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DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Event Explosive Seismic Source for the 2022 M w 6.3 Hunga Tonga Submarine Volcanic Eruption

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai submarine volcano on 15 January 2022 produced a variety of geophysical responses, including a significant seismic signal. We study the seismic source process of this event by inverting for moment tensors (MTs) using regional surface waves (Rayleigh, Love). By comparing inversion results for the eruption with eight nearby earthquakes, we show that it is possible to discriminate MT source types. Our inversion yields a shallow explosive source for the eruption and reveals the importance of trade-offs among depth, magnitude, and source type. We illustrate these trade-offs by representing the misfit variations over the eigenvalue lune. Finally, we invert for the source-time function of the sequence of explosions that occurred in the first minutes of the eruption. The multi-event source-time function comprises four subevents spanning ~270 s, with a total magnitude estimate of M w 6.34 ± 0.10.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geochronology of Cambrian Sedimentary and Volcanic Rocks in the Illinois Basin: Defining the Illinois Aulacogen

The Wabash #1 well, drilled for the Wabash CarbonSAFE Project and located in Vigo County, Indiana, USA, was drilled in early 2020 as a stratigraphic test well to characterize and evaluate the basal Cambrian Mt. Simon Sandstone for carbon dioxide storage (TD=8750 ft; 2667 m). The Wabash #1 well is located along the eastern flank of a newly interpreted Cambrian aulacogen that occurs in western Indiana and eastern Illinois. Here we present 938 new detrital zircon U-Pb ages (LA-ICPMS) from early Cambrian sandstones sampled near the base of the well. A basalt lava flow was penetrated at ~8530 ft (2600 m) and has an 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age of 525.03 +/- 1.10 Ma, which represents the first known Cambrian crust in the Illinois Basin. The two sandstone samples from beneath the basalt are dominated by zircons derived from the Midcontinent Granite-Rhyolite terrane. The sandstone samples from above the basalt reflect a mixture of these locally derived Mazatzal and Granite-Rhyolite terrane zircons, but also distal Archean, Grenville, and Yavapai zircons. Each sample has small numbers of Cambrian zircons, which is consistent with those in basal Cambrian sandstones in other deep wells to the west. These early Cambrian detrital zircons and early Cambrian age of the basalt, combined with sediment thickness patterns permit the interpretation of the Illinois aulacogen, which formed during the final stage of Rodinian rifting.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century

Our paradigm-shifting framework will apply machine learning and perform physical analysis of contemporary volcanoes to develop sound forecasts of extreme eruptions in the 21stcentury and their abrupt drying and cooling impacts on the warming climate. We will also bridge climate data driven regression models and earth system model output to trace teleconnections that exacerbate regional impacts such as Arctic amplification and western US droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century

Focal Areas: Our paradigm-shifting framework will apply machine learning and perform physical analysis of contemporary volcanoes to develop sound forecasts of extreme eruptions in the 21st century and their abrupt drying and cooling impacts on the warming climate. We will also bridge climate data driven regression models and earth system model output to trace teleconnections that exacerbate regional impacts such as Arctic amplification and western US droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Isolated porosity: A Signature of Submarine Volcanism?

In this conference poster, we show that pumice clasts from submarine volcanoes contain more isolated pores than those from volcanoes that erupt on land. Isolated pores are void spaces that are disconnected from the clast's exterior and are unexpected because most pores coalesce in high total porosity pumice. We specifically, explore the presence of isolated pores in clasts from a 2019 eruption of Volcano F, Tonga and suggest that whole-clast cooling in water may help prevent bubble coalesce and preserve isolated pores. Poster presented at the 2025 International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of Earth's Interior Meeting (IAVCEI).

flotation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption

On 15 January 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO 2 . In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models as part of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison Project. Our results show a good model agreement over the climatic outcomes of the eruption, overall indicating a significant negative radiative forcing from the Hunga eruption. The multi-model mean of global instantaneous radiative forcing averaged over 2022–2023 is estimated at −0.19 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), and −0.16 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the surface. Simulations with free-running meteorology and climatological sea surface temperatures and sea ice yield a global mean TOA forcing of −0.14 ± 0.10 W m −2 across two models for the first 2 years, decreasing to −0.09 ± 0.10 W m −2 on average between 2022 and 2027. However, these global values may be underestimated by about 50 %, considering that recent SO 2 injection retrievals suggest nearly twice the amount than the 0.5 Tg-SO 2 used in the protocol. We also find that the contribution from added stratospheric water vapor is minimal and that the injected SO 2 and the resulting formation of stratospheric sulfate dominate the radiative forcing. However, water vapor played a key role in the initial aerosol growth, leading to a stronger negative radiative forcing during the first 6 months after the eruption compared to simulations without water vapor co-injection.

Geosciences↗