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At least 91 records · Page 5

Breakups are complicated: an efficient representation of collisional breakup in the superdroplet method

Abstract. A key constraint of particle-based methods for modeling cloud microphysics is the conservation of total particle number, which is required for computational tractability. The process of collisional breakup poses a particular challenge to this framework, as breakup events often produce many droplet fragments of varying sizes, which would require creating new particles in the system. This work introduces a representation of collisional breakup in the so-called “superdroplet” method which conserves the total number of superdroplets in the system. This representation extends an existing stochastic collisional-coalescence scheme and samples from a fragment size distribution in an additional Monte Carlo step. This method is demonstrated in a set of idealized box model and single-column warm-rain simulations. We further discuss the effects of the breakup dynamic and fragment size distribution on the particle size distribution, hydrometeor population, and microphysical process rates. Box model experiments serve to characterize the impacts of properties such as coalescence efficiency and fragmentation function on the relative roles of collisional breakup and coalescence. The results demonstrate that this representation of collisional breakup can produce a stationary particle size distribution, in which breakup and coalescence rates are approximately equal, and that it recovers expected behavior such as a reduction in precipitate-sized particles in the column model. The breakup algorithm presented here contributes to an open-source pythonic implementation of the superdroplet method, PySDM, which will facilitate future research using particle-based microphysics.

de Jong, Emily (ORCID:0000000253104554)↗

A mountain-induced moist baroclinic wave test case for the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models

Idealized test cases for the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models are informative tools to assess the accuracy of the numerical designs and investigate the general characteristics of atmospheric motions. A new test case is introduced that is built upon a baroclinically unstable base state with an added orographic barrier. The topography is analytically prescribed and acts as a trigger of both baroclinic Rossby waves and inertia–gravity waves on a rotating, regular-sized planet. Both dry and idealized moist configurations are suggested. The latter utilizes the Kessler warm-rain precipitation scheme. The test case enhances the complexity of the existing test suite hierarchy and focuses on the impacts of two midlatitudinal mountain ridges on the circulation. Selected simulation examples from four dynamical cores are shown. These are the Spectral Element and Finite Volume dynamical cores, which are part of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM), versions 2.1.3 and 2.2, and the Cubed-Sphere Finite Volume dynamical cores, which is new to CESM version 2.2. In addition, the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is tested. The overall flow patterns agree well in the four dynamical cores, but the details can vary greatly. The examples highlight the broad palette of use cases for the test case and reveal physics–dynamics coupling issues.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mesoscale characteristics of monsoonal convection and associated stratiform precipitation

Observations undertaken on 12 January 1990 at Darwin (Australia) are used to document the structure of a monsoonal rainband in a low convective available potential energy low-shear tropical environment. Dual-Doppler radar analyses are employed to investigate the structure and kinematics of the convective and stratiform regions. A system with the characteristics of a relatively short-lived squall line in which warm rain processes play a significant role in the production of precipitation is evident. Planetary boundary layer cold-pool production is important in the organization and motion of the system. A trailing stratiform region is evident with a mean updraft-downdraft circulation, but is composed of in situ decaying convective cells. A storm-relative mesoscale cyclonic circulation is also observed within the stratiform cloud. This vortex was maintained by thermodynamically induced midlevel convergence, convectively generated storm-scale circulations, and their interaction with the background monsoon flow.

Keenan, Thomas D.↗

Multiparameter radar and advanced microwave precipitation radiometer observations of tropical convection

Combinations of both active and passive microwave sensors have been proposed for experiments such as the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM). During the summer 1991 Convection and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment (CaPE) in central Florida, both cold- and warm-rain precipitation processes were studied with the NCAR CP-2 multiparameter radar, operating at 3 and 10 GHz. The Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), which operates at 10.7, 19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz, was flown aboard NASA's ER-2 high-altitude aircraft over storms being scanned by the CP-2 radar. Top-of-atmosphere multifrequency TB from the AMPR is presented along with coincident CP-2 radar observations. Joint analysis of both radar and radiometer data sets allows refinement of new and existing precipitation retrieval techniques which will utilize the multifrequency TB from an integrated spaceborne microwave radiometer/radar system.

Vivekanandan, J.↗

Numerical Simulations of TRMM LBA, TOGA, COARE, GATE, ARM and PRESTORM Convective Systems: Sensitivity tests on Microphysical Processes

The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was utilized to examine the behavior and response of simulated deep tropical cloud systems that occurred over the west Pacific warm pool region, the Atlantic ocean and the central United States. The periods chosen for simulation were convectively active periods during TOGA-COARE (February 22 1993, December 11-17, 1992; December 19-28, February 9-13, 1993), GATE (September 4, 1974), LBA (January 26 and February 23, 1998), ARM (1997 IOP) and PRESTORM (June 11, 1985). We will examine differences in the microphysics for both warm rain and ice processes (evaporation /sublimation and condensation/ deposition), Q1 (Temperature), Q2 (Water vapor) and Q3 (momentum both U and V) budgets for these three convective events from different large-scale environments. The contribution of stratiform precipitation and its relationship to the vertical shear of the large-scale horizontal wind will also be examined. New improvements to the GCE model (i.e., microphysics: 4ICE two moments and 3ICE one moment; advection schemes) as well as their sensitivity to the model results will be discussed. Preliminary results indicated that various microphysical schemes could have a major impact on stratiform formation as well as the size of convective systems. However, they do not change the major characteristics of the convective systems, such as: arc shape, strong rotational circulation on both ends of system, heavy precipitation along the leading edge of systems.

Tao, W.-K.↗

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model: Model Description and Its Application for Studying the TOGA COARE and GATE Convective Systems

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was utilized in two and three dimensions in order to examine the behavior and response of simulated deep tropical cloud systems occurred in west Pacific warm pool region and Atlantic ocean. The periods chosen for simulation were convectively active period over the TOGA-COARE IFA (19-27 December 1992) and GATE (September 1 to 7, 1974). The TOGA COARE IFA period was also in the framework of the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) WG4 case 2. We will examine the differences between the microphysics (warm rain and ice processes, evaporation/sublimation and condensation/deposition), Q1 (Temperature) and Q2 (Water vapor) budgets between these two convective events occurred in different large-scale environments. The contribution of stratiform precipitation and its relationship to the vertical shear of the large-scale horizontal wind will also be examined. The results from GCSS model intercomparsion will be presented. The new improvements (i.e., microphysics, cloud radiation interaction, surface processes and numerical advection scheme) of the GCE model as well as their sensitivity to the model results will be discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Convective Systems during the South China Sea Monsoon Onset and Post-Onset Simulated by a Cloud Resolving Model Using SCSMEX Data

South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX, 1998), one of several major TRMM field experiments, has successfully obtained a wealth of information and observational data on the summer monsoon onset and evolution in the South China Sea region. The primary goal of the experiment is to provide a better understanding of the key physical processes for the onset and maintenance of the monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China leading to improved predictions. In this paper, our objective is to investigate the major physical and microphysical processes involved in the convective systems that developed during the onset and post-onset of the South China Sea monsoon - for both the similarities and differences between these two phases. There are two episodes simulated in this study, one of the onset period (May 18-26, 1998) and one of the post-onset period (June 2-11, 1998). The focus of this paper is to study four major aspects between these two different episodes. First, characteristics of rainfall such as rainfall amount and occurrence in the convective and stratiform regions are investigated, as well as the propagation of convective systems. The numerical precipitation fields are also validated against both the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) soundings and Precipitation Radar (PR) observations. Second, the domain-averaged heat and moisture budgets are analyzed to comprehend the essential roles played by physical processes such as the large-scale forcing and latent heat flux. Third, the microphysical processes associated with warm rain or ice are also closely examined during these two episodes. Finally, vertical distributions of Q1 and Q2 budgets are presented to perform a detailed discussion on the energy and moisture cascade in the vertical direction.

Shie, C.-L.↗

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes to Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud-resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution on the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, South China Sea, eastern Atlantic, South America and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have a good sampling of cloud statistics.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Sensitivity of Precipitation Processes to Microphysics and Resolution in a Cloud-Resolving Model

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is used to examine the impact of various microphysical schemes, and vertical and horizontal resolution on the development, intensity and rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems, idealized hurricanes and an ensemble of clouds. The model variables include horizontal and vertical velocities, potential temperature, perturbation pressure, turbulent kinetic energy, and mixing ratios of all water phases (vapor, liquid, and ice). The major characteristics of the GCE model are the explicit representation of warm rain and ice microphysical processes, and their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes, and with surface processes. For idealized hurricane, an axisymmetric version of the GCE model was developed and used successfully to simulate the tropical cyclogenesis process using both a Rankin vortex and saturated air within a specified radius as initial conditions. For mesoscale convective systems, the 3-D version of the GCE model was used to simulate squall lines that developed in the western Pacific, eastern Atlantic and central US. For the cloud ensemble, the GCE model was integrated for several days in order to have good sampling of cloud statistics. In this paper, the sensitivities of hurricane intensity to various microphysical processes and model grid resolution will be examined.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Small-Scale Variability of Large Cloud Drops

Cloud droplet size distribution is one of the most fundamental subjects in cloud physics. Understanding of spatial distribution and small-scale fluctuations of cloud droplets is essential for both cloud physics and atmospheric radiation. For cloud physics, it relates to the coalescence growth of raindrops while for radiation, it has a strong impact on a cloud's radiative properties. Most of the existing cloud radiation and precipitation formation models assume that the mean number of drops with a given radius varies proportionally to volume. The analysis of microphysical data on liquid water drop sizes shows that, for sufficiently small volumes, the number is proportional to the drop size dependent power of the volume. For abundant small drops present, the exponent is 1 as assumed in the conventional approach. However, for rarer large drops, the exponents fall below unity. At small scales, therefore, the mean number of large drops decreases with volume at a slower rate than the conventional approach assumes, suggesting more large drops at these scales than conventional models account for; their impact is consequently underestimated. Size dependent models of spatial distribution of cloud drops that simulate the observed power laws show strong drop clustering, the more so the larger the drops. The degree of clustering is determined by the observed exponents. The strong clustering of large drops arises naturally from the observed power-law statistics. Current theories of photon-cloud interaction and warm rain formation will need radical revision in order to produce these statistics; their underlying equations are unable to yield the observed power law.

Marshak, Alexander↗

The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Hurricane Intensity and Track

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system. It incorporates a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numerics and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. WRF can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At NASA Goddard, four different cloud microphysics options have been implemented into WRF. The performance of these schemes is compared to those of the other microphysics schemes available in WRF for an Atlantic hurricane case (Katrina). In addition, a brief review of previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and processes on the intensity and track of hurricanes is presented and compared against the current Katrina study. In general, all of the studies show that microphysics schemes do not have a major impact on track forecasts but do have more of an effect on the simulated intensity. Also, nearly all of the previous studies found that simulated hurricanes had the strongest deepening or intensification when using only warm rain physics. This is because all of the simulated precipitating hydrometeors are large raindrops that quickly fall out near the eye-wall region, which would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these studies suggested that intensities become unrealistically strong when evaporative cooling from cloud droplets and melting from ice particles are removed as this results in much weaker downdrafts in the simulated storms. However, there are many differences between the different modeling studies, which are identified and discussed.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical.factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosols have a major impact on the dynamics, microphysics, and electrification properties of continental mixed-phase convective clouds. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Such pollution . effects on precipitation potentially have enormous climatic consequences both in terms of feedbacks involving the land surface via rainfall as well as the surface energy budget and changes in latent heat input to the atmosphere. Basically, aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, the warm-rain process, the cold-rain process, cloud-top heights, the depth of the mixed-phase region, and the occurrence of lightning. Recently, many cloud resolution models (CRMs) have been used to examine the role of aerosols on mixed-phase convective clouds. These modeling studies have many differences in terms of model configuration (two- or three-dimensional), domain size, grid spacing (150-3000 m), microphysics (two-moment bulk, simple or sophisticated spectral-bin), turbulence (1st or 1.5 order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)), radiation, lateral boundary conditions (i.e., closed, radiative open or cyclic), cases (isolated convection, tropical or midlatitude squall lines) and model integration time (e.g., 2.5 to 48 hours). Among these modeling studies, the most striking difference is that cumulative precipitation can either increase or decrease in response to higher concentrations of CCN. In this presentation, we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, and results from (CRM) simulations. Note that this presentation is mainly based on a recent paper published in Geophy. Rev. (Tao et al. 2012).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

High Ice Water Content at Low Radar Reflectivity near Deep Convection: Part II. Evaluation of Microphysical Pathways in Updraft Parcel Simulations

The aeronautics industry has established that a threat to aircraft is posed by atmospheric conditions of substantial ice water content (IWC) where equivalent radar reflectivity (Ze) does not exceed 20-30 dBZ and supercooled water is not present; these conditions are encountered almost exclusively in the vicinity of deep convection. Part 1 (Fridlind et al., 2015) of this two-part study presents in situ measurements of such conditions sampled by Airbus in three tropical regions, commonly near 11 km and -43 C, and concludes that the measured ice particle size distributions are broadly consistent with past literature with profiling radar measurements of Z(sub e) and mean Doppler velocity obtained within monsoonal deep convection in one of the regions sampled. In all three regions, the Airbus measurements generally indicate variable IWC that often exceeds 2 gm (exp -3) with relatively uniform mass median area-equivalent diameter (MMD(sub eq) of 200-300 micrometers. Here we use a parcel model with size-resolved microphysics to investigate microphysical pathways that could lead to such conditions. Our simulations indicate that homogeneous freezing of water drops produces a much smaller ice MMD(sub eq) than observed, and occurs only in the absence of hydrometeor gravitational collection for the conditions considered. Development of a mass mode of ice aloft that overlaps with the measurements requires a substantial source of small ice particles at temperatures of about -10 C or warmer, which subsequently grow from water vapor. One conceivable source in our simulation framework is Hallett-Mossop ice production; another is abundant concentrations of heterogeneous ice freezing nuclei acting together with copious shattering of water drops upon freezing. Regardless of the production mechanism, the dominant mass modal diameter of vapor-grown ice is reduced as the ice-multiplication source strength increases and as competition for water vapor increases. Both mass and modal diameter are reduced by entrainment and by increasing aerosol concentrations. Weaker updrafts lead to greater mass and larger modal diameters of vapor-grown ice, the opposite of expectations regarding lofting of larger ice particles in stronger updrafts. While stronger updrafts do loft more dense ice particles produced primarily by raindrop freezing, we find that weaker updrafts allow the warm rain process to reduce competition for diffusional growth of the less dense ice expected to persist in convective outflow.

Reflectivity↗

An Analysis of Coordinated Observations from NOAA's Ronald Brown Ship and G-IV Aircraft in a Landfalling Atmospheric River over the North Pacific During CalWater-2015

To gain a more complete observational understanding of atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the data-sparse open ocean, we used a diverse suite of mobile observing platforms deployed on NOAAs Ronald H. Brown (RHB) research vessel and G-IV research aircraft during the CalWater-2015 field campaign to describe the structure and evolution of a long-lived AR modulated by six frontal waves over the northeastern Pacific on 20-25 January 2015. Satellite observations and reanalysis diagnostics provided synoptic-scale context, illustrating the warm, moist southwesterly airstream within the quasi-stationary AR situated between an upper-level trough and ridge. The AR remained offshore of the U.S. West Coast but made landfall across British Columbia where heavy precipitation fell. Forty-seven rawinsondes launched from the RHB provided a comprehensive thermodynamic and kinematic depiction of the AR, including uniquely documenting an upward intrusion of strong water-vapor transport in the low-level moist southwesterly flow during the passage of frontal waves 2 through 6. A collocated 1290-MHz wind profiler showed an abrupt frontal transition from southwesterly to northerly flow below 1 km MSL coinciding with the tail-end of AR conditions. Shipborne radar and disdrometer observations in the AR uniquely captured key microphysical characteristics of shallow warm rain, convection, and deep mixed-phase precipitation. Novel observations of sea-surface fluxes in a midlatitude AR documented persistent ocean-surface evaporation and sensible-heat transfer into the ocean. The G-IV aircraft flew directly over the ship, with dropsonde and radar spatial analyses complementing the temporal depictions of the AR from the RHB. The AR characteristics varied, depending on the location of the cross section relative to the frontal waves.

atmospheric rivers↗

Distortions of the Rain Distribution With Warming, With and Without Self-Aggregation

We investigate how mesoscale circulations associated with convective aggregation can modulate the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to warming. We quantify changes in the full distribution of rain across radiative-convective equilibrium states in a cloud-resolving model. For a given Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the shift in mean rainfall between disorganized and organized states is associated with a shift in atmospheric radiative cooling, and is roughly analogous to the effect of a 4K SST increase. With rising temperatures, the increase in mean rain rate is insensitive to the presence of organization, while extremes can intensify faster in the aggregated state, leading to a faster amplification in the sporadic nature of rain. When convection aggregates, heavy rain is enhanced by 20%–30% and nonlinear behaviors are observed as a function of SST and strength of aggregation feedbacks. First, radiative- and surface-flux aggregation feedbacks have multiplicative effects on extremes, illustrating a non-trivial sensitivity to the degree of organization. Second, alternating Clausius-Clapeyron and super-Clausius-Clapeyron regimes in extreme rainfall are found as a function of SST, corresponding to varying thermodynamic and dynamic contributions, and a large sensitivity to precipitation efficiency variations in some SST ranges. The potential for mesoscale circulations in amplifying the hydrologic cycle is established. However, these nonlinear distortions question the quantitative relevance of idealized self-aggregation. This calls for a deeper investigation of relationships which capture the coupling between global energetics, aggregation feedbacks and local convection, and for systematic tests of their sensitivity to domain configurations, surface boundary conditions, microphysics, and turbulence schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synchronization of the Recent Decline of East African Long Rains and Northwestern Eurasian Warming

Abstract The East African March–April–May (MAM, “long rains”) precipitation decline in recent decades remains a puzzle marked by various proposed large‐scale drivers. Here, the interannual variability of the long rains and their recent drying trend are examined using global model simulations and observations. Comparison of a control simulation and re‐initialized simulations in which land‐surface feedback is suppressed shows that much of the long rains deficit experienced between 1980 and 2014 is synchronized with the warming of the Northwestern Eurasian landmass. In agreement with the modeling results, multiple observational data sets reveal a strong negative correlation between MAM mean East African rainfall amount and the surface temperature over Northwestern Eurasia. Idealized simulations further indicate that warming in Northwestern Eurasia weakens the regional Hadley Cell and diverts the monsoonal transport of moisture away from Eastern Africa toward Europe and southern Africa, highlighting the role of remote land surface warming on the observed precipitation decline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Internal Climate Variability Obscures Future Freezing Rain Changes Despite Global Warming Trend

Abstract Although numerous studies have projected changes in freezing rain under future climate conditions, the internal variability of freezing rain remains poorly quantified. Here, we introduce a framework utilizing a novel machine‐learning algorithm to diagnose freezing rain in reanalysis and climate model simulations. By employing multivariate quantile mapping, we decompose the projected freezing rain trend into contributions from changes in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, which helps separate the forced response from internal climate variability. Our finding reveals a notable decrease in freezing rain occurrence in most areas. Despite a substantial temperature increase, internal variability overshadows climate forcing across a large portion of the eastern United States until about 2050. This insight has implications for practitioners, suggesting that the observed freezing rain frequency climatology continues to provide a relevant baseline for decision‐making in the near term. However, longer‐term design and adaptation plans should consider the projected changes in these regions.

Zhuang, Haoyu (Richard) [Department of Atmospheric↗