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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Gas-Cooled High-Temperature Pebble-Bed Reactor Reference Plant Model Updates

This work presents the latest improvements to, and investigations performed with, the pebble-bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (PB-HTGR) reference plant models for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These models serve as the foundation for the future development of detailed design evaluation models based on license applications. The reference plant models have been developed with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, which is the code suite proposed for non-light-water reactor systems safety analysis. It incorporates various simulation tools developed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program, including the Griffin code for reactor physics, the Pronghorn and SAM codes for core thermal fluids, the BISON code for solid conduction and fuel performance, and the SAM code for system analysis. The primary objective of the work that was performed was to assess BlueCRAB’s level of readiness for modeling a PB-HTGR. To do so, we first developed numerical models in BlueCRAB that include the key physics for this technology to ensure an adequate level of fidelity for modeling PB-HTGR core performance and for performing multiphysics simulations for equilibrium core conditions and different accident scenarios. Then we simulated transient scenarios, including depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling accidents, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events with delayed and prompt supercritical reactivity insertions. The analysis in this report includes comparisons of the 2D thermal fluid porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM, and comparisons of coupled SAM/Griffin/SAM and coupled Pronghorn/Griffin for depressurized and pressurized loss of forced cooling, over-cooling, and control rod withdrawal events. In addition, we compare 3D, 2D, and 0D/PKE neutronic models for the two control rod withdrawal scenarios with coupled Pronghorn/Griffin. The comparisons show that the BlueCRAB models lead to physically intuitive solutions for the scenarios examined. The changes in the various scalar and vector fields, such as neutron flux, power, temperature, density, pressure, and velocity, are within the expected ranges, and their distributions can be explained by the system response of the transients and the geometric and material variations. Several comparisons suggest that the porous media models in Pronghorn and SAM can lead to similar solutions, even though they are based on different methodologies. This work further highlights the need for flexible tools with various levels of fidelity to cover the breadth and depth of needs that may arise in future technical evaluations of the PB-HTGR. We believe that the BlueCRAB capabilities will be a significant asset for confirmatory analyses in order to resolve important safety questions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Investigation of System-Level Optimized Power Conversion System Architectures to Reduce LCOE for Large-Scale PV-Plus-Storage Farms

PV-plus-storage (PVS) has become a prevalent configuration for newly commissioned large-scale solar projects. However, the optimal power conversion system (PCS) architecture has not been investigated yet. This paper first validates the limited impact of inverter cost on LCOE and then explores a system-level optimized PCS architecture with extended LCOE reduction to proliferate large-scale dispatchable solar energy. Two state-of-the-art architectures including central inverters (CI), traditional 480/600 V string inverters (SI) are compared with newly proposed medium voltage string inverters (MVSI) and multiport DC transformer (MDCT). With verified layouts and single line diagrams (SLDs) of 20 MW PVS plants, the losses and costs breakdown of different architectures are extracted and the PCS related LCOEs are derived. In this analysis, all electrical bill of materials (EBOS) elements, inverters, battery storage and its associated components, are included, whose losses and costs are obtained from markets, manufacturers, and literature. Besides, the sensitivities of PCS-related LCOEs to Inverter-Loading-Ratio (ILR) are also investigated. Here, the results show that compared with CI and SI with 1.5 kV PV, 4 kV MVSI and 34 kV MDCT present an extended LCOE reduction across all ILR from 1.0 to 3.0, making them economically favorable candidates for PVS farms.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving the Long-term Cycle Performance of xLi 2 MnO 3 ·(1-x)LiMeO 2 /Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 Cells via Prelithiation and Electrolyte Engineering

Toward the development of high energy density and long lifetime batteries for behind-the-meter storage (BTMS) applications, Li- and Mn-rich layered oxide cathode (xLi 2 MnO 3 ·(1-x)LiMeO 2 , Me = Ni, Mn, and etc., LMR-NM) and Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 (LTO) anode system was examined. To mitigate the major degradation mechanisms at each electrode (i.e., loss of Li inventory (LLI) at the anode and transition metal dissolution and oxygen release at the cathode), two approaches were taken—prelithiating the LTO electrode and varying the electrolyte solvent compositions. The effect of prelithiation and electrolyte engineering on the long-term cycle performance of LMR-NM/LTO cells were systematically evaluated via electrochemical analyses and post-mortem characterizations. By using a prelithiated LTO anode and supplying additional Li to the system, the capacity retention of LMR-NM/LTO system was improved. The degree of enhancement was dependent on the types of electrolytes used, as their decomposition products determined the level of LLI. With increased capacity retention, however, the cathode was utilized to a greater extent, resulting in more severe loss of the cathode active material. Thus, all degradation mechanisms should be considered comprehensively when designing high performance LMR-NM/LTO cells to account for their complex interplay.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experimental study of the impact of scavenging efficiency on diesel combustion in an opposed-piston two-stroke engine

The opposed-piston two-stroke (OP2S) engine is a promising alternative powertrain technology that can offer thermal and brake efficiency improvements over conventional four-stroke engines. In recent years, many of the technical barriers of the OP2S engine architecture have been overcome. However, there is still a need for fundamental studies to provide insight into the scavenging and combustion processes of the OP2S engine to help design and operate the most efficient combustion systems using this engine architecture. This work aims to provide such insights by analyzing experimental data collected on a 3-cylinder, 4.9 L OP2S engine. Specifically, a scavenging efficiency sweep, an engine speed sweep with a constant scavenging efficiency, and an engine speed with a constant pressure differential across the engine were studied in detail. It was found that in diesel combustion, as the scavenging efficiency decreased, the increase in temperature of the hot, internal residuals resulted in a significant increase in heat transfer. Despite lowering pumping losses, this resulted in an overall decrease in brake efficiency. When the bulk thermodynamic conditions of two different scavenging efficiency cases (67% and 72%) were matched at port closing, the lower scavenging efficiency case still displayed a 0.7 percentage point penalty in net thermal efficiency and an increase in engine-out indicated specific emissions of NOx of 18% due to residual stratification in the cylinder. The results presented in this work show that the optimal breathing strategy in diesel combustion on an OP2S engine architecture is one that results in a slightly under-scavenged environment at port closing. However, the results did show potential system-level efficiency benefits of decreasing scavenging efficiency, meaning that alternative fuels and combustion strategies without the constraints of diesel combustion could achieve system-level efficiency gains by running significantly under-scavenged.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Solar Influencer Next Door: Predicting Low-Income Solar Referrals and Leads

Increasing the adoption of solar among low-to-moderate income (LMI) households remains an important policy goal because of its promise to simultaneously reduce energy burden and support the just distribution of benefits of renewable energy. However, scaling LMI solar remains challenging due to affordability and access issues. Most existing LMI adoption has occurred under public-funded programs, highlighting the importance of increasing the cost-effectiveness of these programs at scale. We develop a new household-level data set on LMI solar lead acquisition, referrals, and adoption to understand the processes through which LMI solar uptake has occurred in California. Then, we develop models to predict two sub-mechanisms in the solar adoption process: whether an otherwise qualified lead becomes "lost" i.e. non-responsive to outreach and, for existing clients, whether they refer solar to others. For the program analyzed, participants received their solar system at no cost, which deemphasizes economic drivers of solar adoption and could differ from other program experiences. Both models substantially improved the accuracy of prediction relative to a baseline. Overall, we find that peer effects and solar economics are important to predicting referrals, and household demographic factors in lead loss prediction. Finally, we find that referrals are both the highest quality and largest source of LMI solar leads, providing a promising mechanism to expand LMI programs further.

customer acquisition costs↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Power Outage During Extreme Weather with EAGLE-I and NWS Datasets

Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, severe thunderstorms, and floods can significantly disrupt power grid systems, leading to electrical outages that result in inconvenience, economic losses, and life-threatening situations. There is a growing need for a robust and precise predictive model to forecast power outages, which will help prioritize emergency response before, during, and after extreme weather events. In this paper, we introduce machine-learning models that predict power outage risk at the state level during and after extreme weather events. We jointly utilized two publicly available datasets: the U.S. historical power outage data collected by the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I™) system, and the National Weather Service historical weather alert data sets. We highlight our initial result and discuss future work aimed at enhancing the model's robustness and accuracy for real-world applications.

Lee, Sangkeun (Matt)↗
DOE OSTI2023

High‐Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Preserve the Arctic

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been shown in climate models to reduce some impacts of global warming in the Arctic, including the loss of sea ice, permafrost thaw, and reduction of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass; SAI at high latitudes could preferentially target these impacts. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model to simulate two Arctic‐focused SAI strategies, which inject at 60°N latitude each spring with injection rates adjusted to either maintain September Arctic sea ice at 2030 levels (“Arctic Low”) or restore it to 2010 levels (“Arctic High”). Both simulations maintain or restore September sea ice to within 10% of their respective targets, reduce permafrost thaw, and increase GrIS surface mass balance by reducing runoff. Arctic High reduces these impacts more effectively than a globally focused SAI strategy that injects similar quantities of SO 2 at lower latitudes. However, Arctic‐focused SAI is not merely a “reset button” for the Arctic climate, but brings about a novel climate state, including changes to the seasonal cycles of Northern Hemisphere temperature and sea ice and less high‐latitude carbon uptake relative to SSP2‐4.5. Additionally, while Arctic‐focused SAI produces the most cooling near the pole, its effects are not confined to the Arctic, including detectable cooling throughout most of the northern hemisphere for both simulations, increased mid‐latitude sulfur deposition, and a southward shift of the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. For these reasons, it would be incorrect to consider Arctic‐focused SAI as “local” geoengineering, even when compared to a globally focused strategy.

Lee, Walker Raymond↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fidelity Comparison of Time-Bin and Fock State Encoding in Hybrid Quantum Systems Under Channel and Transduction Effects

Future quantum networks are expected to integrate a heterogeneous combination of quantum systems, owing to the diverse advantages offered by different physical platforms in terms of scalability, coherence times, and interfacing capabilities. Within the context of this emerging quantum communication paradigm, this paper presents an analytical comparison of two photonic encoding schemes—time-bin and Fock state (single rail)—in hybrid quantum systems where flying qubits are entangled with stationary matter qubits. We evaluate their resilience against fiber channel and quantum transduction effects by calculating the fidelity of the final states relative to their ideal forms. Employing the characteristic function approach, we derive analytical fidelity expressions and investigate their dependence on parameters such as transmissivity, noise levels, fiber length, and source generation success probability. Additionally, we simulate the scenario with a dedicated QuTiP software implementation to verify the validity of the theoretical models. Our findings reveal that due to its inherent single-mode structure, the Fock state encoding consistently outperforms time-bin encoding in fidelity, as this structure significantly minimizes susceptibility to losses compared to the two-mode nature of the time-bin scheme. This analysis offers valuable insights for future hybrid quantum communication and information processing applications.

Fiorini, Francesco [Pisa U.]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preliminary Design of Reactor Cavity Cooling System for a Horizontal Compact HTGR

The Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) is being designed by a multi-disciplinary team of nuclear, mechanical, and structural engineers under the support of a DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program’s Advanced Reactor Concepts-20 (ARC-20) award. The objective of this ARC-20 project is to deliver a conceptual design for the proposed MIGHTR in 3 years and support its commercialization as a safe and low-cost HTGR. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is responsible for the design and analysis of the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) as a safety system for passive decay heat removal of the reactor concept. This report documents the preliminary design study of the RCCS for the HC-HTGR. It includes the establishment of the design requirements, a high-level design study by initial scoping calculations, and preliminary performance calculations of the HC-HTGR RCCS design. Design requirements for the HC-HTGR RCCS have been established to guide preliminary design activities and scoping performance calculations. Initial scoping calculations including estimation of the water inventory, estimation of HVAC thermal capability, and a parametric study on loop dimensions by standalone RCCS analysis. Based on scoping calculation results, a set of baseline dimensions of the HC-HTGR RCCS was derived. A water panel modeling approach was investigated to explore various potential design options for the water panel under consideration for the HC-HTGR RCCS using RELAP5-3D. A test case study was performed to assess the prediction capability of two modeling approaches. The results were compared with CFD simulations conducted in constant RPV temperature and heat flux boundary conditions. It confirms the capability of the RELAP5-3D modeling approach to include all important heat transfer mechanisms expected in the HC-HTGR RCCS operation conditions. Then, a reference RELAP5-3D model for the 1/8 th of a compartment of the preliminary design of the HC-HTGR RCCS was developed. A preliminary performance analysis was conducted to evaluate single-phase natural circulation performance with different top tank temperature values and panel conduction performance in various operation conditions. From single-phase natural circulation performance analysis, the system operation mode was investigated in normal operating and limiting design conditions. It showed operation mode in a subcooled state with a proper top tank water cooling system. Parasitic heat loss by both internal air flow and RCCS was estimated, showing it satisfies maintaining below target maximum heat loss of the HC-HTGR RCCS. From the panel conduction performance analysis, two candidate materials for the riser tube such as carbon steel and stainless steel were compared in the thermal performance of HC-HTGR RCCS. From a single water panel test compared with CFD simulation results, it was confirmed that the current capability of the RELAP5-3D modeling approach for the water panel predicts the thermal conduction of two different materials of the water panel. Then, system-level thermal performance analysis was performed for 1/8 th of the compartment of the preliminary HC-HTGR RCCS design. It was first observed that the current preliminary HC-HTGR RCCS design had minimal impact on the overall thermal performance of the water panel by changing pipe material from carbon steel to stainless steel. From Argonne’s effort on the ongoing water-based NSTF testing program, several considerations other than the thermal performance point of view were addressed to be considered in selecting pipe materials.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Formulating energy density for designing practical lithium–sulfur batteries

We report the lithium–sulfur (Li–S) battery is one of the most promising battery systems due to its high theoretical energy density and low cost. Despite impressive progress in its development, there has been a lack of comprehensive analyses of key performance parameters affecting the energy density of Li–S batteries. Here, we analyse the potential causes of energy loss during battery operations. We identify two key descriptors (R weight and R energy ) that represent the mass- and energy-level compromise of the full-cell energy density, respectively. A formulation for energy density calculations is proposed based on critical parameters, including sulfur mass loading, sulfur mass ratio, electrolyte/sulfur ratio and negative-to-positive electrode material ratio. The current progress of Ah-level Li–S batteries is also summarized and analysed. Finally, future research directions, targets and prospects for designing practical high-performance Li–S batteries are proposed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decoherence Noise on the Superconducting Qubits Training Program

Quantum computing is a growing field with promising applications in a variety of fields such as healthcare, energy consumption, and cryptography. Quantum computing leverages the principles of quantum mechanics - superposition and entanglement. Yet, in the Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) Era - quantum systems face the major challenge of decoherence due to noise. This era is characterized by low amounts of qubits and high gate error. Decoherence leads to the loss of the quantum information stored in the qubit. Noise occurs with any quantum system that is exposed to the environment. It should also be noted that quantum information can be stored in the cavity - Fermilab specializes in coupling transmons to ultrahigh-Q SRF cavities. The Superconducting Qubits Training Program (SQTP) provides a visualization for beginners in quantum computing. The open quantum system simulated is a superconducting qubit (two-level atom) coupled to a microwave cavity whose excitations are photons. The Rotating Wave Approximation of the Jaynes-Cumming Hamiltonian is used. SQTP utilizes open-source Python-based libraries scQubits, NumPy, and QuTiP alongside the Master Lindblad equation. In this project, we study the different decay behaviors of qubits and cavities with collapse operators.

Lopez, Sara↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum Langevin theory for two coupled phase-conjugated electromagnetic waves

We provide a general macroscopic phenomenological formula of quantum Langevin equations for two coupled phase-conjugated electromagnetic fields with linear loss (gain) and complex nonlinear coupling coefficient. The macroscopic phenomenological formula is obtained from the coupling matrix to preserve the field commutation relations and correlations, which does not require knowing the microscopic details of light-matter interaction and internal atomic structures. To validate this phenomenological formula, we take spontaneous four-wave mixing in a double-Λ four-level atomic system as an example to numerically confirm that our macroscopic phenomenological result is consistent with that obtained from the microscopic Heisenberg-Langevin theory. We find that a complex-valued nonlinear coupling coefficient can lead to noises even without linear gain or loss. Lastly, we apply the quantum Langevin equations to study the effects of linear gain and loss, complex phase mismatching, as well as complex nonlinear coupling coefficient in entangled photon pair (biphoton) generation, particularly to their temporal quantum correlations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Construction of bias-preserving operations for pair-cat codes

Fault-tolerant quantum computation with depolarization error often requires demanding error threshold and resource overhead. If the operations can maintain high noise bias—dominated by dephasing error with small bit-flip error—we can achieve hardware-efficient fault-tolerant quantum computation with a more favorable error threshold. Distinct from two-level physical systems, multilevel systems (such as harmonic oscillators) can achieve a desirable set of bias-preserving quantum operations while using continuous engineered dissipation or Hamiltonian protection to stabilize to the encoding subspace. For example, cat codes stabilized with driven-dissipation or Kerr nonlinearity can possess a set of bias-preserving gates while continuously correcting bosonic dephasing error. However, cat codes are not compatible with continuous quantum error correction against excitation loss error, because it is challenging to continuously monitor the parity to correct photon loss errors. In this work, we generalize the bias-preserving operations to pair-cat codes, which can be regarded as a multimode generalization of cat codes, to be compatible with continuous quantum error correction against both bosonic loss and dephasing errors. In conclusion, our results open the door towards hardware-efficient robust quantum information processing with both bias-preserving operations and continuous quantum error correction simultaneously correcting bosonic loss and dephasing errors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Semi-Annual Report for Modular Integrated Gas High Temperature Reactor Development during Performance Period October 2021 - March 2022

Modular Integrated Gas High Temperature Reactor (MIGHTR) is being designed by a multidisciplinary team of nuclear, mechanical, and structural engineers under the support of a DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program’s Advanced Reactor Concepts-20 (ARC-20) award. The objective of this ARC-20 project is to deliver a conceptual design for the proposed MIGHTR in 3 years and support its commercialization as a safe and low-cost HTGR. Argonne National Laboratory is responsible for the design and analysis of the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) as a safety system for passive decay heat removal of the reactor concept. Work performed by Argonne also includes the thermal hydraulics analysis of the primary heat transport system including reactor pressure vessel (RPV) internals for normal operation, shutdown, and accident conditions. This first semi-annual report summarizes the progress made at Argonne on the two tasks since the start of the project. For the RCCS design task, high-level design work was performed including identification of design requirements for the conceptual MIGHTR RCCS and initial design calculations. The baseline dimensions of the MIGHTR RCCS were derived from scoping analysis results and preliminary steady state performance was estimated. At the initial stage of the primary system analysis task, the primary system thermal fluids model for the MIGHTR core was outlined to use a simplified two-dimensional model to predict the temperature distribution and coolant pressure losses in the fuel assembly blocks.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Planetary Defense System For Responsive Space Missions

As King et al succinctly write, “Collision between the Earth and small objects in the solar system are known to occur regularly, and can result in extinction-level events at their most energetic or more commonly widespread loss of life or economic destruction even for relatively low-energy impacts.” Currently, the JPL Sentry System and the NASA NEO Surveyor mission track, identify, and monitor potential asteroid threats. The JPL Sentry System4 is an automated collision monitoring system which scans the current asteroid catalog for potential impact trajectories with Earth. A 2017 study led by P. Tricarico titled “The near-Earth asteroid population from two decades of observations” analyzes the combined observations of nine leading asteroid surveys. The NASA NEO Surveyor mission seeks to identify 90% of near-Earth objects (NEO) with diameters greater than 140 meters (460 feet) within 10 years. The NEO Surveyor combines data from two infrared imaging detectors to measure NEO size, composition, shape, rotational state, and orbits. Recently, the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully altered the orbit of asteroid moon Dimorphos in 2022. This demonstrated that orbit alteration is possible. Thus, collisions between the Earth and asteroids are both likely and demonstrate potential for great harm. There is ongoing work to identify, catalog, and track potential threats. However, when a threat is identified there is not yet a system in place to target the threatening asteroid and defend the planet from potentially existential threats. Building on the DART Mission, we explore a planetary defense system to mitigate asteroid threats.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tri-Level Scheduling Model Considering Residential Demand Flexibility of Aggregated HVACs and EVs Under Distribution LMP

Residential loads, especially heating, ventilation and air conditioners (HVACs) and electric vehicles (EVs), have great potentials to provide demand flexibility which is an attribute of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB). Under this new paradigm, first, EV and HVAC aggregator models are developed in this paper to represent the fleet of GEBs, in which the aggregated parameters are obtained based on a new approach of data generation and least squares parameter estimation (DG-LSPE), which can deal with heterogeneous HVACs. Then, a tri-level bidding and dispatching framework is established based on competitive distribution operation with distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). Furthermore, the first two levels form a bilevel model to optimize the aggregators’ payment and to represent the interdependency between load aggregators and the distribution system operator (DSO) using DLMP, and the third level is to dispatch the optimal load aggregation to all residents by the proposed priority list-based demand dispatching algorithm. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 33-Bus system illustrate three main technical reasons of payment reduction due to demand flexibility: load shift, DLMP step changes, and power losses. They can be used as general guidelines for better decision-making for future planning and operation of demand response programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance Analyses of Supercritical Carbon Dioxide-Based Parabolic Trough Collectors with Double-Glazed Receivers

Supercritical carbon dioxide is becoming a hot research topic as a potential heat transfer fluid in parabolic trough concentrators since it enables operating the solar system at high temperatures for a higher quality of energy. However, the corresponding inflated thermal losses necessitate alternative receiver designs. This work examines four double-glazed receivers, with each annular space being evacuated or non-evacuated, in terms of the absorber tube's diameter (53-80 mm) and the diameter ratios of the two glass shells (1.2-2.0). An analytical model is developed and validated for this purpose, and the four designs are further examined using ground-level solar and meteorological measurements. The results demonstrate higher performance in the case of fully evacuating the receiver and using the smallest possible diameters of the three concentric cylinders, where the energy and exergy efficiencies reach 65.3 and 40.3%, respectively. Yet, evacuating only the inner annular space is sufficient to achieve virtually the same performance level. This energy efficiency decreases to 62% in case of increasing the tube diameter to 80 mm. As the operating temperature increases from 423 to 850 K, the specific thermal losses increase by 3.98-4.34 folds, depending on the receiver design. Double glazing the receivers is favorable only at high operating temperatures of sCO2, where the reduction in thermal losses overcomes the drop in optical efficiency. For an inlet sCO2 temperature of 850 K, thermal losses are reduced by 33.64 and 53.92%, compared to evacuated and non-evacuated single-glazed receivers, respectively. Throughout the year, the fully evacuated and fully non-evacuated double-glazed receivers have energy efficiencies of 54.96 and 52.39%, exergy efficiencies of 33.64 and 32.06%, and thermal losses of 348.8 and 402.5 W/m, respectively.

analytical model↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗