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FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target: Development of an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment (Final Report)

This report documents the FY25 Theory and Simulation Performance Target (TSPT) of developing an integrated modeling framework for fusion reactor design and assessment (FREDA). Over Q1-Q4, new capabilities were developed across both plasma and engineering domains and demonstrated on an example representation of a Compact Advanced Tokamak with a Dual Cooled Lead Lithium blanket. This represents a first-of-a-kind demonstration of coupled core-to-wall-to-engineering for a reactor. Self-consistent CESOL workflows were applied to provide core, pedestal, and SOL prediction; new modules were developed for energetic particle stability (FAR3D) and transport (TGLF-EP) analysis; and boundary plasma modeling (SOLPS-ITER, BOUT++/Hermes-3) was expanded to evaluate wall and divertor heat fluxes and interface with engineering thermal analysis. A parameterized CAD tool, TRACER, was expanded to generate medium-fidelity divertor, blanket, and coil geometries; OpenFOAM and Diablo workflows were applied for first-wall and divertor thermal analyses with helium cooling; and reduced-order models were created for high-mass-flux divertor cooling. Magnet multiphysics capabilities were verified between Elmer, Diablo, and a new MFEM-based solver, and workflows enable stress, thermal, and neutron-fluence analysis of TF coils with neutronics-driven heating. Nuclear and blanket analysis workflows were demonstrated, including tritium breeding, transport, and CFD-informed thermo-mechanical assessment. Preliminary multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification workflows were applied to boundary modeling codes and shown to achieve variance reductions with fewer high-fidelity boundary simulations. Key findings highlight the challenges of resolving the ITEP gap to find suitable balance between wall and divertor loads, neutron heating, and practical limits of PFC cooling. Next step priorities are to develop automated workflows to check boundary code convergence and detachment, implement tighter physics-engineering CAD provenance tracking, and inclusion of plasma-material interface models for SLAG and tungsten cracking behavior. Collectively, these developments establish sophisticated capabilities for predictive, multi-fidelity, whole-device modeling that integrates plasma physics, materials, magnets, and nuclear engineering to guide pathways to viable Fusion Pilot Plant design points.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

ACRRF High-Bay Dose Calculations using MCNP (Part A)

Analytical tools and models have been developed as a starting point for directly assessing dose in the Annular Core Research Reactor Facility (ACRRF) due to reactor operation. Key results include peak dose along the Central Cavity (CC) centerline (beamline) at the cavity level, dose throughout the High-Bay (HB), and dose on the facility roof for partially-shielded reactor operation where the 4” insert is removed from the CC Shield Plug (SP). Model results in the beamline are benchmarked against measured doses from passive dosimetry evaluations. Personnel total (neutron and gamma) dose in the ACRRF HB is calculated using Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP). Various CC and SP configurations are analyzed, including unshielded (no SP) and partially shielded (SP installed but 4” insert removed). Novel application of Variance Reduction (VR) techniques, namely the Surface Source Write (SSW) and Surface Source Read (SSR) capabilities in MCNP, enable impressive resolution (in a Monte Carlo modeling sense) of dose throughout much the facility. The VR techniques reduce stochastic error for challenging tallies, with more advanced techniques explored in the companion to this report (Part B) [1]. Supplementary studies (including a verification analysis) and pedagogic evaluations in Part B involve neutron spectra, angular distributions, and the dose impact of facility characteristics. With the SP 4” insert removed and the Lead-Boron (44”) Bucket (LB–44) in the reactor cavity, Total Effective Dose (TED) within the CC beamline is ≈140 rem per 300 MJ of reactor yield (or 3900 rem per hour at 100% Steady-State (SS) power). With no SP (unshielded) and a Free-Field (FF) cavity, TED within the beamline is ≈610 rem per 300 MJ (or 17000 rem per hour at 100% SS power). Due to the predicted collimation of radiation by the reactor pool (and partial SP, if present), beamline dose is much greater than the scattered radiation field surrounding the cavity and reactor tank. Comparisons are made to beamline dosimetry measurements to validate the model. Model predictions agree reasonably well (⪅10%) with measured quantities of neutron fluence, gamma fluence, and spectral metrics. Away from the beamline, comparisons made to previous dose measurements in the HB agreement within an order of magnitude.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

ACRRF High-Bay Dose Calculations using MCNP (Part B)

ACRR radiation outputs through vertical cavities have been documented in two reports. In Part B, the maximum dose from the unshielded central cavity, FREC-II, and NRS is calculated to inform the safety basis. The maximum dose is ≈1430 mrem per 300 MJ, or ≈40,930 rem/hr for full-power operation. A verification study completes the V&V of the modeling. Supplementary studies of variance-reduction techniques, model sensitivities, and aircraft dose above the ACRRF are included.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

CV4Quantum: Reducing the Sampling Overhead in Probabilistic Error Cancellation Using Control Variates

Quasiprobabilistic decompositions (QPDs) play a key role in maximizing the utility of near-term quantum hardware. For example, Probabilistic Error Cancellation (PEC) (an error mitigation technique) and circuit cutting (which enables large quantum computations to be performed on quantum hardware with a limited number of qubits) both involve QPDs. Computations based on QPDs typically incur large sampling overheads that grow exponentially with the number of error-terms mitigated or number of circuit-cuts employed, limiting their practical feasibility. In this work, we adapt the control variates variance reduction technique from the statistics literature in order to reduce the sampling overhead in QPD-based computations. We demonstrate our method using simulation experiments that mimic a realistic PEC scenario. In our experiments, we observed a more than 50% reduction in the number of samples needed to achieve a given precision, in more than 50% of the PEC-based estimations performed in the study when using our approach. We discuss how future research on constructing good control variates can lead to even stronger sampling overhead reduction.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Monte Carlo Simulation of Nonlinear Radiation Induced Plasmas

A Monte Carlo simulation model for radiation induced plasmas with nonlinear properties due to recombination was, employing a piecewise linearized predict-correct iterative technique. Several important variance reduction techniques were developed and incorporated into the model, including an antithetic variates technique. This approach is especially efficient for plasma systems with inhomogeneous media, multidimensions, and irregular boundaries. The Monte Carlo code developed has been applied to the determination of the electron energy distribution function and related parameters for a noble gas plasma created by alpha-particle irradiation. The characteristics of the radiation induced plasma involved are given.

Wang, B. S.↗

Signal enhancement filters

Designed to smooth digital output of radar tracking system, two filters prevent noise-induced inaccuracies and result in input/output noise-variance reduction on order of 10:1. One filter is special purpose device with limited arithmetic-logic unit, and other is true programmable microprocessor.

Killen, H. B.↗

Microprocessor realizations of range rate filters

The performance of five digital range rate filters is evaluated. A range rate filter receives an input of range data from a radar unit and produces an output of smoothed range data and its estimated derivative range rate. The filters are compared through simulation on an IBM 370. Two of the filter designs are implemented on a 6800 microprocessor-based system. Comparisons are made on the bases of noise variance reduction ratios and convergence times of the filters in response to simulated range signals.

Source record↗

Waveform inversion of mantle Love waves: The born seismogram approach

Normal mode theory, extended to the slightly laterally heterogeneous Earth by the first-order Born approximation, is applied to the waveform inversion of mantle Love waves (200-500 sec) for the Earth's lateral heterogeneity at l=2 and a spherically symmetric anelasticity (Q sub mu) structure. The data are from the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN). The l=2 pattern is very similar to the results of other studies that used either different methods, such as phase velocity measurements and multiplet location measurements, or a different data set, such as mantle Rayleigh waves from different instruments. The results are carefully analyzed for variance reduction and are most naturally explained by heterogeneity in the upper 420 km. Because of the poor resolution of the data set for the deep interior, however, a fairly large heterogeneity in the transition zones, of the order of up to 3.5% in shear wave velocity, is allowed. It is noteworthy that Love waves of this period range can not constrain the structure below 420 km and thus any model presented by similar studies below this depth are likely to be constrained by Rayleigh waves (spheroidal modes) only.

Tanimoto, T.↗

Measurements of mantle wave velocities and inversion for lateral heterogeneity and anisotropy. I - Analysis of great circle phase velocities

The global lateral heterogeneity of the upper mantle is investigated using the classical Fourier-transform method of Sato(1958) and IDA/GDSN data from 25 1980 earthquakes. The great-circle phase velocities of 200 Love and 250 Rayleigh 100-330-sec-period fundamental-mode wave paths are determined and interpreted in terms of regional phase-velocity variation, using additional data on surface tectonics to extrapolate odd-harmonic information from the even-harmonic data. The results are presented in extensive tables, maps, and graphs. Regionalized inversion using the seven-region model of Okal (1977) is found to give maximum variance reductions of 65 percent for Love waves and 85 percent for Rayleigh waves, compared to 60 and 90 percent for l(max) = 2 inversion. Significant interregion differences are found in the regionalized Love-wave phase velocities.

Nakanishi, I.↗

Waveform inversion of mantle Love waves - The Born seismogram approach

Normal mode theory, extended to the slightly laterally heterogeneous earth by the first-order Born approximation, is applied to the waveform inversion of mantle Love waves (200-500 sec) for the earth's lateral heterogeneity at l = 2 and a spherically symmetric anelasticity (Q sub mu) structure. The data are from the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN). The l = 2 pattern is very similar to the results of other studies that used either different methods, such as phase velocity measurements and multiplet location measurements, or a different data set, such as mantle Rayleigh waves from different instruments. The results are carefully analyzed for variance reduction and are most naturally explained by heterogeneity in the upper 420 km. Because of the poor resolution of the data set for the deep interior, however, a fairly large heterogeneity in the transition zones, of the order of up to 3.5 percent in shear wave velocity, is allowed. It is noteworthy that Love waves of this period range can not constrain the structure below 420 km and thus any model presented by similar studies below this depth are likely to be constrained by Rayleigh waves (spheroidal modes) only.

Tanimoto, T.↗

On the evaluation of expected performance cost for partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems

New methods are presented for evaluating the expected performance cost of partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems. When the variances of the process statistics are small, a linearized model of the closed-loop stochastic system is defined for which the expected cost can be evaluated by recursion on a set of purely deterministic difference equations. When the variances of the process statistics are large, the linearized model can be used in the control variate method of variance reduction for reducing the number of sample paths required for effective Monte Carlo estimation.

Bayard, D. S.↗

Optical rate sensor algorithms

Optical sensors, in particular Charge Coupled Device (CCD) arrays, will be used on Space Station to track stars in order to provide inertial attitude reference. Algorithms are presented to derive attitude rate from the optical sensors. The first algorithm is a recursive differentiator. A variance reduction factor (VRF) of 0.0228 was achieved with a rise time of 10 samples. A VRF of 0.2522 gives a rise time of 4 samples. The second algorithm is based on the direct manipulation of the pixel intensity outputs of the sensor. In 1-dimensional simulations, the derived rate was with 0.07 percent of the actual rate in the presence of additive Gaussian noise with a signal to noise ratio of 60 dB.

Uhde-Lacovara, Jo A.↗

Efficiency and discrepancy in the direct simulation methods

The paper reviews the factors that affect the versatility, computational efficiency, and accuracy of the various direct simulation methods that are being applied to problems in rarefied gas dynamics. The quality of the simulation can be affected by the underlying motivation and objectives. The influence of computer hardware developments on the cost-effectiveness is discussed, as are the software factors that influence the speed with which simulation programs can be applied to new problems. Particular attention is given to a novel method that improves the efficiency of the simulation for complex three-dimensional problems. The topical issues of reduced resolution procedures, stored lists, and variance reduction schemes are discussed in some detail.

Bird, G. A.↗

Efficiency and discrepancy in the direct simulation methods

The paper reviews the factors that affect the versatility, computational efficiency, and accuracy of the various direct simulation methods that are being applied to problems in rarefied gas dynamics. The influence of computer hardware developments on the cost-effectiveness is discussed, as are the software factors that influence the speed with which simulation programs can be applied to new problems. Particular attention is given to a novel method that improves the efficiency of the simulation for complex 3D problems. The topical issues of reduced resolution procedures, stored lists, and variance reduction schemes are discussed in some detail.

Bird, G. A.↗

General Monte Carlo reliability simulation code including common mode failures and HARP fault/error-handling

A Monte Carlo Fortran computer program was developed that uses two variance reduction techniques for computing system reliability applicable to solving very large highly reliable fault-tolerant systems. The program is consistent with the hybrid automated reliability predictor (HARP) code which employs behavioral decomposition and complex fault-error handling models. This new capability is called MC-HARP which efficiently solves reliability models with non-constant failures rates (Weibull). Common mode failure modeling is also a specialty.

Platt, M. E.↗

Inclusion of the second Umkehr in the conventional Umkehr retrieval analysis as a means of improving ozone retrievals in the upper stratosphere

The Umkehr method for retrieving the gross features of the vertical ozone distribution requires measurements of the ratio of zenith-sky radiances at two wavelengths in the near-UV region while the solar zenith angle (SZA) changes from 60 to 90 degrees. A Brewer spectrophotometer was used for taking such measurements extending the SZA range down to 96 degrees. Analyzed data from the Spring of 1991 imply that observations at twilight are of great significance in improving ozone retrievals in the upper stratosphere. Judged by the variance reduction for Umkehr layers 9 to 12 (25-30 percent for layer 11) and the increase in separation and amplitude of the averaging kernels for the relevant layers, the ozone retrievals in the upper stratosphere are shown to be in better agreement with climatological means.

Gioulgkidis, Konstantinos↗

Impact of Climatic Variability on Atmospheric Mass Distribution and GRACE-Derived Gravity Fields

During the period we calculated the atmospheric data sets related to its mass and angular momentum distribution. For mass, we determined the various harmonics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, especially the low-order harmonics that are useful in studying the gravitation distribution as will be determined from the GRACE mission. Atmospheric mass is also related to the atmospheric loading on the solid Earth; we cooperated with scientists who needed the atmospheric mass information for understanding its contributions to the overall loading, necessary for vertical and horizontal coordinate estimation. We calculated atmospheric angular momentum from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and 4 operational meteorological centers, based on the motion (wind) terms and the mass (surface pressure) terms. These are associated with motions of the planet, including its axial component causing changes in the length of day, more related to the winds, and the equatorial component related to motions of the pole, more related to the mass. Tasks related to the ocean mass and angular momentum were added to the project as well. For these we have noted the ocean impact on motions of the pole as well as the torque mechanisms that relate the transfer of angular momentum between oceans and solid earth. The activities of the project may be summarized in the following first manuscript written in December 2002, for a symposium that Dr. Salstein attended on Geodynamics. We have continued to assess ocean angular momentum (OAM) quantities derived from bottom pressure and velocity fields estimated with our finite-difference barotropic (single layer) model. Three years of output (1993-95) from a run without any data constraints was compared to output from a corresponding run that was constrained by altimeter data using a Kalman filter and smoother scheme. Respective OAM time series were combined with corresponding atmospheric series and compared to observed polar motion. The constrained OAM series provided slightly better variance reduction than the unconstrained series. Analysis provided a check on the estimation scheme and pointed to further work to improve the determination of OAM using this method. A significant effort was also devoted to quantifying effects of uncertainties in high frequency winds on the mean and seasonal momentum exchange between atmosphere and oceans.

Salstein, David A.↗

On the Exploitation of Sensitivity Derivatives for Improving Sampling Methods

Many application codes, such as finite-element structural analyses and computational fluid dynamics codes, are capable of producing many sensitivity derivatives at a small fraction of the cost of the underlying analysis. This paper describes a simple variance reduction method that exploits such inexpensive sensitivity derivatives to increase the accuracy of sampling methods. Three examples, including a finite-element structural analysis of an aircraft wing, are provided that illustrate an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy for both Monte Carlo and stratified sampling schemes.

Cao, Yanzhao↗