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Environmental drivers of increased ecosystem respiration in a warming tundra

Abstract Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon 1,2 . Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere 3,4 . The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain 5–7 . This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections 7,8 . Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Signatures of Non-universal Quantum Dynamics of Ultracold Chemical Reactions of Polar Alkali Dimer Molecules with Alkali Metal Atoms: Li( 2 S) + NaLi( a 3 Σ + ) → Na( 2 S) + Li 2 ( a 3 Σ u + )

Ultracold chemical reactions of weakly bound triplet-state alkali metal dimer molecules have recently attracted much experimental interest. Here we perform rigorous quantum scattering calculations with a new ab initio potential energy surface to explore the chemical reaction of spin-polarized NaLi(a 3 Σ + ) and Li( 2 S) to form Li 2 (a 3 Σ u + ) and Na( 2 S). The reaction is exothermic and proceeds readily at ultralow temperatures. Significantly, we observe strong sensitivity of the total reaction rate to small variations of the three-body part of the Li 2 Na interaction at short range, which we attribute to a relatively small number of open Li 2 (a 3 Σ u + ) product channels populated in the reaction. This provides the first signature of highly non-universal dynamics seen in rigorous quantum reactive scattering calculations of an ultracold exothermic insertion reaction involving a polar alkali dimer molecule, opening up the possibility of probing microscopic interactions in atom+molecule collision complexes via ultracold reactive scattering experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

QM7-X, a comprehensive dataset of quantum-mechanical properties spanning the chemical space of small organic molecules

We introduce QM7-X, a comprehensive dataset of 42 physicochemical properties for ≈4.2 million equilibrium and non-equilibrium structures of small organic molecules with up to seven non-hydrogen (C, N, O, S, Cl) atoms. To span this fundamentally important region of chemical compound space (CCS), QM7-X includes an exhaustive sampling of (meta-)stable equilibrium structures—comprised of constitutional/structural isomers and stereoisomers, e.g., enantiomers and diastereomers (including cis-/trans- and conformational isomers)—as well as 100 non-equilibrium structural variations thereof to reach a total of ≈4.2 million molecular structures. Computed at the tightly converged quantum-mechanical PBE0+MBD level of theory, QM7-X contains global (molecular) and local (atom-in-a-molecule) properties ranging from ground state quantities (such as atomization energies and dipole moments) to response quantities (such as polarizability tensors and dispersion coefficients). By providing a systematic, extensive, and tightly-converged dataset of quantum-mechanically computed physicochemical properties, we expect that QM7-X will play a critical role in the development of next-generation machine-learning based models for exploring greater swaths of CCS and performing in silico design of molecules with targeted properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Thermal Optimization of a Silicon Carbide, Half-Bridge Power Module

This project describes the modeling process to design the packaging and heat exchanger for a half-bridge wide-bandgap (WBG) power semiconductor module. The module uses two silicon carbide, metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) devices per switch position that are soldered to an aluminum nitride, direct-bond copper (DBC) substrate. A baseplate cooling configuration (e.g., no thermal grease) is used along with a water-ethylene glycol, jet-impingement-style heat exchanger. The heat exchanger was designed to be fabricated using prototyping equipment from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, complies with automotive standards (for minimal channel sizes, flow rates, and coolant), and considers reliability aspects (i.e., erosion/corrosion). Device-scale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used first to design the slot jet impingement cooling configuration and compute the effective heat transfer coefficient (HTC) of the concept. The computed HTCs are then used as boundary conditions for a finite element study to optimize the package geometry (e.g., device layout and baseplate thickness) to minimize thermal resistance and minimize temperature variation between the module's four devices. Finally, a fluid manifold is designed to generate the slot jets and cool the devices. Module-scale CFD predicts a relatively low junction-to-fluid thermal resistance of 16.7 mm2 K/W, a 1.4 degrees C temperature variation between devices, and a total pressure drop of 5,860 Pa (0.85 psi) for the design. The thermal resistance of the module design is about 67% lower than the 2015 BMW i3 power electronics/modules thermal resistance.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Impact of Pycnonuclear Fusion Uncertainties on the Cooling of Accreting Neutron Star Crusts

Abstract The observation of X-rays during quiescence from transiently accreting neutron stars provides unique clues about the nature of dense matter. This, however, requires extensive modeling of the crusts and matching the results to observations. The pycnonuclear fusion reaction rates implemented in these models are theoretically calculated by extending phenomenological expressions and have large uncertainties spanning many orders of magnitude. We present the first sensitivity studies of these pycnonuclear fusion reactions in realistic network calculations. We also couple the reaction network with the thermal evolution code dStar to further study their impact on the neutron star cooling curves in quiescence. Varying the pycnonuclear fusion reaction rates alters the depth at which nuclear heat is deposited although the total heating remains constant. The enhancement of the pycnonuclear fusion reaction rates leads to an overall shallower deposition of nuclear heat. The impurity factors are also altered depending on the type of ashes deposited on the crust. These total changes correspond to a variation of up to 9 eV in the modeled cooling curves. While this is not sufficient to explain the shallow heat source, it is comparable to the observational uncertainties and can still be important for modeling the neutron star crust.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Water chemistry in flume channel and hyporheic zone (i.e., porewater) associated with: “Rethinking Aerobic Respiration in the Hyporheic Zone Under Variation in Carbon and Nitrogen Stoichiometry”

Dissolved oxygen (DO), total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), molecular data for organic matter, and biochemical reactions for surface water and porewater (i.e., hyporheic zone) collected from a water recirculating flume located at the University of Texas, Austin. The flume contained real river water from Lower Colorado River(Austin, TX) and clean sand. Hyporheic exchange in the flume was induced through The study aims to understand relationships between aerobic metabolism of organic matter and molecular characteristics of organic matter, such as thermodynamic signature and nitrogen content, through the extent of the hyporheic zone at 10 cm- resolution, and through time. During the experiment, organic matter (dry leaves) was added to the flume and removed after 24 hours. The water samples were collected before the addition of leaves, at the time of removal of leaves, and at hour 72. The water samples were analyzed using ultrahigh resolution Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR-MS) and total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TN) analysis. Dissolved oxygen content throughout the surface water and the hyporheic zone of the flume was measured with a large planar optode. This data package is associated with the publication ’ Rethinking Aerobic Respiration in the Hyporheic Zone Under Variation in Carbon and Nitrogen Stoichiometry’ published in Environmental Science and Technology (Turețcaia et al., 2023 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.3c04765). The dataset is comprised of five folders (1) Diss_O2_pic, (2) input_files (3) output_files; (4) python_code; and (5) R_code . Diss_O2_pic contains siximages of dissolved oxygen distribution in a bedform at hours 0, 24, and 72 of the experiment conducted in a large recirculation flume. Images are in separate R and G channels (i.e., RGB). The input_files contains (1) a csv file with FTICR peaks identified within each sample, (2) a csv file with molecular information pertinent to FTICR data with Gibbs free energy calculations adjusted for environmental temperature, (3) a csv file containing concentrations of non-purgeable organic carbon measured throughout the experiment , (4) a csv file containing concentrations of total nitrogen measured throughout the experiment, (5) a csv file containing total biochemical reactions (i.e., transformations) identified in the dataset, (6) a csv containing transformation profiles, and (7) a csv file containing transformations with formulas, and (8) a jpg file with schematic representation of locations for sample collection. The output_files contains (1) and xlsx file containing percent biochemical reactions containing nitrogen identified across all 39 sample, (2) a csv file of merged FTICR data and molecular information files, (3) a csv files containing average Gibbs free energy within sampling domains and at each sampling location, (4) a csv file with average concentrations of dissolved oxygen across sampling locations at hour 0, (5) a csv file with average concentrations of dissolved oxygen across sampling locations at hour 24, (6) a csv file with average concentrations of dissolved oxygen across sampling locations at hour 72, (7) a csv file with percent chemical classes identified across sampling locations at hour 0, (8) a csv file with percent chemical classes identified across sampling locations at hour 24, (9) a csv file with percent chemical classes identified across sampling locations at hour 72, and (10) a csv file containing percent nitrogen containing biochemical reactions identified across sampling locations at hours 0, 24, and 72. The python_code contains seven ipynb files which are Jupyter Notebooks used for data analysis and figures generation. The R_code contains 3 R files with R code used for data analysis and figures generation. This data package contains the processed data used in the associated manuscript. This data has not been previously published.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High resolution depth profiling using near-total-reflection hard x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

By adjusting the incidence angle of incoming x rays near the critical angle of x-ray total reflection, photoelectron intensity is strongly modulated due to the variation of x-ray penetration depth. Photoelectron spectroscopy combined with near-total reflection exhibits tunable surface sensitivity, providing depth-resolved information. In this Review, we first describe the experimental setup and specific data analysis process. We then review three different examples that show the broad application of this method. Furthermore, the emphasis is on its applications correlated to oxide heterostructures, especially quantitative depth analyses of compositions and electronic states. In the last part, we discuss the limitations of this technique, mostly in terms of the range of samples that can be studied.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Distinct evolutionary lineages of Schistocephalus parasites infecting co-occurring sculpin and stickleback fishes in Alaska

Sculpins (coastrange and slimy) and sticklebacks (ninespine and threespine) are widely distributed fishes cohabiting 2 south-central Alaskan lakes (Aleknagik and Iliamna), and all these species are parasitized by cryptic diphyllobothriidean cestodes in the genus Schistocephalus. The goal of this investigation was to test for host-specific parasitic relationships between sculpins and sticklebacks based upon morphological traits (segment counts) and sequence variation across the NADH1 gene. A total of 446 plerocercoids was examined. Large, significant differences in mean segment counts were found between cestodes in sculpin (mean = 112; standard deviation [S.D.] = 15) and stickleback (mean = 86; S.D. = 9) hosts within and between lakes. Nucleotide sequence divergence between parasites from sculpin and stickleback hosts was 20.5%, and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis recovered 2 well-supported clades of cestodes reflecting intermediate host family (i.e. sculpin, Cottidae vs stickleback, Gasterosteidae). Our findings point to the presence of a distinct lineage of cryptic Schistocephalus in sculpins from Aleknagik and Iliamna lakes that warrants further investigation to determine appropriate evolutionary and taxonomic recognition.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Aircraft Measurements from a U.S. Western Wildfire Demonstrating Day and Night Differences in the Chemical Composition and Optical Properties of Biomass Burning Aerosols and Their Atmospheric Evolution

The composition and transformations of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) have been measured onboard the NOAA Twin Otter research aircraft during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field study. Here, we analyze real-time aerosol mass spectrometry measurements across three flights during the afternoon, late afternoon, and night of August 28, 2019, for one midsized wildfire. Analysis of several metrics showed that the aerosol composition and optical properties varied depending on the burning conditions at the fire zone and the time of day the BBA was emitted, with substantial variations in the available sunlight. The total aerosol mass loadings were dominated by organic components with a much smaller contribution from inorganic species. A gradual buildup of organic material was observed during the afternoon as the plume aged, indicating the condensation of photochemically formed low-volatility oxidized organic compounds. Highly hygroscopic ammonium nitrate was the main inorganic component, suggesting potential water content in BBA particles and the likelihood of their aqueous-phase reactivity. Depletions of particle-phase NO 3 – and Cl – relative to carbon monoxide were observed in the late afternoon and nighttime plumes, respectively, aligning with known gas-particle partitioning thermodynamics and the heterogeneous chemistry of dissolved nitrate and chloride. The wavelength-dependent light absorption by aerosol species was higher for the plume sampled at night and showed no significant changes with plume age, despite observed trends in composition and mass downwind. These differences in particle composition and optical properties demonstrate that the processes involved in BBA aging are not uniform for the same wildfire over the course of the day and depend highly on when the BBA was emitted, as well as the burning phase at the emissions source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A database of hourly wind speed and modeled generation for US wind plants based on three meteorological models

Abstract In 2022, wind generation accounted for ~10% of total electricity generation in the United States. As wind energy accounts for a greater portion of total energy, understanding geographic and temporal variation in wind generation is key to many planning, operational, and research questions. However, in-situ observations of wind speed are expensive to make and rarely shared publicly. Meteorological models are commonly used to estimate wind speeds, but vary in quality and are often challenging to access and interpret. The Plant-Level US multi-model WIND and generation (PLUSWIND) data repository helps to address these challenges. PLUSWIND provides wind speeds and estimated generation on an hourly basis at almost all wind plants across the contiguous United States from 2018–2021. The repository contains wind speeds and generation based on three different meteorological models: ERA5, MERRA2, and HRRR. Data are publicly accessible in simple csv files. Modeled generation is compared to regional and plant records, which highlights model biases and errors and how they differ by model, across regions, and across time frames.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A contactless in situ EFISH method for measuring electrostatic potential profile of semiconductor/electrolyte junctions

In photoelectrochemical cells, promising devices for directly converting solar energy into storable chemical fuels, the spatial variation of the electrostatic potential across the semiconductor–electrolyte junction is the key parameter that determines the cell performance. In principle, electric field induced second harmonic generation (EFISH) provides a contactless in situ spectroscopic tool to measure the spatial variation of electrostatic potential. However, the total second harmonic generation (SHG) signal contains the contributions of the EFISH signals of semiconductor space charge layer and the electric double layer, in addition to the SHG signal of the electrode surface. The interference of these complex quantities hinders their analysis. In this work, to understand and deconvolute their contributions to the total SHG signals, bias-dependent SHG measurements are performed on the rutile TiO2(100)–electrolyte junction as a function of light polarization and crystal azimuthal angle (angle of the incident plane relative to the crystal [001] axis). A quadratic response between SHG intensity and the applied potential is observed in both the accumulation and depletion regions of TiO2. The relative phase difference and amplitude ratio are extracted at selected azimuthal angles and light polarizations. At 0° azimuthal angle and s-in–p-out polarization, the SHG intensity minimum has the best match with the TiO2 flatband potential due to the orthogonal relative phase difference between bias-dependent and bias-independent SHG terms. We further measure the pH-dependent flatband potential and probe the photovoltage under open circuit conditions using the EFISH technique, demonstrating the capability of this contactless method for measuring electrostatic potential at semiconductor–electrolyte junctions.

Chemistry↗

Dynamic, symmetry-preserving, and hardware-adaptable circuits for quantum computing many-body states and correlators of the Anderson impurity model

We present a hardware-reconfigurable ansatz on N q -qubits for the variational preparation of many-body states of the Anderson impurity model (AIM) with N imp + N bath = N q /2 sites, which conserves total charge and spin z component within each variational search subspace. The many-body ground state of the AIM is determined as the minimum over all minima of O(N$^2_ q$) distinct charge-spin sectors. Hamiltonian expectation values are shown to require ω(N q ) < N meas. $\leqslant$ O(N imp N bath ) symmetry-preserving, parallelizable measurement circuits, each amenable to postselection. To obtain the one-particle impurity Green’s function we show how initial Krylov vectors can be computed via midcircuit measurement and how Lanczos iterations can be computed using the symmetry-preserving ansatz. For a single-impurity Anderson model with a number of bath sites increasing from one to seven, we show using numerical emulation that the ease of variational ground-state preparation is suggestive of linear scaling in circuit depth and subquartic scaling in optimizer complexity. We therefore expect that, combined with time-dependent methods for Green’s function computation, our ansatz provides a useful tool to account for electronic correlations on early fault-tolerant processors. Finally, with a view towards computing real materials properties of interest like magnetic susceptibilities and electron-hole propagators, we provide a straightforward method to compute many-body, time-dependent correlation functions using a combination of time evolution, midcircuit measurement-conditioned operations, and the Hadamard test.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Accuracy of ghost rotationally invariant slave-boson and dynamical mean field theory as a function of the impurity-model bath size

Here, we compare the accuracy of the ghost rotationally invariant slave-boson (g-RISB) theory and dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) on the single-band Hubbard model, as a function of the number of bath sites in the embedding impurity Hamiltonian. Our benchmark calculations confirm that the accuracy of g-RISB can be systematically improved by increasing the number of bath sites, similar to DMFT. With a few bath sites, we observe that g-RISB is systematically more accurate than DMFT for the ground-state observables. On the other hand, the relative accuracy of these methods is generally comparable for the quasiparticle weight and the spectral function. As expected, we observe that g-RISB satisfies the variational principle in infinite dimensions, as the total energy decreases monotonically towards the exact value as a function of the number of bath sites, suggesting that the g-RISB wave function may approach the exact ground state in infinite dimensions. Our results suggest that the g-RISB is a promising method for first-principles simulations of strongly correlated matter, which can capture the behavior of both static and dynamical observables, at a relatively low computational cost.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Antioxidant Activity, Microbiological Quality, and Acceptability of Spontaneously Fermented Shrimp Sausage (Litopenaeus vannamei)

Fermented shrimp sausages are prepared spontaneously with Litopenaeus vannamei as raw material. Shrimp is one of the marine sources with rich chitosan as bioactive compounds, antioxidants, vitamin E, and probiotic lactic acid bacteria (LAB) produced by fermentation processes. This study aimed to analyze the variations in antioxidant activity, vitamin E content, total LAB, total pathogenic bacteria, pH, and acceptability of shrimp sausage produced at different fermentation times. A completely randomized experimental design study was performed using four levels of exposure time, including control (0 days), 1, 2, and 3 days. The treatment was conducted spontaneously with 1.2% salt concentration, a drying temperature of 50°C for 3 h, and fermentation at 35°C. The evaluated parameters included the antioxidant activity measured with the radical 2,2-azino-bis (3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulphonic acid) method, vitamin E levels by high-performance liquid chromatography, total LAB with total plate count, and Escherichia coli bacteria by the most probable number method. Salmonella sp. and Staphylococcus aureus were estimated by the identification method. A pH meter was used to assess acidity, and hedonic organoleptic testing was performed for taste, aroma, color, and texture. The results show significant differences in antioxidant activity, vitamin E, and shrimp sausage acceptability at varied fermentation times p ≤ 0.05 . However, the best formulation was obtained with the first-day fermented shrimp sausage, as shown by its bioactive content and the level of acceptability.

Afifah, Diana N.↗

Remote sensing of seasonal variation of LAI and fAPAR in a deciduous broadleaf forest

Climate change is affecting the phenology of terrestrial ecosystems. In deciduous forests, phenology in leaf area index (LAI) is the primary driver of seasonal variation in the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), which drives photosynthesis. Remote sensing has been widely used to estimate LAI and fAPAR. However, while many studies have examined both empirical and model-based relationships among LAI, fAPAR, and spectral vegetation indices (SVI) from remote sensing, few studies have systematically and empirically examined how relationships among these variables change over the growing season. In this study, we examine how and why seasonal-scale covariation differs among time series of remotely sensed SVIs and both LAI and fAPAR based on current understanding and theory. To do this we use newly available remote sensing data sets in combination with time series of in-situ measurements and a canopy radiative transfer model to analyze how seasonal variation in canopy and environmental conditions affect relationships among remotely sensed SVIs, LAI, and fAPAR at a temperate deciduous forest site in central Massachusetts. Our results show that accounting for seasonal variation in canopy shadowing, which is driven by variation in solar zenith angle, improved remote sensing-based estimates of LAI, fAPAR, and daily total APAR. Specifically, we show that the phenology of SVIs is strongly influenced by seasonal variation in near infrared (NIR) reflectance arising from systematic variation in the canopy shadow fraction that is independent of changes in LAI or fAPAR. Therefore, results of this work provide a refined basis for understanding how remote sensing can be used to monitor and model the phenology of LAI, fAPAR, APAR, and gross primary productivity in temperate deciduous forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fine-scale evaluation of two standard 16S rRNA gene amplicon primer pairs for analysis of total prokaryotes and archaeal nitrifiers in differently managed soils

The advance of high-throughput molecular biology tools allows in-depth profiling of microbial communities in soils, which possess a high diversity of prokaryotic microorganisms. Amplicon-based sequencing of 16S rRNA genes is the most common approach to studying the richness and composition of soil prokaryotes. To reliably detect different taxonomic lineages of microorganisms in a single soil sample, an adequate pipeline including DNA isolation, primer selection, PCR amplification, library preparation, DNA sequencing, and bioinformatic post-processing is required. Besides DNA sequencing quality and depth, the selection of PCR primers and PCR amplification reactions arguably have the largest influence on the results. This study tested the performance and potential bias of two primer pairs, i.e., 515F (Parada)-806R (Apprill) and 515F (Parada)-926R (Quince) in the standard pipelines of 16S rRNA gene Illumina amplicon sequencing protocol developed by the Earth Microbiome Project (EMP), against shotgun metagenome-based 16S rRNA gene reads. The evaluation was conducted using five differently managed soils. We observed a higher richness of soil total prokaryotes by using reverse primer 806R compared to 926R, contradicting to in silico evaluation results. Both primer pairs revealed various degrees of taxon-specific bias compared to metagenome-derived 16S rRNA gene reads. Nonetheless, we found consistent patterns of microbial community variation associated with different land uses, irrespective of primers used. Total microbial communities, as well as ammonia oxidizing archaea (AOA), the predominant ammonia oxidizers in these soils, shifted along with increased soil pH due to agricultural management. In the unmanaged low pH plot abundance of AOA was dominated by the acid-tolerant NS-Gamma clade, whereas limed agricultural plots were dominated by neutral-alkaliphilic NS-Delta/NS-Alpha clades. This study stresses how primer selection influences community composition and highlights the importance of primer selection for comparative and integrative studies, and that conclusions must be drawn with caution if data from different sequencing pipelines are to be compared.

16S rRNA gene amplicon Illumina sequencing↗