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At least 91 records · Page 5

Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation

Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades, the significant positive trend of AO over the last 60 years has not yet been thoroughly discussed. By analyzing reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) datasets with novel pacemaker experiments, we found that sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean is conducive to the positive trend of AO from the late 1950s. The momentum flux convergence by stationary waves due to the Indian Ocean warming plays an important role in the positive trend of AO, which is characterized by a poleward shift of zonal-mean zonal winds. In addition, the reduced upward propagating wave activity flux over the North Pacific due to Indian Ocean warming also plays a role to strengthen the polar vortex, subsequently, it contributes to the positive trend of AO. Our results imply that the respective warming trend of tropical ocean basins including Indian Ocean, which is either anthropogenic forcing or natural variability or their combined effect, should be considered to correctly project the future AO’s trend.

Indian Ocean↗

Ocean dynamics in the Nordic Seas using satellite altimetry

The main objective of this TOPEX/POSEIDON project is to integrate the accurately measured sea surface topography, as resolved by both TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimeters, into the above-mentioned quantitative studies of the short- and long-term variations in the mesoscale ocean dynamics of the Nordic Seas south of 66 deg N. This implies: (1) comparison and validation of the capability to resolve the general basin-scale circulation and the mesoscale variability by, respectively, radar altimeters and numerical ocean circulation models; (2) calibration and validation of the altimeter-derived sea surface topography against in situ measurements from research vessels and moorings, particularly under extreme wind and wave conditions; and (3) improved monitoring and understanding of the flux variations between the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas, both on the short and seasonal time scales.

Pettersson, Lasse H.↗

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗

Atmospheric weather regimes over tropical South America

Infrared radiance measurements by the GOES-6 satellite during April 1986 through April 1987 were used to characterize and identify distinct regimes of persistent large-scale cloudiness patterns over the Amazon Basin. It is suggested that the energetics of the tropical troposphere over the Amazon Basin can be directly related to the GOES large-scale cloudiness patterns. The geometry and persistence of the cloud patterns are influenced by shifts in general circulation features and are likely modulated by 4- to 5-day and 40- to 60-day waves. Diurnal forcing effects are more pronounced during weather regimes characterized by prominently clear skies over land areas.

Connors, Vickie S.↗

An Assessment of the Potential Predictability of Drought Over the United States Based on Climate Model Simulations with Specified SST

The USCLIV AR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. The runs were done with several global atmospheric models including NASA/NSIPP-l, NCEP/GFS, GFDLlAM2, and NCAR CCM3 and CAM3.5. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next. To what extent can droughts develop independently of ocean variability due to year-to-year memory that may be inherent to the land. What is the role of the different ocean basins? Here we focus on the potential predictability of drought conditions over the United States. Specific issues addressed include the seasonality and regionality of the signal-to-noise ratios associated with Pacific and Atlantic SST forcing, and the sensitivity of the results to the climatological stationary waves simulated by the different AGCMs.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

The Large Impact Process Inferred from the Geology of Lunar Multiring Basins

The study of the geology of multiring impact basins on the Moon over the past ten years has given us a rudimentary understanding of how these large structures have formed and evolved on the Moon and other bodies. Two-ring basins on the Moon begin to form at diameters of about 300 km; the transition diameter at which more than two rings appear is uncertain, but it appears to be between 400 and 500 km in diameter. Inner rings tend to be made up of clusters or aligned segments of massifs and are arranged into a crudely concentric pattern; scarp-like elements may or may not be present. Outer rings are much more scarp-like and massifs are rare to absent. Basins display textured deposits, interpreted as ejecta, extending roughly an apparent basin radius exterior to the main topographic rim. Ejecta may have various morphologies, ranging from wormy and hummocky deposits to knobby surfaces; the causes of these variations are not known, but may be related to the energy regime in which the ejecta are deposited. Outside the limits of the textured ejecta are found both fields of satellitic craters (secondaries) and light plains deposits. Impact melt sheets are observed on the floors of relatively unflooded basins. Samples of impact melts from lunar basins have basaltic major-element chemistry, characterized by K, rare-earth elements (REE), P, and other trace elements of varying concentration (KREEP); ages are between 3.8 and 3.9 Ga. These lithologies cannot be produced through the fusion of known pristine (plutonic) rock types, suggesting the occurrence of unknown lithologies within the Moon. These melts were probably generated at middle to lower crustal levels. Ejecta compositions, preservation of pre-basin topography, and deposit morphologies all indicate that the excavation cavity of multiring basins is between about 0.4 and 0.6 times the diameter of the apparent crater diameter. Basin depths of excavation can be inferred from the composition of basin ejecta. A variety of mechanisms has been proposed to account for the formation of basin rings but none of them are entirely plausible. Mechanisms can be divided into two broad groups: (1) forcible uplift due to fluidization of the target; (2) concentric, brittle, fracturing and failure of the target, on regional (megaterraces) to global scales (lithospheric fracturing). Most basin rings are spaced at a constant factor on all planets. Evidence supports divergent ringforming models, so it may be that the ring-locating mechanism differs from the ring-forming mechanism. Thus, large-scale crustal foundering (megaterracing) could occur along concentric zones of weakness created by some type of resonant wave mechanism (fluidization and uplift); such immediate crustal adjustment could then be followed by long-term adjustment of the fractured lithosphere.

Spudis, Paul D.↗

Coupled Model Simulation of Snowfall Events Over the Black Hills

Although many long-term simulations of snow accumulation and oblation have been made using stand-alone land surface models and surface models coupled with GCMs, less research has focused on short-term event simulations. Actually, accurate event simulations of snow-related processes are the basis for successful long-term simulation. Three advantages of event simulations of snowfall and snow melting are availability of: (1) intensive observation data from field experiments for validation; (2) more physically-realistic precipitation schemes for use in atmospheric models to simulate snowfall; and (3) a more detailed analysis of the snow melting processes. In addition to the complexities of snow related processes themselves, terrain-induced effects on snowfall/snow melting make simulations of snow events more difficult. Climatological observations indicate that terrain features such as the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming can exert important effects on snow accumulation and snow oblation processes. One of the primary effects is that the orography causes forced uplift of airflow and causes atmospheric waves to form both upwind and downwind of it. Airflow often splits around the obstacle, converging on the lee side. This convergence may lead to precipitation enhancement. It also provides an elevated heat and moisture source that enhances atmospheric instability. During the period of April 5-May 5, 1999, the Upper Missouri River Basin Pilot Project (UMRBPP) made intensive observations on precipitation events occurring in the Black Hills. Two moderate snowfall events were captured during the period. The resulting high temporal and spatial resolution data provides opportunities to investigate terrain effects on snowfall amount, distribution, and melting. Successful simulation of snowfall amount, distribution, and evolution using atmospheric models is important to subsequent modeling of snow melting using snow sub-models in land surface schemes. In this paper, a coupled model system, consisting of an atmosphere model (ARPS) and a land-surface model (revised NCAR LSM), is used to simulate one of these UMRBPP cases.

Wang, Jianzhong↗

Annual sea level variations in the southern tropical Indian Ocean from Geosat and shallow-water simulations

Sea level variations in the Indian Ocean north of 20 deg S are analyzed from Geosat satellite altimeter data in 1987-1988. These observed variations are compared with numerical simulations from a reduced-gravity model forced by observed winds over the same period. The first complex empirical orthogonal function of observed and simulated variations is an annual signal. For this signal, observations and simulations are highly correlated in both time and space. Off-equatorial sea level variations propagate westward and poleward as Rossby waves. The strongest annual variations occur in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean. The maximum amplitude (about 12 cm) is located at about 90 deg E, 12 deg S, although the wind stress curl is weak there and east of it. The signal propagates from the eastern boundary to the southwest across almost all the basin.

Perigaud, Claire↗

Investigations and Tests in the Towing Basin at Guidonia

The experimental methods at the Guidonia towing basin are discussed including specifications. Some of the components examined are the bridge towing carriage, side towing carriage, catapult installation, and dynamometer systems. Tests were performed on hulls and floats, as well as motor boats and torpedo shaped bodies. Theoretical investigations were also performed to determine pressure distributions on geometrically simple bodies, propagation of small wave motions, and planing and submerged surfaces.

Cremona, C↗

Polar Motion Constraints on Models of the Fortnightly Tide

Estimates of the near-fortnightly Mf ocean tide from Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry and from numerical solutions to the shallow water equations agree reasonably well, at least in their basin-scale features. For example, both show that the Pacific Ocean tide lags the Atlantic tide by roughly 30 degrees. There are hints of finer scale agreements in the elevation fields, but noise levels are high. In contrast, estimates of Mf currents are only weakly constrained by the TP data, because high-wavenumber Rossby waves (with intense currents) are associated with relatively small perturbations in surface elevation. As a result, a wide range of Mf current fields are consistent with both the TP data and the hydrodynamic equations within a priori plausible misfit bounds. We find that a useful constraint on the Mf currents is provided by independent estimates of the Earth's polar motion. At the Mf period polar motion shows a weak signal (both prograde and retrograde) which must be almost entirely caused by the ocean tide. We have estimated this signal from the SPACE2000 time series, after applying a broad-band correction for atmospheric angular momentum. Although the polar motion estimates have relatively large uncertainties, they are sufficiently precise to fix optimum data weights in a global ocean inverse model of Mf. These weights control the tradeoff between fitting a prior hydrodynamic model of Mf and fitting the relatively noisy T/P measurements of Mf. The predicted polar motion from the final inverse model agrees remarkably well with the Mf polar motion observations. The preferred model is also consistent with noise levels suggested by island gauges, and it is marginally consistent with differences observed by subsetting the altimetry (to the small extent that this is possible). In turn, this new model of the Mf ocean tide allows the ocean component to be removed from Mf estimates of length of day, thus yielding estimates of complex Love numbers less contaminated by oceanic effects than has hitherto been possible.

Ray, Richard D.↗

Eddy and wave dynamics in the South Atlantic as diagnosed from Geosat altimeter data

The characteristics of the sea surface height variability in the South Atlantic are investigated on the basis of almost 3 yr of Geosat data. The nature of the sea surface height field is shown to be nonstationary, heterogeneous, and anisotropic. The wavenumber spectral characteristics of the sea surface height field, such as spectral slopes, shape, breaks in spectral slopes, and energy density values, vary with latitude and longitude within the basin. The spectral slopes exhibit a spectral dependence approaching k exp -5 in the high-energy areas and k exp -3 in the low-energy areas. Along-track characteristic wavelengths are found to decrease from north to south and from west to east. The energy exhibits maximum values in the highly energetic eddy-shedding regions of the Malvinas-Brazil confluence and the Agulhas leakage region.

Forbes, Cristina↗

Low-frequency synoptic-eddy activity in the Pacific storm track

The GCM presently used to examine the nature of LF variations in synoptic-eddy activity over the North Pacific, when compared with observations, yields realistic time-mean and LF synoptic-eddy forcing of the 200-mb zonal wind. In the time mean, this forcing exhibits an east-west dipole structure that is consistent with the general view of the life cycle of baroclinic waves; these show marked upward and eastward propagation in the western and central Pacific, as well as meridional propagation to the east. Composites of the hemispheric distribution of synoptic-eddy forcing in the GCM, based on the extremes of the dominant Pacific empirical orthogonal function, show a seesaw behavior with enhanced eddy forcing in the North Pacific basin which is associated with suppressed forcing in the North Atlantic basin (and vice versa).

Higgins, R. W.↗

Flood Inundation Mapping in the Logone Floodplain from Multi Temporal Landsat ETM+Imagery

Yearly flooding in the Logone floodplain makes an impact on agricultural, pastoral, and fishery systems in the Lake Chad Basin. Since the flooding extent and depth are highly variable, flood inundation mapping helps us make better use of water resources and prevent flood hazards in the Logone floodplain. The flood maps are generated from 33 multi temporal Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) during three years 2006 to 2008. Flooded area is classified using a short-wave infrared band whereas open water is classified by Iterative Self-organizing Data Analysis (ISODATA) clustering. The maximum flooding extent in the study area increases up to approximately 5.8K km2 in late October 2008. The study also provides strong correlation of the flooding extents with water height variations in both the floodplain and the river based on a second polynomial regression model. The water heights are from ENIVSAT altimetry in the floodplain and gauge measurements in the river. Coefficients of determination between flooding extents and water height variations are greater than 0.91 with 4 to 36 days in phase lag. Floodwater drains back to the river and to the northeast during the recession period in December and January. The study supports understanding of the Logone floodplain dynamics in detail of spatial pattern and size of the flooding extent and assists the flood monitoring and prediction systems in the catchment.

Jung, Hahn Chul↗

Modeling Antarctic Subglacial Lake Filling and Drainage Cycles

The growth and drainage of active subglacial lakes in Antarctica has previously been inferred from analysis of ice surface altimetry data. We use a subglacial hydrology model applied to a synthetic Antarctic ice stream to examine internal controls on the filling and drainage of subglacial lakes. Our model outputs suggest that the highly constricted subglacial environment of our idealized ice stream, combined with relatively high rates of water flow funneled from a large catchment, can combine to create a system exhibiting slow-moving pressure waves. Over a period of years, the accumulation of water in the ice stream onset region results in a buildup of pressure creating temporary channels, which then evacuate the excess water. This increased flux of water beneath the ice stream drives lake growth. As the water body builds up, it steepens the hydraulic gradient out of the overdeepened lake basin and allows greater flux. Eventually this flux is large enough to melt channels that cause the lake to drain. Lake drainage also depends on the internal hydrological development in the wider system and therefore does not directly correspond to a particular water volume or depth. This creates a highly temporally and spatially variable system, which is of interest for assessing the importance of subglacial lakes in ice stream hydrology and dynamics.

drainage↗

An introduction to wavelet analysis in oceanography and meteorology - With application to the dispersion of Yanai waves

Wavelet analysis is a relatively new technique that is an important addition to standard signal analysis methods. Unlike Fourier analysis that yields an average amplitude and phase for each harmonic in a dataset, the wavelet transform produces an instantaneous estimate or local value for the amplitude and phase of each harmonic. This allows detailed study of nonstationary spatial or time-dependent signal characteristics. The wavelet transform is discussed, examples are given, and some methods for preprocessing data for wavelet analysis are compared. By studying the dispersion of Yanai waves in a reduced gravity equatorial model, the usefulness of the transform is demonstrated. The group velocity is measured directly over a finite range of wavenumbers by examining the time evolution of the transform. The results agree well with linear theory at higher wavenumber but the measured group velocity is reduced at lower wavenumbers, possibly due to interaction with the basin boundaries.

Meyers, Steven D.↗

Tropical Tropospheric Ozone from SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional Ozonesondes) Network: A Project for Satellite Research, Process Studies, Education

The first climatological overview of total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone in the southern hemisphere tropical and subtropics is based on ozone sounding data from 10 sites comprising the Southern Hemisphere Additional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network. The period covered is 1998-2000. Observations were made over: Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. Campaign data were collected on a trans-Atlantic oceanographic cruise and during SAFARI-2000 in Zambia. The ozone data, with simultaneous temperature profiles to approx. 7 hPa and relative humidity to approx. 200 hPa, reside at: . SHADOZ ozone time-series and profiles give a perspective on tropical total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. Prominent features are highly variable tropospheric ozone and a zonal wave-one pattern in total (and tropospheric) column ozone. Total, stratospheric and tropospheric column ozone amounts peak between August and November and are lowest between March and May. Tropospheric ozone variability over the Indian and Pacific Ocean displays influences of the Indian Ocean Dipole and convective mixing. Pollution transport from Africa and South America is a seasonal feature. Tropospheric ozone seasonality over the Atlantic Basin shows effects of regional subsidence and recirculation as well as biomass burning. Dynamical and chemical influences appear to be of comparable magnitude though model studies are needed to quantify this.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Thermal analysis of wildfires and effects on global ecosystem cycling

Biomass combustion plays an important role in the earth's biogeochemical cycling. The monitoring of wildfires and their associated variables at global scales is feasible and can lead to predictions of the influence of combustion on biogeochemical cycling and tropospheric chemistry. Remote sensing data collected during the 1985 California wildfire season indicate that the information content of key thermal and infrared/thermal wave band channels centered at 11.5 microns, 3.8 microns, and 2.25 microns are invaluable for discriminating and calculating fire related variables. These variables include fire intensity, rate-of-spread, soil cooling recovery behind the fire front, and plume structure. Coinciding Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data provided information regarding temperature estimations and the movement of the smoke plume from one wildfire into the Los Angeles basin.

Ambrosia, Vincent G.↗

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Lau, K. M.↗