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At least 91 records · Page 5

Weapon Systems Risk-Assessment Tool Review

To anticipate, and potentially mitigate, future problems in aging weapon systems, four unique riskassessment techniques were analyzed, including root-cause analysis tools, six-sigma problemsolving approaches, and lean six-sigma tools. Identifying the most efficient process, or tool, is crucial for successful application to current and future weapon systems, subsystems, and components. The following processes were reviewed: Fault Tree Analysis, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, Bow-Tie Analysis, and Hazard and Operability Study. A systematic assessment was performed to determine the most desirable method, and included investigating qualitative versus quantitative characteristics, scope, process durations, advantages, and limitations. Presented results will outline the study findings and further illustrate a capacity to identify future issues and/or concerns, and ultimately, reduce risk.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Security Self-Assessment Toolkit for Nuclear Materials Facilities: Focus on Insider Threat Mitigation

Theft or sabotage of weapons-usable nuclear materials is a global concern. To minimize this threat, establishing and maintaining an effective nuclear security regime is required to protect against criminal or other negligent acts. Use of a formalized insider threat mitigation program is one such security measure. Individuals who have or held authorized access to an organization's critical assets, such as nuclear materials, are considered "insiders." Insider threats, or insider adversaries, are motivated individuals who possess access, authority, and knowledge to conduct a malicious act or facilitate that of an external party. To thwart insider threats (both intentional and unintentional), organizations can formalize an enterprise-wide approach to identify and mitigate the unique risks presented by insiders. This report provides an approach to evaluate an insider threat mitigation program at facilities with nuclear materials. Formal program evaluations serve many purposes and can be designed using several different methods and techniques. This report presents a self-assessment approach to program evaluation whereby an organization can assess its strengths, identify key gaps, and set priorities for ongoing improvement efforts to mitigate insider threats. Results of the self-assessment can provide critical information to contribute to the continuous improvement of an organization’s insider threat mitigation program within eight specific domain areas.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Non-nuclear Component Signatures for Warhead Dismantlement Confirmation

The verification of warhead dismantlement is expected to be an important component in future arms reduction treaties. Historic approaches developed with future arms control treaty verification in mind often involve intrusive measurements, process monitoring, and/or inspector presence to provide confidence that an authentic warhead has been dismantled. This work explores the possibility of reducing the negative impacts of these invasive approaches while also delivering a method that is more likely to provide non-sensitive data that can be shared with not only other nuclear weapons states but also non-nuclear weapons states partners. This work explores a novel approach for verifying dispositioned non-nuclear weapon components, providing confidence post-dismantlement that a treaty accountable item that was dismantled was in fact a treaty-relevant nuclear weapon system as declared. This method provides an alternative to intrusive inspection processes in nuclear weapons production environments, which would require significant changes to the host’s operational behaviors. It achieves this by identifying intrinsic neutron-induced signatures of non-nuclear components to determine their authenticity and estimate the duration they were exposed within a nuclear weapons system using technologies that are already in use for other national security applications. Intrinsic radiation effects studies are already a part of the stockpile aging and surveillance evaluations. However, none of these technologies and approaches have been previously considered for verification applications of non-nuclear component disposition. In this report, we introduce modeling studies that have been used to identify the most promising candidate parts and materials with signatures that are measurable and actionable. These models have been validated with laboratory measurements of signatures induced by the exposure of candidate materials to neutrons over a range of times. Predictive modeling then demonstrates the methodology for estimating exposure times and/or limits. Laboratory measurements of authentic non-nuclear parts from a dismantled warhead demonstrate the feasibility of employing these signature measurements. And finally, a concept of operations (CONOPS) for the potential use of this methodology is presented.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Radiocarbon dating of open systems with bomb effect

The application of radiocarbon dating is extended to include systems that are slowly exchanging carbon with the atmosphere. Simple formulae are derived that relate the true age and the exchange rate of carbon to the apparent radiocarbon age. A radiocarbon age determination does not give a unique true age and exchange rate but determines a locus of values bounded by a minimum age and a minimum exchange rate. It is found that for radiocarbon ages as large as 10,000 years it is necessary to correct for the anthropogenic radiocarbon produced in the atmosphere by nuclear weapons testing. A one-term exponential approximation, with an e-folding time of 14.43 years, is used to model this effect and is shown to be accurate to within 3 percent for exchange time constants of 100 years and greater. The approach developed here is not specific to radiocarbon and can be applied to other radioisotopes in open systems.

Mckay, C. P.↗

U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory's Need for Flow Physics and Control With Applications Involving Aero-Optics and Weapon Bay Cavities

To develop New Flow Control Techniques: a) Knowledge of the Flow Physics with and without control. b) How does Flow Control Effect Flow Physics (What Works to Optimize the Design?). c) Energy or Work Efficiency of the Control Technique (Cost - Risk - Benefit Analysis). d) Supportability, e.g. (size of equipment, computational power, power supply) (Allows Designer to include Flow Control in Plans).

Schmit, Ryan↗

The future of the NPT: REVCON and beyond

The Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), with its quinquennial review conferences (RevCons), has become the foundation of the international nonproliferation regime over the course of its 50-year history. With more states parties than any other arms control agreement (currently 191), the Treaty provides a legally binding framework for all states parties, constraining proliferation of nuclear weapons and committing the five recognized states who possess nuclear weapons to work toward disarmament. The NPT has enjoyed wide success in constraining the spread of nuclear weapons. Only one state party has left the agreement and gone on to acquire these weapons, and the overall track record of compliance with IAEA safeguards has been robust. However, for all its effectiveness in the area of nonproliferation, its achievements on the disarmament front have been relatively unimpressive. While the NWS – most notably the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia – have decreased the overall size of their nuclear arsenals significantly since 1970, these arsenals have remained an important feature of NWS security policies. The limited progress towards disarmament has created friction between the NNWS and NWS and has been the source of mounting tension within the NPT regime. The 2020 RevCon, the 50th anniversary of the NPT and 25th anniversary of its indefinite extension, faces a range of contentious challenges, old and new, which call into question the Treaty’s future viability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Investigation of "6X" Scramjet Inlet Configurations

This work represents an initial attempt to determine what, if any, issues arise from scaling demonstration supersonic combustion scramjets to a flight scale making the engine a viable candidate for both military weapon and civilian access to space applications. The original vehicle sizes tested and flown to date, were designed to prove a concept. With the proven designs, use of the technology for applications as weapon systems or space flight are only possible at six to ten times the original scale. To determine effects of scaling, computations were performed with hypersonic inlets designed to operate a nominal Mach 4 and Mach 5 conditions that are possible within the eight foot high temperature tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center. The total pressure recovery for these inlets is about 70%, while maintaining self start conditions, and providing operable inflow to combustors. Based on this study, the primary scaling effect detected is the strength of a vortex created along the cowl edge causing adverse boundary layer growth in the inlet.

Alter, Stephen J.↗

Power availability at terrestrial receptor sites for laser-power transmission from the satellite power system

A statistical model was developed for relating the temporal transmission parameters of a laser beam from a solar power satellite to observable meteorological data to determine the influence of weather on power reception at the earth-based receiver. Sites within 100 miles of existing high voltage transmission lines were examined and the model was developed for clear-sky and clouded conditions. The cases of total transmission through clouds at certain wavelengths, no transmission, and partial transmission were calculated for the cloud portion of the model. The study covered cirriform, stratiform, cumiliform, and mixed type clouds and the possibility of boring holes through the clouds with the beam. Utilization of weapons-quality beams for hole boring, was found to yield power availability increases of 9-33%, although no beneficial effects could be predicted in regions of persistent cloud cover. An efficiency of 80% was determined as possible if several receptor sites were available within 200-300 miles of each other, thereby allowing changes of reception point in cases of unacceptable meteorological conditions.

Beverly, R. E., III↗

Performance assessment in complex individual and team tasks

Described here is an eclectic, performance based approach to assessing cognitive performance from multiple perspectives. The experience gained from assessing the effects of antihistamines and scenario difficulty on C (exp 2) decision making performance in Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) weapons director (WD) teams can serve as a model for realistic simulations in space operations. Emphasis is placed on the flexibility of measurement, hierarchical organization of measurement levels, data collection from multiple perspectives, and the difficulty of managing large amounts of data.

Eddy, Douglas R.↗

Weapons to widgets: Organic systems and public policy for tech transfer

Large cuts in defense spending cause serious repercussions throughout the American economy. One means to counter the negative effects of defense reductions is to redirect federal dollars to temporarily prop up defense industries and, over the longer-term, stimulate growth of new nondefense industries. The creation of non-defense products and industries by channeling ideas from public laboratories into the private sector manufacturing facilities, known as technology transfer, is being undertaken in a massive program that has high visibility, large amounts of money, and broad federal agency involvement. How effectively federal money can be directed toward stimulating the creation of non-defense products will define the strength of the economy, (i.e., tax base, employment level, trade balance, capital investments, etc.), over the next decade. Key functions of the tech transfer process are technology and market assessment, capital formation, manufacturing feasibility, sales and distribution, and business organization creation. Those, however, are not functions typically associated with the federal government. Is the government prepared to provide leadership in those areas? This paper suggests organic systems theory as a means to structure the public sector's actions to provide leadership in functional areas normally outside their scope of expertise. By applying new ideas in organization theory, can we design government action to efficiently and effectively transfer technologies?

Cargo, Russell A.↗

Operational and Mission Highlights: A Monthly Summary of Top Achievements October 2022

On Sept. 26, Director Thom Mason signed the Laboratory’s annual assessment of four of the weapons systems in our nation’s nuclear stockpile: the B61 family of bombs and the W76, the W78 and the W88 warheads. Addressed to the secretary of energy, the secretary of defense and the chair of the Nuclear Weapons Council, this letter informs the president of the United States of our confidence that the stockpile remains safe, secure, and effective now and into the future as a result of our dedicated sustainment and modernization efforts.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Mil-Std-464C and Mil-Std-464D Electromagnetic Radiation Environment Evaluation

Many systems derive their electromagnetic radiation (EMR) environments from Mil-Std-464C or Mil-Std-464D, Electromagnetic Environmental Effects Requirements for Systems. This standard defines several EMR environments based on the type of system and expected application. Many nuclear weapon (NW) systems reference the ordnance environments as the starting point for their functional EMR requirements, since any item intended to go into Department of Defense (DOD) custody is expected to be certified hazards of electromagnetic radiation to ordnance (HERO) safe when exposed to the environments listed in Mil-Std-464 Table 9. This environment is defined as the envelope of all sources any system in DOD custody may ever encounter, however, and may include sources that are not relevant for a particular system. This document is intended to provide additional clarity on the Mil-Std-464C and Mil-Std-464D EMR environments, specifically the driving sources for the maximum ordnance levels. This supplementary information may be used to guide tailoring of relevant environments or application to different systems with the additional consideration of any shielding that may reduce the external environments defined in the military standard.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Rocket Sled Propelled Testing of a Supersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator

Decelerators (IADs) have traditionally been tested in wind tunnels. As the limitations of these test facilities are reached, other avenues must be pursued. The IAD being tested is a Supersonic IAD (SIAD), which attaches just aft of the heatshield around the perimeter of an entry body. This 'attached torus' SIAD is meant to improve the accuracy of landing for robotic class missions to Mars and allow for potentially increased payloads. The SIAD Design Verification (SDV) test aims to qualify the SIAD by applying a targeted aerodynamic load to the vehicle. While many test architectures were researched, a rocket sled track was ultimately chosen to be the most cost effective way to achieve the desired dynamic pressures. The Supersonic Naval Ordnance Research Track (SNORT) at the Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division (NAWCWD) China Lake is a four mile test track, traditionally used for warhead and ejection seat testing. Prior to SDV, inflatable drag bodies have been tested on this particular track. Teams at Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and NAWCWD collaborate together to design and fabricate one of the largest sleds ever built. The SDV sled is comprised of three individual sleds: a Pusher Sled which holds the solid booster rockets, an Item Sled which supports the test vehicle, and a Camera Sled that is pushed in front for in-situ footage and measurements. The JPL-designed Test Vehicle has a full-scale heatshield shape and contains all instrumentation and inflation systems necessary to inflate and test a SIAD. The first campaign that is run at SNORT tested all hardware and instrumentation before the SIAD was ready to be tested. For each of the three tests in this campaign, the number of rockets and top speed was increased and the data analyzed to ensure the hardware is safe at the necessary accelerations and aerodynamic loads.

Supersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (SI↗

Methodology and Application of Physical Security Effectiveness Based on Dynamic Force-on-Force Modeling

This report describes the research and development being performed at INL towards a dynamic modeling and simulation framework to enable physical security optimization at commercial nuclear power plants. The framework is based on the dynamic modeling tool EMRALD and is demonstrated for applications that can result in physical security optimization. Two main applications are presented: 1. Integrating FLEX portable equipment performance with FOF models of a plant’s physical security posture, and 2. Location optimization of bullet resistant enclosure. The generic framework for modeling FLEX portable equipment is described in detail, followed by a case study modeling an adversarial attack aimed at causing a radiological release by sabotaging the plant’s power supply and its ultimate heat sink capabilities at a hypothetical PWR. Two distinct FLEX deployment strategies, series and parallel, are modeled with distinct timelines. The results of the adversarial attack modeled in a commercial FOF tool, AVERT, are integrated with the FLEX deployment model in EMRALD. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the distribution of the timeline in FLEX deployment strategies. Thermal-hydraulic analysis of FLEX performance is performed in RELAP5 and integrated with the EMRALD simulations to provide more realistic timelines in the models. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, deployment of FLEX equipment can result in a significantly high likelihood of preventing radiological release. The modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the NPPs to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security. The objective of location optimization of BRE is to determine the best location in the plant for a new BRE being planned by the plant to enhance their physical security effectiveness. The plant physical security FOF model is integrated with EMRALD that performs Monte Carlo simulation to run different attack scenarios and a discrete set of potential BRE locations. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the most effective location for the BRE. The optimization approach can be extended to wide applications such as location optimization of remotely operated weapons and other strategic fixed assets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimation of weapon-radius versus maneuverability trade-off for air-to-air combat

A chase in a horizontal plane between a pursuer with a large capture radius and a more maneuverable evading vehicle is examined with constant-speed vehicle models. An approximation to the 'sidestepping' maneuver of the Homicidal Chauffeur Game is modified to account for the effect of evader turning rate, and an estimate of capture radius required is so obtained which agrees remarkably well with Cockayne's point-capture result. The maneuver assumes central importance for barrier surfaces appearing in the Game of Two Cars. Results are given for required weapon capture-radius in terms of the maneuverability of the two vehicles. Some calculations of capture radius are presented.

Kelley, H. J.↗

Hardtack II

Armed and ready to fire, Adams remained suspended under a balloon high over the Nevada Test Site throughout the day and night of October 31, 1958. Shortly after midnight, Adams was lowered to the ground and disarmed. With that, Operation Hardtack II ended and a test moratorium, primarily a gentlemen’s agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union, took effect. As the possibility of a moratorium became more and more likely in late 1957, the Atomic Energy Commission and its two weapon laboratories sought Presidential approval for an unprecedented number of tests for the coming year, including a proposal by the UCRL for a series of underground and safety tests in an operation called Millrace. Not wanting to jeopardize ongoing international disarmament talks as well as the moratorium, itself, Eisenhower resisted giving approval for Millrace until late August 1958, barely two months before the anticipated start of the moratorium. Millrace, quickly renamed Hardtack II, was expanded to thirty-seven tests beginning with Otero on September 12 th and concluding with Titania on October 30 th . Eighteen devices, including Otero and Titania, were safety tests. Three of these tests explored “safety characteristics for underground detonations” in tunnels. Two of the three such tests vented. In this respect, Hardtack II was a harbinger of the future in that the problem of venting was never fully resolved. Other safety tests, designed to give no yield, were more successful with San Juan, Oberon, and Ganymede having “no measurable yield.”

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Ligand-Assisted Separation of Rare Earth Elements via Capillary Electrophoresis

Rare earth elements (REEs) are a class of critical materials vital in applications such as EVs, batteries, and defense weapons systems. These elements are found primarily in ores, and due to their similar chemical behavior, the challenge remains to find an effective means of separation. The addition of ligands of varying charge, size, denticity, etc. can help to increase separation, yet the mechanistic behavior and factors influencing separation are still poorly understood. Here, iminodiacetic acid (IDA) is used to exploit and maximize differences in electrophoretic mobilities between adjacent REEs. Mobilities and diffusion coefficients of REEs in aqueous media are measured via CE and are compared to MD and FEM simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Carbamoylation as an Effective Tool in the Analysis of the Soman Nerve Agent Marker Pinacolyl Alcohol in Soil Matrices by EI-GC-MS and LC-HRMS

Pinacolyl alcohol (PA) is a Schedule 2 chemical commonly featured in most proficiency tests (PTs) administered by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) due to its direct as well as forensic link to the nerve agent Soman. Therefore, its detection by Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) inspection teams during on-site investigations is a strong indicator of the past or latent presence of Soman in the environment. Its small molecular weight (102), early elution time, and poor ionization profile make PA a challenging analyte to detect particularly at low concentrations (∼1–10 μg/g). In this work, 1,1′-carbonyldimidazole (CDI) has been used to effectively modify PA for the first time in two different soil matrices (Virginia type A soil and silt sediment) at two separate concentrations (1 and 10 μg/g) for its subsequent detection by EI-GC-MS and LC-HRMS methods. For the EI-GC-MS analysis, the PA carbamate derivative (PIC) exhibits improved chromatography relative to PA such as improved peak shape, increased molecular weight (196 for PIC and 102 for PA) and increased retention time (16.9 min for PIC and ∼4.1 min for PA). In addition, the derivatization also improves the detection of PA by LC-HRMS as the PIC product possesses protonation sites (i.e., imidazole ring) relative to none exhibited by PA. More importantly, the carbamoylation proceeds under mild conditions (55 °C, no base) and rapidly (3 h), characteristics that make it an appealing protocol for the analysis of PA during OPCW PTs or real case scenarios particularly in instances where it is present at low concentrations. It is anticipated that the protocol can be applied to the forensic analysis of this important Soman marker in various environmental matrices.

Chemistry↗