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Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

global hydrological models↗

Supply Chain Sustainability Analysis of Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels via Indirect Liquefaction, Ex Situ Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis, Hydrothermal Liquefaction, Combined Algal Processing, and Biochemical Conversion: Update of the 2020 State-of-Technology Cases

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) aims to develop and deploy technologies to transform renewable biomass resources into commercially viable, high-performance biofuels, bioproducts, and biopower through public and private partnerships (U.S. Department of Energy, 2016). BETO and its national laboratory teams conduct in-depth techno-economic assessments (TEA) of biomass feedstock supply and logistics and conversion technologies to produce biofuels. There are two general types of TEAs: A design case outlines a target case (future projection) for a particular biofuel pathway. It enables identification of data gaps and research and development needs and provides goals and benchmarks against which technology progress is assessed. A state of technology (SOT) analysis assesses progress within and across relevant technology areas based on actual results at current experimental scales relative to technical targets and cost goals from design cases, and includes technical, economic, and environmental criteria as available. In addition to developing a TEA for a pathway of interest, BETO also performs a supply chain sustainability analysis (SCSA). The SCSA takes the life-cycle analysis approach that BETO has been supporting for about 20 years. It enables BETO to identify energy consumption, environmental, and sustainability issues that may be associated with biofuel production. Approaches to mitigate these issues can then be developed. Additionally, the SCSA allows for comparison of energy and environmental impacts across biofuel pathways in BETO’s research and development portfolio. This technical report describes the SCSAs for the production of renewable hydrocarbon transportation fuels via a range of conversion technologies in the 2020 SOTs: (1) renewable high octane gasoline (HOG) via indirect liquefaction (IDL) of woody lignocellulosic biomass (note that the IDL pathway in this SCSA represents the syngas conversion design [Harris et al. 2021]); (2) renewable gasoline (RG) and diesel (RD) blendstocks via ex situ catalytic fast pyrolysis of woody lignocellulosic biomass [Abhijit et al. 2021]; (3) RD via hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of wet sludge from a wastewater treatment plant; (4) renewable hydrocarbon fuels via biochemical conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass (Davis et al. 2021; Lin et al. 2021); (5) renewable diesel via HTL of a blend of algae (Davis and Klein, 2021) and woody biomass (Hartley et al. 2020); and (6) renewable diesel via combined algae processing (CAP) (Wiatrowski and Davis, 2021). This technical report focuses on the environmental performance of these six biofuel production pathways in their 2020 SOT cases. The results of these renewable hydrocarbon fuel pathways in these SCSA analyses update those for the respective 2019 SOT cases (Cai et al. 2020). They also provide an opportunity to examine the impact of technology improvements in both biomass feedstock production and biofuel production that have been achieved in 2020 SOTs on the sustainability performance of these renewable transportation fuels. The SCSA results also reflect updates to Argonne National Laboratory’s Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET®) model, which was released in October 2020 (Wang et al. 2020). These GREET updates include the production of natural gas, electricity, and petroleum-based fuels that can influence biofuels’ supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) (CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) emissions, water consumption, and air pollutant emissions. GHG emissions, water consumption, and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions are the main sustainability metrics assessed in this analysis. In this analysis, we define water consumption as the amount of water withdrawn from a freshwater source that is not returned (or returnable) to a freshwater source at the same level of quality. Life-cycle fossil energy consumption and net energy balance, which is the life-cycle fossil energy consumption deducted from the renewable biofuel energy produced, are also assessed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Mechanical Response and Processability of Wet-Laid Recycled Carbon Fiber PE, PA66 and PET Thermoplastic Composites

The interest in recycled carbon fiber (rCF) is growing rapidly and the supply chain for these materials is gradually being established. However, the processing routes, material intermediates and properties of rCF composites are less understood for designers to adopt them into practice. This paper provides a practical pathway for rCFs in conjunction with low cost and, for the most part, commodity thermoplastic resins, namely polyethylene (PE), polyamide 66 (PA66) and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). Industrially relevant wet-laid (WL) process routes have been adopted to produce mats using two variants of WL mats, namely (a) high speed wet-laid inclined wire to produce broad good ‘roll’ forms and (b) 3DEPTM process patented by Materials Innovation Technologies (MIT)-recycled carbon fiber (RCF), now Carbon Conversions, which involves mixing fibers and water and depositing the fibers on a water-immersed mold. These are referred to as ‘sheet’ forms. The produced mats were evaluated for their processing into composites as ‘fully consolidated mats’ and ‘non-consolidated’ as-produced mats. Comprehensive mechanical data in terms of tensile strength, tensile modulus and impact toughness for rCF C/PE, C/PA66 and C/PET are presented. The work is of high value to sustainable composite designers and modelers.

compression molding↗

Development of Algal Biomass Yield Improvements in an Integrated Process (Final Report)

This project built on the success of Global Algae Innovations Algae Biomass Yield Phase 1 project to accelerate the commercialization of algal biofuels through development of an integrated, economical, photosynthetic, open raceway system to produce algal oil. Two parallel pathways to a biofuel were investigated. In the algal crude oil pathway, highlighted in blue, the dewatered algal biomass slurry is used as a feed to hydrothermal liquefaction to produce an algae crude oil and recycle aqueous stream. In the algal lipid oil pathway, highlighted in green, the algal biomass slurry is dried, and the oil is extracted to produce an algal lipid oil biofuel intermediate and a high protein algae meal co-product. Upgrading to drop-in fuels has been demonstrated for the biofuel intermediates in both pathways. Since the algal lipid oil pathway requires lipid accumulation, the productivity is generally lower than the algal crude oil pathway, but the required productivity for economical algal biofuel production is also lower because the coproduct value is greater. The outdoor cultivation was performed at the Kauai Algae Farm. The project team has expertise across the full breadth strain development, advanced algal cultivation, open raceway contamination control, CO 2 supply, harvesting, dewatering, extraction, hydrothermal liquefaction, technoeconomic analysis and life cycle analysis: Hildebrand laboratory at Scripps Institution of Oceanography – diatom strain development. Mayfield laboratory at UCSD - green algae strain development. TSD Management Associates- CO 2 supply, algal harvesting and dewatering, and algal drying and extraction. Qualitas - large-scale test site for algal harvesting technology. Texas A&M University - algal drying and extraction technology. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory - hydrothermal liquefaction technology. GE Water and Power - membrane technology. National Renewable Energy Laboratory - algal techno-economic analysis. Phase 1 of the project resulted in tremendous productivity and pre-processing improvements in an integrated, large-scale, low-cost cultivation and pre-processing process that moved algal technology closer to economic viability for biofuels than ever before. Phase 2 accomplishments further facilitate development of a commercial algal biofuel industry by adding: several top performing strains and strain development tools including breeding; open-pond cultivation innovations that achieved a 30% improvement in overall productivity, an 83% reduction in cost, and a 95% reduction in energy use relative to conventional technology; further improvements in harvesting that led to the Zobi harvester ® as a universal, economical, low energy, commercially available microalgae harvesting solution; breakthroughs in drying and extraction including a new low energy drying process and several new low energy extraction unit operations that together with the Zobi harvester ® achieve a 90% reduction in cost and 97% reduction in energy use relative to conventional technology. These improvements are sufficient to enable economical production of algae biofuel and protein meal co-product if the process were scaled up to a commercial-scale 5,000-acre algae farm.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Photochemical and Photophysical Dynamics of the Aqueous Ferrate(VI) Ion

Ferrate(VI) has the potential to play a key role in future water supplies. Furthermore, its salts have been suggested as “green” alternatives to current advanced oxidation and disinfection methods in water treatment, especially when combined with ultraviolet light to stimulate generation of highly oxidizing Fe(V) and Fe(IV) species. However, the nature of these intermediates, the mechanisms by which they form, and their roles in downstream oxidation reactions remain unclear. Here, we use a combination of optical and X-ray transient absorption spectroscopies to study the formation, interconversion, and relaxation of several excited-state and metastable high-valent iron species following excitation of aqueous potassium ferrate(VI) by ultraviolet and visible light. Branching from the initially populated ligand-to-metal charge transfer state into independent photophysical and photochemical pathways occurs within tens of picoseconds, with the quantum yield for the generation of reactive Fe(V) species determined by relative rates of the competing intersystem crossing and reverse electron transfer processes. Relaxation of the metal-centered states then occurs within 4 ns, while the formation of metastable Fe(V) species occurs in several steps with time constants of 250 ps and 300 ns. Results here improve the mechanistic understanding of the formation and fate of Fe(V) and Fe(IV), which will accelerate the development of novel advanced oxidation processes for water treatment applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research: Natural Organic Matter and Microbial Controls on Mobilization/Immobilization of I and Pu in Soils and Waters Affected by Radionuclide Releases in USA and Japan

In this project, the relationship between natural organic matter (NOM) and two radioactive elements that are relevant to nuclear waste disposal were studied: Plutonium (Pu) and Iodine. The human and environmental risks associated with Pu stem mainly from the very long half-lives of several of its isotopes ( 238 Pu, 88 yr; 239 Pu, 24,100 yr; 240 Pu, 6560 yr) and its radiotoxicity. Understanding Pu biogeochemical behavior in both near-field (>10-11M) and far-field scales (<10-11M) is imperative to the development of approaches for reprocessing Pu, remediation of Pu contamination and accurate assessment of risks posed by disposal practices for Pu-bearing wastes. The environmental mobility of Pu can be affected by redox potential, pH, adsorption, precipitation, complexation, colloid formation, and microbial activity, of which the first characteristic has the most profound influence. Numerous studies have shown high affinity of Pu towards NOM, as well as to mineral phases. NOM is ubiquitous in the environment, e.g., both fulvic and humic acids are able to reduce Pu(V,VI) to Pu(IV) and the redox potential of NOM is positively related to the abundance of phenolic/acidic OH groups. NOM can either facilitate or limit actinide migration, depending on specific biogeochemical conditions including pH, mineral and organic matter characteristics, etc. The other radionuclide of interest is radioiodine ( 129 I). 129I is a major by-product of nuclear fission and of serious concern to the Department of Energy (DOE) as it is among the top risk drivers at existing and potential radiowaste-contaminated sites. The risk of 129 I stems largely from its high bioconcentration factor (90% of the body’s iodine is accumulated in the thyroid), a high inventory at source terms, a very long-half life (16M years), and rapid mobility in the subsurface environment. As a consequence, 129 I has the lowest drinking water standard (1 pCi/L) among all radionuclides in the Federal Register. With a novel and sensitive gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) method developed in our lab, it is possible to quickly and simultaneously determine the distribution of 129 I and stable 127 I forms in environments, as low as 2 pCi/L for 129 I. This method was subsequently validated using accelerator mass spectroscopy, AMS. IO 3 - and organo-I were determined as major species in the groundwater of SRS and the Hanford Site, contrary to thermodynamic predictions that I- should be the dominant species at these sites. Mobility of 129 I was also demonstrated to depend greatly on the I species and its concentration, sediment pH, and redox state, with times to achieve equilibrium taking up to 12 weeks. Along the groundwater pathway in the F-Area of SRS, 129 I- supplied from the seepage basins was transformed to 129 IO 3 - and organo- 129 I with increasing iodine sediment sorption, causing the lower total 127 I and 129 I concentrations along the gradient transect of the waste plume. By contrast, groundwater 129 I concentrations in the wetlands (as high as 1617.3 pCi/L) were greatly elevated with respect to the source term (159.3 pCi/L). While the NOM promoted the uptake of 129 I to the wetland sediment, it also promoted the formation of soluble organic fraction. A small fraction of NOM that is bound to iodine can behave as a mobile organo-I source. Iodide was enzymatically incorporated into NOM, whereas both iodide and iodate were abiotically bound to NOM, under certain conditions. Iodate removal from the mobile aqueous phase can also occur through incorporation into carbonate (e.g., at the Hanford Site, USA). Thus immobilization and re-mobilization of iodine species were influenced by pH, Eh and the presence of NOM and metal oxides, which adds to the complexity of site remediation action. A ground-breaking result was to elucidate the products (i.e. organo-iodine moieties formed via enzymatic and non-enzymatic processes) at the molecular level by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (ESI-FTICRMS). We found that iodine-NOM interactions may be influenced by NOM hydrophobic aliphatic moieties. From the perspective of ESI-FTICRMS, organo-iodine formulas were ascribed to the groups of unsaturated hydrocarbons, lignins and proteins. Iodate is likely abiotically reduced to reactive iodine species by lignin- and tannin-like compounds or carboxylic-rich alicyclic molecules (CRAM). We also investigated microbial mechanisms in iodine incorporation into NOM. We established that soil bacteria isolated from F-Area of SRS did not accumulate significant amounts of I- (0.2-2%). Intracellular uptake of I- decreases with increasing pH when pH ranged from 4 to 6. In contrast, 44 out of 84 strains isolated from the F-Area of SRS can transform I- to IO 3 - and organo-iodine. In some cases, oxidation was facilitated in the presence of H 2 O 2 . Microbes can also excrete organic acids that enhance I- oxidation by lowering the ambient pH and reacting with H 2 O 2 to form peroxy carboxylic acids. At lower pH values (≤5), H 2 O 2 hydrolysis was the driving force for iodide-oxidation; whereas, at pH ≥ 6, spontaneous decomposition of peroxy carboxylic acids, originating from H 2 O 2 and organic acids were the primary cause of iodide oxidation. Lastly, it was determined that microbial processes involved in Mn (II) are capable of directly oxidizing I- via enzymatic catalysis (i.e., multicopper oxidases), or indirectly through the formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and/or biogenic manganese oxides. ROS-mediated oxidation of I- was found to predominate at pH >5, whereas the enzymatic and Mn oxide pathways were more active at pH < 5. Together, this project has resulted in 9 publications in high-impact journals, and the training of 1 Ph.D and 4 undergraduate students.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cyanobacteria as cell factories for the photosynthetic production of sucrose

Biofuels and other biologically manufactured sustainable goods are growing in popularity and demand. Carbohydrate feedstocks required for industrial fermentation processes have traditionally been supplied by plant biomass, but the large quantities required to produce replacement commodity products may prevent the long-term feasibility of this approach without alternative strategies to produce sugar feedstocks. Cyanobacteria are under consideration as potential candidates for sustainable production of carbohydrate feedstocks, with potentially lower land and water requirements relative to plants. Several cyanobacterial strains have been genetically engineered to export significant quantities of sugars, especially sucrose. Sucrose is not only naturally synthesized and accumulated by cyanobacteria as a compatible solute to tolerate high salt environments, but also an easily fermentable disaccharide used by many heterotrophic bacteria as a carbon source. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of the current knowledge of the endogenous cyanobacterial sucrose synthesis and degradation pathways. We also summarize genetic modifications that have been found to increase sucrose production and secretion. Finally, we consider the current state of synthetic microbial consortia that rely on sugar-secreting cyanobacterial strains, which are co-cultivated alongside heterotrophic microbes able to directly convert the sugars into higher-value compounds (e.g., polyhydroxybutyrates, 3-hydroxypropionic acid, or dyes) in a single-pot reaction. We summarize recent advances reported in such cyanobacteria/heterotroph co-cultivation strategies and provide a perspective on future developments that are likely required to realize their bioindustrial potential.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An Analysis of Energy Needs and Seawater Extraction Approaches for the Integration of Primary Magnesium Production with Nuclear Power

The cost of primary magnesium production is highly dominated by the energy required to produce the metal. This, along with the current geographical concentration of its production, makes the magnesium price vulnerable as energy-production paradigms begin to rapidly change. In this work, four nuclear-integration pathways for the efficient supply of heat and electricity to magnesium production from a nuclear power plant are considered. A production route using electrified metallothermic reduction is compared to a nuclear-heat-integrated electrolytic pathway. It is shown that the latter can achieve significantly lower primary energy consumption, 261 MJ/kg Mg compared with 416 MJ/kg Mg. The electrolytic pathway can also reduce emissions down to around 2.1 kgCO2/kg Mg, compared to around 34 kgCO2/kg Mg in the Pidgeon process. Beyond energy and emissions, the four pathways considered are also compared to their ability to reduce locational dependence of the production plant and reduce process complexity. This work also highlights future advances in magnesium production with a potential scheme for the efficient extraction of magnesium from seawater with coproduction of desalinated water and the potential of demand-side response from magnesium electrolysis. This is the first work to consider the full integration of primary magnesium production using nuclear cogeneration, and it is hoped the study paves the way for the analysis of economic nuclear integration within metal extraction and manufacturing.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine (Final Report)

As the nation continues to encourage, through market structures and financial incentives, the proliferation of intermittent renewable electricity, how to optimize the ever-changing electric grid and identify means to retain and improve resilience, while ensuring continued reductions in GHG emissions, will be critical. According to Bloomberg, wind & solar generated 10.5% of US electricity in 2020 and that percentage continues to grow. In support of expanding renewable energy use, and to address its intermittent nature, this project will develop the Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform that is dispatchable, reliable, repeatable and have the ability to produce zero or negative carbon power while interfacing with geology capable of CO2 and hydrogen storage. GTI Energy (GTIE) and team members Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America (MHIA), Ameren Illinois, Hexagon Purus, and the Low Carbon Resources Initiative (LCRI) completed a Phase I Conceptual Study under contract DE-FE0032012 for Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine. The Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform addresses the intermittent nature of the expanding use of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) generation. The low cost of the electricity (COE) generated results in greater dispatch and more operation at higher power levels (higher efficiency), fewer short intervals, and fewer start/stop cycles. The reliable, resilient system can produce zero carbon power and store hydrogen. It will demonstrate hydrogen storage in geologic formations like those used in natural gas underground storage thus enabling large scale storage of hydrogen in sedimentary strata across the United States rather than in geographically restricted salt caverns. The Phase I study confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production. The study advanced the maturity of the H 2 storage-based system with flexible power generation by completing a Pre-FEED study (Phase II). The Pre-FEED focused on the selected Energy Farm on the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) site that includes above ground and underground hydrogen storage, low-carbon hydrogen production (GTI’s Compact Hydrogen Generator, CHG) with underground CO2 sequestration, and a 40-MW class gas turbine. The Pre-FEED addressed the entire system and its interconnection to the natural gas and electric grid and mitigation of key risks, such as storage behavior, load-following, and system operation. During Phase 1 of the project, the team completed key tasks, which moved the entire demonstration project, specific components and approaches closer to commercialization. These Phase I Accomplishments include: Completing System Requirements Review; Completing System Layout and Modeling - Heat & Mass Balance and Process Flow Diagram; Completing modelling of 9 turbine performance cases; Evaluating rock strata for underground storage of hydrogen and sequestration of carbon dioxide; Completing initial modelling of underground storage of hydrogen and withdrawal with evaluation of loss and water production; Identifying roadable storage for above ground hydrogen storage; Identifying existing electrical infrastructure for receiving/delivering electricity; Identifying existing gas supply infrastructure for receiving natural gas; Document concept design/development plans in required reports. Conclusions: The 12-month Feasibility study in Phase I study was completed and confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches and even lower cost than the reference NGCC plant without carbon capture when taking advantage of 45Q carbon credits. The study enabled the fidelity of the concept to be improved and allowed identification of the requirements for the system. Defining the individual system and component requirements was performed via the system requirements review with the whole team. These requirements were then incorporated into and iterated with our Heat & Mass Balance process model and process flow diagrams were generated to reflect the overall system. This information was then used to complete the TEA and show economic feasibility. Large scale non-salt geologic storage of hydrogen is an enabling technology for a hydrogen-fired turbine that can be retrofitted into large-scale electric generating units (EGU). Our demonstration will include 428 MWh or ~4 hours full load of hydrogen storage (above and underground). Carbon capture inherent to the CHG process can capture 90% CO 2 (with upgrades to >98%). This system provides a COE of 23% savings relative to an NGCC with a post combustion amine system. Our proposed storage system decouples carbon capture and hydrogen production from power production; therefore, we expect our proposed system’s efficiency and variable COE to be superior resulting in overall higher dispatch and reduced deep cycling. Our demonstration will be full to multi-day hydrogen storage and has the potential for longer (seasonal) duration commercially. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Hydronic Shell: An Affordable Solution for Multifamily Deep Energy Retrofit

Approximately 42% of multi-family buildings in the United States have do not have insulation as required by the building codes. Envelope retrofits of these buildings are needed to improve their thermal performance, provide thermal resilience, and enable a pathway to electrification of space heating systems. Hydronic shell (HS) is a retrofit technique where a stud wall layer is added to a masonry wall along with a convective coil and a fan coil unit fitted in the façade cavity which can provide both heating and cooling to the space. The HS system serves a dual purpose of 1) retrofitting the building envelope and 2) retrofitting the HVAC system and enabling electrification of space heating. The electrification of space heating is possible from the installation of a combination of hydronic system/fan coil unit system which uses a central heat pump as a source of heating water in the cavity between the existing wall and retrofit insulation layer. This study evaluates the performance of the HS system at varying outdoor conditions mimicked by a climate chamber and hot water supply temperature from a water bath. During the ramp-up period, the indoor chamber temperature could be increased from 66 ºF to 69.5 ºF within an hour using heating water at 120 ºF when the outdoor chamber temperature was at 0 ºF. When the indoor chamber temperature was maintained within a deadband, variation in cavity air temperature was mostly influenced by the duration when water was flowing through the cavity convector. It was seen from the testing that the hydronic system alone without use of fan in the system is able to maintain the space temperature at coldest outdoor condition used in the experiment (0 ºF) even at lowest hot water supply temperature chosen (90 ºF). During the ramp-down period, the fastest decline in temperature took 6.4 hours from temperature to drop from 69.6 ºF to 66 ºF which shows tremendous potential of thermal resilience and peak load shifting.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Emerging investigator series: kinetics of diopside reactivity for carbon mineralization in mafic–ultramafic rocks

The ongoing use of fossil fuels to supply modern energy demands has necessitated research on combating carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and climate change. Carbon storage via mineral trapping in basalt and related rocks is a promising strategy. However, mineralization rates depend on the variable minerology that makes up these rock formations. Diopside (CaMgSi 2 O 6 ) is a common pyroxene mineral in ultramafic and mafic rocks including basalt, but relatively little work has been done to understand its carbon mineralization kinetics using hydrated supercritical CO 2 , which induces the formation of reactive nanoscale interfacial water films. Here, in situ XRD experiments at 50–110 °C and 90 bar indicate that diopside transforms into a myriad of Mg/Ca carbonates, including huntite [Mg 3 Ca(CO 3 ) 4 ] and very high magnesium calcite (VHMC, i.e., protodolomite). Through ex situ characterization, we were able to constrain reaction pathways for the dissolution–precipitation transformation process including metastable intermediate precipitates. Experiments performed at variable temperatures enabled Avrami-derived rate constants and an apparent activation energy of 97 ± 16 kJ mol –1 , implying the dissolution of diopside is the rate-limiting step. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations, used to gain molecular insight into the surface stability of the diopside during dissolution, suggest that exposed calcium cations are susceptible to dissolution when put in contact with water given their coordination environment. The collective results point to the high CO 2 mineralization potential of diopside in basalts, which could help guide parameterization of reactive transport models needed to design and permit commercial-scale subsurface carbon storage operations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Enabling residential heating decarbonization through hydronic low-temperature thermal distribution using forced-air assistive devices

Space heating represents approximately one-tenth of the United States’ energy use and has a breadth of potential for emission reduction. An element of space heating, hydronic heat distribution methods, use water supply temperatures up to 82.2 °C (180 °F). However, this operating temperature can be incompatible with high-efficiency heat generation systems, which typically provide heating temperatures of up to 60 °C (140 °F). In this work, a low-cost retrofit solution is developed using experimentally validated computational tools by incorporating an airflow distributor that preferentially directs the airflow from a fan to enhance heat transfer over the finned-tube heat exchanger found in conventional baseboards. The same heat output of traditional baseboard heat distribution systems operating at higher water supply temperatures (71.1 – 82.2 °C) can also be achieved at lower temperatures (≤60 °C). Specifically, results indicate that the technology can produce more than a 46.7% improvement in the heat transfer output at temperatures as low as 60 °C (140 °F), effectively matching the same output range achieved by 71.1 – 82.2 °C (160–180 °F) water supply temperatures. An important benefit of this solution is that it utilizes the existing infrastructure as opposed to requiring the replacement of the entire distribution system. Additionally, this technology enables existing building infrastructure to be coupled with newer, high-efficiency heating systems such as condensing boilers, solar-thermal systems, and geothermal/air-to-water heat pumps that may produce lower water supply temperatures (60 °C). A geospatially resolved techno-economic and environmental analysis is completed and presented to further understand the equivalent carbon footprint of enabling higher efficiency heat generation systems with the improved efficiency heat distribution system disclosed. Using 2021 grid-average emission factors, an emission reduction of up to a 67.5% decrease (2658 kgCO 2 /yr) for a single-family home, depending on state and climate region, could be realized by replacing a traditional natural gas-fired boiler with an air-to-water heat pump coupled to the same high-temperature heat distribution system along with the low-cost retrofit solution. A complete CO 2 emission reduction of 6688 kgCO 2 /yr, depending on state and climate region, could be realized if all electricity is further renewably sourced. Thus, this study provides a possible pathway towards enabling the reduction of operational emissions in space heating.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Development of a Techno-Economic Analysis Framework for a Solar Thermochemical Fuel Production Process

Synthetic liquid fuels can provide a drop-in substitute for fossil-based fuels in sectors such as aviation and maritime, where electrification is not a viable option due to the need for high specific energy density. However, for these alternative fuels to be adopted at a commercial scale, their price must be competitive compared to their fossil-based counterparts. The reverse water-gas shift (RWGS) reaction offers a promising pathway, using hydrogen (sourced from electrolysis) and carbon dioxide as the feed and reacting to produce syngas - a mixture of H2 and CO at a specific ratio. Syngas is a useful precursor that can be converted into fuels and chemicals via known downstream processes, such as liquid transportation fuels via Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis. The RWGS reaction is currently not applied in commercial scale, unlike the rest of the components in the process chain (electrolyzers and syngas-to-fuel synthesis units). The RWGS reaction poses several challenges due to its restrictive thermodynamics. Being an equimolar reaction, high temperatures and a large excess of H2 are needed to achieve reasonable CO2 conversion at equilibrium. This has detrimental effects on practical process implementation and the quality of syngas that can be produced, with direct effect on the energy and capital requirements, as well as the need for expensive downstream separation. In this work, we are proposing to develop a new concentrating solar thermal (CST) compatible RWGS reactor, performing the reaction in a 2-step chemical looping process using metal oxide at a temperature range of 600-800 degrees Celsius. By decoupling the reactor from the solar receiver, the Generation 3 (Gen3) CST technology could be utilized, together with its proposed thermal energy storage (TES) technology, benefitting from a good match to the required temperatures. CST technology is a viable option for supplying the heat that could be rapidly deployed in scale, thus being a good match to the gas-to-liquid (GTL) process which requires a large minimal scale to be commercially viable. The integration of TES with CST also allows operating the plant at large annual capacity factors and avoids multiple shutdown/startup cycles, thus fitting into the steady-state operation mode that most GTL processes require. The main innovation in the proposed design hinges on a countercurrent reaction design using a packed bed reactor. In 2019 Metcalfe et al. showed the benefits of countercurrent species exchange could be realized in a redox chemical-looping processes, by storing the favorable countercurrent chemical potential profiles in a packed bed of non-stoichiometric oxide. Metcalfe et al. applied this breakthrough concept to the WGS reaction, which is conventionally a co-feed catalytic process, showing a dramatic improvement. Bulfin et al. (2023) performed a similar proof-of-concept demonstration for the RWGS reaction using CeO2, achieving cumulative and peak CO2 conversions of 88% and 95%, respectively, compared to a thermodynamic limit of 58% for the co-feed catalytic process at the same conditions. In our new REGENLOOP project, we are developing a reactor prototype from the heat-exchange packed bed reactor-type, a commonly used reactor in the chemical industry. The endothermic heat of reduction will be supplied to the reactor using CST, while the same heat transfer fluid (HTF) mechanism will be used to extract the exothermic heat of oxidation. An array of multiple reactors is used to supply constant high-purity CO stream, that is then mixed with H2 from electrolysis to produce a high-purity syngas at the required composition. By removing the CO-CO2 separation after the RWGS process, significant energy and cost reduction can be achieved. A physics-based TEA framework is currently being developed, covering all the major plant processes, from the solar collection through storage, chemical looping RWGS, GTL, and auxiliary unit operations, up to the liquid hydrocarbon product. This modeling framework will utilize reduced-order models for the chemical looping RWGS and TES, CST modeling using SolarPILOT, and Aspen Plus for the GTL. By using this combined physics-based approach, the effects of design/operating parameters on the performance and cost can be elucidated. In our presentation, the modeling framework will be presented in detail, including preliminary cost predictions of using this plant configuration under a few selected relevant case studies. This study will be used to identify the major cost drivers, informing further system design and optimization needed to chart the way for a commercially viable pathway.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Case Study of Integrating High-Temperature Heat Pump with LiBr-H2O Absorption Chiller for Data Center Liquid Cooling

Data centers (DCs) are physical infrastructures that support artificial intelligence workloads. The rapid growth of artificial intelligence is putting substantial pressure on the US power grid. Most of electricity consumed by IT equipment, accounting for 50%-60% of total DC power, ultimately becomes waste heat. This heat is dissipated by DC’s cooling facilities, accounting for an additional 30%-40% of total DC power. Recovering and repurposing this waste heat offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency and reduce operating costs of DCs. One potential pathway is converting heat to cold using thermal-driven absorption chillers, therefore, reducing the power consumption in DC cooling facilities. Existing studies mainly demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of repurposing DC’s waste heat for cooling applications but provide limited technical details on how to integrate the thermal-driven absorption chillers with DC cooling systems. In addition, the low-grade waste heat available from DCs must be upgraded to higher temperatures suitable for absorption chillers. This paper presents a case study on integrating high-temperature heat pumps with a LiBr-H2O absorption chiller to use DC waste heat for cooling. A thermodynamic model of single-effect, LiBr-H2O absorption chiller and an empirical model of high-temperature heat pumps were built. The case study considers ASHRAE W17 liquid-cooled DC, with facility service water supplied at 17.0℃ and returned at 25.3℃. The thermal behaviors of absorption chiller components were predicted for the generation temperature ranging from 75.0℃ to 115.0℃. Based on the available waste heat in the integrated system, two waste heat recovery strategies were evaluated: a facility service water-based strategy and cooling water-based strategy. Results indicated that the cooling water-based strategy achieves higher Coefficient of Performance (COPs) than the facility service water-based strategy. The relatively low cooling COPs of single-effect LiBr-H2O absorption chillers could be offset by high heating COP of high temperature heat pumps. The maximum cooling COP of absorption chiller and the overall COP of integrated systems occur at lower generation temperatures, but these conditions also yield lower cooling capacities. In practice, system operation should balance the trade-off between the COP and cooling capacity

Wang, Pengtao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000214713429)↗

Emerging Contaminants: Identification, Life Cycle, and Key Challenges - 20415

The term 'emerging contaminants' and its multiple variants has come to refer to previously overlooked compounds discovered in the environment which represent a potential threat to human and ecological receptors. These compounds may be discovered in the environment as new analytical techniques are developed and/or as new monitoring programs for drinking water and groundwater are implemented, while the threat to receptors may be realized through advances in understanding of toxicology and pathways to receptors. Emerging contaminants present unique and considerable challenges as demands to address them can outpace the understanding of their toxicity, their need for regulation, their occurrence, and techniques for treating the environmental media they affect. With these challenges in mind, this paper serves as a primer for understanding emerging contaminants. The paper will lay a foundation for understanding emerging contaminants through three key topics: 1. Who identifies emerging contaminants? An overview of the various stakeholder groups around the world working on identifying potential emerging contaminants and developing systems for screening potential candidates, prioritizing, and ultimately generating regulations will be provided. 2. How Chemicals Rise into Awareness as Emerging Contaminants. The process by which contaminants emerge through a cycle of awareness, characterization, management and regulation will be discussed. Current emerging contaminants will be discussed in the context of the life cycle: emerging contaminants where impacts to drinking water supplies are driving public awareness (e.g. per and polyfuoroalkyl substances (PFASs) and 1,4-dioxane), emerging contaminants impacted by changing regulatory standards or development and debate on toxicity (e.g., hexavalent chromium, 1,2,3-trichloropropane, trichloroethylene in vapor intrusion), and those with evolving understanding of impacts and usage (e.g., microplastics). 3. Key Challenges. Unique challenges associated with emerging contaminants, including visibility and public sensitivity, uncertainty and vulnerability, will be discussed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evolution of global snow drought characteristics from 1850 to 2100

Abstract Seasonal snow is an integral part of the global water supply and storage system. Snow droughts impact ecological, agricultural, and urban systems by altering the amount and timing of meltwater delivery. These droughts are characterized by a lack of on-the-ground snow (snow water equivalent, SWE) that can be caused by low total precipitation (dry drought) or low proportion of precipitation falling as snowfall (warm drought), often combined with an early melt. The standardized SWE index (SWEI) ranks the current status of SWE for a given location compared to a baseline condition and identifies the existence, but not the cause, of snow drought. In this work, we use estimates of SWE, temperature, and precipitation from nine coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to quantify the frequency, severity, and type of snow droughts globally for historical and future scenarios. Compared to a historical baseline (1850–1900) total snow drought frequency more than doubles under socio-economic pathway (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5; all of the increase in snow drought frequency comes from an increase in warm droughts. The probability distribution of future SWEI in major snowy basins around the world are likely to be centered on more negative values, which corresponds to more severe drought and, with only moderate changes in distribution spread, more frequent drought. CMIP6 simulations pinpoint snow drought as an emerging global threat to water resources and highlight the need to explore higher resolution future models that better capture complex mountain topography, wildland fires, and snow-forest interactions.

CMIP6↗

Geologic hydrogen: From natural occurrences to anthropogenic generation – A review of fundamentals, potential, challenges and prospects

Growing demand for hydrogen is exposing the environmental and economic limits of reforming-based and carbon-managed supply chains, while the scale-up of electrolytic capacity remains capital-constrained. Geologic hydrogen, defined as molecular H₂ generated and stored within the Earth's crust offers a complementary, potentially lower-cost resource, yet exploration is still ad hoc. This review (1) revisits a global inventory of confirmed hydrogen seeps and subsurface occurrences; (2) analyzes the controlling reactions, migration pathways, and trapping conditions governing these occurrences; (3) proposes a process-based geologic hydrogen system concept analogous to, yet distinct from, the petroleum system; and (4) evaluates potential geologic hydrogen systems within the United States as a representative case study. Here, we contrast natural systems powered by serpentinization, mantle degassing or radiolysis with anthropogenic systems that stimulate the same reactions or convert in-situ hydrocarbons. Stable hydrogen accumulations require generation rates that outpace combined physical, chemical and microbial losses; the Bourakébougou field (Mali) exemplifies a self-recharging, free-gas reservoir sustained by meteoric-water serpentinization beneath an efficient caprock. Prospective geologic hydrogen resources are likely to occur in regions where iron-rich lithologies, deep-seated faults, and low-permeability sealing formations coexist. Applying this principle, we highlight three promising hydrogen play types in U.S. geological terrains: ophiolite belts (Appalachian and Californian regions), the Midcontinent Rift and the Lake Superior banded‑iron formations. Multiphysics numerical models and positive-unlabeled machine-learning workflows help to accelerate play screening and de-risk future production; yet, reaction kinetics, stimulation strategies, and full techno-economic and life-cycle assessments remain pivotal knowledge gaps.

Anthropogenic hydrogen generation↗