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Accelerating the development of a sustainable bioenergy portfolio through stable isotopes

Bioenergy could help limit global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels while supplying almost a fourth of the world's renewable energy needs by 2050. However, the deployment of bioenergy raises concerns that adoption at meaningful scales may lead to unintended negative environmental consequences. Meanwhile, the full consolidation of a bioenergy industry is currently challenged by a sufficient, resilient, and resource-efficient biomass supply and an effective conversion process. Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of how stable isotope approaches have accelerated the development of a robust bioeconomy by advancing knowledge about environmental sustainability, feedstock development, and biological conversion. We show that advances in stable isotope research have generated crucial information to (1) gain mechanistic insight into the potential of bioenergy crops to mitigate climate change as well as their impact on water and nutrient cycling; (2) develop high-yielding, resilient feedstocks that produce high-value bioproducts in planta; and (3) engineer microbes to enhance feedstock conversion to bioenergy products. Further, we highlight knowledge gaps that could benefit from future research facilitated by stable isotope approaches. We conclude that advances in mechanistic knowledge and innovations within the field of stable isotopes in cross-disciplinary research actions will greatly contribute to breaking down the barriers to establishing a robust bioeconomy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cortical Proteins and Individual Differences in Cognitive Resilience in Older Adults

Background and objectives: Cognitive resilience is a well-recognized concept, but knowledge gaps about its underlying mechanisms have made it difficult to develop instruments that identify older adults with high or low resilience. We tested whether aggregating cortical peptides associated with cognitive resilience into an index can identify adults with higher or lower cognitive resilience. Methods: We used data from 1,192 older decedents, including annual clinical testing, indices of 10 Alzheimer disease (AD) and related dementia (ADRD) pathologies, and 226 proteotypic peptides measured in the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex. We used linear mixed-effects models to identify peptides that were related to cognitive resilience (i.e., cognitive decline not explained by ADRD pathologies [false discovery rate <0.05]). We aggregated the expression levels of these resilience peptides into a person-specific cognitive resilience index and examined its association with AD clinical and pathologic phenotypes. Results: We constructed a resilience index from 52 of 226 peptides related to cognitive resilience. A higher index was associated with slower cognitive decline (estimate 0.05, SE 0.003, p < 0.001) and slower motor decline (estimate 0.005, SE 0.001, p < 0.001). Most resilience peptides (70%) were specific to cognitive decline, but 30% also provided resilience for motor decline. A higher index was also related to a lower burden of AD pathologies (odds ratio [OR] 0.41, SE 0.01, p < 0.001) and modified the association of AD pathology with cognition in that a higher index modified the negative effects of AD pathology on AD dementia proximate to death (OR 0.70, SE 0.14, p = 0.010). Up to 90% of cognitive resilience peptides were related to AD pathologic phenotypes. Discussion: Cortical proteins may provide some degree of cognitive resilience. These multifunctional proteins also seem to provide resilience to other AD clinical phenotypes and have independent associations with ADRD pathologies. Resilience proteins may be high-value therapeutic targets for drug discovery of interventions that maintain brain health in aging adults via multiple pathways.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Valuing wind as a distributed energy resource: A literature review

As more distributed energy resources are deployed on electric grid systems across the world, it is important to identify, characterize, and quantify the value elements of different types of distributed energy resources so that policymakers, developers, and utilities can make informed energy deployment decisions. This paper focuses on the value of wind energy as a distributed energy resource (i.e., “distributed wind”). Because of a lack of distributed wind-specific valuation studies, in this review we document the current state of distributed energy resource valuation, analyze a wide array of distributed energy resource valuation metastudies, and identify several value elements for which we recommend developing more robust and standardized calculation methodologies for their potential inclusion in distributed wind valuation. These value elements are ancillary services and locational, resilience, reliability, and resource diversity benefits. Furthermore, this work lays the foundation for a future comprehensive framework for distributed wind valuation studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluating the resilience benefits of marine energy in microgrids

Marine energy resources could promote clean energy and resilience of coastal and island microgrids, and thus, these applications are a key future market for marine energy development. To demonstrate these benefits, this paper illustrates how inclusion of wave resources into energy resilience solutions can improve overall grid efficiency and sustainability, as well as maintain electricity supply during grid outages. The paper describes a case study evaluation of the potential to add wave energy to the Moloka'i grid as Hawaii strives to meet a 100% clean energy target. The Microgrid Component Optimization for Resilience tool is used to simulate operation in off-grid conditions and size different combinations of wave, solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, storage, and fuel resources required to meet resilience objectives. This research investigates how including wave resources in a microgrid contributes to reducing or eliminating biofuel generation, producing a zero-greenhouse gas emission profile in the latter case, and avoiding the over-sizing of PV and battery systems to accommodate periods of unavailability or high demand. Insight from this paper supports the value proposition of wave resources for future markets and informs the relationship between marine generators and microgrids or isolated grids.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Energy Storage Impacts in Resilience Hubs and Other Critical Infrastructure: An Assessment Guide for Developers and Practitioners

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) deployed behind the meter at resilience hubs and other critical infrastructure can provide economic and operational value during normal operations—such as lower and more predictable energy costs—as well as resilience and security benefits during power disruptions by maintaining essential services. However, existing evaluation approaches tend to focus narrowly on engineering performance or rely on broad socio-economic frameworks that are not well suited to behind-the-meter storage. As a result, developers, utilities, and funders often lack consistent methods for defining success, quantifying benefits, and comparing outcomes across projects. This report presents a practitioner-oriented impact assessment framework for evaluating behind-the-meter BESS at resilience hubs and critical infrastructure facilities. The framework is organized into five iterative components—developing an action plan, defining project goals, identifying metrics, collecting data and measuring outcomes, and reporting and using results—and includes a structured metric architecture spanning six impact categories. Designed for real-world constraints such as limited staffing and uneven data availability, the framework was developed, applied, and refined through real projects, and is illustrated with case studies across diverse deployment contexts.

Impact Assessment↗

Irrigation Modernization Task 4: Accelerating Energy Solutions (FY2022 Final Report)

This report offers insights on energy solutions for irrigation modernization that serve the needs of farmers as well as residents and industry in the local community. Solutions are found in the irrigation districts where local generation from renewable energy sources – solar, hydro, and wind – can be combined with energy storage and customer loads. These combined resources configured in microgrids can lower costs during peak loads and provide resiliency by maintaining electricity supply during outages. The goal of this project, as stated in the FY2022 AOP, is to promote realization of energy solutions that are tailored to physical location, community, infrastructure, and energy value streams. Further, it is to develop examples of how to increase value of, and overcome barriers to, energy solutions in the context of irrigation modernization. In pursuit of that goal, the project looked at options for: 1) Reducing the cost of energy consumed in irrigation systems, 2) Increasing the revenue from surplus power generation, and 3) Deploying new power generation configured as part of a local microgrid. Potential solutions to reducing energy costs and increasing surplus power revenue revolve around addressing regulatory and legal constraints tied to how power is purchased by and sold to the irrigator or irrigation district. Some headway was made in identifying barriers and ways to push utilities to be more accommodating to distributed energy sources; however, for the most part, real progress hinges on changes at the regulatory and legislative level. Deployment of local, renewable generation systems can be implemented provided the economics of the project and the location are favorable. In concert with Famers Conservation Alliance and Energy Trust of Oregon, a number of approaches were studied in the past year, including off-grid solar powered pumps, grid-tied community solar projects, and in-conduit canal hydropower systems. Ultimately three viable projects were identified: 1) North Unit Irrigation District/City of Redmond, Oregon Critical Facility Microgrid – offers combined in-conduit hydro and solar power generation. 2) Wallowa County/Joseph, Oregon Irrigation System Upgrades – centered on upgrades to a non-powered dam that will add a turbine as well as in-conduit power in canal feeders downstream. 3) Medford, Oregon Wastewater Treatment Plant Biogas Cogeneration System – centered on building out biogas storage and grid upgrades to power the plant, sell excess power, and provide emergency backup power (supplanting a diesel generator). Each of these projects has characteristics that broaden the understanding of the value of microgrids employing renewable energy to achieve resiliency and net-zero carbon goals. The first two projects are centered on new hydropower systems. Although the Medford project is only tangentially tied to an irrigation district, it was selected for study analysis as it was the only one mature enough (with sufficient data) to complete an analysis within this project year. Thus, we chose to move forward developing a case study, in concert with the Community Water-Power Resilience project, to demonstrate a method for evaluating such projects. Essentially, this case study serves as a template for studies to be carried out next year that more directly involve irrigation system hydropower, e.g., the project at the Wallowa County/Joseph, Oregon Irrigation System. Lastly, it is recognized that the locations and case studies in this report are all located in Oregon. We recognize this as a limitation. While the intent is not to ignore other states or regions, this result is driven by the fact that we have cultivated a collaboration with non-profit entities in Oregon that focus on these topics – Farmers Conservation Alliance and Energy Trust of Oregon. These partners were central to identifying projects that may be good fits for this program. A goal in the coming year is to establish collaboration with entities in other states/regions that, similarly, can connect us to potential projects in their geographic area. The potential benefits from the WPTO’s support for demonstration projects as energy solutions in irrigation districts include: (1) Alternative power supplies for communities and farms using renewable, carbon-free energy resources, (2) Cost savings for electricity for communities and farms, (3) Resiliency of power supplies for critical loads when electricity from the grid is not available, (4) Resiliency of power supplies for critical infrastructure in the event of catastrophic events, and (5) Demonstration of irrigation modernization projects that provide resilience and a reduced carbon footprint to irrigation districts and nearby communities. These deployments can serve as vanguards/archetypes spurring similar projects in other districts and states.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Dynamic, resilient sensing system for automatic cyber-attack neutralization

An industrial asset may have monitoring nodes that generate current monitoring node values. An abnormality detection computer may determine that an abnormal monitoring node is currently being attacked or experiencing fault. A dynamic, resilient estimator constructs, using normal monitoring node values, a latent feature space (of lower dimensionality as compared to a temporal space) associated with latent features. The system also constructs, using normal monitoring node values, functions to project values into the latent feature space. Responsive to an indication that a node is currently being attacked or experiencing fault, the system may compute optimal values of the latent features to minimize a reconstruction error of the nodes not currently being attacked or experiencing a fault. The optimal values may then be projected back into the temporal space to provide estimated values and the current monitoring node values from the abnormal monitoring node are replaced with the estimated values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Grid Resilient, Self-Powered, Fuel Flexible, High Efficiency Heating System (Final Report)

The Grid Independent High Efficiency System (GIHES) delivers a heating system that operates free from the power grid and provides ultra-low emissions and high efficiency heating for residential and commercial buildings. The project demonstrated two weeks of continuous grid independent operation of a storage water heater equipped with a powered damper. The Thermoelectric Generator (TEG) integrated GIHES technology revolutionizes heating systems to provide grid resilient hot water production, while delivering significant value to the end user by eliminating impacts of power interruption and enhancing comfort, convenience and productivity. The system maximizes the thermal-to-electric conversion efficiency by optimizing location and orientation of the TEGs and durability while lowering system costs. The TEGs generate enough power to charge a battery and run the storage water heater unit with a powered damper uninterrupted by providing the required parasitic electrical power for start-up, shutdown and during idling. Several TEGs were analytically and experimentally evaluated based on the size, surface area and the power being generated before designing and fabricating a complete multi-TEG assembly for integration with the water heater. The GIHES technology can be extended to boilers, furnaces and tankless water heaters and integrated with heat pump to further increase the overall equipment efficiency. The technology has the potential to reduce the amount of dispatch power and peak power plant operation. An advanced burner was designed, developed and 3D printed for fuel flexible operation. The burner was designed to enable tighter integration with TEGs for potentially higher TEG output, should this be necessary. A bench-scale test rig to perform testing of a 200,000 Btu/h burner and capable of handling up to 10% H2 (by volume) was setup at GTI’s laboratory with appropriate safety and controls to ensure smooth and safe operation. Testing of the 3D burner showed < 5 ppm NOx emissions can be achieved for the entire firing range and with different levels of hydrogen blends with natural gas. The burner will enable a more integrated TEG-burner module design for improved system performance, should this be required in the future. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) of the TEG integrated with the water heaters was performed. The testing data and the power output were used to develop the TEA. The analysis for the storage unit with damper showed that the TEG integrated system costs $95. This is much lower than a one-time charge needed to wire and install dedicated power. Discussions with TEG manufacturers and OEM’s will provide more detailed information and methods to further lower these costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Back to Basics: First Principles of HRA

Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) continues to suffer from a myriad of technical gaps in its foundations. Core issues have been widely discussed but remain largely unaddressed, although the path taken to this point was paved with good intentions. Now, while this characterization may seem dramatic it is not intended to throw doubt onto HRA as a discipline or to diminish the value it has on increasing safety and resilience in nuclear power. Rather, it is intended to communicate that HRA has some serious challenges and is desperately in need of a critical evaluation. To quote Dougherty [1], “the misrepresentations that will undoubtedly arise may serve to provoke the necessary creativity.” What bears noting is that in the last thirty years since Alan Swain declared that “no adequate HRA had ever been done,” there has been little effort to correct the issues he highlighted. Human factors practice is still poorly implemented, many complex systems are fundamentally incompatible with reliable human performance, and there remains poor foundational support for many of the assumptions within HRA. We propose three categories of issues in HRA, philosophical, theoretical, and empirical and potential solutions to these issues.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Security Enhancement of Network Constraint Grid-Edge Energy Management System

Network constrained grid edge energy management system (EMS) provides economic solution for active and reactive power dispatch of distributed energy resources (DERs) at the grid edge level. Grid edge EMS ensures secure interconnection of a circuit segment to the distribution system by maintaining grid code requirements (e.g. IEEE 1547–2018). Grid edge EMS is dependent on communication to receive load measurement, which brings a risk of unobservable false data injection attacks (FDIAs). To mitigate the risk, this paper proposes a framework to enhance resilient operation of grid edge EMS by detecting the unobservable FDIAs on loads and replacing them with forecasted values. In this work, a two-step detection algorithm is proposed. In first step, conventional residual based algorithm is deployed. Autoencoder (AE) based data driven mechanism is included in second step to detect the presence of unobservable FDIAs. After ensuring the presence of FDIA, its specific location is detected by checking the maximum residue values till the predefined threshold value is reached. Detected false data injected loads are then replaced with forecasted load values following long-short term memory (LSTM) based forecast to ensure resilient performance of grid edge EMS in the presence of attacks. This proposed security enhancement framework for grid edge EMS is evaluated in IEEE 13 bus system with three integrated DERs. Numerical simulation shows the validation of the proposed framework by reducing voltage violation in real operation of grid edge EMS.

cyber attack detection↗

Direct-DC Power in Buildings: Identifying the Best Applications Today for Tomorrow’s Building Sector

Driven by the increased use of direct current (DC) sources (photovoltaics, battery storage) and DC end-use devices (electronics, solid-state lighting, efficient motors), DC power distribution in buildings and DC microgrids have been proposed as a way to achieve greater efficiency, cost savings, and resiliency in a transitioning building sector.Despite these important benefits, several market and technological barriers inhibit the development of DC distribution, and the market for DC in buildings is still largely in the demonstration phase. Therefore, to jumpstart this technology, a clear path forward must emerge at this early stage of deployment. The goal of this paper is to define specific end-use cases for which DC distribution in buildings is a value proposition today by defining clear efficiency and resiliency benefits while addressing barriers to implementation.The paper begins with a technology and market assessment of DC distribution equipment, end uses, and technology standards. That is followed by results from an expert elicitation of DC power and building end-use professionals (e.g., electrical designers, building operators, engineers) and reports on-site visits and lessons learned from successful (and less successful) field deployments of DC distribution projects in North America. We present specific adoption pathways at the community and building level that can be implemented today, and evaluate them using qualitative and quantitative metrics, such as technology and market readiness, energy savings, and resiliency.

Vossos, Evangelos↗

Direct-DC Power in Buildings: Identifying the Best Applications Today for Tomorrow’s Building Sector

Driven by the increased use of direct current (DC) sources (photovoltaics, battery storage) and DC end-use devices (electronics, solid-state lighting, efficient motors), DC power distribution in buildings and DC microgrids have been proposed as a way to achieve greater efficiency, cost savings, and resiliency in a transitioning building sector. Despite these important benefits, several market and technological barriers inhibit the development of DC distribution, and the market for DC in buildings is still largely in the demonstration phase. Therefore, to jumpstart this technology, a clear path forward must emerge at this early stage of deployment. The goal of this paper is to define specific end-use cases for which DC distribution in buildings is a value proposition today by defining clear efficiency and resiliency benefits while addressing barriers to implementation. The paper begins with a technology and market assessment of DC distribution equipment, end uses, and technology standards. That is followed by results from an expert elicitation of DC power and building end-use professionals (e.g., electrical designers, building operators, engineers) and reports on-site visits and lessons learned from successful (and less successful) field deployments of DC distribution projects in North America. We present specific adoption pathways at the community and building level that can be implemented today, and evaluate them using qualitative and quantitative metrics, such as technology and market readiness, energy savings, and resiliency.

building-level electrical distribution↗

Graph-Theoretic Approaches to Quantifying Power System Resiliency

Although gaining growing importance, the subject of power system resiliency still lacks a commonly acknowledged metric. As a contribution to solving this complication, in this paper we leverage the concepts of spanning trees and Fiedler value from graph theory to propose two topology-based indices for quantifying the resiliency of power systems. The proposed indices require least information and may be applied to any other flow network, such as water or gas pipeline networks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Linking resource availability to pantropical forest canopy resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance

Statement of purpose: Tropical cyclones are intensifying and occurring at higher latitudes in recent decades, but the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (pace of return to pre-disturbance reference values) of tropical forests to cyclones remains largely unexplored at the pantropical scale. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the role of soil resource availability (i.e., total soil phosphorus concentration) in mediating site-level forest canopy resistance and resilience to cyclones pan-tropically. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m2/day), phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m2/day), as well as concentrations (mg/g) across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan. The dataset zip file includes three data and two metadata files: - The compiled Litterfall Mass Flux data from tropical forests across the globe prior to and after varying tropical cyclone disturbances are provided in Litterfall_Mass.csv. This data file also includes site location, geographical characteristics, elevation, soil phosphorus concentration, geology, and several variables related to each tropical cyclone disturbance. - The compiled Litterfall Nitrogen and Phosphorus Flux data from tropical forests across the globe prior to and after varying tropical cyclone disturbances are provided in Litterfall_Nutrients.csv. This data file also includes site location, geographical characteristics, elevation, soil phosphorus concentration, geology, and several variables related to each tropical cyclone disturbance. - Tropical cyclone track data compiled from HURDAT2 and IBTrACS databases and used as input in the HURRECON model (https://github.com/hurrecon-model/HurreconR) to generate wind data is provided in hurdat2-1851-2019-052520.txt. - The metadata file (Metadata_Meta-analysis_Litterfall-Mass.pdf) has the complete information on each variable included in the Litterfall_Mass.csv dataset, the data sources, and data processing information. - The metadata file (Metadata_Meta-analysis_Litterfall-Nutrients.pdf) has the complete information on each variable included in the Litterfall_Nutrients.csv dataset, the data sources, and data processing information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Operational Resilience of Nuclear-Renewable Integrated-Energy Microgrids

The increasing prevalence and severity of wildfires, severe storms, and cyberattacks is driving the introduction of numerous microgrids to improve resilience locally. While distributed energy resources (DERs), such as small-scale wind and solar photovoltaics with storage, will be major components in future microgrids, today, the majority of microgrids are backed up with fossil-fuel-based generators. Small modular reactors (SMRs) can form synergistic mix with DERs due to their ability to provide baseload and flexible power. The heat produced by SMRs can also fulfill the heating needs of microgrid consumers. This paper discusses an operational scheme based on distributed control of flexible power assets to strengthen the operational resilience of SMR-DER integrated-energy microgrids. A framework is developed to assess the operational resilience of SMR-DER microgrids in terms of system adaptive real-power capacity quantified as a response area metric (RAM). Month-long simulation results are shown with a microgrid developed in a modified Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)-30 bus system. The RAM values calculated along the operational simulation reflect the system resilience in real time and can be used to supervise the microgrid operation and reactor’s autonomous control.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Resilient buildings for fire-adapted landscapes: EE and flexible loads integrated with solar and storage microgrids

Energy efficiency (EE) and flexible loads can be part of a resilient buildings packagewhen they are combined with solar and storage in a clean energy microgrid to reduce the carbonfootprint of buildings and enable resilience to extreme events. Recent large wildfires and an emerging understanding of the fire-adapted landscapes in the American West underscore the urgency of work towards scaling and commercializing these systems. For example, a recent power shutoff in Northern California (October 9-12, 2019) resulted in 738k customers disconnected at the peak of the outage and is emblematic of challenges to come. Our paper reports on insights from a clean energy microgrid deployment pilot that integrates a 50 kWAC PV array, a 109 kW / 174 kWh battery system, switchgear to safely isolate from the regional power system, and communicating controllers for HVAC and refrigeration. The project will be commissioned in May 2020 and is sited at a critical infrastructure site in rural Northern California – in this case a gasoline station with convenience store. Our experience and results shed light on capabilities of integrated microgrids to provide value to customers during blue sky conditions and resilience during black sky days with high fire risk, and what opportunities and barriers exist for scaling these integrated microgrid systems in the near term. We use a simulation model to estimate how EE and flexibility can extend the run time of solar and storage, improving the reliability of power at critical sites.

Alstone, Peter↗

A valuation framework for customers impacted by extreme temperature-related outages

Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. In conclusion, these findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗