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At least 91 records · Page 5

Space Shuttle Main Engine performance analysis

For a number of years, NASA has relied primarily upon periodically updated versions of Rocketdyne's power balance model (PBM) to provide space shuttle main engine (SSME) steady-state performance prediction. A recent computational study indicated that PBM predictions do not satisfy fundamental energy conservation principles. More recently, SSME test results provided by the Technology Test Bed (TTB) program have indicated significant discrepancies between PBM flow and temperature predictions and TTB observations. Results of these investigations have diminished confidence in the predictions provided by PBM, and motivated the development of new computational tools for supporting SSME performance analysis. A multivariate least squares regression algorithm was developed and implemented during this effort in order to efficiently characterize TTB data. This procedure, called the 'gains model,' was used to approximate the variation of SSME performance parameters such as flow rate, pressure, temperature, speed, and assorted hardware characteristics in terms of six assumed independent influences. These six influences were engine power level, mixture ratio, fuel inlet pressure and temperature, and oxidizer inlet pressure and temperature. A BFGS optimization algorithm provided the base procedure for determining regression coefficients for both linear and full quadratic approximations of parameter variation. Statistical information relative to data deviation from regression derived relations was also computed. A new strategy for integrating test data with theoretical performance prediction was also investigated. The current integration procedure employed by PBM treats test data as pristine and adjusts hardware characteristics in a heuristic manner to achieve engine balance. Within PBM, this integration procedure is called 'data reduction.' By contrast, the new data integration procedure, termed 'reconciliation,' uses mathematical optimization techniques, and requires both measurement and balance uncertainty estimates. The reconciler attempts to select operational parameters that minimize the difference between theoretical prediction and observation. Selected values are further constrained to fall within measurement uncertainty limits and to satisfy fundamental physical relations (mass conservation, energy conservation, pressure drop relations, etc.) within uncertainty estimates for all SSME subsystems. The parameter selection problem described above is a traditional nonlinear programming problem. The reconciler employs a mixed penalty method to determine optimum values of SSME operating parameters associated with this problem formulation.

Santi, L. Michael↗

Effect of Correlated Precision Errors on Uncertainty of a Subsonic Venturi Calibration

An uncertainty analysis performed in conjunction with the calibration of a subsonic venturi for use in a turbine test facility produced some unanticipated results that may have a significant impact in a variety of test situations. Precision uncertainty estimates using the preferred propagation techniques in the applicable American National Standards Institute/American Society of Mechanical Engineers standards were an order of magnitude larger than precision uncertainty estimates calculated directly from a sample of results (discharge coefficient) obtained at the same experimental set point. The differences were attributable to the effect of correlated precision errors, which previously have been considered negligible. An analysis explaining this phenomenon is presented. The article is not meant to document the venturi calibration, but rather to give a real example of results where correlated precision terms are important. The significance of the correlated precision terms could apply to many test situations.

Hudson, S. T.↗

SNPP VIIRS RSB on-orbit radiometric calibration algorithms Version 2.0 and the performances. Part II: The performances

In Part I (Lei et. al, submitted to J. of Appl. Rem. Sens.),we gave detailed reviews of the algorithms Version 2.0 used for the on-orbit radiometric calibration of the reflective solar bands (RSBs) of the first Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite instrument. These algorithms improve the accuracy of the measured on-orbit change factor of the solar diffuser bidirectional reflectance distribution function, the H-factor, and reveal that the H-factor is angle dependent. With the help of lunar observations and the improved H-factor, the algorithms give more accurate values for the RSB detector on-orbit F-factor changes (F-factor is a correction factor to the initially retrieved scene spectral radiance). In this paper we review the RSB radiometric calibration performances. We show the H-factor temporal trend, the estimated uncertainty of the retrieved H-factor, and the F-factor temporal trend. Additionally we show the detector signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the estimated uncertainty of the top-of-the-atmosphere solar spectral reflectance, the reflectance temporal trend for the Libya 4 desert, and the differences in the reflectances among the SNPP and the NOAA-20 VIIRS, and the Aqua MODIS. Our results show that although the SNRs trend downwards, they exceed the requirements by large margins. The reflectances from the Libya 4 desert show that the SNPP VIIRS’ reflectance is higher than those of the Aqua MODIS and the NOAA-20 VIIRS.

on-orbit calibration↗

SNPP VIIRS RSB on-orbit radiometric calibration algorithms Version 2.0 and the performances. Part II: The performances

In Part I (Lei et. al, submitted to J. of Appl. Rem. Sens.),we gave detailed reviews of the algorithms Version 2.0 used for the on-orbit radiometric calibration of the reflective solar bands (RSBs) of the first Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite instrument. These algorithms improve the accuracy of the measured on-orbit change factor of the solar diffuser bidirectional reflectance distribution function, the H-factor, and reveal that the H-factor is angle dependent. With the help of lunar observations and the improved H-factor, the algorithms give more accurate values for the RSB detector on-orbit F-factor changes (F-factor is a correction factor to the initially retrieved scene spectral radiance). In this paper we review the RSB radiometric calibration performances. We show the H-factor temporal trend, the estimated uncertainty of the retrieved H-factor, and the F-factor temporal trend. Additionally we show the detector signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the estimated uncertainty of the top-of-the-atmosphere solar spectral reflectance, the reflectance temporal trend for the Libya 4 desert, and the differences in the reflectances among the SNPP and the NOAA-20 VIIRS, and the Aqua MODIS. Our results show that although the SNRs trend downwards, they exceed the requirements by large margins. The reflectances from the Libya 4 desert show that the SNPP VIIRS’ reflectance is higher than those of the Aqua MODIS and the NOAA-20 VIIRS

Ning Lei↗

Estimating the Uncertainty in Passive-Microwave Rain-Retrievals

Current passive-microwave rain-retrieval methods are largely based on databases built off-line using cloud models. The vertical distribution of hydrometeors within the cloud has a large impact on upwelling brightness temperatures ([31,[5]). Thus, a forward radiative transfer model can predict off-line the radiance associated with different rain scenarios. To estimate the rain from measured brightness temperatures, one simply looks for the rain scenario whose associated radiances are closest to the measurements. To understand the uncertainties in this process, we first study the dependence of the simulated brightness temperatures on different hydrometeor size distribution (DSD) models. We then analyze the marginal and joint distributions of the radiances observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and of those in the databases used in the TRMM rain retrievals. We finally calculate the covariances of the rain profiles and brightness temperatures in the TRMM passive-microwave database and derive a simple parametric model for the conditional uncertainty, given measured radiances. These results are used to characterize the uncertainty inherent in the passive-microwave retrieval.

Coppens, Dorothee↗

Evaluation of Long-Term Calibrations of the AVHRR Visible Radiances

Two systematic calibrations have been compiled for the visible radiances measured by the series of AVHRR instruments flown on the NOAA operational polar weather satellites: one by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), anchored on NASA ER-2 underflights in the 1980s and early 1990s and covering the period 1981-2009, and one by the PATMOS-x project, anchored on comparisons to the MODIS instruments on the Aqua and Terra satellites in the 2000s and covering the period 1979-2010 (this result also includes calibration for the near-IR channels). Both methods have had to extend their anchor calibrations over a long series of instruments using different vicarious approaches, so a comparison provides an opportunity to evaluate how well this extension works by cross-checking the results at the anchor points. The basic result of this comparison is that for the ''afternoon'' series of AVHRRs, the calibrations agree to within their mutual uncertainties. However, this retrospective evaluation also shows that the representation of the time variations can be simplified. The ISCCP procedure had much more difficulty extending the calibration to the ''morning'' series of AVHRRs with the calibrations for NOAA-15 and NOAA-17 exceeding the estimated uncertainties. Given the general agreement, a new calibration for all AVHRR visible radiances (except TIROS-N, NOAA-6, NOAA-19, and MetOp-A) is proposed that is based on the average of the best linear fits to the two time records. The estimated uncertainty of these calibrations is 63% absolute (scaled radiance units).

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer↗

Lessons from Climate Modeling on the Design and Use of Ensembles for Crop Modeling

Working with ensembles of crop models is a recent but important development in crop modeling which promises to lead to better uncertainty estimates for model projections and predictions, better predictions using the ensemble mean or median, and closer collaboration within the modeling community. There are numerous open questions about the best way to create and analyze such ensembles. Much can be learned from the field of climate modeling, given its much longer experience with ensembles. We draw on that experience to identify questions and make propositions that should help make ensemble modeling with crop models more rigorous and informative. The propositions include defining criteria for acceptance of models in a crop MME, exploring criteria for evaluating the degree of relatedness of models in a MME, studying the effect of number of models in the ensemble, development of a statistical model of model sampling, creation of a repository for MME results, studies of possible differential weighting of models in an ensemble, creation of single model ensembles based on sampling from the uncertainty distribution of parameter values or inputs specifically oriented toward uncertainty estimation, the creation of super ensembles that sample more than one source of uncertainty, the analysis of super ensemble results to obtain information on total uncertainty and the separate contributions of different sources of uncertainty and finally further investigation of the use of the multi-model mean or median as a predictor.

Model ensembles↗

Version 4 of the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Algorithm and Data Product

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with a mean latency of ~2.5 days. The underlying L4_SM algorithm assimilates SMAP radiometer brightness temperature (Tb) observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially-distributed ensemble Kalman filter. Version 4 of the L4_SM modeling system includes a reduction in the upward recharge of surface soil moisture from below under non-equilibrium conditions, resulting in reduced bias and improved dynamic range of L4_SM surface soil moisture compared to earlier versions. This change and additional technical modifications to the system reduce the mean and standard deviation of the observation-minus-forecast Tb residuals and overall soil moisture analysis increments while maintaining the skill of the L4_SM soil moisture estimates versus independent in situ measurements; the average, bias-adjusted RMSE in Version 4 is 0.039 m(exp 3) m(exp -3) for surface and 0.026 m(exp 3) m(exp -3) for root-zone soil moisture. Moreover, the coverage of assimilated SMAP observations in Version 4 is near-global owing to the use of additional satellite Tb records for algorithm calibration. L4_SM soil moisture uncertainty estimates are biased low (by 0.01-0.02 m(exp 3) m(exp -3)) against actual errors (computed versus in situ measurements). L4_SM runoff estimates, an additional product of the L4_SM algorithm, are biased low (by 35 mm year (exp -1)) against streamflow measurements. Compared to Version 3, bias in Version 4 is reduced by 46% for surface soil moisture uncertainty estimates and by 33% for runoff estimates.

RMSE↗

Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence. Probability density functions for high-LET radiation quality and dose-rate may be preferable to conventional risk assessment approaches. Nuclear reactions and track structure effects in tissue may not be properly estimated by existing data using in vitro models for estimating RBEs. The method used here is being extended to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft shielding effectiveness in various space radiation environments.

NASA Center LaRC↗

SeaWiFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series: The SeaWiFS Solar Radiation-Based Calibration and the Transfer-to-Orbit Experiment - Volume 5

The solar radiation-based calibration (SRBC) of the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) was performed on 1 November 1993. Measurements were made outdoors in the courtyard of the instrument manufacturer. SeaWiFS viewed the solar irradiance reflected from the sensor's diffuser in the same manner as viewed on orbit. The calibration included measurements using a solar radiometer designed to determine the transmittances of principal atmospheric constituents. The primary uncertainties in the outdoor measurements are the transmission of the atmosphere and the reflectance of the diffuser. Their combined uncertainty is about 5 or 6%. The SRBC also requires knowledge of the extraterrestrial solar spectrum. Four solar models are used. When averaged over the responses of the SeaWiFS bands, the irradiance models agree at the 3.6% level, with the greatest difference for SeaWiFS band 8. The calibration coefficients from the SRBC are lower than those from the laboratory calibration of the instrument in 1997. For a representative solar model, the ratios of the SRBC coefficients to laboratory values average 0.962 with a standard deviation of 0.012. The greatest relative difference is 0.946 for band 8. These values are within the estimated uncertainties of the calibration measurements. For the transfer-to-orbit experiment, the measurements in the manufacturer's courtyard are used to predict the digital counts from the instrument on its first day on orbit (August 1, 1997). This experiment requires an estimate of the relative change in the diffuser response for the period between the launch of the instrument and its first solar measurements on orbit (September 9, 1997). In relative terms, the counts from the instrument on its first day on orbit averaged 1.3% higher than predicted, with a standard deviation of 1.2% and a greatest difference of 2.4% or band 7. The estimated uncertainty for the transfer-to-orbit experiment is about 3 or 4%.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗

Estimation of uncertainty in isotherms deduced from Hugoniots resulting from shockwave generated defects

The problem of how defect concentrations produced in a shock experiment affect the isothermal equation of state is considered. From the few experimental results available that bear directly on this question, it appears the effect could be substantial, i.e., the pressure in material free of defects may be 10-25% lower at a given volume than the isothermal pressure deduced from Hugoniot data on the assumption that defects are negligible in the shocked material. This correction caused by the presence of defects is called the defect pressure.

Ruoff, A. L.↗

A PC program for estimating measurement uncertainty for aeronautics test instrumentation

A personal computer program was developed which provides aeronautics and operations engineers at Lewis Research Center with a uniform method to quickly provide values for the uncertainty in test measurements and research results. The software package used for performing the calculations is Mathcad 4.0, a Windows version of a program which provides an interactive user interface for entering values directly into equations with immediate display of results. The error contribution from each component of the system is identified individually in terms of the parameter measured. The final result is given in common units, SI units, and percent of full scale range. The program also lists the specifications for all instrumentation and calibration equipment used for the analysis. It provides a presentation-quality printed output which can be used directly for reports and documents.

Blumenthal, Philip Z.↗

Estimation of Uncertainties for a Supersonic Retro-Propulsion Model Validation Experiment in a Wind Tunnel

A high-quality model validation experiment was performed in the NASA Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel to assess the predictive accuracy of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for a blunt-body supersonic retro-propulsion configuration at Mach numbers from 2.4 to 4.6. Static and fluctuating surface pressure data were acquired on a 5-inch-diameter test article with a forebody composed of a spherically-blunted, 70-degree half-angle cone and a cylindrical aft body. One non-powered configuration with a smooth outer mold line was tested as well as three different powered, forward-firing nozzle configurations: a centerline nozzle, three nozzles equally spaced around the forebody, and a combination with all four nozzles. A key objective of the experiment was the determination of experimental uncertainties from a range of sources such as random measurement error, flowfield non-uniformity, and model/instrumentation asymmetries. This paper discusses the design of the experiment towards capturing these uncertainties for the baseline non-powered configuration, the methodology utilized in quantifying the various sources of uncertainty, and examples of the uncertainties applied to non-powered and powered experimental results. The analysis showed that flowfield nonuniformity was the dominant contributor to the overall uncertainty a finding in agreement with other experiments that have quantified various sources of uncertainty.

Rhode, Matthew N.↗

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical emulation↗