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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2010

Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?

The observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the industrial era is less than 40% of that expected from observed increases in long-lived greenhouse gases together with the best-estimate equilibrium climate sensitivity given by the 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Possible reasons for this warming discrepancy are systematically examined here. The warming discrepancy is found to be due mainly to some combination of two factors: the IPCC best estimate of climate sensitivity being too high and/or the greenhouse gas forcing being partially offset by forcing by increased concentrations of atmospheric aerosols; the increase in global heat content due to thermal disequilibrium accounts for less than 25% of the discrepancy, and cooling by natural temperature variation can account for only about 15 %. Current uncertainty in climate sensitivity is shown to preclude determining the amount of future fossil fuel CO2 emissions that would be compatible with any chosen maximum allowable increase in GMST; even the sign of such allowable future emissions is unconstrained. Resolving this situation, by empirical determination of the earth's climate sensitivity from the historical record over the industrial period or through use of climate models whose accuracy is evaluated by their performance over this period, is shown to require substantial reduction in the uncertainty of aerosol forcing over this period.

Schwartz, Stephen E.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Crop Model Improvement Reduces the Uncertainty of the Response to Temperature of Multi-Model Ensembles

To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT worldwide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures greater than 24 C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively.

damage assessment↗

NASA NTRS1979

Probable LAGEOS contributions to a worldwide geodynamics control network

The paper describes simulations performed on the contributions which LAGEOS laser ranging data can make to the establishment of a worldwide geodynamics control network. A distribution of 10 fixed ranging stations was assumed for most of the calculations, and a single 7-day arc was used, measurements assumed to be made every 10 minutes in order to avoid artificial reductions in the uncertainties due to oversampling. Computer simulations were carried out in which the coordinates of the stations and improvements in the gravity field coefficients were solved for simultaneously. It is suggested that good accuracy for station coordinates can be expected, even with the present gravity field model uncertainties, if sufficient measurement accuracy is achieved at a reasonable distribution of stations. Further, it is found that even 2-cm range measurement errors would be likely to be the main source of station coordinate errors in retrospective analyses of LAGEOS ranging results five or six years from now.

Bender, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Far Infrared and Submillimeter Observations of the Giant Planets

Far infrared measurements of the effective temperatures of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune were made. The measurements presented here cover the range from 35-1000 micrometers in relatively narrow bands. The observations at lambda 350 micrometers were made at the 3m NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) of the Mauna Kea Observatory; those at lambda 350 micrometer were made on the Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO). All observations of Saturn were made when the ring inclination to Earth was 1.7 deg assuring an unambiguous measurement of the flux from the disk itself. Mars was used as the calibration reference. The results represent a consistent set of calibration standards. In these measurements, it is assumed that sub b(lambda = 350 micrometers) = T sub (lambda 350 micrometers). Measurements have been made of roughly 50% of the total flux emitted by Jupiter, 65% by Saturn, and 92% by Uranus and Neptune. These measurements therefore permit a considerable reduction in the uncertainties associated with the bolometric thermal outputs of the planets. The effective temperatures (T sub e) and the ratios of emitted to absorbed solar radiation were calculated.

Loewenstein, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Gravity Field of the Jovian System from Pioneer and Voyager Tracking Data

Data sets from the Voyager and Pioneer flybys of Jupiter and the Galilean satellites are employed to characterize the Jovian magnetic field and the effects of the Io torus on transmissions. Both optical and Doppler radio data are considered, except for periods when the Jovian radiation environment disturbed the oscillator stability of the radio transmitters. Account is taken of small accelerations of the spacecraft by tidal forces of a single rising satellite, density differences in the Great Red Spot producing a columnar gravitational change, and three unknown objects in the inner Jovian system. Correction parameters are developed for the effects on the S-band data induced by the Jovian plasmasphere inwards from the Io torus. Calculations are then made of the planet and satellite masses, gravity harmonic coefficients, and orientation of the rotational pole. Large reductions in the uncertainties in previous mass esimates are obtained.

Campbell, J. K.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Gravity field of the Jovian system from Pioneer and Voyager tracking data

Campbell, J. K.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Design of an expert system for estimating the cost of new knowledge in high energy astrophysics

The High Energy Astrophysics Costing Tool (HEACT) is a combined Expert System/Numerical Simulation to evaluate sensors and experiments proposed for space platforms in order to determine their expected performance and to assess the amount and quality of scientific information likely to be gathered by such experiments. The end product of this tool will be both a cost estimate for the experiment package as deployed and also an estimate of the amount of new scientific knowledge (both new data and reductions in the uncertainties of previous measurements) which would result from the actual deployment and operation of that experiment package. The numerical simulation part of HEACT will contain components to: (1) calculate the high energy signatures of both actual and proposed classes of astrophysical objects, and (2) model the response and resolution of the candidate sensors for observing those objects. The rule based part of the HEACT will be based on knowledge in the areas of experiment design, instrument selection, and system integration developed from experience with existing high energy astrophysics observatories, both orbiting and lofted by rockets or balloons. This paper presents mainly results from the design of the rule-based part of HEACT. It focuses on the structure of the rules and the structures used to represent the knowledge related to the design and integration of such experiments. Methods for integrating the results from numerical simulations into the expert system will also be discussed.

Bosworth, Edward L., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Precision pointing compensation for DSN antennas with optical distance measuring sensors

The pointing control loops of Deep Space Network (DSN) antennas do not account for unmodeled deflections of the primary and secondary reflectors. As a result, structural distortions due to unpredictable environmental loads can result in uncompensated boresight shifts which degrade pointing accuracy. The design proposed here can provide real-time bias commands to the pointing control system to compensate for environmental effects on pointing performance. The bias commands can be computed in real time from optically measured deflections at a number of points on the primary and secondary reflectors. Computer simulations with a reduced-order finite-element model of a DSN antenna validate the concept and lead to a proposed design by which a ten-to-one reduction in pointing uncertainty can be achieved under nominal uncertainty conditions.

Scheid, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Interannual Sea Level Variations in the Tropical Indian Ocean from Geosat and Shallow Water Simulations

Sea level variations of the Indian Ocean north of 20 deg S are analyzed from Geosat satellite altimeter data over April 1985-September 1989. These variations are compared and interpreted with numerical simulations derived from a reduced gravity model forced by FSU observed winds over the same period. After decomposition into complex empirical orthogonal functions, the low-frequency anomalies are described by the first two modes for observations as well as for simulations. The sums of the two modes contain 34% and 40% of the observed and simulated variances, respectively. Averaged over the basin, the observed and simulated sea level changes are correlated by 0.92 over 1985-1988. The strongest change happens during the El Ninio 1986-1987: between winter 1986 and summer 1987 the basin-averaged sea level rises by approx. 1 cm. These low-frequency variations can partly be explained by changes in the Sverdrup circulation. The southern tropical Indian Ocean between 1O deg and 20 deg S is the domain where those changes are strongest: the averaged sea level rises by approx. 4.5 cm between winter 1986 and winter 1987. There, the signal propagates southwestward across the basin at a speed similar to free Rossby waves. Sensitivity of observed anomalies is examined over 1987-1988, with different orbit ephemeris, tropospheric corrections, and error reduction processes. The uncertainty of the basin-averaged sea level estimates is mostly due to the way the orbit error is reduced and reaches approx. 1 cm. Nonetheless, spatial correlation is good between the various observations and better than between observations and simulations. Sensitivity of simulated anomalies to the wind uncertainty, examined with Former Soviet Union (FSU) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forcings over 1985-1988, shows that the variance of the simulations driven by ECMWF is 52% smaller, as FSU winds are stronger than ECMWF. Results show that the wind strength also affects the dynamic response of the ocean: anomalies propagate westward across the basin more than twice as fast with FSU than with ECMWF. It is found that the discrepancy is larger between ECMWF and FSU simulations than between observations and FSU simulations.

Perigaud, Claire↗

NASA NTRS2011

Towards Improved Snow Water Equivalent Estimation via GRACE Assimilation

Passive microwave (e.g. AMSR-E) and visible spectrum (e.g. MODIS) measurements of snow states have been used in conjunction with land surface models to better characterize snow pack states, most notably snow water equivalent (SWE). However, both types of measurements have limitations. AMSR-E, for example, suffers a loss of information in deep/wet snow packs. Similarly, MODIS suffers a loss of temporal correlation information beyond the initial accumulation and final ablation phases of the snow season. Gravimetric measurements, on the other hand, do not suffer from these limitations. In this study, gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used in a land surface model data assimilation (DA) framework to better characterize SWE in the Mackenzie River basin located in northern Canada. Comparisons are made against independent, ground-based SWE observations, state-of-the-art modeled SWE estimates, and independent, ground-based river discharge observations. Preliminary results suggest improved SWE estimates, including improved timing of the subsequent ablation and runoff of the snow pack. Additionally, use of the DA procedure can add vertical and horizontal resolution to the coarse-scale GRACE measurements as well as effectively downscale the measurements in time. Such findings offer the potential for better understanding of the hydrologic cycle in snow-dominated basins located in remote regions of the globe where ground-based observation collection if difficult, if not impossible. This information could ultimately lead to improved freshwater resource management in communities dependent on snow melt as well as a reduction in the uncertainty of river discharge into the Arctic Ocean.

Forman, Bart↗

NASA NTRS2011

Flight Reynolds Number Testing of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle in the NASA Langley National Transonic Facility

A 6%-scale unpowered model of the Orion Launch Abort Vehicle (LAV) ALAS-11-rev3c configuration was tested in the NASA Langley National Transonic Facility to obtain static aerodynamic data at flight Reynolds numbers. Subsonic and transonic data were obtained for Mach numbers between 0.3 and 0.95 for angles of attack from -4 to +22 degrees and angles of sideslip from -10 to +10 degrees. Data were also obtained at various intermediate Reynolds numbers between 2.5 million and 45 million depending on Mach number in order to examine the effects of Reynolds number on the vehicle. Force and moment data were obtained using a 6-component strain gauge balance that operated both at warm temperatures (+120 . F) and cryogenic temperatures (-250 . F). Surface pressure data were obtained with electronically scanned pressure units housed in heated enclosures designed to survive cryogenic temperatures. Data obtained during the 3-week test entry were used to support development of the LAV aerodynamic database and to support computational fluid dynamics code validation. Furthermore, one of the outcomes of the test was the reduction of database uncertainty on axial force coefficient for the static unpowered LAV. This was accomplished as a result of good data repeatability throughout the test and because of decreased uncertainty on scaling wind tunnel data to flight.

Chan, David T.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Performance Efficient Launch Vehicle Recovery and Reuse

For decades, economic reuse of launch vehicles has been an elusive goal. Recent attempts at demonstrating elements of launch vehicle recovery for reuse have invigorated a debate over the merits of different approaches. The parameter most often used to assess the cost of access to space is dollars-per-kilogram to orbit. When comparing reusable vs. expendable launch vehicles, that ratio has been shown to be most sensitive to the performance lost as a result of enabling the reusability. This paper will briefly review the historical background and results of recent attempts to recover launch vehicle assets for reuse. The business case for reuse will be reviewed, with emphasis on the performance expended to recover those assets, and the practicality of the most ambitious reuse concept, namely propulsive return to the launch site. In 2015, United Launch Alliance (ULA) announced its Sensible, Modular, Autonomous Return Technology (SMART) reuse plan for recovery of the booster module for its new Vulcan launch vehicle. That plan employs a non-propulsive approach where atmospheric entry, descent and landing (EDL) technologies are utilized. Elements of such a system have a wide variety of applications, from recovery of launch vehicle elements in suborbital trajectories all the way to human space exploration. This paper will include an update on ULA's booster module recovery approach, which relies on Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) and Mid-Air Retrieval (MAR) technologies, including its concept of operations (ConOps). The HIAD design, as well as parafoil staging and MAR concepts, will be discussed. Recent HIAD development activities and near term plans including scalability, next generation materials for the inflatable structure and heat shield, and gas generator inflation systems will be provided. MAR topics will include the ConOps for recovery, helicopter selection and staging, and the state of the art of parachute recovery systems using large parafoils for space asset recovery and high altitude deployment. The next proposed HIAD flight demonstration is called HULA (for HIAD on ULA), and will feature a 6m diameter HIAD. An update for the HULA concept will be provided in this paper. As proposed, this demonstration will fly as a secondary payload on an Atlas mission. The Centaur upper stage provides the reentry pointing, deorbit burn, and entry vehicle spin up. The flight test will culminate with a recovery of the HIAD using MAR. HULA will provide data from a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) return aeroheating environment that enables predictive model correlation and refinement. The resultant reduction in performance uncertainties should lead to design efficiencies that are increasingly significant at larger scales. Relevance to human scale Mars EDL using a HIAD will also be presented, and the applicability of the data generated from both HULA and SMART Vulcan flights, and its value for NASA's human exploration efforts will be discussed. A summary and conclusion will follow.

Reed, John G.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Technical Note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: Evaluation of Wet and Dry Deposition Schemes as an Integral Part of Regional-scale Air Quality Models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use–land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiat↗

NASA NTRS2023

Low-Drag Acoustic Liner Development

Interest in characterization of the aerodynamic drag of acoustic liners has increased in the past several years. This report details experiments in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube to quantify the relative drag of several perforate-over-honeycomb liner configurations at flow speeds of M=0.3 and 0.5. Various perforate geometries and orientations are investigated to determine their resistance factors using a static pressure drop approach. Comparison of these resistance factors gives a relative measurement of liner drag. For these same flow conditions, acoustic measurements are performed simultaneously with the drag measurements for tonal excitation from 400 to 3000 Hz at source sound pressure levels of 140 and 150 dB. Educed impedance and attenuation spectra are used to determine the impact of variations in perforate geometry on acoustic performance. The goal is to identify a perforate that will reduce the drag penalty associated with conventional round-hole perforates by 60%. One perforate design, based on a slot geometry, is shown to reduce this penalty by 50%. Further reductions may be possible but require a reduction in measurement uncertainty to allow a statistically rigorous evaluation.

drag↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility

This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.

Walter, Joel A.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Uncertainty Analysis of Slug Calorimeters in the HyMETS Arc-Jet Facility

The objective of this work is to perform an uncertainty analysis of the deduced stagnation heat flux environment on a slug calorimeter for conditions that span the performance envelope of the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System arc-jet facility located at NASA Langley Research Center. Analytical solutions are developed for boundary-value problems on the slug element accounting for non-ideal effects, including spatial variation in the slug heat flux, multi-dimensional thermal conduction, and back-face losses, which departs from the state-of-the-art method derived from the American Society of Testing and Materials. Boundary-value problem definitions are informed by preliminary finite element thermal analysis of the slug calorimeter assembly (including both slug and housing) and just the slug element. The analytical solutions are presented in a general sense and in a truncated form from error analysis. Results are shown in optimizing and validating the analytical models against available slug back-face thermal data. The optimization results indicate that the appropriate epistemic uncertainty of the deduced stagnation heat flux on the slug calorimeter is at most±2.5% for both a high-and low-enthalpy test condition. In addition, a numerical approach is used to determine the aleatory (probabilistic) uncertainty component in the slug stagnation heat flux by applying a marching least-squares slope routine through the steady-state portion of the slug back-face thermal response. Results indicate a compromise between the number of samples and the filter frequency of slug back-face thermal data points when evaluating the standard deviation of the deduced stagnation heat flux statistics. When combining the mixed uncertainty, both aleatory and epistemic, the interval of uncertainty in the deduced stagnation heat flux is determined to be up to ±4%, which is at least a 60% reduction from the standard uncertainty used in the state-of-the-art method.

uncertainty↗

NASA NTRS2023

Geophysical Uncertainties in Air Pollution Exposure and Benefits of Emissions Reductions for Global Health

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L. A. Parsons↗

NASA NTRS2023

Thermal Infrared Dust Optical Depth and Coarse-Mode Effective Diameter Over Oceans Retrieved From Collocated MODIS and CALIOP Observations

In this study, we developed a novel algorithm based on the collocated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal infrared (TIR) observations and dust vertical profiles from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) to simultaneously retrieve dust aerosol optical depth at 10 µm (DAOD10μm) and the coarse-mode dust effective diameter (Deff) over global oceans. The accuracy of the Deff retrieval is assessed by comparing the dust lognormal volume particle size distribution (PSD) corresponding to retrieved Deff with the in-situ measured dust PSDs from the AER-D, SAMUM-2 and SALTRACE field campaigns through case studies. The new DAOD10μm retrievals were evaluated first through comparisons with the collocated DAOD10.6μm retrieved from the combined Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR) and CALIOP observations from our previous study (Zheng et al. 2022). The pixel-to-pixel comparison of the two DAOD retrievals indicates a good agreement (R~0.7) and a significant reduction of (~50%) retrieval uncertainties largely thanks to the better constraint on dust size. In a climatological comparison, the seasonal and regional (5°×2°) mean DAOD10um retrievals based on our combined MODIS and CALIOP method are in good agreement with the two independent Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) products over three dust transport regions (i.e., North Atlantic (NA; R = 0.9), Indian Ocean (IO; R = 0.8) and North Pacific (NP; R = 0.7)). Using the new retrievals from 2013 to 2017, we performed a climatological analysis of coarse mode dust Deff over global oceans. We found that dust Deff over IO and NP are up to 20% smaller than that over NA. Over NA in summer, we found a ~50% reduction of the number of retrievals with Deff > 5 μm from 15°W to 35°W and a stable trend of Deff average at 4.4 μm from 35°W throughout the Caribbean Sea (90°W). Over NP in spring, only ~5% of retrieved pixels with Deff > 5 μm are found from 150°E to 180°, while the mean Deff remains stable at 4.0 μm throughout eastern NP. To our best knowledge, this study is the first to retrieve both DAOD and coarse-mode dust particle size over global oceans for multiple years. This retrieval dataset provides insightful information for evaluating dust long-wave radiative effects and coarse mode dust particle size in models.

dust optical depth↗