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The presentation is for general audiences to provide insight and understanding on NASA's lunar exploration plans, objectives for in situ resource utilization, and currently funded instruments and orbital/surface missions.
The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.
The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.
Current plans for practical missions leading to a sustained human presence on our Moon and Mars rely on utilizing their in situ resources. Initially, resource availability must be assessed followed by the development of economically acceptable and technically feasible extractive processes. In regard to metals processing and fabrication, the lower gravity level on the Moon (0.125 g) and Mars (0.369 g) will dramatically change the presently accepted hierarchy of materials in terms of specific properties, a factor which must be understood and exploited. Furthermore, significant changes are expected in the behavior of liquid metals during processing. In metal casting, for example, mold filling and associated solidification processes have to be reevaluated. Finally, microstructural development and therefore material properties, presently being documented through ongoing research in microgravity science and applications, needs to be understood and scaled to the reduced gravity environments. These and other issues are addressed in this paper.
The Risk-controlled Expansion Planning with Distributed Resources (REPAIR) is an innovative tool to support decisions around utility grid planning to prevent and mitigate the impact of outages caused by routine equipment failures (reliability) or by extreme events (resilience), such as storms, earthquakes or wildfires that long term interruption of service. REPAIR is a risk-based optimization and decision-making model allowing informed and transparent "cost vs risk" decisions regarding infrastructural planning of electric utilities. The model considers long-term resilience and reliability planning strategies that rely on traditional infrastructure upgrade (e.g. circuit hardening, reinforcement, new substations, etc.) or new investment alternatives, such as DERs.
Here, this study develops projections of future spending and savings from electricity efficiency programs funded by electric utility customers in the United States through 2030 based on three scenarios. Our analysis relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, demand-side management and integrated resource plans, and regulatory decisions. The three scenarios represent a range of potential outcomes given the policy environment at the time of the study and uncertainties in the broader economic and state policy environment in each state. We project spending to increase to $8.6 billion in 2030 in the medium scenario, about a 45 percent increase relative to 2016 spending. In the high case, annual spending increases to $11.1 billion in 2030 and remains relatively flat in the low case ($6.8 billion in 2030). Our analysis suggests that electricity efficiency programs funded by utility customers will continue to impact load growth significantly at least through 2030, as savings as a percent of retail sales are forecast at 0.7 percent in the medium scenario and 0.98 percent in the high scenario.
The primary objectives of the Mars Exploration program are to collect data for planetary science in a quest to answer questions related to Origins, to search for evidence of extinct and extant life, and to expand the human presence in the solar system. The public and political engagement that is critical for support of a Mars exploration program is based on all of these objectives. In order to retain and to build public and political support, it is important for NASA to have an integrated Mars exploration plan, not separate robotic and human plans that exist in parallel or in sequence. The resolution stemming from the current architectural review and prioritization of payloads may be pivotal in determining whether NASA will have such a unified plan and retain public support. There are several potential scientific and technological links between the robotic-only missions that have been flown and planned to date, and the robotic + human missions that will come in the future. Taking advantage of and leveraging those links are central to the idea of a unified Mars exploration plan. One such link is in situ resource utilization (ISRU) as an enabling technology to provide consumables such as fuels, oxygen, sweep and utility gases from the Mars atmosphere. ISRU for propellant production and for generation of life support consumables is a key element of human exploration mission plans because of the tremendous savings that can be realized in terms of launch costs and reduction in overall risk to the mission. The Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) Enterprise has supported ISRU technology development for several years, and is funding the MIP and PROMISE payloads that will serve as the first demonstrations of ISRU technology for Mars. In our discussion and presentation at the workshop, we will highlight how the PROMISE ISRU experiment that has been selected by HEDS for a future Mars flight opportunity can extend and enhance the science experiments on board.
Energy storage is a leading option to enhance the resource adequacy contribution of solar energy. Detailed analysis of the capacity credit of solar energy and energy storage is limited in part due to the data intensive and computationally complex nature of probabilistic resource adequacy assessments. This paper presents a simple algorithm for calculating the capacity credit of energy-limited resources that, due to the low computational and data needs, is well suited to exploratory analysis. Validation against benchmarks based on probabilistic techniques shows that it can yield similar insights. The method is used to evaluate the impact of different solar and storage configurations, particularly with respect to the strategy for coupling storage and solar photovoltaic systems. Furthermore, application of the method to a case study of utilities in Florida, where solar is rapidly growing and demand peaks in the winter and summer, demonstrates that it can improve on rules of thumb used in practice by some utilities. If storage is required to charge only from solar, periods of high demand driven by cold weather events accompanied by lower solar production can result in a capacity credit of solar and storage that is less than the capacity credit of storage alone.
The Lake Herman watershed in southeastern South Dakota has been selected as one of seven water resources systems in the United States for involvement in the National Model Implementation Program (MIP). MIP is a pilot program initiated to illustrate the effectiveness of existing water resources quality improvement programs. The Remote Sensing Institute (RSI) at South Dakota State University has produced a computerized geographic information system for the Lake Herman watershed. All components necessary for the monitoring and evaluation process were included in the data base. The computerized data were used to produce thematic maps and tabular data for the land cover and soil classes within the watershed. These data are being utilized operationally by SCS resource personnel for planning and management purposes.
The International Space University (ISU) conducted a study of an international program to support human exploration of Mars as its annual Design Project activity during its 1991 summer session in Toulouse, France. Although an ISU Design Project strives to produce an in-depth analysis during the intense 10-week summer session, the International Mars Mission (IMM) project was conducted in a manner designed to provide a learning experience for young professionals working in an unusual multidisciplinary and multinational environment. The breadth of the IMM study exceeds that of most Mars mission studies of the past, encompassing political organization for long-term commitment, multinational management structure, cost analysis, mission architecture, vehicle configuration, crew health, life support, Mars surface infrastructure, mission operations, technology evaluation, risk assessment, scientific planning, exploration, communication networks, and Martian resource utilization. The IMM Final Report has particular value for those seeking insight into the choices made by a multinational group working in an apolitical environment on the problems of international cooperation in space.
The primary objectives of the Mars exploration program are to collect data for planetary science in a quest to answer questions related to Origins, to search for evidence of extinct and extant life, and to expand the human presence in the solar system. The public and political engagement that is critical for support of a Mars exploration program is based on all of these objectives. In order to retain and to build public and political support, it is important for NASA to have an integrated Mars exploration plan, not separate robotic and human plans that exist in parallel or in sequence. The resolutions stemming from the current architectural review and prioritization of payloads may be pivotal in determining whether NASA will have such a unified plan and retain public support. There are several potential scientific and technological links between the robotic-only missions that have been flown and planned to date, and the combined robotic and human missions that will come in the future. Taking advantage of and leveraging those links are central to the idea of a unified Mars exploration plan. One such link is in situ resource utilization (ISRU) as an enabling technology to provide consumables such as fuels, oxygen, sweep and utility gases from the Mars atmosphere.
With the continental United States divided into ten forest and grassland ecosystems, the Ten Ecosystem Study (TES) is designed to investigate the feasibility and applicability of state-of-the-art automatic data processing remote sensing technology to inventory forest, grassland, and water resources by using Land Satellite data. The study will serve as a prelude to a possible future nationwide remote sensing application to inventory forest and rangeland renewable resources. This plan describes project design and phases, the ten ecosystem, data utilization and output, personnel organization, resource requirements, and schedules and milestones.
Atmospheric mining in the outer solar system has been investigated as a means of fuel production for high energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as Helium 3 (3He) and hydrogen can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. Helium 3 and hydrogen (deuterium, etc.) were the primary gases of interest with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses were undertaken to investigate resource capturing aspects of atmospheric mining in the outer solar system. This included the gas capturing rate, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. Additional supporting analyses were conducted to illuminate vehicle sizing and orbital transportation issues. While capturing 3He, large amounts of hydrogen and 4He are produced. With these two additional gases, the potential for fueling small and large fleets of additional exploration and exploitation vehicles exists. Additional aerospacecraft or other aerial vehicles (UAVs, balloons, rockets, etc.) could fly through the outer planet atmospheres, for global weather observations, localized storm or other disturbance investigations, wind speed measurements, polar observations, etc. Deep-diving aircraft (built with the strength to withstand many atmospheres of pressure) powered by the excess hydrogen or helium 4 may be designed to probe the higher density regions of the gas giants. Outer planet atmospheric properties, atmospheric storm data, and mission planning for future outer planet UAVs are presented.
The basic concept for the utilization of LANDSAT ground processing resources is described. Only the steady state activities that support normal ground processing are addressed. This ground segment operations plan covers all processing of the multispectral scanner and the processing of thematic mapper through data acquisition and payload correction data generation for the LANDSAT 4 mission. The capabilities embedded in the hardware and software elements are presented from an operations viewpoint. The personnel assignments associated with each functional process and the mechanisms available for controlling the overall data flow are identified.
Planning in an unknown environment presents a number of challenges: incorrect world models, unpredictable variation in execution, and fixed depletable resources. Productivity in the face of these challenges requires an integrated approach to planning and execution that is capable of accomplishing goals, reacting to variation, and maximizing overall utility. We examine this problem in the context of a Europa Lander concept mission. We model the problem as a hierarchical task network, framing it as a utility maximization problem with a depletable energy resource. Then, we propose a planning and execution framework that responds to feedback using three techniques: flexible execution, periodic replanning, and online parameter estimation and re-goaling. We demonstrate the efficacy of each of these techniques through simulation of a Europa Lander mission, showing higher utility achievement compared to simpler approaches, when presented with variation in energy consumption. We demonstrate that an approach to scheduling and execution that is grounded in decision theory and integrated planning and execution will be an enabling technology for future tightly-constrained planetary surface missions.
The ground test article fabrication and assembly plan was completed by Santek Engineering, Inc. The plan was reviewed and accepted by Rockwell during an on-site visit to the Santek facility. Raw material and hardware orders were placed by Santek in July. Approximately 98% of the raw materials and 10% of the hardware deliveries have been completed. Several material and hardware substitutions were requested by Santek due to no-bid responses from suppliers or excessive costs for limited quantity items. These substitutions were evaluated and approved by Rockwell Engineering and Material and Process and are being incorporated into the drawing package. Santek started fabrication of detail parts in mid-August. Their current resource utilization is at approximately 50% of the planned eventual commitment and is increasing at a rate commensurate with the fabrication and assembly plan. At this writing, Santek's estimate of completion is 03%. During verification testing of the diagonal member joint, in a program funded by Rockwell discretionary funds, the axial load to unlock the joint was found to increase significantly after a few cycles of operation. This was attributed to galling, poor lubrication, and locking pin geometry. A change of materials, lubricant, and modification of the pin geometry reduced the unlocking load and provided repeatability after 50 cycles of operation. This new design is being implemented into the ground test article.
Snow is a significant challenge for photovoltaic (PV) systems at northern latitudes, where the pace of deployment is rapid but snow-related power losses can exceed 30% of annual production. Accurate snow-related power loss estimation methods for utility-scale sites can support snow mitigation strategies, inform resource planning and validate predictive snow-loss models. This study builds on our previous work on inverter-based detection of snow, and its implications for utility-scale power production, by validating the accuracy of our snow-loss method across different PV sites and system designs and highlighting its value in bringing greater visibility to PV plant operations in winter. Our estimation method is both novel and scalable, requiring only standard monitoring data to correlate snow-related losses with meteorological data. As demonstrated here, our validation method involved three main steps: 1) estimation of performance losses for multiple systems by comparing measured inverter data to modeled data; 2) application of a detection framework to identify which performance losses are snow-related; and 3) comparison of snow-related losses among three utility-scale sites differing in tilt angle. Results show that utility-scale systems at higher tilt angles consistently shed snow more quickly/completely than their lower-tilt counterparts. Further, monthly and seasonal snow losses are inversely and non-linearly correlated with tilt angle when normalized for cumulative snowfall. These results are consistent with the findings of previous studies and support the broad applicability of this method to fixed-tilt utility-scale PV systems around the world that routinely experience snow-related performance losses.
The project focused on providing education to large energy customers, with a focus on local governments, to help them better understand and overcome barriers to solar energy adoption that currently exist (or could exist) in utility planning processes and/or within wholesale energy markets. The project team created accessible educational materials — ranging from reports to case studies to webinars — that could connect with stakeholders who rarely engage in these venues, have limited bandwidth to do so, and possess little previous knowledge of these issues. The project team focused on sharing lessons learned and best practices based on the experiences of other local governments and large energy users that have engaged on these issues, including the PJM Cities and Communities Coalition (PJMCCC). The project sought to better connect these customers and other stakeholders to deepen and expand opportunities for them to engage together on these issues, as well as build peer networks to facilitate the exchange of information. The project team held convenings of key partners — such as local governments, developers, regulators, utilities and large solar buyers — to discuss best practices, develop research products to broaden stakeholders’ knowledge base, and to foster these peer networks.