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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Characteristics of the Water Cycle From Scaling Relationships

Over multi-decadal time scales, assuming that changes in subsurface water storage are negligible, the continental precipitative water flux, P, can be divided into two principal components, Q (run-off, including soil infiltration and groundwater recharge) and ET (evapotranspiration). Taking into account a broadly applied Budyko's phenomenology to describe the relationship of ET/P as a function of PET/P, where PET is the potential evapotranspiration, we propose a theoretical framework for predicting characteristics of the water cycle from scaling relationships. In this framework, the ecosystem net primary productivity is expressed in terms of soil formation and vegetation growth, which is mathematically optimized with respect to the water partitioning, generating directly the value ET/P. Here, the mathematical optimization is based on the general ecological principle that dominant ecosystems tend to be those that, for any given conditions, maximize conversion of atmospheric carbon to biomass. It is shown that application of the results of mathematical optimization to water-limited ecosystems is possible by applying the optimization only to a vegetation covered portion of the surface. For energy-limited ecosystems, the optimization can be applied only to a portion of the precipitation equal to PET, assuming that the remaining P simply runs off. We use theoretical and actual values of plant root fractal dimensionalities, d f , to predict ranges of ET/P as a function of PET/P for 0 ≤ PET/P ≤ 1 and compare with annual and multi-decadal means of ET/P. By comparing the developed approach with a large amount of data collected from the literature, we demonstrate its successful applications to both water- and energy-limited systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Understanding the Water Cycle Above the North Polar Cap on Mars Using MRO CRISM Retrievals of Water Vapor

The north polar cap (NPC) on Mars is the major reservoir of atmospheric water (H2O) currently on Mars. The retrieval and monitoring of atmospheric water vapor abundance are crucial for tracking the cycle of water above the NPC. The Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) aboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has provided a wealth of data that extend over 5 + Martian years, covering the time period between 2006 and 2016. CRISM is ideally suited for spring and summer observations of the north polar region (latitudes poleward of 60 °N). The retrievals of water vapor column abundances over this extended period of time were performed over both ice-free and water ice covered surfaces, extending the coverage of the water vapor maps to include the permanent cap, where a maximum value of 90 precipitable micrometers (pr–µm) is retrieved, as compared to 60 pr–µm over ice-free regions in the North Polar Region. Away from summertime maximum, modest interannual variability in the water vapor abundance is observed. Zonal averages over all the observed Martian years combined show a developing water front that shifts northward towards summer, before dissipating over the permanent cap during mid-summer. A prominent feature at latitudes around 75 °N shows large abundances of water vapor, indicating a water vapor annulus encircling the retreating edge of the seasonal polar cap during late spring. Meridional transport of water modeled here show that the annulus may be a result of the convergence of water vapor from both south and north along the retreating edge of the NPC.

Khayat, Alain S. J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Connected Isotopic Water Cycle in the Community Earth System Model Version 1

Because of the pervasive role of water in the Earth system, the relative abundances of stable isotopologues of water are valuable for understanding atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric processes, and for interpreting paleoclimate proxy reconstructions. Isotopologues are transported by both largescale and turbulent flows, and the ratio of heavy to light isotopologues changes due to fractionation that can accompany condensation and evaporation processes. Correctly predicting the isotopic distributions requires resolving the relationships between largescale ocean and atmospheric circulation and smallerscale hydrological processes, which can be accomplished within a coupled climate modeling framework. Here we present the water isotopeenabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (iCESM1), which simulates global variations in water isotopic ratios in the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice. In a transient Last Millennium simulation covering the 850-2005 period, iCESM1 correctly captures the latetwentiethcentury structure of δ(exp 18)O and δD over the global oceans, with more limited accuracy over land. The relationship between salinity and seawater δ(exp 18)O is also well represented over the observational period, including interbasin variations. We illustrate the utility of coupled, isotopeenabled simulations using both Last Millennium simulations and freshwater hosing experiments with iCESM1. Closing the isotopic mass balance between all components of the coupled model provides new confidence in the underlying depiction of the water cycle in CESM, while also highlighting areas where the underlying hydrologic balance can be improved. The iCESM1 is poised to be a vital community resource for ongoing model development with both modern and paleoclimate applications.

Brady, E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Coupling Mars' Dust and Water Cycles: Effects on Dust Lifting Vigor, Spatial Extent and Seasonality

The dust cycle is an important component of Mars' current climate system. Airborne dust affects the radiative balance of the atmosphere, thus greatly influencing the thermal and dynamical state of the atmosphere. Dust raising events on Mars occur at spatial scales ranging from meters to planet-wide. Although the occurrence and season of large regional and global dust storms are highly variable from one year to the next, there are many features of the dust cycle that occur year after year. Generally, a low-level dust haze is maintained during northern spring and summer, while elevated levels of atmospheric dust occur during northern autumn and winter. During years without global-scale dust storms, two peaks in total dust loading were observed by MGS/TES: one peak occurred before northern winter solstice at Ls 200-240, and one peak occurred after northern winter solstice at L(sub s) 305-340. These maxima in dust loading are thought to be associated with transient eddy activity in the northern hemisphere, which has been observed to maximize pre- and post-solstice. Interactive dust cycle studies with Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) have included the lifting, transport, and sedimentation of radiatively active dust. Although the predicted global dust loadings from these simulations capture some aspects of the observed dust cycle, there are marked differences between the simulated and observed dust cycles. Most notably, the maximum dust loading is robustly predicted by models to occur near northern winter solstice and is due to dust lifting associated with down slope flows on the flanks of the Hellas basin. Thus far, models have had difficulty simulating the observed pre- and post- solstice peaks in dust loading. Interactive dust cycle studies typically have not included the formation of water ice clouds or their radiative effects. Water ice clouds can influence the dust cycle by scavenging dust from atmosphere and by interacting with solar and infrared radiation, thereby modifying the thermal structure of the atmosphere and its circulation. Results presented in other papers at this workshop show that including the radiative effects of water ice clouds greatly influence the water cycle and the vigor of weather systems in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Our goal is to investigate the effects of fully coupling the dust and water cycles on the dust cycle. We show that including water ice clouds and their radiative effects greatly affect the magnitude, spatial extent and seasonality of dust lifting and the season of maximum atmospheric dust loading.

Kahre, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quality Data Essential for Modeling Water Cycles Effectively

The experimental and observational data is the backbone of effective modeling of all aspects of water cycles. As the computer technology used for these data gathering efforts has improved dramatically in the recent decades, the environmental conditions these instruments are subjected to remain pretty much the same. These measuring instruments are exposed to the sun light, wind, rain, snow and ice; and they are immersed in dirt, water and mud. All of these are damaging to the electronics components used for data gathering, storage, and transmission, which creates many different kinds of data quality issues that affect the quality and reliability of modeling and prediction efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Observed State of the Water Cycle in the Early Twenty-First Century

This study quantifies mean annual and monthly fluxes of Earth's water cycle over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the flux estimates are based on satellite measurements first and data-integrating models second. A careful accounting of uncertainty in the estimates is included. It is applied within a routine that enforces multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework in order to produce objectively determined optimized flux estimates. In the majority of cases, the observed annual surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are negligible. Fluxes were poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Many of the satellite systems that contributed data have been or will soon be lost or replaced. Models that integrate ground-based and remote observations will be critical for ameliorating gaps and discontinuities in the data records caused by these transitions. Continued development of such models is essential for maximizing the value of the observations. Next-generation observing systems are the best hope for significantly improving global water budget accounting.

Numerical analysis/modeling↗
NASA NTRS2003

Water Cycling in the North Polar Region of Mars

To date, there has been no comprehensive study to understand the partitioning of water into vapor and ice clouds, and the associated effects of dust and surface temperature in the north polar region. Ascertaining the degree to which water is transported out of the cap region versus within the cap region will give much needed insight into the overall story of water cycling on a seasonal basis. In particular, understanding the mechanism for the polar cap surface albedo changes would go along way in comprehending the sources and sinks of water in the northern polar region. We approach this problem by examining Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) atmospheric and surface data acquired in the northern summer season and comparing it to Viking data when possible. Because the TES instrument spans the absorption bands of water vapor, water ice, dust, and measures surface temperature, all three aerosols and surface temperature can be retrieved simultaneously. This presentation will show our latest results on the water vapor, water-ice clouds seasonal and spatial distributions, as well as surface temperatures and dust distribution which may lend insight into where the water is going.

L K Tamppari↗
NASA NTRS1993

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.

Vane, Deborah↗
NASA NTRS1993

The Mars water cycle at other epochs - Recent history of the polar caps and layered terrain

A numerical model is presented of the integrated role of seasonal water cycle on the evolution of polar deposits on Mars over the last 10 million years. From the model, it is concluded that the only major difference between the polar caps which affects their long-term behavior is ultimately the difference in their elevations. Because of that difference, there is a preference for CO2 frost to stay longer on the northern polar cap. The average difference in sublimation at the caps results in a net south-to-north transport of water ice over long time scales. Superimposed on any long-term behavior is a transfer of water ice between the caps on the 10 exp 5 - 10 exp 6 yr time scales. The amount of water exchanged is small compared to the total ice content of the polar deposits.

Jakosky, Bruce M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observationally-based relations among water cycle parameters during snowfall events in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Cold-season precipitation predictability within the complex terrain of the Upper Colorado River Basin is vital for water resource management across many western states, as the Colorado River serves as a primary source of water for over 40 million people in the Western United States and Mexico. This study uses the remote sensing measurements of such water cycle parameters as the liquid equivalent snowfall rate, S, and accumulation, A, vertically integrated amounts of supercooled cloud liquid and ice expressed as liquid water path(LWP) and ice water path (IWP), respectively, and vertically integrated water vapor IWV.

Matrosov, Sergey [CIRES University of Colorado Bou↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advancing the Predictability of Water Cycle Phenomena via the Application of AI to Model Ensemble Simulations and Observations

AI has the power to identify new pathways to extended predictability of the water cycle via its application to model ensembles together with accompanying observations. We discuss both scientific and technological aspects of this challenge, and address the parts of the MODEX approach involving “Model simulations, evaluation, analysis, and benchmarking” and “Identification of key knowledge gaps”. The widespread incorporation of AI into model analysis will significantly advance Earth system predictability and our predictive capabilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evolution of the Large Scale Circulation, Cloud Structure and Regional Water Cycle Associated with the South China Sea Monsoon During May-June, 1998

In this paper, changes in the large-scale circulation, cloud structures and regional water cycle associated with the evolution of the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon in May-June 1998 were investigated using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and field data from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX). Results showed that both tropical and extratropical processes strongly influenced the onset and evolution of the SCS monsoon. Prior to the onset of the SCS monsoon, enhanced convective activities associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation were detected over the Indian Ocean, and the SCS was under the influence of the West Pacific Anticyclone (WPA) with prevailing low level easterlies and suppressed convection. Establishment of low-level westerlies across Indo-China, following the development of a Bay of Bengal depression played an important role in building up convective available potential energy over the SCS. The onset of SCS monsoon appeared to be triggered by the equatorward penetration of extratropical frontal system, which was established over the coastal region of southern China and Taiwan in early May. Convective activities over the SCS were found to vary inversely with those over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Analysis of TRMM microwave and precipitation radar data revealed that during the onset phase, convection over the northern SCS consisted of squall-type rain cell embedded in meso-scale complexes similar to extratropical systems. The radar Z-factor intensity indicated that SCS clouds possessed a bimodal distribution, with a pronounced signal (less than 30dBz) at a height of 2-3 km, and another one (less than 25 dBz) at the 8-10 km level, separated by a well-defined melting level indicated by a bright band at around 5-km level. The stratiform-to-convective cloud ratio was approximately 1:1 in the pre-onset phase, but increased to 5:1 in the active phase. Regional water budget calculations indicated that during the active phase, the SCS was a strong sink (E-P much less than 0) of atmospheric moisture, with the primary source of moisture coming from regions further west over Indo-China and the eastern Indian Ocean. Before onset and during the break, the SCS was a moisture source (E-P greater than ) to the overlying atmosphere. In particular, the SCS provided the bulk of moisture to the torrential rain over the YRV in mid-June 1998.

Lau, William K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

What is the Time Scale for Orbital Forcing of the Martian Water Cycle?

Calculation of the periodic variations in the martian orbital parameters by Ward and subsequent refinements to the theory have inspired numerous models of variation of the martian water cycle. Most of these models have focused on variations in planetary obliquity on a both a short-term (110 kyr) time scale as well as larger oscillations occuring over millions of years. To a lesser extent, variations in planetary eccentricity have also been considered. The third and fastest mode of variation, the precession of the longitude of perihelion, has generally been deemphasized because, among the three parameters, it is the only one that does not change the integrated annual insolation. But as a result of this precession, the asymmetry in peak summer insolation between the poles exceeds 50%, with the maximum cycling between poles every 25.5 kyrs. The relative contribution of these different elements to orbital forcing of climate takes on particular importance in the context of apparently recent waterrelated features such as gullies or polar layered deposits (PLD). Christensen, for example, recently indentified mantling of heavily gullied crater walls as residual dust-covered snow deposits that were responsible for the formation of the gullies in a previous epoch. Christensen assumed that the snow was originally deposited at a period of high obliquity which was stabilized against sublimation by a lag deposit of dust. It is suggested here that not obliquity, but the shortterm oscillations associated with precession of the perihelion may play the dominant role in the formation of gullies, major strata in the polar layered deposits (PLD), and other water-related features.

M H Hecht↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Mars water cycle at other epochs: Recent history of the polar caps and layered terrain

The Martian polar caps and layered terrain presumably evolves by the deposition and removal of small amounts of water and dust each year, the current cap attributes therefore represent the incremental transport during a single year as integrated over long periods of time. The role was studied of condensation and sublimation of water ice in this process by examining the seasonal water cycle during the last 10(exp 7) yr. In the model, axial obliquity, eccentricity, and L sub s of perihelion vary according to dynamical models. At each epoch, the seasonal variations in temperature are calculated at the two poles, keeping track of the seasonal CO2 cap and the summertime sublimation of water vapor into the atmosphere; net exchange of water between the two caps is calculated based on the difference in the summertime sublimation between the two caps (or on the sublimation from one cap if the other is covered with CO2 frost all year). Results from the model can help to explain (1) the apparent inconsistency between the timescales inferred for layer formation and the much older crater retention age of the cap and (2) the difference in sizes of the two residual caps, with the south being smaller than the north.

Jakosky, Bruce M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-scale Multi-physics Scientific Machine Learning for Water Cycle Extreme Events Identification, Labelling, Representation, and Characterization

Impacts of climate are usually felt through extreme events such as droughts, floods, thunderstorms, windstorms, wildfires, and so on, that are intimately tied to the water cycle. Predicting the frequency and severity of extreme events under climate change remains a significant challenge; meanwhile, the mechanisms and impacts of these extremes are far from well understood. There are several major science challenges: (1) Lack of labelled extreme events data and missing standards in defining extremes; (2) Computational demand of high-resolution ensemble climate modeling; (3) Modeling the multiscale multi-physics hierarchical structure of compound extremes; (4) Lack of understanding of mechanisms of extreme events; (5) Large uncertainty in extreme events impacts on infrastructure; (6) Subjective assessment of weather-related risk from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales and lack of metrics for risk assessment and mitigation control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

A preliminary study of the tropical water cycle and its sensitivity to surface warming

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM) has been used to demonstrate that cumulus-scale dynamics and microphysics play a major role in determining the vertical distribution of water vapor and clouds in the tropical atmosphere. The GCEM is described and is the basic structure of cumulus convection. The long-term equilibrium response to tropical convection to surface warming is examined. A picture of the water cycle within tropical cumulus clusters is developed.

Lau, K. M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observational Capabilities to Capture Water Cycle Event Dynamics and Impacts in the Age of AI

This whitepaper is responsive to focal area (1) Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning (ML), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and advanced methods. Here we describe how Earth observations specific to water cycle disturbances can be collected in parallel with and integrated into future model development, and make use of the latest technologies other than AI/ ML such as 5G/satellite, edge computing, big data technologies, and cloud computing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Teleconnections-Induced Predictability of Regional Water Cycle on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales Using Machine Learning Approaches

Focal Area: (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: Predictive understanding of the regional water cycle based on teleconnections of climate modes of variability using AI methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗