent pairs and 1,662 sibships from the Framingham Heart Study were analyzed. Quantile-specific heritability from offspring-parent (β OP , h 2 = 2 β OP /(1 + r spouse )) and full-sib regression slopes ( β FS , h 2 = {(1 + 8r spouse β FS ) 0.05 -1}/(2r spouse )) were robustly estimated by quantile regression with nonparametric significance assigned from 1,000 bootstrap samples. Quantile-specific h 2 (± SE) increased with increasing percentiles of the offspring’s age- and sex-adjusted adiponectin distribution when estimated from β OP ( P trend = 2.2 × 10 -6 ): 0.30 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.33 ± 0.04 at the 25th, 0.43 ± 0.04 at the 50th, 0.55 ± 0.05 at the 75th, and 0.57 ± 0.08 at the 90th percentile, and when estimated from β FS (P trend = 7.6 × 10 -7 ): 0.42 ± 0.03 at the 10th, 0.44 ± 0.04 at the 25th, 0.56 ± 0.05 at the 50th, 0.73 ± 0.08 at the 75th, and 0.79 ± 0.11 at the 90th percentile. Consistent with quantile-dependent expressivity, adiponectin’s: (1) heritability was greater in women in accordance with their higher adiponection concentrations; (2) relationships to ADIPOQ polymorphisms were modified by adiposity in accordance with its adiponectin-lowering effect; (3) response to rosiglitazone was predicted by the 45T> G ADIPOQ polymorphism; (4) difference by ADIPOQ haplotypes increased linearly with increasing postprandial adiponectin concentrations. Adiponectin heritability is quantile dependent, which may explain sex-specific heritability, gene-environment and gene-drug interactions, and postprandial response by haplotypes.

Postprandial↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wellbore Stability and Mud Loss Management in Geothermal Drilling: Optimizing Mud Weight to Mitigate Tensile Wellbore Fracturing at The Geysers, California

As part of a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office-funded initiative, Geysers Power Company, LLC, a subsidiary of Calpine Corporation, has been working to enhance drilling performance at the world’s largest geothermal field, The Geysers, in northern California. In a recent drilling operation of the GDC-36 well, excessive mud losses were encountered, initially addressed through repeated but largely ineffective cement plugging. Ultimately, the most effective strategy was to drill blind through the loss zones, made feasible by the high rate of penetration (ROP) achieved with PDC bits, allowing significant progress before the mud tanks were depleted and water-sensitive argillic formation layers could collapse. In response to these challenges, the project team explored alternative methods to minimize downtime and risks associated with cement plugging and continuous mud loss and to contemplate the driving mechanisms for the losses. Wellbore imaging using Formation MicroImager (FMI) and Ultrasonic Borehole Imager (UBI) tools revealed longitudinal tensile fractures, which were attributed to mud weights exceeding the minimum circumferential stress resulting from the native stress field and formation pressure. This study examines the mud losses encountered and leverages wellbore imaging data to understand the mechanisms behind mud induced tensile fracturing in specific rock facies. Understanding fracture behavior across different lithologies is crucial, as fractures within the reservoir can enhance steam migration throughout the system. The reservoir at The Geysers lies within the Mesozoic Franciscan Assemblage, a tectonic mélange formed by subduction. It consists of metamorphosed turbidite sandstone (greywacke) and mudstone (argillite), oceanic upper crust (including greenstone and chert), and serpentinized ultramafic rocks - each exhibiting distinct geomechanical fracturing properties. The structural fabric of the Franciscan Assemblage was shaped by low-angle Mesozoic thrust faulting and later overprinted by sub-vertical strike-slip structures related to the Pacific-North American plate boundary. A wellbore stability model was developed using core measurements and logs to simulate fracturing scenarios during drilling under varying stress conditions. These simulations guided the development of an optimized mud weight management strategy that should enable adaptive adjustments during drilling, reducing the likelihood of tensile fracturing and mud losses, ultimately improving operational efficiency.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental and computational study of polystyrene sulfonate breakdown by a Fenton reaction

Experimental studies and ab initio quantum chemistry calculations were combined to investigate the process by which a Fenton reaction breaks down polystyrene sulfonate. The experimental results show that both molecular weight reduction and loss of aromaticity occur nearly simultaneously, a finding that is supported by the calculations. The results show that more than half of the material is broken down to low molecular weight compounds (< 500 g/mol) with two molar equivalents of H 2 O 2 per styrene monomer. The calculations provide insights into the reaction pathways and indicate that at least two hydroxyl radicals are required to cleave backbone Csingle bondC bonds or to eliminate aromaticity. The calculations also show that, of the aromatic carbons, hydroxyl radical is most likely to add to the carbon bonded to sulfur. This finding explains the loss of hydrogen sulfite anion early in the process and also the efficient reduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II) through semiquinone formation. Taken together the experimental and computational results indicate that the reaction is very efficient and that very little H 2 O 2 is lost to unproductive reactions. In conclusion, this high efficiency is attributed to the close association of Fe atoms with the sulfonate group such that hydroxyl radicals are generated near the polymer chains.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Iterative and Self-Consistent Estimation of Degradation and Soiling Loss in PV Systems - A Case Study

In many parts of the world, soiling is a significant loss mechanism for PV energy production. Methods for accurately quantifying historical and current soiling losses are needed. Furthermore, state-of-the-art methods to estimate degradation rates based on production data do not handle soiling in a satisfactory manner. In order to accurately estimate either of these quantities, it is in many cases helpful to consider their combined effect on PV system performance. In this work we make use of the Combined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) algorithm, which iteratively decomposes time series of daily normalized energy yield into four components: a soiling ratio, a degradation trend, seasonal variations, and noise. We demonstrate the use of the model on field performance data from a utility-scale power plant in a high-soiling environment in the Middle East. We apply the algorithm to the temperature-corrected performance index of the DC power on inverter level, quantifying how soiling varies over time and through the plant. The irradiation-weighted average soiling loss in this plant is 2.3 %, with a median soiling rate of -0.086 %/day. Between the inverters in the site in study, estimated degradation rates range between -0.86 %/year and -0.15 %/year, with a mean rate of -0.48 %/year.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mortality among individuals exposed to atomic bomb radiation in utero: 1950–2012

We examined the mortality risks among 2463 individuals who were exposed in utero to atomic bomb radiation in Hiroshima or Nagasaki in August 1945 and were followed from October 1950 through 2012. Individual estimates of mother’s weighted absorbed uterine dose (DS02R1) were used. Poisson regression method was used to estimate the radiation-associated excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cause-specific mortality. Head size, birth weight, and parents’ survival status were evaluated as potential mediators of radiation effect. There were 339 deaths (216 males and 123 females) including deaths from solid cancer (n = 137), lymphohematopoietic cancer (n = 8), noncancer disease (n = 134), external cause (n = 56), and unknown cause (n = 4). Among males, the unadjusted ERR/Gy (95% CI) was increased for noncancer disease mortality (1.22, 0.10–3.14), but not for solid cancer mortality (-0.18,< -0.77–0.95); the unadjusted ERR/Gy for external cause mortality was not statistically significant (0.28, < -0.60–2.36). Among females, the unadjusted ERRs/Gy were increased for solid cancer (2.24, 0.44–5.58), noncancer (2.86, 0.56–7.64), and external cause mortality (2.57, 0.20–9.19). The ERRs/Gy adjusted for potential mediators did not change appreciably for solid cancer mortality, but decreased notably for noncancer mortality (0.39, < -0.43–1.91 for males; 1.48, - 0.046–4.55 for females) and external cause mortality (0.10, < -0.57–1.96 for males; 1.38, < -0.46–5.95 for females). In conclusion, antenatal radiation exposure is a consistent risk factor for increased solid cancer mortality among females, but not among males. The effect of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on noncancer disease and external cause mortality among individuals exposed in utero was mediated through small head size, low birth weight, and parental loss.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dietary Methionine Supplementation Exacerbates Gastrointestinal Toxicity in a Mouse Model of Abdominal Irradiation

Identification of appropriate dietary strategies for prevention of weight and muscle loss in cancer patients is crucial for successful treatment and prolonged patient survival. High-protein oral nutritional supplements decrease mortality and improve indices of nutritional status in cancer patients; however, high-protein diets are often rich in methionine, and experimental evidence indicates that a methionine-supplemented diet (MSD) exacerbates gastrointestinal toxicity after total body irradiation. Here, we sought to investigate whether MSD can exacerbate gastrointestinal toxicity after local abdominal irradiation, an exposure regimen more relevant to clinical settings.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulations of the fault current limiting operation of a long-length REBCO CORC ® superconducting cable cooled by helium gas

Conductor-on-round-core (CORC®) cables composed of rare-earth-barium-copper-oxide high-temperature superconducting (HTS) tapes are of great interest for power transmission applications due to their many advantages such as high power density, light weight, and low loss. Closed circulation loops of cryogenic helium gas can be used to cool HTS cables down to low temperatures to significantly improve their current-carrying capacity. Coupled circuit-electromagnetic-thermal finite element simulations implemented in the COMSOL Multiphysics package were developed, validated, and then used for simulating the fault current limiting (FCL) performance and the cooling processes of an 8-layer CORC® cable cooled with a flow of cryogenic helium gas. In the simulations, the temperature dependence of the electrical and thermal properties of all component materials is implemented for improved accuracy. To overcome computational challenges caused by the considerable difference in geometrical scales (i.e. few-µm-thick HTS layers versus 10 m-long HTS cable), the model is divided into two separate simulations. The first simulation is performed on the transverse cross-section of the cable to calculate the electric field, heating power and temperature rise in each component of a CORC® cable during FCL operation. The heating power calculated in the first simulation is transferred to the second model to simulate the cooling of a 10 m-long cable after the fault is cleared. The effect of the helium gas flow rate on the cooling process is also investigated to develop strategic approaches for optimizing cooling systems for HTS cables with FCL capability. The simulations indicated that a 40 ms fault with a voltage drop of 20 V m −1 along the cable can result in a temperature increase from 60 K to about 165 K inside the cable, and it takes about 500 s to cool the cable back to nearly 60 K with a flow of cold helium gas at a rate of 5 g s −1 .

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Objective Design Optimization of 100 kW Non-Rare-Earth or Reduced-Rare-Earth Machines

The goal of this project is to reduce the size, weight, cost, and losses associated with rotating electric machinery and its associated power electronics for electric and hybrid vehicle applications. In particular, this effort strives to facilitate electric machinery that will meet the requirements set forth in the USDRIVE Electrical and Electronics Technical Team Roadmap of October 2017. This roadmap calls for an electric machine with a peak power of 100 kW, a continuous rated power of 55 kW, a peak speed of less than 20,000 rpm, a volume of no more than 2 liters, a mass of less than 20 kg, and a useful life of 15 years or 300,000 miles of vehicle service. This will be achieved through a combination of (i) new materials, (ii) new electric machine topologies, (iii) advances in power electronics, and (iv) superior design through the use of formal and rigorous multi-objective optimization-based design founded on advanced analysis techniques.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short-Term Rainfall Prediction Based on Radar Echo Using an Improved Self-Attention PredRNN Deep Learning Model

Accurate short-term precipitation forecast is extremely important for urban flood warning and natural disaster prevention. In this paper, we present an innovative deep learning model named ISA-PredRNN (improved self-attention PredRNN) for precipitation nowcasting based on radar echoes on the basis of the advanced PredRNN-V2. We introduce the self-attention mechanism and the long-term memory state into the model and design a new set of gating mechanisms. To better capture different intensities of precipitation, the loss function with weights was designed. We further train the model using a combination of reverse scheduled sampling and scheduled sampling to learn the long-term dynamics from the radar echo sequences. Experimental results show that the new model (ISA-PredRNN) can effectively extract the spatiotemporal features of radar echo maps and obtain radar echo prediction results with a small gap from the ground truths. From the comparison with the other six models, the new ISA-PredRNN model has the most accurate prediction results with a critical success index (CSI) of 0.7001, 0.5812 and 0.3052 under the radar echo thresholds of 10 dBZ, 20 dBZ and 30 dBZ, respectively.

Wu, Dali (ORCID:0000000231177074)↗