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This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
In this paper, we describe work on extending statistical analysis methods to optical communications links, with a primary focus on intensity modulated, direct detected photon-counting channel utilizing pulse-position-modulation (PPM). We performed analysis on the relationship between bit error rate (BER) requirement, statistical characteristics of the received signal power and noise power, and the coded performance curves. We presented link analysis results with preliminary uncertainty quantifications of signal power and noise power. We used the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Serially Concatenated convolutionally coded Pulse Position Modulation (SCPPM) prototype software [1] to obtain coded performance curves under different operating conditions with varying signal power, background noise power, code rates,and PPM modulation orders. Comparison with traditional, deterministic analysis shows that extra margin needs to be reserved to compensate for the performance losses caused by uncertainties of the link parameters.
Sound production rates of fishes can be used as an indicator for coral reef health, providing an opportunity to utilize long-term acoustic recordings to assess environmental change. As acoustic datasets become more common, computational techniques need to be developed to facilitate analysis of the massive data files produced by long-term monitoring. Machine learning techniques demonstrate an advantage in the identification of fish sounds over manual sampling approaches. Here we evaluated the ability of convolutional neural networks to identify and monitor call patterns for pomacentrids (damselfishes) in a tropical reef region of the western Pacific. A stationary hydrophone was deployed for 39 mo (2014-2018) in the National Park of American Samoa to continuously record the local marine acoustic environment. A neural network was trained—achieving 94% identification accuracy of pomacentrids—to demonstrate the applicability of machine learning in fish acoustics and ecology. The distribution of sound production was found to vary on diel and interannual timescales. Additionally, the distribution of sound production was correlated with wind speed, water temperature, tidal amplitude, and sound pressure level. This research has broad implications for state-of-the-art acoustic analysis and promises to be an efficient, scalable asset for ecological research, environmental monitoring, and conservation planning.
To ensure that new residential air conditioners and heat pumps operate optimally, care must be taken during the initial system design and installation to avoid missteps that immediately degrade a system’s performance. Laboratory and simulation studies have quantified the impact that faults can have on capacity and efficiency. Field studies have demonstrated that installation-related faults are commonplace. However, the national impact of installation-related faults cannot be accurately estimated by only simulating a limited number of homes at several fault levels because of the variety of home characteristics and climates involved. In our analysis, we use an improved residential building stock simulation tool to predict the annual energy increase and additional utility costs resulting from two common installation faults: indoor airflow rate and refrigerant charge level. Our method considers the wide range of building characteristics and climate zones of the U.S. housing stock. We use existing field data to develop fault intensity probability distributions to inform our analysis. The study shows that these two faults result in approximately 20.7 TWh/y of additional energy use for central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in U.S. single-family detached homes, which is a 9% increase over baseline (no-fault) usage, costing homeowners approximately $2.5 billion annually on utility bills. Air-source heat pumps are responsible for a disproportionate fraction of this energy use increase because of the larger number of operating hours compared to central air conditioners and the sensitivity of heating mode performance to the faults analyzed compared to cooling mode.
Electric discharge machining was investigated as a noncontaminating method of comminuting alloys for subsequent chemical analysis. Particulate dispersions in water were produced from bulk alloys at a rate of about 5 mg/min by using a commercially available machining instrument. The utility of this approach was demonstrated by results obtained when acidified dispersions were substituted for true acid solutions in an established spectrochemical method. The analysis results were not significantly different for the two sample forms. Particle size measurements and preliminary results from other spectrochemical methods which require direct aspiration of liquid into flame or plasma sources are reported.
Single-carbon (C1, or one-carbon) substrates are promising feedstocks for sustainable biofuel and biochemical production. Crucial to the goal of engineering C1-utilizing strains for improved production is a quantitative understanding of the organization, regulation and rates of the reactions that underpin C1 metabolism. 13 C Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is a well-established platform for interrogating these questions with multi-carbon substrates, and uses the differential labeling of metabolites that results from feeding a substrate with position-specific incorporation of 13 C in order to infer quantitative fluxes and pathway topology. Furthermore, adapting isotopic tracer approaches to C1 metabolism, where position-specific substrate labeling is impossible, requires additional experimental considerations. Here we review recent studies that have developed isotopic tracer approaches to overcome the challenge of uniform metabolite labeling and provide quantitative insight into C1 metabolism.
Wire-based metal additive manufacturing utilizes the ability of additive manufacturing to fabricate complex geometries with high deposition rates (above 7 kg/h), thus finding applications in the fabrication of large-scale components, such as stamping dies. Traditionally, the workhorse materials for stamping dies have been martensitic steels. However, the complex thermal gyrations induced during additive manufacturing can cause the evolution of an inhomogeneous microstructure, which leads to a significant scatter in the mechanical properties, especially the toughness. Therefore, to understand these phenomena, arc-based additive AISI 410 samples were fabricated using robotic gas metal arc welding (GMAW) and were subjected to a detailed characterization campaign. The results show significant scatter in the tensile properties as well as Charpy V-notch impact toughness data, which was then correlated to the microstructural heterogeneity and delta (δ) ferrite formation. Post-processing (austenitizing and tempering) treatments were developed and an ~70% reduction in the scatter of tensile data and a four-times improvement in the toughness were obtained. The changes in mechanical properties were rationalized based on the microstructure evolution during additive manufacturing. Based on these, an outline to tailor the composition of “printable” steels for tooling with isotropic and uniform mechanical properties is presented and discussed.
To reduce peak demand and/or energy cost for residential buildings, optimal precooling strategies are becoming important as an alternative to rule-based precooling strategies that are intuitive but may not be optimal. Since precooling optimization is heavily dependent on a variety of factors such as the home thermal properties, HVAC system, weather, thermal comfort criteria, and utility rate structure, the individual and collective impact of these factors on precooling performance needs to be analyzed. In addition, since the indoor air temperature is affected by heat transfer to and from the interior wall surface, performance analysis in view of the interior wall surface temperature is also essential. Therefore, in this paper, an optimal precooling strategy that accounts for the aforementioned factors and utilizes a second-order thermal network model, is proposed. With this strategy, the HVAC on/off control signal that minimizes 24-hour energy cost while maintaining thermal comfort, is determined. Through extensive simulations, it is found that the proposed optimal precooling strategy is able to adapt to changing conditions and that having a sufficiently low interior wall surface temperature during precooling is critical for avoiding expensive on-peak operation. Here, the reason for the latter is that such a temperature indicates that enough “cooling energy” has been stored. It is also found that weather has the most dominant impact on the precooling performance, followed by home thermal condition, with the rated cooling capacity and utility rate structure having the least impact.
A detailed model of a typical Czochralski silicon crystal puller is utilized to predict maximum crystal growth rate as a function of various furnace parameters. Results of this analysis, when combined with multiblade slurry sawing, indicate that the Czochralski process is highly attractive for achieving near-term cost reduction of solar cell silicon.
Ultraviolet resonance fluorescence of solar radiation provides the most sensitive means of detecting the expected major constituents of the tenuous daytime lunar atmosphere. Such an experiment was carried out with the Apollo 17 Ultraviolet Spectrometer in December 1972 and produced only upper limits to the number density of H, H2, O, C, N, CO, and two noble gases near the surface of the moon. The complete data set of 47 terminator crossing observations, which were not utilized in the earlier analysis, has been reexamined, and more stringent upper limits to the column emission rates for several species have been derived. These results, together with most recent values for the atomic and molecular fluorescence efficiencies, lead to more definitive limits on the content of the lunar atmosphere. The revised upper limit on atomic oxygen density allows for the possibility of comparable O/Na ratios in the atmosphere of both the moon and Mercury.
A study was performed that evaluated the feasibility of Ka-band communication system to provide CubeSat/SmallSat high rate science data downlink with ground antennas ranging from the small portable 1.2m/2.4m to apertures 5.4M, 7.3M, 11M, and 18M, for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to Lunar CubeSat missions. This study included link analysis to determine the data rate requirement, based on the current TRL of Ka-band flight hardware and ground support infrastructure. Recent advances in Ka-band transceivers and antennas, options of portable ground stations, and various coverage distances were included in the analysis. The link/coverage analysis results show that Cubesat/Smallsat missions communication requirements including frequencies and data rates can be met by utilizing Near Earth Network (NEN) Ka-band support with 2 W and high gain (>6 dBi) antennas.
The web growth process, a silicon-sheet technology option, developed for the flat plate solar array (FSA) project, was examined. Base case data for the technical and cost parameters for the technical and commercial readiness phase of the FSA project are projected. The process add on price, using the base case data for cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials and utilities, and the production parameters such as growth rate and run length, using a computer program developed specifically to do the sensitivity analysis with improved price estimation are analyzed. Silicon price, sheet thickness and cell efficiency are also discussed.
Utility-interactive photovoltaic (PV) arrays on residential rooftops appear to be a potentially attractive, large-scale application of PV technology. Results of a comprehensive assessment of the value (i.e., break-even cost) of utility-grid connected residential photovoltaic power systems under a variety of technological and economic assumptions are presented. A wide range of allowable PV system costs are calculated for small (4.34 kW (p) sub ac) residential PV systems in various locales across the United States. Primary factor in this variation are differences in local weather conditions, utility-specific electric generation capacity, fuel types, and customer-load profiles that effect purchase and sell-back rates, and non-uniform state tax considerations. Additional results from this analysis are: locations having the highest insolation values are not necessary the most economically attractive sites; residential PV systems connected in parallel to the utility demonstrate high percentages of energy sold back to the grid, and owner financial and tax assumptions cause large variations in break-even costs. Significant cost reduction and aggressive resolution of potential institutional impediments (e.g., liability, standards, metering, and technical integration) are required for a residential PV marker to become a major electric-grid-connected energy-generation source.
An irradiation experiment using tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles and the miniature fuel (MiniFuel) irradiation vehicle was performed in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) to support development of the Kairos Power fluoride salt–cooled, high-temperature reactor (KP-FHR). Here, this paper describes modeling predictions of temperatures and fuel burnup for the as-built experiment. An uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis was performed to determine the effect of TRISO particle volume and position on the temperature predictions at various fuel heat generation rates (HGRs). This UQ study utilized fuel kernel position and volume measurements previously collected using X-ray computed tomography (XCT) techniques and Monte Carlo sampling methods to generate fuel compact cases that were then analyzed using a finite element thermal model. The UQ analysis indicated that uncertainty in calculated temperatures caused by varying TRISO particle arrangement is relatively small, even at high fuel HGR. Final predictions of particle temperatures throughout the irradiation are shown to be relevant to KP-FHR normal and off-normal operating conditions and to previous TRISO irradiation experiments. The combination of XCT with UQ analyses will inform post-irradiation examination (PIE) of the irradiated fuel compacts, and these analyses can be used to develop fuel performance models for coated particle fuel forms. Both PIE of separate-effects irradiation data and enhanced fuel performance modeling support accelerated qualification of TRISO fuels for a broad range of advanced reactor applications. The novel approach demonstrated here of measuring TRISO particle configurations with XCT methods and generating representative fuel compacts for finite element modeling and UQ analysis could be leveraged by the broader particle fuel community in the development of other TRISO fuel experiments in which these variables may have a significant impact on key outcomes.
SAND2025-14389O CEC Quest is a Python tool with a user interface designed to analyze the greenhouse gas impacts of long-duration energy storage projects in California. The tool automates data collection from public sources and uses an Application Programming Interface (API) to enable users to download photovoltaic resource availability, marginal operating emissions rate, and utility rate data. It guides users in inputting parameters for a battery energy storage model and uploading site electrical load data, while also prompting for relevant analysis parameters like timestep and grid limits. CEC Quest performs monthly optimization of one year of data to assess impacts on the site’s electrical bill and the grid’s greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, it conducts a lifecycle analysis to evaluate changes over a defined quantification period, with results aggregated through automated report generation. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
An apparatus is described for performing rapid thermal analysis of milligram quantities of reluctant glass formers. Nucleation and crystallization kinetic analysis on samples cooled at very rapid cooling rates of 10 to 2500 C/s is described. The apparatus utilizes focused heating of a sample contained on a fine thermocouple. The measured times and temperatures for nucleation of crystallization at various cooling rates and experimental conditions permit the construction of continuous cooling crystallization boundaries and the determination of critical cooling rates for glass formation.
This paper discusses analytical techniques that have been used to gain a better understanding of the Space Station Freedom's (SSF's) Data Management System (DMS). The DMS is a complex, distributed, real-time computer system that has been redesigned numerous times. The implications of these redesigns have not been fully analyzed. This paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages for static analytical techniques such as Rate Monotonic Analysis (RMA) and also provides a rationale for dynamic modeling. Factors such as system architecture, processor utilization, bus architecture, queuing, etc. are well suited for analysis with a dynamic model. The significance of performance measures for a real-time system are discussed.
A FORTRAN computer code for the reduction and analysis of experimental heat transfer data has been developed. This code can be utilized to determine heat transfer rates from surface temperature measurements made using either thin-film resistance gages or coaxial surface thermocouples. Both an analytical and a numerical finite-volume heat transfer model are implemented in this code. The analytical solution is based on a one-dimensional, semi-infinite wall thickness model with the approximation of constant substrate thermal properties, which is empirically corrected for the effects of variable thermal properties. The finite-volume solution is based on a one-dimensional, implicit discretization. The finite-volume model directly incorporates the effects of variable substrate thermal properties and does not require the semi-finite wall thickness approximation used in the analytical model. This model also includes the option of a multiple-layer substrate. Fast, accurate results can be obtained using either method. This code has been used to reduce several sets of aerodynamic heating data, of which samples are included in this report.