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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

An uncertainty-aware strategy for plasma mechanism reduction with directed weighted graphs

In this work, we present a framework for the analysis and reduction of plasma mechanisms by means of weighted directed graphs, in which reactions and species are both treated as nodes. The methodology consists of two distinct analyses. The first, which is qualitative, relies on graph spatializations via force-directed algorithms to discover the predominant global patterns in the chemical model. The second ranks the reactions based on their shortest paths' lengths from/to the species of interest and their relative contributions to the power balance. Further, this quantitative investigation enables a strategy for mechanism reduction that is fully automatized, as it does not require any expert knowledge, highly effective, as it generates reduced mechanisms that are highly accurate while relying on a small number of processes, and easily interpretable, as the algorithm justifies the importance of the retained reactions by outputting their related chemical pathways. Additionally, the work proposes a methodology extension that employs ensembles of graphs to improve the robustness of the reduced mechanism to reaction parameter uncertainties. The approach, here tested for steady-state predictions of a plasma system characterizing negative hydrogen ion sources, is general and can be used in a wide variety of applications outside the particular nuclear fusion context demonstrated in this work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Cross Section and Beam Systematics for Future NOvA Sterile Neutrino Search

he NOvA (NuMI Off-axis $\nu_e$ Appearance) experiment measures neutrino oscillations in a nearly pure muon (anti)neutrino beam over a 810 km baseline. We search for sterile neutrino driven oscillations in both neutral current (NC) and charged current (CC) muon neutrino samples. A deficit of NC interactions at the Far Detector could occur since sterile neutrinos do not couple to the Z boson. A modulation of the muon neutrino disappearance probability is possible due to a new mass splitting. The NuMI beam line is capable of running in forward or reverse horn current modes, which creates a neutrino or antineutrino beam, respectively. Samples collected in forward horn current (FHC) or reverse horn current (RHC) modes are subject to beam optics uncertainties, in addition to cross section and hadron production uncertainties. We explore the ategories. To tackle reduction of cross section uncertainties, we study how splitting the neutral current (NC) samples can impact the systematic reduction and its implications on oscillation parameters, leveraging results from Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, we look at the possibility of using a $\nu$-on-e scattering sample. The $\nu$-on-e scattering process has minimal cross section uncertainties compared to that of neutrino-nucleus interactions, which can help constrain the overall flux normalizations. Using both the ZHC sample, NC split sample, and $\nu$-on-e scattering sample jointly with FHC samples would reduce the focusing uncertainties and the hadron production uncertainties in the future sterile analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduction of detection limit and quantification uncertainty due to interferent by neural classification with abstention

Many measurements in the physical sciences can be cast as counting experiments, where the number of occurrences of a physical phenomenon informs the prevalence of the phenomenon's source. Often, detection of the physical phenomenon (termed signal) is difficult to distinguish from naturally occurring phenomena (termed background). In this case, the discrimination of signal events from background can be performed using classifiers, and they may range from simple, threshold-based classifiers to sophisticated neural networks. These classifiers are often trained and validated to obtain optimal accuracy, however we show that the optimal accuracy classifier does not generally coincide with a classifier that provides the lowest detection limit, nor the lowest quantification uncertainty. Here, we present a derivation of the detection limit and quantification uncertainty in the classifier-based counting experiment case. We also present a novel abstention mechanism to minimize the detection limit or quantification uncertainty a posteriori. We illustrate the method on two data sets from the physical sciences, discriminating Ar-37 and Ar-39 radioactive decay from non-radioactive events in a gas proportional counter, and discriminating neutrons from gammas in an inorganic scintillator and report results therefrom.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduction of the beam dynamics systematic uncertainties by the phase space matching with RF electric fields in Muon g –2 experiment at Fermilab

Muon g –2 experiment at Fermilab aims to measure the magnetic anomaly of the muon in a precision of 140 parts-per-billion (ppb). It is one of the most strongly motivated precision particle physics experiments to unveil the mystery of the long-standing 3σ-4σ tension between the previous measurement of the muon g –2 experiment at BNL and the Standard Model predictions. One of the main challenges of the experiment is to keep the total systematic uncertainty within 100 ppb budget. In this dissertation, a novel way of matching the phase space in the muon g –2 storage ring to reduce the beam dynamics systematic effects with RF electric fields is presented. Systematic simulation studies and hardware development of the RF matching system are covered, followed by the promising analysis results of the commissioning runs.

Kim, On↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the β-decay Properties of Neutron-rich Exotic Pm, Sm, Eu, and Gd Isotopes to Constrain the Nucleosynthesis Yields in the Rare-earth Region

Abstract The β -delayed neutron-emission probabilities of 28 exotic neutron-rich isotopes of Pm, Sm, Eu, and Gd were measured for the first time at RIKEN Nishina Center using the Advanced Implantation Detector Array (AIDA) and the BRIKEN neutron detector array. The existing β -decay half-life ( T 1/2 ) database was significantly increased toward more neutron-rich isotopes, and uncertainties for previously measured values were decreased. The new data not only constrain the theoretical predictions of half-lives and β -delayed neutron-emission probabilities, but also allow for probing the mechanisms of formation of the high-mass wing of the rare-earth peak located at A ≈ 160 in the r -process abundance distribution through astrophysical reaction network calculations. An uncertainty quantification of the calculated abundance patterns with the new data shows a reduction of the uncertainty in the rare-earth peak region. The newly introduced variance-based sensitivity analysis method offers valuable insight into the influence of important nuclear physics inputs on the calculated abundance patterns. The analysis has identified the half-lives of 168 Sm and of several gadolinium isotopes as some of the key variables among the current experimental data to understand the remaining abundance uncertainty at A = 167–172.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved quantitation of SIMS depth profile measurements of niobium via sample holder design improvements and characterization of grain orientation effects

The importance of SIMS analyses for “N-doped” impurity alloyed niobium and other surface-alloyed materials continues to increase. A major hurdle is the uncertainty of instrument calibration due to changes in sample height either from sample surface topography or from the sample holder itself. The CAMECA sample holder design allows for many types of samples to be analyzed. However, a drawback is that the holder faceplate can bend, contributing an uncertainty in the relative sensitivity factor (RSF) used to quantify the SIMS results. Here, we describe an improved sample holder having a reinforced faceplate, which prevents deflection and reduces uncertainty. Simulations show that the new design significantly reduces deflection from 10 μm to 5 nm. Sample measurements show a reduction of RSF uncertainty from this source from 4.1% to 0.95%. Grain orientation has long been suspected to affect RSF measurement as well. A bicrystal implant standard, consisting of randomly oriented and [001] grains, was successively rotated 15° between analyses. It was observed that 20% of the analyses performed on the randomly oriented grain exhibited anomalously high RSF values as well as slow sputter rates. These features were associated with the changing grain normal orientation with respect to the primary Cs + beam. The grain orientation associated with the rise in RSF was simulated and determined to be the [101] crystallographic plane, thus indicating that ion channeling was responsible for the significantly increased RSF. Focused ion beam analysis confirmed slower sputter rates for the cardinal crystallographic orientations, indicating that ion channeling occurred for each.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Changes to the MTR Fuel Dissolution Flowsheet to Increase the Number of L-Bundles Charged to a Dissolver

Material Test Reactor (MTR) fuels are dissolved in the H-Canyon facility using a Hg-catalyzed, HNO₃ dissolution flowsheet. The flowsheet is based on experimental work in which laboratory-scale experiments were used to provide bounding values for both offgas and H₂ generation rates. The generation of H₂ gas, primarily from the dissolution of Al, is controlled by limiting the surface area exposed to the solution. The number of L-Bundles charged and their submergence level defines the exposed surface area which is directly proportional to the H₂ generation rate. For the MTR fuel dissolution flowsheet, the maximum number of L-Bundles which can be charged to a dissolver was specified as a function of the Al concentration in the solution and the submergence level of the bundle. The MTR fuels are currently dissolved in the 6.1D dissolver. To reach the desired terminal Al concentration, a total of 12 L-Bundles of fuel are dissolved per batch. Depending on the submergence level being used in the dissolver, the 12 bundles are dissolved in three charges of four bundles per charge or in a sequence of three, four, and five bundles. However, if six L-Bundles could be dissolved in the initial charge, a dissolver batch could be completed in two dissolutions instead of three. To assess the feasibility of dissolving six bundles in the first charge, the Savannah River National Laboratory evaluated changes to the MTR flowsheet which increase the number of bundles which can be charged to a dissolver. Since the development of the existing MTR fuel dissolution flowsheet, improved offgas measurement methods have been developed to more accurately calculate the offgas composition and generation rate during laboratory-scale dissolutions. In the first part of this study, improvements in the calibration model for the Raman spectrometer (used for offgas characterization) and a more effective data smoothing routine were applied to existing data. The uncertainty in the offgas composition data used to define the MTR fuel dissolution flowsheet were subsequently re-evaluated which resulted in an approximate 50% reduction in the uncertainty of the H₂ gas concentration measurements. The reduced uncertainty was used in new calculations to define the maximum number of L-Bundles which can be charged to either the 6.1D or 6.4D dissolver as a function of the Al concentration. With the reduced uncertainty in the H₂ concentration measurements, a flowsheet was defined which supported initially charging 6 bundles to a dissolver. This flowsheet is based on the use of 0.002 M Hg, an L-Bundle immersion depth of 54 in., an air sparge/purge flowrate of 40 scfm, an iodine reactor operating temperature of 200 °C, and not exceeding 60% of the H₂ LFL in the dissolver offgas. In the second phase of this study, calculations were performed to assess the impact of changing various operating parameters to increase the number of L-Bundles charged to an H-Canyon dissolver. Applying the improved offgas measurement techniques including the reduced uncertainty in the H₂ concentration measurements to the existing data, the number of bundles of MTR fuel which can be charged to either the 6.1D or 6.4D dissolver were calculated based on varying the bundle immersion depth (44-60 in.), air sparge/purge flowrate (40-60 scfm), iodine reactor operating temperature (150-200 °C), and the percentage of the H₂ LFL which must not be exceeded (60-76%). Qualitatively, the percentage of the LFL had the largest influence on the maximum number of bundles which can be charged to a dissolver followed by the air sparge/purge flowrate, L-Bundle immersion depth, and the iodine reactor operating temperature. During the evaluation of each variable, the other variables were held at the baseline flowsheet conditions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The completed SDSS-IV extended baryon oscillation spectroscopic survey: geometry and growth from the anisotropic void–galaxy correlation function in the luminous red galaxy sample

ABSTRACT We present an analysis of the anisotropic redshift-space void–galaxy correlation in configuration space using the Sloan Digital Sky Survey extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) Data Release 16 luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample. This sample consists of LRGs between redshifts 0.6 and 1.0, combined with the high redshift z > 0.6 tail of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey Data Release 12 CMASS sample. We use a reconstruction method to undo redshift-space distortion (RSD) effects from the galaxy field before applying a watershed void-finding algorithm to remove bias from the void selection. We then perform a joint fit to the multipole moments of the correlation function for the growth rate fσ8 and the geometrical distance ratio DM/DH, finding $f\sigma _8(z_\rm {eff})=0.356\pm 0.079$ and $D_M/D_H(z_\rm {eff})=0.868\pm 0.017$ at the effective redshift $z_\rm {eff}=0.69$ of the sample. The posterior parameter degeneracies are orthogonal to those from galaxy clustering analyses applied to the same data, and the constraint achieved on DM/DH is significantly tighter. In combination with the consensus galaxy BAO and full-shape analyses of the same sample, we obtain fσ8 = 0.447 ± 0.039, DM/rd = 17.48 ± 0.23, and DH/rd = 20.10 ± 0.34. These values are in good agreement with the ΛCDM model predictions and represent reductions in the uncertainties of $13{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, $23{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, and $28{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, respectively, compared to the combined results from galaxy clustering, or an overall reduction of 55 per cent in the allowed volume of parameter space.

Nadathur, Seshadri↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving statistical precision in Monte Carlo samples with negative weights via reweighting and uncertainty quantification

High statistical precision is critical for Monte Carlo (MC) samples in high energy physics and is degraded by negatively weighted events. This paper investigates a procedure to learn the relationship between the negative and positive weight distributions of any sample, allowing the reduction of statistical uncertainty by reweighting kinematically equivalent events with the same sign. A robust uncertainty quantification method is required for the practical application of such method. Two methods for the estimation of the reweighting uncertainty are developed: one at the event and another one at the final observable level. The latter method is strongly favored. The gains in statistical precision are then quantified. The method is demonstrated on Sherpa vector boson plus jets samples when using all generated events and when restricted to the signal region of a mock analysis. It is demonstrated to significantly reduce stochastic behavior in sparse MC samples while decreasing the overall uncertainty with a sufficiently well-known reweighting function.

Monte Carlo methods↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating uncertainty quantification in incremental dynamic analysis using dimension reduction-based surrogate modeling

We propose a surrogate modeling framework based on dimension reduction to facilitate the quantification of seismic risk of structural systems in performance-based earthquake engineering. The framework adopts incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) for addressing hazard variability, and promotes significant computational efficiency improvement for propagating epistemic uncertainties associated with the structural models. It utilizes both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction approaches, equipped with inverse mappings, to learn a functional between the input parameter space (e.g., the epistemic uncertainties of the structure) to the high-dimensional output space created through the IDA implementation across different ground motions and seismic intensity levels. Polynomial chaos expansion is adopted as the surrogate model to learn this functional in the reduced space. A nine-story steel moment-resisting frame with uncertain structural properties is used as a testbed. Furthermore, we select the seismic fragility curves as a measure of the structure’s seismic performance, since it provides an estimate of the probability of entering specified damage states for given levels of ground shaking.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constrained variational optimization of counting-time allocation in sequential scattering measurements: Application to Bonse–Hart USANS

Sequential scattering measurements are often performed under a fixed experimental-time budget, even though the expected count rate varies strongly across the measured coordinate. When the dwell time at each measurement position can be controlled independently, this variation creates a general resource-allocation problem: how should the available time be distributed to minimize the uncertainty of the reconstructed profile? We formulate this problem as a constrained variational optimization for measurements governed by Poisson counting statistics. When each measurement is treated independently, minimizing the averaged squared relative uncertainty yields an inverse-square-root intensity allocation. The formulation is then generalized to include correlations between neighboring measurements and an instrumental resolution operator, leading to an allocation criterion that equalizes the marginal reduction in posterior uncertainty per unit measurement time. Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS), in which reciprocal space is sampled sequentially through analyzer-angle stepping, provides an experimentally grounded application. Computational benchmarking shows that the optimized allocation outperforms uniform-time and constant-relative-error strategies, while application to an experimentally measured graphite USANS profile from the Spallation Neutron Source, using Poisson resampling under alternative schedules, demonstrates how counting time should be redistributed toward weak-intensity regions under an identical total duration. The resulting framework applies to sequential scattering and related scanning measurements whenever local dwell times are adjustable and directly determine the measurement uncertainties, and when the relevant correlation and instrumental-response models are available.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
DOE OSTI2024

The strong coupling constant: state of the art and the decade ahead

Theoretical predictions for particle production cross sections and decays at colliders rely heavily on perturbative Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) calculations, expressed as an expansion in powers of the strong coupling constant α$_{S}$. The current O(1%)uncertainty of the QCD coupling evaluated at the reference Z boson mass, αS(mZ2)=0.1179±0.0009, is one of the limiting factors to more precisely describe multiple processes at current and future colliders. A reduction of this uncertainty is thus a prerequisite to perform precision tests of the Standard Model as well as searches for new physics. This report provides a comprehensive summary of the state-of-the-art, challenges, and prospects in the experimental and theoretical study of the strong coupling. The current αS(mZ2)world average is derived from a combination of seven categories of observables: (i) lattice QCD, (ii) hadronic τ decays, (iii) deep-inelastic scattering and parton distribution functions fits, (iv) electroweak boson decays, hadronic final-states in (v) e$^{+}$e$^{−}$, (vi) e–p, and (vii) p–p collisions, and (viii) quarkonia decays and masses. We review the current status of each of these seven αS(mZ2)extraction methods, discuss novel α$_{S}$ determinations, and examine the averaging method used to obtain the world-average value. Each of the methods discussed provides a ‘wish list’ of experimental and theoretical developments required in order to achieve the goal of a per-mille precision on αS(mZ2)within the next decade.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity analysis of thermal contact conductance modeling to inform MiniFuel irradiation capsule designs

The MiniFuel irradiation platform has been developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory as a flexible, high-throughput separate effects testing capability within the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments to achieve a specific time-averaged irradiation temperature for experimental objectives. A previous study identified that uncertainty in the component heat generation rates and thermal contact conductance (TCC) model are the most significant contributors to predicted fuel temperature variance. To address both sources of uncertainty, this work performs sensitivity analysis on the TCC model to identify high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute to fuel temperature variance. The TCC model is analyzed in increasing detail, first using a standalone Python code, then again after coupling Python to the BISON fuel performance code. Furthermore, the parameters with the largest contributions to fuel temperature variance which can be reduced through design changes are identified as the initial subcapsule gas pressure, contact pressure between the fuel and dish, and the effective surface roughness of the interface. A set of design recommendations for future capsule designs has been established and applied to reduce the previously quantified average fuel temperature uncertainty ranges of ± 40 °C in the HFIR vertical experiment facilities (VXF) and ± 80 °C in the removable beryllium (RB) reflector to approximately ± 32 °C and ± 53 °C, respectively. This equates to a 21 % and 33 % reduction in the uncertainty range of the average fuel temperature for VXF and RB, respectively.

BISON↗
DOE OSTI2025

The anomalous magnetic moment of the muon in the Standard Model: an update

We present the current Standard Model (SM) prediction for the muon anomalous magnetic moment, a μ , updating the first White Paper (WP20) [1]. The pure QED and electroweak contributions have been further consolidated, while hadronic contributions continue to be responsible for the bulk of the uncertainty of the SM prediction. Significant progress has been achieved in the hadronic light-by-light scattering contribution using both the data-driven dispersive approach as well as lattice-QCD calculations, leading to a reduction of the uncertainty by almost a factor of two. The most important development since WP20 is the change in the estimate of the leading-order hadronic-vacuum-polarization (LO HVP) contribution. A new measurement of the e + e - → π + π - cross section by CMD-3 has increased the tensions among data-driven dispersive evaluations of the LO HVP contribution to a level that makes it impossible to combine the results in a meaningful way. At the same time, the attainable precision of lattice-QCD calculations has increased substantially and allows for a consolidated lattice-QCD average of the LO HVP contribution with a precision of about 0.9%. Adopting the latter in this update has resulted in a major upward shift of the total SM prediction, which now reads $a^{SM}_{μ}$ = 116 592 033 (62) x $10^{-11}$ (530 ppb). When compared against the current experimental average based on the E821 experiment and runs 1–6 of E989 at Fermilab, one finds $a^{exp}_{μ} -a^{SM}_{μ}= 38 (63)$ x $10^{-11}$, which implies that there is no tension between the SM and experiment at the current level of precision. The final precision of E989 (127 ppb) is the target of future efforts by the Theory Initiative. The resolution of the tensions among data-driven dispersive evaluations of the LO HVP contribution will be a key element in this endeavor.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Polarized target nuclear magnetic resonance measurements with deep neural networks

Continuous-wave Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (CW-NMR) operated in constant-current mode has served as a foundational technique for polarization measurement in solid-state dynamically polarized targets within nuclear and high-energy physics experiments for several decades, and it remains an essential tool. Conventional Q-meter-based phase-sensitive detection is critical for precise real-time determination of target polarization during scattering runs. However, the accuracy and reliability of these measurements are frequently compromised by elevated noise levels, baseline drift, and systematic uncertainties arising from signal isolation and fitting, ultimately degrading the overall experimental figure of merit. In this work, we report the first successful application of neural network architectures to continuous-wave NMR polarization metrology. By leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for signal extraction and denoising, we achieve a substantial reduction of fitting uncertainties under a variety of realistic simulated and experimental conditions. These improvements translate directly into more robust real-time (online) polarization monitoring and higher precision in subsequent offline analysis. By reducing analysis-induced uncertainty, the resulting methodology can improve the effective figure of merit for scattering experiments employing dynamically polarized targets and provides a new toolset for NMR-based polarimetry in high-energy and nuclear physics.

Metrology↗