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Analysis and Prediction of Weather Impacted Ground Stop Operations

When the air traffic demand is expected to exceed the available airport's capacity for a short period of time, Ground Stop (GS) operations are implemented by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Traffic Flow Management (TFM). The GS requires departing aircraft meeting specific criteria to remain on the ground to achieve reduced demands at the constrained destination airport until the end of the GS. This paper provides a high-level overview of the statistical distributions as well as causal factors for the GSs at the major airports in the United States. The GS's character, the weather impact on GSs, GS variations with delays, and the interaction between GSs and Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) are investigated. The machine learning methods are used to generate classification models that map the historical airport weather forecast, schedule traffic, and other airport conditions to implemented GS/GDP operations and the models are evaluated using the cross-validations. This modeling approach produced promising results as it yielded an 85% overall classification accuracy to distinguish the implemented GS days from the normal days without GS and GDP operations and a 71% accuracy to differentiate the GS and GDP implemented days from the GDP only days.

Analysis↗

Effects of carbon/graphite fiber contamination on high voltage electrical insulation

The contamination mechanics and resulting failure modes of high voltage electrical insulation due to carbon/graphite fibers were examined. The high voltage insulation vulnerability to carbon/graphite fiber induced failure was evaluated using a contamination system which consisted of a fiber chopper, dispersal chamber, a contamination chamber, and air ducts and suction blower. Tests were conducted to evaluate the effects of fiber length, weathering, and wetness on the insulator's resistance to carbon/graphite fibers. The ability of nuclear, fossil, and hydro power generating stations to maintain normal power generation when the surrounding environment is contaminated by an accidental carbon fiber release was investigated. The vulnerability assessment included only the power plant generating equipment and its associated controls, instrumentation, and auxiliary and support systems.

Garrity, T.↗

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 2: Estimation of the urban bias

A methodology is presented for estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures due to the effect of the urban heat island. Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate, site-specific data to represent the local landscape, and satellite-derived data -- the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) nighttime brightness data -- to represent the urban and rural landscape. Local NDVI and DMSP values were calculated for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 3 km x 3 km area centered over the given station. Regional NDVI and DMSP values were calculated to represent a typical rural value for each station using the mean NDVI and DMSP values from a 1 deg x 1 deg latitude-longitude area in which the given station was located. Models for the United States were then developed for monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures using data from over 1000 stations in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and for monthly mean temperatures with data from over 1150 stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Local biases, or the differences between the model predictions using the observed NDVI and DMSP values, and the predictions using the background regional values were calculated and compared with the results of other research. The local or urban bias of U.S. temperatures, as derived from all U.S. stations (urban and rural) used in the models, averaged near 0.40 C for monthly minimum temperatures, near 0.25 C for monthly mean temperatures, and near 0.10 C for monthly maximum temperatures. The biases of monthly minimum temperatures for individual stations ranged from near -1.1 C for rural stations to 2.4 C for stations from the largest urban areas. The results of this study indicate minimal problems for global application once global NDVI and DMSP data become available.

Epperson, David L.↗

Report on the Radar/PIREP Cloud Top Discrepancy Study

This report documents the results of the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) investigation of inconsistencies between pilot reported cloud top heights and weather radar indicated echo top heights (assumed to be cloud tops) as identified by the 45 Weather Squadron (45WS). The objective for this study is to document and understand the differences in echo top characteristics as displayed on both the WSR-88D and WSR-74C radars and cloud top heights reported by the contract weather aircraft in support of space launch operations at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS), Florida. These inconsistencies are of operational concern since various Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) and Flight Rules (FR) in part describe safe and unsafe conditions as a function of cloud thickness. Some background radar information was presented. Scan strategies for the WSR-74C and WSR-88D were reviewed along with a description of normal radar beam propagation influenced by the Effective Earth Radius Model. Atmospheric conditions prior to and leading up to both launch operations were detailed. Through the analysis of rawinsonde and radar data, atmospheric refraction or bending of the radar beam was identified as the cause of the discrepancies between reported cloud top heights by the contract weather aircraft and those as identified by both radars. The atmospheric refraction caused the radar beam to be further bent toward the Earth than normal. This radar beam bending causes the radar target to be displayed erroneously, with higher cloud top heights and a very blocky or skewed appearance.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

A Modeling Study of the Spring 2011 Extreme US Weather Activity

The spring of 2011 was characterized by record-breaking tornadic activity with substantial loss of life and destruction of property. While a waning La Nina and other atmospheric teleconnections have been implicated in the development of these extreme weather events, a quantitative assessment of their causes is still lacking. This study uses high resolution (1/4 lat/lon) GEOS-5 AGCM experiments to quantify the role of SSTs and soil moisture in the development of the extreme weather activity with a focus on April - the month of peak tornadic activity. The simulations, consisting of 22-member ensembles of three-month long simulations (initialized March 1st) reproduce the main features of the observed large-scale changes including the below-normal temperature and above-normal precipitation in the Central US, and the hot and dry conditions to the south. Various sensitivity experiments are conducted to separate the roles of the SST, soil moisture and the initial atmospheric conditions in the development and predictability of the atmospheric conditions (wind shear, moisture, etc.) favoring the severe weather activity and flooding.

Schubert, S.↗

The Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS), Higher Volume Operations (HVO) Off-Nominal Operations

The ability to conduct concurrent, multiple aircraft operations in poor weather, at virtually any airport, offers an important opportunity for a significant increase in the rate of flight operations, a major improvement in passenger convenience, and the potential to foster growth of charter operations at small airports. The Small Aircraft Transportation System, (SATS) Higher Volume Operations (HVO) concept is designed to increase traffic flow at any of the 3400 nonradar, non-towered airports in the United States where operations are currently restricted to one-in/one-out procedural separation during Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). The concept's key feature is pilots maintain their own separation from other aircraft using procedures, aircraft flight data sent via air-to-air datalink, cockpit displays, and on-board software. This is done within the Self-Controlled Area (SCA), an area of flight operations established during poor visibility or low ceilings around an airport without Air Traffic Control (ATC) services. The research described in this paper expands the HVO concept to include most off-nominal situations that could be expected to occur in a future SATS environment. The situations were categorized into routine off-nominal operations, procedural deviations, equipment malfunctions, and aircraft emergencies. The combination of normal and off-nominal HVO procedures provides evidence for an operational concept that is safe, requires little ground infrastructure, and enables concurrent flight operations in poor weather.

Baxley, B.↗

Detection of Flooding Responses at the River Basin Scale Enhanced by Land use Change

The Georges Creek watershed (area 187.5 sq km) in western Maryland (United States) has experienced land use changes (>17% of area) associated with surface mining of coal. The adjacent Savage River watershed (area 127.2 sq km) is unmined. Moments of flood frequency distributions indicated that climatic variability affected both watersheds similarly. Normalizing annual maximum flows by antecedent streamflow and causative precipitation helped identify trends in flooding response. Analysis of contemporary storm events using Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) stage III precipitation data showed that Georges Creek floods are characterized by higher peak runoff and a shorter centroid lag than Savage River floods, likely attributable to differences in current land use. Interestingly, Georges Creek produces only two thirds of the storm-flow volume as Savage River, apparently because of infiltration into abandoned deep mine workings and an associated transbasin diversion constructed circa 1900. Empirical trend analysis is thus complicated by both hydroclimatic variability and the legacy of deep mining in the basin.

McCormick, Brian C.↗

Small Aircraft Transportation System, Higher Volume Operations Concept: Normal Operations

This document defines the Small Aircraft Transportation System (SATS), Higher Volume Operations (HVO) concept for normal conditions. In this concept, a block of airspace would be established around designated non-towered, non-radar airports during periods of poor weather. Within this new airspace, pilots would take responsibility for separation assurance between their aircraft and other similarly equipped aircraft. Using onboard equipment and procedures, they would then approach and land at the airport. Departures would be handled in a similar fashion. The details for this operational concept are provided in this document.

Abbott, Terence S.↗

Geoeffectiveness of Interplanetary Shocks Controlled By Impact Angles: Past Research, Recent Advancements, and Future Work

Interplanetary shocks are disturbances commonly observed in the solar wind. IP shock impacts can cause a myriad of space weather effects in the Earth’s magnetopause, inner magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, and ground magnetic field. The shock impact angle, measured as the angle the shock normal vector performs with the Sun-Earth line, has been shown to be a very important parameter that controls shock geoeffectivess. An extensive review provided by Oliveira and Samsonov (2018) summarized all the work known at the time with respect to shock impact angles and geomagnetic activity; however, this topic has had some progress since Oliveira and Samsonov (2018) and the main goal of this mini review is to summarize all achievements to date in the topic to the knowledge of the author. Finally, this mini review also brings a few suggestions and ideas for future research in the area of IP shock impact angle geoeffectiveness.

interplanetary shocks↗

Global Weather States and Their Properties from Passive and Active Satellite Cloud Retrievals

In this study, the authors apply a clustering algorithm to International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud optical thickness-cloud top pressure histograms in order to derive weather states (WSs) for the global domain. The cloud property distribution within each WS is examined and the geographical variability of each WS is mapped. Once the global WSs are derived, a combination of CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) vertical cloud structure retrievals is used to derive the vertical distribution of the cloud field within each WS. Finally, the dynamic environment and the radiative signature of the WSs are derived and their variability is examined. The cluster analysis produces a comprehensive description of global atmospheric conditions through the derivation of 11 WSs, each representing a distinct cloud structure characterized by the horizontal distribution of cloud optical depth and cloud top pressure. Matching those distinct WSs with cloud vertical profiles derived from CloudSat and CALIPSO retrievals shows that the ISCCP WSs exhibit unique distributions of vertical layering that correspond well to the horizontal structure of cloud properties. Matching the derived WSs with vertical velocity measurements shows a normal progression in dynamic regime when moving from the most convective to the least convective WS. Time trend analysis of the WSs shows a sharp increase of the fair-weather WS in the 1990s and a flattening of that increase in the 2000s. The fact that the fair-weather WS is the one with the lowest cloud radiative cooling capability implies that this behavior has contributed excess radiative warming to the global radiative budget during the 1990s.

histograms↗

Impact of Optimized land Surface Parameters on the Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations of Dry and Wet Extremes

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to the land cover and soil type mapping of the observations and the full domain. The impact of the calibrated parameters on the a) spin up of land surface states used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture fluxes of the coupled (LIS-WRF) simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather, PBL budgets, and precipitation along with L-A coupling diagnostics. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, normal) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity (e.g.,. relating to the representation of the spatial dependence of parameters) and the feasibility of calibrating to multiple observational datasets are also discussed.

Kumar, Sujay↗

Impact of Air Traffic Reductions during the COVID-19 Pandemic on Aircraft-induced Clouds and their Radiative Effects

Air travel restrictions due to the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic drastically reduced air travel internationally during the spring of 2020. Such an extraordinary disruption of air traffic may have a profound effect on contrail formation that could allow for better quantification and scientific understanding of the radiative impacts of aviation-induced clouds on climate. This investigation synergizes MODIS, CrIS, and GOES-16 satellite analyses with weather analyses, including those from GEOS and MERRA, to compare contrail formation conditions and radiative forcings of linear contrails and thin cirrus detected over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and the North Atlantic for the 2020 air traffic slowdown period with parallel analyses conducted for a baseline period from a previous year with normal air traffic. A consistent analysis system for contrail detection and cloud property retrievals (e.g. optical depth, particle size, and altitude) from satellites, coupled with radiative transfer modeling are applied to characterize and contrast contrail cirrus properties and radiative effects estimated during the pandemic and baseline periods. Temperature and humidity profiles from numerical weather models and hyperspectral infrared measurements are used to estimate the contrail formation potential (CFP) over the study areas in order to help choose the most appropriate baseline period and to account for potential impacts of differences in meteorology on contrail formation and coverage. This study, using NASA satellite data and other assets, is expected to improve our understanding of the relationship between air traffic, contrail cirrus coverage and related impacts in order to better quantify the need for contrail formation mitigation strategies that could reduce aviation effects on climate.

William L Smith↗

Some problems in coupling solar activity to meteorological phenomena

The development of a theory of coupling of solar activity to meteorological phenomena is hindered by the difficulties of devising a mechanism that can modify the behavior of the troposphere while employing only a negligible amount of energy compared with the energy necessary to drive the normal meteorological system, and determining how such a mechanism can effectively couple some relevant magnetospheric process into the troposphere in such a way as to influence the weather. A clue to the nature of the interaction between the weather and solar activity might be provided by the fact that most solar activity undergoes a definite 11-yr cycle, and meteorological phenomena undergo either no closely correlated variation, an 11-yr variation, or a 22-yr variation.

Dessler, A. J.↗

Some problems in coupling solar activity to meteorological phenomena

The development of a theory of coupling of solar activity to meteorological phenomena has to date foundered on the two difficulties of (1) devising a mechanism that can modify the behavior of the troposphere while employing only a negligible amount of energy compared with the energy necessary to drive the normal meteorological system; and (2) determining how such a mechanism can effectively couple some relevant magnetospheric process into the troposphere in such a way as to influence the weather. A clue to the nature of the interaction between the weather and solar activity might be provided by the fact that most solar activity undergoes a definite 11-year cycle, while meteorological phenomena undergo either no closely correlated variation, or an 11-year variation, or a 22-year variation.

Dessler, A. J.↗

Use of a Prototype Airborne Separation Assurance System for Resolving Near-Term Conflicts During Autonomous Aircraft Operations

NASA is currently investigating a new concept of operations for the National Airspace System, designed to improve capacity while maintaining or improving current levels of safety. This concept, known as Distributed Air/Ground Traffic Management (DAGTM), allows appropriately equipped autonomous aircraft to maneuver freely for flight optimization while resolving conflicts with other traffic and staying out of special use airspace and hazardous weather. In order to perform these tasks, pilots use prototype conflict detection, prevention, and resolution tools, collectively known as an Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS). While ASAS would normally allow pilots to resolve conflicts before they become hazardous, evaluation of system performance in sudden, near-term conflicts is needed in order to determine concept feasibility. An experiment was conducted in NASA Langley's Air Traffic Operations Lab to evaluate the prototype ASAS for enabling pilots to resolve near-term conflicts and examine possible operational effects associated with the use of lower separation minimums. Sixteen commercial airline pilots flew a total of 32 traffic scenarios that required them to use prototype ASAS tools to resolve close range pop-up conflicts. Required separation standards were set at either 3 or 5 NM lateral spacing, with 1000 ft vertical separation being used for both cases. Reducing the lateral separation from 5 to 3 NM did not appear to increase operational risk, as indicated by the proximity to the intruder aircraft. Pilots performed better when they followed tactical guidance cues provided by ASAS than when they didn't follow the guidance. In an effort to improve compliance rate, ASAS design changes are currently under consideration. Further studies will of evaluate these design changes and consider integration issues between ASAS and existing Airborne Collision Avoidance Systems (ACAS).

Barhydt, Richard↗

Dynamic Weather Routes: Two Years of Operational Testing at American Airlines

The Dynamic Weather Routes (DWR) tool continuously analyzes active flights in en-route airspace and finds simple route corrections to achieve more time- and fuel-efficient routes around convective weather. A strong partnership between NASA, American Airlines (AA), and the Federal Aviation Administration has enabled testing of DWR in real-world air traffic operations. NASA and AA have been conducting a trial of DWR at AA’s Integrated Operations Center in Fort Worth, Texas since July 2012. This paper describes test results based on AA’s use of DWR for their flights in and around Fort Worth Center (ZFW). Results indicate an actual savings of 3,290 flying minutes for 526 AA revenue flights from January 2013 through September 2014. Of these, 48 flights each indicate a savings of 15 minutes or more. Potential savings for all flights in ZFW airspace, corrected for savings flights achieve today through normal pilot requests and controller clearances, is about 100,000 flying minutes for 15,000 flights in 2013. Results indicate that AA flights with DWR in use realize about 20 percent more savings than non-AA flights. A weather forecast analysis examines the extent to which DWR routes rated acceptable by AA users remain clear of downstream weather. A sector congestion analysis indicates congestion could be reduced 19-38 percent if all flights fly DWR routes rather than nominal weather-avoidance routes.

Trajectory Automation↗

Sensor to User - NASA/EOS Data for Coastal Zone Management Applications Developed from Integrated Analyses: Verification, Validation and Benchmark Report

The NASA Applied Sciences Program seeks to transfer NASA data, models, and knowledge into the hands of end-users by forming links with partner agencies and associated decision support tools (DSTs). Through the NASA REASoN (Research, Education and Applications Solutions Network) Cooperative Agreement, the Oceanography Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRLSSC) is developing new products through the integration of data from NASA Earth-Sun System assets with coastal ocean forecast models and other available data to enhance coastal management in the Gulf of Mexico. The recipient federal agency for this research effort is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The contents of this report detail the effort to further the goals of the NASA Applied Sciences Program by demonstrating the use of NASA satellite products combined with data-assimilating ocean models to provide near real-time information to maritime users and coastal managers of the Gulf of Mexico. This effort provides new and improved capabilities for monitoring, assessing, and predicting the coastal environment. Coastal managers can exploit these capabilities through enhanced DSTs at federal, state and local agencies. The project addresses three major issues facing coastal managers: 1) Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs); 2) hypoxia; and 3) freshwater fluxes to the coastal ocean. A suite of ocean products capable of describing Ocean Weather is assembled on a daily basis as the foundation for this semi-operational multiyear effort. This continuous realtime capability brings decision makers a new ability to monitor both normal and anomalous coastal ocean conditions with a steady flow of satellite and ocean model conditions. Furthermore, as the baseline data sets are used more extensively and the customer list increased, customer feedback is obtained and additional customized products are developed and provided to decision makers. Continual customer feedback and response with new improved products are required between the researcher and customer. This document details the methods by which these coastal ocean products are produced including the data flow, distribution, and verification. Product applications and the degree to which these products are used successfully within NOAA and coordinated with the Mississippi Department of Marine Resources (MDMR) is benchmarked.

Hall, Callie↗

Quality Control Methods of Tower Data at Kennedy Space Center’s Launch Complex 39-B and the USAF Cape Canaveral 500 Foot Tower

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has long used meteorological data from weather towers located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the United States Air Force’s Eastern Range(ER) in support of their various launch vehicles and climate studies. Some of the most valuable data is gathered at the Launch Complex 39-B (LC39-B) and the 500 foot tower located approximately two miles west of LC39-B and three miles north of the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB). The data from LC39-B gives NASA Space Launch System (SLS) engineers valuable insight into the weather the vehicle can expect at the pad, while the 500 foot tower has a longer period of record and has been used by the Shuttle and SLS programs. However, numerous data quality (DQ) control issues have arisen when utilizing this data for analysis. In addition, instrumentation tends to deteriorate faster than normal due to the corrosive nature of the high salt content in the air. NASA’s Natural Environments branch has developed several QC databases of these towers, but these studies were for fixed periods of records. EV44 identified a need for a continually updated and QC’ed database of tower data not only to provide along term QC’ed database for vehicle and climate analyses, but also to provide the capability to investigate recent weather events such as downbursts and other high wind events. This study follows the methods developed in prior Natural Environment QC tower databases, which includes variable specific QC thresholds and checks used to generate QC flags. However, this study developed new techniques such as the development and design of the graphical user interface (GUI) for manual verification, and the creation of the final monthly QC files.

Quality Control↗