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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Features Predict Ground Motions During Repeating Caldera Collapse Sequence

Abstract Applying machine learning to continuous acoustic emissions, signals previously deemed noise, from laboratory faults and slowly slipping subduction‐zone faults, demonstrates hidden signatures are emitted that describe physical details, including fault displacement and friction. However, no evidence currently exists to demonstrate that similar hidden signals occur during seismogenic stick‐slip on earthquake faults—the damaging earthquakes of most societal interest. We show that continuous seismic emissions emitted during the 2018 multi‐month caldera collapse sequence at the Kı̄lauea volcano in Hawai'i contain hidden signatures characterizing the earthquake cycle. Multi‐spectral data features extracted from 30 s intervals of the continuous seismic emission are used to train a gradient boosted tree regression model to predict the GNSS‐derived contemporaneous surface displacement and time‐to‐failure of the upcoming collapse event. This striking result suggests that at least some faults emit such signals and provide a potential path to characterizing the instantaneous and future behavior of earthquake faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability

The Cray XK7 Titan was the top supercomputer system in the world for a long time and remained critically important throughout its nearly seven year life. It was an interesting machine from a reliability viewpoint as most of its power came from 18,688 GPUs whose operation was forced to execute three rework cycles, two on the GPU mechanical assembly and one on the GPU circuitboards. We write about the last rework cycle and a reliability analysis of over 100,000 years of GPU lifetimes during Titan’s 6-year-long productive period. Using time between failures analysis and statistical survival analysis techniques, we find that GPU reliability is dependent on heat dissipation to an extent that strongly correlates with detailed nuances of the cooling architecture and job scheduling. We describe the history, data collection, cleaning, and analysis and give recommendations for future supercomputing systems. We make the data and our analysis codes publicly available.

Ostrouchov, George↗
DOE OSTI2020

CoREC: Scalable and Resilient In-memory Data Staging for In-situ Workflows

The dramatic increase in the scale of current and planned high-end HPC systems is leading new challenges, such as the growing costs of data movement and IO, and the reduced mean time between failures (MTBF) of system components. In-situ workflows, i.e., executing the entire application workflows on the HPC system, have emerged as an attractive approach to address data-related challenges by moving computations closer to the data, and staging-based frameworks have been effectively used to support in-situ workflows at scale. However, the resilience of these staging-based solutions has not been addressed, and they remain susceptible to expensive data failures. Furthermore, naive use of data resilience techniques such as n-way replication and erasure codes can impact latency and/or result in significant storage overheads. In this article, we present CoREC, a scalable and resilient in-memory data staging runtime for large-scale in-situ workflows. CoREC uses a novel hybrid approach that combines dynamic replication with erasure coding based on data access patterns. It also leverages multiple levels of replications and erasure coding to support diverse data resiliency requirements. Furthermore, the article presents optimizations for load balancing and conflict-avoiding encoding, and a low overhead, lazy data recovery scheme. We have implemented the CoREC runtime and have deployed with the DataSpaces staging service on leadership class computing machines and present an experimental evaluation in the article. Here, the experiments demonstrate that CoREC can tolerate in-memory data failures while maintaining low latency and sustaining high overall storage efficiency at large scales.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability

George Ostrouchov, Don Maxwell, Rizwan Ashraf, Mallikarjun Shankar, and James Rogers. 2020. GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability. In Proceedings of the International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis (SC '20). Association for Computing Machinery, New York, NY, USA. Data and code for SC20 paper about Titan GPU reliability analysis: https://github.com/olcf/TitanGPULife. Includes R code to generate graphics for paper and additional analyses. See code/README for instructions. Includes original Titan GPU reliability data on over 100,000 collective hours of operation: data/titan.gpu.history.txt - history data, data/titan.service.txt - service nodes for exclusion. Includes output data files produced by code/TitanGPUmodel.Rmd: data/gc_full.csv - cleaned up data (see paper and R code); data/gc_summary_loc.csv - one record per GPU (variables: SN, time, nlife, nloc, last, col, row, cage, slot, node, max_loc_events, time_max_loc, dbe, dbe_loc, otb, otb_loc, out, batch, days, years, dead, dead_otb, dead_dbe) (see paper and R code). Includes .Rmd analysis document as TitanGPUmode.html. Includes Python code to process data/gc_full.csv into graphics from time-between-failure analyses: See code/tbf-analyses/README for instructions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale-Informed Modeling of High Temperature Component Response with Uncertainty Quantification

This report summarizes a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop and deploy constitutive models targeted at predicting the life of Grade 91 alloy components subjected to high temperature environments typical of those that structural components in advanced nuclear reactors would experience. Two distinct, but complementary constitutive modeling approaches have been taken here. The first employs a phenomenological viscoplastic model for which parameters have been calibrated based on experimental data for a wide range of Grade 91 alloy that has undergone a variety of processing. A Bayesian approach was used to derive distributions of uncertain parameters for this model based on this data set. The second approach is a reduced order model suitable for engineering-scale analysis that is based on the results of a large set of mesoscale simulations. Mesoscale models allow for the microstructure and composition of a particular alloy to be directly taken into account in the computation of the viscoplastic response, but are computationally expensive, which makes it impractical to directly call those models for the material constitutive response in an engineering-scale simulation. The reduced-order representation of the response of the underlying model used here allows for an engineering-scale model to take into account the characteristics of the underlying microstructure, while only incurring a reasonable computational expense. Both of these approaches have different strengths, and are applicable for different parts of the design/analysis process. The phenomenological models can be readily parameterized based on a set of experimental data for a given class of materials and used for scoping calculations. Once a specific material is chosen and adequately characterized, the reduced order models can accurately predict the response of that specific alloy, and because the models are based on predictive models of the underlying microstructure, they can be used to more confidently predict the response under conditions in regions where there is limited experimental data. Both of these models have been integrated in the Grizzly code, which is used here to perform proof-of-concept uncertainty quantification analyses of a simple component under prototypical conditions. The built- in stochastic analysis capabilities in the MOOSE framework that Grizzly is built on are used here to run large sets of simulations for this uncertainty quantification analysis. As would be expected, because the reduced order models are developed for a much more tightly defined alloy, they predict tighter distributions of the time to failure than the phenomenological models, which are calibrated to a broader set of data. Also important is that these simulations demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach can be successfully deployed to propagate uncertainties from the material scale to practical engineering-scale component simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Co-Optimization of Boost Converter Reliability and Volumetric Power Density [Brief]

Optimized designs were achieved using a genetic algorithm to evaluate multi-objective trade space, including Mean-Time-Between-Failure (MTBF) and volumetric power density. This work provides a foundational platform that can be used to optimize additional power converters, such as an inverter for the EV traction drive system as well as trade-offs in thermal management due to the use of different device substrate materials.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

High Efficiency OLED Light Engine

LED Specialists has accomplished the program objective in designing a high efficiency OLED light engine combining high-performance OLED panels in the 5W-8W range. We achieved our goal by using an Active-Clamp Flyback circuit topology using state-of-the-art electronics. Evaluation testing of our second-generation prototype PC board has demonstrated an efficiency rating of 93% and dimming capability between 100% and 5% of OLED brightness. A reliability analysis of the design shows it to have a predicted Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) of approximately 1,000,000 hours.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Customer-Focused Key Performance Indicators for Electric Vehicle Charging

To systematically improve the public charging experience, EV charging industry stakeholders need to define and measure it precisely. Many stakeholders currently measure aspects of the charging experience, but they typically employ metrics that are either operational in nature, such as charger uptime and mean time between failures, or composite customer satisfaction indices. To improve the customer experience most effectively, the industry needs metrics that define the charging experience from the perspective of the customer, not business operations. Furthermore, industry practitioners need granular metrics to know what specific aspects of the charging experience need improvement. This report defines such customer-focused metrics, called key performance indicators (KPIs).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Broad Spectrum Antifungal Pond Protection

To decrease operating costs associated with fungal infections in algal crops used for biofuel production, we developed bacterial consortia that displayed antifungal properties. These bacteria were grown in culture with algae species without any additional operating costs or need for re-inoculation with bacteria. These co-cultures maintained their antifungal properties for the entirety of the project period and increased mean time to failure (MTTF) by up to 350% when challenged with high levels of fungal pests. Multiple fungal and fungus-like pests were tested and the consortia showed efficacy against three species.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microscopic Measurement: Need for Nuclear Material Sample Specimen Characterization Capability

The Surveillance, Fabrication, and Off-Site Operations team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is beginning an update to the nuclear material machining lab in Superblock. Plutonium and other nuclear materials tend to accelerate the aging process for equipment and machines that would otherwise be maintainable for long lives. They have their lifespans shortened from deteriorated seals, embrittled polymer components, accelerated corrosion, and damage to electronics from exposure to radioactive materials. The cost of installation of equipment into a glove box (GB) tends to outstrip the cost of the equipment itself. Due to the magnification of cost, the historical approach to equipment installs has been to purchase and install the highest-quality and most robust equipment available to maximize time between failures and updates. To make room for the installation of a new lathe, the inspection GB is being moved to a different location within the machining lab. As part of the overall effort, the equipment within the inspection GB is being revisited. Current measurement capabilities are antiquated and starting to become problematic due to age. Advances in metrology are sought for more comprehensive characterization of scientific samples. This document aims to identify several options for the replacement of current measurement equipment and identify a system for purchase and eventual installation. The intention is not to select the cheapest system, but rather to identify a system that best meets the needs of both the operators and principal investigators (PI). Following the convention of the SYSM-5620 Design Thinking and System Engineering, it was determined that a laser confocal measurement system from Keyence is the most suitable option for our programmatic need. Form factor, capability, and maintainability were considered. Along with stakeholder input, to ensure the best decision for the Nuclear Material Technology Program.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Customer-Focused Key Performance Indicators for Electric Vehicle Charging

To systematically improve the public charging experience, EV charging industry stakeholders need to define and measure it precisely. Many stakeholders currently measure aspects of the charging experience, but they typically employ metrics that are either operational in nature, such as charger uptime and mean time between failures, or composite customer satisfaction indices. To improve the customer experience most effectively, the industry needs metrics that define the charging experience from the perspective of the customer, not business operations. Furthermore, industry practitioners need granular metrics to know what specific aspects of the charging experience need improvement. This report defines such customer-focused metrics, called key performance indicators (KPIs).

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Framework for Maintenance Scheduling Based on Dynamic Preventive Intervals and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Data-based prognostic methods exploit sensor data to forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial settings to optimize the scheduling of maintenance actions. However, implementing sensors may not be cost-effective or practical for all components. Traditional preventive approaches are not based on sensor data; however, they schedule maintenance at equally spaced intervals, which is not a cost-effective approach since the distribution of the time between failures changes with the degradation state of other parts or changes in working conditions. This study introduces a novel framework comprising two maintenance scheduling strategies. In the absence of sensor data, we propose a novel dynamic preventive policy that adjusts intervention intervals based on the most recent failure data. When sensor data are available, a method for RUL prediction, designated k-LSTM-GFT, is enhanced to dynamically account for RUL prediction uncertainty. The results demonstrate that dynamic preventive maintenance can yield cost reductions of up to 51.8% compared to conventional approaches. The predictive approach optimizes the exploitation of RUL, achieving costs that are only 3–5% higher than the minimum cost achievable while ensuring the safety of critical systems since all of the failures are avoided.

Nunes, Pedro (ORCID:0000000180012172)↗
DOE OSTI2025

ChargeX KPIs Transition to SAE

To systematically improve the public charging experience, EV charging industry stakeholders need to define and measure it precisely. Many stakeholders currently measure aspects of the charging experience, but they typically employ metrics that are either operational in nature, such as charger uptime and mean time between failures, or composite customer satisfaction indices. To improve the customer experience most effectively, the industry needs metrics that define the charging experience from the perspective of the customer, not business operations. Furthermore, industry practitioners need granular metrics to know what specific aspects of the charging experience need improvement. This presentation gives an overview of the key performance indicators (KPIs) defined by the ChargeX Consortium.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind Turbine Gearbox Failure Detection Through Cumulative Sum of Multivariate Time Series Data

The wind energy industry is continuously improving their operational and maintenance practice for reducing the levelized costs of energy. Anticipating failures in wind turbines enables early warnings and timely intervention, so that the costly corrective maintenance can be prevented to the largest extent possible. It also avoids production loss owing to prolonged unavailability. One critical element allowing early warning is the ability to accumulate small-magnitude symptoms resulting from the gradual degradation of wind turbine systems. Inspired by the cumulative sum control chart method, this study reports the development of a wind turbine failure detection method with such early warning capability. Specifically, the following key questions are addressed: what fault signals to accumulate, how long to accumulate, what offset to use, and how to set the alarm-triggering control limit. We apply the proposed approach to 2 years’ worth of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data recorded from five wind turbines. We focus our analysis on gearbox failure detection, in which the proposed approach demonstrates its ability to anticipate failure events with a good lead time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Testing Recommendations for Thermal Failure Analysis

Minimizing ranges of uncertainty in failure QOIs is vital for making informed engineering decisions. To improve our decision-making ability, it is necessary to have a QOI representation that captures more complex failure modes. Capturing the physics of complex time-dependent temperature failure in explicit detail can be computationally and experimentally expensive. To avoid this blooming of complication and costs, an empirical QOI component-level failure/damage model may be sufficient to help identify component-level failure. In this context, failure and damage are abstractions of more complicated processes that lead to the cessation of normal operating behavior, not a representation of mechanical damage, such as void formation. Such a model requires minimal increases in computational cost and experimental burden. The proposed QOI serves as an indicator that something has likely failed, similar to the previous critical failure temperatures or pressures. This QOI will not replace any existing failure QOIs. It will be calculated alongside them, allowing for preservation of legacy style QOI measurements with new context from the new QOI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emergence of Diverse Failure Patterns in Weathering‐Induced Landslides: Insights From Particle Finite Element Simulations

Weathering is a fundamental driver of landslide evolution over geological timescales. Despite its ubiquity and importance, quantifying how weathering drives the progressive destabilization of rock slopes remains challenging. In this work, we develop a unified computational framework based on the particle finite element method to investigate the evolution of weathering‐induced landslides, from long‐term weathering to short‐term slope failure and runout dynamics. The framework integrates key processes, including weathering front propagation, time‐dependent strength degradation, rupture surface development, and post‐failure runout dynamics. Through numerical simulation experiments, we elucidate how interactions among weathering characteristics (type, intensity, and rate law), bedrock strength, fracture distribution, and slope geometry govern the failure modes and kinematics of weathering‐induced landslides. Simulations show that matrix‐dominated weathering leads to shallow translational failures, whereas fracture‐dominated weathering produces deep‐seated rotational and compound landslides. Pre‐existing fractures and slope morphology also strongly influence the movement of destabilized landmasses, affecting the failure pattern (e.g., kinematic mode and rupture surface geometry) and post‐failure behavior (e.g., runout velocity). We further demonstrate that the failure time and volume of weathered slopes are governed by the competition between gravitational driving forces and cohesive resisting forces during progressive destabilization. These findings provide new insights into the fundamental mechanisms that drive the emergence of diverse failure patterns of weathering‐induced landslides with important implications for landslide hazard assessment.

Wang, Liang [Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗