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At least 91 records · Page 5

Determination of atmospheric density using a space-launched projectile

A method is proposed that provides advance information about unpredictable atmospheric density dispersions that must be accommodated during random operations of aeroassisted-orbital-transfer vehicles (AOTVs). The principal feature is that a test or 'scout' projectile precedes the AOTV through the same region of the atmosphere as that of the predicted transatmospheric flight trajectory. The atmospheric density structure is determined from the vehicle's aerodynamic deceleration characteristics by on-board or ground-based tracking equipment. The time lag between passage of the projectile and the AOTV can be adjusted to only that time necessary to implement required guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) corrections. The various strategies available to control the projectile's flight characteristics are analyzed in detail. The results are correlated with aerothermodynamic heating and materials requirements to ensure the survival of the projectile and, consequently, the capability of the AOTV to navigate a variable upper atmosphere within specified limits.

Menees, G. P.↗

Energy supply processes for magnetospheric substorms and solar flares - Tippy bucket model or pitcher model?

In the past, both magnetospheric substorms and solar flares have almost exclusively been discussed in terms of explosive magnetic reconnection. Such a model may conceptually be illustrated by the so-called 'tippy-bucket model', which causes sudden unloading processes, namely a sudden (catastrophic, stochastic, and unpredictable) conversion of stored magnetic energy. However, recent observations indicate that magnetospheric substorms can be understood as a result of a directly driven process which can conceptually be illustrated by the 'pitcher model' in which the output rate varies in harmony with the input rate. It is also possible that solar flare phenomena are directly driven by a photospheric dynamo. Thus, explosive magnetic reconnection may simply be an unworkable hypothesis and may not be a puzzle to be solved as the primary energy supply process for magnetospheric substorms and solar flares.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗

A water-vapor radiometer error model

The water-vapor radiometer (WVR) is used to calibrate unpredictable delays in the wet component of the troposphere in geodetic microwave techniques such as very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) and Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking. Based on experience with Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) instruments, the current level of accuracy in wet-troposphere calibration limits the accuracy of local vertical measurements to 5-10 cm. The goal for the near future is 1-3 cm. Although the WVR is currently the best calibration method, many instruments are prone to systematic error. In this paper, a treatment of WVR data is proposed and evaluated. This treatment reduces the effect of WVR systematic errors by estimating parameters that specify an assumed functional form for the error. The assumed form of the treatment is evaluated by comparing the results of two similar WVR's operating near each other. Finally, the observability of the error parameters is estimated by covariance analysis.

Beckman, B.↗

Irregularities in the secular variation and geodynamic implications; Proceedings of the Session, Cincinnati, OH, May 17, 1984

Consideration is given to: variations in the Gauss coefficients of the geomagnetic potential over the last several hundred years; eccentric geomagnetic dipole drift; and evidence for geomagnetic jerks from 1931 to 1971. Among other topics discussed are: models of the geomagnetic field in western Europe from 1960 to 1980; the external and internal parts of the geomagnetic jerk of 1970; secular variation of the magnetic mean energy density at the source layer depth; and motions at the core surface in the geostrophic approximation. Consideration is also given to: the unpredictability of geomagnetic secular variation; the use of short-term core-mantle coupling and geomagnetic variation impulses as Lagrangian tracers of core motions; and a comparison of two sequential geomagnetic polarity transitions in the upper Olduvai and the lower Jarmillio in the Southern Hemisphere.

Taylor, P.↗

Dynamic remapping decisions in multi-phase parallel computations

The effectiveness of any given mapping of workload to processors in a parallel system is dependent on the stochastic behavior of the workload. Program behavior is often characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. During a phase, the behavior is fairly stable, but may become quite different during the next phase. Thus a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. We consider the problem of deciding whether to remap a paralled computation in the face of uncertainty in remapping's utility. Fundamentally, it is necessary to balance the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost of remapping. This paper treats this problem formally by constructing a probabilistic model of a computation with at most two phases. We use stochastic dynamic programming to show that the remapping decision policy which minimizes the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure: the optimal decision at any step is followed by comparing the probability of remapping gain against a threshold. This theoretical result stresses the importance of detecting a phase change, and assessing the possibility of gain from remapping. We also empirically study the sensitivity of optimal performance to imprecise decision threshold. Under a wide range of model parameter values, we find nearly optimal performance if remapping is chosen simply when the gain probability is high. These results strongly suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change; precise quantification of the decision model parameters is not necessary.

Nicol, D. M.↗

Middle atmosphere density and models

The 80 to 130 km altitude region is our old ignorosphere, the region of the atmosphere that no one seems to be interested in and yet the critical region for shuttle entry and atmospheric braking. Comparison between the Air Force reference atmosphere and Shuttle Inertial Measurement Units data shows large fluctuations at high latitudes. New data sources are available now, such as the Arecibo and Millstone Hill ionospheric scatter radars. In the 20 to 80 km altitude range there is a reasonable quantity of data on the mean atmosphere, however, infomation on diurnal variability is needed. In the 20 to 80 km altitude range data is needed to identify systematic variations and models for the regions are preliminary. Unpredictable variations are observed: turbulence, storm effects, gravity waves.

Champion, K.↗

Equations of motion of a space station with emphasis on the effects of the gravity gradient

The derivation of the equations of motion is based upon the principle of virtual work. As developed, these equations apply only to a space vehicle whose physical model consists of a rigid central carrier supporting several flexible appendages (not interconnected), smaller rigid bodies, and point masses. Clearly evident in the equations is the respect paid to the influence of the Earth's gravity field, considerably more than has been the custom in simulating vehicle motion. The effect of unpredictable crew motion is ignored.

Tuell, L. P.↗

Optimal dynamic remapping of parallel computations

A large class of computations are characterized by a sequence of phases, with phase changes occurring unpredictably. The decision problem was considered regarding the remapping of workload to processors in a parallel computation when the utility of remapping and the future behavior of the workload is uncertain, and phases exhibit stable execution requirements during a given phase, but requirements may change radically between phases. For these problems a workload assignment generated for one phase may hinder performance during the next phase. This problem is treated formally for a probabilistic model of computation with at most two phases. The fundamental problem of balancing the expected remapping performance gain against the delay cost was addressed. Stochastic dynamic programming is used to show that the remapping decision policy minimizing the expected running time of the computation has an extremely simple structure. Because the gain may not be predictable, the performance of a heuristic policy that does not require estimnation of the gain is examined. The heuristic method's feasibility is demonstrated by its use on an adaptive fluid dynamics code on a multiprocessor. The results suggest that except in extreme cases, the remapping decision problem is essentially that of dynamically determining whether gain can be achieved by remapping after a phase change. The results also suggest that this heuristic is applicable to computations with more than two phases.

Nicol, David M.↗

Theory of optimal weighting of data to detect climatic change

A search for climatic change predicted by climate models can easily yield unconvincing results because of 'climatic noise,' the inherent, unpredictable variability of time-average atmospheric data. A weighted average of data that maximizes the probability of detecting predicted climatic change is presented. To obtain the optimal weights, an estimate of the covariance matrix of the data from a prior data set is needed. This introduces additional sampling error into the method. This is presently taken into account. A form of the weighted average is found whose probability distribution is independent of the true (but unknown) covariance statistics of the data and of the climate model prediction.

Bell, T. L.↗

Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance

The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019 percent/year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.

Willson, R. C.↗

Environmental trends in extinction during the Paleozoic

Extinction intensities calculated from 505 Paleozoic marine assemblages divided among six environmental zones and 40 stratigraphic intervals indicate that whole communities exhibit increasing extinction offshore but that genera within individual taxonomic classes tend to have their highest extinction onshore. The offshore trend at the community level results from a concentration of genera in classes with low characteristic extinction rates in nearshore environments. This finding is consistent with the ecologic expectation that organisms inhabiting unpredictably fluctuating environments should suffer more extinction than counterparts living under more predictably equitable conditions.

Sepkoski, J. John, Jr.↗

Precise near-earth navigation with GPS: A survey of techniques

The tracking accuracy of the low earth orbiters (below about 3000 km altitude) can be brought below 10 cm with a variety of differential techniques that exploit the Global Positioning System (GPS). All of these techniques require a precisely known global network of GPS ground receivers and a receiver aboard the user satellite, and all simultaneously estimate the user and GPS satellite orbits. Three basic approaches are the geometric, dynamic, and nondynamic strategies. The last combines dynamic GPS solutions with a geometric user solution. Two powerful extensions of the nondynamic strategy show considerable promise. The first uses an optimized synthesis of dynamics and geometry in the user solution, while the second uses a novel gravity-adjustment method to exploit data from repeat ground tracks. These techniques will offer sub-decimeter accuracy for dynamically unpredictable satellites down to the lowesst possible altitudes.

Yunck, T. P.↗

Technology requirements for telerobotic satellite servicing in space

Telerobotic servicer technology requirements were identified for typical on-orbit servicing operations, including: automation requirements and automated system utilization in typical servicing missions; key automation technologies used for servicing; evolution concepts; technology development timetable; and servicing technology drivers. Teleoperation, robotics, and artificial intelligence are needed in the servicing missions investigated. Analysis shows that teleoperation will be used more widely than fully robotic systems, at least during the early space station years because of the diversity and unpredictability of many servicing tasks which call for the human operator's skills, resourcefulness, and decision-making ability. There will be heavy dependence on a sophisticated, flexible, readily accessible, high-speed and high-capacity data management system which can provide the expert system support required in diagnosing, troubleshooting, decision making, task scheduling, and mission planning.

Meissinger, Hans F.↗

Contingency rescheduling of spacecraft operations

Spacecraft activity scheduling was a focus of attention in artificial intelligence recently. Several scheduling systems were devised which more-or-less successfully address various aspects of the activity scheduling problem, though most of these are not yet mature, with the notable expection of NASA's ESP. Few current scheduling systems, however, make any attempt to deal fully with the problem of modifying a schedule in near-real-time in the event of contingencies which may arise during schedule execution. These contingencies can include resources becoming unavailable unpredictably, a change in spacecraft conditions or environment, or the need to perform an activity not scheduled. In these cases it becomes necessary to repair an existing schedule, disrupting ongoing operations as little as possible. Normal scheduling is just a part of that which must be accomplished during contingency rescheduling. A prototype system named MAESTRO was developed for spacecraft activity scheduling. MAESTRO is briefly described with a focus on recent work in the area of real-time contingency handling. Included is a discussion of some of the complexities of the scheduling problem and how they affect contingency rescheduling, such as temporal constraints between activities, activities which may be interrupted and continued in any of several ways, and different ways to choose a resource complement which will allow continuation of an activity. Various heuristics used in MAESTRO for contingency rescheduling is discussed, as are operational concerns such as interaction of the scheduler with spacecraft subsystems controllers.

Britt, Daniel L.↗

Coupled Lorenz systems in an optically pumped CH3F laser

The output emission of a short CH3F metallic waveguide laser pumped by an injection-locked CO2 transversely excited atmosphere laser is studied experimentally. The output is found to be extremely unpredictable when lasing occurs in both the excited and ground vibrational states on two separate transitions (496 and 452 microns, respectively). The dynamics and sensitivity to initial conditions are explained in terms of two Lorenz lasers with pump coupled population inversions.

Rabinovich, W. S.↗

Theories of multiple equilibria and weather regimes : A critical reexamination. II - Baroclinic two-layer models

Previous results based on low- and intermediate-order truncations of the two-layer model suggest the existence of multiple equilibria and/or multiple weather regimes for the extratropical large-scale flow. The importance of the transient waves in the synoptic scales in organizing the large-scale flow and in the maintenance of weather regimes was emphasized. The result shows that multiple equilibria/weather regimes that are present in lower-order models examined disappear when a sufficient number of modes are kept in the spectral expansion of the solution to the governing partial differential equations. Much of the chaotic behavior of the large-scale flow that is present in intermediate-order models is now found to be spurious. Physical reasons for the drastic modification are offered. A peculiarity in the formulation of most existing two-layer models is noted that also tends to exaggerate the importance of baroclinic processes and increase the degree of unpredictability of the large-scale flow.

Cehelsky, Priscilla↗

Precision positioning of earth orbiting remote sensing systems

Decimeter tracking accuracy is sought for a number of precise earth sensing satellites to be flown in the 1990's. This accuracy can be achieved with techniques which use the Global Positioning System (GPS) in a differential mode. A precisely located global network of GPS ground receivers and a receiver aboard the user satellite are needed, and all techniques simultaneously estimate the user and GPS satellite states. Three basic navigation approaches include classical dynamic, wholly nondynamic, and reduced dynamic or hybrid formulations. The first two are simply special cases of the third, which promises to deliver subdecimeter accuracy for dynamically unpredictable vehicles down to the lowest orbit altitudes. The potential of these techniques for tracking and gravity field recovery will be demonstrated on NASA's Topex satellite beginning in 1991. Applications to the Shuttle, Space Station, and dedicated remote sensing platforms are being pursued.

Melbourne, William G.↗

Implementation of optimal trajectory control of series resonant converter

Due to the presence of a high-frequency LC tank circuit, the dynamics of a resonant converter are unpredictable. There is often a large surge of tank energy during transients. Using state-plane analysis technique, an optimal trajectory control utilizing the desired solution trajectory as the control law was previously proposed for the series resonant converters. The method predicts the fastest response possible with minimum energy surge in the resonant tank. The principle of the control and its experimental implementation are described here. The dynamics of the converter are shown to be close to time-optimal.

Oruganti, Ramesh↗