Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “terrestrial relevance”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic

Rapid Arctic environmental change affects the entire Earth system as thawing permafrost ecosystems release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Understanding how much permafrost carbon will be released, over what time frame, and what the relative emissions of carbon dioxide and methane will be is key for understanding the impact on global climate. In addition, the response of vegetation in a warming climate has the potential to offset at least some of the accelerating feedback to the climate from permafrost carbon. Temperature, organic carbon, and ground ice are key regulators for determining the impact of permafrost ecosystems on the global carbon cycle. Together, these encompass services of permafrost relevant to global society as well as to the people living in the region and help to determine the landscape-level response of this region to a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Root traits as drivers of plant and ecosystem functioning: current understanding, pitfalls and future research needs

The effects of plants on the biosphere, atmosphere and geosphere are key determinants of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. However, despite substantial progress made regarding plant belowground components, we are still only beginning to explore the complex relationships between root traits and functions. Drawing on the literature in plant physiology, ecophysiology, ecology, agronomy and soil science, we reviewed 24 aspects of plant and ecosystem functioning and their relationships with a number of root system traits, including aspects of architecture, physiology, morphology, anatomy, chemistry, biomechanics and biotic interactions. Based on this assessment, we critically evaluated the current strengths and gaps in our knowledge, and identify future research challenges in the field of root ecology. Most importantly, we found that belowground traits with the broadest importance in plant and ecosystem functioning are not those most commonly measured. Also, the estimation of trait relative importance for functioning requires us to consider a more comprehensive range of functionally relevant traits from a diverse range of species, across environments and over time series. Finally, we also advocate that establishing causal hierarchical links among root traits will provide a hypothesis-based framework to identify the most parsimonious sets of traits with the strongest links on functions, and to link genotypes to plant and ecosystem functioning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthetic Digital Environments for Training Robots on Earth & Beyond [Poster]

Creating physical replicas of real-world environments to train robots for challenging outdoor tasks, whether constructing energy infrastructure like solar farms on Earth or on the Moon and Mars, is prohibitively expensive. This project will prototype a high-fidelity digital twin framework using NVIDIA IsaacSim to create realistic digital representations of robotic systems and their operating conditions, including varied terrains and environmental factors, allowing robots to learn and adapt in a faster, safer, and more affordable way to tackle unpredictable challenges in terrestrial and extraterrestrial applications. The Robotic Space Exploration (RoSE) Lab at Colorado School of Mines focused on the development and testing of synthetic digital twins to explore multi-physics interactions between robots and unstructured environments, with emphasis on lunar conditions such as deformable regolith, reduced gravity, and terrain-robot contact dynamics. The Industrialized Construction Innovation (ICI) team at National laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), simulated robotic apparatus and construction workflows using synthetic digital twins to inform real-world deployment, targeting application-driven use cases such as robotic construction of a scaled prototype of a photovoltaic energy infrastructure. Joint efforts between RoSE and ICI are continuing to explore how environment-scale multi-physics modeling and application-level robotic system simulation could be integrated to support robotic construction of energy infrastructure in highly unstructured environments, including scenarios relevant to the Lunar South Pole.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ejection of Dust From the Ocean as a Potential Source of Marine Ice Nucleating Particles

Oceans are, generally, relatively weak sources of ice nucleating particles (INPs). Thus, dust transported from terrestrial regions can dominate atmospheric INP concentrations even in remote marine regions. Studies of ocean-emitted INPs have focused upon sea spray aerosols containing biogenic species. Even though large concentrations of dust are transported over marine regions, resuspended dust has never been explicitly considered as another possible source of ocean-emitted INPs. Current models assume that deposited dust is not re-emitted from surface waters. Our laboratory studies of aerosol particles produced from coastal seawater and synthetic seawater doped with dust show that dust can indeed be ejected from water during bubble bursting. INP concentration measurements show these ejected dust particles retain ice nucleating activity. Doping synthetic seawater to simulate a strong dust deposition event produced INPs active at temperatures colder than -13 °C and INP concentrations one to two orders of magnitude greater than either lab sea spray or marine boundary layer measurements. The relevance of these laboratory findings is highlighted by single particle composition measurements along the Californian coast where at least 9% of dust particles were mixed with sea salt. Additionally, global modeling studies show that resuspension of dust from the ocean could exert the most impact over the Southern Ocean, where ocean-emitted INPs are thought to dominate atmospheric INP populations. More work characterizing the factors governing the resuspension of dust particles is required to understand the potential impact upon clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ultrafast X-ray Diffraction Study of a Shock-Compressed Iron Meteorite above 100 GPa

Natural kamacite samples (Fe92.5Ni7.5) from a fragment of the Gibeon meteorite were studied as a proxy material for terrestrial cores to examine phase transition kinetics under shock compression for a range of different pressures up to 140 GPa. In situ time-resolved X-ray diffraction (XRD) data were collected of a body-centered cubic (bcc) kamacite section that transforms to the high-pressure hexagonal close-packed (hcp) phase with sub-nanosecond temporal resolution. The coarse-grained crystal of kamacite rapidly transformed to highly oriented crystallites of the hcp phase at maximum compression. The hcp phase persisted for as long as 9.5 ns following shock release. Comparing the c/a ratio with previous static and dynamic work on Fe and Fe-rich Fe-Ni alloys, it was found that some shots exhibit a larger than ideal c/a ratio, up to nearly 1.65. This work represents the first time-resolved laser shock compression structural study of a natural iron meteorite, relevant for understanding the dynamic material properties of metallic planetary bodies during impact events and Earth’s core elasticity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A legacy of fire emerges from multiple disturbances to most shape microbial and nitrogen dynamics in a deciduous forest

Healthy forests are vital components of terrestrial ecosystems for their raw materials, high biodiversity, cycling of nutrients, and potential to sequester carbon. However, these ecosystems are sensitive to disturbances, and anthropogenic activities pose a serious threat to forest ecosystems globally. For example, human activities have dramatically altered multiple historical disturbance regimes in forests, including suppressing fire, increasing the density of large herbivores, and reducing the size of canopy gaps, among other disturbances. Such disturbances can have dramatic impacts on microbially-mediated forest soil functions, but more research is needed to determine the collective impacts of these disturbances. In this study, we investigated the interactive effects of disturbances, namely the legacies of fire, large herbivore densities, and canopy gap creation, in a deciduous forest soil. We determined that forest floor and mineral soil carbon and nitrogen pools were shaped by multiple disturbances, but fire was more influential than the other disturbances. The abundance of several functionally-relevant microbial taxa were significantly impacted by fire, and the effect was more pronounced in the mineral soil than in the forest floor. Together, these findings demonstrate that multiple disturbances, especially a legacy of fire, exerts long-term control over soil carbon, nitrogen and microbial dynamics in a deciduous forest system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Colloidal Quantum Dot Photovoltaics: Current Progress and Path to Gigawatt Scale Enabled by Smart Manufacturing

Colloidal quantum dots (QDs) have lately been pursued with intense vigor for optoelectronic applications such as photovoltaics (PV), flexible electronics, displays, mid-infrared photodetectors, lasers, and single-photon emitters. These nanometer-sized semiconducting crystals can be suitably mass-produced and size-tuned via cost-effective solution-based synthetic routes to operate in the quantum size confinement regime, endowing them with a wide array of exotic optical and electronic properties. While the first potential market entry could be in displays and in niche applications such as “internet-of-things”, ultimately, the technology has the potential to influence large-scale terrestrial power generation, because it is amenable to high-throughput synthesis from Earth-abundant materials and large-area solution-based coating techniques and can be air-stable. In this Review, we chronicle the recent advances that have propelled QD PV toward commercialization and highlight potential areas for further progress. We present an account of the material compositions being explored as QDs and their various benefits, major chemical passivation and doping strategies that have been developed to allay QD surface traps, and advanced device designs deployed to maximize charge extraction. We also discuss pathways to >20% efficient QD PV and describe recent advances in high-precision and autonomous synthesis of such materials. With recent demonstrations of scalable synthesis of high-quality QDs, smart manufacturing of QDs and QD solids, and fabrication of stable solar cells under ambient conditions, we suggest that the technology is on the road to achieving maturity and technological relevance and that gigawatt per year distributed panel production sites may be within reach.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems in the Northern and Eastern United States

Spring phenology of temperate ecosystems is highly sensitive to climate change, generating various impacts on many important terrestrial surface biophysical processes. Although various prognostic models relying on environmental variables of temperature and photoperiod have been developed for spring phenology, comprehensive ecosystem-scale evaluations over large landscapes and long-time periods remain lacking. Further, environmental variables other than temperature and photoperiod might also importantly constrain spring phenology modelling but remain under-investigation. To address these issues, we leveraged around 20-years datasets of environmental variables (from Daymet and GLDAS products) and the spring phenology metric (i.e., the greenup date) respectively derived from MODIS and PhenoCams across 108 sites in the Northern and Eastern United States. We firstly cross-compared MODIS-derived greenup date with official PhenoCams product with high accuracy (R 2 = 0.70). Then, we evaluated the three prognostic models (i.e., Growing Degree Date (GDD), Sequential (SEQ) and optimality-based (OPT)) with MODIS-derived spring phenology, assessed the model residuals and their associations with soil moisture, rainfall, and solar radiation, and revised the two photoperiod-relevant models (SEQ, OPT) by replacing the daylength variable with solar radiation, which was found to contribute the most to model residuals. We found that 1) all models demonstrated good capability in characterizing spring phenology, with OPT performing the best (RMSE = 8.04 ± 5.05 days), followed by SEQ (RMSE = 10.57 ± 7.77 days) and GDD (RMSE = 10.84 ± 8.42 days), 2) all models displayed high model residuals showing tight correlation with solar radiation (r = 0.45–0.75), and 3) the revised models that included solar radiation significantly performed better with an RMSE reduction by 22.08%. Such results are likely because solar radiation better constrains early growing season plant photosynthesis than photoperiod, supporting the hypothesis of spring phenology as an adaptive strategy to maximize photosynthetic carbon gain (approximated by solar radiation) while minimizing frost damage risk (captured by temperature). Collectively, our study here reveals the underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems, and suggests ways to improve spring phenology modelling and other phenology-related ecological processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Does mycorrhizal symbiosis determine the climate niche for Populus as a bioenergy feedstock?

This is the final technical and scientific report for DE-SC0016097, in which we investigated the role of symbiotic fungi in determining the climatic niche of trees. While microbes have long been viewed as agents of disease, recent explorations of the microbiome have led biologists to recognize that beneficial microbes play an equally vital role in maintaining the health of plants and animals. Perhaps the most ubiquitous form of beneficial interaction in terrestrial ecosystems occurs between fungi and plant roots. These fungus-root, or “mycorrhizal”, symbioses involve the reciprocal exchange of plant sugars for soil nutrients obtained by the fungus, such as nitrogen and phosphorous, which are critical for plant growth. It is known that mycorrhizal associations are widespread - occurring in approximately 90% of plant species - and diverse, with single plants able to associate simultaneously with over 100 species of fungi. Despite this, the ecological factors that control large-scale distribution and abundance of mycorrhizal symbioses are still poorly known, making it challenging to predict how mycorrhizal symbioses may change in future climate conditions or how these fungal communities might be manipulated to improve regional agriculture or forestry projects. In this research project we focused on a native North American tree with strong biofuel potential – Populus – to answer fundamental questions about the role of climate, soil environment, and mycorrhizal interactions in determining growth and competition in plant communities. Populus provides a unique opportunity for ecologically relevant experiments because of its widespread distribution across North America and its natural variability in mycorrhizal association types.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Voucher Opportunity 5-15: Independent Assessment of Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) Technologies and Practices for Enhanced Rock Weathering (CRADA 718) Abstract

Development of robust, transparent, and precise monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) technologies and practices is critical for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) project developers to comply with regulatory and permitting requirements, voluntary carbon market (VCM) protocols, and to ensure safety while reducing environmental impacts. Enhanced rock weathering (ERW)-based CDR technologies focus on removing atmospheric carbon through conversion into thermodynamically stable solid or aqueous carbonate forms for permanent storage (i.e., mineralization). This highly durable form of CDR enhances naturally occurring silicate rock weathering cycles by optimizing application of finely-ground silicate rock particles (i.e., from basalt) on terrestrial agricultural lands to accelerate natural silicate rock weathering and mineralization. Enhanced rock weathering may also provide improved crop yields and enhance soil health. A critical aspect for commercialization of these technologies is the development of MRV to quantify the net removal and durable storage of atmospheric CO 2 . For ERW systems, it is essential to accurately characterize the mineral feedstock selected for application to establish the baseline geochemical composition, mineral dissolution rates, and carbon removal potential of the feedstocks to estimate overall net removal. Given the difficulty with conducting MRV for ERW in diverse soil/environment types, over large application areas, and due to complex chemical reaction networks, this project will accelerate understanding towards consensus on best practices for MRV. The overall objectives of the proposed voucher project are to: 1) Characterize and analyze feedstock(s) intended for ERW field application by Lithos Carbon (“Voucher Recipient”/ “CRADA Participant”) to determine overall mineralization potential; 2) Facilitate knowledge transfer and documentation of experimental protocols, instrumentation, and other relevant best practices; and 3) Support the Voucher Recipient’s broader technology commercialization and ERW Research Facility development plans. This work will align with the Voucher Recipient’s MRV plans for field sites and build upon complementary efforts conducted by PNNL on mineralization MRV.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new phenomenological model to describe root-soil interactions based on percolation theory

In his paper on net primary productivity of terrestrial communities predicted from climatological data, Rosenzweig (1968) argued that variability in productivity is well accounted for by (evapo)-transpiration, and that water from transpiration is, on global scales, the most variable component in the photosynthesis reaction. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether variability in plant growth on local scales and within species is primarily related to transpiration under several scenarios including different terrain curvature, slope aspect, soil characteristics, and climate ranges. Here, we test the hypothesis that this relationship exists because root growth into the surface soil layers (0–2 m) tends to follow paths with minima in resistance, which in turn maximizes water flow and nutrient delivery rates that regulate growth. The set of all connected paths with individual pore-to-pore flow resistances less than a critical, percolating, value forms a cluster with mass fractal dimensionality, d f . We propose that roots follow paths through the 2D percolation cluster, defining the set of all optimal flow paths, making the 2D value of d f from percolation relevant to root fractal dimensionality. The tortuosity of such optimal paths as defined in percolation theory should then relate root length to root radial extent, linking the parameters of root tortuosity and plant productivity. Our analysis of large data sets across species implies that root radial extent and tree height are both proportional to cumulative transpiration until trees approached maximum height, and their growth rates are proportional to the transpiration rate, not to the moisture content. Local variations in tree height as functions of the variables investigated appear generally consistent with deduced variations in transpiration. Here this correlation is investigated more closely in the context of studies addressing individual tree species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Saccharomycotina yeasts defy long-standing macroecological patterns

The Saccharomycotina yeasts (“yeasts” hereafter) are a fungal clade of scientific, economic, and medical significance. Yeasts are highly ecologically diverse, found across a broad range of environments in every biome and continent on earth; however, little is known about what rules govern the macroecology of yeast species and their range limits in the wild. Here, we trained machine learning models on 12,816 terrestrial occurrence records and 96 environmental variables to infer global distribution maps at ~1 km2 resolution for 186 yeast species (~15% of described species from 75% of orders) and to test environmental drivers of yeast biogeography and macroecology. We found that predicted yeast diversity hotspots occur in mixed montane forests in temperate climates. Diversity in vegetation type and topography were some of the greatest predictors of yeast species richness, suggesting that microhabitats and environmental clines are key to yeast diversity. We further found that range limits in yeasts are significantly influenced by carbon niche breadth and range overlap with other yeast species, with carbon specialists and species in high-diversity environments exhibiting reduced geographic ranges. Finally, yeasts contravene many long-standing macroecological principles, including the latitudinal diversity gradient, temperature-dependent species richness, and a positive relationship between latitude and range size (Rapoport’s rule). These results unveil how the environment governs the global diversity and distribution of species in the yeast subphylum. These high-resolution models of yeast species distributions will facilitate the prediction of economically relevant and emerging pathogenic species under current and future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from: "Reply to ‘The challenge of defining effectively-no-snow’"

This repository contains the data and code associated with the paper titled "Reply to ‘The challenge of defining effectively-no-snow’" published in Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2026. In this reply, we argue that the 10th percentile of peak SWE (Snow Water Equivalent), which we propose in the original article, can be used as intended given it's a standardized, impact-based benchmark for comparing snow conditions across regions, not as a literal measure of snow absence. We present new evidence with SNOwpack TELemetry (SNOTEL) data showing that years meeting the threshold are overwhelmingly associated with subsequent drought (given United States Drought Monitor conditions), supporting its hydrologic and societal relevance. We conclude that while the distinction between "effectively no snow" and "zero snow" should be clearly communicated, the original definition remains appropriate for assessing impacts on snow-dependent water systems. The file code_nree_ML_reply_2026.Rmd contains the main processing scripts which analyze the SNOTEL data. Data from the US Drought Monitor was downloaded at: https://usdmdataservices using the Get Drought Severity Statistics By Area Percent' option, saved to the *_HUC4_delineated.csv files (Hydrologic Unit Code), which are labeled accordingly. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

EARTH SCIENCE > TERRESTRIAL HYDROSPHERE > SNOW/ICE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Direct evidence for the role of microbial community composition in the formation of soil organic matter composition and persistence

The largest terrestrial carbon sink on earth is soil carbon stocks. As the climate changes, the rate at which the Earth’s climate warms depends in part on the persistence of soil organic carbon. Microbial turnover forms the backbone of soil organic matter (SOM) formation and it has been recently proposed that SOM molecular complexity is a key driver of stability. Despite this, the links between microbial diversity, chemical complexity and biogeochemical nature of SOM remain missing. Here we tested the hypotheses that distinct microbial communities shape the composition of SOM, and microbial-derived SOM has distinct decomposition potential depending on its community of origin. We inoculated microbial communities of varying diversities into a model soil matrix amended with simple carbon (cellobiose) and measured the thermal stability of the resultant SOM. Using a Rock-Eval ® ramped thermal analysis, we found that microbial community composition drives the chemical fingerprint of soil carbon. While diversity was not a driver of SOM composition, bacteria-only communities lead to more thermally labile soil C pools than communities with bacteria and fungi. Our results provide direct evidence for a link between microbial community structure, SOM composition, and thermal stability. This evidence demonstrates the relevance of soil microorganisms in building persistent SOM stocks.

Domeignoz-Horta, Luiz A. (ORCID:0000000346186253)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterizing the diverse hydrogeology underlying rivers and estuaries using new floating transient electromagnetic methodology

We report the hydrogeology below large surface water features such as rivers and estuaries is universally under-informed at the long reach to basin scales (tens of km+). This challenge inhibits the accurate modeling of fresh/saline groundwater interfaces and groundwater/surface water exchange patterns at management-relevant spatial extents. Here we introduce a towed, floating transient electromagnetic (TEM) system (i.e. FloaTEM) for rapid (up to 15 km/h) high resolution electrical mapping of the subsurface below large water bodies to depths often a factor of 10 greater than other towed instruments. The novel FloaTEM system is demonstrated at a range of diverse 4th through 6th-order riverine settings across the United States including 1) the Farmington River, near Hartford, Connecticut; 2) the Upper Delaware River near Barryville, New York; 3) the Tallahatchie River near Shellmound, Mississippi; and, 4) the Eel River estuary, on Cape Cod, near Falmouth, Massachusetts. Airborne frequency-domain electromagnetic and land-based towed TEM data are also compared at the Tallahatchie River site, and streambed geologic scenarios are explored with forward modeling. A range of geologic structures and pore water salinity interfaces were identified. Process-based interpretation of the case study data indicated FloaTEM can resolve varied sediment-water interface materials, such as the accumulation of fines at the bottom of a reservoir and permeable sand/gravel riverbed sediments that focus groundwater discharge. Bedrock layers were mapped at several sites, and aquifer confining units were defined at comparable resolution to airborne methods. Terrestrial fresh groundwater discharge with flowpaths extending hundreds of meters from shore was also imaged below the Eel River estuary, improving on previous hydrogeological characterizations of that nutrient-rich coastal exchange zone. In summary, the novel FloaTEM system fills a critical gap in our ability to characterize the hydrogeology below surface water features and will support more accurate prediction of groundwater/surface water exchange dynamics and fresh-saline groundwater interfaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Topology-Dependent Performance of Free-Space Photonic Quantum Networks Under Noise

Photonic quantum communication enables secure and high-fidelity information transfer beyond classical limits, with direct relevance to emerging quantum networks operating in free-space environments. While physical-layer models of depolarizing noise, Gamma–Gamma turbulence statistics, entanglement swapping, and decoy-state QKD security bounds are individually well established, prior work typically treats these components in isolation or under fixed network assumptions. In this work, we develop a unified topology-aware analytical framework that simultaneously integrates free-space optical link budgets, turbulence-induced visibility degradation, depolarizing qubit noise, multi-hop entanglement cascade dynamics, teleportation fidelity thresholds, CHSH nonlocality certification, and asymptotic decoy-state secret key rate bounds across star, mesh, and ring graph structures. Rather than introducing new physical channel models, we demonstrate that identical physical links exhibit fundamentally different end-to-end performance once embedded within different network topologies. Mesh architectures minimize visibility cascade through hop-count reduction but incur quadratic hardware scaling. Star topologies minimize link count but concentrate noise and synchronization overhead at the hub. Ring configurations offer linear hardware scaling with multiplicative fidelity degradation. The results establish topology as a first-order design parameter in near-term free-space quantum networks operating without full quantum repeater infrastructures. While motivated by distributed multi-agent architectures, the framework applies broadly to terrestrial, airborne, and satellite-assisted photonic quantum communication systems.

QKD↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-series dissolved oxygen, other bigeochemically-relevant analytes, and pressure gradients associated with the manuscript “Dissolved oxygen sensor in an automated hyporheic sampling system reveals biogeochemical dynamics”

This dataset contains time-series data from a vertical profile within the bed and banks of the Columbia river near Richland, WA. Water was sampled through 3 small tubes embedded in the sediment at 50,100, and 200 cm below the sediment-water interface. The goal of this study was to observe the correlations between hydraulic drivers and biogeochemical responses. The results of this study are published in the manuscript “Dissolved oxygen sensor in an automated hyporheic sampling system reveals biogeochemical dynamics”. The file types included in the data package are all time-series spreadsheet data, including hydraulic head gradients, physical parameters (temperature, pressure, SpC (specific conductivity)), and biogeochemical parameters (dissolved oxygen, pH, NO3 (nitrate) and ORP (oxidation-reduction potential)).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Midwest US Croplands Determine Model Divergence in North American Carbon Fluxes

Large uncertainties in North American terrestrial carbon fluxes hinder regional climate projections. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), the essential tools for understanding continental-scale carbon cycle, diverge on whether temperate forests or croplands dominate carbon uptake in North America. Evidence from novel photosynthetic proxies, such as those based on chlorophyll fluorescence, has cast doubt on the “weak cropland, strong forest” carbon uptake patterns simulated by most TBMs. However, no systematic evaluation of TBMs has yet been attempted to pin down space-time patterns that are most consistent with regional CO 2 observational constraints. Here, we leverage atmospheric CO 2 observations and satellite-observed photosynthetic proxies to understand emergent space-time patterns in North American carbon fluxes from a large suite of TBMs and data-driven models. To do so, we evaluate how well the atmospheric signals resulting from carbon flux estimates reproduce the space-time variability in atmospheric CO 2 , as is observed by a network of continuous-monitoring towers over North America. Models with gross or net carbon fluxes that are consistent with the observed CO 2 variability share a salient feature of growing-season carbon uptake in Midwest US croplands. Conversely, the remaining models place most growing-season uptake in boreal or temperate forests. Differences in model explanatory power depend mainly on the simulated annual cycles of cropland uptake—especially, the timing of peak uptake—rather than the distribution of annual mean fluxes across biomes. Our results suggest that improved model representation of cropland phenology is crucial to robust, policy-relevant estimation of North American carbon exchange.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗