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NASA NTRS2019

Fast-Time Simulation for Evaluating the Impact of Estimated Flight Ready Time Uncertainty on Surface Metering

NASA has been developing and demonstrating new concepts and technologies for Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management capabilities under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project. One of the IADS capabilities in the ATD-2 project is surface metering enabled by a tactical surface scheduler to provide controllers with the pushback advisories for departures at gates. The tactical surface scheduler uses the estimated flight ready times provided by airlines, called Earliest Off-Block Times (EOBTs), as input to calculate the target off-block times for pushback advisories. However, the EOBTs are often inaccurate and deviate from the actual flight ready times, which may reduce the benefits of surface metering. In this paper, a linear regression model is developed to model the EOBT uncertainty distribution over time based on actual EOBT data collected at Charlotte airport. This EOBT model is integrated with a tactical surface scheduler and a fast-time simulation tool. To evaluate the impact of the EOBT accuracy on airport surface operations, fast-time simulations are implemented for selected traffic scenarios under different levels of modelled EOBT accuracy. The simulation results show that the EOBT uncertainty affects several performance metrics related to the surface metering, such as gate hold, taxi time reduction, and target takeoff time predictability, which in turn influences ATD-2's scheduler performance.

tactical surface scheduler↗

NASA NTRS1976

Laser range measurements using non-Gaussian pulse shapes

Many optical ranging systems currently use laser pulses of approximately Gaussian shape with widths of a few nanoseconds or less. The present paper shows that a substantial improvement in accuracy can be obtained for a given pulse length by means of laser ranging systems using conventional length (long) pulses with a sharp leading edge pulse distribution. The accuracy in such a case will improve roughly linearly with the signal strength. Order statistics is used to estimate the round-trip level travel time from the arrival time of the earliest photoelectron.

Ghigo, F. D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Masses of neutron stars in X-ray binary systems

Methods and assumptions used in determining masses of neutron stars in binary X-ray pulsar systems are discussed. The determination of the neutron star masses requires a knowledge of the orbital elements of the systems, which can be measured by tracking the pulse arrival times over a suitably long time interval. A method to estimate orbital inclination angle when the source exhibits X-ray eclipses is presented, in which the photospheric radius of the companion star in units of the orbital separation can be simply related by geometry to the inclination angle and eclipse angle. Probability distributions for 4 neutron star masses are presented, which have a 95% confidence limit.

Kelley, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Initial Results of Wyatt EIRP- The Ground Based Power and Ambiguity Function Monitor for P-Band Signals of Opportunity Sources

The Wideband Year-round AmbuguiTy-function Track-ing Effective Isotropic Radiated Power (WYATT EIRP)instrument is designed to support P-Band based Sig-nals of Opportunity (SoOp) remote sensing instrument.SoOp utilizes pre-existing non-cooperative microwavetransmitters as sources of illumination. This remotesensing method requires knowledge of the signals EIRP,position and ambugituty function’s shape.WYATT EIRP is designed to periodically generateEIRP measurements, ambuguity functions and transmit-ter elevation. It uses an array of RHCP and LHCPantennas, mounted on a rotating antenna pedestal togenerate EIRP measurements. A secondary observationantenna is placed to allow time difference of arrival mea-surements for transmitter elevation estimates. Both thepedestal and reference antenana are used to generateamituigyt fionctions. The pedestal will also be used tovalidate existing P-Band background noise temperaturesky maps. WYATT EIRP will be commissioned in thefirst quarter of 2024 and will be used to provide calibra-tion data to the upcoming spaceborne SigNals Of Op-portunity: P-Band Investigation (SNOOPI) instrument.

Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRS2015

Predicting Space Weather Effects on Close Approach Events

The NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team sends ephemeris data to the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) for conjunction assessment screening against the JSpOC high accuracy catalog and then assesses risk posed to protected assets from predicted close approaches. Since most spacecraft supported by the CARA team are located in LEO orbits, atmospheric drag is the primary source of state estimate uncertainty. Drag magnitude and uncertainty is directly governed by atmospheric density and thus space weather. At present the actual effect of space weather on atmospheric density cannot be accurately predicted because most atmospheric density models are empirical in nature, which do not perform well in prediction. The Jacchia-Bowman-HASDM 2009 (JBH09) atmospheric density model used at the JSpOC employs a solar storm active compensation feature that predicts storm sizes and arrival times and thus the resulting neutral density alterations. With this feature, estimation errors can occur in either direction (i.e., over- or under-estimation of density and thus drag). Although the exact effect of a solar storm on atmospheric drag cannot be determined, one can explore the effects of JBH09 model error on conjuncting objects' trajectories to determine if a conjunction is likely to become riskier, less risky, or pass unaffected. The CARA team has constructed a Space Weather Trade-Space tool that systematically alters the drag situation for the conjuncting objects and recalculates the probability of collision for each case to determine the range of possible effects on the collision risk. In addition to a review of the theory and the particulars of the tool, the different types of observed output will be explained, along with statistics of their frequency.

Space Weather↗

DOE OSTI2026

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ocean current patterns drive the worldwide colonization of eelgrass (Zostera marina)

Currents are unique drivers of oceanic phylogeography and thus determine the distribution of marine coastal species, along with past glaciations and sea-level changes. Here we reconstruct the worldwide colonization history of eelgrass (Zostera marina L.), the most widely distributed marine flowering plant or seagrass from its origin in the Northwest Pacific, based on nuclear and chloroplast genomes. We identified two divergent Pacific clades with evidence for admixture along the East Pacific coast. Two west-to-east (trans-Pacific) colonization events support the key role of the North Pacific Current. Time-calibrated nuclear and chloroplast phylogenies yielded concordant estimates of the arrival of Z. marina in the Atlantic through the Canadian Arctic, suggesting that eelgrass-based ecosystems, hotspots of biodiversity and carbon sequestration, have only been present there for ~243 ky (thousand years). Mediterranean populations were founded ~44 kya, while extant distributions along western and eastern Atlantic shores were founded at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (~19 kya), with at least one major refuge being the North Carolina region. The recent colonization and five- to sevenfold lower genomic diversity of the Atlantic compared to the Pacific populations raises concern and opportunity about how Atlantic eelgrass might respond to rapidly warming coastal oceans.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Practical Approach to Inertia Assessment: Analyzing New York's Grid Response to Real Events

The non-uniform distribution of inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as solar and wind energy leads to the formation of weakly coupled regions within the broader interconnection. This highlights the urgency of investigating regional dynamics. This paper proposes a practical framework for estimating regional inertia using actual event measurements from the New York (NY) region. The regional frequency is determined using measurement data from frequency disturbance recorders (FDRs) deployed across NY. The rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF) is estimated using a hybrid methodology that combines the benefits of both moving and non-moving window techniques. By utilizing the power mismatch value and the estimated RoCoF, various inertia metrics such as regional RoCoF, inertia arrival time, and inertia percentage relative to the interconnection inertia are calculated. The identified confirmed-events that took place between 2017–2022 in NY are used in the study. This assessment of inertia using real event data reveals the true behavior of the grid under stress. The results indicate that as the generation mix in NY evolves with the rise of IBRs, both the RoCoF levels and the regional inertia undergo significant changes.

Dulal, Saurav [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗

NASA NTRS1983

Seismic velocity structure of the lunar mantle

The recently completed set of seismic arrival times from the Apollo lunar seismic network are inverted to estimate the average seismic velocities in three sections of the lunar mantle: two for the upper mantle and one for the middle mantle. The method used is a variation of the linearized least squares inversion where the inversion is accomplished in steps. The estimated average velocities in the upper mantle decrease from Vp = 7.74 km/sec and Vs = 4.49 km/sec in the section above 270-km depth to Vp = 7.46 km/sec and Vs = 4.25 km/sec in the section between 270- and 500-km depth, confirming the earlier finding of negative gradients based on seismic amplitude variations. The average velocities in the middle mantle between the depths of 500 km and 1000 km of Vp = 8.26 km/sec and Vs = 4.65 km/sec are significantly higher than those in the upper mantle, contradicting earlier estimates based on more limited data. The higher velocities may suggest initial melting of the moon down to at least 1000-km depth.

Nakamura, Y.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Practical Event Location Estimation Algorithm for Power Transmission System Based on Triangulation and Oscillation Intensity

Event location in power systems is quite essential information for system operators to enhance control-room situational awareness capability. Therefore, it is of great importance to develop an event location estimation algorithm for transmission systems with high accuracy. With the development of wide-area measurement system (WAMS) such as FNET/GridEye, and the synchrophasor measurement devices (SMDs) such as frequency disturbance recorders (FDRs), the synchronous measurement data including frequency, voltage amplitude and phase angle can be collected and used for event location estimation. First, the phase angle and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) trajectories are respectively used for determining two sets of wave arrival time associated with each FDR. Then, a convolutional neural network (CNN) is utilized to determine the wave arrival order to select the more suitable set of wave arrival times for a given case and to perform corresponding modifications. Next, the oscillation intensity associated with each FDR is determined based on phase angle trajectories in the center of inertia (COI) coordinate system. Finally, the multiple criteria for event location estimation are represented. In conclusion, case studies and comparisons between the proposed and previous algorithms using actual and confirmed cases in U.S. power systems are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness and improvement of the proposed algorithm in practical applications.

frequency disturbance recorder (FDR)↗

NASA NTRS2010

Ultra-Wideband Time-Difference-of-Arrival High Resolution 3D Proximity Tracking System

This paper describes a research and development effort for a prototype ultra-wideband (UWB) tracking system that is currently under development at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The system is being studied for use in tracking of lunar./Mars rovers and astronauts during early exploration missions when satellite navigation systems are not available. U IATB impulse radio (UWB-IR) technology is exploited in the design and implementation of the prototype location and tracking system. A three-dimensional (3D) proximity tracking prototype design using commercially available UWB products is proposed to implement the Time-Difference- Of-Arrival (TDOA) tracking methodology in this research effort. The TDOA tracking algorithm is utilized for location estimation in the prototype system, not only to exploit the precise time resolution possible with UWB signals, but also to eliminate the need for synchronization between the transmitter and the receiver. Simulations show that the TDOA algorithm can achieve the fine tracking resolution with low noise TDOA estimates for close-in tracking. Field tests demonstrated that this prototype UWB TDOA High Resolution 3D Proximity Tracking System is feasible for providing positioning-awareness information in a 3D space to a robotic control system. This 3D tracking system is developed for a robotic control system in a facility called "Moonyard" at Honeywell Defense & System in Arizona under a Space Act Agreement.

Ni, Jianjun↗

NASA NTRS2019

High-precision x-ray timing of three millisecond pulsars with NICER: Stability estimates and comparison with radio

The Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) is an X-ray astrophysics payload on the International Space Station. It enables unprecedented high-precision timing of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) without the pulse broadening and delays due to dispersion and scattering within the interstellar medium that plague radio timing. We present initial timing results from a year of data on the MSPs PSR B1937+21 and PSR J0218+4232, and nine months of data on PSR B1821−24. NICER time-of-arrival uncertainties for the three pulsars are consistent with theoretical lower bounds and simulations based on their pulse shape templates and average source and background photon count rates. To estimate timing stability, we use the σz measure, which is based on the average of the cubic coefficients of polynomial fits to subsets of timing residuals. So far we are achieving timing stabilities σz≈3×10−14 for PSR B1937+21 and on the order of 10−12 for PSRs B1821−24 and J0218+4232. Within the span of our NICER data we do not yet see the characteristic break point in the slope of σz; detection of such a break would indicate that further improvement in the cumulative root-mean-square timing residual is limited by timing noise. We see this break point in our comparison radio data sets for PSR B1821−24 and PSR B1937+21 on timescales of >2 yr.

Pulsars↗

NASA NTRS2003

Analog Binaural Circuits for Detecting and Locating Leaks

Very-large-scale integrated (VLSI) analog binaural signal-processing circuits have been proposed for use in detecting and locating leaks that emit noise in the ultrasonic frequency range. These circuits would be designed to function even in the presence of intense lower-frequency background noise that could include sounds associated with flow and pumping. Each of the proposed circuits would include the approximate electronic equivalent of a right and a left cochlea plus correlator circuits. A pair of transducers (microphones or accelerometers), corresponding to right and left ears, would provide the inputs to their respective cochleas from different locations (e.g., from different positions along a pipe). The correlation circuits plus some additional external circuits would determine the difference between the times of arrival of a common leak sound at the two transducers. Then the distance along the pipe from either transducer to the leak could be estimated from the time difference and the speed of sound along the pipe. If three or more pairs of transducers and cochlear/correlator circuits were available and could suitably be positioned, it should be possible to locate a leak in three dimensions by use of sound propagating through air.

Hartley, Frank T.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Pyrocumulus Convection to Tree Mortality During the 2020 Creek Fire in California

Abstract This study investigated the sensitivity of pyrocumulonimbus (PyroCb) induced by the California Creek fire of 2020 to the amount and type of surface fuels, within the WRF‐SFIRE modeling system. Satellite data were used to derive fire arrival times to constrain fire progression, and to augment the fuel characterization with better estimates of combustible vegetation accounting for tree mortality. Machine learning was employed to classify standing dead vegetation from aerial imagery, which was then added as a custom fuel class along with the standard Anderson fuel categories. Simulations using this new fuel class produced a larger and more vigorous PyroCb than the control run, however, still under‐predicted the cloud top. Additional augmentation of fuel mass to represent the accumulation of dead vegetation on the forest floor further improved the simulations, demonstrating the efficacy of representing both dead standing and fallen vegetation to produce more realistic PyroCb and smoke simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1995

Energetic particles and coronal mass ejections in the high latitude heliosphere: Ulysses-LET observations

The COSPIN Low Energy Telescope (LET) onboard the Ulysses spacecraft measures protons, alphas and heavier ions at energies of approximately 1 to 50 MeV/n. Ulysses measurements offer favorable opportunities to study the effects of solar activity in the out-of-ecliptic regions of the heliosphere. Using LET data, we have investigated the properties of transient energetic ions at high heliographic latitudes when Ulysses was permanently immersed in high speed solar wind and magnetically connected to the Sun on open magnetic field lines. Recurrent increases in the fluxes of energetic ions at high heliographic latitudes at frequencies related to the solar rotation period were found to occur in association with co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs). Here we investigate fluxes of energetic particles that showed no relationship to ClRs. From the investigation of plasma and magnetic held data it is found that all of the transient high latitude particle events were associated with the passage of a coronal mass ejection (CME) over Ulysses. Enhancements in particle fluxes several days prior to the arrival of a CME, but with a significant time delay with respect to the estimated CME-onset at the Sun, were most probably associated with interplanetary shocks driven by fast CMEs. These particle events exhibit unusually high rho/alpha-ratios and are not observed for CMEs not driving a shock. However, not all CMEs that passed Ulysses were associated with a particle event. We find evidence that at high solar latitudes, solar flare particles cannot reach Ulysses on open magnetic field lines, but can reach the spacecraft if particles are injected into magnetic flux-ropes (CMEs) at the Sun. These findings are supported by soft X-ray observations from the Japanese Yohkoh-satellite.

Bothmer, V.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Advanced Systems for Monitoring Underwater Sounds

The term "Passive Acoustic Monitoring System" (PAMS) describes a developmental sensing-and-data-acquisition system for recording underwater sounds. The sounds (more precisely, digitized and preprocessed versions from acoustic transducers) are subsequently analyzed by a combination of data processing and interpretation to identify and/or, in some cases, to locate the sources of those sounds. PAMS was originally designed to locate the sources such as fish of species that one knows or seeks to identify. The PAMS unit could also be used to locate other sources, for example, marine life, human divers, and/or vessels. The underlying principles of passive acoustic sensing and analyzing acoustic-signal data in conjunction with temperature and salinity data are not new and not unique to PAMS. Part of the uniqueness of the PAMS design is that it is the first deep-sea instrumentation design to provide a capability for studying soniferous marine animals (especially fish) over the wide depth range described below. The uniqueness of PAMS also lies partly in a synergistic combination of advanced sensing, packaging, and data-processing design features with features adapted from proven marine instrumentation systems. This combination affords a versatility that enables adaptation to a variety of undersea missions using a variety of sensors. The interpretation of acoustic data can include visual inspection of power-spectrum plots for identification of spectral signatures of known biological species or artificial sources. Alternatively or in addition, data analysis could include determination of relative times of arrival of signals at different acoustic sensors arrayed at known locations. From these times of arrival, locations of acoustic sources (and errors in those locations) can be estimated. Estimates of relative locations of sources and sensors can be refined through analysis of the attenuation of sound in the intervening water in combination with water-temperature and salinity data acquired by instrumentation systems other than PAMS. A PAMS is packaged as a battery-powered unit, mated with external sensors, that can operate in the ocean at any depth from 2 m to 1 km. A PAMS includes a pressure housing, a deep-sea battery, a hydrophone (which is one of the mating external sensors), and an external monitor and keyboard box. In addition to acoustic transducers, external sensors can include temperature probes and, potentially, underwater cameras. The pressure housing contains a computer that includes a hard drive, DC-to- DC power converters, a post-amplifier board, a sound card, and a universal serial bus (USB) 4-port hub.

Lane, Michael↗

NASA NTRS1991

Potential flow applications to complex configurations

Recent advances in CFD methods have enabled the analytic calculation of the carriage loads for stores mounted on complex aircraft. The latest results have demonstrated excellent agreement with test data for the F-15 at M = 0.98. However, in a preliminary design environment, the necessity of generating and validating a Euler grid to fit the aircraft and store arrangement may not be feasible, particularly when effects of configuration changes are considered. For that reason alternative approaches which require less time to arrive at an answer deserve consideration. The paper presents the results of a study to determine if potential flow solutions can give acceptable estimates of store carriage loads at transonic speeds in a timely manner.

Cenko, A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Time Step Control for Multirate Infinitesimal Methods

Multirate methods have been used for decades to temporally evolve initial-value problems in which different components evolve on distinct time scales, and thus use of different step sizes for these components can result in increased computational efficiency. Generally, such methods select these different step sizes based on experimentation or stability considerations. For problems that evolve on a single time scale, adaptivity approaches that strive to control local temporal error are widely used to achieve numerical results of a desired accuracy with minimal computational effort, while alleviating the need for manual experimentation with different time step sizes. However, there is a notable gap in the publication record on the development of adaptive time step controllers for multirate methods. In this paper, we extend the single-rate controller work of Gustafsson [ACM Trans. Math. Software, 20 (1994), pp. 496-517] to the multirate method setting. Specifically, we develop controllers based on polynomial approximations to the principal error functions for both the "fast" and "slow" time scales within multirate infinitesimal (MRI) methods. We additionally investigate a variety of approaches for estimating the errors arising from each time scale within MRI methods. We then numerically evaluate the proposed multirate controllers and error estimation strategies on a range of multirate test problems, comparing their performance against an estimated optimal performance. Through this work, we combine the most performant of these approaches to arrive at a set of multirate adaptive time step controllers that robustly achieve desired solution accuracy with minimal computational effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗