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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Analysis of rapidly developing fog at the Kennedy Space Center

Space Shuttle landings at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) are of special concern to NASA's landing community because of Florida's rapidly changing weather conditions. Since a large number of Shuttle landing attempts occur in the morning hours (just after sunrise) fog and stratus development are a problem. The deorbit burn decision for a landing at KSC is typically made 90 minutes before Shuttle touchdown. In that 90 minutes weather conditions can change very rapidly. Fog to the west of KSC an advect in and reduce visibility to less than 7 miles. The most important difference between Shuttle and normal aircraft landings is that the Shuttle has no go-around capability requiring a forecast with little room for error. To help guard against rapidly changing weather conditions, flight rules have been developed as guidelines for all landings. This paper concerns fog development that would affect less than 7-statue mile visibility rule which is in effect for End-Of-Mission (EOM) Shuttle landings at KSC (Rule 4-64(A)). Data used for this analysis included hourly surface observations at the X68 Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) and upper-air observations form the CCAFS (Cape Canaveral Air Force Station-72794) rawinsonde site for the five year period, 1986 to 1990. This investigation focused on rapidly developing fog or stratus that developed between decision time and landing.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Identifying Hail Signatures in Satellite Imagery from the 9-10 August 2011 Severe Weather Event

Severe thunderstorms can produce large hail that causes property damage, livestock fatalities, and crop failure. However, detailed storm surveys of hail damage conducted by the National Weather Service (NWS) are not required. Current gaps also exist between Storm Prediction Center (SPC) hail damage estimates and crop‐insurance payouts. NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to support NWS damage assessments, particularly to crops during the growing season. The two‐day severe weather event across western Nebraska and central Kansas during 9‐10 August 2011 offers a case study for investigating hail damage signatures by examining changes in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from MODIS imagery. By analyzing hail damage swaths in satellite imagery, potential economic losses due to crop damage can be quantified and further improve the estimation of weather impacts on agriculture without significantly increasing manpower requirements.

Dryden, Rachel L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations before 2.2 billion years ago

The composition of the Earth's early atmosphere is a subject of continuing debate. In particular, it has been suggested that elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide would have been necessary to maintain normal surface temperatures in the face of lower solar luminosity in early Earth history. Fossil weathering profiles, known as palaeosols, have provided semi-quantitative constraints on atmospheric oxygen partial pressure (pO2) before 2.2 Gyr ago. Here we use the same well studied palaeosols to constrain atmospheric pCO2 between 2.75 and 2.2 Gyr ago. The observation that iron lost from the tops of these profiles was reprecipitated lower down as iron silicate minerals, rather than as iron carbonate, indicates that atmospheric pCO2 must have been less than 10(-1.4) atm--about 100 times today's level of 360 p.p.m., and at least five times lower than that required in one-dimensional climate models to compensate for lower solar luminosity at 2.75 Gyr. Our results suggest that either the Earth's early climate was much more sensitive to increases in pCO2 than has been thought, or that one or more greenhouse gases other than CO2 contributed significantly to the atmosphere's radiative balance during the late Archaean and early Proterozoic eons.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS2015

NGSLR Safety Handbook

NASA's Next Generation Satellite Laser Ranging (NGSLR) station is the prototype for NASA's Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) systems which will be deployed around the world in the coming decade. The NGSLR system will be an autonomous, photon-counting SLR station with an expected absolute range accuracy of better than one centimeter and a normal point (time-averaged) range precision better than one millimeter. The system provides continuous (weather permitting), 24 hour tracking coverage to an existing constellation of approximately two dozen artificial satellites equipped with passive retroreflector arrays, using pulsed, 532 nm, class IV laser systems. Current details on the approved laser systems can be found in the Appendix 1 of this document. This safety plan addresses the potential hazards to emitted laser radiation, which can occur both inside and outside the shelter. Hazards within the shelter are mitigated through posted warning signs, activated warning lights, procedural controls, personal protective equipment (PPE), laser curtains, beam blocking systems, interlock controls, pre-configured laser control settings, and other controls discussed in this document. Since the NGSLR is a satellite tracking system, laser hazards exist outside the shelter to personnel on the shelter roof and to passing aircraft. Potential exposure to personnel outside the system is mitigated through the use of posted warning signs, access control, procedural controls, a stairwell interlock, beam attenuation/blocking devices, and a radar based aircraft detection system.

satellite laser ranging↗
NASA NTRS2017

The International Heat Stress Genotype Experiment for Modeling Wheat Response to Heat: Field Experiments and AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations

The data set contains a portion of the International Heat Stress Genotype Experiment (IHSGE) data used in the AgMIP-Wheat project to analyze the uncertainty of 30 wheat crop models and quantify the impact of heat on global wheat yield productivity. It includes two spring wheat cultivars grown during two consecutive winter cropping cycles at hot, irrigated, and low latitude sites in Mexico (Ciudad Obregon and Tlaltizapan), Egypt (Aswan), India (Dharwar), the Sudan (Wad Medani), and Bangladesh (Dinajpur). Experiments in Mexico included normal (November-December) and late (January-March) sowing dates. Data include local daily weather data, soil characteristics and initial soil conditions, crop measurements (anthesis and maturity dates, anthesis and final total above ground biomass, final grain yields and yields components), and cultivar information. Simulations include both daily in-season and end-of-season results from 30 wheat models.

Wheat; Field Experimental Data; Heat Stress; Simul↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). Portions of the Northern Plains states experienced substantial increases in convective available potential energy as a result of the higher SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. These differences produced subtle yet quantifiable differences in the simulated convective precipitation systems for this event.

Bell, Jordan R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robustness of energy performance of Zero-Net-Energy (ZNE) homes

Zero-net-energy (ZNE) homes produce an adequate amount of energy on-site to meet their energy demand based on source energy for an entire year. California building energy efficiency standards require new residential buildings started in 2020 to be ZNE. For various reasons, a home designed as ZNE may not achieve ZNE performance in real operation. Here we aimed to quantify the robustness of the energy performance of ZNE homes due to weather variability, climate change, and the uncertainty of occupant behavior. A single-family ZNE house, based on the optimal cost-effective design in three California climate zones, was used to develop the EnergyPlus simulation models. Weather variations were considered from a combination of the historical 30 years’ actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, typical year weather data in TMY3, and future weather data based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. Three scenarios of occupant behavior from the energy perspective were defined to represent the uncertainty about occupants’ activities, comfort requirements, and their adaptive interactions with buildings and systems. In terms of annual source energy, the simulation results of the ZNE homes showed: (1) a decrease of 23–38 percent for occupants with energy austerity behavior and an increase of 120–130 percent for occupants with energy wasteful behavior, compared with the baseline assumption of normal occupants; (2) a variation range of –15 percent to +14 percent for the results using 30-year AMY weather data compared with the baseline results using TMY3 weather data; (3) an increase of 10–13 percent with future weather in Fresno and Riverside and a decrease of 15 percent with San Francisco; and (4) climate change can reduce the gap between the austerity and wasteful consumption. These findings provide insights into how ZNE homes may perform in reality and inform architects, engineers, occupants, and policymakers to pay more attention to occupant behavior on design, operation, and regulations of ZNE homes to ensure energy performance robustness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2012

Effects of Real-Time NASA Vegetation Data on Model Forecasts of Severe Weather

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA-EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT started generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States beginning 1 June 2010. A companion poster presentation (Bell et al.) primarily focuses on impact results in an offline configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) for the 2010 warm season, comparing the SPoRT/MODIS GVF dataset to the current operational monthly climatology GVF available within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. This paper/presentation primarily focuses on individual case studies of severe weather events to determine the impacts and possible improvements by using the real-time, high-resolution SPoRT-MODIS GVFs in place of the coarser-resolution NCEP climatological GVFs in model simulations. The NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling system is employed to conduct the sensitivity simulations of individual events. The NU-WRF is an integrated modeling system based on the Advanced Research WRF dynamical core that is designed to represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and land processes at satellite-resolved scales in a coupled simulation environment. For this experiment, the coupling between the NASA Land Information System (LIS) and the WRF model is utilized to measure the impacts of the daily SPoRT/MODIS versus the monthly NCEP climatology GVFs. First, a spin-up run of the LIS is integrated for two years using the Noah LSM to ensure that the land surface fields reach an equilibrium state on the 4-km grid mesh used. Next, the spin-up LIS is run in two separate modes beginning on 1 June 2010, one continuing with the climatology GVFs while the other uses the daily SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. Finally, snapshots of the LIS land surface fields are used to initialize two different simulations of the NU-WRF, one running with climatology LIS and GVFs, and the other running with experimental LIS and NASA/SPoRT GVFs. In this paper/presentation, case study results will be highlighted in regions with significant differences in GVF between the NCEP climatology and SPoRT product during severe weather episodes.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Cloud Statistics for NASA Climate Change Studies

The Principal Investigator participated in two field experiments and developed a global data set on cirrus cloud frequency and optical depth to aid the development of numerical models of climate. Four papers were published under this grant. The accomplishments are summarized: (1) In SUCCESS (SUbsonic aircraft: Contrail & Cloud Effects Special Study) the Principal Investigator aided weather forecasters in the start of the field program. A paper also was published on the clouds studied in SUCCESS and the use of the satellite stereographic technique to distinguish cloud forms and heights of clouds. (2) In SHEBA (Surface Heat Budget in the Arctic) FIRE/ACE (Arctic Cloud Experiment) the Principal Investigator provided daily weather and cloud forecasts for four research aircraft crews, NASA's ER-2, UCAR's C-130, University of Washington's Convert 580, and the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service's Convert 580. Approximately 105 forecasts were written. The Principal Investigator also made daily weather summaries with calculations of air trajectories for 54 flight days in the experiment. The trajectories show where the air sampled during the flights came from and will be used in future publications to discuss the origin and history of the air and clouds sampled by the aircraft. A paper discussing how well the FIRE/ACE data represent normal climatic conditions in the arctic is being prepared. (3) The Principal Investigator's web page became the source of information for weather forecasting by the scientists on the SHEBA ship. (4) Global Cirrus frequency and optical depth is a continuing analysis of global cloud cover and frequency distribution are being made from the NOAA polar orbiting weather satellites. This analysis is sensitive to cirrus clouds because of the radiative channels used. During this grant three papers were published which describe cloud frequencies, their optical properties and compare the Wisconsin FM Cloud Analysis to other global cloud data such as the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Program (ISCCP) and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE). A summary of eight years of HIRS data will be published in late 1998. Important information from this study are: 1) cirrus clouds cover most of the earth, 2) they are found about 40% of the time globally, 3) in the tropics cirrus cloud frequencies are even higher, from 80-100%, 4) there is slight evidence that cirnis cloud cover is increasing in the northern hemisphere at about 0.5% per year, and 5) cirrus clouds have an average infrared transmittance of about 40% of the terrestrial radiation. (5) Global Cloud Frequency Statistics published on the Principal Investigator's web page have been used in the planning of the future CRYSTAL experiment and have been used for refinements of a global numerical model operated at the Colorado State University.

Wylie, Donald P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Age and isotopic relationships among the angrites Lewis Cliff 86010 and Angra dos Reis

The paper presents results of a wide-ranging isotopic investigation of the the Antarctic angrite LEW-86010 (LEW), and reassesses the type angrite Angra dos Reis (ADOR) in order to obtain precise radiometric ages and initial Sr isotopic compositions, and to search for the erstwhile presence of the short-lived nuclei Sm-146 and Al-26 via their daughter products. The isotopic compositions of Sm, U, Ca, and Ti were measured to allow a detailed appraisal to be made of the relations between, and the geneology of, these two angrites. LEW proves to be severely contaminated with modern terrestrial Pb, which is shown to result from terrestrial weathering. Concordant Pb-Pb model ages of pyroxene separates are obtained; uranium isotopic compositions are normal within error. Overall, striking age and isotopic similarities between LEW and ADOR were found, suggesting almost simultaneous production on the same asteroid, even though recent experimental studies imply that the two are not comagmatic.

Lugmair, G. W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Enhanced/Synthetic Vision and Head-Worn Display Technologies for Terminal Maneuvering Area NextGen Operations

NASA is researching innovative technologies for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) to provide a "Better-Than-Visual" (BTV) capability as adjunct to "Equivalent Visual Operations" (EVO); that is, airport throughputs equivalent to that normally achieved during Visual Flight Rules (VFR) operations rates with equivalent and better safety in all weather and visibility conditions including Instrument Meteorological Conditions (IMC). These new technologies build on proven flight deck systems and leverage synthetic and enhanced vision systems. Two piloted simulation studies were conducted to access the use of a Head-Worn Display (HWD) with head tracking for synthetic and enhanced vision systems concepts. The first experiment evaluated the use a HWD for equivalent visual operations to San Francisco International Airport (airport identifier: KSFO) compared to a visual concept and a head-down display concept. A second experiment evaluated symbology variations under different visibility conditions using a HWD during taxi operations at Chicago O'Hare airport (airport identifier: KORD). Two experiments were conducted, one in a simulated San Francisco airport (KSFO) approach operation and the other, in simulated Chicago O'Hare surface operations, evaluating enhanced/synthetic vision and head-worn display technologies for NextGen operations. While flying a closely-spaced parallel approach to KSFO, pilots rated the HWD, under low-visibility conditions, equivalent to the out-the-window condition, under unlimited visibility, in terms of situational awareness (SA) and mental workload compared to a head-down enhanced vision system. There were no differences between the 3 display concepts in terms of traffic spacing and distance and the pilot decision-making to land or go-around. For the KORD experiment, the visibility condition was not a factor in pilot's rating of clutter effects from symbology. Several concepts for enhanced implementations of an unlimited field-of-regard BTV concept for low-visibility surface operations were determined to be equivalent in pilot ratings of efficacy and usability.

Arthur, Jarvis J., III↗
NASA NTRS2011

Identification of Abnormal System Noise Temperature Patterns in Deep Space Network Antennas Using Neural Network Trained Fuzzy Logic

This paper presents the development of a fuzzy logic function trained by an artificial neural network to classify the system noise temperature (SNT) of antennas in the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN). The SNT data were classified into normal, marginal, and abnormal classes. The irregular SNT pattern was further correlated with link margin and weather data. A reasonably good correlation is detected among high SNT, low link margin and the effect of bad weather; however we also saw some unexpected non-correlations which merit further study in the future.

pattern identification↗
NASA NTRS2017

Enabling NLDAS-2 Anomaly Analysis Using Giovanni

A newly implemented feature in Giovanni (GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Interface) allows users to explore and visualize anomaly data from the NLDAS-2 Primary Forcing and Noah model data sets. For a given measurement and location, an anomaly describes how conditions for a particular time period compare to normal conditions, based on long-term averages. Analyzing anomalies is important for monitoring droughts, determining weather trends, and studying land surface processes relevant for meteorology, hydrology, and climate. Using Giovanni to analyze anomalies for NLDAS-2 data allows for these studies to be efficiently conducted for the central North American region. Phase 2 of NLDAS (NLDAS-2) currently runs at an 1/8th degree resolution, in near-real time, with data sets extending back to January 1979. NLDAS-2 provides data for soil moisture, precipitation, temperature, and other hydrology measurements. Hourly, monthly, and 30-year (1980-2009) monthly climatology data are available for several land surface models and forcing data sets. The Giovanni anomaly tool calculates monthly anomalies, for a given user-defined variable, as the difference between the NLDAS-2 monthly climatology data and the monthly data. The resulting anomaly describes how a chosen month compares to the 30-year monthly average. The presentation will demonstrate the capabilities and usefulness of Giovanni's anomaly tool, detail the recently added NLDAS-2 variables for which anomalies are available, and show how users can access the data.

drough↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Duration of Chemical Weathering of Gusev Crater's Wishstone-Watchtower Sequence

Mineralogical abundance of primary minerals versus secondary minerals, chemical mixing relationships, and elemental ratios have been used to assess the degree of aqueous alteration at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum. However, limited work has used Ti-normalized mass-balance analysis chemical data to quantify gains and losses of elements from altered materials as well as estimate the duration of aqueous alteration on Mars. The Ti-normalized mass-balance approach accounts for volumetric changes associated with geochemical alteration. If volumetric changes are not considered, observed geochemical trends based on un-normalized data have the potential to be misleading. Assessing gains and losses from altered materials can indicate the geochemistry of fluids involved in the alteration. Furthermore, elemental losses can be combined with dissolution rates to estimate the duration of chemical weathering. Knowledge of the duration of aqueous alteration will provide insight into the climate history of Mars as well as indicate the potential for microbial habitability. The Wishstone-Watchtower materials in Gusev Crater are suitable candidates for Ti-normalized mass-balance analysis because mixing relationships of these two materials indicate that Watchtower materials may be derived from Wishstone-like materials. The objectives of this work are to (1) employ Ti-normalized mass-balance to assess gains and losses from the Wishstone-Watchtower sequence and (2) to combine losses with laboratory dissolution rates to estimate alteration times of the Watchtower material.

Sutter, Brad↗
DOE OSTI2023

Forecasting Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance for Puerto Rico Using the WRF Model and NSRDB

Accurately predicting solar energy resources is a major challenge in integrating photovoltaics generation on the electric grid. Numerical weather prediction has been recognized by the solar energy community as a major approach to provide solar resource forecasts at various locations and for a variety of timescales. In this study, as a part of the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100), we develop day-head solar irradiance forecast data using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 3 km and hourly/5-minute. The global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts simulated from the WRF model are postprocessed by a simple optimization method using satellite-derived gridded observations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to reduce error and bias of the solar irradiance forecasts covering 2018-2020. The NSRDB contributes to improving the GHI and DNI forecasts and also offers the opportunity for an in-depth analysis to evaluate their accuracy over a wide range of Puerto Rico regions. Preliminary results show overall improvements of GHI forecasts up to 37% (DNI: 15%) for mean absolute error and 97% (DNI: 76%) for mean bias error by applying a postprocessing technique to WRF model output.

data models↗
NASA NTRS1993

Development of a climatological data base to help forecast cloud cover conditions for shuttle landings at the Kennedy Space Center

The Space Shuttle is an extremely weather sensitive vehicle with very restrictive constraints for both launches and landings. The most important difference between Shuttle and normal aircraft landings is that the Shuttle has no go-around capability once it begins its decent into the earth's atmosphere. The de-orbit burn decision is generally made approximately 90 minutes before landing requiring a forecast with little room for error. Because of the Shuttle's rapid re-entry to earth, the pilot must be able to see all runway and visual navigation aids from high altitude to land the Shuttle. In addition, the heat resistant tiles which are used to protect the Shuttle during its re-entry into the earth's atmosphere are extremely sensitive to any type of precipitation. Extensive damage to these tiles could occur if the Shuttle passes through any cloud that contains precipitation size particles. To help guard against changing weather conditions or any type of weather problems that might occur prior to landing, flight rules have been developed as guidelines for all landings. Although the rules vary depending on the location of the landing (Kennedy Space Center or Edwards AFB), length of mission, and weight of vehicle, most of the rules can be condensed into 4 major groupings. These are: (1) Cloud ceilings should not be less than 3048 m (10,000 feet), (2) Visibility should not be less than 13 km (7 nm), (3) Cross-wind no greater than 5-8 m/s (10-15 knots); and (4) No showers or thunderstorms at or within 56 km (30 nm) of the Shuttle Landing Facility. This study consisted of developing a climatological database of the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) surface observations and performing an analysis of observed conditions one and two hours subsequent to given conditions at the SLF to help analyze the 0.2 cloud cover rule. Particular emphasis was placed on Shuttle landing weather violations and the amounts of cloud cover below 3048 m (10,000 ft.). This analysis has helped to determine the best and worst times to land the Shuttle at KSC. In addition, nomograms have been developed to help forecasters make cloud cover forecasts for End of Mission (EOM) and Return to Launch Site (RTLS) at KSC. Results of categorizing this data by month, season, time of day, and surface and upper-air wind direction are presented.

Atchison, M. Kevin↗
NASA NTRS2007

X-31 Mishap: Lessons Learned

The experimental X-31 High Angle of Attack Research Aircraft crashed during a 1995 test mission flight conducted by NASA at Edwards Air Force Base, California. The pilot lost control of the airplane and was forced to eject, sustaining a permanent back injury that ended his flying career. Prior to this incident the airplane had a perfect record of several hundred non-eventful flights supported by an experienced team. During the subsequent investigation by a mishap committee it was discovered that a series of cascading events contributed to this accident. Some of the identified contributing factors that resulted in this mishap are common to aircraft design and to flight-test in general. The mistakes and the solutions are presented here so that the flight-test community may consider and learn from them. The primary cause of the crash was icing and, ultimately, a complete blockage of the pitot-static nose probe. The icing was caused by a freak weather phenomenon that was neither expected nor known to exist on the day of the mishap. The normal probe had been replaced with a special Kiel probe to allow total pressure measurements of up to 70 degrees angle of attack for flight-test purposes. The Kiel probe did not include a heater, because it was assumed that the airplane would not be flown in the clouds or in conditions conducive to icing. This assumption was later proven to be incorrect. The iced Kiel probe caused incorrect gain scheduling in the flight control system, resulting in an unstable aircraft. This failure was essentially undetected because of a faulty design in the flight control system architecture. There were, however, also a number of other issues that lead up to this situation that never should have happened. This presentation discusses what the issues were that contributed to the incident. After the incident was investigated, some of these issues were addressed and some changes were made. The second X-31 aircraft flew the remainder of the flight tests, and the program was successfully completed without incident. This presentation also shows a video of the mishap including lessons learned, and the changes that were made to resume the flight-test program are presented.

Larson, Richard R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Argentina Food Security & Agriculture: Crop Monitoring and Forecasting for Argentina using NASA Satellite Observations

Early harvest information helps guide agricultural commodity assessments in Argentina, providing valuable planning information to identify potentially food-insecure regions, anticipate transportation and storage demands, predict price fluctuations, and project commodity trends. However, crop yield estimates are currently subjective, based on interviews with qualified informants (i.e., farmers, agribusiness actors). In partnership with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, we leveraged Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) NASA Earth observations to develop a Google Earth Engine (GEE) toolset to monitor vegetation growth. The first component of the toolset produces spatial and temporal maps of temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), allowing users to visualize the influence of the region’s climate and weather. Next, we developed an autoregressive model to predict NDVI several months in advance. Lastly, we created a linear regression model of crop yield and NDVI for soybeans, corn, and wheat, and input the forecasted NDVI to generate a predicted crop yield output. The NDVI forecasting model produced accurate predictions at two, four, and six months when examining the most recent growing season. In the crop yield model, soybeans exhibited moderately strong correlation, wheat had consistent weak correlation, and corn varied from weak to strong correlation depending on zone. This information is vital for vegetation growth monitoring by identifying areas of high growth and allocating resources to areas of lower growth to efficiently maximize crop yields.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗